Iran

When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, no one dared to cross it. Nobody except a 300 million Russian superyacht

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For months now, the Strait of Hormuz has been one of the places more dangerous of the world to navigate. Oil tankers anchored for weeks, freighters turning around with their empty warehouses and marine insurance with unattainable prices due to the high risk of receiving a missile strike from the coasts of Iran. No one wants to cross those waters while Iran and the United States launch cross-threats and naval mines at each other. In the midst of this chaotic scenario and without warning, a superyacht shaped like a futuristic submarine set sail from Dubai. It crossed one of the most guarded maritime stretches on the planet at the moment and, as if nothing had happened, set course to the paradisiacal coasts of the Maldives islands. A yacht with a single letter. The ship that challenged the maritime blockade of the ayatollahs and the United States is called Motor Yacht A or simply TOin honor of the initial of its owner: the Russian coal oligarch Andrey Melnichenko and that of his wife Aleksandra. The superyacht does not exactly go unnoticed. It measures 129 meters in length and its designer Philippe Starck, who also designed he Venus by Steve Jobs, he had in an interview for Boat International which took just a few seconds to sketch the first strokes of the yacht’s futuristic design TO. “Sometimes a design takes me only 30 seconds,” the designer acknowledged. A floating mansion with all the luxuries. He Motor Yacht A It combines a futuristic exterior with an interior of excessive luxury with capacity for 14 guests in seven cabins and up to 42 crew members. As and how he shelled Robb Reportthe superyacht has three outdoor pools in the aft area (one of them with a glass bottom over its own yacht club), a jacuzzi with aqua massage seats and a helipad. Inside, a large silver-lined staircase with a railing valued at $60,000 stands out, while the master suite, measuring more than 240 m2, incorporates televisions that descend from the ceiling, a rotating bed and bulletproof glass in the windows. In addition, the owner’s suite includes a private bathroom with a bathtub and shower also covered in silver. Altogether, a 2,200 m2 floating mansion worth approximately $300 million, according to the specialized medium SuperYatch Fan. The feat that no one saw coming. As indicated by the last location of your AIS beaconhe Motor Yatch A still was found at Dubai’s Rashid Port on July 4. Something that confirms the specialized YouTube channel The Yacht Reportwhich tracked his movements. According to the information obtained, the TO It sailed along the coast of the United Arab Emirates and took the safe corridor provided by Omani waters, not the Iranian corridor used by tankers and cargo ships, to reach an Omani port the next day. He stayed there for ten days. On July 14, he set sail again, crossed the US military blockade and entered the open waters of the Arabian Sea. Their declared destination, according to your AIS signal, They are the Maldives. The choice of destination is not accidental. In addition to transparent waters and fine white sand, the country serves as a refuge for the yachts of Russian tycoons who want to avoid confiscation of your assets due to sanctions for the war in Ukraine. He Motor Yatch A He was saved, his brother was not.. Melnichenko and his wife They were sanctioned by the European Union in March 2022, just days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Although, according to what was published by Reutersthe millionaire managed to circumvent the blockade by protecting his assets abroad. However, the older brother of Motor Yatch Athe 142 meter sailboat Sailing Yatch Awas trapped in the port of Trieste where still in dispute with the Italian government and today is, almost unintentionally, a tourist attraction of the city. He is not the first millionaire to gamble. It is not the first time that a Russian yacht defies Tehran’s missile batteries or the US blockade by flouting prohibitions. In April, the Northowned by tycoon Alexei Mordashov, followed almost the same route to Oman. He TO has used the same formula based on the unexpected presence of a luxury yacht tiptoeing across the most stressed area of ​​the planet for a geopolitical conflict what has in a lifelessness to energy markets around the world. In Xataka | Anti-drone systems, swimming pools, jacuzzis and live lobster tanks: the price of the most expensive yachts in the world Image | Wikimedia Commons (MatthiasKabel), Superyatch Fan, Boat International.

China closes the helium tap and the US becomes the great beneficiary of the Iran war

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The US has become the main supplier of helium to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, and its market share will likely continue to grow. This is the conclusion of the analysis of customs data that has been done Nikkei Asiawhich places Washington as the great beneficiary of a crisis that combines the war of USA and Israel against Iran and the export restrictions imposed by Beijing. Be that as it may, it is not a minor trend. Helium is an irreplaceable gas during the chip manufacturing process because it is necessary for cooling wafers and in plasma etching or photolithography. In this context Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are three of semiconductor ecosystems most important on the planet, with TSMC, Samsung and SK hynix at the helm, all of them redirecting part of their supply towards the United States. The trigger has been twofold. On the one hand, the crisis in the Middle East has cast doubt on the Asian supply chain amid fears that a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz further complicate access to helium and liquefied natural gas. And on this already unstable ground, China has decided to tighten the screws as much as possible. China has turned off the tap at a very delicate moment The Chinese Government announced on July 10 a temporary veto with immediate effect to helium exportsrelying on its Foreign Trade Law and without giving further explanations. The Ministry of Commerce and the Chinese Customs Administration frame this measure in the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which threatens to cause new bottlenecks in a gas essential for manufacturing integrated circuits. China only produces domestically around 15% or less of the helium it consumes However, at this juncture we are interested in specifying China’s real weight in this market. This country only produces internally around 15% or less of the helium it consumes, so depends on imports from Qatarwhich generates approximately a third of the world’s supply. For this reason, its dependence on the outside borders on critical levels, with estimates that range between 80% and 90%. A quick note before moving forward: Helium is irreplaceable in semiconductor manufacturing because it cannot be synthesized industrially. It is extracted from natural gas deposits with unusually high concentrations of this element, and is used in wafer cooling, plasma etching, chemical and atomic layer deposition, lithography support, and leak detection. Japan and South Korea, exposed in a very different way The exposure of each country to this scenario varies significantly. In 2025, Japan was already obtaining around 60% of its helium imports from the US and 37% from Qatar, which has allowed it to pivot relatively quickly. South Korea, on the other hand, depended on Qatar for 64.7% of its importsa fact that has forced Samsung and SK hynix to move urgently and accept higher prices in new long-term contracts with Linde and Air Products. Helium now joins the rare earths, gallium, germanium and graphite as another chapter in the geopolitical struggle The manufacturing of memory chips is very demanding with the consumption of this gas due to the repeated high-temperature etching and deposition processes required by advanced 3D stacking. Many semiconductor industry analysts expect that American industrial supplierssuch as Air Products, Linde or ExxonMobil, are the big beneficiaries of the tightening of global supply. Be that as it may, helium now joins the rare earths, gallium, germanium and graphite as another chapter in the geopolitical struggle for the resources that support the semiconductor industry. Image | Yuri Shkoda More information | Nikkei Asia In Xataka | Yttrium is another of the many “rare” metals that only China exports. The US just found out the hard way

The US has signed peace with Iran in Versailles. The last time someone did it was the prologue to an unprecedented disaster

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There is a historical irony that is difficult to overcome: the Treaty of Versailles It was signed in the same room (the Hall of Mirrors) where, in 1871, the German Empire was proclaimed after the French defeat. In 1919, France chose that same place on purpose to reverse the humiliation and force Germany to sign its defeat in the same scenario of its triumph. That peace was intended close a war…and twenty years later, Europe was entering an even worse situation. Peace in the same place, again. donald trump has signed an agreement with Iran in a place steeped in history: the Palace of Versailles. The image is powerful because it inevitably refers to the last great peace treaty sealed there, the one from 1919when Europe believed it was healing the wound of the First World War. That peace, however, was an imperfect peace: humiliated Germany, left open economic and political wounds, and fueled resentment that, two decades later, facilitated the rise of Adolf Hitlerthe collapse of the European order and the Second World War. The symbolism today is disturbing because Trump presents this pact as a historic victory, but many see in it the same pattern: a hasty truce, ambiguous concessions and structural problems that remain intact. From surrender to something else. Just a few weeks ago Trump demanded “unconditional surrender” of Iran. He signed memorandum This week it’s practically the opposite. Washington has agreed to release billions in frozen assets, relax sanctions, allow Iranian oil exports and open the door to a reconstruction fund. of 300 billion dollars funded by regional partners. In return, Tehran promises to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, contain its regional allies and continue talking about its nuclear program. The shift is enormous: from maximalist rhetoric to a negotiation that many in Washington consider a strategic transfer. The weapon that defeated Washington. The most striking thing is that Iran did not win this negotiation on the battlefield, but in the global economy. The closure of Hormuz (through which around 20% of the world’s oil passes) unleashed a cimmediate energy crisis. The threat of a global economic collapse was the factor that, according to Trump himselfpushed him to close a quick deal. I feared a spiral similar to that of Herbert Hoover and the Great Depression. Therein lies the great Iranian victory: it has shown that it does not need to militarily defeat the United States to impose conditions; just touch the circulatory system of the world economy. What was not resolved. There is no doubt, the central problem is still alive. The agreement barely touches the Iranian ballistic arsenal, leaves the question of its regional militias in the air and only establishes vague mechanisms to manage its enriched uranium. Trump even has publicly accepted for Iran to keep part of its missiles, something that until recently was a red line. The architecture of the pact is dangerously similar to that of the 2015 nuclear deal which he himself demolished during his first term. The difference is that now he signs it with less pressure and with an Iran that has proven its capacity for economic coercion. A peace that strengthens the adversary. Instead of weakening the regime, the war seems to have consolidated it. The apparatus of the Guardians of the Revolution still intact At its political core, the new leadership presents itself as surviving a direct clash with Washington and the flow of money can reinforce its internal stability. In practice, Trump has saved a regime he claimed he wanted to overthrow. That’s one of the most uncomfortable parallels. with 1919: Sometimes treaties do not close conflicts, they simply reorganize forces and give the actors time to recover. The poison of the 1919 Treaty. When the Treaty of Versailles was signed after the First World War, the winning powers imposed gigantic economic reparations on Germany, the loss of key territories, severe military limitations and, above all, the famous “guilt clause”, which forced Berlin to accept responsibility morale of the entire war. On paper it was a punishment. In practice it was a political bomb watchmaking. German society felt that peace not as closure, but as a historical humiliation that fueled a narrative of national betrayal and desire for revenge. From humiliation to Nazism. That resentment found perfect fuel in the hyperinflation of the 1920s, massive unemployment and the economic collapse after the crash of 1929. It was in that broth that Hitler built his rise: promising to break up Versailles, restore German greatness, and return lost sovereignty. And he did it. He reoccupied the Rhineland, rearmed the country, absorbed Austria, and dismantled the European order as Western democracies tried to buy time with concessions. The peace of 1919 did not prevent the following war; He incubated her slowly. and when broke out in 1939was much more devastating than the first. The lesson of Versailles. The great historical teaching of the Treaty of Versailles It was not that peace failed immediately, but that a very bad peace can incubate a worse war. In 1919 it was believed that the European chaos had been contained and what was done was to postpone it while growing up in silence. Today the risk is not a literal repetition, but the logic is recognizable: United States economic pressure easesIran retains tools of coercion and its nuclear capacity remains not completely neutralized. If Tehran concludes that being on the brink of the bomb is not enough to deter and that the real shield is to become another North Korea, this agreement could end up being remembered not as the end of a war, but as the prologue to a much larger crisis. Image | US NAVY, William Orpen In Xataka | The US entered Iran with the intention of disarming it and changing the regime: it is going to leave by strengthening its position and paying it money In Xataka | Iran always thought it would need a nuclear bomb to defend itself against the US: it has … Read more

We sensed that the peace agreement had been expensive for the US. What we did not imagine is the crazy amount that is going to be paid to Iran

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Exactly 10 years ago, the image of an airplane downloading 400 million of dollars in cash in Iran became one of the most controversial symbols of Barack Obama’s foreign policy. In fact, Trump spent years using that episode as proof that Washington had “paid” for peace. Ten years later, history repeats itself… but with many more zeros. The peace bill. The truth is that it was sensed from the first moment that the cease-fire between the United States and Iran was not exactly going to come free for Washington. What no one imagined was the magnitude of the price: up to 300,000 million of dollars in the form of a reconstruction and investment fund to relaunch the Iranian economy. The figure is so enormous that it completely transforms the narrative of the war. What began as a campaign of maximum pressure and bombings on nuclear facilities has ended up mutating into something much more uncomfortable for the White House: an agreement where the supposedly punished person can leave with a historic financial injection if it complies. Kharg Island From punishing to financing. The paradox could not be more brutal for Donald Trump. For years he built a good part of his speech attacking the Barack Obama nuclear pactdenouncing that he had filled Tehran with “pallets of money.” Now his administration is promoting something that potentially multiplies that concession on another scale. The argument is that the money will not come directly from the US Government, but from Western and Asian companies that would enter Iran if sanctions are lifted. But the geopolitical effect is the same: Iran’s economic survival becomes guaranteed by a deal that Washington desperately needed to close. Hormuz, the key. It we were counting yesterday. The real trigger for the turn was not nuclear, but economic. When Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, it left more than a fifth of the world’s oil and gas trade up in the air. The market held out for a few days, but the pressure began to be unbearable. More than 500 ships were trapped, maritime traffic plummeted and the world’s largest shipping companies began to warn that reopening the route would not be immediate. Everything changed there. The war ceased to be a regional issue and became a direct threat to the global economy and, above all, to the pockets of the American consumer. Washington chose oil. That’s where the interests of Washington and Israel diverged. While Benjamin Netanyahu wanted keep pressing To further weaken the Iranian regime and even force a change in regional balance, Trump saw the domestic political cost of prolonging the energy crisis. With elections approaching and the price of oil as a threat, the priority stopped being to subdue Iran and became reopening Hormuz as soon as possible. In practice, this meant accepting a much more limited agreementfocused on navigation, ceasefire and future nuclear negotiations. Israel doesn’t see it. I was counting this morning the wall street journal that in Jerusalem the reading is almost opposite. The fear is not just that Iran will receive billions, but that it will do so without immediately handing over all of its enriched uranium or completely giving up rebuilding its nuclear program. For many Israeli strategists, this means that Tehran gains oxygentime and resources to rearm. Furthermore, they see profound damage to American credibility: after months of military and economic pressure, the end result looks more like a purchased pause than a strategic victory. A peace that strengthens some. The agreement, therefore, leaves an uncomfortable and quite surreal image: the United States bombed, pressured and isolated Iran to end up offering the conditions for its reconstruction. The Iranian regime comes out beaten, yes, but alive, with the Strait as a negotiating weapon and with the possibility of receiving an avalanche of foreign investment. Of course, Trump could possibly sell it as stability and containment nuclear. But seen from the outside, the feeling is very different: peace has not only cost Washington dearly, but it may end up financing the very actor it tried to corner and overthrow. Image | US Navy, Google Earth In Xataka | We have been fearing the Apocalypse for 100 days due to the closure of Hormuz. The blow is going to be given to us by a heat wave in China In Xataka | Ukraine turned drones into hunters. A helicopter shot down in Hormuz has transformed them into a Spielberg film

The US had a ship with 2,000 marines ready to invade Iran. Now he has sent it right to the place where China worries the most

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An image that is still studied in military academies occurred in 1942, when during the call Battle of Midway The Americans managed to sink four Japanese aircraft carriers in just a few hours. That battle showed that, in the Pacific, moving a handful of ships to the right place could upset the strategic balance of an entire region, a lesson that continues to influence American naval planning more than eight decades later. A movement and what it reveals. For weeks there was speculation that the United States would expand its confrontation with Iran through more aggressive operations on the ground in the Persian Gulf. However, one of the most significant military moves has occurred far from the Middle East. He USS Boxeran amphibious assault ship capable of landing troops, vehicles and combat aircraft has abandoned any potential role in a ground operation against Iran and has set course to the South China Sea. On board is the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, some 2,000 troops specialized in rapid interventions and amphibious assaults. The decision suggests that Washington considers that the main strategic challenge today is not in Tehran, but in the growing rivalry with China. From the Gulf to the China Sea. When the Boxer left San Diego In March, in the midst of the crisis with Iran, many interpreted its deployment as a way to keep open the option of carrying out limited landings or capturing strategic objectives if the conflict escalated. However, after a logistics stopover in Singapore and a transit through the Andaman Sea, the ship has reappeared in the South China Sea integrated into the Indo-Pacific Command structure. It is a platform comparable in concept to the Juan Carlos I Spanish, capable of operating landing craft, amphibious vehicles, helicopters and F-35 fighters, allowing it to act as both a light aircraft carrier and a ground intervention force. What changes for Iran. The boxer exit It further reduces the chances of a US amphibious operation against Iranian targets. While the USS Tripoli continues in the region performing functions focused on air strikes and naval support, Washington seems to be betting on a strategy based on blockades, precision bombings and economic pressure, avoiding committing troops on the ground. The decision can be interpreted as a partial military de-escalation, although it also reflects a simpler reality: the United States believes it can contain Iran without deploying significant amphibious forces, while competition with China requires a constant presence and visible in Asia. The concern of Asian allies. Reuters counted that the issue was very present in the Singapore Shangri-La Dialoguewhere numerous Asian defense officials expressed doubts about whether the United States will be able to simultaneously maintain its focus on the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific. Although Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth insisted in which Washington can manage both scenarios at the same time, countries such as the Philippines, Japan, Australia, Canada and New Zealand they are reinforcing their military capabilities and deepening their mutual ties to complement the American security umbrella. The goal is to build a stronger regional network in the face of growing pressure from Beijing. Japan and the new security architecture. Japan is becoming one of the pillars of that strategy. Tokyo has made more flexible historically its arms export rules and aspires to act as a connection point between the different partners in the region. The idea is that deterrence against China do not depend exclusively of the United States, but of an increasingly integrated network of countries capable of sharing equipment, training and military cooperation. This shift reflects the extent to which the perception of China’s military rise is transforming Asian security policy. The center of gravity of global competition. The arrival of the Boxer coincides with intense military activity in the Indo-Pacific. The USS George Washington aircraft carrier has started new patrols from Japan, while the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning operates in the Western Pacific under surveillance of neighboring countries. In this context, the deployment of a US amphibious force in the South China Sea has a strong symbolic and operational value. Because beyond the crisis with Iran, the Boxer’s journey summarizes an increasingly evident trend: although the Middle East continues to generate immediate conflicts, the great strategic competition that defines Washington’s priorities is being fought in Asia and, especially, in the face of the rise of China. Image | US Navy In Xataka | China has resurrected the strangest concept of the Cold War: a plane, a ship and a missile launcher in one machine In Xataka | Something is happening over the skies of Chile: the US and China are fighting their particular “cold war” in silence

That Iran shot down a US F-15 was something unusual. The problem is that they have opened the missile… and everything points to China

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In 1960, when an American U-2 spy plane was shot down over the Soviet UnionWashington initially believed it was facing a military problem. He ended up discovering that the incident had diplomatic consequences much larger and blew up a summit between the two superpowers. Because sometimes a single downed plane reveals a story much bigger than the battle in which it fell. The takedown that changed the conversation. He downing of an F-15E on Iran last month was, in itself, an extraordinary event. It had been decades since a United States fighter had been shot down by enemy fire, and the rescue movie operation later, with one of the crew hiding for two days in the Zagros Mountains, underlined the seriousness of the episode. However, as investigations continue, the incident is shifting from being a story about Iranian military capabilities to something else: a story about China. According to cited sources by NBC News the suspicion that the plane was hit by a portable anti-aircraft missile (MANPADS) of Chinese manufacture has shifted the focus from the battlefield to a much more uncomfortable question for Washington: to what extent Beijing is helping to sustain Tehran’s military capacity. More important than the missile. From a military point of view, a portable anti-aircraft missile is not a revolutionary weapon. Its appeal lies precisely on the contrary: It is relatively cheap, easy to deploy, and capable of threatening even extremely sophisticated platforms if circumstances are favorable. Hence, what has aroused American interest is not so much the type of weapon used as its possible origin. If suspicions are correct, the shootdown would demonstrate that Chinese technology has ended up participatingdirectly or indirectly, in one of the more symbolic hits suffered by American aviation in years. From that perspective, the discussion then stops revolving around how Iran managed to shoot down an F-15 and begins to focus on what role played China to make it possible. The shadow of broader support. Because suspicions are not limited to the missile. US sources also suggest that China may have provided Iran with radar systems capable of detecting stealth aircraft and access to space capabilities that would facilitate the location of targets. So far none of these accusations have been conclusively proven publicly and Beijing categorically rejects them, but together they paint an image that is worrying in Washington: that of a technological support network which, without involving direct military involvement, could significantly increase Iran’s ability to challenge the United States and its allies. In this context, the downed F-15 becomes tangible proof of a broader phenomenon that US officials have been denouncing for some time. The contradiction of American diplomacy. The situation is especially delicate because the United States simultaneously needs to contain Iran and keep channels open with China. Beijing is the main buyer of the iranian oil and one of the few actors with enough influence to put economic pressure on Tehran. During negotiations to reach a ceasefire, the Trump administration sought precisely that collaboration. But every new accusation on Chinese missiles, radars or satellites used by Iran complicates that balance. Washington thus finds itself in an uncomfortable position: it needs China to contribute to stabilizing the region while accusing it of providing tools that strengthen one of its main adversaries in the Middle East. The real message. That’s why the downing of the F-15 It has a relevance that goes far beyond the loss of a plane. What is at stake is not only the effectiveness of Iranian defenses, but the American perception that more and more regional conflicts are connected to global strategic competition. against China. The investigation on the missile seeks to determine how the fighter fell, but also who was behind the technology that made it possible. In a sense, Washington has opened up the missile to examine it piece by piece, and in doing so has discovered that the biggest questions no longer point solely to Tehran. They aim more and more towards Beijingwhere the United States believes is a growing part of the economic, technological and military infrastructure that allows its rivals to challenge its power in different corners of the world. Image | U.S. Force In Xataka | The US has copied its very cheap drone swarms from Iran and Russia. The problem is what Starlink asks for connecting them In Xataka | The war in the East has reached an unexpected agreement: one where the US does not discuss Iran’s missiles, bombs or uranium

How the Panama Canal is being lined thanks to the war in Iran

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When an international conflict breaks out, there is always someone who manages to take advantage. As the world watches with concern the Third Gulf War, thousands of kilometers from missiles and drones, the Panama Canal has been crowned the unexpected winner of this global chaos. What began as an energy crisis in the Persian Gulf has become, for the small Central American nation, a gold mine of historic dimensions. Since the attacks triggered the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz – the world’s main artery for fuel transportation, through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas trade transits – maritime trade has entered a phase of genuine desperation. The urgency to move goods has reached such a point that, as confirmed by Ricaurte Vásquez Moralesadministrator of the Panama Canal, a shipping company paid 4 million dollars in an auction just to skip the line and cross the interoceanic waterway as soon as possible. The mechanism of urgency After the Hormuz blockade, traffic through the Panamanian canal has experienced a general increase of close to 11%, registering peaks of up to an additional 20% on the days of greatest demand, as reported by the Panama Canal Authority itself BBC. During the first half of fiscal year 2026 – from October 2025 to March 2026 – the channel registered 6,288 transits, 224 more than in the same period of the previous year, according to data presented by the channel authority to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. In order to absorb this flow, nature has also been complicit. The deputy administrator of the channel, Ilya Espino de Marotta, explained to cnn that unusually intense rains during the dry season have kept Gatún and Alhajuela lakes at maximum levels, which has made it possible to manage between 40 and 41 daily transits compared to the usual average of 36. A notable recovery if one remembers that during the El Niño drought between 2023 and 2024, daily transits fell to 24. “The Panama Canal is open and fully operational,” assured Vásquez Morales. “Amid all the geopolitical complexities of today’s world, the Panama Canal remains open and reliable.” But the true profitability is not only in the volume, but in the price of urgency. The companies they pay a fixed rate between 300,000 and 400,000 dollars to transit with prior reservation. Those who do not have it must compete in a relentless auction system where the highest bidder takes the coveted spot. Víctor Vial, vice president of finance of the channel, detailed in the same presentation to investors that the average auction price before the crisis ranged between 135,000 and 140,000 additional dollars. After the start of the conflict, “that average increased to approximately $385,000 between March and April.” Desperation has pushed some oil companies to pay more than 3 million additional dollars to avoid waits, according to Bloomberg. The absolute record of 4 million is explained by Vásquez himself: “It was a ship that transported fuel to Europe, but they diverted it to Singapore, and it had to get there because Singapore is running out of fuel,” declared. With this extraordinary injection, Vial estimated that the growth of the channel’s income will be between 10% and 15% this year, although he warned that “we are still not doing the math or modifying our projections.” A logistical lifesaver, not a replacement The profitability of the channel is explained by the geography of the panic. More than 80% of the oil that usually transited through Hormuz was destined for the Asian continent, according to Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). When that route was blocked, buyers from Japan, South Korea, India and China turned to the United States Gulf Coast. According to data from the maritime intelligence company Kpler cited by BloombergUS crude oil exports through the Panama Canal have exceeded 200,000 barrels per day, approaching their maximum since July 2022. The logic is implacable. A trip from the US Gulf Coast to Japan via the canal takes almost a month, while going around Africa around the Cape of Good Hope would take almost twice as long. “With all the bombings, missiles, drones, companies say it is safer and less expensive to cross through the Panama Canal,” explained Rodrigo Noriegalawyer and analyst in Panama City. “All of this is affecting global supply chains.” Despite the boom, experts are categorical when comparing both routes. The EIA data, updated as of March 2026illustrate it crudely: in the first half of 2025, 20.9 million barrels of oil per day transited the Strait of Hormuz, compared to the 2.3 million that crossed the Panama Canal in its entire fiscal year 2025. A ratio of almost one to nine. Furthermore, VLCC-type supertankers—capable of transporting up to two million barrels in a single trip—are simply too big for the Panamanian locks, as both France 24 and OilPrice point out. Panama is a golden shortcut, but it does not have the muscles to replace the massive flow of the Persian Gulf. Marc Gilbert, global leader of the Geopolitics Center at Boston Consulting Group, summed it up: “What is really happening is that energy from the United States is replacing the volumes that cargoes from the Gulf previously sent to Asia.” And he added that what this crisis shows is that “when a sea lane fails, the entire system must adapt.” From economic bonanza to diplomatic minefield Panama’s sudden strategic prominence has not gone unnoticed by the great powers. As reported by Al JazeeraWashington and its allies accused China at the end of April of applying “selective economic pressure”, retaining dozens of Panamanian-flagged ships in Chinese ports in retaliation for the annulment, by the Panamanian Supreme Court, of a port concession that a company linked to Hong Kong maintained over the ports of Balboa and Cristóbal. Beijing categorically denied the accusations. The spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Lin Jian, described them as statements that “lack foundation and distort reality”, and in turn accused the United … Read more

While we were looking at gasoline, the Iran crisis has skyrocketed the price of asphalt. And the roads of half the world are already suffering from it

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A few months ago we published in Xataka an article with the following title: Spanish roads have a problem in 2026: repairing a kilometer of asphalt is more expensive than ever. It was February 26, 2026. In it we analyzed the problem that Spain had encountered. Our roads, prepared for a hot and dry climate (especially in the southern half) had suffered very intense days of almost constant rain. It didn’t take long for the holes to appear and neither did the complaints in the media and social networks about the supposed poor condition of the roads. Trying to understand if this is really the case or not and why it is estimated that the State needs to invest some of 13,000 million euros to fix themwe looked to see if it had become more expensive the price of asphalt in recent years. Something that, indeed, was reflected in the aforementioned article. But this, as we said, was published on February 26. Two days later, on February 28, we woke up to the news that the Government of the United States and Israel had launched a joint bombing offensive against Iran. The rest, we already know. Crisis in oil supplya battle for open and close the Hormuz canal and fuel increases for passenger cars and airplanes. But there is something that has also risen. And that something is called asphalt. More expensive than ever (now yes) And in less than three months, which seem to have lasted a lifetime, the headline has become outdated. At the end of last month, Asefma (Spanish Association of Asphalt Mixture Manufacturers) already warned that the price of asphalt was skyrocketing. According to this association, in March alone the average price of asphalt had risen 8.2%. Nothing compared to April, when it did so by 49.3%. He overrun of the final product is due, above all, to the increase in the price of bitumen that acts as a binder for asphalt and is where the increase in the price of oil has the most impact. Asefma has come to consider that the increase in the price of asphalt was putting at risk the viability of the signed contracts or even whether they will be fulfilled or completed if the works have already begun. The truth is that, beyond the possible pressure measures of the employers’ association that defends the interests of its associates, the price of asphalt has skyrocketed inside and outside our country. To understand why asphalt has become more expensive you have to understand what makes it up. The pavement of our roads is made up of dirt and stones that are compacted. They serve as a base but also cushion the weight placed on them to delay the breaking of the asphalt. This asphalt is a bituminous mixture that uses bitumen of different intensity depending on where the road is going to be built. Those that resist heat better tend to be less flexible and those that drain better tend to be more flexible. Therefore, the latter They can melt when temperatures are very high. All components have been affected by the increase in the price of oil. To begin with, the earth and stones have to be transported by heavy vehicles with very high diesel consumption, precisely the fuel that has become most expensive. The same thing happens with the refinement of bitumen or asphalt (what we ultimately step on). If energy costs rise, the price of this product rises. But, in addition, the price of bitumen is closely linked to the price of oil. This product is made from the densest oil in the barrel, the least usable in energy terms and the most expensive to convert into fuel. This product is what is refined to obtain bitumen and, with bombs falling on Iran and the subsequent response on neighboring countries, the production and export of raw materials It has been very diminished, obviously. The American company Victory Paving figure in an increase of between 2 and 3% in the price of asphalt for every 10 dollars that a barrel of oil rises. They also argue that the shortage is greater because the rise in energy costs has an impact on a drop in the production of refineries and these usually prioritize the production of diesel and gasoline over asphalt refining because the fuels are more profitable. Richard Hudock, president of Derry Construction Co., pointed out to the American media who had never suffered a crisis so serious in the 42 years that they had been working, ensuring that the impact of the price of oil on the raw materials and fuel to be able to operate their vehicles put their job at risk this summer. In Argus They point out that the situation in Africa is no better. They point out that the bitumen that reaches countries like South Africa has become almost exclusively dependent on trade with Greece and Türkiye, once the Middle East tap has been closed. This has caused the price of each freighter to triple. If the price of asphalt has grown in the United States, South Africa and Spain, doubts have also grown about what to do in these cases. In the first of these countries It has been proposed to delay the patching of certain streets or highways. But this can cause the problem to worsen and, even if the price of oil falls again in the future, the damage will be deeper and the investment to be made would have to be larger. And the problem is that in the United States, the United Kingdom and Spain we face the same problem. The winters In all of these countries it has been very cold or very rainy, so the condition of the asphalt has been compromised. In BBC They report that the United Kingdom had already increased the budget to repair its roads but that the increase in the price of oil has put this item in check. The result, as … Read more

While everyone was looking at Hormuz, Russia has found a much bigger secret route. And drones do not stop arriving in Iran

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During the Cold War, Western intelligence services came to suspect that some Soviet freighters that apparently transported grain or machinery were actually hiding military equipment and technology sensitive under false covers. The problem was that, once inside certain internal routes controlled by Moscow and its allies, tracking them became extraordinarily difficult even for the greatest naval powers on the planet. While the world watches Hormuz. For months, the Strait of Hormuz has become the perfect symbol of Western pressure on Iran: US aircraft carriers, oil tankers diverting routes, marine insurance fired and constant threats on one of the great energy bottlenecks on the planet. However, while all international attention was focused there, Russia and Iran have been consolidating a much less visible and probably much more uncomfortable route for Washington: the Caspian Sea. It The New York Times said the weekend. This enormous space of inland water in northern Iran, usually ignored in geopolitical analyses, is being transformed into a true strategic highway to move goods, drones, military components and technology away from the direct reach of the United States. The photo. The most revealing image came when Israel bombed the Iranian port of Bandar Anzali, in the heart of the Caspian, in one of the most significant attacks of its campaign against Iran. The target was not in the Persian Gulf or Hormuz, but hundreds of kilometers further north. It was a clear sign that real logistical warfare no longer revolves solely around the most famous strait on the planet. The route that keeps Iran alive. The importance of the Caspian for Tehran has grown spectacularly since the pressure on Hormuz intensified. Russian and Iranian ships now transport wheat, corn, sunflower oil, animal feed and all kinds of of essential supplies who previously arrived via more vulnerable routes. Four Iranian Caspian ports are working at full capacity to absorb this growing traffic, while Moscow has begun to redirect millions of tons of goods that previously crossed the Black Sea. It turns out that the true strategic core is not in the cereal. According to US officials, Russia is using that route to send drone components to Iran to help it rebuild part of the arsenal lost during the last fighting with Israel and the United States. The relationship is especially symbolic because for years It was Iran that supplied Russia with Shahed drones for the war in Ukraine. Now the flow has partially reversed: Moscow manufactures its own versions under license and returns technology, components and military expertise to Tehran using the Caspian as a protected corridor. A perfect sea to avoid sanctions. The great advantage of the Caspian for Russia and Iran is that it is an extraordinarily difficult to control from outside. Unlike the Persian Gulf, where the US naval presence dominates much of the maritime traffic, in the Caspian they can only operate the five coastal countries. The United States cannot intercept ships there or impose direct blockades. Furthermore, a large part of the ships sail with transponders offdisappearing from satellite tracking systems and feeding an increasingly opaque network of “ghost ships.” In fact, Western analysts describe the Caspian as the ideal place for discreet military transfers and sanctions evasion. Dark shipping traffic has skyrocketed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and both Moscow and Tehran have perfected methods to hide real shipments, routes and operators. It is no coincidence that Ukraine attacked the Russian port of Olya in 2024, accusing it of being a logistics center for the transfer of Iranian drone components. Nor that Israel Bandar Anzali will hit. Everyone seems to have understood that a logistical rearguard is being built there that is much more resistant than it appears. Moscow’s strategic obsession. Plus: for the Kremlin, the Caspian is not just a temporary solution derived from sanctions or the war in Ukraine. Russia and Iran have two decades imagining a gigantic trade corridor that connects the Baltic with the Indian Ocean, crossing Russia, the Caspian and Iran to avoid routes controlled by the West. The project includes new portsrailway lines and renewal of aging fleets, although many of these plans remain on paper due to lack of resources and the geographical difficulties of the Caspian. Still, the war has accelerated the strategic logic behind that idea: creating an alternative system of commercial and military circulation outside the reach of Western sanctions. For Putin, furthermore, the balance is delicate. Needs to support Iran as a regional ally and military partner, but do so in an all-too-visible way could deteriorate even more so its relationship with Washington and with several Arab countries important for Russian energy trade. The Caspian offers precisely that: sufficient support, but far from the media and military focus that Hormuz dominates. America’s great blind spot. Much of the Western concern arises from a very uncomfortable feeling: for years, the Caspian hardly occupied any space in American strategic planning. Experts in Washington recognize that the region functions almost like a black hole diplomat divided between different military commands and bureaucratic departments. Thus, while the world observed aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf or drones over Ukraine, Russia and Iran took advantage of an immense, opaque and difficult to monitor geographic space to weave a logistics network that connects both conflicts. The problem for the United States is not that the Caspian completely replaces Hormuz, because it cannot do so, especially in massive oil exports. The real problem is that even under extreme military pressure, sanctions and naval blockades, Iran continues to find ways to stay connectedrearm and receive outside support. And each drone, each component and each shipment that silently crosses the Caspian reinforces an increasingly evident idea: while everyone was looking at the Strait of Hormuz, Russia and Iran they were building an alternative route much more difficult to stop. Image | PexelsNASA In Xataka | We sensed that Iran’s attacks on the US had been important. In reality, they were devastating In Xataka | While the whole world looks at … Read more

Iran did to the US what Ukraine did to Russia in Operation Spiderweb

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In the first weeks of the war, published reports on the damage inflicted by Iran to bases and radars of Washington in the Middle East. For example, attacks on 14 US military sites or air defense facilities were documented, or the bombing of a US base in Kuwaitthe first time in years that an enemy fighter jet hit a US base. However, it has now just become known that, in reality, it has been much worse. The war that the images began to reveal. For years, Western armies assumed that absolute control of the air and satellites was enough to hide damage, movements and weaknesses in the middle of a war… until recent conflicts began to demonstrate just the opposite. In Ukraine, simple commercial photographs Taken from space, they allowed Russian convoys to be followed, bombers to be located, and destroyed facilities to be detected long before governments acknowledged anything. To that mission he called it Spiderweb. It so happens that the same thing is happening now in the Middle East. What began as a campaign presented by Washington as a punishment operation against Iran has ended up leaving an image much more uncomfortable: that satellite photographs are showing a level of destruction on US facilities much higher than publicly admitted. The uncomfortable discovery. Latest Washington Post analysis More than a hundred satellite images have revealed that Iran hit at least 228 military structures or equipment Americans distributed throughout bases in the Middle East, a figure much higher than that officially recognized. The impacts hit hangars, barracks, fuel tanks, Patriot systems, THAAD radarscommunications centers, electrical installations and even strategic aircraft, making it clear that Tehran was not launching symbolic or indiscriminate attacks. The most delicate thing for the United States is that many of these images initially came from Iranian media and were subsequently verified through European systems and other independent commercial sources. In other words, the initial narrative of limited attacks began to collapse when the images began to show something much more serious: that Iran had achieved penetrate advanced defenses and hit critical American infrastructure in numerous countries at the same time. Damage to Camp Arifjan in Kuwait visible on March 4 Iran found the weak point of the bases. Wapo counted that one of the most striking aspects of the attacks is the precision with which they were executed. Military analysts highlighted the absence of random craters and the concentration of impacts on specific targets, a sign that Iran had very detailed prior intelligence on US facilities. The attacks were not limited to military runways or depots traditional facilities, they also hit gymnasiums, lodgings, mess halls, and staff buildings, reflecting a deliberate attempt to increase human casualties and force the United States to empty entire bases (as, in fact, that’s how it happened). Because several facilities ended up being considered too dangerous to operate normally, causing partial evacuations and the transfer of troops beyond Iranian reach. Some bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, used to launch attacks against Iran or deploy HIMARS systems, were especially punishedfueling the feeling that Tehran had managed to quickly identify which platforms were directly participating in the campaign. Nine fuel tanks at the Ali al-Salem air base in Kuwait were damaged Drones changed everything. Much of this battlefield transformation is directly related to a lesson learned in Ukraine: cheap and unidirectional attack drones are eroding the traditional advantage of great powers. American experts recognize that the Pentagon did not adapt its bases quickly enough to this new threat, despite spending years observing how relatively simple drones destroyed armored vehicles, radars or critical infrastructure in other conflicts. Although many Iranian drones carried reduced explosive charges, they were extremely difficult to intercept and they could attack stationary targets with enormous precision. This forced the consumption of gigantic quantities of Patriot and THAAD interceptors, dangerously reducing American and allied reserves in just a few weeks. The result was paradoxical: the most advanced military power in the world began to be forced to play defense around its own bases, while Iran found relatively cheap ways to overwhelm multibillion-dollar anti-aircraft systems. The enormous hidden wear. While Washington publicly insisted that the damage did not significantly alter the military campaign, the images they showed a more complex reality. Some key facilities were damaged considered “extensive” even by American officials, and part of the regional command had to be relocated out of the Middle East. As we said, the headquarters of the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain was one of the most affected areasto the point of moving functions to Florida, while the internal debate grows over whether certain bases will operate as before. Worrying signs also emerged on structural failures: Strategic aircraft repeatedly parked in vulnerable positions, insufficiently protected tactical centers, and a shortage of hardened shelters for critical personnel and equipment. All of this fueled one conclusion: that the United States had underestimated both Iranian resilience and the speed with which modern wars are making transparent facilities that previously seemed untouchable. The true strategic signal that this war leaves. Beyond the specific damage, what really worries strategists and military personnel is the change of perception left by satellite images. For decades, the presence of US bases throughout the Middle East functioned as a symbol of absolute control and immediate response capacity, but now those same facilities appear exposedvulnerable and permanently observed from the air and from space. If you will, the conflict has left a feeling that is difficult to ignore: that Iran may not be able to defeat the United States militarily in a conventional confrontation, but it can. inflict enough damageattrition and political pressure to profoundly alter the US strategic calculation in the region. And that idea that began with Spiderweb operation in Ukrainemultiplied by hundreds of photographs of destroyed hangars, hit radars and partially emptied bases, may end up being one of the most important consequences of the entire war. Image | Iran media, Planet In Xataka | Türkiye has taken a look at the … Read more

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