Iran

The US had a ship with 2,000 marines ready to invade Iran. Now he has sent it right to the place where China worries the most

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An image that is still studied in military academies occurred in 1942, when during the call Battle of Midway The Americans managed to sink four Japanese aircraft carriers in just a few hours. That battle showed that, in the Pacific, moving a handful of ships to the right place could upset the strategic balance of an entire region, a lesson that continues to influence American naval planning more than eight decades later. A movement and what it reveals. For weeks there was speculation that the United States would expand its confrontation with Iran through more aggressive operations on the ground in the Persian Gulf. However, one of the most significant military moves has occurred far from the Middle East. He USS Boxeran amphibious assault ship capable of landing troops, vehicles and combat aircraft has abandoned any potential role in a ground operation against Iran and has set course to the South China Sea. On board is the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, some 2,000 troops specialized in rapid interventions and amphibious assaults. The decision suggests that Washington considers that the main strategic challenge today is not in Tehran, but in the growing rivalry with China. From the Gulf to the China Sea. When the Boxer left San Diego In March, in the midst of the crisis with Iran, many interpreted its deployment as a way to keep open the option of carrying out limited landings or capturing strategic objectives if the conflict escalated. However, after a logistics stopover in Singapore and a transit through the Andaman Sea, the ship has reappeared in the South China Sea integrated into the Indo-Pacific Command structure. It is a platform comparable in concept to the Juan Carlos I Spanish, capable of operating landing craft, amphibious vehicles, helicopters and F-35 fighters, allowing it to act as both a light aircraft carrier and a ground intervention force. What changes for Iran. The boxer exit It further reduces the chances of a US amphibious operation against Iranian targets. While the USS Tripoli continues in the region performing functions focused on air strikes and naval support, Washington seems to be betting on a strategy based on blockades, precision bombings and economic pressure, avoiding committing troops on the ground. The decision can be interpreted as a partial military de-escalation, although it also reflects a simpler reality: the United States believes it can contain Iran without deploying significant amphibious forces, while competition with China requires a constant presence and visible in Asia. The concern of Asian allies. Reuters counted that the issue was very present in the Singapore Shangri-La Dialoguewhere numerous Asian defense officials expressed doubts about whether the United States will be able to simultaneously maintain its focus on the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific. Although Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth insisted in which Washington can manage both scenarios at the same time, countries such as the Philippines, Japan, Australia, Canada and New Zealand they are reinforcing their military capabilities and deepening their mutual ties to complement the American security umbrella. The goal is to build a stronger regional network in the face of growing pressure from Beijing. Japan and the new security architecture. Japan is becoming one of the pillars of that strategy. Tokyo has made more flexible historically its arms export rules and aspires to act as a connection point between the different partners in the region. The idea is that deterrence against China do not depend exclusively of the United States, but of an increasingly integrated network of countries capable of sharing equipment, training and military cooperation. This shift reflects the extent to which the perception of China’s military rise is transforming Asian security policy. The center of gravity of global competition. The arrival of the Boxer coincides with intense military activity in the Indo-Pacific. The USS George Washington aircraft carrier has started new patrols from Japan, while the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning operates in the Western Pacific under surveillance of neighboring countries. In this context, the deployment of a US amphibious force in the South China Sea has a strong symbolic and operational value. Because beyond the crisis with Iran, the Boxer’s journey summarizes an increasingly evident trend: although the Middle East continues to generate immediate conflicts, the great strategic competition that defines Washington’s priorities is being fought in Asia and, especially, in the face of the rise of China. Image | US Navy In Xataka | China has resurrected the strangest concept of the Cold War: a plane, a ship and a missile launcher in one machine In Xataka | Something is happening over the skies of Chile: the US and China are fighting their particular “cold war” in silence

That Iran shot down a US F-15 was something unusual. The problem is that they have opened the missile… and everything points to China

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In 1960, when an American U-2 spy plane was shot down over the Soviet UnionWashington initially believed it was facing a military problem. He ended up discovering that the incident had diplomatic consequences much larger and blew up a summit between the two superpowers. Because sometimes a single downed plane reveals a story much bigger than the battle in which it fell. The takedown that changed the conversation. He downing of an F-15E on Iran last month was, in itself, an extraordinary event. It had been decades since a United States fighter had been shot down by enemy fire, and the rescue movie operation later, with one of the crew hiding for two days in the Zagros Mountains, underlined the seriousness of the episode. However, as investigations continue, the incident is shifting from being a story about Iranian military capabilities to something else: a story about China. According to cited sources by NBC News the suspicion that the plane was hit by a portable anti-aircraft missile (MANPADS) of Chinese manufacture has shifted the focus from the battlefield to a much more uncomfortable question for Washington: to what extent Beijing is helping to sustain Tehran’s military capacity. More important than the missile. From a military point of view, a portable anti-aircraft missile is not a revolutionary weapon. Its appeal lies precisely on the contrary: It is relatively cheap, easy to deploy, and capable of threatening even extremely sophisticated platforms if circumstances are favorable. Hence, what has aroused American interest is not so much the type of weapon used as its possible origin. If suspicions are correct, the shootdown would demonstrate that Chinese technology has ended up participatingdirectly or indirectly, in one of the more symbolic hits suffered by American aviation in years. From that perspective, the discussion then stops revolving around how Iran managed to shoot down an F-15 and begins to focus on what role played China to make it possible. The shadow of broader support. Because suspicions are not limited to the missile. US sources also suggest that China may have provided Iran with radar systems capable of detecting stealth aircraft and access to space capabilities that would facilitate the location of targets. So far none of these accusations have been conclusively proven publicly and Beijing categorically rejects them, but together they paint an image that is worrying in Washington: that of a technological support network which, without involving direct military involvement, could significantly increase Iran’s ability to challenge the United States and its allies. In this context, the downed F-15 becomes tangible proof of a broader phenomenon that US officials have been denouncing for some time. The contradiction of American diplomacy. The situation is especially delicate because the United States simultaneously needs to contain Iran and keep channels open with China. Beijing is the main buyer of the iranian oil and one of the few actors with enough influence to put economic pressure on Tehran. During negotiations to reach a ceasefire, the Trump administration sought precisely that collaboration. But every new accusation on Chinese missiles, radars or satellites used by Iran complicates that balance. Washington thus finds itself in an uncomfortable position: it needs China to contribute to stabilizing the region while accusing it of providing tools that strengthen one of its main adversaries in the Middle East. The real message. That’s why the downing of the F-15 It has a relevance that goes far beyond the loss of a plane. What is at stake is not only the effectiveness of Iranian defenses, but the American perception that more and more regional conflicts are connected to global strategic competition. against China. The investigation on the missile seeks to determine how the fighter fell, but also who was behind the technology that made it possible. In a sense, Washington has opened up the missile to examine it piece by piece, and in doing so has discovered that the biggest questions no longer point solely to Tehran. They aim more and more towards Beijingwhere the United States believes is a growing part of the economic, technological and military infrastructure that allows its rivals to challenge its power in different corners of the world. Image | U.S. Force In Xataka | The US has copied its very cheap drone swarms from Iran and Russia. The problem is what Starlink asks for connecting them In Xataka | The war in the East has reached an unexpected agreement: one where the US does not discuss Iran’s missiles, bombs or uranium

How the Panama Canal is being lined thanks to the war in Iran

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When an international conflict breaks out, there is always someone who manages to take advantage. As the world watches with concern the Third Gulf War, thousands of kilometers from missiles and drones, the Panama Canal has been crowned the unexpected winner of this global chaos. What began as an energy crisis in the Persian Gulf has become, for the small Central American nation, a gold mine of historic dimensions. Since the attacks triggered the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz – the world’s main artery for fuel transportation, through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas trade transits – maritime trade has entered a phase of genuine desperation. The urgency to move goods has reached such a point that, as confirmed by Ricaurte Vásquez Moralesadministrator of the Panama Canal, a shipping company paid 4 million dollars in an auction just to skip the line and cross the interoceanic waterway as soon as possible. The mechanism of urgency After the Hormuz blockade, traffic through the Panamanian canal has experienced a general increase of close to 11%, registering peaks of up to an additional 20% on the days of greatest demand, as reported by the Panama Canal Authority itself BBC. During the first half of fiscal year 2026 – from October 2025 to March 2026 – the channel registered 6,288 transits, 224 more than in the same period of the previous year, according to data presented by the channel authority to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. In order to absorb this flow, nature has also been complicit. The deputy administrator of the channel, Ilya Espino de Marotta, explained to cnn that unusually intense rains during the dry season have kept Gatún and Alhajuela lakes at maximum levels, which has made it possible to manage between 40 and 41 daily transits compared to the usual average of 36. A notable recovery if one remembers that during the El Niño drought between 2023 and 2024, daily transits fell to 24. “The Panama Canal is open and fully operational,” assured Vásquez Morales. “Amid all the geopolitical complexities of today’s world, the Panama Canal remains open and reliable.” But the true profitability is not only in the volume, but in the price of urgency. The companies they pay a fixed rate between 300,000 and 400,000 dollars to transit with prior reservation. Those who do not have it must compete in a relentless auction system where the highest bidder takes the coveted spot. Víctor Vial, vice president of finance of the channel, detailed in the same presentation to investors that the average auction price before the crisis ranged between 135,000 and 140,000 additional dollars. After the start of the conflict, “that average increased to approximately $385,000 between March and April.” Desperation has pushed some oil companies to pay more than 3 million additional dollars to avoid waits, according to Bloomberg. The absolute record of 4 million is explained by Vásquez himself: “It was a ship that transported fuel to Europe, but they diverted it to Singapore, and it had to get there because Singapore is running out of fuel,” declared. With this extraordinary injection, Vial estimated that the growth of the channel’s income will be between 10% and 15% this year, although he warned that “we are still not doing the math or modifying our projections.” A logistical lifesaver, not a replacement The profitability of the channel is explained by the geography of the panic. More than 80% of the oil that usually transited through Hormuz was destined for the Asian continent, according to Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). When that route was blocked, buyers from Japan, South Korea, India and China turned to the United States Gulf Coast. According to data from the maritime intelligence company Kpler cited by BloombergUS crude oil exports through the Panama Canal have exceeded 200,000 barrels per day, approaching their maximum since July 2022. The logic is implacable. A trip from the US Gulf Coast to Japan via the canal takes almost a month, while going around Africa around the Cape of Good Hope would take almost twice as long. “With all the bombings, missiles, drones, companies say it is safer and less expensive to cross through the Panama Canal,” explained Rodrigo Noriegalawyer and analyst in Panama City. “All of this is affecting global supply chains.” Despite the boom, experts are categorical when comparing both routes. The EIA data, updated as of March 2026illustrate it crudely: in the first half of 2025, 20.9 million barrels of oil per day transited the Strait of Hormuz, compared to the 2.3 million that crossed the Panama Canal in its entire fiscal year 2025. A ratio of almost one to nine. Furthermore, VLCC-type supertankers—capable of transporting up to two million barrels in a single trip—are simply too big for the Panamanian locks, as both France 24 and OilPrice point out. Panama is a golden shortcut, but it does not have the muscles to replace the massive flow of the Persian Gulf. Marc Gilbert, global leader of the Geopolitics Center at Boston Consulting Group, summed it up: “What is really happening is that energy from the United States is replacing the volumes that cargoes from the Gulf previously sent to Asia.” And he added that what this crisis shows is that “when a sea lane fails, the entire system must adapt.” From economic bonanza to diplomatic minefield Panama’s sudden strategic prominence has not gone unnoticed by the great powers. As reported by Al JazeeraWashington and its allies accused China at the end of April of applying “selective economic pressure”, retaining dozens of Panamanian-flagged ships in Chinese ports in retaliation for the annulment, by the Panamanian Supreme Court, of a port concession that a company linked to Hong Kong maintained over the ports of Balboa and Cristóbal. Beijing categorically denied the accusations. The spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Lin Jian, described them as statements that “lack foundation and distort reality”, and in turn accused the United … Read more

While we were looking at gasoline, the Iran crisis has skyrocketed the price of asphalt. And the roads of half the world are already suffering from it

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A few months ago we published in Xataka an article with the following title: Spanish roads have a problem in 2026: repairing a kilometer of asphalt is more expensive than ever. It was February 26, 2026. In it we analyzed the problem that Spain had encountered. Our roads, prepared for a hot and dry climate (especially in the southern half) had suffered very intense days of almost constant rain. It didn’t take long for the holes to appear and neither did the complaints in the media and social networks about the supposed poor condition of the roads. Trying to understand if this is really the case or not and why it is estimated that the State needs to invest some of 13,000 million euros to fix themwe looked to see if it had become more expensive the price of asphalt in recent years. Something that, indeed, was reflected in the aforementioned article. But this, as we said, was published on February 26. Two days later, on February 28, we woke up to the news that the Government of the United States and Israel had launched a joint bombing offensive against Iran. The rest, we already know. Crisis in oil supplya battle for open and close the Hormuz canal and fuel increases for passenger cars and airplanes. But there is something that has also risen. And that something is called asphalt. More expensive than ever (now yes) And in less than three months, which seem to have lasted a lifetime, the headline has become outdated. At the end of last month, Asefma (Spanish Association of Asphalt Mixture Manufacturers) already warned that the price of asphalt was skyrocketing. According to this association, in March alone the average price of asphalt had risen 8.2%. Nothing compared to April, when it did so by 49.3%. He overrun of the final product is due, above all, to the increase in the price of bitumen that acts as a binder for asphalt and is where the increase in the price of oil has the most impact. Asefma has come to consider that the increase in the price of asphalt was putting at risk the viability of the signed contracts or even whether they will be fulfilled or completed if the works have already begun. The truth is that, beyond the possible pressure measures of the employers’ association that defends the interests of its associates, the price of asphalt has skyrocketed inside and outside our country. To understand why asphalt has become more expensive you have to understand what makes it up. The pavement of our roads is made up of dirt and stones that are compacted. They serve as a base but also cushion the weight placed on them to delay the breaking of the asphalt. This asphalt is a bituminous mixture that uses bitumen of different intensity depending on where the road is going to be built. Those that resist heat better tend to be less flexible and those that drain better tend to be more flexible. Therefore, the latter They can melt when temperatures are very high. All components have been affected by the increase in the price of oil. To begin with, the earth and stones have to be transported by heavy vehicles with very high diesel consumption, precisely the fuel that has become most expensive. The same thing happens with the refinement of bitumen or asphalt (what we ultimately step on). If energy costs rise, the price of this product rises. But, in addition, the price of bitumen is closely linked to the price of oil. This product is made from the densest oil in the barrel, the least usable in energy terms and the most expensive to convert into fuel. This product is what is refined to obtain bitumen and, with bombs falling on Iran and the subsequent response on neighboring countries, the production and export of raw materials It has been very diminished, obviously. The American company Victory Paving figure in an increase of between 2 and 3% in the price of asphalt for every 10 dollars that a barrel of oil rises. They also argue that the shortage is greater because the rise in energy costs has an impact on a drop in the production of refineries and these usually prioritize the production of diesel and gasoline over asphalt refining because the fuels are more profitable. Richard Hudock, president of Derry Construction Co., pointed out to the American media who had never suffered a crisis so serious in the 42 years that they had been working, ensuring that the impact of the price of oil on the raw materials and fuel to be able to operate their vehicles put their job at risk this summer. In Argus They point out that the situation in Africa is no better. They point out that the bitumen that reaches countries like South Africa has become almost exclusively dependent on trade with Greece and Türkiye, once the Middle East tap has been closed. This has caused the price of each freighter to triple. If the price of asphalt has grown in the United States, South Africa and Spain, doubts have also grown about what to do in these cases. In the first of these countries It has been proposed to delay the patching of certain streets or highways. But this can cause the problem to worsen and, even if the price of oil falls again in the future, the damage will be deeper and the investment to be made would have to be larger. And the problem is that in the United States, the United Kingdom and Spain we face the same problem. The winters In all of these countries it has been very cold or very rainy, so the condition of the asphalt has been compromised. In BBC They report that the United Kingdom had already increased the budget to repair its roads but that the increase in the price of oil has put this item in check. The result, as … Read more

While everyone was looking at Hormuz, Russia has found a much bigger secret route. And drones do not stop arriving in Iran

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During the Cold War, Western intelligence services came to suspect that some Soviet freighters that apparently transported grain or machinery were actually hiding military equipment and technology sensitive under false covers. The problem was that, once inside certain internal routes controlled by Moscow and its allies, tracking them became extraordinarily difficult even for the greatest naval powers on the planet. While the world watches Hormuz. For months, the Strait of Hormuz has become the perfect symbol of Western pressure on Iran: US aircraft carriers, oil tankers diverting routes, marine insurance fired and constant threats on one of the great energy bottlenecks on the planet. However, while all international attention was focused there, Russia and Iran have been consolidating a much less visible and probably much more uncomfortable route for Washington: the Caspian Sea. It The New York Times said the weekend. This enormous space of inland water in northern Iran, usually ignored in geopolitical analyses, is being transformed into a true strategic highway to move goods, drones, military components and technology away from the direct reach of the United States. The photo. The most revealing image came when Israel bombed the Iranian port of Bandar Anzali, in the heart of the Caspian, in one of the most significant attacks of its campaign against Iran. The target was not in the Persian Gulf or Hormuz, but hundreds of kilometers further north. It was a clear sign that real logistical warfare no longer revolves solely around the most famous strait on the planet. The route that keeps Iran alive. The importance of the Caspian for Tehran has grown spectacularly since the pressure on Hormuz intensified. Russian and Iranian ships now transport wheat, corn, sunflower oil, animal feed and all kinds of of essential supplies who previously arrived via more vulnerable routes. Four Iranian Caspian ports are working at full capacity to absorb this growing traffic, while Moscow has begun to redirect millions of tons of goods that previously crossed the Black Sea. It turns out that the true strategic core is not in the cereal. According to US officials, Russia is using that route to send drone components to Iran to help it rebuild part of the arsenal lost during the last fighting with Israel and the United States. The relationship is especially symbolic because for years It was Iran that supplied Russia with Shahed drones for the war in Ukraine. Now the flow has partially reversed: Moscow manufactures its own versions under license and returns technology, components and military expertise to Tehran using the Caspian as a protected corridor. A perfect sea to avoid sanctions. The great advantage of the Caspian for Russia and Iran is that it is an extraordinarily difficult to control from outside. Unlike the Persian Gulf, where the US naval presence dominates much of the maritime traffic, in the Caspian they can only operate the five coastal countries. The United States cannot intercept ships there or impose direct blockades. Furthermore, a large part of the ships sail with transponders offdisappearing from satellite tracking systems and feeding an increasingly opaque network of “ghost ships.” In fact, Western analysts describe the Caspian as the ideal place for discreet military transfers and sanctions evasion. Dark shipping traffic has skyrocketed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and both Moscow and Tehran have perfected methods to hide real shipments, routes and operators. It is no coincidence that Ukraine attacked the Russian port of Olya in 2024, accusing it of being a logistics center for the transfer of Iranian drone components. Nor that Israel Bandar Anzali will hit. Everyone seems to have understood that a logistical rearguard is being built there that is much more resistant than it appears. Moscow’s strategic obsession. Plus: for the Kremlin, the Caspian is not just a temporary solution derived from sanctions or the war in Ukraine. Russia and Iran have two decades imagining a gigantic trade corridor that connects the Baltic with the Indian Ocean, crossing Russia, the Caspian and Iran to avoid routes controlled by the West. The project includes new portsrailway lines and renewal of aging fleets, although many of these plans remain on paper due to lack of resources and the geographical difficulties of the Caspian. Still, the war has accelerated the strategic logic behind that idea: creating an alternative system of commercial and military circulation outside the reach of Western sanctions. For Putin, furthermore, the balance is delicate. Needs to support Iran as a regional ally and military partner, but do so in an all-too-visible way could deteriorate even more so its relationship with Washington and with several Arab countries important for Russian energy trade. The Caspian offers precisely that: sufficient support, but far from the media and military focus that Hormuz dominates. America’s great blind spot. Much of the Western concern arises from a very uncomfortable feeling: for years, the Caspian hardly occupied any space in American strategic planning. Experts in Washington recognize that the region functions almost like a black hole diplomat divided between different military commands and bureaucratic departments. Thus, while the world observed aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf or drones over Ukraine, Russia and Iran took advantage of an immense, opaque and difficult to monitor geographic space to weave a logistics network that connects both conflicts. The problem for the United States is not that the Caspian completely replaces Hormuz, because it cannot do so, especially in massive oil exports. The real problem is that even under extreme military pressure, sanctions and naval blockades, Iran continues to find ways to stay connectedrearm and receive outside support. And each drone, each component and each shipment that silently crosses the Caspian reinforces an increasingly evident idea: while everyone was looking at the Strait of Hormuz, Russia and Iran they were building an alternative route much more difficult to stop. Image | PexelsNASA In Xataka | We sensed that Iran’s attacks on the US had been important. In reality, they were devastating In Xataka | While the whole world looks at … Read more

Iran did to the US what Ukraine did to Russia in Operation Spiderweb

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In the first weeks of the war, published reports on the damage inflicted by Iran to bases and radars of Washington in the Middle East. For example, attacks on 14 US military sites or air defense facilities were documented, or the bombing of a US base in Kuwaitthe first time in years that an enemy fighter jet hit a US base. However, it has now just become known that, in reality, it has been much worse. The war that the images began to reveal. For years, Western armies assumed that absolute control of the air and satellites was enough to hide damage, movements and weaknesses in the middle of a war… until recent conflicts began to demonstrate just the opposite. In Ukraine, simple commercial photographs Taken from space, they allowed Russian convoys to be followed, bombers to be located, and destroyed facilities to be detected long before governments acknowledged anything. To that mission he called it Spiderweb. It so happens that the same thing is happening now in the Middle East. What began as a campaign presented by Washington as a punishment operation against Iran has ended up leaving an image much more uncomfortable: that satellite photographs are showing a level of destruction on US facilities much higher than publicly admitted. The uncomfortable discovery. Latest Washington Post analysis More than a hundred satellite images have revealed that Iran hit at least 228 military structures or equipment Americans distributed throughout bases in the Middle East, a figure much higher than that officially recognized. The impacts hit hangars, barracks, fuel tanks, Patriot systems, THAAD radarscommunications centers, electrical installations and even strategic aircraft, making it clear that Tehran was not launching symbolic or indiscriminate attacks. The most delicate thing for the United States is that many of these images initially came from Iranian media and were subsequently verified through European systems and other independent commercial sources. In other words, the initial narrative of limited attacks began to collapse when the images began to show something much more serious: that Iran had achieved penetrate advanced defenses and hit critical American infrastructure in numerous countries at the same time. Damage to Camp Arifjan in Kuwait visible on March 4 Iran found the weak point of the bases. Wapo counted that one of the most striking aspects of the attacks is the precision with which they were executed. Military analysts highlighted the absence of random craters and the concentration of impacts on specific targets, a sign that Iran had very detailed prior intelligence on US facilities. The attacks were not limited to military runways or depots traditional facilities, they also hit gymnasiums, lodgings, mess halls, and staff buildings, reflecting a deliberate attempt to increase human casualties and force the United States to empty entire bases (as, in fact, that’s how it happened). Because several facilities ended up being considered too dangerous to operate normally, causing partial evacuations and the transfer of troops beyond Iranian reach. Some bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, used to launch attacks against Iran or deploy HIMARS systems, were especially punishedfueling the feeling that Tehran had managed to quickly identify which platforms were directly participating in the campaign. Nine fuel tanks at the Ali al-Salem air base in Kuwait were damaged Drones changed everything. Much of this battlefield transformation is directly related to a lesson learned in Ukraine: cheap and unidirectional attack drones are eroding the traditional advantage of great powers. American experts recognize that the Pentagon did not adapt its bases quickly enough to this new threat, despite spending years observing how relatively simple drones destroyed armored vehicles, radars or critical infrastructure in other conflicts. Although many Iranian drones carried reduced explosive charges, they were extremely difficult to intercept and they could attack stationary targets with enormous precision. This forced the consumption of gigantic quantities of Patriot and THAAD interceptors, dangerously reducing American and allied reserves in just a few weeks. The result was paradoxical: the most advanced military power in the world began to be forced to play defense around its own bases, while Iran found relatively cheap ways to overwhelm multibillion-dollar anti-aircraft systems. The enormous hidden wear. While Washington publicly insisted that the damage did not significantly alter the military campaign, the images they showed a more complex reality. Some key facilities were damaged considered “extensive” even by American officials, and part of the regional command had to be relocated out of the Middle East. As we said, the headquarters of the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain was one of the most affected areasto the point of moving functions to Florida, while the internal debate grows over whether certain bases will operate as before. Worrying signs also emerged on structural failures: Strategic aircraft repeatedly parked in vulnerable positions, insufficiently protected tactical centers, and a shortage of hardened shelters for critical personnel and equipment. All of this fueled one conclusion: that the United States had underestimated both Iranian resilience and the speed with which modern wars are making transparent facilities that previously seemed untouchable. The true strategic signal that this war leaves. Beyond the specific damage, what really worries strategists and military personnel is the change of perception left by satellite images. For decades, the presence of US bases throughout the Middle East functioned as a symbol of absolute control and immediate response capacity, but now those same facilities appear exposedvulnerable and permanently observed from the air and from space. If you will, the conflict has left a feeling that is difficult to ignore: that Iran may not be able to defeat the United States militarily in a conventional confrontation, but it can. inflict enough damageattrition and political pressure to profoundly alter the US strategic calculation in the region. And that idea that began with Spiderweb operation in Ukrainemultiplied by hundreds of photographs of destroyed hangars, hit radars and partially emptied bases, may end up being one of the most important consequences of the entire war. Image | Iran media, Planet In Xataka | Türkiye has taken a look at the … Read more

China turned off the oil tap when the conflict with Iran broke out. Now he reopens it to rescue a thirsty Asia

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When the Strait of Hormuz was practically sealed after the outbreak of the well-known Third Gulf War, the world held its breath. In the midst of widespread panic over the strangulation of one of the planet’s most vital energy arteries, the first major tectonic movement came from Beijing. The Asian giant opted for the crudest pragmatism: it ordered its large refineries to immediately and opaquely stop gasoline and diesel exports to shield its own tanks. China isolated itself to survive. However, in just a few weeks, the board has taken an unexpected turn. With an Asia that looks into the abyss of the shortage, Beijing has decided to reopen the valve, going from being a protectionist actor to establishing itself as the great energy lifeline of the region. Asia’s savior: China. The shockwaves of war have left the Indo-Pacific region shivering. Asia has become “ground zero” of the crisis. In Australia, the panic has emptied the gas stationsforcing the government to cut emergency taxes; India has had to sacrifice tax revenue to freeze prices due to shortages; Japan has refused to share its strategic reserves with its neighbors; and Vietnam airlines They have had to cancel en masse their flights due to the lack and extra cost of aviation fuel. In the midst of this desperation, China has made its move. As anticipated BloombergBeijing has given the green light to its state refineries to export 500,000 tons of fuels (gasoline, diesel and kerosene) over the next month. According to sources cited by oil pricecompanies such as Sinopec and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) already have shipments ready on ships that will be destined, as a rescue, to severely punished neighboring nations such as Vietnam and Laos. The energetic rice bowl. That China can afford to export fuel while the rest of the continent applies rationing measures is not a miracle, it is the result of a silent strategy. China took advantage of previous years to buy heavily sanctioned and cheap crude oil (Russian, Venezuelan and Iranian), managing to accumulate colossal reserves of almost 1.4 billion barrels. According to researcher Henry Tugendhatthis gives Beijing a cushion of about 104 days of domestic demand, in addition to having a “floating warehouse” of Iranian oil tankers anchored off its coasts waiting to be unloaded. Returning to “Game of Thrones.” But Beijing’s move goes far beyond helping its neighbors; It is a direct geopolitical challenge. As detailed South China Morning Post (SCMP)China has for the first time activated its so-called “Blockade Rules” of 2021. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has issued an official order prohibiting domestic companies from complying with the sanctions recently imposed by the United States. Washington had sanctioned five refineries Chinese independent companies (known as “teapots”), including Hengli Petrochemical, accusing them of financing the Iranian military by purchasing its oil. By ordering the contempt of these sanctions because they are considered a “improper extraterritorial application”Beijing demonstrates that it not only has physical control of the crude oil, but that it is willing to engage in a legal and financial confrontation with the United States to protect its supply lines. Tightrope diplomacy. The short-term scenario will be played in the offices. As explained The New York TimesChina is playing both sides in this conflict. On the one hand, he acts as a peaceful mediator, pushing Iran to negotiate to de-escalate tension, having been key in the fragile temporary ceasefires. However, on the other hand, US intelligence agencies suspect that Chinese companies continue to export dual-use material and even military technology to Tehran. All of this is meticulously calculated ahead of the imminent May 14 summit in Beijing between Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump. According to the analysts consulted through the New York environmentthe fact that the US is bogged down in the Middle East and rapidly spending its military resources, gives China a position of tremendous strength to negotiate over tariffs, trade and the US naval blockade. lenergy as the definitive weapon of the 21st century. The Strait of Hormuz crisis has functioned as a stress test for energy globalization. The sanctions drawn up in Washington attempt to financially suffocate the actors in the conflict, but the tyranny of physical infrastructure imposes its own rules. China has shown that the energy wars in this decade are not only decided with naval deployments, but with warehouses full of strategic reserves, independence in refining capacity and overwhelming dominance in the manufacturing of renewable energy. By reopening its export tap, Beijing sends a clear message to the world: while the West hyperventilates over the price of a barrel, China is the one who has the ability to decide who is left in the dark in Asia. Image | Photo by Bundo Kim on Unsplash Xataka | China is one of the largest refining powers on the planet. And he has decided something: to keep all the gasoline he produces

After gasoline, the war in Iran is about to skyrocket the price of something just as painful: your Zara clothes

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During the oil crisis In 1973, several industries that seemed completely unrelated to energy, such as plastics or fertilizers, suddenly discovered that Your costs could skyrocket in a matter of weeks for decisions made thousands of miles away, altering prices and supply chains in sectors where no one looked at the barrel of crude oil. From oil to the closet. I counted the weekend Reuters that the rise in energy prices after the war in Iran is beginning to filter down a lot beyond gasoline or transportation, reaching a less obvious field: the clothes that reach the stores. The link is direct, because a good part of the textile industry depends on petroleum derivatives, and any tension in that market is quickly transmitted to the materials that support global garment production. The key piece. Polyester dominates the global textile industry with a massive presence in almost all types of clothing, from sportswear to everyday dresses. The problem is that its manufacture depends of compounds such as PTA and MEGwhose cost has skyrocketedabout 30% due to the rise in crude oil, the increase in from Asian suppliers and disruptions in the Middle East. This pressure turns the polyester into the entry point of the energy crisis in fashion, transferring the impact from the energy markets to the fabric of the industry itself. The chain that begins to break. Reuters remembered that the blow is being felt with special intensity in India and Bangladeshtwo pillars of global clothing production. Factories that were previously operating at full capacity have drastically reduced their activity, with looms stopped, production cut by less than half and difficulties in fulfilling international orders. Added to this is the labor shortage in some textile centers, caused by basic energy problems such as the lack of gas, which adds another layer of tension to a system already on the limit. Gain time without escape. Big names emerge here, where companies like Inditex or H&M They are not yet immediately transferring the impact to the consumer thanks to advance purchases and inventory planning, which has allowed them to mitigate and cushion the blow in the short term. Even so, suppliers already they are announcing increases of prices and the absorption margin has a very clear limit. Plus: The use of recycled polyester offers some relief, although its weight remains low within the overall total, limiting its ability to offset current pressure. Costs rise, demand trembles. Thus, the price increase starts to move to threads, dyes, transportation and essential components, generating a chain effect that can end up affecting the volume of orders. For their part, manufacturers warn that, if the situation continues, production will fall and consumers will reduce purchases due to higher prices. The phenomenon, known as demand destructionintroduces an added risk: a simultaneous drop in supply and consumption that affects the entire industry. It’s not just the Zara shirt, but also the shoes. Yes, because the impact of oil aims to spread as well to the footwear sectorwhere derived materials such as foams, adhesives or synthetic soles also depend on petrochemical products. In other words, this means that the pressure on costs will not be limited to t-shirts or pants, but will reach a wide range of products, complicating the price planning and market stability. The crisis where no one was looking. In short, what began as a rise in energy prices It is becoming a structural problem for the fashion industry. In essence, the dependence on oil for key materials turns any conflict into a direct variable. about the final price of the garments. And as pressure builds up in the supply chain, the impact is no longer invisible or minimal, but is slowly but inexorably approaching. consumer pocketsignaling a profound change in how geopolitics can end up being reflected in something as everyday as the shirt that until now you bought for 20 euros. Image | POT, Leitonmahillo In Xataka | If the war resumes again, the US runs a risk unprecedented in the history of war: that the only one with missiles will be Iran. In Xataka | If the question is why the US attacked an Iranian ship with a weapon unprecedented in 40 years, we already know the answer: a “gift from China”

The US is doing a lot of damage to Iran with the Hormuz counterblockade. So much so that he is already considering closing oil wells

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Oil has an unbreakable physical law: once it leaves the ground, it has to go somewhere. If ships can’t transport it and storage tanks fill up, the only option is to shut down the wells. Today, the war of attrition between the United States and Iran has ceased to be a mere diplomatic conflict and has become a geological and logistical time bomb. According to data from the analysis firm KplerIran has just 12 to 22 days left before its crude oil storage capacity is completely saturated. The US naval blockade has suffocated its exports by 70%, plummeting shipments from 1.85 million barrels per day to a meager 567,000. A lethal limit. As explained Al Jazeera, Stopping production at an oil well is not like turning off a light switch. When pumping is stopped, the pressure in the underground reservoirs drops sharply, allowing water or gas to seep into the production layers. The potential damage is immense: The Wall Street Journal warns that almost half of the Iranian oil fields are old and low pressure. An abrupt shutdown threatens to permanently destroy part of this aging infrastructure, making recovering that crude oil in the future technically and financially unfeasible. In Washington, the narrative is one of imminent victory. The US administration is confident that this collapse will force Tehran to surrender. According to statements collected by Foreign Policythe US Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessentand President Donald Trump himself predict that the drowning will cause an imminent internal shortage of gasoline, increasing social pressure on the regime until it is forced to give in. However, experts urge caution against Western triumphalism. A rigorous analysis of the Center on Global Energy Policy from Columbia University dismantles part of the myth of catastrophic damage dividing the problem into two fronts: Crude oil can breathe: Specialists detail that the historic oil fields of Khuzestan operate through a “gravity drainage” system. Paradoxically, a temporary stoppage could allow these specific reservoirs to recharge naturally. Natural gas, the true Achilles’ heel: The real risk, the institution explains, lies in the natural gas fields, such as the gigantic South Pars. If these become blocked as they cannot release the associated liquids, Iran will be forced to drastically ration energy for industry and homes in the coming months. Tehran does not plan to give up. According to NDTV, The Islamic Republic will maintain its “diplomacy of patience.” Furthermore, the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) already survived to severe production cuts in 2012 and 2019, and has a robust smuggling network that makes it very resistant to conventional economic pressure. Added to this is the time factor: according to the calculations of Kplerthe real financial blow will take between three and four months to be felt in Iranian coffers, since China – its main client – ​​operates with long delays in payments. The flight forward. To buy time, Iran is resorting to extreme measures. As revealed The Wall Street Journal, The country is reactivating dilapidated infrastructure, known in the sector as “junk storage”, in areas such as Ahvaz and Asaluyeh, and is even trying to export crude oil by train to China; a very slow and very expensive route that shows the level of stress in the system. and in the sea activation of the Nashaa 30-year-old supertanker rescued from scrapping to serve as an emergency floating warehouse. But the most fascinating and opaque strategy is unfolding thousands of miles from the Persian Gulf. As my colleague Miguel Jorge has developed for Xataka, There is a “secret gas station” in the middle of the ocean. This is an area off the coast of Malaysia, known as EOPL, which functions as a huge ghost car park. There, a shadow fleet of aging ships with their tracking systems (AIS) turned off conduct dangerous ship-to-ship crude transfers. With this maneuver they launder the origin of the oil, passing it off as Malaysian to sell it to independent Chinese refineries and evade the radar of US sanctions. The global earthquake. As Iran searches for oxygen, the collateral damage of this blockade is fracturing the global economy and geopolitics. Behind closed doors, the Iranian social collapse is advancing at a steady pace. A crude report of the Financial Times details that real inflation is already close to 50% and the national currency (the rial) sinks to historic lows. The price of basic products such as cheese and chicken has skyrocketed, and the government admits that more than 191,000 workers have applied for unemployment benefits since the start of the war. Globally, the Straits crisis has shattered the mirage of modern logistics. The collapse of Hormuz It’s not a temporary traffic jam.but a tectonic fault that has broken the “just in time” system and is threatening the hegemony of the petrodollar. Markets, panicking over a prolonged disruption, have pushed a barrel of Brent crude above $120, its highest level since 2022. But the most seismic geopolitical consequence of this war has erupted within the oil cartel: the United Arab Emirates (UAE). will leave OPEC+ May 1st. Fed up with production quotas that limited their income and feeling deeply abandoned by their Arab neighbors in the face of direct attacks from Iran, the Emiratis have decided to fly alone. This breakup leaves Saudi Arabia alone bearing the cost of stabilizing the market, greatly weakens OPEC and gives Donald Trump a diplomatic coup that he had been seeking for years. The final pulse. In the end, this conflict has become a drag race in which no one emerges unscathed. The big question that will decide the outcome of the war is who will go bankrupt first: the fragile and antiquated oil wells of Iran and its exhausted population, or the global consumers and the great Western powers, unable to withstand the skyrocketing fuel prices and the collapse of world shipping routes for much longer. And all this happens under inescapable pressure. While political leaders debate and move their chips thousands of kilometers away, the valves of Kharg Island … Read more

The war in Iran has destroyed another critical supply chain for consumer technology: PCBs

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While the war in Iran is leaving us with a global energy crisis unprecedented, it is also hitting the technology industry squarely in one of its most critical components: printed circuit boards (PCB). These boards are found in basically any device, and in the last month their price has skyrocketed by up to 40%, according to they count from Goldman Sachs. The reason: an attack on a critical plant for the manufacture of PCBs that puts the global supply of these boards in check. Stroke. ANDIn the first days of April, Iranian forces attacked the Jubail petrochemical complex in Saudi Arabia. SABIC (Saudi Basic Industries Corporation) operates in this complex, a company that produces approximately 70% of the world’s supply of high-purity polyphenylene ether (PPE) resin, an essential material for manufacturing the laminates with which PCBs are built. According to they count From Reuters, since the attack, SABIC has been unable to resume production. And that is a problem on a global scale. Raw material at stake. It is not just about the direct attack on Jubail. The conflict has also generated serious disruption in maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf, one of the most critical logistics routes connecting Middle Eastern chemical producers with Asian electronics manufacturers. Added to this is the pressure on copper, which represents around 60% of the total cost of raw materials in PCB manufacturing, according to they count from Victory Giant Technology, one of the largest Chinese suppliers in the sector with clients such as Nvidia. The company warned this month that the conflict could make key materials such as resin and copper even more expensive. According to Reuters, the price of sheet copper has risen up to 30% since the beginning of the year. Qproduction ties. From Daeduck Electronics, a major South Korean PCB manufacturer that supplies Samsung, SK Hynix and AMD, among others, confirmed Reuters that the company has started talks with its customers to pass on the price increases. The company pointed out that the waiting period for materials such as epoxy resin has gone from three weeks to fifteen. A market that was already stressed. PCB prices had already been rising for months due to the skyrocketing demand for AI servers. According to Reutersdemand has accelerated sharply since March, with manufacturers trying to secure supplies before the situation worsens. Goldman Sachs points out that large cloud service providers are willing to take on further increases because they expect demand to outstrip supply for years. On the other hand, research firm Prismark projects that the global PCB sector will grow 12.5% ​​in 2026, reaching $95.8 billion. And PCBs aren’t the only thing affected. The technology supply chain is taking hits from all sides. According to inform The Elec Korea, large Japanese manufacturers of photoresist (a key chemical in chip production) have begun to notify clients such as Samsung and SK Hynix of problems in the supply of gasoline, a raw material that these suppliers obtain more than 40% from the Middle East. Besides, the price of helium (essential gas in the manufacture of semiconductors) has almost doubled after the Iranian attacks on Ras Laffan, in Qatar, which provides about a third of the global supply, according to Fitch Ratings. What does this mean for the consumer. The impact will end up reaching the final price of the products. PCBs are in absolutely everything that has electronics inside, and a 40% increase in their cost is difficult to absorb without the increase being passed on to the user. Manufacturers are already negotiating price transfers with their customers, and these, in turn, will transfer them downstream. The worst thing is the timing, since we are also in the middle of a RAM and storage crisis and the pressure around the markets only increases. Cover image | Random Thinking In Xataka | There is a company that has grown 3,000% in the stock market, even beating the performance of Nvidia: Sandisk

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