Iran

China turned off the oil tap when the conflict with Iran broke out. Now he reopens it to rescue a thirsty Asia

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When the Strait of Hormuz was practically sealed after the outbreak of the well-known Third Gulf War, the world held its breath. In the midst of widespread panic over the strangulation of one of the planet’s most vital energy arteries, the first major tectonic movement came from Beijing. The Asian giant opted for the crudest pragmatism: it ordered its large refineries to immediately and opaquely stop gasoline and diesel exports to shield its own tanks. China isolated itself to survive. However, in just a few weeks, the board has taken an unexpected turn. With an Asia that looks into the abyss of the shortage, Beijing has decided to reopen the valve, going from being a protectionist actor to establishing itself as the great energy lifeline of the region. Asia’s savior: China. The shockwaves of war have left the Indo-Pacific region shivering. Asia has become “ground zero” of the crisis. In Australia, the panic has emptied the gas stationsforcing the government to cut emergency taxes; India has had to sacrifice tax revenue to freeze prices due to shortages; Japan has refused to share its strategic reserves with its neighbors; and Vietnam airlines They have had to cancel en masse their flights due to the lack and extra cost of aviation fuel. In the midst of this desperation, China has made its move. As anticipated BloombergBeijing has given the green light to its state refineries to export 500,000 tons of fuels (gasoline, diesel and kerosene) over the next month. According to sources cited by oil pricecompanies such as Sinopec and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) already have shipments ready on ships that will be destined, as a rescue, to severely punished neighboring nations such as Vietnam and Laos. The energetic rice bowl. That China can afford to export fuel while the rest of the continent applies rationing measures is not a miracle, it is the result of a silent strategy. China took advantage of previous years to buy heavily sanctioned and cheap crude oil (Russian, Venezuelan and Iranian), managing to accumulate colossal reserves of almost 1.4 billion barrels. According to researcher Henry Tugendhatthis gives Beijing a cushion of about 104 days of domestic demand, in addition to having a “floating warehouse” of Iranian oil tankers anchored off its coasts waiting to be unloaded. Returning to “Game of Thrones.” But Beijing’s move goes far beyond helping its neighbors; It is a direct geopolitical challenge. As detailed South China Morning Post (SCMP)China has for the first time activated its so-called “Blockade Rules” of 2021. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has issued an official order prohibiting domestic companies from complying with the sanctions recently imposed by the United States. Washington had sanctioned five refineries Chinese independent companies (known as “teapots”), including Hengli Petrochemical, accusing them of financing the Iranian military by purchasing its oil. By ordering the contempt of these sanctions because they are considered a “improper extraterritorial application”Beijing demonstrates that it not only has physical control of the crude oil, but that it is willing to engage in a legal and financial confrontation with the United States to protect its supply lines. Tightrope diplomacy. The short-term scenario will be played in the offices. As explained The New York TimesChina is playing both sides in this conflict. On the one hand, he acts as a peaceful mediator, pushing Iran to negotiate to de-escalate tension, having been key in the fragile temporary ceasefires. However, on the other hand, US intelligence agencies suspect that Chinese companies continue to export dual-use material and even military technology to Tehran. All of this is meticulously calculated ahead of the imminent May 14 summit in Beijing between Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump. According to the analysts consulted through the New York environmentthe fact that the US is bogged down in the Middle East and rapidly spending its military resources, gives China a position of tremendous strength to negotiate over tariffs, trade and the US naval blockade. lenergy as the definitive weapon of the 21st century. The Strait of Hormuz crisis has functioned as a stress test for energy globalization. The sanctions drawn up in Washington attempt to financially suffocate the actors in the conflict, but the tyranny of physical infrastructure imposes its own rules. China has shown that the energy wars in this decade are not only decided with naval deployments, but with warehouses full of strategic reserves, independence in refining capacity and overwhelming dominance in the manufacturing of renewable energy. By reopening its export tap, Beijing sends a clear message to the world: while the West hyperventilates over the price of a barrel, China is the one who has the ability to decide who is left in the dark in Asia. Image | Photo by Bundo Kim on Unsplash Xataka | China is one of the largest refining powers on the planet. And he has decided something: to keep all the gasoline he produces

After gasoline, the war in Iran is about to skyrocket the price of something just as painful: your Zara clothes

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During the oil crisis In 1973, several industries that seemed completely unrelated to energy, such as plastics or fertilizers, suddenly discovered that Your costs could skyrocket in a matter of weeks for decisions made thousands of miles away, altering prices and supply chains in sectors where no one looked at the barrel of crude oil. From oil to the closet. I counted the weekend Reuters that the rise in energy prices after the war in Iran is beginning to filter down a lot beyond gasoline or transportation, reaching a less obvious field: the clothes that reach the stores. The link is direct, because a good part of the textile industry depends on petroleum derivatives, and any tension in that market is quickly transmitted to the materials that support global garment production. The key piece. Polyester dominates the global textile industry with a massive presence in almost all types of clothing, from sportswear to everyday dresses. The problem is that its manufacture depends of compounds such as PTA and MEGwhose cost has skyrocketedabout 30% due to the rise in crude oil, the increase in from Asian suppliers and disruptions in the Middle East. This pressure turns the polyester into the entry point of the energy crisis in fashion, transferring the impact from the energy markets to the fabric of the industry itself. The chain that begins to break. Reuters remembered that the blow is being felt with special intensity in India and Bangladeshtwo pillars of global clothing production. Factories that were previously operating at full capacity have drastically reduced their activity, with looms stopped, production cut by less than half and difficulties in fulfilling international orders. Added to this is the labor shortage in some textile centers, caused by basic energy problems such as the lack of gas, which adds another layer of tension to a system already on the limit. Gain time without escape. Big names emerge here, where companies like Inditex or H&M They are not yet immediately transferring the impact to the consumer thanks to advance purchases and inventory planning, which has allowed them to mitigate and cushion the blow in the short term. Even so, suppliers already they are announcing increases of prices and the absorption margin has a very clear limit. Plus: The use of recycled polyester offers some relief, although its weight remains low within the overall total, limiting its ability to offset current pressure. Costs rise, demand trembles. Thus, the price increase starts to move to threads, dyes, transportation and essential components, generating a chain effect that can end up affecting the volume of orders. For their part, manufacturers warn that, if the situation continues, production will fall and consumers will reduce purchases due to higher prices. The phenomenon, known as demand destructionintroduces an added risk: a simultaneous drop in supply and consumption that affects the entire industry. It’s not just the Zara shirt, but also the shoes. Yes, because the impact of oil aims to spread as well to the footwear sectorwhere derived materials such as foams, adhesives or synthetic soles also depend on petrochemical products. In other words, this means that the pressure on costs will not be limited to t-shirts or pants, but will reach a wide range of products, complicating the price planning and market stability. The crisis where no one was looking. In short, what began as a rise in energy prices It is becoming a structural problem for the fashion industry. In essence, the dependence on oil for key materials turns any conflict into a direct variable. about the final price of the garments. And as pressure builds up in the supply chain, the impact is no longer invisible or minimal, but is slowly but inexorably approaching. consumer pocketsignaling a profound change in how geopolitics can end up being reflected in something as everyday as the shirt that until now you bought for 20 euros. Image | POT, Leitonmahillo In Xataka | If the war resumes again, the US runs a risk unprecedented in the history of war: that the only one with missiles will be Iran. In Xataka | If the question is why the US attacked an Iranian ship with a weapon unprecedented in 40 years, we already know the answer: a “gift from China”

The US is doing a lot of damage to Iran with the Hormuz counterblockade. So much so that he is already considering closing oil wells

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Oil has an unbreakable physical law: once it leaves the ground, it has to go somewhere. If ships can’t transport it and storage tanks fill up, the only option is to shut down the wells. Today, the war of attrition between the United States and Iran has ceased to be a mere diplomatic conflict and has become a geological and logistical time bomb. According to data from the analysis firm KplerIran has just 12 to 22 days left before its crude oil storage capacity is completely saturated. The US naval blockade has suffocated its exports by 70%, plummeting shipments from 1.85 million barrels per day to a meager 567,000. A lethal limit. As explained Al Jazeera, Stopping production at an oil well is not like turning off a light switch. When pumping is stopped, the pressure in the underground reservoirs drops sharply, allowing water or gas to seep into the production layers. The potential damage is immense: The Wall Street Journal warns that almost half of the Iranian oil fields are old and low pressure. An abrupt shutdown threatens to permanently destroy part of this aging infrastructure, making recovering that crude oil in the future technically and financially unfeasible. In Washington, the narrative is one of imminent victory. The US administration is confident that this collapse will force Tehran to surrender. According to statements collected by Foreign Policythe US Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessentand President Donald Trump himself predict that the drowning will cause an imminent internal shortage of gasoline, increasing social pressure on the regime until it is forced to give in. However, experts urge caution against Western triumphalism. A rigorous analysis of the Center on Global Energy Policy from Columbia University dismantles part of the myth of catastrophic damage dividing the problem into two fronts: Crude oil can breathe: Specialists detail that the historic oil fields of Khuzestan operate through a “gravity drainage” system. Paradoxically, a temporary stoppage could allow these specific reservoirs to recharge naturally. Natural gas, the true Achilles’ heel: The real risk, the institution explains, lies in the natural gas fields, such as the gigantic South Pars. If these become blocked as they cannot release the associated liquids, Iran will be forced to drastically ration energy for industry and homes in the coming months. Tehran does not plan to give up. According to NDTV, The Islamic Republic will maintain its “diplomacy of patience.” Furthermore, the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) already survived to severe production cuts in 2012 and 2019, and has a robust smuggling network that makes it very resistant to conventional economic pressure. Added to this is the time factor: according to the calculations of Kplerthe real financial blow will take between three and four months to be felt in Iranian coffers, since China – its main client – ​​operates with long delays in payments. The flight forward. To buy time, Iran is resorting to extreme measures. As revealed The Wall Street Journal, The country is reactivating dilapidated infrastructure, known in the sector as “junk storage”, in areas such as Ahvaz and Asaluyeh, and is even trying to export crude oil by train to China; a very slow and very expensive route that shows the level of stress in the system. and in the sea activation of the Nashaa 30-year-old supertanker rescued from scrapping to serve as an emergency floating warehouse. But the most fascinating and opaque strategy is unfolding thousands of miles from the Persian Gulf. As my colleague Miguel Jorge has developed for Xataka, There is a “secret gas station” in the middle of the ocean. This is an area off the coast of Malaysia, known as EOPL, which functions as a huge ghost car park. There, a shadow fleet of aging ships with their tracking systems (AIS) turned off conduct dangerous ship-to-ship crude transfers. With this maneuver they launder the origin of the oil, passing it off as Malaysian to sell it to independent Chinese refineries and evade the radar of US sanctions. The global earthquake. As Iran searches for oxygen, the collateral damage of this blockade is fracturing the global economy and geopolitics. Behind closed doors, the Iranian social collapse is advancing at a steady pace. A crude report of the Financial Times details that real inflation is already close to 50% and the national currency (the rial) sinks to historic lows. The price of basic products such as cheese and chicken has skyrocketed, and the government admits that more than 191,000 workers have applied for unemployment benefits since the start of the war. Globally, the Straits crisis has shattered the mirage of modern logistics. The collapse of Hormuz It’s not a temporary traffic jam.but a tectonic fault that has broken the “just in time” system and is threatening the hegemony of the petrodollar. Markets, panicking over a prolonged disruption, have pushed a barrel of Brent crude above $120, its highest level since 2022. But the most seismic geopolitical consequence of this war has erupted within the oil cartel: the United Arab Emirates (UAE). will leave OPEC+ May 1st. Fed up with production quotas that limited their income and feeling deeply abandoned by their Arab neighbors in the face of direct attacks from Iran, the Emiratis have decided to fly alone. This breakup leaves Saudi Arabia alone bearing the cost of stabilizing the market, greatly weakens OPEC and gives Donald Trump a diplomatic coup that he had been seeking for years. The final pulse. In the end, this conflict has become a drag race in which no one emerges unscathed. The big question that will decide the outcome of the war is who will go bankrupt first: the fragile and antiquated oil wells of Iran and its exhausted population, or the global consumers and the great Western powers, unable to withstand the skyrocketing fuel prices and the collapse of world shipping routes for much longer. And all this happens under inescapable pressure. While political leaders debate and move their chips thousands of kilometers away, the valves of Kharg Island … Read more

The war in Iran has destroyed another critical supply chain for consumer technology: PCBs

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While the war in Iran is leaving us with a global energy crisis unprecedented, it is also hitting the technology industry squarely in one of its most critical components: printed circuit boards (PCB). These boards are found in basically any device, and in the last month their price has skyrocketed by up to 40%, according to they count from Goldman Sachs. The reason: an attack on a critical plant for the manufacture of PCBs that puts the global supply of these boards in check. Stroke. ANDIn the first days of April, Iranian forces attacked the Jubail petrochemical complex in Saudi Arabia. SABIC (Saudi Basic Industries Corporation) operates in this complex, a company that produces approximately 70% of the world’s supply of high-purity polyphenylene ether (PPE) resin, an essential material for manufacturing the laminates with which PCBs are built. According to they count From Reuters, since the attack, SABIC has been unable to resume production. And that is a problem on a global scale. Raw material at stake. It is not just about the direct attack on Jubail. The conflict has also generated serious disruption in maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf, one of the most critical logistics routes connecting Middle Eastern chemical producers with Asian electronics manufacturers. Added to this is the pressure on copper, which represents around 60% of the total cost of raw materials in PCB manufacturing, according to they count from Victory Giant Technology, one of the largest Chinese suppliers in the sector with clients such as Nvidia. The company warned this month that the conflict could make key materials such as resin and copper even more expensive. According to Reuters, the price of sheet copper has risen up to 30% since the beginning of the year. Qproduction ties. From Daeduck Electronics, a major South Korean PCB manufacturer that supplies Samsung, SK Hynix and AMD, among others, confirmed Reuters that the company has started talks with its customers to pass on the price increases. The company pointed out that the waiting period for materials such as epoxy resin has gone from three weeks to fifteen. A market that was already stressed. PCB prices had already been rising for months due to the skyrocketing demand for AI servers. According to Reutersdemand has accelerated sharply since March, with manufacturers trying to secure supplies before the situation worsens. Goldman Sachs points out that large cloud service providers are willing to take on further increases because they expect demand to outstrip supply for years. On the other hand, research firm Prismark projects that the global PCB sector will grow 12.5% ​​in 2026, reaching $95.8 billion. And PCBs aren’t the only thing affected. The technology supply chain is taking hits from all sides. According to inform The Elec Korea, large Japanese manufacturers of photoresist (a key chemical in chip production) have begun to notify clients such as Samsung and SK Hynix of problems in the supply of gasoline, a raw material that these suppliers obtain more than 40% from the Middle East. Besides, the price of helium (essential gas in the manufacture of semiconductors) has almost doubled after the Iranian attacks on Ras Laffan, in Qatar, which provides about a third of the global supply, according to Fitch Ratings. What does this mean for the consumer. The impact will end up reaching the final price of the products. PCBs are in absolutely everything that has electronics inside, and a 40% increase in their cost is difficult to absorb without the increase being passed on to the user. Manufacturers are already negotiating price transfers with their customers, and these, in turn, will transfer them downstream. The worst thing is the timing, since we are also in the middle of a RAM and storage crisis and the pressure around the markets only increases. Cover image | Random Thinking In Xataka | There is a company that has grown 3,000% in the stock market, even beating the performance of Nvidia: Sandisk

A superyacht has just crossed Hormuz before the astonished gaze of the US and Iran. Its flag has confirmed that mines are not for everyone

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In 2019, during one of the highest recent tensions in the Persian Gulf, several marine insurers they raised their premiums so much that some shipowners chose to keep their ships anchored for weeks rather than crossing certain routes considered too dangerous. In parallel, other ships continued sailing with relative normality thanks to apparently minor details such as their registration or the documentation they carried, making it clear that, even in times of greatest uncertainty, not all ships play with the same rules. A strategic step converted into a global funnel. we have been counting. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil normally circulates, has become one of the most tense points of the planet after the outbreak of the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, with traffic plummeting from more than 130 ships daily to just a few dozen and hundreds of ships trapped waiting for safe conditions. The situation has skyrocketed energy prices and generated a domino effect in global trade, while Tehran demands permits to cross and Washington threatens to intercept certain movements. In this scenario, crossing this bottleneck has become an operation fraught with military, legal and economic risks. Or maybe not so much. A superyacht that defies the blockade. Because in the midst of that collapse, he Northa luxury superyacht valued at just over $500 million and linked to the Russian oligarch Alexei Mordashovachieved what very few have achieved in recent weeks: crossing Hormuz from Dubai to Oman without incident. With more than 140 meters in length, several decks, a swimming pool, heliports and even a convertible hangar, its journey not only contrasts with the general paralysis of maritime traffic, but also makes it a striking anomaly in an environment where even large oil companies prefer not to take risks. Your journey, monitored in real timefollowed routes that other ships have used with some type of coordination in the area, although without official confirmation about permits. Alexey Mordashov The invisible key. Possibly the most revealing element of this episode is not in the luxury of the ship, but in how did he get through without being detained or attacked, in a context where any ship can become a target. Everything indicates that he achieved it with a combination of factors: not heading to Iranian ports (which would place it outside the direct focus of the US blockade), sailing through corridors tolerated by Iran and, above all, operating under a diffuse legal structure where the formal property does not entirely coincide with the real one. In other words, in an environment where each movement is interpreted as a political signal, the flag, the chosen route and the legal ambiguity act as a kind of tacit safe conduct that allows one to move between red lines without completely crossing them. Geopolitics, sanctions and alliances in the background. Of course, the journey of North cannot be understood without the political background that surrounds it, marked by the close relationship between Russia and Iran and by the fact that Vladimir Putin maintains a strategic support to Tehran in full escalation with the West. Mordashov, one of the men richest in Russia and sanctioned for the United States and the European Union since the invasion of Ukraine, you have already seen other seized assetswhich has led many oligarchs to move their assets to safer jurisdictions. In this context, the passage of the yacht through Hormuz also becomes a sign of the extent to which certain networks of power and alliances can influence what, in theory, should be a total blockade. A symptom of how conflicts work. Beyond the anecdote, the episode reflects a dynamic increasingly common in contemporary conflicts: while great powers impose restrictions and threats, they always there are gray spaces where specific actors manage to move thanks to combinations of diplomacy, crossed interests and legal loopholes. The fact that a luxury superyacht can cross one of the most dangerous points on the planet in the middle of a crisis, while hundreds of ships remain immobilized and frightened by mines and drones in the surrounding area, illustrates how power is not only measured in military capacity, but also in ability to browse (literally and figuratively) between rules that are not always applied uniformly. Image | POT, Wolfgang Fricke In Xataka | The US resurrected the “right of prey” to capture a ship from China: the problem is that China has taken note In Xataka | Ukraine taught how to use drones. Iran has gone one step further: turning them into a crusher for US radars and bases

Unintentionally, the war in Iran has dynamited the great oil cartel

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The energy earthquake that caused the Third Gulf War has just claimed an unexpected victim: the unity of the oil cartel. As of May 1, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will no longer be part of OPEC and its OPEC+ alliance. As reported by the state news agency WAMin Abu Dhabi consider that it is time to prioritize their “national interest.” After spending almost six decades making “great sacrifices”, the Emirati Government considers that stage over and prefers to fly alone, guided by its own “strategic and economic vision” far from the limits of the group. The context could not be more volatile. The Strait of Hormuz—through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil normally transits— is submerged in operational chaos due to Iranian threats and attacks, in addition to the US blockade of Iranian ports. As explained Reutersin this scenario of suffocation, the Emirates has decided that its energy future needs to maneuver without the ties of Vienna. The beginning of the end of quotas. The impact of this exit is tectonic for the oil market. As analyst Saul Kavonic warns in the BBCthis breakup could be “the beginning of the end for OPEC.” With the departure of Emirates, the cartel loses approximately 15% of its total capacity and one of its most rigorous members, leaving the organization weakened and with only 11 core members. The key to this divorce lies in production, since the Emirati authorities had been complaining for some time that the cartel’s quotas unfairly limited their exports. As detailed by Robin Mills, analyst consulted by the cnnOPEC kept the Emirates restricted to a production of 3.2 million barrels per day, when the country has invested aggressively to reach a real capacity close to 5 million. The Emirates “have been eager to pump more oil for some time,” notes David Oxley of Capital Economics in the same medium. The economic consequences are already being felt. The World Bank, which classifies this crisis as the largest supply loss on record, predicts a 25% increase in energy prices. Brent crude oil has experienced extreme volatility, fluctuating between $104 and $119 per barrel since the start of hostilities. Looking ahead, Jorge León, from Rystad Energy, explains in Guardian that Saudi Arabia will be left alone to shoulder the heavy burden of stabilizing the market, which predicts much greater volatility in the long term. The Arab fracture. Beyond barrels and dollars, the departure of the UAE is a direct symptom of a deep geopolitical fracture accelerated by the war. Emirates feels abandoned. The disappointment of the Gulf: As highlighted Al Jazeerathe decision comes shortly after harsh statements by Anwar Gargash, diplomatic advisor to the Emirati president. Gargash openly criticized the “historically weak” response of Arab countries and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to the Iranian attacks. According to Euronewsthe Emirates have had to absorb much of the impacts of missiles and drones, feeling that their OPEC allies have not provided them with political or military support. Direct tension with Riyadh: The departure has not been agreed with the de facto leader of the cartel. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei confirmed to Reuters who made this “political” decision without consulting Saudi Arabia. The relationship between both powers has been deteriorating for months due to economic competition and recent military disagreements, such as the collapse of their coalition in Yemen in December. An unexpected triumph in Washington. Curiously, this regional fracture represents a diplomatic victory for the American president. Donald Trump had been accusing OPEC of “scam the world” manipulating prices, while the United States paid for the military defense of the Gulf. The departure of the group’s third largest producer weakens exactly the structure that Trump had criticized so much. Towards a “new energy era”. Paradoxically, the flood of Emirati oil will not reach the markets tomorrow morning. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked by war, the impact on global supply will be limited in the short term because ships simply cannot leave. However, the message is sent. When the waters of the Persian Gulf calm, the world will find itself with a market flooded with Emirati crude oil, operating freely. The Emirates has decided to embrace a “new energy era”, the geopolitical map of the Middle East is being redrawn in the heat of the bombs, and OPEC, as we knew it, seems to be one of its first major collateral victims. Image | Emiel Molenaar Xataka | By blocking the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the US is dragging an unpredictable actor into the war: China

that the only one with missiles is Iran

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For weeks, Allied commanders did not understand why their most advanced systems were unable to intercept all the projectiles falling on the cities. The surprise was enormous when they verified that, in full Gulf Warsome were enough few Scud missiles thrown irregularly to force deploy huge resources defensive forces and alter the pace of an entire military campaign. The mathematics of missiles. After weeks of war, the confrontation in the Middle East It has ceased to be just a question of military capacity and has become a problem of specific inventories, with figures that condition any future decision. CNN counted through the last CSIS analysis that the United States has already consumed about 45% of its Precision Strike Missileabout 50% of the THAAD interceptors and Patriot, in addition to approximately 30% of their Tomahawks and more than 20% of the JASSM. In other words, although these levels do not prevent continued operations in the short term, they do significantly reduce the ability to sustain another high-intensity conflict in parallel, especially against an adversary like Iran. It’s not shooting, it’s replacing. The replacement of these systems introduces a clear boundary: annual production barely reaches about 100 Tomahawk units and less 500 JASSM-ERwhile interceptors like SM-3 or SM-6 They have even lower rhythms. Even with contracts to expand production, the period to recover previous levels oscillates, according to the Pentagonbetween three and five years. In practice, this means that every current launch has a future strategic cost, because there is no quick way to replace it in the event of escalation. Iran maintains the volume. Faced with this wear and tear, analysts from the Pentagon itself have assured that Iran preserves thousands of missiles ballistic and cruise, although many require reconditioning or have failures resulting from hasty modifications. Plus: problems in aerodynamic stability, propellant wear or changes in guidance systems (such as the transition to BeiDou after GPS interference) have reduced accuracy in some cases. Even so, they said that the volume is still sufficient to maintain launch rates for weekswhich introduces a saturation factor that complicates any defense. David Sling Defenses to the limit. The impact of that pressure has already been seen in the intensive use of interceptorswith systems like David’s Sling o Arrow 3 operating near critical levels. In fact, several analysts said that, in some scenarios, the reserves would not allow a continuous defense to be sustained. beyond 72 to 96 hours without immediate replenishment. It is not a trivial fact and, in fact, it would change the logic of the conflict, because even with advanced systems, a prolonged defense depends directly on the interceptor availabilitynot only its effectiveness. Operational limitations if resumed. The data that handles Washington They talk about a scenario where, if the war were reactivated, the United States would have about 2,800 to 3,000 Tomahawk and little more than 400 long-range guided bombssupported by aircraft carriers and destroyers, but with clear restrictions after prior consumption. For example, the use of less advanced munitions like the JDAM would imply greater exposure of aircraft to enemy defenses. In addition, logistical factors such as fuel arise here (with reduced European reserves around 20%) that would limit the duration of an intensive air campaign. The strait as added pressure. In parallel, Iran is clearly demonstrating ability to challenge the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining exports through oil tankers that avoid control by turning off transponders and indirect routes. Despite interceptions and diversions of more than 28 vessels, dozens of cargo ships and oil tankers they have managed to crosswhich shows that maritime control is not absolute and that Tehran retains room for economic and strategic maneuver. The great unknown. If you like, the result of all these factors is a scenario very different and disturbing for Washington, one where, after weeks mass consumptionthe United States enters a possible resumption with limited inventorieswhile Iran, despite its failures, continues to have sufficient volume to sustain throws. There is no doubt, that at least partially reverses the usual logic, because the risk for the United States is no longer just what it can launch, but what Iran can still continue launching day after day in a second part of the war where the dictates the missiles can change name. Image | National Museum of the US Navy, Naval Surface WarriorsUnited States Missile Defense Agency In Xataka | Europe has gotten down to work on one of its biggest geopolitical challenges: opening Hormuz without help from the US In Xataka | Iran has 300 internal reports where it models the war against the US. They are all based on the same thing: Ukraine

The US has just freed eight women that Iran was going to execute. The problem is that Iran says they were generated by AI

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Sometimes, an image can trigger unexpected consequences in international politics. During the Kosovo war, at the end of the nineties, a photograph released no clear context on alleged civilian victims provoked immediate reactions from governments and international organizations before their true origin could be verified. That episode left a lesson that is still valid: in high-tension scenarios, the impact of a story can be as fast as the difficulty to check if it’s true. Two versions for the same photos. The episode begins two days ago with Donald Trump asking through your social network Iran to stop the execution of eight women arrested after the protests, he also does so by publishing the image of the eight women, an anomalous situation that, coincidence or not, in a matter of hours takes a radical turn when Trump himself goes on to affirm who has achieved it. According to their version, some would be released and others would receive light sentences, presenting it as a gesture of good will before the alleged new negotiations. The problem: that from the beginning there is no verifiable data clear about their identities or their judicial situation, which leaves the story supported by information that is, at the very least, incomplete. Iran not only denies it, it dismantles the story. The Iranian response could not be more direct: There were no planned executions. They assure that some of the women were already free and that the rest, if convicted, would only face prison sentences. In addition, they accuse Trump of relying on false information and trying to build political success without a real basis. The shock quickly moves from the facts to the credibility of the person telling them. The leap into confusion. The situation escalates towards complete surrealism when Iranian official channels of their different embassies go one step further and affirm that part of the images released would have been generated with artificial intelligence. At that point, the discussion stops being whether they were going to be executed or not, and begins to question whether some of the protagonists exist as they have been presented, or if they simply exist. This change introduces such a crazy level of uncertainty and propaganda that it makes it very difficult to verify how much of the story is real. A real context that does not disappear. Be that as it may, and despite the confusion, the environment in which it occurs is documented. I remembered the Times newspaper that, after the protests in Iran, there are thousands of detainees and reports of unfair trials. In fact, there are human rights organizations that executions have been reported recent events and the use of the death penalty as a pressure tool. This means that, although this specific case is doubtful, the underlying problem is still relevant. Propaganda faster than facts. In any case, what we see is not new in a war, far from it. Throughout recent conflicts, several stories have shown how narrative can prevail over verification. For example, during the invasion of Kuwait in 1990, the testimony of a young woman known as “Nayirah,” who reported alleged crimes in hospitals, influenced international public opinion before it was learned that he was linked to a public relations campaign. In the 2003 Iraq war, claims about weapons of mass destruction marked strategic decisions no conclusive evidenceand in the Ukraine conflict, narratives such as of the “Ghost of kyiv” or some viral videos spread on networks became popular quickly before to be qualified or denied. In all cases, the pattern repeats itself: in war environments, political and emotional urgency accelerates the spread of stories that can influence real decisions long before their veracity is confirmed. Strategic tension that sets the pace. Of course, all of this occurs while continuing the pressure in the Strait of Hormuz, with attacks on ships and blockade of ports despite the ceasefire. Iran has conditioned any progress on lifting that blockade, while the United States maintains it as a pressure tool. And in that context, the episode of the eight women It is not isolated: it is an essential part of a scenario where the political narrative and the situation on the ground always advance in parallel. Image | Trump Social, Nara In Xataka | Europe has gotten down to work on one of its biggest geopolitical challenges: opening Hormuz without help from the US In Xataka | Iran has 300 internal reports where it models the war against the US. They are all based on the same thing: Ukraine

The Iran war has disrupted the jet fuel market. So Lufthansa has canceled 20,000 flights

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The war in Iran has punished many sectors, but few have been as shaken as aviation. First for the closure of much of the Middle East airspace, causing the worst crisis that airlines have suffered since the pandemic, and later due to fear of an escalation in the price of flights. Now to these fears we have added another one that is already taking shape: the cancellation of thousands of servicesconvicted of the scarcity of jet fuel. Lufthansa just demonstrated How serious is that threat? The (other) hangover of the Iran war. That the war in Iran threatens to impact airports around the world is nothing new. In fact he already did it in its first barswhen Tehran launched a series of attacks on the rest of the Persian Gulf countries that they blocked part of the region’s air traffic and hubs as important as the terminals in Doha or Dubai. Over the last few weeks, however, two major threats have been taking shape, especially considering that we are on the verge of summer and the international flow of tourists. has been growing for years: that the war skyrocket the price of flights or (even worse) that forces Cancel services. Checking the grills. Proof of how real (and well-founded) these fears are is that between March and April several airlines have acknowledged that they will have to retouch their grills. On March 17 for example Reuters revealed that SAS, a Scandinavian company, planned to cancel a thousand flights due to the rise in fuel prices. Delta Airlines, Air Canada, Cathay Pacific either Air New Zealand They have taken similar measures, tweaking their operations. Even the Dutch KLM has had no choice but to suspend 160 services scheduled for April. One figure: 20,000 flights. If there is a company that has shown how critical the situation is, it is the German Lufthansa, one of the largest airlines of the world. Financial Times (FT) has advanced that the company will cancel around 20,000 flights between May and October to save fuel, which represents one of the biggest cuts in the sector to adapt to the war in Iran. To be more precise, the German company will eliminate 120 daily flights starting next week and will dispense with those routes departing from Munich and Frankfurt that are not profitable. Trimming will be applied well into the fall. “The price has doubled”. “In total, about 20,000 short-haul flights will be eliminated from the program through October, equivalent to approximately 40,000 metric tons of jet fuel, the price of which has doubled since the outbreak of the conflict with Iran,” explains the company, which has confirmed the cancellations coinciding with a summit of the EU focused on war. Click on the image to go to the tweet. Fuel for six weeks. Lufthansa’s decision is much better understood if one takes into account the latest wake up call of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which a few days ago warned that the jet fuel reserves that Europe manages guarantee operations only in the short term. The notice came from the mouth of the organization’s executive director, Fatih Birol, who took advantage an interview with the Associated Press to warn of the coming panorama. “We are in a critical situation and this will have serious consequences for the global economy. The longer this continues, the worse it will be for economic growth and inflation around the world. Some countries may have more energy than others, but none, absolutely none, is immune to the crisis,” Birol reflected. before stopping at the specific case of Europe and the aeronautical sector: “We have perhaps six weeks of jet fuel. Is it the only warning sign? No. Apart from Birol or the trickle of cancellations announced by airlines such as KLM or Lufthansa, there are other indicators that reveal the extent to which the sector views its jet supply with concern. The EU is already being considered impose a mandatory fuel distribution, in an effort reminiscent of that deployed during the pandemic. Not only that. In Brussels it is already spoken to look for alternative supply sources, such as jet fuel produced in the US, or the release of strategic reserves. Click on the image to go to the tweet. Tickets 24% more expensive. In the United Kingdom, airlines have asked also to the authorities to relax noise regulations or reduce taxes on flights to address supply shortages. It makes sense considering how the war is impacting prices. The BBC has disclosed a study by the consulting firm Teneo that estimates that the conflict is already being felt in air fares: on average, it estimates that the cheapest tickets are 24% more expensive than a year ago, which is explained both by the price of fuel and the route diversions caused by the war. A percentage: 40%. If the war in Iran has served anything, it is to understand (remember, rather) the strategic role that the Strait of Hormuz plays in global supply chains. Its waters not only circulate the fifth part of the world’s oil and LNG, as well urea moves for fertilizer, helium for technology industry…and (exactly!) good part of aircraft fuel. It is estimated that more than 20% of the jet fuel transported by sea last year was channeled through the strait. If we talk about Europe, that percentage is even bigger. The war has not only hit that traffic, strangled by the closure of Hormuz, it has also paralyzed supplies from Kuwait, heavy weight of the sector, and has led other countries to apply protectionist policies. For example, China it did not take long to prohibit exports of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. As if all of the above were not enough, kerosene itself and its nature complicate the picture: Fuel cannot be stored for long without degrading, making their supply chains more sensitive to disruptions like those caused by war. Are these all warning signs? No. With summer just around the corner and a million-dollar … Read more

one where there are mines, bodyguards, an alliance with Iran… and no sign of the US

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In the late 1980s, during the Iran-Iraq War, the American frigate USS Samuel B. Roberts hit a mine in the Persian Gulf and nearly sank, forcing its crew to fight for hours to keep it afloat in one of the United States Navy’s most memorable emergency operations. The episode left a clear lesson that still applies today: in certain areas, an invisible threat can paralyze entire routes and change the balance of power without the need for a single shot. The European plan. He had exclusive the wall street journal that Europe has begun to design its own strategy to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical points in global energy trade, after weeks of war and blockade. The idea is not to intervene during the conflict, but prepare a subsequent operation that allows maritime traffic to be reactivated with safety guarantees. To this end, a broad coalition of countries willing to provide naval means and coordination is being put together, with the aim of restoring confidence to shipping companies and insurers. There is no doubt, the approach reflects a clear priority: stabilize the flow of trade without getting caught in a direct military escalation. Mission without Washington. The most striking element of the plan is the intention to exclude the United States of the operation, something unusual in this type of international deployments. The European proposal seeks to rely only on non-belligerent countries, which means leaving out the actors directly involved in the war and reducing the perception of confrontation. This decision is not only technical, but deeply politicalsince it responds to recent tensions between Washington and several European capitals. At the same time, generates internal doubts on whether a mission without American backing will have sufficient weight or deterrent capacity. Mines, escorts and a delicate balance with Iran. The core of the plan goes through three clear phases: first, unblock the exit of the trapped ships and then clear any possible mines deployed in the area. Finally, establish a military escort system that guarantees safe passage. In this scheme, Europe plays with a specific advantage, its capacity in demining operationswhere it has more resources than the United States. However, it all depends on a key factor: Iran’s acceptance, since any operation will require coordination with the coastal countries to avoid incidents. This turns the mission into a diplomatic balancing act as important as the military deployment. Skepticism. Although specific truces and temporary openings of the strait have been announced, the consensus among experts is that the situation far from stable. The presence of possible mines, episodes of shooting at ships and political uncertainty keep traffic paralyzed and insurance costs skyrocket. Hundreds of ships they are still blockedand companies in the sector are not willing to return without solid guarantees. In this context, European prudence responds to a complex reality: Opening the strait is not only a political decision, but a long and risky technical operation. Europe wants to act, but in its own way. The plan also reflects a desire for autonomy strategic, with France and the United Kingdom at the forefront, leading an initiative that seeks to demonstrate their own capacity in maritime security. The participation of countries like Germany or Italy It points to a larger scale operation, although conditioned by legal frameworks and parliamentary decisions. Still, they persist internal differences about the role the United States should play and about the right time to intervene. In other words, Europe thus tries to project unity while managing its own divisions. The background: uneasy alliance. In practice, the mission design involves a rather obvious paradox, because to guarantee the security of the strait, Europe will need to coordinate, directly or indirectly, with Iranthe same actor who has contributed to blocking it. In other words, the approach reveals to what extent the priority is to avoid a new escalation and rebuild a minimum of operational confidence in the area. At the same time, of course, it suggests a change in “nuclear” focus regarding Washingtonbetting on a more negotiated and less coercive route. A global balance. If you like, what is at stake is not only the expected reopening of the maritime route sooner or later, but rear stability of an artery through which an essential part of the world’s energy circulates. From that perspective, the way in which Europe manages this crisis will mark its role on the international stage, as well as its relationship with the United States and with regional powers. In an environment of tense alliances and divergent decisions, the european plan For Hormuz, it is emerging as a very risky bet that combines military capacity, diplomacy and political calculation in a balance already in itself. extremely fragile. Image | US NAVY In Xataka | From printing drones to looking at lasers, 300 reports have revealed that Iran’s battle manual has one name: Ukraine In Xataka | While everyone was looking at the Middle East, North Korea has had time to do what Iran has not been able to: go nuclear.

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