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The bet of “Everything on subscriptions” has not turned out as Microsoft expected

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Microsoft bought Activision for almost 70,000 million with a clear and undisguised idea: put the successive installments of ‘Call of Duty’ in Game Pass from day one. A strategy that, on paper, would boost the service’s subscribers and change the tides of the industry. Eighteen months later, perhaps the numbers have not turned out to be so favorable and the company is rectifying that strategy at full speed. The most curious thing? After some changes, users end up paying more for a service that offers less. Price changes. Six months ago, Game Pass Ultimate cost 17.99 euros per month and included from day 1 the latest ‘Call of Duty’ to date, ‘Black Ops 6’. In October 2025 Microsoft raised the price to 26.99 euros, 50% hitjust two weeks before the premiere of ‘Black Ops 7’. Now on April 21, 2026 announces which lowers it to 20.99, but without the future ‘Call of Duty’ on day one. PC Game Pass, in parallel, goes to 12.99 euros from the previous 14.99, although it is also above the 11.99 it cost before the last increase in price. Not so discount. Despite the apparent discount, the April subscriber pays three euros more than the subscriber in September of last year, but also renounces the main claim for the service. Future ‘Call of Duty’ will arrive on Ultimate and PC Game Pass “during the following holiday season, approximately one year after” their commercial release, while ‘Black Ops 6’ and ‘Black Ops 7’ remain in the catalog. Only half a year has passed after the total restructuring with the purchase of Activision… but with the rate somewhat more expensive than it was not too long ago. Why it didn’t work. The strategy made sense: if ‘Call of Duty’ is the most profitable franchise on the market, offering it on the first day within the subscription would make Game Pass an almost impossible proposition to refuse. The numbers did not match. A report last October estimated that Microsoft had missed out on $300 million in revenue by including ‘Black Ops 6’ on the service in 2024. That same report noted that 82% of the game’s full-price sales occurred on PlayStation 5. Things got worse with ‘Black Ops 7’. Due to its presence on Game Pass from day one, the game’s launch sales fell more than 60% in some marketsand in the United States it ended 2025 as the fifth best-selling title of the year, the lowest position for a franchise game in almost two decades. Subscription was cannibalizing sales without growing enough to make up for it. The accounts don’t work out. Perhaps Microsoft’s accounts collided with an indisputable reality: there is not enough Xbox to support the expenses of a blockbuster of the caliber of Call of Duty, mainly with subscriptions. In November 2025 Calculations placed Xbox Series X/S at 34.10 million units sold compared to 86.12 million for PS5. Of course, the difference grows quarter by quarter. Giving away a game on day one that still costs $69.99 on PlayStation meant giving up margin in the most profitable territory to monetize Call of Duty. What point are we at? Christopher Dring, editor of The Game Business, pointed that the decision has also been made due to an imminent launch: ‘Forza Horizon 6’ arrives on Xbox in May and is, right now, the third most desired game on Steam, with nearly 2.7 million people who have included it in their wishlists. It is a good asset, with its previous arrival on the console, to increase the subscriber base, and the price drop may interest more than one player with doubts. In Xataka | Game Pass is already an unsustainable investment: more than 2,000 euros for each generation of console and without anything owned

Ukraine has turned Russia into a fearsome air force

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In 1991, during the Gulf War, the United States discovered something uncomfortable: despite its total air superiority, it could not prevent Iraq from continuing to launch scud missiles from mobile platforms that appeared and disappeared in the desert. That frustration left a clear lesson For military strategists: in modern warfare, it is not enough to dominate the air, you must constantly adapt to an enemy that also learns. From questioned strength to real threat. During the first stages of the invasion of Ukraine, Russian aviation was perceived like a disappointment unable to achieve air superiority, which led many Western analysts to perhaps hastily underestimate it. However, with the passage of time, that vision has started to change disturbingly, especially in Europe, where aviation security experts have focused on something that is no longer an intuition: that the conflict has not weakened Russia, but rather the has forced to learn. Accumulated experience, system improvements and tactical adaptation have transformed a force that seemed limited into a much more dangerous and credible actor than it was before 2022. War as a laboratory. They remembered on Insider that, far from collapsing, Russian aviation has used Ukraine as a real training environment where pilots and crews have gained experience in high-intensity combat. Although it has lost aircraft, it has retained a large part of its qualified personnel and has compensated for those losses with sustained production of new aircraft, which has allowed it to maintain and even expand its fleet. This process has corrected one of its greatest historical weaknesses, the lack of flight hours, turning its pilots into more prepared fighters for complex scenarios. More reach, less risk. One of the most significant changes has been the evolution of his attack capacitywhich now increasingly relies on long-range weapons and systems that allow you to hit without directly exposing yourself. We are talking about advanced missiles, gliding bombs and remote attacks that have reduced the need to penetrate defended airspace, greatly complicating the enemy response. This way of fighting has not only proven to be effective in Ukraine, but also poses a worrying scenario. for future conflictswhere control of the air no longer depends solely on physically dominating it. Constant pressure from the air. They counted on ukrainian media that, in parallel, Russia has intensified its air campaign with massive and increasingly sophisticated use of drones and missiles, launching thousands of devices and perfecting saturation tactics to overwhelm defenses. Coordinated attacks, changes in flight patterns and the combination of different types of weapons have made it possible to maintain continuous pressure on infrastructure and the civilian population, generating not only material but also psychological wear. This strategy turns air into space permanent threatwhere the defense can never relax. A more complex threat. If you will, the result is a Russian air force that, although it still has structural limitations and does not match NATO in a direct confrontation, has become much scariest and most difficult to counteract. The combination of strengthened air defense, better coordination between systems and a more adaptive doctrine presents a scenario for its enemies in which achieving air superiority will be much more expensive and risky. In other words, a paradox has developed and is beginning to take hold, one where Ukraine has not only resisted Russian aviation, but, by forcing it to evolve, has contributed to turning it into a more sophisticated and persistent threat to the European military balance. Image | Alan Wilsonparfaits In Xataka | If fog was deadly in Ukraine’s winter, spring is offering Russia a key advantage: greenery In Xataka | Ukraine is close to what no one has achieved in a war: shooting down missiles for less than a million dollars

The world became obsessed with pistachios because of Dubai chocolate. Now the war has turned it into a trap

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The last few years have been anything but quiet for the pistachio industry. First ‘Dubai chocolate’ fever Its demand skyrocketed, straining supply chains and skyrocketing prices. Now the Iran conflict has struck a blow to its market, causing an earthquake whose consequences are still difficult to predict. For now there are already analysts warning that the fruit is beginning to be priced at highs that have not been seen for almost a decade. The big question is… And now what? What has happened? That the pistachio market is showing signs that it does not remain immune to the Middle East conflict, something that is otherwise expected if we take into account that Iran is one of the large world producers of this dried fruit. The alarm signal was raised by Bloomberg, which on Monday warned that the conflict is already affecting the price of pistachios in the markets. Their analysis is based on measurements from Expana Markets, a British firm specialized in the agri-food sector, which assures that in March the pound of pistachios reached $4.57the highest value since May 2018. Is it important? Yes. The pistachio market is very broad, it moves billions and it is supplied from more suppliers than Iran, so Expana’s data should be taken as a clue. Even so, they are interesting for their context. The pistachio had already experienced a price increase in recent years, driven by its popularization in the the drinks and food in general and especially for the enormous success of Dubai chocolate, a sweet made with cocoa and pistachios. After TikTok was filled with viral videos about its tablets, the price of grain skyrocketed: Bloomberg estimates that between the end of 2023 and 2025, Expana’s reference value for the US rose 30%. Are there more indicators? Yes. In Spain we have the platform data Pistachio Prowhich shows the increase in prices that the different varieties of grain have experienced in recent years in the Lonja de Albacete. A few months ago, in fact, the website informed that the price of Kerman-type grain had reached a “historical record” in both conventional and organic grains. Globally, a year ago Financial Times I already warned that Dubai chocolate was straining global pistachio supplies, driving up prices. Does the war in Iran have that much influence now? Yes. And for several reasons. The main one is that Iran does not occupy just any place on the world pistachio map. Although his weight is nowhere near what it was a few decades ago, when he hoarded good part of global production, the Islamic Republic continues to be the second largest breadwinner on the planet, only behind the United States. USDA estimates in fact indicated that during the 2025/2026 season its production would be around 200,000 metric tons, 18% of world production. They are 80,000 tons more than the third country by volume, Türkiye, and 160,000 tons more than the contribution of the entire EU. Some analysts it’s been several weeks warning that Iranian crops may be affected by the impact of the war on energy and water supplies for irrigation, in addition to problems with infrastructure. This is without, of course, taking into account the blow that the conflict has dealt to maritime traffic and the entire logistics chain. Some voices even have slipped in which the Iranian pistachio industry has been directly punished by the bombings. Are there more factors? The answer is once again affirmative. The war has tightened the rope, but the reality is that the pistachio trade was not going through its best moment in Iran. The industry has not been immune to the sanctions and geopolitical tensions that preceded the attack launched by the US and Israel on February 28. Neither, remember Bloombergto the repression with which Tehran responded to the protests internal. Even the harvest would have been lower than expected. All these factors also impact the supply of the fruit. “Pistachios are undoubtedly sensitive to disruptions in the Middle East, given the region’s role as a producer, transit hub and destination,” warns Nick Moss of Expana Markets. Tehran is also a key supplier of pistachio to the gigantic Indian market, which has now seen its supply chains affected, like other nations. “The war has led shipping companies to cancel all new reservations from March 2 for shipments destined for the Middle East,” duck Gyana Ranjan Das, from Grown Point. Does it only affect Iran? At all. If the war in Ukraine in 2022 and that in Iran now demonstrated anything, it is that the effect of bombs and drones is still felt in the countries where the battles are fought, but the disruptions they generate extend to markets and economies around the world. Iranian farmers are not the only ones affected by the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz is key to global shipping oil and ureaso its blockage directly affects the supply (and therefore the costs) of two essential inputs for farmers: fuel and fertilizer. Although there are those who believe that US producers will be the big beneficiaries, in recent weeks media such as Associated Press (AP) or Los Angeles Times They have interviewed California farmers who acknowledge that they have also been harmed by the conflict. one of them assured have merchandise worth five million dollars blocked on ships, fruits that under normal conditions would have already arrived in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. An expectant market. Surely that is the adjective that best defines the current state of the world pistachio market. Expectant. And not only because the second largest producer on the planet is at the center of a conflict that is currently hanging on a very delicate truce. After years marked by increased demand, the sector faces a potential increase in costs, a rise in prices, a decrease in supply and a strangulation of trade. “Even for buyers who do not normally source directly or indirectly from Iran, these supply restrictions could lead to increased competition for stock available elsewhere,” … Read more

We have turned WhatsApp into an “emotional pacifier”. And science warns that it is making us more fragile

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A message sent, a double check blue and, suddenly, silence. In that period of time, which can last minutes or days, the stomach shrinks. The immediate reaction for many is instinctive: unlock the screen of the smartphoneimmersing yourself in social media, sending looping messages seeking solace. We have turned our devices into an “emotional pacifier” to calm the anxiety of “not knowing.” In an era where hyperconnection promises us instant answers, science and psychology issue a clear warning: our inability to tolerate uncertainty is making us increasingly fragile. The brain in the face of chaos. To understand what happens to us, we have to look at our biology. As psychologist Regina López Riego explainsour brain is evolutionarily designed to look for patterns and make sense of everything around us. “This was key to our survival as a species: identifying threats and anticipating dangers,” he says. However, in today’s world, that need for certainty translates into constant suffering. The problem is that we live in a universe governed by entropy. From the team of Nalu Psychology remember thatbased on chaos theory and thermodynamics, systems tend toward disorder. “The future is uncertain and, one way or another, we deal with it as best we can,” they explain. When changes threaten, fear takes center stage, alerting us to possible danger. To mitigate that fear, we resort to a patch: control. However, it is a trap. The brain processes the symptoms of anxiety in the same way that it relates to uncertainty, releasing large amounts of norepinephrine that affect our nervous system. The more we try to tie down the future, the more discomfort we generate. The trap of overthinking. When the mind has no data, it invents it. The psychologist Marta Valle In his blog he explains that overthinking not as a lack of intelligence, but as a failed protection mechanism born of fear of error and low tolerance for uncertainty. It manifests itself in two ways: ruminating on the past or worrying in anticipation about the future. “You think that if you think about it enough, you will avoid a problem,” he details, but the end result is paralysis, insomnia and disconnection from the present. Experts from Harvard Mental Health Services (CAMHS) They have a name for this phenomenon: “toxic time travel.” Dr. Rue Wilson, a psychologist at this institution, describes how we try to feel in control by imagining different outcomes. “We get stuck ruminating, overwhelmed by ‘what ifs,’ and disconnected from the present, which is where we really have the most certainty.” Feed a bigger monster. This loop ends in what psychologist Laura Marín defines as generalized anxiety disorder (GAD)where concern is constant and fueled by overestimating the risks. Marín illustrates this with a clear example: two women, Alicia and Brenda, undergo a medical test. While Alicia asks whatever is necessary and continues with her daily life, Brenda compulsively searches for information on the Internet and needs her partner to continually reassure her. It is the so-called “reinsurance search”. Checking emails, postponing decisions or constantly asking for opinions are strategies that give false relief in the short term, but in the long run make us unable to tolerate the slightest doubt. The cell phone as an escape route. The need to escape from uncertainty has found in smartphones your best ally, but at a high cost for mental health. Rigorous research supports this claim. In a couple of published studies in the scientific journal Science Direct (led by Jon D. Elhai and colleagues in 2017), it was demonstrated through systematic reviews that the severity of depression and anxiety are strongly linked to problematic mobile phone use. One of the most revealing findings of Elhai’s research differentiates between “social” use of the phone (messaging, networks) and “process” use (consumption of news, entertainment, scroll passive). The study found that anxiety is much more related to process use than social use. That is, people with anxiety use the non-social functions of their devices as an avoidance mechanism (such as doomscrolling or addictive consumption of news) to avoid facing stress, this “use of process” being the direct bridge to mobile addiction. In fact, Dr. Leigh W. Jerome warns precisely about this habit. In the face of global chaos, doomscrolling It does not prepare us for the future, but “can cause headaches, muscle tension, high blood pressure, and difficulty sleeping.” Leon Garber, mental health counselor, adds a vital reflection on compulsive doubt avoidance: “Avoidance, in and of itself, is not negative (…) but imagine how many missed opportunities for growth or connection, over time, add up to a lost relationship.” Garber points out that even therapy has a limit if the patient is only seeking definitive answers. “We have to learn to live with uncertainty. Fundamentally, we have to learn to live,” he says. The trap of the hyperconnected world. The desire for certainties not only affects the individual, but shapes our society. An analysis published in The Conversation reminds us thatAccording to Maslow’s pyramid, security is a primary need. However, the obsession with eliminating all risks has a dark side. “There are desires that should not be fulfilled and that of radical security is a desire that can never and should never be satisfied,” the article underlines. Trying to control everything, whether through algorithms, surveillance cameras or the transfer of freedoms, strips us of our humanity and leads us to voluntary servitude. Instead of delegating control to technology to avoid panic, experts advocate a “pedagogy of responsibility”, appealing to the values ​​of Kant and Rousseau, where we assume that zero risk does not exist. How to inhabit the void. Since uncertainty is inevitable, the solution is not to find all the answers, but to change our relationship with the questions. According to institutions such as Harvard CAMHS and diverse psychology professionalsthere are four keys to navigate the uncontrollable: Focus on what you control: challenge the illusion of absolute certainty. If you lose your job, you can’t control when you’ll be hired, but you … Read more

the one who has turned war into the most useless war in history

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In modern conflicts, the cost of operating an advanced air force can easily exceed the hundreds of millions daily, especially when they intervene clatest generation acesin-flight refueling and precision guided munition. Added to this is that some key systems, as strategic radars or early warning aircraft, require years to manufacture and they have no substitutes immediate. In this context, there are wars in which attrition is not measured only in territory, but in how much time can be held that rhythm before the accounts stop adding up. In Iran, for example, they had been shot. A show of force. The United States’ Operation Epic Fury on Iran began with the idea of ​​a rapid and controlled campaign, but very soon it revealed his true face after episodes such as the last downing of the F-15E and the complex rescue operation that has followed him, where the United States has had to deploy multiple media and take additional losses even destroying their own equipment to avoid capture. These types of incidents have shown from the beginning that the conflict was far from being surgical and that the level of operational risk was much older than expected. As the days progressed, the narrative of technological superiority began to take hold.face reality of a saturated, chaotic and increasingly expensive environment to sustain. Military wear. The accumulated figures show a significant wear on key platforms, from fighters like the F-15E or the A-10 to critical assets such as early warning aircraft and tankers, in addition to dozens of downed drones. Especially worrying for Americans has been the impact in support systems such as advanced radars or command infrastructures, the loss of which not only has a high economic cost, but also weakens operational capacity future in other strategic scenarios. Plus: added to this are errors such as friendly fire episodes and the vulnerability of apparently secure bases, which reinforces the idea that the campaign not only consumes resources, but also erodes capabilities that are difficult to replace. The number that explains everything. However, the real turning point is not only on the battlefield, but in the accounts: the war has reached a spending rate close to the 1 billion dollars a day only in air operations, a nonsense that shoots the total cost above of the 280,000 million in just 40 days. Add to this tens of billions in ammunition, damage to bases, loss of aircraft and a devastating impact in energy infrastructure key to the Gulf, the same ones that have paralyzed part of global supply and raised the bill even more. The result is an extraordinarily expensive and useless war, possibly the most economically, because in a few weeks a level of expenditure and destruction has been reached that in other conflicts took years, and that is unprecedented. Not only that. A war that, despite all this deployment, has not achieved any of your strategic objectivesbecoming an extreme example of imbalance between investment and results. Overflowing the military field. The impact is not limited to the military: attacks on refineriesgas plants, export terminals and industrial centers have turned the conflict into a regional economic crisis with global effectsfrom energy to inflation. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has amplified the damageaffecting a substantial part of the world’s oil and gas supply, while sectors such as aluminum, logistics and transportation have suffered multi-million dollar losses. In parallel, the need to repair critical infrastructure and replace scarce equipment adds additional pressure that extends the cost far beyond the conflict itself. The ceasefire: more economics than strategy. In this context, the ultimatum issued by Trump ensuring that he was going to end an entire civilization and his rear reverse A few hours before the deadline, they take on a new meaning: more than a purely strategic decision, the ceasefire seems to be understood as a response to a dynamic unbearable and unsustainable. International pressure, nervousness in the markets and fear of a total escalation coincided with a reality that is difficult to ignore: each additional day of war multiplied an already overflowing cost without bringing victory closer. Thus, the last minute break Not only has it avoided a further escalation, but it has exposed the logic that has ended up prevailing: in this war, the problem was not how to win, but how much more could one continue paying for not doing so. Image | The White House Egyosint In Xataka | Someone has analyzed the coordinates of the rescue of the pilot in Iran: not only do they not add up, they point to a very different US mission In Xataka | Iran has found a hole in Israel’s shield: turning a missile into an explosive “storm” in full descent

Neither drones nor missiles nor AI, the war in Ukraine has turned a vehicle from 1950 into a key piece: the M113

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Some of the most produced military vehicles in history exceed 80,000 units manufactured and remain in service in dozens of countries decades after their design. In many cases, their longevity is not due to their power, but to something much simpler: that they simply work, are easy to repair, and never completely disappear. An unexpected veteran. While the algorithms and drones freelancers starred on all the covers of war innovationsin recent times the war in Ukraine has turned in key piece to a vehicle from the 1950s as it was the M113and that says much more about the conflict than any next-generation system. On a battlefield dominated by advanced technology, this armored transport has resurfaced not because it is the most powerful, but because it fits better than anyone else in a war of attrition where the important thing is not sophistication, but the ability to resist, move and continue operating day after day. Simple wins. The M113 was designed for another timebut its qualities (mobility, mechanical simplicity and ease of production) make it have converted surprisingly effective in Ukraine. The reason: in an environment saturated with drones and artillery, where any vehicle can be destroyed in seconds, the key is not so much to survive everything as to be able to be repaired quickly and return to the front. Its ability to operate off-road, transport troops or even drones and adapt with improvised protections makes it a versatile tool in a conflict where conditions are constantly changing. Drones and the rules. The truth is that the proliferation of drones has reduced the usefulness of many traditional systems, including heavy tanks, forcing both sides to rethink how they move and fight. In this context, the M113 does not stand out for its weapons, but for its logistical function: carry soldiers, equipment or drones to forward positions. War, from that perspective, is no longer decided so much by direct fire, but by who manages to best position their resources in an environment monitored from the air, and there this vehicle fits perfectly. Russian “Giga Turtle” captured by Ukrainians Meanwhile, Russia adapts in its own way. On the other side of the front, in recent weeks Russia has attempted to respond with radically different solutions, such as the return of called “giga turtle”in essence, over-armored versions of tanks designed to resist drone attacks. Huge and slow, these machines prioritize protection over mobility, making them easier targets despite their toughness. His reappearance reflects the same conclusion that has been imposed on the battlefield: vehicles are still necessary, but they must adapt to a constant threat from the air. War of attrition and quantity. Ultimately, the success of the M113 It also has to do with something much more basic: that there is a glarge amount of stock available for these models. Thousands of units produced over decades allow Ukraine to quickly replace losses in a war where attrition is brutal. In other words, compared to more expensive and scarce modern systems, this vehicle offers something essential for the fight: continuity. In an extremely slow conflict that is already measured in years, it is not whoever has the most advanced weapon who wins, but whoever can continue fighting the longest. The real change is conceptual. If you like, all this points to a deeper conclusion: the war in Ukraine is not necessarily rewarding the newest, but rather the most useful in an extreme context. AND the M113 symbolizes this change like few others, where cutting-edge technology coexists with solutions from another era that they still work because they respond better to the real needs of combat. In a scenario dominated by drones, sensors and constant fire, the key is not so much to reinvent warfare, but to adapt to it, even if that means returning to vehicles designed more than half a century ago. Image | Armed Forces In Xataka | While everyone was looking at Iran, a drone has made a hole so big that it seems impossible to cover it: the one in the roof of Chernobyl In Xataka | Russia is building its largest warship in the Black Sea. You know it, we know it and the Ukrainian drones know it

Each new AI model is the best ever until the next one arrives. Anthropic and OpenAI have turned that into a business

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It doesn’t matter what technological product we are talking about, because both the product and how it is sold to you matters. And here making promises and generating expectations is the classic strategy. The next processor is going to be more powerful, the next smartphone is going to take better photos… and of course, the next AI model is going to be (much) better. We are seeing that message constantly in the AI ​​segment, but now it is going further. Anthropic and a curious leak. A group of security researchers they detected a few days ago 3,000 unpublished documents in an accessible Anthropic database. They included a draft of the blog entry that corresponded to the theoretical launch of their next AI model. The striking thing is not so much the filtration itself (whether intentional or not), but what those documents reveal. Mythos goes beyond mere evolution. Or at least that’s what that leaked draft seems to reveal. It describes a model called Claude Mythos—also called Capybara—which would not be a simple improvement on Claude Opus, but would be a level above it. The document says that this model is “bigger and smarter than our Opus models, which until now were the most powerful.” Anthropic signs up for hype. According to this leak, the benchmark scores would be notably higher than those of Opus 4.6 in programming, reasoning and cybersecurity. At Anthropic have ended up confirming the existence of this development, and have described it as “a level change” and “the most capable model we have created to date.” It’s not too surprising a phrase, because it’s basically the same thing they’ve been saying about every new model they’ve released. And even they are scared. In fact, what is surprising in that draft is not the message that it is better, but the warnings that accompany that future presentation. Thus, Anthropic describes Mythos as “currently far ahead of any other AI model in cybersecurity capabilities.” In fact, they warn that this may be the beginning of “an imminent wave of models that can exploit vulnerabilities in ways that far exceed the efforts of the defenders.” Or what is the same: Mythos could be a extraordinary tool for cyber attackers. The actual launch plan is to first offer Mythos to cybersecurity organizations to prepare. We will see if that gives an advantage, if Mythos meets expectations. OpenAI also makes a move. Both Anthropic and OpenAI have been moving in parallel for some time, and now they have done so again. At OpenAI they are preparing their new AI model, codenamed “Spud” (“potato”). Hardly anything is known about him beyond the fact that his pre-training phase has been completed. More relevant is that this model appears just when At OpenAI they have decided to be less OpenAI and more Anthropic. They have abandoned Sora and they are redirecting resources to regain ground where they are losing it. That is, in companies. But the count is not infinite.. These days, users of Claude’s $100 and $200 per month plans began to notice how they used up their limits and token quotas in less than an hour during their work hours. What is happening is that Anthropic is training more powerful but much more expensive models to use and that makes it difficult to serve them. Demand is growing faster than the efficiency improvements that are coming, so according to some analysts, AI companies are adjusting those quotas and in a sense making Their models behave as if they were “dumber” to save. It’s something we’ve seen in the past. hedonic adaptation. The psychologists called hedonic adaptation to the phenomenon by which humans quickly become accustomed to any level of experience, good or bad, and return to our starting emotional state. When applied to AI, this phenomenon explains that this model that seemed miraculous to us six months ago today seems slow and limited, and what six months ago seemed like science fiction is today the minimum we ask of companies. Anthropic and OpenAI have not invented the concept, but they have integrated it into their roadmaps like other technology companies in the past. We mentioned it before: they not only sell what they have today, but (more importantly) what they will have tomorrow. Mythos will be brutal and very expensive. Anthropic’s draft warns that Mythos will be “very expensive to serve and will be very expensive for our customers.” That points to two possibilities. The first is that only users of the Max plans can access some consultations with this model. The second, that a subscription appears even more expensive than that 200 dollars a month so we can leverage Mythos with more leeway. We already had a free AI, a basic paid AI and a high-end paid AI. Now we will also have super high-end AI. In Xataka | The hard landing of OpenAI: after years at the forefront, it is discovering that AI is not won only with memes and hype

Iran has turned Hormuz into the entrance to a VIP nightclub. And Spain enters the guest list and the US stays at the door

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Spain has never been a great military power, but it has been a key player in energy routes. In fact, more than 60% of the gas Its consumption arrives by ship and its refineries are among the most important in southern Europe. Furthermore, its geographical position makes it a natural bridge between Africa, America and the Mediterranean, which means that any change in global energy flows ends up impacting, directly or indirectly, its economy. Iran as oil watchdog. what is happening in Hormuz At this moment it breaks one of the great premises of the global order of recent decades. The naval superiority of the United States was assumed to be overwhelming, backed by a navy that far surpasses the rest of the world in capacity and deployment, and which guaranteed the security of the great sea routes. However, Iran has shown that it is not necessary to dominate the oceans to control a key point. It is enough to have the ability to deny access in a small space, combine asymmetric military pressure and assume the cost of the conflict. The result is that Washington, despite its power, is tied hand and foot and cannot reopen the strait without escalating the war to levels much more dangerous. This turns Iran into a kind of “watchdog” for world oil, capable of deciding who passes and who doesn’tand marks a paradigm shift where the control of strategic bottlenecks outweighs global military supremacy. A tight as a VIP nightclub. Yes, because Iran has transformed the Strait of Hormuz into something more than an energetic chokepoint: has converted it in a business which works in the same way as the door of an exclusive nightclub, that is, a space where not just anyone enters, but only those who are on the list. And there Spain appears among the guests (what have confirmed explicitly) and, of course, the “hostile ships” of the United States and Israel are clearly banned. In other words, they have established a system selective access that redefines control of one of the most critical routes on the planet and turns geopolitics into a direct filter on who can trade and who cannot. Spain and its no to war. Impossible to ignore the government statement Spanish with Iran’s latest move. Pedro Sánchez’s refusal to align with Donald Trump’s strategy broke the dynamic common in Europe. Spain blocked the use from its bases, refused to actively participate in the operation, and turned “no to war” into foreign policy. That movement, which seemed isolated, began to influence other countries. Germany and Italy, for their part, they took distance. And Europe stopped moving as a bloc, showing that there is room to challenge Washington without completely breaking the alliance. The “prize”. It remains to be seen if in the end it will be “poisoned”, but the truth is that this Spanish positioning has had immediate consequences. Iran has shown a special disposition towards Spain, facilitating ship transit linked to their country in a context in which the passage is practically closed for many others. This preferential treatment turns neutrality into an operational advantage tangible, but also introduces a delicate dimension. Spain gains room for maneuver in the short term, but at the cost of exposing itself to criticism and pressure from its allies, critics who may interpret such access as a dangerous concession in a highly polarized environment. The Iranian model that no one saw coming. I was counting this morning the financial times that Tehran is designing a maritime traffic control system much more structured than it might seem. Transit no longer depends solely on navigation, but of a process which combines diplomacy, supervision and, in some cases, high payments to guarantee passage. As? Apparently, the ships must coordinate with the Iranian authorities, undergo verifications and follow specific routes under surveillance. This “handmade” model that few saw coming in the middle of the war introduces a de facto “toll” that transforms the strait into an economic and political tool at the same time, reinforcing Iran’s ability to influence global trade. A global bottleneck. The impact of this change is enormous if we take into account the importance of the Strait of Hormuz. How have we been countingit passes approximately one fifth of world oil, as well as gas and essential raw materials for the global economy. The war has reduced traffic drastically, has increased attacks on ships and has generated a situation of great uncertainty for thousands of sailors. What was once a predictable route has become a high risk spacewith immediate consequences on energy prices and market stability. From highway to guarded corridor. They explained in The Guardian through a visual analysis that the functioning of the strait has also changed in operational terms. The usual routes have been replaced by controlled runners closer to the Iranian coast, where authorities can directly supervise transiting ships. This system allows almost individualized traffic management, reducing the volume of passage and increasing control on each vessel. The result is that Hormuz has stopped behaving as an international maritime highway and begins to function as a regulated access, where each movement depends on prior authorization. Consequences. In the long term, this model opens the door for Iran to obtain important income and consolidate a tool for strategic pressure on world trade. However, also raises legal issues and diplomatic tensions significant, since it questions basic principles of international maritime law. Given this scenario, other countries could accelerate the search for alternatives, such as new energy infrastructure or different trade routes (China and Russia they are already doing it). If this process is consolidated, the result could be a system fragmentation global, where access to key resources depends increasingly on political decisions and less on norms shared for years. Image | eutrophication&hypoxiaNARA, US Navy, اری In Xataka | Israel has found the secret route of the war in Ukraine: it has just bombed the “Uber of shahed drones” between Russia and Iran In Xataka | Iran is … Read more

The “bottom of the barrel” was the cheapest waste of the oil industry. The war in Iran has just turned it into an unaffordable luxury

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Historically, the fuel oil has been known in the oil industry as the “bottom of the barrel.” Typically cheap and underappreciated, this byproduct comes from the bottom of distillation towers, the equipment where crude oil is heated and split into multiple products. In fact, very often, this fuel cost less than a barrel of crude oil, and refineries sold it at a loss as it was a simple remnant of the process necessary to manufacture high-value products such as diesel. However, as expert Javier Blas warns in your column for Bloombergthe Iran war has turned the industry upside down. That waste that no one wanted has become an ultra-expensive raw material overnight, which is bad news for the global economy. Despite being overshadowed by other distillates, the fuel oil plays an immense role in the modern world, driving container ships that act as the workhorses of globalization. The breakup of a market at the limit. In the current conflict, all eyes they are set in the rises and falls of crude oil. However, the real drama is hidden in the physical maritime bunker markets, where the traditional relationship between the price of crude oil and refined products has been completely broken. With crude oil hovering around $100, the fuel oil It shouldn’t be much more expensive. In reality, it is trading at $140 a barrel in Singapore and almost $160 in the Emirati port of Fujairah. A report of Lloyd’s List explains that the average price of the fuel oil of very low sulfur content (VLSFO) in the 20 main bunkering centers reached $1,005 per ton, double its pre-war cost and the highest figure since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. For his part, analyst Clyde Russell warns in his column Reuters that, while crude oil futures are confident of a solution, prices for physical cargoes are sending signals of an impending crisis and a supply chain that is buckling under pressure. The missing link. The key to this specific crisis lies in geography and geology. As Blas points outrefineries in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates produce 20% of all fuel oil sold internationally. Added to this is a crucial geological factor: the crude oil from the Persian Gulf generates much more fuel oil than that of other regions. For example, when distilling a barrel of Saudi flagship crude oil (Arab Light), approximately 50% of what comes out is residue for fuel oil, compared to 33% left by US WTI crude oil. This explains why the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a death trap specifically for this byproduct. The logistical panic. The real urgency is no longer just the price, but physical availability. The shipping industry has raised the alarm because supplies are critically low in Singapore and Fujairah, two of the world’s most important bunkering hubs. “If we do nothing, we risk ending up with dry supply points in Asia,” Vincent Clerc sharply warnedCEO of shipping giant Maersk. To avoid collapse, Maersk needs to be proactive and is transporting its own fuel around the globe to have the right amount in the right place, an unprecedented challenge that Clerc compares to the logistical juggle experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic. On a day-to-day basis, the charter market is paralyzed. Scott Bergeron, CEO of Oldendorff Carriers, confess to Lloyd’s List that there are problems getting fuel quotes, and that “availability for April is a big question mark.” The operational consequences will be drastic: Global slowing: Ships will reduce their speed to conserve fuel. Port congestion: Massive congestion is expected in ports that still have reserves. Accelerated scrapping: Older and inefficient fleets could be forced to be scrapped due to the enormous costs. Furthermore, according to Clyde Russell in your column for ReutersAsian refiners are cutting production, and countries like South Korea could restrict exports, pushing dependent nations like New Zealand into rationing measures. The environmental dilemma. This severe lack of supply is even putting pressure on climate regulations. Given the suffocating lack of distillates, The Maritime Executive details that the regulators could be tempted to temporarily suspend IMO 2020 emissions regulations. This would allow ships to return to burning heavy fuel oil (HSFO) widely, freeing up ingredients for other critical sectors. Meanwhile, ships already equipped with scrubbers (scrubbers) can still legally burn the cheaper HSFO. As the price gap between clean and dirty fuel widens, these shipowners are realizing massive savings; In fact, this price spread reached $189.50 per ton in Singapore. The current crisis leaves no room for maneuver. As Javier Blas saysthe world has already spent its main lines of defense against this oil shock: compromised refineries have been avoided and strategic reserves have been emptied. Looking to the future, the only variable capable of balancing consumption with a meager supply is the “destruction of demand” through suffocating prices. Ship fuel may come from the bottom of the barrel, but it has proven to have the ability to sink or keep afloat international commerce. Today, without a doubt, it has become the world’s main problem. Image | Photo by william william on Unsplash Xataka | The US Navy already knows what is going to happen to the planet: the mission to open Hormuz is the closest thing to a suicide operation

The US ignored Ukraine’s pleas to Russia, and now Iran has turned the US into Ukraine

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In recent years, something curious has happened in the military world: the most influential drones on the battlefield are not the most advanced, but some of the cheapest. Small devices with triangular wings and simple engines, inspired by Iranian designs, have ended up starring thousands of attacks in several conflicts and forcing entire armies to rethink how to defend their skies. Paradoxically, stopping them usually costs much more than making them. And the United States has realized it late. The war that changed the battle. we have been counting. The Russian invasion of Ukraine inaugurated a new phase in modern warfare marked by the massive use of cheap drones capable of overwhelm the defenses traditional aerials. Since 2022, Russian forces have launched tens of thousands of Shahed drones (of Iranian origin) against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, forcing kyiv to develop an improvised but increasingly sophisticated defense. This experience, acquired in extreme conditions and under constant bombing, has turned the country into the most advanced laboratory in the world to combat this type of weapons. What began as a desperate fight to protect their airspace ended generating new tacticselectronic warfare systems and interceptor drones specifically designed to destroy these low-cost loitering munitions. The weapon that changes the economy of war. The success of Shahed drones is based on brutally simple logic: its price. Each can cost between $20,000 and $50,000, a paltry figure compared to the systems designed to stop them. For years, Ukraine and other countries have been forced to use anti-aircraft missiles that can cost hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars to shoot down a single drone. This asymmetry turns each interception into an economic defeateven when the target is destroyed. To solve the problem, Ukraine began to develop cheaper solutions: interceptor drones that pursue and attack the Shahed, mobile teams with machine guns, electronic jamming systems and surveillance networks adapted to detect these devices before they reach their objectives. The great strategic paradox. Here appears one of the most striking ironies of the current conflict. For years, Ukraine asked for more help to defend against Iranian drone attacks used by Russia and developed specific technology to combat them in view of the fact that no one (or few) paid attention to them. Even now we know who came to offer that experience and those systems to the United States in meetings held at the White House, where he presented proposals to create anti-drone defense networks in the Middle East. That offer was ignored at that time. Ironies of fate, months later, after the start of the war with Iran and the launch of thousands of drones against American bases and allies, Washington has been forced to knock on kyiv’s door and ask for help. In a sense, the conflict has reversed the roles: The most powerful military power in the world is now facing the same dilemma that Ukraine has been trying to solve for years, defending its positions from swarms of cheap drones that force it to spend fortunes to be neutralized. The world calls kyiv. This accumulated experience has turned Ukraine into a unexpectedly valuable partner for countries now suffering similar attacks. Governments in the Middle East, Europe and the United States have begun to request advice, technology and training to defend themselves against Iranian drones. Zelensky himself confirmed that his government has received multiple requests to share knowledge on interceptors, electronic warfare and air defense tactics adapted to this type of threat. kyiv has responded sending experts and systems to some US bases in the region as it tries to balance that aid with its own defensive needs against Russia. From laboratory to export power. The war has also transformed the Ukrainian defense industrial sector. Local companies produce now thousands of interceptor drones every month and have developed models capable of pursuing and destroying Shahed at a fraction of the cost of traditional missiles. Some manufacturers claim to be able manufacture tens of thousands of monthly units, which has aroused enormous international interest. Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabiahave begun negotiations to acquire Ukrainian interceptors and technology, seeking more sustainable solutions than relying exclusively on extremely expensive Western anti-aircraft systems. A new global race: anti-drone defense. The rise of these technologies reflects a change unimaginable until recently in contemporary military logic. The great powers have discovered that systems designed to intercept ballistic missiles or fighter jets are not necessarily effective against swarms of cheap, mass-produced drones. In the Persian Gulf, Israel and the Arab states have had to spend large quantities of missiles Patriot, THAAD or Iron Dome to stop relatively cheap attacks. This dynamic has caused a global career to develop more economical solutions, from interceptor drones to automatic air defense systems capable of confronting massive threats. A global lesson. In short, what began as a regional war in Eastern Europe it’s over redefining the way many countries understand air defense. Ukraine, which for years fought almost alone against massive Iranian drone attacks operated by Russia, has unexpectedly become the world reference to combat this threat. The paradox is simple and obvious, because the technology and tactics developed by a country that was fighting to survive have become essential to protect some of the most advanced military powers on the planet. In the new drone war that extends from Europe to the Middle East, the experience accumulated in the skies over Ukraine has become one of the most valuable strategic assets of the moment. So much so that even has invested the papers with the United States. Image | ArmyInform, Lycksele-Nord, Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine In Xataka | The United Kingdom has opened the kamikaze drone that exploded at the European base. The surprise is capital: it is not from Iran, it is “made in Russia” In Xataka | Shahed drones are spreading terror in the Gulf. Ukraine has offered the solution and the price to pay has a name

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