heat records in Spain have doubled
Every summer in Spain seems to bring with it the same refrain and we repeat several times “this is the hottest day I can remember.” And although sometimes memory deceives us, statistics and mathematics have confirmed that It is not a subjective sensationbut breaking the thermometer year after year has become normal. And it is more common in some specific regions of our country, such as has collected El Confidencial in an interview with the researchers. The data. This has been determined by a team of researchers from the University of Zaragoza who has analyzed data from the State Meteorological Agency between 1960 and 2021. What they were able to observe is that the frequency of breaking a high temperature record has multiplied by two due to global warming. The interpretation. In the published article by these researchers, they are not limited only to counting hot days in a specific time range, but they developed a mathematical tool first level to have very reliable conclusions. And, instead of looking at weather stations in isolation, the team has created a Bayesian model using MCMC (Monte Carlo Markov Chains) methods. This means that they designed an algorithm that is capable of understanding how temperatures are related in space throughout the entire Spanish geography and in time during the period of more than sixty years that they have analyzed. An advantage. This system allowed them to filter out the statistical noise that exists when we interpret these data in a raw manner. In this way, they have processed data from more than 40 locations in mainland Spain and have found out not only how many records have been broken, but how many would have been broken if climate change did not exist. The result is that today we see twice as many records as would be expected in a stable climate. High heat areas. The spatio-temporal model has not only produced a national average, but has also made it possible to map extreme heat with astonishing precision, pointing out that the impact of climate change is more pronounced in specific areas of Spain. In this way, if we look at Spain in general, the frequency of thermal records in the last decade is almost double what is normal. But if we specify much moreareas such as the Northern Meseta, in the area of Madrid and part of Castilla y León, and especially during the summer, have tripled the record data in their historical series, which is well above the national average. A prize model. The great work done by this group has not gone unnoticed, but has managed to win different awards, such as the award for the best applied contribution in statistics. But beyond recognition, the researchers have left a “gift” to the scientific community by leaving the model completely open in R. This means that climatologists and data analysts around the world can download their code and apply it to predict and model the breaking of thermal records in other regions of the planet. Images | Immo Wegmann In Xataka | Long periods of drought are going to become more and more normal. It’s time to get used to them