2025 is not being an easy year for the pistachio. TO the effects of the Iran war, the closure of Hormuz and the swings The price of the fruit now adds a more than likely puncture in the global harvest. This is what at least the main producer organization, the INC, expects, which foresees a drop of 36% in the amount of fruit harvested worldwide. Although it’s not strange that crops rise and fall, conditioned by the climate or the cycles of the trees, the sector’s estimate is interesting for another reason: it confirms that Spain is reinforcing assumption. And everything indicates that it will gain ground this campaign. What has happened? That the International Nuts and Dehydrated Fruits Council (INC) has recognized that the 2026/2027 campaign does not look particularly good for pistachio. At least if we talk about production. Although the sector expects an increase in the cultivation of walnuts, hazelnuts or raisins, in the case of pistachios it anticipates a ‘puncture’ of 36% on a global scale. Translated into tons, that means that production would go from 1.1 million harvested during the 2025/2026 campaign to 701,050 t in the 2026/2027 campaign. Country Campaign 2025/2026 (tons) Campaign 2026/2027 (tons) USA 722,670 350,000 Türkiye 114,600 156,400 Iran 225,000 130,000 Syria 13,350 35,000 Spain 9,500 11,500 Greece 6,500 8,500 Australia 3,000 5,500 Afghanistan 2,600 2,700 Italy 4,700 1,000 China 320 450 World production 1,101,740 701,050 What is the reason? Although a drop of 36% may seem alarming, the data should be handled with caution. Pistachio cultivation is conditioned by the vecería, which means that there are campaigns in which the trees are loaded with fruit and others in which the harvests are much scarcer. It is one of the handicaps with which the sector plays. Hence there are voices, like that of Juan Gallegofrom Ibero Pistacho, who ensure that a drop of 36% “is within the norm.” Nor is it strange that part of the harvests are saved from one year to the next precisely to compensate for the ‘puncture’ of the years highly marked by the harvest. Does only that factor influence? No. The INC data, advanced by the EFE agency, allow us to focus more and observe the great differences that exist between producing countries, each conditioned by its own challenges. For example, in California, the world capital For pistachio, a 52% drop in the harvest is expected due to flowering problems. The ‘photo’ is not good in Iran either, which is suffering the consequences of the high temperatures of the previous campaign and expects its production to be reduced by another 42%. And what happens in Spain? Here the panorama is somewhat different. Although our production is light years away Compared to the US or Türkiye, the INC estimates that in Spain the 2026/2027 campaign will close with 21% more fruit harvested. In practice, this would mean going from 9,500 tons in the 2025/2026 financial year to 11,500 in the 2026/2027 campaign. The data is interesting because it not only consolidates Spain as the fifth world producer, it also allows it to dream of closing the gap on the podium. The forecast of the INC shows a decline in crops in the US and Iran, the first and third producers on a global scale. And although a priori Türkiye (the second supplier) will see its harvest increase by 36%, it remains to be seen if the strong storm that suffered in May has damaged the trees and will reduce the harvest. How is that possible? That the Spanish crop grows while it declines in other countries with large pistachio plantations, such as the US, Türkiye or Iran, is actually little surprising. Spanish farmers They have been increasing for years the number of hectares dedicated to this crop, especially in Castile-La Manchawhich concentrates a large part of the national production and 77% of the surface. The growth of the harvest in Spain during the next campaign (2026/2027) is only a reflection of that bet. The data from the Ministry of Agriculture show that the planted area in Spain has skyrocketed in recent years to exceed 85,800 hectares in the 2024/2025 campaign and that production has grown by more than 70% in just a few years. Looking ahead to the 2026/2027 season, the INC expects a harvest of 11,500 tons. Not all sources agree on this information (in the sector there are those raises it to 16,000 t), but in any case the background photo is always the same: Spanish production is increasing. What to expect now? The million dollar question. For now, and beyond the short-term fall in harvests due to the rainy season, both the US and Iran they hope to increase its production thanks to the increase in plantations. Specifically, California hopes to boost its average capacity by 40% in the coming campaigns and Iran and Türkiye are already considering approaching 300,000 tons in the medium term. Regarding the price of the fruit and whether or not prices will be altered by the 36% drop in production, there are different opinions in the sector. The Italian analysis company Areté warns of a market with “strong tensions on supply and prices” given that the demand for pistachios has been growing for years. Others, like Gallego, acknowledge that “there may be a small increase in cents,” but clarifies: “All of us who are in this sector are interested in the product remaining stable and being consumed.” Not only the generosity of the crops comes into play. The price is also affected by other factorssuch as instability in Iran, the closure of Hormuz or the influence of war on the cost of inputs such as fuel. Images | Brenan Greene (Unsplash), Brad Spry (Flickr) and USDA In Xataka | Fruit seems like the perfect summer dinner. The problem is that it is not as good an idea as it seems.