Hormuz

We have been fearing the Apocalypse for 100 days due to the closure of Hormuz. The blow is going to be given to us by a heat wave in China

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At the end of February, the clocks in the financial markets seemed to stop. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz was not a simple geopolitical skirmish; It meant amputating, from one day to the next, the main energy artery of the planet. Classical economics manuals dictated that the abrupt disappearance of 20% of the world’s crude oil would trigger industrial paralysis, widespread shortages and an imminent recession. However, more than one hundred days after the start of the blockade, Western economies are still standing and the barrel of crude oil, far from reaching the catastrophic 200 dollars that some investment funds even predicted, has been contained below the $100 barrier. We have survived what, on paper, is the greatest threat to energy security in history. The question that now resonates in the European chancelleries is unanimous: how have we achieved it and, above all, how long will the truce last? The architecture of an unexpected rescue The fact that the world has not collapsed is due to a complex network of counterweights that have absorbed the blow. The first revealing data it is provided by the agency Reuters: The production of OPEC countries has fallen this May to its lowest level since 2000 (16.13 million barrels per day) as a direct consequence of the siege of Iran. Despite this massive hole in supply, global supply has been reorganized in record time. The analyst Javier Blas unfolds in his column of Bloomberg the keys to this logistical miracle. The main lifeline, paradoxically, has arrived from Beijing. China has plunged its oil imports by ship to decade lows (nearly 40% less than last year’s average). According to Blas, this unexpected destruction of Asian demand has acted as a huge escape valve: “If Beijing were buying the same amount of oil as in the past, global inflation would be out of control.” Added to Chinese containment is a tectonic shift in energy hegemony. As documented Reutersthe United States has taken advantage of the chaos to become the largest oil exporter in the world, overtaking Russia and Saudi Arabia by shipping nearly 10.5 million barrels per day in May. Furthermore, the Gulf countries have not sat idly by. The producers They are using a network of pipelines less known through Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates that circumvent the Hormuz bottleneck, keeping some five million barrels a day alive, in addition to maintaining “hot” extraction infrastructures for an eventual rapid restart. The silent blow The fact that there are no kilometer-long lines at service stations has generated a false sense of immunity. Hormuz’s economic blow is landing, but it is doing so through the financial system. The war conflict has blown up the roadmap by Christine Lagarde and the European Central Bank (ECB), since the sustained rise in fuel prices has caused eurozone inflation to rise to 3.2% in May. Given the fear that this extra cost will permanently spread to the shopping basket, the ECB has been forced to resume raising interest rates this June, placing them at 2.25%. The true price of the Iran war is already being paid by European households and companies through more expensive mortgages and restricted credit. And the scenario continues to be a powder keg: the extreme volatility of the markets after the latest crossed attacks between the United States and Iran, which have kept Brent crude stressed above $95. The Asian thermometer: the great threat to Spain While the global macroeconomy deals with interest rates, at the local level a perfect storm is brewing for the Spanish consumer in the coming months. And the trigger will not be military, but climate. According to the forecasts of the consulting firm Tempos Energía, collected by Europa Pressthe price of electricity in Spain this summer will not depend on what happens in the Strait of Hormuz, but on the temperatures in Asia. Until now, Europe has been importing American liquefied natural gas (LNG) without much competition because China was not demanding it. However, the general director of Tempos Energía, Antonio Aceituno, warns of an imminent reversal: “When the heat arrives and the thermometer soars in Shanghai, American freighters will be divided between demand from Asia and Europe.” If the Asian market absorbs the supply to feed its air conditioning networks, Europe will be left without cheap alternatives to cover its own summer demand peaks, and with tanks at less than half capacity. The consulting firm’s forecast for Spain is severe: if China breaks into the purchasing market, the electricity bill for July and August could rise to the range of 88 to 95 euros per megawatt hour. This represents an increase of up to 40%, which “would be equivalent to paying double what was paid in 2019.” A truce with an expiration date We have managed to avoid the precipice thanks to the inertia of pre-war inventories, a historic deployment of emergency reserves and the forced reconfiguration of the global market. If diplomacy triumphs, Blas explains how the intact infrastructure of the Gulf would allow 50% of production to be recovered in a matter of days. However, trusting economic stability to an imminent diplomatic agreement is a dangerous game. Emergency reserves are not infinite and the capacity to cushion shocks has a limit. The world has shown astonishing resilience in surviving without its main oil route, but the armor is cracking. If the situation continues and summer demand tightens, the apocalypse that we avoided in spring could arrive in the form of unaffordable bills and an induced recession. The Hormuz bill, sooner or later, will have to be paid. Image | Unsplash 1 and 2 Xataka | Ukraine turned drones into hunters. A helicopter shot down in Hormuz has transformed them into a Spielberg film

Ukraine turned drones into hunters. A helicopter shot down in Hormuz has transformed them into a Spielberg film

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In April 1944, a small Sikorsky YR-4 helicopter went behind Japanese lines in Burma to rescue four soldiers isolated. That operation is considered the first military combat rescue carried out by a helicopter and opened a new era in the recovery of personnel under enemy fire. More than 80 years later, another innovation has just taken an equally transcendent step. Apache shot down at the most delicate moment. The fragile truce between the United States and Iran was brought to the brink of collapse when a US AH-64 Apache attack helicopter fell into nearby waters to the Strait of Hormuz during a patrol mission. Trump claimed that the aircraft had been shot down by Iran and promised a military responsewhile different American sources suggested that the impact would have been caused by an Iranian drone, possibly a Shahed. Although it remains completely unclear whether the attack was deliberate or accidental, the incident had a huge symbolic load because it occurred in one of the most sensitive points on the planet, through which a fifth of the world’s oil transits and where Washington and Iran have been facing each other for months in a war of attrition marked by naval blockades, air attacks and constant episodes of tension. Ah64 The immediate response. The political reaction was almost as rapid as the incident itself. trump publicly declared that the United States had to respond to the shootdown and a few hours later the US Central Command announced retaliatory attacks against Iranian targets. Although operations seemed to remain within from a limited framework to avoid a new generalized escalation, the episode demonstrated the extent to which the ceasefire remained extremely fragile. The statements of Iranian officialscombining references to diplomacy with veiled warnings, made clear that both sides were trying to avoid outright war while continuing to send messages of strength to each other on the ground. The real event. However, the most relevant thing about the entire sequence was not the fall of the Apache or the subsequent retaliation. The truly revolutionary thing happened when the two surviving crew members were rescued. For decades, combat search and rescue operations have depended on helicopters, specialized aircraft and human teams that had to enter extremely dangerous areas to recover downed pilots. In Ukraine we have seen drones attacking, watching, taking prisoners, guiding artillerytransporting supplies and even intercepting other dronesbut the conflict between the United States and Iran has just shown something different: for the first time an autonomous naval drone He recovered two soldiers in the water and brought them to safety. It is an advance that until very recently seemed like something out of a science fiction movie and that marks a conceptual leap as important as the one represented by the arrival of the first combat drones. The Corsair and the birth of a new mission. They remembered the TWZ analysts that the protagonist of this operation was the corsairan unmanned vessel developed by the Saronic company and operated by Task Force 59 of the US Navy. Measuring 7 meters in length, capable of sailing more than 1,800 kilometers and with a high level of autonomy, the system located the two pilots, picked them up at sea and moved them to a safe area where they were later evacuated by helicopter. What is really new is that the Corsair was not initially conceived for rescues, but for maritime surveillancerecognition and tracking of vessels. The incident has shown that these systems can take on much more complex and delicate tasks, becoming a kind of first step in rescue capable of penetrating areas that are too dangerous for manned platforms. Lesson learned after years of high-risk rescues. The US military has been concerned for years about the vulnerability of its search and rescue units. Previous operations, such as pilot recovery shot down inside Iran or rescue missions in heavily defended scenarios, forced helicopters, planes and specialized personnel to be exposed to enormous risks. He use of the Corsair offers a completely new alternative. Instead of immediately sending a manned aircraft to an area threatened by missiles, drones or anti-aircraft defenses, an autonomous vehicle can arrive first, secure survivors and transport them to a point where other means operate more safely. It is a solution that reduces human risks and greatly expands the possibilities of action in future high-intensity conflicts. From the Strait of Hormuz to the Pacific. The implications go far beyond the Gulf of Oman. The US Navy already imagines networks of autonomous vessels distributed over entire regionsespecially in the Pacific, capable of monitoring sea routes, detecting threats, supporting military operations and, if necessary, rescuing downed or shipwrecked pilots. The concept is reminiscent of a network of mobile emergency stations spread over huge ocean areas. The Apache experience shows that these systems are no longer simple floating sensors or surveillance platforms, but rather operational actors capable of intervening directly in critical situations. The next silent revolution. The Ukrainian war turned drones in absolute protagonists of the modern battlefield and transformed the way we understand ground combat. However, the Apache episode points towards a new evolution. The great advance no longer consists only of using drones to destroy targets, but in trusting them with missions traditionally reserved for human beings. The rescue of the two American pilots represents the first known example of a personnel recovery executed by an autonomous vessel in a real military environment. It may seem like a minor detail compared to missiles, airstrikes or strategic retaliation, but it will probably be remembered as one of those discrete moments that herald a much more profound transformation: the moment when drones stopped being just weapons or hunters and also became rescuers. Image | US Navy In Xataka | The US had a ship with 2,000 marines ready to invade Iran. Now he has sent it right to the place where China worries the most In Xataka | In Lebanon, the war is becoming difficult to explain: drones to take over a 1,000-year-old … Read more

In 1967 a war closed the Suez Canal for eight years. Half a century later, the Strait of Hormuz looks into the same abyss

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When war broke out between Egypt and Israel in 1967, fifteen commercial ships were trapped in the Suez Canal. The captains dropped anchor assuming they would only have to wait a few days for the fighting to end. They were right about the duration of hostilities: it was the Six Day War. However, It took eight years for the canal to reopen. When the ships were finally able to set sail in 1975, only two were still seaworthy. The rest had rusted so much under the desert sun that They went down in history as the “Yellow Fleet”. Almost sixty years later, history rhymes in the Persian Gulf. Ninety days after the war between the United States, Israel and Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February, the most important maritime passage in the world remains closed. Dozens of oil tankers wait at anchor, waiting for a diplomatic agreement that always seems imminent but never arrives. The optimism trap on Wall Street The analyst Javier Blas, in your column for Bloombergexposes the dangerous complacency with which the world is facing this closure. The financial industry operates under an adapted version of Stein’s Law: “The Strait cannot be closed forever because it would cause too much economic damage; therefore, it will reopen soon.” The problem with this logic is that the economy has not yet inflicted the pain necessary to force peace. As Blas points out: For Washington: The war is proving politically cheap. The US economy is riding with quarterly growth of more than 4% and the S&P 500 index is close to historical highs, having risen almost 10% since the start of the conflict. For Tehran: Even as the currency plummets and inflation chokes the population, the Iranian regime has demonstrated for decades an almost inexhaustible capacity to absorb economic punishment when it considers it faces an existential threat. While the mediators seek an agreement in Islamabadinertia maintains the illusion of normality. The market has absorbed the disappearance of about 20 million barrels per day thanks to accumulated inventories and massive releases of strategic reserves. Qero the global tank is emptying. June: The end of logistics inertia If we do not see shortages on the streets it is due to pure physics of transportation: a supertanker moves at the speed of a bicycle. The fuel that the West consumed in the spring left the Gulf before the first missile fell. However, the data They already show the cracks in the system. Global demand fell by 5 million barrels per day in April, the largest consumption destruction since the COVID-19 pandemic. And the blow is already felt at home: Funcas warns thatIf the conflict continues, Spanish inflation will exceed 4% and growth will fall to 1.8%. In addition, the multimillion-dollar extra cost of fuel for airlines such as Iberia or Vueling directly threatens the waterline of Spanish tourism. The real precipice has a date: June. With the arrival of summer, the peak driving season and the massive use of air conditioning will collide with inventories at multi-year lows. Furthermore, a diplomatic reopening it would not solve the physical problem: Clearing the mile-wide Hormuz safe lane would require months of complex naval operations. However, the impact of this crisis goes far beyond the gas pump. As the physical shortage of crude oil becomes undeniable, the most serious repercussions are brewing in the bowels of the global financial system: The fracture of the petrodollar: The unwritten agreement of 1974, which guaranteed security in the Gulf in exchange for crude oil being sold in dollars and reinvested in US debt, is breaking down. Countries like India They are selling their US Treasury bonds to obtain liquidity and pay for much more expensive oil. The bond market: The persistence of energy inflation has skyrocketed sovereign bond yields. 30-year Treasury bonds in the US exceeded 5.15%. The cost of real life: If government bonds yield above 5%, 30-year mortgages are inexorably approaching 7%. This translates into more expensive loans, lower business investment and a paralysis of the real estate market. As several analysts warn, undoing the economic damage from Hormuz could require an induced recession to curb borrowing costs. The bypass of the desert While the world waits, some actors have already given up on Hormuz. United Arab Emirates has accelerated urgently the construction of a gigantic pipeline that bypasses the strait, with the goal of exporting 3.5 million barrels a day directly to the Gulf of Oman by 2027. It is “prudent planning for the worst scenario,” and a clear sign that Abu Dhabi believes the waterway could remain threatened for years. Half a century ago, no one imagined that 15 ships would spend a decade rotting in the sun in Suez for a war that lasted less than a week. Today, the world assumes that the Hormuz crisis will be a temporary blip. But as the days go by, the shock absorbers wear out and the financial markets creak. The oil is simply still waiting in the sea. Image | Photo by Jens Rademacher on Unsplash Xataka | The war in the East has reached an unexpected agreement: one where the US does not discuss Iran’s missiles, bombs or uranium

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz chokes the Chinese economy. Its only energy solution is a historic pact with Putin

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“一日不见，如隔三秋” (A day without seeing you is like three autumns). Using the Russian translation of this ancient Chinese proverb, President Vladimir Putin wanted to begin his meeting with Xi Jinping. The gesture of extreme closeness was not accidental. Tiananmen Square was dressed up with a 21-gun salute, a military band and dozens of children waving flags to welcome the Russian president. On the face of it, Beijing displayed the same diplomatic theatrics and pageantry it had offered to US President Donald Trump just days earlier, as detailed Bloomberg. However, the background was diametrically opposite: if with Trump the red carpet sought to appease and choreograph stability with a volatile rival, with Putin the authority and support for a cornered partner was staged. The Chinese leader addressed his counterpart as an “old friend,” a term unusually reserved in the Party bureaucracy for highly regarded foreigners. The visit, which marks the 25th anniversary of the signing of the friendship treaty between both countries and represents Putin’s 25th trip to China, represents a vital alliance at the most critical moment of the decade. Behind the walks through the imperial gardens and the closed-door meetings, there is a suffocating urgency. The global board is burning due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz derived from the war between the United States and Iran, a blockade that has cut off Asia’s energy arteries and has turned this summit into a geopolitical lifeline. The Siberian lifeguard. The response to the crisis has a clear name on the agenda of both leaders: the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline. According to the estimatesOnce completed, this colossal 2,600-kilometer-long infrastructure will transport up to 50 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas per year from the Russian Arctic fields of Yamal to northern China, passing through Mongolia. Moscow and Beijing have already reached a “general understanding” on the project, encompassing consensus on the layout and construction methods, as stated Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov told journalists and spokesman Dmitri Peskov confirmed. Additionally, both governments have signed a legally binding supply memorandum to boost construction. But all that glitters is not gold. As newspapers such as he Financial Times and CNBCthe agreement has been stumbling over the same rock for years: the price, financing and delivery schedule. China, aware of its position of strength, demands that the rate for the new gas pipeline be equal to the price of the heavily subsidized Russian domestic market (between $120 and $130 per 1,000 cubic meters), conditions that would drastically reduce the profit margins for the Russian state giant Gazprom. Furthermore, secrecy and caution reign in Beijing: as pointed out Reuterswhen Gazprom announced the memorandum last September, China did not issue any official statement on the matter. And even if the agreement is closed now, Russian salvation will not be immediate; from the research unit of China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) has already has warned that gas projects of this magnitude require at least eight to ten years for their construction. The Hormuz factor: a geopolitical accelerator. If the gas pipeline had been on the drawing board for years, the Third Gulf War has stepped on the accelerator. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a real cataclysm in the Indo-Pacific region. This maritime blockade has suddenly interrupted the arrival of half of China’s oil imports and almost a third of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply. The consequences they have been immediate: The Asian giant has already reported a rebound in inflation and an abrupt weakening of its domestic economic activity during the month of April. Faced with maritime vulnerability, securing a land supply route is vital for Beijing’s survival. As experts in German Welleinstability in the Gulf has triggered China’s desire for a pipelined energy flow that is immune to Western sanctions or American naval blockades. Still, China faces this crisis with homework done. Far from improvising, Beijing took advantage of the previous years to buy heavily sanctioned crude oil from countries such as Russia, Venezuela and Iran. Thanks to this, China today has colossal strategic reserves, also supported by a fleet of Iranian oil tankers that function as a floating warehouse off its coasts. A deeply strained and asymmetrical relationship. Although official statements speak of “mutual respect” and a “limitless” partnership, economic reality depicts a deeply unequal relationship. President Putin himself has declared that Russia and China want to be equal partners, but the gap is evident: the Chinese economy is almost eight times larger and much more technologically advanced. Without China’s money and technology, the very survival of the Russian regime would be in question. The data is devastating. According to him Financial TimesRussia has suffered a 38% year-on-year drop in its energy export revenues. To survive Western isolation, Moscow has turned China into its lifeline. At the end of last year, more than 99% of bilateral trade was settled in rubles and yuan to circumvent the SWIFT system, and Beijing currently supplies 90% of imports of sanctioned Russian technology, including semiconductors, microelectronics and dual-use goods, essential for its war machine. For his part, Xi Jinping carries out a delicate diplomatic balancing act. His meeting with Putin comes just days after his summit with Donald Trump. This synchronicity allows Russia a key tactical move: as reported EuronewsPutin’s trip serves to receive direct information and exchange views with Beijing on recent negotiations with Washington. Simultaneously, China does not hesitate to invoke its “Blocking Rules” to order its domestic refiners to ignore US sanctions and continue buying Iranian crude. But at the same time, as the newspaper highlights Asahi Shimbunthe Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed the purchase of 200 Boeing aircraft just after Trump’s visit, in a clear gesture to stabilize its economic ties with the West. A new world epicenter. The current crisis and the negotiations in Beijing certify an irreversible paradigm shift. The entry into operation of “Power of Siberia 2” is not just a commercial agreement, it is the chronicle of an announced breakup. … Read more

Without state aid, China feared that electric sales would plummet. Until the Hormuz crisis arrived

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It seemed that the market was retreating but, perhaps, what it was doing was taking a breath to come back much stronger. Never before in China have plug-in and electric hybrids, known as “new energy” cars, had so much weight. Last April, a new record was broken that only confirms where the future of its industry lies. Record. 61.4% of the cars sold in China last April they were “new energy” vehicles. This is the category used by the Chinese State to talk about plug-in and electric vehicles. Its market penetration is the highest in the country’s history. The figure is almost 10% higher than last year, despite the fact that sales have fallen. This means that gasoline-powered vehicles have collapsed and that the customer is already beginning to massively accept the plug-in vehicle as the car of the future. a collapse. It is the word they use in CarNewsChina to refer to the drop in sales of internal combustion cars. And, according to data provided by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), the sale of combustion cars has plummeted by 37% compared to the previous year and 33% compared to the month of March. Media like Jiemian They point to a clear cause of this trend: the price of oil. Last April, sales of cars with internal combustion engines were reduced by 530,000 units. The drop is undoubtedly influenced by a rise in the price of gasoline. The State has tried by all means to mitigate the impact on the consumer and the industry. In their market planning, the extra cost at the pump has been cushioned but, as they point out in Reutersgasoline and diesel are close to reaching all-time highs. Thank goodness. In Reuters They assure that China is the country that is best saving the oil crisis due to its diversified purchases but also due to the intensive use of electric cars. According to the Chinese media 36krIn 2024, China was already saving more than 400,000 barrels of oil per day thanks to its electric cars and represented a saving of 12% of its imports of this product. They explain that, although crude oil imports increased in 2025, this was due to an acceleration in the industry but electric cars helped mitigate the impact on purchases. Relief is key given the constant interruptions in regular supply of the countries near Hormuz. And it is that China has Russia as its main supplier but Saudi Arabia follows as second. A powerful track. So far this year, overall car sales in China have declined and especially “new energy” cars have been in the spotlight. Without the support of the State with purchase aidits sales have fallen by 17% but indications are that the oil crisis is helping the market rebound. In April, the drop in these cars was 6.8% while global sales fell 21.5%, both data compared to the same period of the previous year. In the first 10 days of Maysales of these cars have decreased by 13% compared to last year but have grown by 27% compared to the first 10 days of last April. Without state aid, car sales in China have fallen, underscoring the country’s historic problem in encourage family consumption. However, it does make it clear to us that the slowdown between plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles is being less than that of the rest of the technologies despite the fact that the State has stopped pushing. A backup. The movement towards electric vehicles is an endorsement of the policies of the Chinese state. With the economy managed with five-year plans, China has been building a base for more than two decades to be dominant with the Chinese electric car. He attracted knowledge by giving up landhas built a solid foundation in the supply chain and now Their brands already dominate the local marketthe largest in the world. But they have also given a lesson that is beginning to be seen outside their borders: the electric car is a good tool to alleviate the complications of the oil market. On a day-to-day basis, the savings by charging an electric car at low power are very high. If the price of gasoline rises, the savings skyrocket. Beyond China. Aware of this, China has put the turbo into its exports. BYD (which only sells plug-in vehicles) has broken a new shipment record. They are at the perfect time to enter the market with their low ranges but also offering electric cars at very competitive prices. Especially among plug-in hybrids. At the moment, most of the sales of Chinese cars in Europe are low-end cars with combustion engines. This already helps them penetrate the market, gain share and begin to be seen by new potential clients. But, also, its plug-in hybrids do not pay tariffs. This is allowing them to compete on price with Europeans and in countries like Spain, where it is considered the main purchasing value for a large part of the market, it is key. For example, a fact: so far this year, five of the 10 best-selling plug-in hybrid cars in Spain they are Chinese. Photo | INC and BYD In Xataka | An electric car is 54% cheaper to maintain than a combustion car. And it may not compensate because the data has a trick

The Strait of Hormuz has become a death trap. The Arab Emirates’ solution is a pharaonic oil “bypass” through the desert

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The new energy order is not debated in suit and tie summits, but is rising against the clock under the scorching sun of the Arabian Peninsula. Suffocated by the Third Gulf War, the United Arab Emirates has hit the table: it refuses to leave the survival of its trade routes in the hands of chance, war or its neighbors. The strategy is clear: if the strait is a minefield, they will build a rear exit. The news that has shaken the foundations of oil logistics came to light through official channels. According to a statement from the company itself ADNOC (the Emirati state oil company), His Highness Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed has chaired a key meeting in which he has ordered an urgent directive: to accelerate the construction of the new “West-East Pipeline” project. But what infrastructure are we talking about exactly? As energy analyst Javier Blas points outthe key to this movement is that the Emirates is laying out a second oil pipeline expressly designed to turn its back on the Strait of Hormuz. The date marked on the calendar is 2027. When they open the tap, this new infrastructure will double the volume of crude oil that the country takes out to the world through the port of Fujairah (in the Gulf of Oman). In practical figures, this represents a gigantic leap: they will go from the 1.5 million barrels a day that they move right now, to injecting between 3 and 3.5 million. It is not a project improvised in the last week. As analyst Bachar El-Halabi points outwork on this project began quietly in early 2024, long before the war in Iran paralyzed the region. However, the conflict has acted as the definitive “catalyst.” The war did not inspire the pipeline, but it has injected it with urgency. The logistical “antidote” As was discussed in the middle Amwaj Mediathe Iran war has starkly exhibited the tremendous vulnerability of maritime bottlenecks (chokepoints). The near-total shutdown of Hormuz has caused the worst supply disruption in history, removing 12% of the world’s oil from the market. In this context, the West-East pipeline stands as a lifeline. This Emirati infrastructure, added to the gigantic oil pipeline East-West (or Petroline) of 1,200 kilometers that Saudi Arabia has reactivated towards the Red Sea, form a true logistical “antidote.” They are escape routes that neutralize Tehran’s blackmail, allowing crude oil to go out into the world without entering the range of missiles and blockades in the Persian Gulf. They are, in the words of experts, “buying invaluable time” for the West. To understand the privilege of having this infrastructure, just look at the neighboring country: the situation in Iraq exposes the other side of the coin. Lacking alternative outlets to the sea and completely dependent on Hormuz, Iraq has been left without physical space to store its own oil. As a result, Baghdad has been forced to shut down 70% of production in its prolific southern fields and beg the Kurdistan region to let them use an old, patched-up pipeline to Turkey that barely manages to export 250,000 barrels a day. Iraq is a hostage to its own geography; The Emirates, on the other hand, are buying their freedom with steel and engineering. A free (and flooded) market by 2027 All this new logistical muscle takes on its true meaning when it intersects with another historic decision: the Emirates’ slamming of the door on OPEC+. Emirates has formally left the organizationarguing the defense of their “national interest.” After almost six decades, the country has decided that its national interests no longer fit into the cartel’s quotas. The UAE had been accumulating commercial frustration for years because OPEC forced them to limit their pumping to 3.2 million barrels per day, despite the fact that the country has invested aggressively to reach a production capacity of 5 million barrels by 2027, the same year in which its new megagas pipeline to Fujairah will be ready. But as various international media explain, this divorce is not just about money. Abu Dhabi feels betrayed. The Emirates have had to absorb much of the impact of Iranian missiles and drones alone, feeling that their Arab “brothers” and the Gulf Cooperation Council were turning their backs on them. Therefore, the consequences of this schism will be tectonic. The cartel has seen its global market share plummet to 26%. When the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the West-East pipeline operates at full capacity, the Emirates will flood the market under its own rules, leaving a lone Saudi Arabia to bear the brutal cost of trying to stabilize prices in a world of extreme volatility. The cold war for the future The Emirati order, in fact, is directly addressed to Riyadh. In the silent cold war it is waging with Saudi Arabia for regional hegemony, the Emirates refuses to be a supporting actor in the face of Prince Mohamed bin Salman’s monolithic “Vision 2030.” As explained Middle East Economythe UAE can afford to leave OPEC and endure a downward pulse in prices because its break-even Fiscal is around a comfortable $45 per barrel, compared to the much greater needs of its neighbors. Thanks to diversification, the Emirates today generates 25% of its electricity with the Barakah nuclear power plant and has immense solar parks, allowing itself to use today’s petrodollars to finance hydrogen and the technology of tomorrow. However, this apparent invulnerability has a terrifying blind spot. Military analysts warn that, in the era of hybrid warfare, a steel pipe is of little use if a $500 drone can paralyze the region. The Third Gulf War already demonstrated this fragility when a drone reached the gigantic Emirati Ruwais refinery. Added to this is the panic unleashed when pro-Iranian militias explicitly threatened vital infrastructure such as the Barakah nuclear power plant. The Emirates is building its financial and logistical freedom, yes, but it is doing so through a minefield. The new West-East pipeline is ultimately much more than a … Read more

Hormuz blockade is about to cause serious problems for Samsung and TSMC

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The closing of Strait of Hormuz because of the conflict with Iran has turned the entire technology industry upside down and energy, beyond all the geopolitical tension that has been dragging on. It is an earthquake that runs through the entire semiconductor supply chainincluding key components that we do not have in mind a priori, but that are essential for the production of all types of microchips. From the most specialized gases to solvents, minerals and, essentially, all critical raw materials that are now much more complicated and expensive to obtain. Raw material. Apart from silicon, there are other essential raw materials for chip manufacturing that have recently been very difficult to obtain. Just like they count From Bloomberg, the production of these chips requires dozens of materials as specific as ultrapure gases, acids, solvents, resins… Many of which come from a very specific geographic region: the Middle East. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has suddenly cut off the supply of a good part of them, and although large manufacturers such as TSMC and Samsung have some accumulated inventory, the margin is narrowing with each passing week. Helium has no substitute. Helium is perhaps the most critical material of everyone. It is used to cool wafers during circuit etching, in EUV lithography processes, and to maintain the thermal stability of silicon. It has no substitute. Qatar produced about a third of the world’s supply, but Iranian attacks on its energy facilities in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed have paralyzed virtually all of its production. According to Bloomberga complete restoration could take up to five years. South Korea imported around 65% of its helium from Qatar, making Samsung and SK Hynix the most vulnerable manufacturers. Memory chips require much more helium than logic chips. bblunt, sulfuric acid and solvents. Beyond helium, the blockade is also affecting other equally critical materials. High-purity hydrogen bromide gas, essential for etching processes, is in short supply. High-purity sulfuric acid, used to clean wafers and remove photoresists once the circuits are printed, also is facing restrictions. Just like they explain In The Guardian, the Gulf exports about 45% of the world’s sulfur, the raw material from which it is obtained. And then there are solvents for photoresists, such as PGMEA, which is obtained from naphtha, a crude oil derivative that previously came largely from Iran. Inventories. The large manufacturers have come out to say that, for the moment, they have enough reserves to last several months. The South Korean government confirmed in April that bromine and helium inventories covered several months of production. TSMC, for its part, said it does not expect an immediate impact, although it warned that the prices of certain gases and chemicals will likely rise. The problem is that many of these materials have a limited useful life, since they cannot be stored indefinitely. Liquid helium evaporates during transport (especially now that ships must go around Africa), and photoresist solvents expire once opened. Jonathan Colehower, general manager of UST’s Global Operations and Supply Chain department, counted to PC Gamer that companies like Samsung “were operating with very tight inventories” following the just-in-time model, and that “this was not on their radar.” cgeographical concentration. One of the hardest lessons of this crisis is that the technology supply chain has very specific choke points. And it is not just about the Gulf producing oil; the thing is produces very specific materials in very specific installations that have no easy equivalent elsewhere. Jenna Ingram, Director of Proactive Intelligence at Exiger, counted told PC Gamer that manufacturers that previously bought helium from the Gulf are now competing for the same limited volume produced by Canada and the United States, which already had their own customers. It should be added that China has just restricted its exports of sulfuric acid and that Russia has imposed temporary controls on helium exports, making the picture even more complicated. Who will endure and who will not. In this scenario, size matters a lot. The big ones (TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix) have enough purchasing power to sneak to the front of the queue when there is a shortage, pay premiums for high purity materials and draw on strategic relationships if necessary. The smallest ones, no. According to GartnerIf the situation continues, it could also affect the AI ​​industry. For consumers, the forecast is not at all hopeful. Supply priorities will most likely favor AI infrastructure over consumer electronics. How long will this last? “I think at best we are looking at another 12 or 18 months of difficulties. I don’t think this will reset overnight,” explained to the media Derek Lemke, Senior Vice President of Product Intelligence at Exiger. Colehower, for his part, explains that “a good part of the damage is not only an interruption of supply, but damaged infrastructure” that must be rebuilt. And, above all, he emphasizes that “prices are sticky. They go up, but they rarely go down.” Cover image | Harrison Broadbent In Xataka | China takes off in quantum computers: it already has the first dual-core and 200 qubits on the planet ready

While everyone was looking at Hormuz, Russia has found a much bigger secret route. And drones do not stop arriving in Iran

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During the Cold War, Western intelligence services came to suspect that some Soviet freighters that apparently transported grain or machinery were actually hiding military equipment and technology sensitive under false covers. The problem was that, once inside certain internal routes controlled by Moscow and its allies, tracking them became extraordinarily difficult even for the greatest naval powers on the planet. While the world watches Hormuz. For months, the Strait of Hormuz has become the perfect symbol of Western pressure on Iran: US aircraft carriers, oil tankers diverting routes, marine insurance fired and constant threats on one of the great energy bottlenecks on the planet. However, while all international attention was focused there, Russia and Iran have been consolidating a much less visible and probably much more uncomfortable route for Washington: the Caspian Sea. It The New York Times said the weekend. This enormous space of inland water in northern Iran, usually ignored in geopolitical analyses, is being transformed into a true strategic highway to move goods, drones, military components and technology away from the direct reach of the United States. The photo. The most revealing image came when Israel bombed the Iranian port of Bandar Anzali, in the heart of the Caspian, in one of the most significant attacks of its campaign against Iran. The target was not in the Persian Gulf or Hormuz, but hundreds of kilometers further north. It was a clear sign that real logistical warfare no longer revolves solely around the most famous strait on the planet. The route that keeps Iran alive. The importance of the Caspian for Tehran has grown spectacularly since the pressure on Hormuz intensified. Russian and Iranian ships now transport wheat, corn, sunflower oil, animal feed and all kinds of of essential supplies who previously arrived via more vulnerable routes. Four Iranian Caspian ports are working at full capacity to absorb this growing traffic, while Moscow has begun to redirect millions of tons of goods that previously crossed the Black Sea. It turns out that the true strategic core is not in the cereal. According to US officials, Russia is using that route to send drone components to Iran to help it rebuild part of the arsenal lost during the last fighting with Israel and the United States. The relationship is especially symbolic because for years It was Iran that supplied Russia with Shahed drones for the war in Ukraine. Now the flow has partially reversed: Moscow manufactures its own versions under license and returns technology, components and military expertise to Tehran using the Caspian as a protected corridor. A perfect sea to avoid sanctions. The great advantage of the Caspian for Russia and Iran is that it is an extraordinarily difficult to control from outside. Unlike the Persian Gulf, where the US naval presence dominates much of the maritime traffic, in the Caspian they can only operate the five coastal countries. The United States cannot intercept ships there or impose direct blockades. Furthermore, a large part of the ships sail with transponders offdisappearing from satellite tracking systems and feeding an increasingly opaque network of “ghost ships.” In fact, Western analysts describe the Caspian as the ideal place for discreet military transfers and sanctions evasion. Dark shipping traffic has skyrocketed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and both Moscow and Tehran have perfected methods to hide real shipments, routes and operators. It is no coincidence that Ukraine attacked the Russian port of Olya in 2024, accusing it of being a logistics center for the transfer of Iranian drone components. Nor that Israel Bandar Anzali will hit. Everyone seems to have understood that a logistical rearguard is being built there that is much more resistant than it appears. Moscow’s strategic obsession. Plus: for the Kremlin, the Caspian is not just a temporary solution derived from sanctions or the war in Ukraine. Russia and Iran have two decades imagining a gigantic trade corridor that connects the Baltic with the Indian Ocean, crossing Russia, the Caspian and Iran to avoid routes controlled by the West. The project includes new portsrailway lines and renewal of aging fleets, although many of these plans remain on paper due to lack of resources and the geographical difficulties of the Caspian. Still, the war has accelerated the strategic logic behind that idea: creating an alternative system of commercial and military circulation outside the reach of Western sanctions. For Putin, furthermore, the balance is delicate. Needs to support Iran as a regional ally and military partner, but do so in an all-too-visible way could deteriorate even more so its relationship with Washington and with several Arab countries important for Russian energy trade. The Caspian offers precisely that: sufficient support, but far from the media and military focus that Hormuz dominates. America’s great blind spot. Much of the Western concern arises from a very uncomfortable feeling: for years, the Caspian hardly occupied any space in American strategic planning. Experts in Washington recognize that the region functions almost like a black hole diplomat divided between different military commands and bureaucratic departments. Thus, while the world observed aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf or drones over Ukraine, Russia and Iran took advantage of an immense, opaque and difficult to monitor geographic space to weave a logistics network that connects both conflicts. The problem for the United States is not that the Caspian completely replaces Hormuz, because it cannot do so, especially in massive oil exports. The real problem is that even under extreme military pressure, sanctions and naval blockades, Iran continues to find ways to stay connectedrearm and receive outside support. And each drone, each component and each shipment that silently crosses the Caspian reinforces an increasingly evident idea: while everyone was looking at the Strait of Hormuz, Russia and Iran they were building an alternative route much more difficult to stop. Image | PexelsNASA In Xataka | We sensed that Iran’s attacks on the US had been important. In reality, they were devastating In Xataka | While the whole world looks at … Read more

Europe feared an apocalypse due to Hormuz. A cocktail of batteries, rain and reactors is saving us in extremis

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The world seems to be burning from all sides and global logistics has gone into panic. We had been holding our breath for weeks before the Third Gulf War, the fear of a crisis identical to that of 2022 has materialized in tangible disasters: airlines like Lufthansa they had to cancel up to 20,000 flights for this summer due to the shortage and extreme rise in aviation fuel prices (jet fuel). However, in the midst of this oil cataclysm, something counterintuitive is happening that defies all predictions. As the expert Javier Blas sharply points out In his recent opinion column for Bloomberg“despite the oil shock due to the Iran war, Europe’s electricity markets are calm.” This is the great anomaly of 2026. Breaking down the phenomenon To understand the miracle, you must first understand the threat. In a normal scenario, the logistical shock that means that 20% of the entire planet’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz should have shredded European domestic economies. The contagion mechanism has a clear theoretical culprit: the marginalist system of the electricity market. In this model, the most expensive technology that comes in to cover demand (historically, gas) is the one that sets the final price of all electricity. Therefore, if the missiles in Qatar make global gas more expensive, the electricity bill in Madrid, Paris or Berlin should be through the roof. But surprisingly, this time the drive belt has broken. The invisible shield The backbone of this European resistance focuses on what energy analyst Javier Blas defines it as a miscalculation: many continue to look at the market “through a filter focused only on oil that belongs to a bygone era”, when today electricity is the true pulse of the economy. The current shielding is the result of a conjunction of factors that act as a providential recovery. First, the rescue in extremis of French nuclear energy. If in 2022 the French country had dozens of reactors stopped due to cracks and was operating at 30-year lows (less than 21 gigawatts), Today it is injecting between 45 and 55 GWproviding a vital energy base not only for France, but for its neighbors, including Germany. Added to this is the end of the drought. The heavy rains in southern Europe and normal rainfall in the rest of the continent has revived hydropower, the EU’s fourth largest source. But the real protagonist is someone else. Solar energy is breaking records, sinking short-term prices to negative levels on weekends in Germany, or to just 18 cents in Spain. In fact, the “fiscal shield” of the Spanish Government, together with the record deployment of 30 GW of solar and wind energy since 2022, have managed to sink the wholesale market to a low €41.5/MWh, allowing the regulated rate to drop by almost 5% year-on-year. The final piece of this puzzle is provided by a report from the IRENA agency: the miracle of batteries. Its cost has plummeted by 93% since 2010. Today, the combination of solar and wind farms with batteries is already capable of offering uninterrupted electricity at prices that compete head-on with Chinese coal or new global gas plants. The cracks in the shield. Despite this triumphalism, European armor is not titanium; It has significant cracks. Although Javier Blas emphasizes that the post-2022 investments in the electricity grid are bearing fruit, the system hangs by a thread every day when the clock strikes eight in the afternoon. Our “Spanish green shield” has a blind spot: the sunset. As the sun disappears, and as there is still no massive deployment of batteries nationwide, the gas combined cycles have to be turned on to sustain the network, returning tension to prices (with nighttime peaks that in March reached €247/MWh). Furthermore, experts agree that the hydroelectric mattress It will evaporate with the heat of the imminent summer. To this we must add that the French nuclear “miracle” hides some worrying fine print. France has broken its historical record by exporting 92.3 TWh, but it has done so, in part, because its internal consumption is stagnant and they continue to lag enormously behind in electrification. Worse still, in its eagerness to protect the profitability of its pharaonic atomic industry, the Elysée acts as a protective wall: it deliberately blocks interconnections with the Iberian Peninsula to prevent hyper-cheap Spanish solar energy from flooding Europe. Finally, structural problems plague the entire continent. According to platform data Earth40% of European transmission lines are more than 40 years old. They were designed for large fossil plants, not to integrate millions of solar rooftops. Without urgent modernization, the network could become our biggest Achilles heel. The new security doctrine. What this Third Gulf War makes clear is that the ecological transition has mutated. It is no longer a mere question of saving the planet; It is a matter of geopolitical survival. Renewables are being explicitly redefined as “weapons of energy security.” The figures speak for themselves: in the first weeks of the war in Iran alone, the European solar fleet saved more than 110 million euros per day in imported gas costs. This is why the European climate commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra, insists in statements to Euronews that Europe must be “more radical”. This involves accelerating electrification using heat pumps and betting on deep geothermal energy, capable of replacing up to 42% of current fossil generation operating 24 hours a day. War as a catalyst. As Blaise’s central thesis concludesEurope is resisting what many call the worst energy shock in history with an electrical fortitude that was unthinkable four years ago. However, catalysts alone do not guarantee results. Inflation and interest rate increases derived from this same war threaten to make more expensive financing future clean infrastructure. It is clear that we have bought a valuable truce thanks to the rain, the efforts of French nuclear power and the sweat of solar panels. This crisis has impressed upon us a definitive lesson: always It will be infinitely … Read more

from futuristic city to the great logistical shortcut that eludes Hormuz

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In 1869, when it was inaugurated the Suez Canala long caravan of boats crossed for the first time an artificial pass that changed trade routes millennia in a matter of days, not months. What seemed like an almost utopian work ended up demonstrating that, when a strategic route is transformed, the entire balance of world trade can revolve around it. The map changes with a closure. He closure of the strait of Hormuz during the war with Iran has shown to what extent a relatively small strip of water can disrupt global trade. In fact, the Gulf Countries have been forced to improvise alternative routes to maintain the flow of goods and energy. Saudi Arabia, although less affected than other neighbors, has had to quickly reconfigure your logistics network. The result is that this kind of global shock has accelerated decisions that had been on the table for years and has changed strategic priorities. Neom comes down to earth. Yes, the futuristic megaproject and increasingly utopian of Neom, conceived as a fantastic vision with developments like The Lineit seems that it has entered a much more pragmatic phase. As we have been saying, the extra costs and the economic pressure have forced us to cut back on ambitions and focus on projects that generate tangible value. And in that turn, the neom port and the industrial city by Oxagon They have gained prominence. As? The logic has shifted towards what can be built, financed and operationalized within a realistic economic framework. The great shortcut: avoiding Hormuz from the Red Sea. The war has given immediate meaning to this reconversion. counted the financial times this morning that the port of Neom is positioning itself as an alternative door which connects Europe, Africa and the Gulf without passing through Hormuz. From that perspective, goods travel from Europe to the Mediterranean, cross Egypt and reach the Red Sea to redeploy to the Gulf by sea and land. This route, already in use by several European countries, has become more relevant as the strait was blocked. Neom Under construction… but already operational. Although the project is still in development, the port is already working and shows signs of activity growing. In fact, satellite images they have captured traffic of trucks and operations at the site, while infrastructure such as automated cranes, container terminals and sustainable energy systems are completed. The ambition is to turn it into an electrical porthighly automated and prepared for large vessels. All of this currently places it as an emerging piece within the Saudi logistics network. The turn to the west: the economy moves towards the Red Sea. Because the crisis has accelerated a structural change in Saudi Arabia. The economic weight, traditionally concentrated on the Gulf coast, begins to shift towards the red sea. Infrastructure such as the east-west pipeline and the port of Yanbu have gained importancewhile exports increase from that facade. The problem: that although the movement reduces vulnerability to Iran, it also introduces new risks in other areas. Beyond Neom: a network of routes to resist. Yes, because the momentum is not limited to a single project. Apparently, the Times said that Saudi Arabia and its neighbors are already developing logistics corridors, combining ports, roads and future rail connections. Multimodal routes connecting the Gulf with the Red Sea and other markets are also being integrated. The objective seems clear: create redundancy in supply chains to avoid depending on a single strategic step. From science fiction to real geopolitics. In this context, the scenario that is being glimpsed indicates that Neom stops being just a futuristic and hyperbolic symbol and becomes a whole a strategic tool. The war has acted as a catalyst, transforming an ambitious and possibly utopian vision into a practical solution for an immediate problem. There is no doubt, the project was not originally designed to avoid Hormuz by any means, but now it fits perfectly into that role. And in that change it is summarized the new reality: When routes fail, it is possible that even the most futuristic ideas may end up being necessary. Image | NEOM In Xataka | NEOM may have failed, but Saudi Arabia still has crazy things in its hat: a huge artificial lake at 2,600 meters In Xataka | While NEOM builds ski slopes in the desert, Dubai is going in the opposite direction: attracting tourism without going bankrupt

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