Iran

The Iran war has disrupted the jet fuel market. So Lufthansa has canceled 20,000 flights

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The war in Iran has punished many sectors, but few have been as shaken as aviation. First for the closure of much of the Middle East airspace, causing the worst crisis that airlines have suffered since the pandemic, and later due to fear of an escalation in the price of flights. Now to these fears we have added another one that is already taking shape: the cancellation of thousands of servicesconvicted of the scarcity of jet fuel. Lufthansa just demonstrated How serious is that threat? The (other) hangover of the Iran war. That the war in Iran threatens to impact airports around the world is nothing new. In fact he already did it in its first barswhen Tehran launched a series of attacks on the rest of the Persian Gulf countries that they blocked part of the region’s air traffic and hubs as important as the terminals in Doha or Dubai. Over the last few weeks, however, two major threats have been taking shape, especially considering that we are on the verge of summer and the international flow of tourists. has been growing for years: that the war skyrocket the price of flights or (even worse) that forces Cancel services. Checking the grills. Proof of how real (and well-founded) these fears are is that between March and April several airlines have acknowledged that they will have to retouch their grills. On March 17 for example Reuters revealed that SAS, a Scandinavian company, planned to cancel a thousand flights due to the rise in fuel prices. Delta Airlines, Air Canada, Cathay Pacific either Air New Zealand They have taken similar measures, tweaking their operations. Even the Dutch KLM has had no choice but to suspend 160 services scheduled for April. One figure: 20,000 flights. If there is a company that has shown how critical the situation is, it is the German Lufthansa, one of the largest airlines of the world. Financial Times (FT) has advanced that the company will cancel around 20,000 flights between May and October to save fuel, which represents one of the biggest cuts in the sector to adapt to the war in Iran. To be more precise, the German company will eliminate 120 daily flights starting next week and will dispense with those routes departing from Munich and Frankfurt that are not profitable. Trimming will be applied well into the fall. “The price has doubled”. “In total, about 20,000 short-haul flights will be eliminated from the program through October, equivalent to approximately 40,000 metric tons of jet fuel, the price of which has doubled since the outbreak of the conflict with Iran,” explains the company, which has confirmed the cancellations coinciding with a summit of the EU focused on war. Click on the image to go to the tweet. Fuel for six weeks. Lufthansa’s decision is much better understood if one takes into account the latest wake up call of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which a few days ago warned that the jet fuel reserves that Europe manages guarantee operations only in the short term. The notice came from the mouth of the organization’s executive director, Fatih Birol, who took advantage an interview with the Associated Press to warn of the coming panorama. “We are in a critical situation and this will have serious consequences for the global economy. The longer this continues, the worse it will be for economic growth and inflation around the world. Some countries may have more energy than others, but none, absolutely none, is immune to the crisis,” Birol reflected. before stopping at the specific case of Europe and the aeronautical sector: “We have perhaps six weeks of jet fuel. Is it the only warning sign? No. Apart from Birol or the trickle of cancellations announced by airlines such as KLM or Lufthansa, there are other indicators that reveal the extent to which the sector views its jet supply with concern. The EU is already being considered impose a mandatory fuel distribution, in an effort reminiscent of that deployed during the pandemic. Not only that. In Brussels it is already spoken to look for alternative supply sources, such as jet fuel produced in the US, or the release of strategic reserves. Click on the image to go to the tweet. Tickets 24% more expensive. In the United Kingdom, airlines have asked also to the authorities to relax noise regulations or reduce taxes on flights to address supply shortages. It makes sense considering how the war is impacting prices. The BBC has disclosed a study by the consulting firm Teneo that estimates that the conflict is already being felt in air fares: on average, it estimates that the cheapest tickets are 24% more expensive than a year ago, which is explained both by the price of fuel and the route diversions caused by the war. A percentage: 40%. If the war in Iran has served anything, it is to understand (remember, rather) the strategic role that the Strait of Hormuz plays in global supply chains. Its waters not only circulate the fifth part of the world’s oil and LNG, as well urea moves for fertilizer, helium for technology industry…and (exactly!) good part of aircraft fuel. It is estimated that more than 20% of the jet fuel transported by sea last year was channeled through the strait. If we talk about Europe, that percentage is even bigger. The war has not only hit that traffic, strangled by the closure of Hormuz, it has also paralyzed supplies from Kuwait, heavy weight of the sector, and has led other countries to apply protectionist policies. For example, China it did not take long to prohibit exports of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. As if all of the above were not enough, kerosene itself and its nature complicate the picture: Fuel cannot be stored for long without degrading, making their supply chains more sensitive to disruptions like those caused by war. Are these all warning signs? No. With summer just around the corner and a million-dollar … Read more

one where there are mines, bodyguards, an alliance with Iran… and no sign of the US

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In the late 1980s, during the Iran-Iraq War, the American frigate USS Samuel B. Roberts hit a mine in the Persian Gulf and nearly sank, forcing its crew to fight for hours to keep it afloat in one of the United States Navy’s most memorable emergency operations. The episode left a clear lesson that still applies today: in certain areas, an invisible threat can paralyze entire routes and change the balance of power without the need for a single shot. The European plan. He had exclusive the wall street journal that Europe has begun to design its own strategy to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical points in global energy trade, after weeks of war and blockade. The idea is not to intervene during the conflict, but prepare a subsequent operation that allows maritime traffic to be reactivated with safety guarantees. To this end, a broad coalition of countries willing to provide naval means and coordination is being put together, with the aim of restoring confidence to shipping companies and insurers. There is no doubt, the approach reflects a clear priority: stabilize the flow of trade without getting caught in a direct military escalation. Mission without Washington. The most striking element of the plan is the intention to exclude the United States of the operation, something unusual in this type of international deployments. The European proposal seeks to rely only on non-belligerent countries, which means leaving out the actors directly involved in the war and reducing the perception of confrontation. This decision is not only technical, but deeply politicalsince it responds to recent tensions between Washington and several European capitals. At the same time, generates internal doubts on whether a mission without American backing will have sufficient weight or deterrent capacity. Mines, escorts and a delicate balance with Iran. The core of the plan goes through three clear phases: first, unblock the exit of the trapped ships and then clear any possible mines deployed in the area. Finally, establish a military escort system that guarantees safe passage. In this scheme, Europe plays with a specific advantage, its capacity in demining operationswhere it has more resources than the United States. However, it all depends on a key factor: Iran’s acceptance, since any operation will require coordination with the coastal countries to avoid incidents. This turns the mission into a diplomatic balancing act as important as the military deployment. Skepticism. Although specific truces and temporary openings of the strait have been announced, the consensus among experts is that the situation far from stable. The presence of possible mines, episodes of shooting at ships and political uncertainty keep traffic paralyzed and insurance costs skyrocket. Hundreds of ships they are still blockedand companies in the sector are not willing to return without solid guarantees. In this context, European prudence responds to a complex reality: Opening the strait is not only a political decision, but a long and risky technical operation. Europe wants to act, but in its own way. The plan also reflects a desire for autonomy strategic, with France and the United Kingdom at the forefront, leading an initiative that seeks to demonstrate their own capacity in maritime security. The participation of countries like Germany or Italy It points to a larger scale operation, although conditioned by legal frameworks and parliamentary decisions. Still, they persist internal differences about the role the United States should play and about the right time to intervene. In other words, Europe thus tries to project unity while managing its own divisions. The background: uneasy alliance. In practice, the mission design involves a rather obvious paradox, because to guarantee the security of the strait, Europe will need to coordinate, directly or indirectly, with Iranthe same actor who has contributed to blocking it. In other words, the approach reveals to what extent the priority is to avoid a new escalation and rebuild a minimum of operational confidence in the area. At the same time, of course, it suggests a change in “nuclear” focus regarding Washingtonbetting on a more negotiated and less coercive route. A global balance. If you like, what is at stake is not only the expected reopening of the maritime route sooner or later, but rear stability of an artery through which an essential part of the world’s energy circulates. From that perspective, the way in which Europe manages this crisis will mark its role on the international stage, as well as its relationship with the United States and with regional powers. In an environment of tense alliances and divergent decisions, the european plan For Hormuz, it is emerging as a very risky bet that combines military capacity, diplomacy and political calculation in a balance already in itself. extremely fragile. Image | US NAVY In Xataka | From printing drones to looking at lasers, 300 reports have revealed that Iran’s battle manual has one name: Ukraine In Xataka | While everyone was looking at the Middle East, North Korea has had time to do what Iran has not been able to: go nuclear.

The rarest and rarest feline on the planet has found the nail in the coffin that was missing: the war in Iran

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He asian cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus) is one of the rarest and most endangered subspecies of big cats on the planet. There are only 27 individuals left at large, all of them are identified one by one and all of them live in Iran, as explains Bagher Nezaminational director of Asiatic Cheetah Conservation Project. There is no other known population anywhere else on the planet. In serious danger of extinction, what was already a critical situation has become an emergency since the attacks by the United States and Israel in Iran began in February 2026: the war has paralyzed the only monitoring system that kept this subspecies under control. What is happening with the Asian cheetah. As account the environmental science and conservation news platform Mongabay, just nine days after forest guards filmed a female with five cubs in the province of North Khorasan, the armed conflict began. Since then, access to the reserves where these animals live has been drastically restricted. The risk is not so much that a bomb falls on a reserve, but rather the lack of vigilance. The field vehicles used by field scientists and park rangers to guard the small population of Asiatic cheetahs can be mistaken for military targets in their scattered habitat (especially in the desert), so many of Iran’s environmental NGOs have stopped their activity. The country also suffers an internet blackout. This means that monitoring, field studies and field use are no longer operational. The species. The Asian cheetah diverged from African populations between 32,000 and 67,000 years ago. It is not an African cheetah implanted in Asia, but rather it has its own evolutionary lineage: it is smaller and has lighter fur than the African one and is adapted to arid areas and mountainous terrain. In fact, its monitoring is more complex not only because there are few of them, but because it lives in inhospitable areas. In any case, both are true Ferraris: they can exceed speeds of 100 km/h in short races. The IUCN has it classified on the Critically Endangered conservation scale since 1996, the highest alert before extinction in the wild. From an ecological perspective, it serves as a specialized predator on medium-sized ungulates—mainly gazelles—in the desert ecosystems of central Iran. Their disappearance could not be compensated by introducing African cheetahs: the genetic, physiological and behavioral divergence between both groups is too great and hybridization proposals do not have scientific support as a viable short-term solution. Why is it important. Because it is not a rare subspecies of a known felid, but rather it has a genetically differentiated lineage and is native to Asia. It has more than 30,000 years of history independent of African populations and its disappearance is not compensated by introducing African cheetahs. Furthermore, it fulfills its function there: it is a specialized predator on medium-sized ungulates in the arid ecosystems of central Iran, thus maintaining the balance of gazelle populations. In short: it has its place in the food chain of the desert ecosystem in the interior of the country. The situation of the Asian cheetah is also a direct indicator of the state of biodiversity conservation at war, as pointed out this article in People and Nature: its consequences are suffered decades after the conflict and sometimes, they are simply irreversible. Iran is home to exceptional biological diversity: Persian leopard, brown bear (Ursus arctos), Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), gray wolf (Canis lupus), among others. The collapse of the cheetah conservation system irremediably affects the rest. Context. Since 1959, the Asiatic cheetah has had legal protection in Iran. In the following decades its population was stabilized, but the Revolution of 1979 and the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s they were wasted years: Lax law enforcement wreaked havoc in the form of zero patrolling, destruction and fragmentation of their habitat, uncontrolled hunting, and decline in prey. In January 2022, Hassan Akbari, deputy minister of natural environment and biodiversity at Iran’s Department of Environment, declared that the Asiatic cheetah population had plummeted to just 12, down from an estimated 100 in 2010. In August 2025, the Tehran Times reported that only 20 copies remained. Monitoring them is very complicated per sebut there are also circumstances that work against it. For example, the controversial use of camera traps: in 2018 several people from Persian Wildlife Heritage Foundation accused of using camera traps for espionage. One person died in prison and the rest were pardoned in 2024. This case paralyzed international collaboration for years. In addition, Western sanctions have also systematically prevented the arrival of financing, essential for adequate monitoring. Asiatic cheetah dies. The main cause of death for Asian cheetahs is not poaching or predators, but the road. More than 52% of documented deaths They are due to accidents on roads that cross or border key habitats and cheetahs cross them without fear and repeatedly following their prey, such as Abbasabad-Mashhad and Mehriz-Anar. There are a couple of especially notorious cases of females run over, pregnant or with their young, in recent years: Meyami and Helia. Since the beginning of the conflict, these roads now also transport military material and people for evacuation, which increases traffic. With 27 individuals registered, there is no longer room for errors or unsupervised times: genetic analysis published in Conservation Genetics details that genetic diversity is critically low and inbreeding poses an additional risk to the viability of the subspecies. What can be done. Wild Tomorrow analyzes this problem in detail, advising to ignore social media campaigns that call for “emergency evacuations” without rigor: moving big wild cats across militarized borders is medically risky and informal channels can prove to be a route for illegal trafficking. Furthermore, we have already seen that proposing clandestine communications can expose those who protect the cheetah to accusations of espionage. What does have a real effect is supporting the Iranian Cheetah Society, the organization with the greatest field knowledge of this population. Likewise, at the international level there are organizations with real capacity … Read more

While everyone was looking at the Middle East, North Korea has had time to do what Iran has not been able to: go nuclear.

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It happened a few years ago, when in the midst of increasing tensions with North Korea, the Japanese government came to send alerts to millions of mobile phones through the J-Alert system when it detected the overflight of a missile, causing unusual scenes in which trains stopped and citizens took refuge in stations without knowing exactly what was happening. That reaction, almost automatic and difficult to imagine in peacetime, left a clear image of the extent to which certain global balances can be strained without warning. The regime that did not fall. I told a few days ago in an extensive special report the wall street journal the story of the surprising source of North Korea’s enduring power, a nation that has survived the demise of the Soviet Union and the transformation of China because it ceased to be just a communist state and became something more resilient: a closed ideological structurehereditary and almost religious. There it is impossible not to start with the Kim dynasty that managed to consolidate a system in which power is not only exercised, but also believed, internalized and transmitted as a faith. That model, built from Kim Il Sung and perfected by his successors, has made it possible to maintain extraordinary internal cohesion even in conditions of extreme isolation. While other regimes eroded as they opened up to the world or collapsed under external pressure, Pyongyang consolidated a base of control much deeperdifficult to dismantle from the outside. From ideology to state religion. I remembered the Journal that the core of that system is not only political, but also symbolic and emotional, with elements that clearly recall an organized religion. The Juche ideology It progressively replaced classical Marxism, incorporating rituals, symbols and an almost messianic narrative around the leader. The omnipresence of Kim Il Sung, his conversion in “eternal president” and dynastic continuity have generated a structure of loyalty that goes beyond political obedience. This model, influenced indirectly through Christianity that once dominated Pyongyang, allowed the construction of a system where loyalty to the leader is perceived as an absolute truth, something that largely explains its stability and capacity for resistance. The silent military leap. On that internal basis, North Korea has developed a pretty clear strategy: to arm oneself militarily until one becomes practically untouchablealthough no one knows exactly how much of it is true. Today it is recognized that it has intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reach US territory and has reinforced its arsenal with increasingly sophisticated systems. Not only that. The recent tests, just a few days ago from their new destroyer, with high-precision cruise and anti-ship missiles, they clearly show that it is no longer just a matter of accumulating weapons, but of integrating them into a modern military architecture, with rapid response capacity and systems resistant to interference. In fact, accelerated construction of new warships It aims at a transition from isolated platforms towards a structured naval force, which expands its projection capacity and complicates any containment scenario. Nuclear expansion in full noise. I told it this week Guardian through internal analyzes held by the UN nuclear watchdog. While much of the international attention was focused on the conflicts in the Middle EastNorth Korea has been taking advantage of this context to advance its nuclear program without restraint. As? Activity at key facilities such as Yongbyon has intensifiedwith new reactors, reprocessing plants and possible undeclared facilities to enrich uranium. The agency’s estimates point to dozens of warheads already operational and a growing capacity to produce enough material to between ten and twenty weapons additional each year. In other words, this rhythm, sustained over time, indicates that the objective is not only basic deterrence, but rather reaching a volume that guarantees the survival of the regime in the face of any attempt at forced change. The power that Iran has not consolidated. The key difference here is that North Korea has achieved what other countries in similar situations have achieved (call it Iran) have not been able to: convert their nuclear program into a fully integrated tool in their survival strategy. While other powers under international pressure have seen limited or braked its development, Pyongyang has moved closer to a point of no returnone where its capacity is broad enough to deter any intervention. In this context, it is possible that the real change is no longer just quantitative, but strategic: because when it reaches a surplus of nuclear capacity, the risk will cease to be solely regional and will have global implications, opening the door, at the very least, to new proliferation dynamics. Image | DPRK In Xataka | The US has activated plan B before Iran knocks down its last radar: disarm South Korea against the North’s new nuclear “toy” In Xataka | If the question is what has North Korea achieved in the last four years, the answer is simple: an unimaginable arsenal

The war machine that the US destroyed, Iran has put it back on its feet

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During the Vietnam War, American pilots bombed for days a network of tunnels near Cu Chi convinced that they had completely rendered it useless. When the troops advanced on the ground, they discovered that not only was it still operational, but the combatants they had reappeared from hidden exits a few meters from their positions. The scene left a brutal lesson: destroying from the air does not always mean eliminating what is below. A start of war that changes everything. The first hours of the conflict in Iran set the tone of everything that would come later: an intensity of fire rarely seen, with hundreds of missiles and almost a thousand drones launched in just two days, forcing the defensive systems to operate at the limit from the first moment. That volume not only showed the scale of the Iranian arsenal, but also the type of war that was being waged, one in which saturation was almost as important as precision. From that starting point, the expectation was clear for all the actors: if that rhythm was sustained, the key was not going to be who hit the hardest, because that actor had a name from the beginning, but who last longer. The illusion of total destruction. Because the United States and Israel responded in the first 48 hours of war with a massive campaign of bombings that sought to disable the Iranian military infrastructure, attacking thousands of targets and sealing access to underground bases to leave the launchers trapped. For weeks, the official message It was forceful.: The missile program had been devastated and the country’s response capacity was practically nullified. However, even at that time doubts arose from within the US apparatus itself, which warned that a significant part of these systems had not been destroyed, but simply blocked or temporarily inaccessible. Iranian efforts underway at a missile base in Tabriz on April 10 The mountains as a shield and strategy. It we count at the time. The real differentiating element was not in the missiles, but in where they were stored. Iran has spent decades building a network of underground facilities in mountainous environments, many of them excavated in granitic rock capable of resisting extremely powerful attacks. These “missile cities” not only store weapons, but also integrate complete logistics systemswith tunnels, launch points and escape routes designed to minimize exposure. It is an architecture designed for survive the first blowassume damage and keep the operational core intact, in a logic that prioritizes resilience over invulnerability. A loader over debris blocking an entrance to a missile base near Khomeyn, April 10 Dig, reactivate and launch again. Satellite images now have confirmed that, as soon as a ceasefire window opened, heavy machinery went into action to remove debris and reopen accesses blocked by bombings. As? The Telegraph said Through satellite survey that dozens of excavators, trucks and engineering equipment were deployed at key points to clear sealed entrances and regain access to buried launchers. Again, what is relevant here is not just that it is being done, but the speed: in a matter of days (and even in just 48 hours in some cases) those facilities have become operational again, suggesting that much of the military capacity was not destroyed, but simply paused. Designed to resist. All of this, furthermore, fits with a very specific doctrine: assume that the enemy will have air superiority and design the system to survive it. Unlike a conventional war, where losing control of the air usually implies the progressive destruction of infrastructure, here the logic is different and focuses on protect assets critical underground, absorb the first attack and recover capacity combat as soon as possible. This approach turns conflict into a race of attrition, where each cycle of attack and reconstruction erodes both the attacker and the defender. The real problem. If you like, the direct consequence of this dynamic is that the apparent initial success of Washington (and Israel) has lost weight in the face of the recovery capacity Iranian. Because, although the attacks have been massive and technically effective, the speed with which Tehran is restoring its bases raises an uncomfortable scene for their adversaries: every pause, negotiation or ceasefire in the fighting becomes an opportunity to rearm again or, literally, dust off the bunkers In that context, the question stops being whether an infrastructure can be destroyed and becomes how many times it can function again before the other side is left behind. without resources or without political margin to continue. Image | Airbus In Xataka | If the question is where is the US nuclear aircraft carrier, the answer is uncomfortable: hidden so that it does not sink In Xataka | We sensed that Iran bombed the US military bases with help: some coordinates have revealed its name, and it is Made in China

We sensed that Iran bombed US military bases with help. Some coordinates have revealed its name, and it is Made in China

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During the Gulf War, a group of Iraqi soldiers were located in the middle of the desert not by ground patrols, but by images taken from satellites that detected recent vehicle tracks in the sand. That episode marked one of the first moments in which looking from space began to be so decisive how to shoot from the ground. A satellite as an invisible weapon. A series of leaked documents held by the Financial Times have revealed that Iran not only had missiles and drones to attack US bases, but also a much quieter and decisive tool: an observation satellite capable of provide precise coordinates before and after each blow. The system, known like TEE-01Bwas acquired by the Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in late 2024, after its launch from China, and allowed Iranian commanders to monitor key installations throughout the region, identify targets with a level of detail unprecedented for the country and evaluate the impact of their attacks in almost real time. In other words, what seemed like a direct fire war actually hid a previous layer of orbital intelligence which multiplied the effectiveness of each operation. A secret agreement. The middle counted in its exclusive that behind this capacity is a little visible but strategic agreement with Chinese actors, one that not only facilitated access to the satellite already in orbit, but also to the infrastructure necessary to operate it from any point in the world. This model, based on the “in orbit” transfer and in networks of globally distributed ground stations (a little-known export model by which spacecraft launched in China are transferred to customers abroad once they reach orbit), allowed Iran to overcome one of its main weaknesses: the vulnerability of its own facilities to attack. By outsourcing control and data flow, Tehran turned a commercial asset on a military tool difficult to neutralize. Satellite image of the Prince Sultan Air Base From limited precision to a qualitative leap. The technical impact of this jump is key to understanding its importance. Compared to its previous systems, incapable of clearly identifying complex targets, the new satellite offered high resolution images (the TEE-01B is capable of capturing images with a resolution of approximately half a meter) that allowed aircraft, vehicles and changes in military infrastructure to be distinguished. This transformed Iranian attack planning from general estimates to data-driven decisions, and consolidated a combination of human intelligence, satellite imagery, and external support that significantly elevated Iran’s operational capabilities. Attack on the bases. Among the records they obtained showed that the satellite captured images from Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on March 13, 14 and 15. On March 14, Donald Trump confirmed that American planes at the base had been hit. Five US Air Force refueling aircraft were damaged. The satellite also carried out surveillance of the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan and from locations near the naval base of the Fifth Fleet of the United States in Manama, Bahrain, and the airport in Erbil, Iraq, around the date of the attacks claimed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard against facilities in those areas. Launch of TEE-01B And more bases. Other areas monitored by the satellite included Camp Buehring and Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, the US military base Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti and Duqm International Airport in Oman. Also included in the Persian Gulf civil infrastructure monitored was the Khor Fakkan container port and the Qidfa desalination and power plant in the United Arab Emirates, as well as the Alba plant in Bahrain, one of the largest aluminum smelters in the world. Decades of relationship that explain the present. In parallel to FT reportthe New York Times published this morning one piece where he explains that these types of advances are not an isolated event, but rather the result of a relationship built over decades between Iran and China in the military and technological field. Since the 1980s, when Beijing supplied weapons directly, to recent decades, when it has opted for more discreet support based on components, dual technology and knowledge transfer, cooperation has evolved. to adapt to sanctions and regional balances. In that process, China has gone from selling weapons to facilitating capabilities that allow Iran to develop and improve its own without openly exposing itself. Strategic ambiguity as a tool. One of the most relevant elements of this relationship has been its ambiguous characterwhere the border between civil and military is constantly blurred. Commercial companies, seemingly neutral technologies and systems designed for civilian uses end up being integrated into military structures, offering China a way to influence without assuming directly the political cost of explicit support. This approach allows for simultaneous relations with Iran’s regional rivals while strengthening its strategic capabilities. A new type of war. In short, the end result is a scenario in which the battlefield no longer begins on land, but miles away from herin orbit, where information has become the most decisive factor and actor. The combination of satellites, global networks and discreet agreements It redefines that way of waging war, allowing actors with fewer resources to compensate for their limitations through access to advanced technology. In that context, the history of the TEE-01B It is not just that of a satellite, but how a network of cooperation and decades of technological evolution can completely transform the way an attack is planned and executed. Image | US Navy, Planet Labs In Xataka | The US already has the first response to its blockade of Hormuz: a boomerang of unpredictable consequences called China In Xataka | The US has closed all exits from the Strait of Hormuz. And now Iran can put into practice what it has been preparing for 25 years

While the world looked at Iran, China has seized an island in the Pacific without a single shot. And now he is militarizing it

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For some time now, some countries have been capable of creating land where before there was only open sea, modifying entire maps in a matter of years. These transformations, visible even from space, have come to alter trade routes, ecosystems and regional balances without the need for major confrontations. Because sometimes, the most decisive changes do not begin with a conflict, but with a work that no one stops. A conquest without shooting. While international attention was completely absorbed by the crisis in the middle eastChina has executed a quiet but deeply strategic move in the South China Sea. They counted in Forbes which, without the need for direct military force, has transformed a tiny island, a reef barely visible on the map, into a new key piece of your network of maritime control, taking advantage of the global distraction and the lack of immediate reaction. The late response from countries like Vietnam and the initial silence of the international community have allowed this movement to advance practically without opposition, consolidating a fait accompli before the debate even began. From sandbank to strategic base in months. Through satellite images, the Telegraph explained that the pace of construction at Antelope Reef It revealed extraordinary industrial and logistical capacity, with dozens of dredgers working in coordination to create square kilometers of land in a matter of months. What was once a simple sandbank has now become an expanding platform with visible infrastructurefortified perimeters and enough space to house much more complex facilities. This speed not only demonstrates the ambition of the project, but also Beijing’s ability to alter the physical terrain of the conflict before other actors can react. The image on the left corresponds to December 19, 2025. The image on the right corresponds to February 17, 2026 Legality as a tool, not as a limit. China has accompanied this expansion with a parallel strategy based on reinterpreting international law and presenting construction as an internal issue, diluting the legal conflict in a narrative of civil development. The problem? That, under the framework of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, these constructions they do not grant new rights sovereigns, which places the project in a clearly controversial and diffuse area. Still, the combination of fait accompli and legal argument allows Beijing to move forward no need for confrontation directly, moving the conflict to the diplomatic and narrative terrain. Militarization without concealment. Unlike previous phases, where China denied the militarization of its artificial islands, the current development clearly points for military use from the beginning. The dimensions of the land allow the construction of landing strips capable to operate advanced fightersas well as the future installation of radars, missile systems and surveillance networks. In other words, more than a simple base, the enclave emerges as a node within a larger architecture that connects ports, maritime militias and intelligence capabilities, reinforcing control over one of the most strategic routes on the planet. A new balance under the sea. If you will, too, the result of this effort is a quiet but profound shift in the regional balance, one where each new island expands China’s capabilities. to monitor, deter and project power without resorting to open confrontations. From that perspective, these types of movements, cumulative and discrete, allow consolidate strategic advantages that only become evident when it’s too late to reverse them. Thus, while the world’s focus shifted towards other conflictsChina has continued to redefine the map of the Pacific in its favor, demonstrating that in modern geopolitics it is not always whoever shoots first who wins, but whoever builds without being interrupted. Image | Planet L. In Xataka | Satellite images have revealed something disturbing in China: where there were once villages, there are now unmistakable structures In Xataka | The most buoyant market right now is selling streaming and satellite images of US movements to Iran.

is that Iran has “lost the keys” and without them the balance is broken

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There are only a few maritime passages in the world capable of altering the global economy in a matter of days, and some of them are so narrow that they could fit inside a large city. Through those corridors they circulate every day hundreds of ships loaded with energy, raw materials and essential goods. Their fragility is such that a large military deployment is not necessary to alter them: it is enough that something stopped fitting so that the entire system suffers. Closed… but not by what it seems. For weeks, the international focus has been on whether the Strait of Hormuz was open or closedbut the reality could be much more disturbing: that Iran is not fully in control of the shutdown it caused. After laying naval mines in response to attacks by the United States and Israel, the passage was practically paralyzed, raising energy prices and giving Tehran a powerful tool of pressure. However, this same strategy has generated an unexpected situation in which, according to Iran has slippedthe blockade no longer depends only on a political or military decision, but on a technical problem that is much more difficult to reverse. The concept of “losing the keys”. Because the core of the problem is how the mines could have been deployed: hastily, disorganized and, in the worst case, without a record. accurate of your location. Some were even able to move through ocean currents, further complicating their location. So, this weekend counted the new york times that what in theory should have been a controlled closure of the strait has become something more chaotic and disturbing, where not even those who placed the mines know with certainty where they all are. The metaphor of “losing the keys” is not rhetorical, but rather a quite literal description of the situation that has been heard. in embassies in Tehran: Iran has blocked the door, but can no longer open it easily. An effective weapon against. He use of minescombined with the threat of drones and missiles, managed to reduce maritime traffic to a minimum and generate strong global pressure, but that strategic advantage began to turn against Tehran. To mitigate the impact, Iran has maintained limited corridors and spread supposedly safe routes, even allowing some ships to pass under certain conditions. Even so, the traffic flow has not been normalizedbecause the risk remains too high and uncertainty about the location of the mines persists. The technical limit of a modern war. Basically, something that we have been counting these weeks: the elimination of naval mines is one of the more complex operations in the military field, and not even powers like the United States have sufficient capabilities to quickly clear a road as critical as Hormuz. In this context, the Iranian situation is even more delicate: its own technical limitations, aggravated by the attacks to its naval infrastructuremake a quick reopening unfeasible. This introduces an unexpected factor into the negotiations, since the “technical limitations” mentioned by its leaders are not a diplomatic excuse, but a real obstacle. Unstable balance with risk of escalation. The result is a scenario extremely fragilewhere a partially blocked strait depends as much on political decisions as an out-of-control minefield. Neither Iran nor the United States have a clear image of how many mines there are or where they are, while Tehran retains the ability to plant more with small boats that are difficult to track. Of course there is also an option that no one rules out. Now that it is the United States that has decided to block Hormuz. Iran could be playing its cards, because the normal thing is that all the mines are mappedand that Tehran simply does not trust Washington and refuses to take any steps before receiving concrete concessions. And in all these scenarios, Hormuz becomes an area where any error, accident or incorrect calculation can escalate quickly, because the problem is no longer just who controls the passage, but that no one has full control of what happens underwater. Image | Jenikir In Xataka | The most buoyant market right now is selling streaming and satellite images of US movements to Iran. In Xataka | Commercial aviation is based on very old aircraft. The Iran war is going to make it even worse

The most buoyant market right now is selling streaming and satellite images of US movements to Iran.

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In recent years, the number of active satellites in orbit has exceeded 7,500many of them dedicated to observing the Earth with a precision that allows us to distinguish objects just a few meters away. At the same time, millions of position signals from aircraft and ships were broadcast every minute openly throughout the planet. Never before has there been so much accessible information about what is happening, in almost real time, anywhere on the planet. A new war market in real time. The war in Iran has opened a unexpected showcaseor where each military movement becomes almost immediate content, packaged and disseminated as if it were a live event by an international artist. Chinese technology companies have detected that opportunity and have begun to offer detailed analysis on US bases, deployments and operations using open data combined with artificial intelligence. What previously required state intelligence resources is now presented as an accessible, visual and viral product, capable of circulating both on social networks and specialized platforms. The result is a kind military streaming where the movements of a superpower are transformed into information merchandise. Fusion between open data and AI. I counted this week the Washington Post that the core of this phenomenon is in the combination of public sources (such as satellite images, flight trackers or maritime data) with algorithms capable of processing them on a large scale. Here are companies that we had already talked about before like MizarVisionwhich use these resources to reconstruct entire deployments, identify aircraft types or follow naval group routes in near real time. Although much of the data already existed, the difference now is in speedautomation and the ability to cross-reference information on a massive scale, turning simple scattered signals into coherent military narratives. This drastically reduces the distance between the public and the strategic. Intelligence as a commercial product. The real turn is not only in technology, but in the business model that surrounds her. These companies do not operate like traditional intelligence agencies, but rather as suppliers that sell visibility on military operations, promoting their capabilities with real examples of active conflicts. Signatures as Jing’an Technology They have even gone so far as to publish alleged records of communications or mission reconstructionsreinforcing the idea that they can “see everything.” Thus, war ceases to be just a geopolitical scenario and becomes a source of income based on the exploitation of raw information transformed into digestible intelligence. Money flows in only one direction. Behind this apparent democratization of intelligence there is a very specific economic flow that mainly benefits the Chinese technological ecosystem. They remembered in the post that many of these companies have grown under the umbrella of the integration strategy Beijing civil-militaryreceiving funding and indirect support to develop dual capabilities. Every report sold, every analysis disseminated and every platform used rstrengthens that industrial fabricfeeding a circuit where data (often generated by Western infrastructures) ends up generating value within China. In practice, monitoring the movements of the United States not only exposes its operations, but also helps finance the technological development of a strategic competitor. A diffuse but growing threat. Although US authorities doubt that these companies can penetrate truly sensitive systems, the problem lies not so much in absolute precision as in the trend that they can represent. The ability to map movements, detect patterns and anticipate deployments is already a advantage in scenarios crisis, even if the data is not perfect. Furthermore, this model offers China an additional advantage: it can benefit from the information without officially getting involvedusing private companies as intermediaries. The consequence is something of a new type of battlefield, one where open, processed and commercialized information becomes a strategic weapon in itself. Image | MizarVision In Xataka | The US is redrawing the map of its bases in Europe. And none of the countries that have said “no to war” appear In Xataka | Of all the paradoxes of the war in the Middle East, few imagined this ending: with a “half-way” deal between the US and Iran

Behind oil, the US had a much more mundane reason for attacking Iran: pistachios

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Since the United States and Israel struck Iran on February 28, unleashing a war that has lasted more than a month and now hangs on a fragile truce, the world has been attentive to the ups and downs in the price of oil and the traffic of goods such as urea either helium. Logical Your flow has been greatly damaged by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and sectors as important as transportation, agriculture or the technology industry depend on them. There is, however, another commodity that has grabbed much fewer headlines and is equally affected (perhaps even more so) by the war: the pistachio. green gold. No market remains immune to the passage of time, but few have changed as much over the last half century as that of pistachio. If we go back to the 60s, even the 70s, talking about the world pistachio market was talk basically about Iran. The country dominated global trade, placing itself far above from rivals such as the United States or Türkiye. Today the photo is different. Has it changed that much? It comes with looking at the graph above. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), during the 2025/2026 season the US will strengthen its global leadership with 712,700 tons metric, 65% of total production. Iran takes 18% of the pie, followed not so far by Türkiye (11%). These are not current figures, but the new reality. Although the pistachio industry is a business marked by cyclical patterns of its production, its global photo has hardly changed in the last decade: the USA dominates, followed by Iran and Türkiye, which have sometimes reached exchange the second and third position. At the distancefollowed by Syria and the EU, Spain included. It’s the market… and politics. That Iran has lost its global leadership in favor of the United States is hardly a coincidence. Nor is it explained only by reasons of production or pure economics. As I remembered recently analyst Justin Fox in Bloomberg, in reality the US authorities did not begin to bet on pistachio production in California until the middle of the last century. The plantations as such did not arrive until the late 1960s and the first commercial harvest with a certain scope was harvested in 1976. However, the future of the world pistachio market has been influenced by both the geostrategic decisions made in Washington and the work of pistachio farmers in the San Joaquin Valleyin the state of California. Reviewing history. At the end of the 70s, after the overthrow of the Shah and the takeover of the embassy American in Iran, Washington imposed a trade embargo on the country that cleared the way for Californian farmers eager to dominate the national market. The trade penalty was lifted in 1981, but just a few years later the US gave another boost to its industry by applying a tariff of 241% to raw Iranian pistachios in shell. Since then the scenario has become more complicated, but its result is evident: California has become a heavyweight in global production. And with it the US, which surpassed Iran for the first time in the 2004 campaign and has been more than doubling its annual harvest since 2020. “What’s behind that takeoff?” That’s the question Justin Fox asks himself in your analysisin which he slips several ideas: this boom is partly explained by changes in water policies that led American farmers to bet on almonds and pistachios, the advantages of their production during droughts and the boost of Stewart and Lynda Resnickowners of Wonderful Company, a firm that brings together between 15 and 20% of California pistachios and found the key to popularizing the product. And for proof, a button: since the middle of the last decade, per capita consumption in the country has tripled. Beyond the geostrategic value of Iran, its weight in the oil industry or the turbulent relationship with Israel, there are those who have seen the pistachio market as one of the factors that have conditioned the relationship between Washington and Tehran over recent decades. “Hostile relations with Iran seem to have benefited California producers,” says Fox, who recalls that there is even a documentary, ‘Pistachio Wars’which “even hints that pistachio interests are partly responsible for that hostility.” Is it that important? It is estimated that the ‘vede gold’ was the 17th export in terms of value of the US agricultural industry during fiscal year 2025. And it is not unreasonable to think that this position will improve. Both for the growing popularity of pistachio, driven in recent years by the fever of ‘Dubai chocolate’as well as the commitment of US farmers. The New York Times esteem that pistachio orchards have exploded in surface area in the last quarter of a century: from around 100,000 acres in California in 2001, they have grown to more than 600,000. And the war came. At this point the question is obvious… How is the war in Iran affecting the world pistachio market? There are those who believe that the American industry will be one of the best stops. “This war will limit what Iran can make and export to customers in Europe and China,” explains to TNYT Adam Orandi, responsible for a pistachio tree extension in San Joaquín. It is not only about a possible loss of strength of the Islamic Republic in the market, but about the behavior of prices. Orandi is not the only one who has pointed in that direction. In recent weeks other voices have speculated about the benefits that California companies could obtain, especially considering the good estimates of harvest that they handle in the US. Click on the image to go to the tweet. Has the war affected that much? Yes. A few weeks ago Times of India slid and to some of the threats that the war represents for the Iranian pistachio trade: logistical paralysis (conditioned by disturbances in maritime routes), the increase in premiums charged by insurance companies, power … Read more

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