Iran

To locate the pilot lost in Iran, the US used two tools. One was given by Boeing, the other is science fiction

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The call quantum magnetometry has promised to measure magnetic fields so weak that they border on detectability, using microscopic defects in synthetic diamonds capable of registering imperceptible variations. In the laboratory, these techniques already allow biological signals to be observed at surprising scales, but always in environments controlled and at very short distances. Outside of these ideal conditions, between noise, interference and distance, the great unknown remains the same: how far that sensitivity really goes. The United States claims to have the answer, and it is very difficult to believe. Two tools to find a missing person. Washington has counted that the operation to rescue to the airman shot down in Iran was based on a very specific combination of technologies that, together, made the difference between finding a man or losing him in an immense terrain. On the one hand, the pilot had a standard and well-known system available as Boeing’s CSELa communications device that allows send encrypted signals via satellite and guide rescue teams with relative precision. This type of tool, widely distributed in the armed forces, was key to confirming that he was still alive and limiting his initial position in an extremely hostile environment. The other tool that borders on the implausible. The second element of the rescue is the one that has generated the most interest (and doubts), since different information supported by a exclusive to the New York Post point to the use of a system called “Ghost Murmur” capable of detecting the human heartbeat at long distance using quantum magnetometry combined with artificial intelligence. On paper, the idea is extraordinary in a movie, but apparently also in the real world: identify the electromagnetic signature of a living body in the middle of the desert, isolate it from noise and convert it into an operational coordinate. It happens that the unknowns also begin here, because these types of signals are extremely weak and, until now, they could only be measured at a very short distance in controlled environments, which raises serious doubts about its real range in combat conditions. Between the plausible and the inflated. The context of the rescue itself suggests that, rather than replacing the classic system, this technology would have acted as a complement under very specific conditions: an environment with low electromagnetic interference, few human signatures or signals, and a target forced to briefly expose itself to activate its beacon. That is, not so much an omniscient tool as a very limited capacityuseful in ideal scenarios but difficult to extrapolate to more complex situations. The narrative of “finding someone by their heartbeat from miles away” fits well as a concept or in a Nolan film, but until now it clashed with known physical limitations. The “Venezuelan” precedent. Many skeptical analysts have gone for the jugular of these claims, speaking reverse engineering of another futuristic weapon to achieve the “Ghost Murmur”. Because skepticism does not arise in a vacuum, but in a recent context where technologies wrapped in an almost fantastic halo have already been presented, such as the supposed “discombobulator” mentioned by Trump in the operation against Nicolás Maduro. In that case, experts pointed out that it was probably a mix of capabilities real (electronic warfare, acoustic weapons or directed energy systems) presented as a single almost magical device. The pattern is recognizable: existing technologies reinterpreted or exaggerated in the public narrative. The war is also fought in the technological story. If you also want, as a whole, the rescue reveals something deeper than a simple military operation: the growing importance of technological narrative in modern conflicts. The United States used a tangible tooleffective and proven to locate the pilot, no more no less than a GPSbut he also hinted at another capacity that, real or not in the terms described, projects a image of superiority almost total. And possibly there, between what is technically possible and what is communicated, there is a space where perception matters as much as reality, and where sometimes the border between advanced technology and science fiction becomes deliberately blurred. The rescue movie, of course, has already been practically written. Image | US Air Force In Xataka | The rescue of a fallen US pilot in Iran seems like a science fiction story. And there are elements to think that it is In Xataka | Iran has found a hole in Israel’s shield: turning a missile into an explosive “storm” in full descent

They have analyzed the coordinates of the rescue of the pilot in Iran. Not only do they not add up, they point to a very different mission from the US

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In the most complex military operations, it is not uncommon for open data (images, coordinates or videos) to allow reconstruct scenarios with a level of detail that was previously only available to the intelligence services. In recent years, independent analysts have come to identify locationsmovements and even operational failures crossing public information in a matter of hours. Because sometimes, the key is not in what is told, but in how they fit (or don’t) the visible pieces. The official version: Mission Impossible. It we count yesterday. The official narrative describes a rescue operation on a large scale to recover a crew member from an F-15E Strike Eagle shot down in Iran, with special forces deployed on the ground, multiple aircraft involved and direct confrontations with Iranian units. The pilot would have survived thanks to his training, emitting a signal from an elevated area while elite teams located and extracted him in a complex but successful mission. However, from the beginning it has attracted attention the enormous cost material, with aircraft destroyed or damaged worth hundreds of millions of dollars, something disproportionate for a conventional rescue operation. The first step: follow the coordinates. More than 48 hours after the rescue, the analyst of the popular Simplicius Substack has compiled all the information that has appeared about the operation. Its analysis begins by dismantling the official version based on a basic element: geolocation. The first information places the demolition in the southwest of Iran, near the coast (about 80 km), an area consistent with the type of operations that a combat fighter of this type would carry out. The problem? That the appearance of the subsequent videos and remains identified on the land that we commented yesterdaywith C-130 transport planes and destroyed American helicopters, appear at hundreds of kilometers awayin the vicinity of Isfahan, which introduces a contradiction that is difficult to ignore and forces us to rethink the entire sequence of events. One more thing. As clarified Also the analyst, the geolocation of the CSAR (rescue operation) only showed a group of search helicopters passing through that areathat is, it did not geolocate the remains of the downed F-15E. For all we know, those helicopters could have been passing from there to the place of the accident in Isfahan. However, it must be remembered that even official sources from the main US media outlets, all with direct contacts in the government, initially reported that the accident occurred precisely in the area where the CSAR helicopters were sighted and geolocated. That is, the inconsistency in the geolocation found is not based solely in a single test. Plus: it seems evident that it makes more sense for an F-15E to be operating in the coastal area and not hundreds of km deep in Isfahan dropping short-range bombs, a task that should correspond to stealthier aircraft. Even so, a subsequent geolocation supposedly located the F-15E accident just south of Isfahan. C-130 and MH-6 helicopters destroyed The pieces don’t fit. From there, the data has accumulated inconsistencies that further distort the official version. For example, the use of huge transport planes to rescue a single pilot, the alleged mechanical failures that forced to destroy aircraft on the ground despite evidence of impacts and shrapnel through images and videos. Not only that. The lack of coherence about how was he evacuated to the staff after these failures generate more than reasonable doubts. What real chance is there that the two MC-130s that flew some 100 US special forces members to Iran to rescue the last F-15 crew member, suffer at the same time mechanical failures and could not take off? But even if it were true,how they managed then remove that same number of people after both planes suffered those “mechanical failures”? The photo used for geolocation, which shows the crater, belongs to an original series of photos with remains of the F-15E The landing strip. Each detail, in isolation, could be explained, but together they draw a pattern that suggests something else was going on. In fact, the analyst explained that the geolocated remains of the C-130s, which apparently used a local “agricultural landing strip”, are located just on the other side of a mountain, about 35 km from the Isfahan nuclear facilitywhere Iranian near-military-grade enriched uranium is supposedly stored. This result comes from the previous image, that is, this would place the distance between the two places of the remains at about 25 km. The location to the northwest is the F-15E crash site, and the location to the southeast is the C-130 wreckage field. The geolocated remains of the C-130s, which apparently used the agricultural landing strip (32.223369, 51.897678), and which are located just on the other side of a mountain, about 35 km from the Isfahan nuclear facility, where Iran’s near-military-grade enriched uranium is supposedly stored Plot twist: the nuclear hypothesis. That proximity, just 35 km southeast of one of Iran’s main uranium deposits, it doesn’t seem casual and opens an alternative hypothesis: that the rescue operation was actually a cover for a mission much more ambitious. In fact, Trump I had already spoken to extract Iranian uranium, an operation that would require the construction of landing strips in the country. Therefore, it is plausible that the plan was already underway for some time, while the American president bought time by stating that it was only a theoretical “possibility” under consideration. Under this scenario, the presence of special forces, the volume of resources deployed and the risk assumed seem to fit better as part of a clandestine operation than as a simple rescue. A parallel narrative. With the official data taken together, the story evolves towards a different interpretation in which airstrikes, special forces activity and even the possible disinformation campaign attributed to the CIA They would be part of a coordinated operation to distract, confuse and execute deeply hidden objectives. Of course, the rescue would still be real, but it would cease to be the main objective and become the … Read more

To rescue the pilot lost in Iran, the US has told a story worthy of Spielberg. Some explosive images tell a very different story

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In military manuals, rescue missions in enemy territory are as rare as they are dangerous: In decades of modern conflicts, only a few have been successfully completed without becoming a complete disaster. Some have marked history for their failuresothers for their execution to the limit, but most share something in common: the margin of error It is practically non-existent. Two stories for the same mission. When explaining the rescue mission of an American pilot on Iranian territory, Washington has told a story that Spielberg himself would sign: a wounded airman, alone and hiding in a mountain crevice, resisting for almost two days while the enemy searches for him and an elite force that bursts in between explosions to get him out alive. Of course, there is another version that is not narrated by American communiqués, but by some explosive images launched from the Iranian side: destroyed aircraft, improvisation on the ground and an operation that, although successful in its end, seems much more chaotic than what was intended to be conveyed. Between the two, a story full of chiaroscuros is built where epic and uncertainty coexist. The demolition and the race against time. lThe story started several days ago with the downing of an F-15E in Iranian territory, an already exceptional fact as it was the first American fighter lost in combat in years. The two crew members eject, but only the pilot is quickly rescued, while the weapons systems officer is isolated in a hostile mountainous area. From there a race against time: The wounded airman climbs a ridge, hides in a crevice and emits intermittent signals so as not to give away their position, while Iranian forces, militias and even civilians motivated by rewards search the area. For hours, not even Washington is clear if he is still alive. The perfect official version. The American narrative presents the mission as an impeccable display of power and coordination, with special forces, bombers, drones and massive air cover executing one of the most complex rescue operations in its history. There is talk of surgical precision, absolute control of airspace and clean extraction no American casualtiesculminated with a triumphalist message that elevates the operation to a symbol of military superiority. The CIA involvement adds an almost cinematic component, with an apparent deception campaign that confuses the Iranian forces as they locate the pilot “like a needle in a haystack.” A US Army AH-6 Little Bird helicopter The “other” details. However, upon delving into all the data that has been appearing, important cracks appear in the story. The first rescue attempt fails under enemy fireseveral helicopters are damaged and at least one A-10 falls during the operation, which already calls into question the idea of ​​total control. It happens that the final extraction is not goes as planned. How much? Apparently, two special operations planes were trapped on the ground after their wheels sank on a makeshift runway, forcing emergency reinforcements to be sent and, attention, to destroy them later to prevent them from falling into Iranian hands. The images of the place They show charred remains of aircraft and helicopters, evidencing a much more eventful and risky operation than the official story suggests. The ambiguity of combat. Because another key point is the nature of the confrontation. While some versions speak of a “mass shooting”other more detailed sources indicate that there was no direct combat sustained on the ground, but rather air strikes against approaching Iranian forces. This difference is neither trivial nor minor, because it actually transforms a narrative of heroic confrontation in a very different where technological and aerial superiority was the truly decisive factor, reducing the drama of hand-to-hand combat, but increasing the feeling of distance between what was told and what happened. Propaganda, perception and war of stories. If you like, everything indicates that the rescue was not only a simple military operation, but a narrative battle in the middle of war. From the sidewalk in Washington, the story became a kind of “Easter miracle” useful for bolstering domestic support and projecting strength. However, from the sidewalk of Tehran, the simple fact of having shot down the plane It already served as proof that he could challenge the United States. In that context, every detail counts the same that every omissionbecause control of the story is almost as important as the tactical result. Success with many shadows. The pilot seems to have been finally rescued and that, in military terms, marks the success of the operation. However, the path to achieve it reveals something more complex: a mission on the edge, with failures, improvisation, extreme risks and decisions made on the fly that contradict the image of perfect execution. Perhaps for this reason, between the story that seems written for the cinema and the one revealed by the smoking remains on the ground, it remains a conclusion most uncomfortable: even the most successful operations can hide a reality much more fragile than one wants to admit. Image | US MARINE In Xataka | The US is going to end its war in the Middle East with a very uncomfortable reality: Iran had years of advantage underground In Xataka | If the question is “how close are we to an escalation in Iran,” the answer is US A-10s flying there

What is SMIC, China’s big chip manufacturer, doing right now? According to the US, sell them to Iran for the war

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The war in Iran continues. On the one hand it is said that it is almost finished, but on the other we have the shipment of thousands of American paratroopersmore calls for support and one sided offensives and from another. But in almost any conflict, not only those in the countries involved come into play, but also the allies. And the United States has leveled a pretty serious accusation against China: SMIC is selling chips to Iran. Well, “almost certainly.” SMIC in the spotlight. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp the great Chinese semiconductor foundry. Included in the blacklist of the United States government along with Huaweihas managed to develop advanced chips in record time. They have not only challenged everything the US thought they could dobut that association with Huawei and the country’s push for the technology industry have made it one of the spearheads of China’s technological sovereignty. That SMIC has been able to manufacture advanced chips when it was denied access to cutting-edge technology is something that upsets the US government, which reiterated the sanction and keeping the company on the blacklist for alleged ties to the Chinese government. And the latest accusations are not going to relax the tension. ANDUSA says yes. SMIC makes chips and obviously sells chips. And the United States claims that they are supplying technology to Iran. a few days ago, Reuters published an article in which it included two statements by “two senior officials in the Trump Administration” that suggested that Beijing, perhaps, is not staying as far away from the Iran war as they would have us believe. In the article they state that SMIC has been sending chip manufacturing tools to the Iranian army. This raised questions about Beijing’s stance in the conflict, with officials noting – on condition of anonymity – that the company began shipping the tools about a year ago and that they have “no reason to believe shipments have stopped.” A year ago, the United States was not at war with Iran, and China has long maintained a normal trade situation with Iran. US officials note that, in addition, “they have almost certainly also technically trained Iran on semiconductor technology.” And let’s remember that these chips are in everything: from routers to missiles. China says no. The Reuters article does not give any further information or details on whether Iranian tools that included US technology have been confiscated –something that does occur in other conflicts– and neither the Chinese embassy in Washington, SMIC or an Iranian spokesperson at the UN responded to requests for comment. Who has left Lin Jian, the spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, spoke out and did not hesitate to classify the report as “false information.” He accused certain media outlets of launching self-serving news and then classifying all reports as “false information.” On this issue, China has been caught between two waters, first condemning the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khameini by the Israeli and US forcesbut also expressing his rejection of the Iran attacks on Gulf states that house US bases. Back in focus. Beyond Iran, the United States accusations are part of an operation that began a few years ago. The veto of Huawei marked the beginning of the current trade war between China and the United States, but it also marked China’s ‘awakening’ in technological matters, quest for sovereignty and a technological war that branched into chips, robotics, energy, communications, artificial intelligence and in the military arm. SMIC is the large Chinese manufacturer that defied US vetoes by managing to manufacture the chip of the Huawei Mate 60 Pro before whom The US authorities could not believe and, if they manage to demonstrate that they are involved in supporting Israel when China is not actively participating in the conflict, they will have more reasons to intensify the vetoes and sanctions. And all this is framed in a current situation in which Trump and Xi Jinping will meet in a few days to discuss international relations and where the purchase of American technology by China is expected to be one of the points of the day, with NVIDIA very interested in biting a piece of the $50 billion pie that the Asian giant represents. Images | Ballistic Missile, ASML In Xataka | While the US bombs Iran, something unusual has happened: drones attacking the nuclear bases in North Dakota

The war in Iran is turning tourism upside down. And that translates into something for Mallorca: thousands more Germans

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In just over a month, the Middle East conflict has reminded the world that, at least in the 21st century, the seismic wave of wars is felt far beyond where the bombs fall. Its effect has already spread to the price of oilthe stock market and geopolitics and now threatens to shake the shopping basket. Another sector in which it is also leaving its mark (and a lot) is the touristwho has seen how in a matter of weeks flights were canceledthey reinforced routes and basically demand swung at a global level. And that is being felt strongly in the Balearic Islands. More flights to Mallorca. That the Balearic Islands see their flight schedule reinforced at the gates of Easter and with summer just around the corner is nothing new. What is curious is that the programming is shielded with dozens and dozens of extra frequencies, such as reveals Mallorca Diarywhich estimates that the war in Iran has led to more than a hundred extra flights being planned between Germany and Mallorca for the start of the season. In practice this translates into something that will soon be noticed in the Balearic Islands: tens and tens of thousands of extra places for German travelers until June. How many flights are there? Yes. The biggest injection will come from Eurowing, an airline low cost based in Düsseldorf and part of the Lufthansa Group. A few days ago its managers announced the scheduling of a hundred extra flights to Palma, an effort that they relate (without mentioning it directly and explicitly) to the instability that the Middle East is experiencing. “The airline responds to the changing demand of the sector and reinforces its offer to the western Mediterranean,” clarify. According to the calculations of the company, the reinforcement of its operations with Mallorca will result in 36,000 extra seats until the end of May. “Around 100 additional flights are planned to Palma, along with around 70 connections to the Canary Islands (Fuerteventura, Las Palmas, Tenerife), as well as to Faro, Málaga, Naples and Nice,” Eurowings specifies before specifying that the new scheduled flights will operate from the airports of Berlin, Cologne, Düsseldorf, Hamburg and Stuttgart. Beyond Eurowings. The Lufthansa airline is not the only one that has decided to redouble its commitment to the Balearic Islands. Condor Flugdienst, another German operator, will reactivate two connections with the Spanish archipelago starting in May: one will be the Dortmund-Palma route, which will be covered daily with an Airbus A321; the other will link the Münster/Osnabrück airport with Mallorca. The list of companies that will target the Balearic Islands offer in the coming weeks are Ryanair and TUI Fly. The first offers a route to Mallorca from Friedrichshaffen, in Baden-Württemberg (Germany). Regarding the second, Tourinews inform that a few days ago it announced the scheduling of 68 additional flights with around 10,000 seats from several German airfields, including Hannover and Munich. The destinations are spread across various points throughout southern Europe, including Greece, the Canary Islands and Mallorca. “They have changed their plans”. It is not just that German airlines seem to look with redoubled interest at the great destinations of southern Europe and the Mediterranean. The sector itself recognizes a change in trend that is related to the war in Iran and the influence it is exerting on the market. “Many tourists who had not yet booked and were planning to travel to destinations in the Middle East have changed their plans at the last minute and opted for other places,” clarify to Mallorca Diary from the Business Group of Travel Agencies of the Balearic Islands (AVIVA). a few days ago The reason assuredciting data from tour operators, that British reservations have skyrocketed by 40% in the Balearic Islands. The Canary Islands have also recorded an increase of 16%. “Last minute increases”. Last week the Hotel Business Federation of Mallorca (FEHM) calculated that the average occupancy during Easter will be around 70%, a level similar to that of past years, with 92% of its places activated. In the specific case of Palma, the forecasts were somewhat better and almost 90% of the available rooms were expected to be filled. These are, however, the starting data. In general, the group is cautious, remembering the “uncertainty” that reigns in the market internationally and also recognizing that its initial estimates may be out of date, opening the door to an increase in reserves. “There may be increases due to last minute sales,” anticipates the executive vice president of FEHM. Has the scenario changed that much? The truth is that yes. And in several aspects. The war and its consequences, which extend far beyond Iranian borders to the rest of the Persian Gulf, have made tourists from other countries be suspicious of destinations established until now. A few weeks ago, the Mabrian firm studied the security perception indices of nations such as Qatar, the Emirates and Saudi Arabia and found that the indicator had plummeted. The most curious thing is that it has also taken its toll on other distant tourist spots, such as Jordan, Türkiye or Egypt. The study was carried out shortly after the US and Israeli attack on Iran and Tehran’s subsequent reaction, which turned the airspace of much of the Gulf upside down. Since that region plays a key role as an air interconnection point on routes between Europe and Asia, the war also took its toll to connections with countries like Sri Lanka. Surprising (but not that surprising). In reality, the latest movements of Eurowings, TUI Ryanair only confirm what analysts tell us. weeks anticipating: that part of the demand that now views the Middle East with suspicion will be redirected towards other beach destinations in Western Europe. Which is it? In mid-March the BBC spoke from Portugal, Italy and Spain, as well as the Caribbean, Mauritius and the USA. They were not simple predictions. The British chain cites data from a famous travel agency, Thomas Cook, which already at that time … Read more

Iran has made energy a problem again. The United Kingdom believes it has found a solution in solar panels

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There are issues that we believe are resolved until reality reminds us that they are not. Energy is one of them. We have been talking about for years solar panelsof self-consumption and of alternatives to fossil fuelsbut in many cases they remained a rather gradual, almost optional decision. That has changed. The rise in energy prices linked to the conflict in Iran has brought the problem back to the forefront and forced several governments to react. The United Kingdom has decided to act. The specific measure. What the British Government has put on the table is not a generic promise, but a plan to try bring so-called plug-in solar panels to stores in “the coming months.” To make it possible, the Government is working with Amazon, Lidl and the manufacturer EcoFlow. There is also an interesting nuance here: we are talking about an American e-commerce giant and a very recognizable supermarket chain in Europe. What makes them different. At this point, it is worth stopping for a moment on what exactly we are talking about. These plug-in solar panels do not work like a traditional photovoltaic installation, which usually requires construction, permits, and the intervention of a professional. The idea here is much simpler: smaller devices that can be placed on balconies, walls or gardens and connected directly to the home electrical network. According to the British Government, this approach would allow them to be used without the need for an electrician, as long as technical and safety standards are adapted. The context. It is no longer a secret that the conflict in Iran has hit one of the most sensitive points of the global energy system, the Strait of Hormuzthrough which a relevant part of the world’s oil circulates. When that flow is threatened, prices react quickly, and that is just what has happened. In a few days, crude oil and gas have risen sharply and that impact ends up reaching Europe in the form of more expensive fuels and higher bills, which has forced several governments to act. The European mirror. If we leave the United Kingdom, what we see is a map of quite diverse responses to the same problem. Rising energy prices have forced action, but each country is doing it in its own way. Spain has opted for a broad package of aid and tax cuts, valued at around 5,000 million euroswhile Germany has focused on regulating the behavior of gas stations and Portugal has applied fiscal adjustments more specific about fuels. Faced with these measures, more focused on cushioning the immediate blow, the British movement introduces another approach, facilitating access to alternatives such as solar energy to reduce dependence in the medium term. Images | Caspar Rae In Xataka | Europe has a million reasons to fear an increase in the price of electricity. Spain has something else: renewables

Iran has turned Hormuz into the entrance to a VIP nightclub. And Spain enters the guest list and the US stays at the door

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Spain has never been a great military power, but it has been a key player in energy routes. In fact, more than 60% of the gas Its consumption arrives by ship and its refineries are among the most important in southern Europe. Furthermore, its geographical position makes it a natural bridge between Africa, America and the Mediterranean, which means that any change in global energy flows ends up impacting, directly or indirectly, its economy. Iran as oil watchdog. what is happening in Hormuz At this moment it breaks one of the great premises of the global order of recent decades. The naval superiority of the United States was assumed to be overwhelming, backed by a navy that far surpasses the rest of the world in capacity and deployment, and which guaranteed the security of the great sea routes. However, Iran has shown that it is not necessary to dominate the oceans to control a key point. It is enough to have the ability to deny access in a small space, combine asymmetric military pressure and assume the cost of the conflict. The result is that Washington, despite its power, is tied hand and foot and cannot reopen the strait without escalating the war to levels much more dangerous. This turns Iran into a kind of “watchdog” for world oil, capable of deciding who passes and who doesn’tand marks a paradigm shift where the control of strategic bottlenecks outweighs global military supremacy. A tight as a VIP nightclub. Yes, because Iran has transformed the Strait of Hormuz into something more than an energetic chokepoint: has converted it in a business which works in the same way as the door of an exclusive nightclub, that is, a space where not just anyone enters, but only those who are on the list. And there Spain appears among the guests (what have confirmed explicitly) and, of course, the “hostile ships” of the United States and Israel are clearly banned. In other words, they have established a system selective access that redefines control of one of the most critical routes on the planet and turns geopolitics into a direct filter on who can trade and who cannot. Spain and its no to war. Impossible to ignore the government statement Spanish with Iran’s latest move. Pedro Sánchez’s refusal to align with Donald Trump’s strategy broke the dynamic common in Europe. Spain blocked the use from its bases, refused to actively participate in the operation, and turned “no to war” into foreign policy. That movement, which seemed isolated, began to influence other countries. Germany and Italy, for their part, they took distance. And Europe stopped moving as a bloc, showing that there is room to challenge Washington without completely breaking the alliance. The “prize”. It remains to be seen if in the end it will be “poisoned”, but the truth is that this Spanish positioning has had immediate consequences. Iran has shown a special disposition towards Spain, facilitating ship transit linked to their country in a context in which the passage is practically closed for many others. This preferential treatment turns neutrality into an operational advantage tangible, but also introduces a delicate dimension. Spain gains room for maneuver in the short term, but at the cost of exposing itself to criticism and pressure from its allies, critics who may interpret such access as a dangerous concession in a highly polarized environment. The Iranian model that no one saw coming. I was counting this morning the financial times that Tehran is designing a maritime traffic control system much more structured than it might seem. Transit no longer depends solely on navigation, but of a process which combines diplomacy, supervision and, in some cases, high payments to guarantee passage. As? Apparently, the ships must coordinate with the Iranian authorities, undergo verifications and follow specific routes under surveillance. This “handmade” model that few saw coming in the middle of the war introduces a de facto “toll” that transforms the strait into an economic and political tool at the same time, reinforcing Iran’s ability to influence global trade. A global bottleneck. The impact of this change is enormous if we take into account the importance of the Strait of Hormuz. How have we been countingit passes approximately one fifth of world oil, as well as gas and essential raw materials for the global economy. The war has reduced traffic drastically, has increased attacks on ships and has generated a situation of great uncertainty for thousands of sailors. What was once a predictable route has become a high risk spacewith immediate consequences on energy prices and market stability. From highway to guarded corridor. They explained in The Guardian through a visual analysis that the functioning of the strait has also changed in operational terms. The usual routes have been replaced by controlled runners closer to the Iranian coast, where authorities can directly supervise transiting ships. This system allows almost individualized traffic management, reducing the volume of passage and increasing control on each vessel. The result is that Hormuz has stopped behaving as an international maritime highway and begins to function as a regulated access, where each movement depends on prior authorization. Consequences. In the long term, this model opens the door for Iran to obtain important income and consolidate a tool for strategic pressure on world trade. However, also raises legal issues and diplomatic tensions significant, since it questions basic principles of international maritime law. Given this scenario, other countries could accelerate the search for alternatives, such as new energy infrastructure or different trade routes (China and Russia they are already doing it). If this process is consolidated, the result could be a system fragmentation global, where access to key resources depends increasingly on political decisions and less on norms shared for years. Image | eutrophication&hypoxiaNARA, US Navy, اری In Xataka | Israel has found the secret route of the war in Ukraine: it has just bombed the “Uber of shahed drones” between Russia and Iran In Xataka | Iran is … Read more

Saudi Arabia had billions to build the future in the desert. He has decided to sacrifice them to destroy Iran

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The cranes have stopped roaring in the Tabuk desert. There where it should rise a colossal artificial lake at 2,600 meters high and a science fiction metropolis valued in billionsToday the priority is to look at the sky looking for the trail of ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) had promised the world a glass and petrodollar utopia called NEOM, a monument to his own ego designed to whitewash the regime’s image. However, the harsh reality of the Middle East has ended up imposing itself on the renders in 3D. A crossroads in the gulf. We are looking at what is now, for all intents and purposes, a Third Gulf War, and Saudi Arabia has reached a historic crossroads. Caught in the war waged by the United States and Israel against Iran, the Saudi monarchy faces an existential dilemma: save its economy and its megalomaniac pharaonic project, or take advantage of the chaos to dismantle, once and for all, the regime in Tehran. And judging by the shadow movements of its leaders, Riyadh seems willing to let its economic utopia bleed if it means it can win this war. Facing the gallery. Behind closed doors, Saudi Arabia’s message is one of absolute containment. In recent communicationsthe Saudi government has insisted that it has “always supported a peaceful resolution” and that its only priority is defending its population and infrastructure from daily attacks. This is what an analysis by Dr. Turki Faisal Al-Rasheed has defined as “strategic patience”: a tactic in which Riyadh avoids direct confrontation to protect its investments, while subtly encouraging the weakening of its regional rival. The reality is more complex. However, the leaks tell a very different story. As revealed The New York TimesBased on sources informed by US officials, MBS has been privately pressuring US President Donald Trump not to stop the war. The crown prince sees the current US-Israeli military campaign as a “historic opportunity” to destroy Iran’s hardline government. The talks have reached the point where MBS would have advocated for ground operations and even the military takeover of Kharg Island, the Iranian oil heart. The diplomatic board is abuzz. Mohamed bin Salmán’s phone does not stop ringing, as he urgently needs to shield his vital infrastructure from attacks and, to do so, he relies on the Western umbrella. As detailed ReutersBritish Prime Minister Keir Starmer personally telephoned MBS to condemn the Iranian offensive and confirm the deployment of more British defensive military equipment. London’s goal is to protect the kingdom and try to ensure that the sea trade route does not completely collapse. But while MBS is piling up shields and secretly pressuring Trump not to relax the blow against Iran, other regional allies are desperately trying to put out the fire before it devastates the entire Gulf. As revealed by the agency AnadoluPakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif contacted the crown prince to underline the “urgent need” for a de-escalation. Islamabad’s move is not a toast to the sun: Pakistan has emerged as the great shadow mediator, to the point of offering to host direct talks between the United States and Iran based on a 15-point American peace plan. The sacrifice of Vision 2030. “It’s the last thing he wanted. He wants stability and order, he doesn’t want missiles or drones flying.” This is how forceful an expert seemed consulted by him Financial Times. The diplomatic “detente” that Saudi Arabia had signed with Iran in 2023 has been shattered. Iranian retaliatory attacks have hit the giant Ras Tanura refinery, the Shaybah field and the Prince Sultan air base. The cost of this war for MBS’s dreams is already incalculable. Formula 1 had to cancel its April races. In the entertainment sector, the CEO of Savvy Games Group recognized that the war escalation It will “cool the perception” of Saudi Arabia as a safe destination for investment of 38 billion in eSports. The biggest collateral victim: NEOM. The artificial lake project Trojenaawarded for $4.7 billion to an Italian construction company, is already facing leaks about delays of between three and four years. The 2029 Winter Games have been postponed indefinitely and the extra costs suffocate an already deficient budget. The war and instability in the Red Sea discourage foreign investment, vital for these science fiction cities to go from render to reality. The reality of the Saudi coffers is critical. As revealed The New York TimesEven before the conflict broke out, the crown prince was already facing serious financial challenges. The 2030 deadline is approaching and the government assumes budget deficit forecasts for the coming years, suffocated by excessive spending on megaprojects and vast investments in artificial intelligence that are straining the country’s resources to the limit. And a prolonged war threatens to blow everything up, since MBS’s success depends on a single factor that is currently non-existent: a safe environment for investors and tourists. Holding the pulse. To withstand the challenge, Saudi Arabia has had to resort to an engineering work born of fear in the 80s. With the Strait of Hormuz strangled by the Iranian threat, Riyadh has activated its logistical “antidote.” State oil company Aramco is pumping against the clock through the East-West Pipeline, a 1,200 kilometer pipeline that crosses the desert to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The objective is to move up to 7 million barrels a day by land, avoiding Tehran’s missiles. The landscape in Yanbu is like something out of a movie: an “army” of at least 25 supertankers (VLCC) crowds on the coast to evacuate some 50 million barrels. However, there are no magic solutions. The port has a physical funnel (it can only load between 4 and 4.5 million barrels per day) and, in addition, ships must cross the Bab al-Mandab Strait, exposing themselves to the Houthi rebels. Added to this is that the pipeline only moves crude oil, leaving markets such as Europe without their vital supplies of refined products such as diesel, exacerbating the global energy … Read more

Iran has just crossed the great energy red line. Türkiye is the first victim of a blackout that is already looking at Europe

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We had been holding our breath for weeks, accepting the logistical tension in the Strait of Hormuz as the new normal. However, the war has crossed an irreversible red line. We have gone from a trade blockade to the physical destruction of the world’s energy engine, and the consequences are already being felt in the global economy. The impact was so immediate that the price of natural gas in Europe skyrocketed by 35%. Global interdependence has caused the first major domino to fall to be thousands of kilometers from the epicenter: Turkey has become the first country to suffer a gas supply cut, marking the beginning of a chain reaction. The blow to the energetic heart. It is not just any objective. As explained Deutsche Welle, South Pars is the largest natural gas reserve in the world – shared with Qatar, which calls its part North Dome – and contains enough gas to supply the world’s needs for 13 years. It is the basis of Iran’s energy survival. The response from Tehran was withering and expansive. As detailed in the Wall Street JournalIran did not limit itself to responding to Israel, but attacked vital infrastructure in neighboring countries, launching missiles against the gigantic Ras Laffan industrial complex in Qatar (the largest liquefied natural gas facility in the world) and refineries in Saudi Arabia. In the midst of this war chaos, Iran turned off the tap: Tehran suddenly paralyzed its natural gas exports to Türkiye. Türkiye in the eye of the hurricane. The cutoff to Türkiye is not an anecdote, it is the symptom of a systemic crisis. According to the data provided by BloombergLast year, Ankara imported around 13% or 14% of its total gas needs (about 7 billion cubic meters) from Iran. To the gallery, the Turkish government tries to project calm. How to collect ReutersTurkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar has categorically assured that “there are no supply problems” and that the country’s storage facilities are at 71% of their capacity. Furthermore, the minister insists that oil dependence of the Middle East is a “manageable 10%” and they are already accelerating diversification agreements with giants such as TotalEnergies, Exxon and Shell. The markets are not optimistic. The experts consulted by Middle East eye They point out that Turkey has alternatives – such as increasing the flow from Russia or Azerbaijan – but the closing of the Iranian tap will force Ankara to compete fiercely in the international market for emergency shipments of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). Panic reaches Europe. And this is where the domino effect hits us directly. As Türkiye goes on a desperate hunt for LNG ships, the pressure on prices becomes unsustainable for the Old Continent. The day after the start of the conflict, the price of gas rose 55%. However, in the midst of this European chaos, one country is resisting the challenge much better than its neighbors: Spain. Thanks to a massive deployment of solar and wind energy, our country manages to cushion the initial blow by sinking prices during daylight hours. But the transition is painfully incomplete and we are not invulnerable. As analyst Antonio Aceituno, from Tempos Energía, warns, the Spanish balance is broken when evening falls. When the sun disappears, gas combined cycles begin to cover demand, returning tension to prices. It is empirical proof that, without massive batteries to guard the sun, at eight in the afternoon we are still at the mercy of what happens in the Strait of Hormuz. As the expert Gerard Reid reflects in Euronewsit is preferable to depend on China to import a solar panel once every 25 years, than to depend on gas from the Persian Gulf every day. Broken diplomacy. Arab governments are “furious” because they feel the US-Israeli strategy has put a target on their backs. For its part, Qatar has called the attacks on its facilities a “dangerous and irresponsible step” and a direct threat to its national security. In the midst of this powder keg, Washington’s role is erratic. President Donald Trump took to social media to deny prior knowledge of the Israeli attack on South Pars. However, Trump did not hesitate to issue a brutal ultimatum to Tehran: if it attacks Qatar again, the United States will “massively blow up the entire” Iranian oilfield. The scars of a systemic war. As my colleague Miguel Jorge analyzes well,the dynamic that has been activated is dangerously reminiscent of the 1991 Gulf War. It is no longer about destroying military capabilities or political pressure; We are facing a war against the very infrastructure that supports the states. The apparent lightness with which this conflict has developed has dragged us into a dead end. Iran has shown that it does not need to win a conventional military war; It is enough for him to set the energetic heart of the planet on fire. Even if a ceasefire were signed tomorrow, the material reality is inescapable. Charred refineries and dry pipelines to Türkiye are not rebuilt with signatures on a piece of paper. The scar on the world’s infrastructure will take years to heal, and the crisis that we had been avoiding for months has already detonated irreversibly. Image | Hamed Malekpour Xataka | The red lines are ceasing to exist: the fear of the US and Qatar in the face of Iran’s attacks on basic infrastructure

just bombed the “Uber of shahed drones” between Russia and Iran

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Although more than 90% of world trade travels by sea, there are routes that do not even appear on common trade maps and yet concentrate all types of critical flows of goods and technology. In some of these corridors, it is enough to turn off a simple transponder to disappear from the radar and turn an ordinary journey into something much more difficult to track. And one of them directly “connects” the war in Ukraine with that in Iran. The “Uber of the shahed.” Israel has found and beaten much more than a port: it has attacked the invisible highway that connected two apparently separate wars, that of Ukraine and the Middle East. As? For months, the Caspian Sea functioned as a discreet runner where Russia and Iran exchanged Shahed drones, ammunition and technology far from Western reach, a true “Uber of the Shahed” that moved weapons silently while the ships they turned off their transponders. This logistical system allowed the same drones that fell on kyiv or Kharkiv to also fuel attacks in the Gulf, and its partial destruction It not only aims to disrupt supplies, but also reveals the extent to which both conflicts are intertwined. A key route for two simultaneous wars. Because the Caspian corridor was not a secondary route, but a centerpiece of the Russian and Iranian military equipment, used to transport hundreds of thousands of projectiles and millions of ammunition, in addition to drones that both countries they already produce jointly. They remembered in the Wall Street Journal that Russia depended on this route to sustain its war effort in Ukraine, while Iran used it to project power in the Middle East, turning maritime traffic between Bandar Anzali and Russian ports into a critical logistics artery. Its hybrid nature, mixing civil commerce with military shipments, made its detection and blocking even more difficult. Technological and total war partners. I was counting this morning the financial times that the relationship between Moscow and Tehran has evolved from one-off cooperation to integration ever deeperone in which Russia provides intelligence, satellite images and technological improvements, while Iran provides expertise in cheap drones and mass production. However, that relationship is no longer one-way: Russia has perfected the Shahed in Ukraine (improving navigation, payload and jam resistance) and is now in a position to return Iran vmore advanced versionscapable of increasing the effectiveness of their attacks or serving as a basis for new generations of weapons. The Israeli coup and its effect. Apparently the attack against Bandar Anzali It has destroyed key infrastructure, from ships to command and maintenance centers, with the explicit aim of demonstrating that not even the Caspian is a safe space for Iran. Beyond the physical damage, the operation also seeks to disorganize temporarily the flow of weapons and send a strategic message: Israel can reach critical logistical nodes even in areas considered outside of direct conflict. Plus: By affecting a route that also transports civilian goods such as wheat or energy, the coup places additional pressure on Iranian internal stability. A system also vulnerable. Despite the impact, neither Russia nor Iran depend on a single path, and it is likely that redirect your shipments to other ports or routes, maintaining the flow, although with greater costs and delays. That said, the attack has exposed a structural weaknessThere is no doubt: the need to maintain discreet but concentrated logistics corridors, susceptible to being identified and hit. Put another way, modern war is not only fought on the front lines, but in these invisible networks that sustain production and supply. Strategic message. If you also want, what has happened in the Caspian redefines the map of the conflict, because it shows that wars are no longer a kind of watertight compartments, but rather interconnected systems where a logistics chain can feed multiple fronts. By bombing this route, Israel has not only hit Iran, but also indirectly the russian military machinery in Ukraine, showing that the battle for drones (and the chains that transport them) is a global conflict. From that prism, the “Uber of the Shahed” was not just another route: it was the symbol of a new form of war, one that is now also a priority objective. Image | Alma, Wikimedia, Kyiv City State Administration In Xataka | Drones and ballistic missiles have revolutionized warfare. Iran suspects there is another weapon: rain theft In Xataka | Iran has sent a message with a ballistic missile 4,000 km away: Europe is within reach, including Spain

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