Iran

A superyacht has just crossed Hormuz before the astonished gaze of the US and Iran. Its flag has confirmed that mines are not for everyone

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In 2019, during one of the highest recent tensions in the Persian Gulf, several marine insurers they raised their premiums so much that some shipowners chose to keep their ships anchored for weeks rather than crossing certain routes considered too dangerous. In parallel, other ships continued sailing with relative normality thanks to apparently minor details such as their registration or the documentation they carried, making it clear that, even in times of greatest uncertainty, not all ships play with the same rules. A strategic step converted into a global funnel. we have been counting. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil normally circulates, has become one of the most tense points of the planet after the outbreak of the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, with traffic plummeting from more than 130 ships daily to just a few dozen and hundreds of ships trapped waiting for safe conditions. The situation has skyrocketed energy prices and generated a domino effect in global trade, while Tehran demands permits to cross and Washington threatens to intercept certain movements. In this scenario, crossing this bottleneck has become an operation fraught with military, legal and economic risks. Or maybe not so much. A superyacht that defies the blockade. Because in the midst of that collapse, he Northa luxury superyacht valued at just over $500 million and linked to the Russian oligarch Alexei Mordashovachieved what very few have achieved in recent weeks: crossing Hormuz from Dubai to Oman without incident. With more than 140 meters in length, several decks, a swimming pool, heliports and even a convertible hangar, its journey not only contrasts with the general paralysis of maritime traffic, but also makes it a striking anomaly in an environment where even large oil companies prefer not to take risks. Your journey, monitored in real timefollowed routes that other ships have used with some type of coordination in the area, although without official confirmation about permits. Alexey Mordashov The invisible key. Possibly the most revealing element of this episode is not in the luxury of the ship, but in how did he get through without being detained or attacked, in a context where any ship can become a target. Everything indicates that he achieved it with a combination of factors: not heading to Iranian ports (which would place it outside the direct focus of the US blockade), sailing through corridors tolerated by Iran and, above all, operating under a diffuse legal structure where the formal property does not entirely coincide with the real one. In other words, in an environment where each movement is interpreted as a political signal, the flag, the chosen route and the legal ambiguity act as a kind of tacit safe conduct that allows one to move between red lines without completely crossing them. Geopolitics, sanctions and alliances in the background. Of course, the journey of North cannot be understood without the political background that surrounds it, marked by the close relationship between Russia and Iran and by the fact that Vladimir Putin maintains a strategic support to Tehran in full escalation with the West. Mordashov, one of the men richest in Russia and sanctioned for the United States and the European Union since the invasion of Ukraine, you have already seen other seized assetswhich has led many oligarchs to move their assets to safer jurisdictions. In this context, the passage of the yacht through Hormuz also becomes a sign of the extent to which certain networks of power and alliances can influence what, in theory, should be a total blockade. A symptom of how conflicts work. Beyond the anecdote, the episode reflects a dynamic increasingly common in contemporary conflicts: while great powers impose restrictions and threats, they always there are gray spaces where specific actors manage to move thanks to combinations of diplomacy, crossed interests and legal loopholes. The fact that a luxury superyacht can cross one of the most dangerous points on the planet in the middle of a crisis, while hundreds of ships remain immobilized and frightened by mines and drones in the surrounding area, illustrates how power is not only measured in military capacity, but also in ability to browse (literally and figuratively) between rules that are not always applied uniformly. Image | POT, Wolfgang Fricke In Xataka | The US resurrected the “right of prey” to capture a ship from China: the problem is that China has taken note In Xataka | Ukraine taught how to use drones. Iran has gone one step further: turning them into a crusher for US radars and bases

Unintentionally, the war in Iran has dynamited the great oil cartel

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The energy earthquake that caused the Third Gulf War has just claimed an unexpected victim: the unity of the oil cartel. As of May 1, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will no longer be part of OPEC and its OPEC+ alliance. As reported by the state news agency WAMin Abu Dhabi consider that it is time to prioritize their “national interest.” After spending almost six decades making “great sacrifices”, the Emirati Government considers that stage over and prefers to fly alone, guided by its own “strategic and economic vision” far from the limits of the group. The context could not be more volatile. The Strait of Hormuz—through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil normally transits— is submerged in operational chaos due to Iranian threats and attacks, in addition to the US blockade of Iranian ports. As explained Reutersin this scenario of suffocation, the Emirates has decided that its energy future needs to maneuver without the ties of Vienna. The beginning of the end of quotas. The impact of this exit is tectonic for the oil market. As analyst Saul Kavonic warns in the BBCthis breakup could be “the beginning of the end for OPEC.” With the departure of Emirates, the cartel loses approximately 15% of its total capacity and one of its most rigorous members, leaving the organization weakened and with only 11 core members. The key to this divorce lies in production, since the Emirati authorities had been complaining for some time that the cartel’s quotas unfairly limited their exports. As detailed by Robin Mills, analyst consulted by the cnnOPEC kept the Emirates restricted to a production of 3.2 million barrels per day, when the country has invested aggressively to reach a real capacity close to 5 million. The Emirates “have been eager to pump more oil for some time,” notes David Oxley of Capital Economics in the same medium. The economic consequences are already being felt. The World Bank, which classifies this crisis as the largest supply loss on record, predicts a 25% increase in energy prices. Brent crude oil has experienced extreme volatility, fluctuating between $104 and $119 per barrel since the start of hostilities. Looking ahead, Jorge León, from Rystad Energy, explains in Guardian that Saudi Arabia will be left alone to shoulder the heavy burden of stabilizing the market, which predicts much greater volatility in the long term. The Arab fracture. Beyond barrels and dollars, the departure of the UAE is a direct symptom of a deep geopolitical fracture accelerated by the war. Emirates feels abandoned. The disappointment of the Gulf: As highlighted Al Jazeerathe decision comes shortly after harsh statements by Anwar Gargash, diplomatic advisor to the Emirati president. Gargash openly criticized the “historically weak” response of Arab countries and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to the Iranian attacks. According to Euronewsthe Emirates have had to absorb much of the impacts of missiles and drones, feeling that their OPEC allies have not provided them with political or military support. Direct tension with Riyadh: The departure has not been agreed with the de facto leader of the cartel. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei confirmed to Reuters who made this “political” decision without consulting Saudi Arabia. The relationship between both powers has been deteriorating for months due to economic competition and recent military disagreements, such as the collapse of their coalition in Yemen in December. An unexpected triumph in Washington. Curiously, this regional fracture represents a diplomatic victory for the American president. Donald Trump had been accusing OPEC of “scam the world” manipulating prices, while the United States paid for the military defense of the Gulf. The departure of the group’s third largest producer weakens exactly the structure that Trump had criticized so much. Towards a “new energy era”. Paradoxically, the flood of Emirati oil will not reach the markets tomorrow morning. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked by war, the impact on global supply will be limited in the short term because ships simply cannot leave. However, the message is sent. When the waters of the Persian Gulf calm, the world will find itself with a market flooded with Emirati crude oil, operating freely. The Emirates has decided to embrace a “new energy era”, the geopolitical map of the Middle East is being redrawn in the heat of the bombs, and OPEC, as we knew it, seems to be one of its first major collateral victims. Image | Emiel Molenaar Xataka | By blocking the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the US is dragging an unpredictable actor into the war: China

that the only one with missiles is Iran

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For weeks, Allied commanders did not understand why their most advanced systems were unable to intercept all the projectiles falling on the cities. The surprise was enormous when they verified that, in full Gulf Warsome were enough few Scud missiles thrown irregularly to force deploy huge resources defensive forces and alter the pace of an entire military campaign. The mathematics of missiles. After weeks of war, the confrontation in the Middle East It has ceased to be just a question of military capacity and has become a problem of specific inventories, with figures that condition any future decision. CNN counted through the last CSIS analysis that the United States has already consumed about 45% of its Precision Strike Missileabout 50% of the THAAD interceptors and Patriot, in addition to approximately 30% of their Tomahawks and more than 20% of the JASSM. In other words, although these levels do not prevent continued operations in the short term, they do significantly reduce the ability to sustain another high-intensity conflict in parallel, especially against an adversary like Iran. It’s not shooting, it’s replacing. The replacement of these systems introduces a clear boundary: annual production barely reaches about 100 Tomahawk units and less 500 JASSM-ERwhile interceptors like SM-3 or SM-6 They have even lower rhythms. Even with contracts to expand production, the period to recover previous levels oscillates, according to the Pentagonbetween three and five years. In practice, this means that every current launch has a future strategic cost, because there is no quick way to replace it in the event of escalation. Iran maintains the volume. Faced with this wear and tear, analysts from the Pentagon itself have assured that Iran preserves thousands of missiles ballistic and cruise, although many require reconditioning or have failures resulting from hasty modifications. Plus: problems in aerodynamic stability, propellant wear or changes in guidance systems (such as the transition to BeiDou after GPS interference) have reduced accuracy in some cases. Even so, they said that the volume is still sufficient to maintain launch rates for weekswhich introduces a saturation factor that complicates any defense. David Sling Defenses to the limit. The impact of that pressure has already been seen in the intensive use of interceptorswith systems like David’s Sling o Arrow 3 operating near critical levels. In fact, several analysts said that, in some scenarios, the reserves would not allow a continuous defense to be sustained. beyond 72 to 96 hours without immediate replenishment. It is not a trivial fact and, in fact, it would change the logic of the conflict, because even with advanced systems, a prolonged defense depends directly on the interceptor availabilitynot only its effectiveness. Operational limitations if resumed. The data that handles Washington They talk about a scenario where, if the war were reactivated, the United States would have about 2,800 to 3,000 Tomahawk and little more than 400 long-range guided bombssupported by aircraft carriers and destroyers, but with clear restrictions after prior consumption. For example, the use of less advanced munitions like the JDAM would imply greater exposure of aircraft to enemy defenses. In addition, logistical factors such as fuel arise here (with reduced European reserves around 20%) that would limit the duration of an intensive air campaign. The strait as added pressure. In parallel, Iran is clearly demonstrating ability to challenge the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining exports through oil tankers that avoid control by turning off transponders and indirect routes. Despite interceptions and diversions of more than 28 vessels, dozens of cargo ships and oil tankers they have managed to crosswhich shows that maritime control is not absolute and that Tehran retains room for economic and strategic maneuver. The great unknown. If you like, the result of all these factors is a scenario very different and disturbing for Washington, one where, after weeks mass consumptionthe United States enters a possible resumption with limited inventorieswhile Iran, despite its failures, continues to have sufficient volume to sustain throws. There is no doubt, that at least partially reverses the usual logic, because the risk for the United States is no longer just what it can launch, but what Iran can still continue launching day after day in a second part of the war where the dictates the missiles can change name. Image | National Museum of the US Navy, Naval Surface WarriorsUnited States Missile Defense Agency In Xataka | Europe has gotten down to work on one of its biggest geopolitical challenges: opening Hormuz without help from the US In Xataka | Iran has 300 internal reports where it models the war against the US. They are all based on the same thing: Ukraine

The US has just freed eight women that Iran was going to execute. The problem is that Iran says they were generated by AI

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Sometimes, an image can trigger unexpected consequences in international politics. During the Kosovo war, at the end of the nineties, a photograph released no clear context on alleged civilian victims provoked immediate reactions from governments and international organizations before their true origin could be verified. That episode left a lesson that is still valid: in high-tension scenarios, the impact of a story can be as fast as the difficulty to check if it’s true. Two versions for the same photos. The episode begins two days ago with Donald Trump asking through your social network Iran to stop the execution of eight women arrested after the protests, he also does so by publishing the image of the eight women, an anomalous situation that, coincidence or not, in a matter of hours takes a radical turn when Trump himself goes on to affirm who has achieved it. According to their version, some would be released and others would receive light sentences, presenting it as a gesture of good will before the alleged new negotiations. The problem: that from the beginning there is no verifiable data clear about their identities or their judicial situation, which leaves the story supported by information that is, at the very least, incomplete. Iran not only denies it, it dismantles the story. The Iranian response could not be more direct: There were no planned executions. They assure that some of the women were already free and that the rest, if convicted, would only face prison sentences. In addition, they accuse Trump of relying on false information and trying to build political success without a real basis. The shock quickly moves from the facts to the credibility of the person telling them. The leap into confusion. The situation escalates towards complete surrealism when Iranian official channels of their different embassies go one step further and affirm that part of the images released would have been generated with artificial intelligence. At that point, the discussion stops being whether they were going to be executed or not, and begins to question whether some of the protagonists exist as they have been presented, or if they simply exist. This change introduces such a crazy level of uncertainty and propaganda that it makes it very difficult to verify how much of the story is real. A real context that does not disappear. Be that as it may, and despite the confusion, the environment in which it occurs is documented. I remembered the Times newspaper that, after the protests in Iran, there are thousands of detainees and reports of unfair trials. In fact, there are human rights organizations that executions have been reported recent events and the use of the death penalty as a pressure tool. This means that, although this specific case is doubtful, the underlying problem is still relevant. Propaganda faster than facts. In any case, what we see is not new in a war, far from it. Throughout recent conflicts, several stories have shown how narrative can prevail over verification. For example, during the invasion of Kuwait in 1990, the testimony of a young woman known as “Nayirah,” who reported alleged crimes in hospitals, influenced international public opinion before it was learned that he was linked to a public relations campaign. In the 2003 Iraq war, claims about weapons of mass destruction marked strategic decisions no conclusive evidenceand in the Ukraine conflict, narratives such as of the “Ghost of kyiv” or some viral videos spread on networks became popular quickly before to be qualified or denied. In all cases, the pattern repeats itself: in war environments, political and emotional urgency accelerates the spread of stories that can influence real decisions long before their veracity is confirmed. Strategic tension that sets the pace. Of course, all of this occurs while continuing the pressure in the Strait of Hormuz, with attacks on ships and blockade of ports despite the ceasefire. Iran has conditioned any progress on lifting that blockade, while the United States maintains it as a pressure tool. And in that context, the episode of the eight women It is not isolated: it is an essential part of a scenario where the political narrative and the situation on the ground always advance in parallel. Image | Trump Social, Nara In Xataka | Europe has gotten down to work on one of its biggest geopolitical challenges: opening Hormuz without help from the US In Xataka | Iran has 300 internal reports where it models the war against the US. They are all based on the same thing: Ukraine

The Iran war has disrupted the jet fuel market. So Lufthansa has canceled 20,000 flights

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The war in Iran has punished many sectors, but few have been as shaken as aviation. First for the closure of much of the Middle East airspace, causing the worst crisis that airlines have suffered since the pandemic, and later due to fear of an escalation in the price of flights. Now to these fears we have added another one that is already taking shape: the cancellation of thousands of servicesconvicted of the scarcity of jet fuel. Lufthansa just demonstrated How serious is that threat? The (other) hangover of the Iran war. That the war in Iran threatens to impact airports around the world is nothing new. In fact he already did it in its first barswhen Tehran launched a series of attacks on the rest of the Persian Gulf countries that they blocked part of the region’s air traffic and hubs as important as the terminals in Doha or Dubai. Over the last few weeks, however, two major threats have been taking shape, especially considering that we are on the verge of summer and the international flow of tourists. has been growing for years: that the war skyrocket the price of flights or (even worse) that forces Cancel services. Checking the grills. Proof of how real (and well-founded) these fears are is that between March and April several airlines have acknowledged that they will have to retouch their grills. On March 17 for example Reuters revealed that SAS, a Scandinavian company, planned to cancel a thousand flights due to the rise in fuel prices. Delta Airlines, Air Canada, Cathay Pacific either Air New Zealand They have taken similar measures, tweaking their operations. Even the Dutch KLM has had no choice but to suspend 160 services scheduled for April. One figure: 20,000 flights. If there is a company that has shown how critical the situation is, it is the German Lufthansa, one of the largest airlines of the world. Financial Times (FT) has advanced that the company will cancel around 20,000 flights between May and October to save fuel, which represents one of the biggest cuts in the sector to adapt to the war in Iran. To be more precise, the German company will eliminate 120 daily flights starting next week and will dispense with those routes departing from Munich and Frankfurt that are not profitable. Trimming will be applied well into the fall. “The price has doubled”. “In total, about 20,000 short-haul flights will be eliminated from the program through October, equivalent to approximately 40,000 metric tons of jet fuel, the price of which has doubled since the outbreak of the conflict with Iran,” explains the company, which has confirmed the cancellations coinciding with a summit of the EU focused on war. Click on the image to go to the tweet. Fuel for six weeks. Lufthansa’s decision is much better understood if one takes into account the latest wake up call of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which a few days ago warned that the jet fuel reserves that Europe manages guarantee operations only in the short term. The notice came from the mouth of the organization’s executive director, Fatih Birol, who took advantage an interview with the Associated Press to warn of the coming panorama. “We are in a critical situation and this will have serious consequences for the global economy. The longer this continues, the worse it will be for economic growth and inflation around the world. Some countries may have more energy than others, but none, absolutely none, is immune to the crisis,” Birol reflected. before stopping at the specific case of Europe and the aeronautical sector: “We have perhaps six weeks of jet fuel. Is it the only warning sign? No. Apart from Birol or the trickle of cancellations announced by airlines such as KLM or Lufthansa, there are other indicators that reveal the extent to which the sector views its jet supply with concern. The EU is already being considered impose a mandatory fuel distribution, in an effort reminiscent of that deployed during the pandemic. Not only that. In Brussels it is already spoken to look for alternative supply sources, such as jet fuel produced in the US, or the release of strategic reserves. Click on the image to go to the tweet. Tickets 24% more expensive. In the United Kingdom, airlines have asked also to the authorities to relax noise regulations or reduce taxes on flights to address supply shortages. It makes sense considering how the war is impacting prices. The BBC has disclosed a study by the consulting firm Teneo that estimates that the conflict is already being felt in air fares: on average, it estimates that the cheapest tickets are 24% more expensive than a year ago, which is explained both by the price of fuel and the route diversions caused by the war. A percentage: 40%. If the war in Iran has served anything, it is to understand (remember, rather) the strategic role that the Strait of Hormuz plays in global supply chains. Its waters not only circulate the fifth part of the world’s oil and LNG, as well urea moves for fertilizer, helium for technology industry…and (exactly!) good part of aircraft fuel. It is estimated that more than 20% of the jet fuel transported by sea last year was channeled through the strait. If we talk about Europe, that percentage is even bigger. The war has not only hit that traffic, strangled by the closure of Hormuz, it has also paralyzed supplies from Kuwait, heavy weight of the sector, and has led other countries to apply protectionist policies. For example, China it did not take long to prohibit exports of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. As if all of the above were not enough, kerosene itself and its nature complicate the picture: Fuel cannot be stored for long without degrading, making their supply chains more sensitive to disruptions like those caused by war. Are these all warning signs? No. With summer just around the corner and a million-dollar … Read more

one where there are mines, bodyguards, an alliance with Iran… and no sign of the US

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In the late 1980s, during the Iran-Iraq War, the American frigate USS Samuel B. Roberts hit a mine in the Persian Gulf and nearly sank, forcing its crew to fight for hours to keep it afloat in one of the United States Navy’s most memorable emergency operations. The episode left a clear lesson that still applies today: in certain areas, an invisible threat can paralyze entire routes and change the balance of power without the need for a single shot. The European plan. He had exclusive the wall street journal that Europe has begun to design its own strategy to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical points in global energy trade, after weeks of war and blockade. The idea is not to intervene during the conflict, but prepare a subsequent operation that allows maritime traffic to be reactivated with safety guarantees. To this end, a broad coalition of countries willing to provide naval means and coordination is being put together, with the aim of restoring confidence to shipping companies and insurers. There is no doubt, the approach reflects a clear priority: stabilize the flow of trade without getting caught in a direct military escalation. Mission without Washington. The most striking element of the plan is the intention to exclude the United States of the operation, something unusual in this type of international deployments. The European proposal seeks to rely only on non-belligerent countries, which means leaving out the actors directly involved in the war and reducing the perception of confrontation. This decision is not only technical, but deeply politicalsince it responds to recent tensions between Washington and several European capitals. At the same time, generates internal doubts on whether a mission without American backing will have sufficient weight or deterrent capacity. Mines, escorts and a delicate balance with Iran. The core of the plan goes through three clear phases: first, unblock the exit of the trapped ships and then clear any possible mines deployed in the area. Finally, establish a military escort system that guarantees safe passage. In this scheme, Europe plays with a specific advantage, its capacity in demining operationswhere it has more resources than the United States. However, it all depends on a key factor: Iran’s acceptance, since any operation will require coordination with the coastal countries to avoid incidents. This turns the mission into a diplomatic balancing act as important as the military deployment. Skepticism. Although specific truces and temporary openings of the strait have been announced, the consensus among experts is that the situation far from stable. The presence of possible mines, episodes of shooting at ships and political uncertainty keep traffic paralyzed and insurance costs skyrocket. Hundreds of ships they are still blockedand companies in the sector are not willing to return without solid guarantees. In this context, European prudence responds to a complex reality: Opening the strait is not only a political decision, but a long and risky technical operation. Europe wants to act, but in its own way. The plan also reflects a desire for autonomy strategic, with France and the United Kingdom at the forefront, leading an initiative that seeks to demonstrate their own capacity in maritime security. The participation of countries like Germany or Italy It points to a larger scale operation, although conditioned by legal frameworks and parliamentary decisions. Still, they persist internal differences about the role the United States should play and about the right time to intervene. In other words, Europe thus tries to project unity while managing its own divisions. The background: uneasy alliance. In practice, the mission design involves a rather obvious paradox, because to guarantee the security of the strait, Europe will need to coordinate, directly or indirectly, with Iranthe same actor who has contributed to blocking it. In other words, the approach reveals to what extent the priority is to avoid a new escalation and rebuild a minimum of operational confidence in the area. At the same time, of course, it suggests a change in “nuclear” focus regarding Washingtonbetting on a more negotiated and less coercive route. A global balance. If you like, what is at stake is not only the expected reopening of the maritime route sooner or later, but rear stability of an artery through which an essential part of the world’s energy circulates. From that perspective, the way in which Europe manages this crisis will mark its role on the international stage, as well as its relationship with the United States and with regional powers. In an environment of tense alliances and divergent decisions, the european plan For Hormuz, it is emerging as a very risky bet that combines military capacity, diplomacy and political calculation in a balance already in itself. extremely fragile. Image | US NAVY In Xataka | From printing drones to looking at lasers, 300 reports have revealed that Iran’s battle manual has one name: Ukraine In Xataka | While everyone was looking at the Middle East, North Korea has had time to do what Iran has not been able to: go nuclear.

The rarest and rarest feline on the planet has found the nail in the coffin that was missing: the war in Iran

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He asian cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus) is one of the rarest and most endangered subspecies of big cats on the planet. There are only 27 individuals left at large, all of them are identified one by one and all of them live in Iran, as explains Bagher Nezaminational director of Asiatic Cheetah Conservation Project. There is no other known population anywhere else on the planet. In serious danger of extinction, what was already a critical situation has become an emergency since the attacks by the United States and Israel in Iran began in February 2026: the war has paralyzed the only monitoring system that kept this subspecies under control. What is happening with the Asian cheetah. As account the environmental science and conservation news platform Mongabay, just nine days after forest guards filmed a female with five cubs in the province of North Khorasan, the armed conflict began. Since then, access to the reserves where these animals live has been drastically restricted. The risk is not so much that a bomb falls on a reserve, but rather the lack of vigilance. The field vehicles used by field scientists and park rangers to guard the small population of Asiatic cheetahs can be mistaken for military targets in their scattered habitat (especially in the desert), so many of Iran’s environmental NGOs have stopped their activity. The country also suffers an internet blackout. This means that monitoring, field studies and field use are no longer operational. The species. The Asian cheetah diverged from African populations between 32,000 and 67,000 years ago. It is not an African cheetah implanted in Asia, but rather it has its own evolutionary lineage: it is smaller and has lighter fur than the African one and is adapted to arid areas and mountainous terrain. In fact, its monitoring is more complex not only because there are few of them, but because it lives in inhospitable areas. In any case, both are true Ferraris: they can exceed speeds of 100 km/h in short races. The IUCN has it classified on the Critically Endangered conservation scale since 1996, the highest alert before extinction in the wild. From an ecological perspective, it serves as a specialized predator on medium-sized ungulates—mainly gazelles—in the desert ecosystems of central Iran. Their disappearance could not be compensated by introducing African cheetahs: the genetic, physiological and behavioral divergence between both groups is too great and hybridization proposals do not have scientific support as a viable short-term solution. Why is it important. Because it is not a rare subspecies of a known felid, but rather it has a genetically differentiated lineage and is native to Asia. It has more than 30,000 years of history independent of African populations and its disappearance is not compensated by introducing African cheetahs. Furthermore, it fulfills its function there: it is a specialized predator on medium-sized ungulates in the arid ecosystems of central Iran, thus maintaining the balance of gazelle populations. In short: it has its place in the food chain of the desert ecosystem in the interior of the country. The situation of the Asian cheetah is also a direct indicator of the state of biodiversity conservation at war, as pointed out this article in People and Nature: its consequences are suffered decades after the conflict and sometimes, they are simply irreversible. Iran is home to exceptional biological diversity: Persian leopard, brown bear (Ursus arctos), Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), gray wolf (Canis lupus), among others. The collapse of the cheetah conservation system irremediably affects the rest. Context. Since 1959, the Asiatic cheetah has had legal protection in Iran. In the following decades its population was stabilized, but the Revolution of 1979 and the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s they were wasted years: Lax law enforcement wreaked havoc in the form of zero patrolling, destruction and fragmentation of their habitat, uncontrolled hunting, and decline in prey. In January 2022, Hassan Akbari, deputy minister of natural environment and biodiversity at Iran’s Department of Environment, declared that the Asiatic cheetah population had plummeted to just 12, down from an estimated 100 in 2010. In August 2025, the Tehran Times reported that only 20 copies remained. Monitoring them is very complicated per sebut there are also circumstances that work against it. For example, the controversial use of camera traps: in 2018 several people from Persian Wildlife Heritage Foundation accused of using camera traps for espionage. One person died in prison and the rest were pardoned in 2024. This case paralyzed international collaboration for years. In addition, Western sanctions have also systematically prevented the arrival of financing, essential for adequate monitoring. Asiatic cheetah dies. The main cause of death for Asian cheetahs is not poaching or predators, but the road. More than 52% of documented deaths They are due to accidents on roads that cross or border key habitats and cheetahs cross them without fear and repeatedly following their prey, such as Abbasabad-Mashhad and Mehriz-Anar. There are a couple of especially notorious cases of females run over, pregnant or with their young, in recent years: Meyami and Helia. Since the beginning of the conflict, these roads now also transport military material and people for evacuation, which increases traffic. With 27 individuals registered, there is no longer room for errors or unsupervised times: genetic analysis published in Conservation Genetics details that genetic diversity is critically low and inbreeding poses an additional risk to the viability of the subspecies. What can be done. Wild Tomorrow analyzes this problem in detail, advising to ignore social media campaigns that call for “emergency evacuations” without rigor: moving big wild cats across militarized borders is medically risky and informal channels can prove to be a route for illegal trafficking. Furthermore, we have already seen that proposing clandestine communications can expose those who protect the cheetah to accusations of espionage. What does have a real effect is supporting the Iranian Cheetah Society, the organization with the greatest field knowledge of this population. Likewise, at the international level there are organizations with real capacity … Read more

While everyone was looking at the Middle East, North Korea has had time to do what Iran has not been able to: go nuclear.

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It happened a few years ago, when in the midst of increasing tensions with North Korea, the Japanese government came to send alerts to millions of mobile phones through the J-Alert system when it detected the overflight of a missile, causing unusual scenes in which trains stopped and citizens took refuge in stations without knowing exactly what was happening. That reaction, almost automatic and difficult to imagine in peacetime, left a clear image of the extent to which certain global balances can be strained without warning. The regime that did not fall. I told a few days ago in an extensive special report the wall street journal the story of the surprising source of North Korea’s enduring power, a nation that has survived the demise of the Soviet Union and the transformation of China because it ceased to be just a communist state and became something more resilient: a closed ideological structurehereditary and almost religious. There it is impossible not to start with the Kim dynasty that managed to consolidate a system in which power is not only exercised, but also believed, internalized and transmitted as a faith. That model, built from Kim Il Sung and perfected by his successors, has made it possible to maintain extraordinary internal cohesion even in conditions of extreme isolation. While other regimes eroded as they opened up to the world or collapsed under external pressure, Pyongyang consolidated a base of control much deeperdifficult to dismantle from the outside. From ideology to state religion. I remembered the Journal that the core of that system is not only political, but also symbolic and emotional, with elements that clearly recall an organized religion. The Juche ideology It progressively replaced classical Marxism, incorporating rituals, symbols and an almost messianic narrative around the leader. The omnipresence of Kim Il Sung, his conversion in “eternal president” and dynastic continuity have generated a structure of loyalty that goes beyond political obedience. This model, influenced indirectly through Christianity that once dominated Pyongyang, allowed the construction of a system where loyalty to the leader is perceived as an absolute truth, something that largely explains its stability and capacity for resistance. The silent military leap. On that internal basis, North Korea has developed a pretty clear strategy: to arm oneself militarily until one becomes practically untouchablealthough no one knows exactly how much of it is true. Today it is recognized that it has intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reach US territory and has reinforced its arsenal with increasingly sophisticated systems. Not only that. The recent tests, just a few days ago from their new destroyer, with high-precision cruise and anti-ship missiles, they clearly show that it is no longer just a matter of accumulating weapons, but of integrating them into a modern military architecture, with rapid response capacity and systems resistant to interference. In fact, accelerated construction of new warships It aims at a transition from isolated platforms towards a structured naval force, which expands its projection capacity and complicates any containment scenario. Nuclear expansion in full noise. I told it this week Guardian through internal analyzes held by the UN nuclear watchdog. While much of the international attention was focused on the conflicts in the Middle EastNorth Korea has been taking advantage of this context to advance its nuclear program without restraint. As? Activity at key facilities such as Yongbyon has intensifiedwith new reactors, reprocessing plants and possible undeclared facilities to enrich uranium. The agency’s estimates point to dozens of warheads already operational and a growing capacity to produce enough material to between ten and twenty weapons additional each year. In other words, this rhythm, sustained over time, indicates that the objective is not only basic deterrence, but rather reaching a volume that guarantees the survival of the regime in the face of any attempt at forced change. The power that Iran has not consolidated. The key difference here is that North Korea has achieved what other countries in similar situations have achieved (call it Iran) have not been able to: convert their nuclear program into a fully integrated tool in their survival strategy. While other powers under international pressure have seen limited or braked its development, Pyongyang has moved closer to a point of no returnone where its capacity is broad enough to deter any intervention. In this context, it is possible that the real change is no longer just quantitative, but strategic: because when it reaches a surplus of nuclear capacity, the risk will cease to be solely regional and will have global implications, opening the door, at the very least, to new proliferation dynamics. Image | DPRK In Xataka | The US has activated plan B before Iran knocks down its last radar: disarm South Korea against the North’s new nuclear “toy” In Xataka | If the question is what has North Korea achieved in the last four years, the answer is simple: an unimaginable arsenal

The war machine that the US destroyed, Iran has put it back on its feet

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During the Vietnam War, American pilots bombed for days a network of tunnels near Cu Chi convinced that they had completely rendered it useless. When the troops advanced on the ground, they discovered that not only was it still operational, but the combatants they had reappeared from hidden exits a few meters from their positions. The scene left a brutal lesson: destroying from the air does not always mean eliminating what is below. A start of war that changes everything. The first hours of the conflict in Iran set the tone of everything that would come later: an intensity of fire rarely seen, with hundreds of missiles and almost a thousand drones launched in just two days, forcing the defensive systems to operate at the limit from the first moment. That volume not only showed the scale of the Iranian arsenal, but also the type of war that was being waged, one in which saturation was almost as important as precision. From that starting point, the expectation was clear for all the actors: if that rhythm was sustained, the key was not going to be who hit the hardest, because that actor had a name from the beginning, but who last longer. The illusion of total destruction. Because the United States and Israel responded in the first 48 hours of war with a massive campaign of bombings that sought to disable the Iranian military infrastructure, attacking thousands of targets and sealing access to underground bases to leave the launchers trapped. For weeks, the official message It was forceful.: The missile program had been devastated and the country’s response capacity was practically nullified. However, even at that time doubts arose from within the US apparatus itself, which warned that a significant part of these systems had not been destroyed, but simply blocked or temporarily inaccessible. Iranian efforts underway at a missile base in Tabriz on April 10 The mountains as a shield and strategy. It we count at the time. The real differentiating element was not in the missiles, but in where they were stored. Iran has spent decades building a network of underground facilities in mountainous environments, many of them excavated in granitic rock capable of resisting extremely powerful attacks. These “missile cities” not only store weapons, but also integrate complete logistics systemswith tunnels, launch points and escape routes designed to minimize exposure. It is an architecture designed for survive the first blowassume damage and keep the operational core intact, in a logic that prioritizes resilience over invulnerability. A loader over debris blocking an entrance to a missile base near Khomeyn, April 10 Dig, reactivate and launch again. Satellite images now have confirmed that, as soon as a ceasefire window opened, heavy machinery went into action to remove debris and reopen accesses blocked by bombings. As? The Telegraph said Through satellite survey that dozens of excavators, trucks and engineering equipment were deployed at key points to clear sealed entrances and regain access to buried launchers. Again, what is relevant here is not just that it is being done, but the speed: in a matter of days (and even in just 48 hours in some cases) those facilities have become operational again, suggesting that much of the military capacity was not destroyed, but simply paused. Designed to resist. All of this, furthermore, fits with a very specific doctrine: assume that the enemy will have air superiority and design the system to survive it. Unlike a conventional war, where losing control of the air usually implies the progressive destruction of infrastructure, here the logic is different and focuses on protect assets critical underground, absorb the first attack and recover capacity combat as soon as possible. This approach turns conflict into a race of attrition, where each cycle of attack and reconstruction erodes both the attacker and the defender. The real problem. If you like, the direct consequence of this dynamic is that the apparent initial success of Washington (and Israel) has lost weight in the face of the recovery capacity Iranian. Because, although the attacks have been massive and technically effective, the speed with which Tehran is restoring its bases raises an uncomfortable scene for their adversaries: every pause, negotiation or ceasefire in the fighting becomes an opportunity to rearm again or, literally, dust off the bunkers In that context, the question stops being whether an infrastructure can be destroyed and becomes how many times it can function again before the other side is left behind. without resources or without political margin to continue. Image | Airbus In Xataka | If the question is where is the US nuclear aircraft carrier, the answer is uncomfortable: hidden so that it does not sink In Xataka | We sensed that Iran bombed the US military bases with help: some coordinates have revealed its name, and it is Made in China

We sensed that Iran bombed US military bases with help. Some coordinates have revealed its name, and it is Made in China

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During the Gulf War, a group of Iraqi soldiers were located in the middle of the desert not by ground patrols, but by images taken from satellites that detected recent vehicle tracks in the sand. That episode marked one of the first moments in which looking from space began to be so decisive how to shoot from the ground. A satellite as an invisible weapon. A series of leaked documents held by the Financial Times have revealed that Iran not only had missiles and drones to attack US bases, but also a much quieter and decisive tool: an observation satellite capable of provide precise coordinates before and after each blow. The system, known like TEE-01Bwas acquired by the Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in late 2024, after its launch from China, and allowed Iranian commanders to monitor key installations throughout the region, identify targets with a level of detail unprecedented for the country and evaluate the impact of their attacks in almost real time. In other words, what seemed like a direct fire war actually hid a previous layer of orbital intelligence which multiplied the effectiveness of each operation. A secret agreement. The middle counted in its exclusive that behind this capacity is a little visible but strategic agreement with Chinese actors, one that not only facilitated access to the satellite already in orbit, but also to the infrastructure necessary to operate it from any point in the world. This model, based on the “in orbit” transfer and in networks of globally distributed ground stations (a little-known export model by which spacecraft launched in China are transferred to customers abroad once they reach orbit), allowed Iran to overcome one of its main weaknesses: the vulnerability of its own facilities to attack. By outsourcing control and data flow, Tehran turned a commercial asset on a military tool difficult to neutralize. Satellite image of the Prince Sultan Air Base From limited precision to a qualitative leap. The technical impact of this jump is key to understanding its importance. Compared to its previous systems, incapable of clearly identifying complex targets, the new satellite offered high resolution images (the TEE-01B is capable of capturing images with a resolution of approximately half a meter) that allowed aircraft, vehicles and changes in military infrastructure to be distinguished. This transformed Iranian attack planning from general estimates to data-driven decisions, and consolidated a combination of human intelligence, satellite imagery, and external support that significantly elevated Iran’s operational capabilities. Attack on the bases. Among the records they obtained showed that the satellite captured images from Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on March 13, 14 and 15. On March 14, Donald Trump confirmed that American planes at the base had been hit. Five US Air Force refueling aircraft were damaged. The satellite also carried out surveillance of the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan and from locations near the naval base of the Fifth Fleet of the United States in Manama, Bahrain, and the airport in Erbil, Iraq, around the date of the attacks claimed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard against facilities in those areas. Launch of TEE-01B And more bases. Other areas monitored by the satellite included Camp Buehring and Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, the US military base Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti and Duqm International Airport in Oman. Also included in the Persian Gulf civil infrastructure monitored was the Khor Fakkan container port and the Qidfa desalination and power plant in the United Arab Emirates, as well as the Alba plant in Bahrain, one of the largest aluminum smelters in the world. Decades of relationship that explain the present. In parallel to FT reportthe New York Times published this morning one piece where he explains that these types of advances are not an isolated event, but rather the result of a relationship built over decades between Iran and China in the military and technological field. Since the 1980s, when Beijing supplied weapons directly, to recent decades, when it has opted for more discreet support based on components, dual technology and knowledge transfer, cooperation has evolved. to adapt to sanctions and regional balances. In that process, China has gone from selling weapons to facilitating capabilities that allow Iran to develop and improve its own without openly exposing itself. Strategic ambiguity as a tool. One of the most relevant elements of this relationship has been its ambiguous characterwhere the border between civil and military is constantly blurred. Commercial companies, seemingly neutral technologies and systems designed for civilian uses end up being integrated into military structures, offering China a way to influence without assuming directly the political cost of explicit support. This approach allows for simultaneous relations with Iran’s regional rivals while strengthening its strategic capabilities. A new type of war. In short, the end result is a scenario in which the battlefield no longer begins on land, but miles away from herin orbit, where information has become the most decisive factor and actor. The combination of satellites, global networks and discreet agreements It redefines that way of waging war, allowing actors with fewer resources to compensate for their limitations through access to advanced technology. In that context, the history of the TEE-01B It is not just that of a satellite, but how a network of cooperation and decades of technological evolution can completely transform the way an attack is planned and executed. Image | US Navy, Planet Labs In Xataka | The US already has the first response to its blockade of Hormuz: a boomerang of unpredictable consequences called China In Xataka | The US has closed all exits from the Strait of Hormuz. And now Iran can put into practice what it has been preparing for 25 years

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