Hormuz

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz chokes the Chinese economy. Its only energy solution is a historic pact with Putin

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“一日不见，如隔三秋” (A day without seeing you is like three autumns). Using the Russian translation of this ancient Chinese proverb, President Vladimir Putin wanted to begin his meeting with Xi Jinping. The gesture of extreme closeness was not accidental. Tiananmen Square was dressed up with a 21-gun salute, a military band and dozens of children waving flags to welcome the Russian president. On the face of it, Beijing displayed the same diplomatic theatrics and pageantry it had offered to US President Donald Trump just days earlier, as detailed Bloomberg. However, the background was diametrically opposite: if with Trump the red carpet sought to appease and choreograph stability with a volatile rival, with Putin the authority and support for a cornered partner was staged. The Chinese leader addressed his counterpart as an “old friend,” a term unusually reserved in the Party bureaucracy for highly regarded foreigners. The visit, which marks the 25th anniversary of the signing of the friendship treaty between both countries and represents Putin’s 25th trip to China, represents a vital alliance at the most critical moment of the decade. Behind the walks through the imperial gardens and the closed-door meetings, there is a suffocating urgency. The global board is burning due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz derived from the war between the United States and Iran, a blockade that has cut off Asia’s energy arteries and has turned this summit into a geopolitical lifeline. The Siberian lifeguard. The response to the crisis has a clear name on the agenda of both leaders: the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline. According to the estimatesOnce completed, this colossal 2,600-kilometer-long infrastructure will transport up to 50 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas per year from the Russian Arctic fields of Yamal to northern China, passing through Mongolia. Moscow and Beijing have already reached a “general understanding” on the project, encompassing consensus on the layout and construction methods, as stated Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov told journalists and spokesman Dmitri Peskov confirmed. Additionally, both governments have signed a legally binding supply memorandum to boost construction. But all that glitters is not gold. As newspapers such as he Financial Times and CNBCthe agreement has been stumbling over the same rock for years: the price, financing and delivery schedule. China, aware of its position of strength, demands that the rate for the new gas pipeline be equal to the price of the heavily subsidized Russian domestic market (between $120 and $130 per 1,000 cubic meters), conditions that would drastically reduce the profit margins for the Russian state giant Gazprom. Furthermore, secrecy and caution reign in Beijing: as pointed out Reuterswhen Gazprom announced the memorandum last September, China did not issue any official statement on the matter. And even if the agreement is closed now, Russian salvation will not be immediate; from the research unit of China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) has already has warned that gas projects of this magnitude require at least eight to ten years for their construction. The Hormuz factor: a geopolitical accelerator. If the gas pipeline had been on the drawing board for years, the Third Gulf War has stepped on the accelerator. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a real cataclysm in the Indo-Pacific region. This maritime blockade has suddenly interrupted the arrival of half of China’s oil imports and almost a third of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply. The consequences they have been immediate: The Asian giant has already reported a rebound in inflation and an abrupt weakening of its domestic economic activity during the month of April. Faced with maritime vulnerability, securing a land supply route is vital for Beijing’s survival. As experts in German Welleinstability in the Gulf has triggered China’s desire for a pipelined energy flow that is immune to Western sanctions or American naval blockades. Still, China faces this crisis with homework done. Far from improvising, Beijing took advantage of the previous years to buy heavily sanctioned crude oil from countries such as Russia, Venezuela and Iran. Thanks to this, China today has colossal strategic reserves, also supported by a fleet of Iranian oil tankers that function as a floating warehouse off its coasts. A deeply strained and asymmetrical relationship. Although official statements speak of “mutual respect” and a “limitless” partnership, economic reality depicts a deeply unequal relationship. President Putin himself has declared that Russia and China want to be equal partners, but the gap is evident: the Chinese economy is almost eight times larger and much more technologically advanced. Without China’s money and technology, the very survival of the Russian regime would be in question. The data is devastating. According to him Financial TimesRussia has suffered a 38% year-on-year drop in its energy export revenues. To survive Western isolation, Moscow has turned China into its lifeline. At the end of last year, more than 99% of bilateral trade was settled in rubles and yuan to circumvent the SWIFT system, and Beijing currently supplies 90% of imports of sanctioned Russian technology, including semiconductors, microelectronics and dual-use goods, essential for its war machine. For his part, Xi Jinping carries out a delicate diplomatic balancing act. His meeting with Putin comes just days after his summit with Donald Trump. This synchronicity allows Russia a key tactical move: as reported EuronewsPutin’s trip serves to receive direct information and exchange views with Beijing on recent negotiations with Washington. Simultaneously, China does not hesitate to invoke its “Blocking Rules” to order its domestic refiners to ignore US sanctions and continue buying Iranian crude. But at the same time, as the newspaper highlights Asahi Shimbunthe Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed the purchase of 200 Boeing aircraft just after Trump’s visit, in a clear gesture to stabilize its economic ties with the West. A new world epicenter. The current crisis and the negotiations in Beijing certify an irreversible paradigm shift. The entry into operation of “Power of Siberia 2” is not just a commercial agreement, it is the chronicle of an announced breakup. … Read more

Without state aid, China feared that electric sales would plummet. Until the Hormuz crisis arrived

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It seemed that the market was retreating but, perhaps, what it was doing was taking a breath to come back much stronger. Never before in China have plug-in and electric hybrids, known as “new energy” cars, had so much weight. Last April, a new record was broken that only confirms where the future of its industry lies. Record. 61.4% of the cars sold in China last April they were “new energy” vehicles. This is the category used by the Chinese State to talk about plug-in and electric vehicles. Its market penetration is the highest in the country’s history. The figure is almost 10% higher than last year, despite the fact that sales have fallen. This means that gasoline-powered vehicles have collapsed and that the customer is already beginning to massively accept the plug-in vehicle as the car of the future. a collapse. It is the word they use in CarNewsChina to refer to the drop in sales of internal combustion cars. And, according to data provided by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), the sale of combustion cars has plummeted by 37% compared to the previous year and 33% compared to the month of March. Media like Jiemian They point to a clear cause of this trend: the price of oil. Last April, sales of cars with internal combustion engines were reduced by 530,000 units. The drop is undoubtedly influenced by a rise in the price of gasoline. The State has tried by all means to mitigate the impact on the consumer and the industry. In their market planning, the extra cost at the pump has been cushioned but, as they point out in Reutersgasoline and diesel are close to reaching all-time highs. Thank goodness. In Reuters They assure that China is the country that is best saving the oil crisis due to its diversified purchases but also due to the intensive use of electric cars. According to the Chinese media 36krIn 2024, China was already saving more than 400,000 barrels of oil per day thanks to its electric cars and represented a saving of 12% of its imports of this product. They explain that, although crude oil imports increased in 2025, this was due to an acceleration in the industry but electric cars helped mitigate the impact on purchases. Relief is key given the constant interruptions in regular supply of the countries near Hormuz. And it is that China has Russia as its main supplier but Saudi Arabia follows as second. A powerful track. So far this year, overall car sales in China have declined and especially “new energy” cars have been in the spotlight. Without the support of the State with purchase aidits sales have fallen by 17% but indications are that the oil crisis is helping the market rebound. In April, the drop in these cars was 6.8% while global sales fell 21.5%, both data compared to the same period of the previous year. In the first 10 days of Maysales of these cars have decreased by 13% compared to last year but have grown by 27% compared to the first 10 days of last April. Without state aid, car sales in China have fallen, underscoring the country’s historic problem in encourage family consumption. However, it does make it clear to us that the slowdown between plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles is being less than that of the rest of the technologies despite the fact that the State has stopped pushing. A backup. The movement towards electric vehicles is an endorsement of the policies of the Chinese state. With the economy managed with five-year plans, China has been building a base for more than two decades to be dominant with the Chinese electric car. He attracted knowledge by giving up landhas built a solid foundation in the supply chain and now Their brands already dominate the local marketthe largest in the world. But they have also given a lesson that is beginning to be seen outside their borders: the electric car is a good tool to alleviate the complications of the oil market. On a day-to-day basis, the savings by charging an electric car at low power are very high. If the price of gasoline rises, the savings skyrocket. Beyond China. Aware of this, China has put the turbo into its exports. BYD (which only sells plug-in vehicles) has broken a new shipment record. They are at the perfect time to enter the market with their low ranges but also offering electric cars at very competitive prices. Especially among plug-in hybrids. At the moment, most of the sales of Chinese cars in Europe are low-end cars with combustion engines. This already helps them penetrate the market, gain share and begin to be seen by new potential clients. But, also, its plug-in hybrids do not pay tariffs. This is allowing them to compete on price with Europeans and in countries like Spain, where it is considered the main purchasing value for a large part of the market, it is key. For example, a fact: so far this year, five of the 10 best-selling plug-in hybrid cars in Spain they are Chinese. Photo | INC and BYD In Xataka | An electric car is 54% cheaper to maintain than a combustion car. And it may not compensate because the data has a trick

The Strait of Hormuz has become a death trap. The Arab Emirates’ solution is a pharaonic oil “bypass” through the desert

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The new energy order is not debated in suit and tie summits, but is rising against the clock under the scorching sun of the Arabian Peninsula. Suffocated by the Third Gulf War, the United Arab Emirates has hit the table: it refuses to leave the survival of its trade routes in the hands of chance, war or its neighbors. The strategy is clear: if the strait is a minefield, they will build a rear exit. The news that has shaken the foundations of oil logistics came to light through official channels. According to a statement from the company itself ADNOC (the Emirati state oil company), His Highness Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed has chaired a key meeting in which he has ordered an urgent directive: to accelerate the construction of the new “West-East Pipeline” project. But what infrastructure are we talking about exactly? As energy analyst Javier Blas points outthe key to this movement is that the Emirates is laying out a second oil pipeline expressly designed to turn its back on the Strait of Hormuz. The date marked on the calendar is 2027. When they open the tap, this new infrastructure will double the volume of crude oil that the country takes out to the world through the port of Fujairah (in the Gulf of Oman). In practical figures, this represents a gigantic leap: they will go from the 1.5 million barrels a day that they move right now, to injecting between 3 and 3.5 million. It is not a project improvised in the last week. As analyst Bachar El-Halabi points outwork on this project began quietly in early 2024, long before the war in Iran paralyzed the region. However, the conflict has acted as the definitive “catalyst.” The war did not inspire the pipeline, but it has injected it with urgency. The logistical “antidote” As was discussed in the middle Amwaj Mediathe Iran war has starkly exhibited the tremendous vulnerability of maritime bottlenecks (chokepoints). The near-total shutdown of Hormuz has caused the worst supply disruption in history, removing 12% of the world’s oil from the market. In this context, the West-East pipeline stands as a lifeline. This Emirati infrastructure, added to the gigantic oil pipeline East-West (or Petroline) of 1,200 kilometers that Saudi Arabia has reactivated towards the Red Sea, form a true logistical “antidote.” They are escape routes that neutralize Tehran’s blackmail, allowing crude oil to go out into the world without entering the range of missiles and blockades in the Persian Gulf. They are, in the words of experts, “buying invaluable time” for the West. To understand the privilege of having this infrastructure, just look at the neighboring country: the situation in Iraq exposes the other side of the coin. Lacking alternative outlets to the sea and completely dependent on Hormuz, Iraq has been left without physical space to store its own oil. As a result, Baghdad has been forced to shut down 70% of production in its prolific southern fields and beg the Kurdistan region to let them use an old, patched-up pipeline to Turkey that barely manages to export 250,000 barrels a day. Iraq is a hostage to its own geography; The Emirates, on the other hand, are buying their freedom with steel and engineering. A free (and flooded) market by 2027 All this new logistical muscle takes on its true meaning when it intersects with another historic decision: the Emirates’ slamming of the door on OPEC+. Emirates has formally left the organizationarguing the defense of their “national interest.” After almost six decades, the country has decided that its national interests no longer fit into the cartel’s quotas. The UAE had been accumulating commercial frustration for years because OPEC forced them to limit their pumping to 3.2 million barrels per day, despite the fact that the country has invested aggressively to reach a production capacity of 5 million barrels by 2027, the same year in which its new megagas pipeline to Fujairah will be ready. But as various international media explain, this divorce is not just about money. Abu Dhabi feels betrayed. The Emirates have had to absorb much of the impact of Iranian missiles and drones alone, feeling that their Arab “brothers” and the Gulf Cooperation Council were turning their backs on them. Therefore, the consequences of this schism will be tectonic. The cartel has seen its global market share plummet to 26%. When the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the West-East pipeline operates at full capacity, the Emirates will flood the market under its own rules, leaving a lone Saudi Arabia to bear the brutal cost of trying to stabilize prices in a world of extreme volatility. The cold war for the future The Emirati order, in fact, is directly addressed to Riyadh. In the silent cold war it is waging with Saudi Arabia for regional hegemony, the Emirates refuses to be a supporting actor in the face of Prince Mohamed bin Salman’s monolithic “Vision 2030.” As explained Middle East Economythe UAE can afford to leave OPEC and endure a downward pulse in prices because its break-even Fiscal is around a comfortable $45 per barrel, compared to the much greater needs of its neighbors. Thanks to diversification, the Emirates today generates 25% of its electricity with the Barakah nuclear power plant and has immense solar parks, allowing itself to use today’s petrodollars to finance hydrogen and the technology of tomorrow. However, this apparent invulnerability has a terrifying blind spot. Military analysts warn that, in the era of hybrid warfare, a steel pipe is of little use if a $500 drone can paralyze the region. The Third Gulf War already demonstrated this fragility when a drone reached the gigantic Emirati Ruwais refinery. Added to this is the panic unleashed when pro-Iranian militias explicitly threatened vital infrastructure such as the Barakah nuclear power plant. The Emirates is building its financial and logistical freedom, yes, but it is doing so through a minefield. The new West-East pipeline is ultimately much more than a … Read more

Hormuz blockade is about to cause serious problems for Samsung and TSMC

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The closing of Strait of Hormuz because of the conflict with Iran has turned the entire technology industry upside down and energy, beyond all the geopolitical tension that has been dragging on. It is an earthquake that runs through the entire semiconductor supply chainincluding key components that we do not have in mind a priori, but that are essential for the production of all types of microchips. From the most specialized gases to solvents, minerals and, essentially, all critical raw materials that are now much more complicated and expensive to obtain. Raw material. Apart from silicon, there are other essential raw materials for chip manufacturing that have recently been very difficult to obtain. Just like they count From Bloomberg, the production of these chips requires dozens of materials as specific as ultrapure gases, acids, solvents, resins… Many of which come from a very specific geographic region: the Middle East. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has suddenly cut off the supply of a good part of them, and although large manufacturers such as TSMC and Samsung have some accumulated inventory, the margin is narrowing with each passing week. Helium has no substitute. Helium is perhaps the most critical material of everyone. It is used to cool wafers during circuit etching, in EUV lithography processes, and to maintain the thermal stability of silicon. It has no substitute. Qatar produced about a third of the world’s supply, but Iranian attacks on its energy facilities in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed have paralyzed virtually all of its production. According to Bloomberga complete restoration could take up to five years. South Korea imported around 65% of its helium from Qatar, making Samsung and SK Hynix the most vulnerable manufacturers. Memory chips require much more helium than logic chips. bblunt, sulfuric acid and solvents. Beyond helium, the blockade is also affecting other equally critical materials. High-purity hydrogen bromide gas, essential for etching processes, is in short supply. High-purity sulfuric acid, used to clean wafers and remove photoresists once the circuits are printed, also is facing restrictions. Just like they explain In The Guardian, the Gulf exports about 45% of the world’s sulfur, the raw material from which it is obtained. And then there are solvents for photoresists, such as PGMEA, which is obtained from naphtha, a crude oil derivative that previously came largely from Iran. Inventories. The large manufacturers have come out to say that, for the moment, they have enough reserves to last several months. The South Korean government confirmed in April that bromine and helium inventories covered several months of production. TSMC, for its part, said it does not expect an immediate impact, although it warned that the prices of certain gases and chemicals will likely rise. The problem is that many of these materials have a limited useful life, since they cannot be stored indefinitely. Liquid helium evaporates during transport (especially now that ships must go around Africa), and photoresist solvents expire once opened. Jonathan Colehower, general manager of UST’s Global Operations and Supply Chain department, counted to PC Gamer that companies like Samsung “were operating with very tight inventories” following the just-in-time model, and that “this was not on their radar.” cgeographical concentration. One of the hardest lessons of this crisis is that the technology supply chain has very specific choke points. And it is not just about the Gulf producing oil; the thing is produces very specific materials in very specific installations that have no easy equivalent elsewhere. Jenna Ingram, Director of Proactive Intelligence at Exiger, counted told PC Gamer that manufacturers that previously bought helium from the Gulf are now competing for the same limited volume produced by Canada and the United States, which already had their own customers. It should be added that China has just restricted its exports of sulfuric acid and that Russia has imposed temporary controls on helium exports, making the picture even more complicated. Who will endure and who will not. In this scenario, size matters a lot. The big ones (TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix) have enough purchasing power to sneak to the front of the queue when there is a shortage, pay premiums for high purity materials and draw on strategic relationships if necessary. The smallest ones, no. According to GartnerIf the situation continues, it could also affect the AI ​​industry. For consumers, the forecast is not at all hopeful. Supply priorities will most likely favor AI infrastructure over consumer electronics. How long will this last? “I think at best we are looking at another 12 or 18 months of difficulties. I don’t think this will reset overnight,” explained to the media Derek Lemke, Senior Vice President of Product Intelligence at Exiger. Colehower, for his part, explains that “a good part of the damage is not only an interruption of supply, but damaged infrastructure” that must be rebuilt. And, above all, he emphasizes that “prices are sticky. They go up, but they rarely go down.” Cover image | Harrison Broadbent In Xataka | China takes off in quantum computers: it already has the first dual-core and 200 qubits on the planet ready

While everyone was looking at Hormuz, Russia has found a much bigger secret route. And drones do not stop arriving in Iran

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During the Cold War, Western intelligence services came to suspect that some Soviet freighters that apparently transported grain or machinery were actually hiding military equipment and technology sensitive under false covers. The problem was that, once inside certain internal routes controlled by Moscow and its allies, tracking them became extraordinarily difficult even for the greatest naval powers on the planet. While the world watches Hormuz. For months, the Strait of Hormuz has become the perfect symbol of Western pressure on Iran: US aircraft carriers, oil tankers diverting routes, marine insurance fired and constant threats on one of the great energy bottlenecks on the planet. However, while all international attention was focused there, Russia and Iran have been consolidating a much less visible and probably much more uncomfortable route for Washington: the Caspian Sea. It The New York Times said the weekend. This enormous space of inland water in northern Iran, usually ignored in geopolitical analyses, is being transformed into a true strategic highway to move goods, drones, military components and technology away from the direct reach of the United States. The photo. The most revealing image came when Israel bombed the Iranian port of Bandar Anzali, in the heart of the Caspian, in one of the most significant attacks of its campaign against Iran. The target was not in the Persian Gulf or Hormuz, but hundreds of kilometers further north. It was a clear sign that real logistical warfare no longer revolves solely around the most famous strait on the planet. The route that keeps Iran alive. The importance of the Caspian for Tehran has grown spectacularly since the pressure on Hormuz intensified. Russian and Iranian ships now transport wheat, corn, sunflower oil, animal feed and all kinds of of essential supplies who previously arrived via more vulnerable routes. Four Iranian Caspian ports are working at full capacity to absorb this growing traffic, while Moscow has begun to redirect millions of tons of goods that previously crossed the Black Sea. It turns out that the true strategic core is not in the cereal. According to US officials, Russia is using that route to send drone components to Iran to help it rebuild part of the arsenal lost during the last fighting with Israel and the United States. The relationship is especially symbolic because for years It was Iran that supplied Russia with Shahed drones for the war in Ukraine. Now the flow has partially reversed: Moscow manufactures its own versions under license and returns technology, components and military expertise to Tehran using the Caspian as a protected corridor. A perfect sea to avoid sanctions. The great advantage of the Caspian for Russia and Iran is that it is an extraordinarily difficult to control from outside. Unlike the Persian Gulf, where the US naval presence dominates much of the maritime traffic, in the Caspian they can only operate the five coastal countries. The United States cannot intercept ships there or impose direct blockades. Furthermore, a large part of the ships sail with transponders offdisappearing from satellite tracking systems and feeding an increasingly opaque network of “ghost ships.” In fact, Western analysts describe the Caspian as the ideal place for discreet military transfers and sanctions evasion. Dark shipping traffic has skyrocketed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and both Moscow and Tehran have perfected methods to hide real shipments, routes and operators. It is no coincidence that Ukraine attacked the Russian port of Olya in 2024, accusing it of being a logistics center for the transfer of Iranian drone components. Nor that Israel Bandar Anzali will hit. Everyone seems to have understood that a logistical rearguard is being built there that is much more resistant than it appears. Moscow’s strategic obsession. Plus: for the Kremlin, the Caspian is not just a temporary solution derived from sanctions or the war in Ukraine. Russia and Iran have two decades imagining a gigantic trade corridor that connects the Baltic with the Indian Ocean, crossing Russia, the Caspian and Iran to avoid routes controlled by the West. The project includes new portsrailway lines and renewal of aging fleets, although many of these plans remain on paper due to lack of resources and the geographical difficulties of the Caspian. Still, the war has accelerated the strategic logic behind that idea: creating an alternative system of commercial and military circulation outside the reach of Western sanctions. For Putin, furthermore, the balance is delicate. Needs to support Iran as a regional ally and military partner, but do so in an all-too-visible way could deteriorate even more so its relationship with Washington and with several Arab countries important for Russian energy trade. The Caspian offers precisely that: sufficient support, but far from the media and military focus that Hormuz dominates. America’s great blind spot. Much of the Western concern arises from a very uncomfortable feeling: for years, the Caspian hardly occupied any space in American strategic planning. Experts in Washington recognize that the region functions almost like a black hole diplomat divided between different military commands and bureaucratic departments. Thus, while the world observed aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf or drones over Ukraine, Russia and Iran took advantage of an immense, opaque and difficult to monitor geographic space to weave a logistics network that connects both conflicts. The problem for the United States is not that the Caspian completely replaces Hormuz, because it cannot do so, especially in massive oil exports. The real problem is that even under extreme military pressure, sanctions and naval blockades, Iran continues to find ways to stay connectedrearm and receive outside support. And each drone, each component and each shipment that silently crosses the Caspian reinforces an increasingly evident idea: while everyone was looking at the Strait of Hormuz, Russia and Iran they were building an alternative route much more difficult to stop. Image | PexelsNASA In Xataka | We sensed that Iran’s attacks on the US had been important. In reality, they were devastating In Xataka | While the whole world looks at … Read more

Europe feared an apocalypse due to Hormuz. A cocktail of batteries, rain and reactors is saving us in extremis

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The world seems to be burning from all sides and global logistics has gone into panic. We had been holding our breath for weeks before the Third Gulf War, the fear of a crisis identical to that of 2022 has materialized in tangible disasters: airlines like Lufthansa they had to cancel up to 20,000 flights for this summer due to the shortage and extreme rise in aviation fuel prices (jet fuel). However, in the midst of this oil cataclysm, something counterintuitive is happening that defies all predictions. As the expert Javier Blas sharply points out In his recent opinion column for Bloomberg“despite the oil shock due to the Iran war, Europe’s electricity markets are calm.” This is the great anomaly of 2026. Breaking down the phenomenon To understand the miracle, you must first understand the threat. In a normal scenario, the logistical shock that means that 20% of the entire planet’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz should have shredded European domestic economies. The contagion mechanism has a clear theoretical culprit: the marginalist system of the electricity market. In this model, the most expensive technology that comes in to cover demand (historically, gas) is the one that sets the final price of all electricity. Therefore, if the missiles in Qatar make global gas more expensive, the electricity bill in Madrid, Paris or Berlin should be through the roof. But surprisingly, this time the drive belt has broken. The invisible shield The backbone of this European resistance focuses on what energy analyst Javier Blas defines it as a miscalculation: many continue to look at the market “through a filter focused only on oil that belongs to a bygone era”, when today electricity is the true pulse of the economy. The current shielding is the result of a conjunction of factors that act as a providential recovery. First, the rescue in extremis of French nuclear energy. If in 2022 the French country had dozens of reactors stopped due to cracks and was operating at 30-year lows (less than 21 gigawatts), Today it is injecting between 45 and 55 GWproviding a vital energy base not only for France, but for its neighbors, including Germany. Added to this is the end of the drought. The heavy rains in southern Europe and normal rainfall in the rest of the continent has revived hydropower, the EU’s fourth largest source. But the real protagonist is someone else. Solar energy is breaking records, sinking short-term prices to negative levels on weekends in Germany, or to just 18 cents in Spain. In fact, the “fiscal shield” of the Spanish Government, together with the record deployment of 30 GW of solar and wind energy since 2022, have managed to sink the wholesale market to a low €41.5/MWh, allowing the regulated rate to drop by almost 5% year-on-year. The final piece of this puzzle is provided by a report from the IRENA agency: the miracle of batteries. Its cost has plummeted by 93% since 2010. Today, the combination of solar and wind farms with batteries is already capable of offering uninterrupted electricity at prices that compete head-on with Chinese coal or new global gas plants. The cracks in the shield. Despite this triumphalism, European armor is not titanium; It has significant cracks. Although Javier Blas emphasizes that the post-2022 investments in the electricity grid are bearing fruit, the system hangs by a thread every day when the clock strikes eight in the afternoon. Our “Spanish green shield” has a blind spot: the sunset. As the sun disappears, and as there is still no massive deployment of batteries nationwide, the gas combined cycles have to be turned on to sustain the network, returning tension to prices (with nighttime peaks that in March reached €247/MWh). Furthermore, experts agree that the hydroelectric mattress It will evaporate with the heat of the imminent summer. To this we must add that the French nuclear “miracle” hides some worrying fine print. France has broken its historical record by exporting 92.3 TWh, but it has done so, in part, because its internal consumption is stagnant and they continue to lag enormously behind in electrification. Worse still, in its eagerness to protect the profitability of its pharaonic atomic industry, the Elysée acts as a protective wall: it deliberately blocks interconnections with the Iberian Peninsula to prevent hyper-cheap Spanish solar energy from flooding Europe. Finally, structural problems plague the entire continent. According to platform data Earth40% of European transmission lines are more than 40 years old. They were designed for large fossil plants, not to integrate millions of solar rooftops. Without urgent modernization, the network could become our biggest Achilles heel. The new security doctrine. What this Third Gulf War makes clear is that the ecological transition has mutated. It is no longer a mere question of saving the planet; It is a matter of geopolitical survival. Renewables are being explicitly redefined as “weapons of energy security.” The figures speak for themselves: in the first weeks of the war in Iran alone, the European solar fleet saved more than 110 million euros per day in imported gas costs. This is why the European climate commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra, insists in statements to Euronews that Europe must be “more radical”. This involves accelerating electrification using heat pumps and betting on deep geothermal energy, capable of replacing up to 42% of current fossil generation operating 24 hours a day. War as a catalyst. As Blaise’s central thesis concludesEurope is resisting what many call the worst energy shock in history with an electrical fortitude that was unthinkable four years ago. However, catalysts alone do not guarantee results. Inflation and interest rate increases derived from this same war threaten to make more expensive financing future clean infrastructure. It is clear that we have bought a valuable truce thanks to the rain, the efforts of French nuclear power and the sweat of solar panels. This crisis has impressed upon us a definitive lesson: always It will be infinitely … Read more

from futuristic city to the great logistical shortcut that eludes Hormuz

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In 1869, when it was inaugurated the Suez Canala long caravan of boats crossed for the first time an artificial pass that changed trade routes millennia in a matter of days, not months. What seemed like an almost utopian work ended up demonstrating that, when a strategic route is transformed, the entire balance of world trade can revolve around it. The map changes with a closure. He closure of the strait of Hormuz during the war with Iran has shown to what extent a relatively small strip of water can disrupt global trade. In fact, the Gulf Countries have been forced to improvise alternative routes to maintain the flow of goods and energy. Saudi Arabia, although less affected than other neighbors, has had to quickly reconfigure your logistics network. The result is that this kind of global shock has accelerated decisions that had been on the table for years and has changed strategic priorities. Neom comes down to earth. Yes, the futuristic megaproject and increasingly utopian of Neom, conceived as a fantastic vision with developments like The Lineit seems that it has entered a much more pragmatic phase. As we have been saying, the extra costs and the economic pressure have forced us to cut back on ambitions and focus on projects that generate tangible value. And in that turn, the neom port and the industrial city by Oxagon They have gained prominence. As? The logic has shifted towards what can be built, financed and operationalized within a realistic economic framework. The great shortcut: avoiding Hormuz from the Red Sea. The war has given immediate meaning to this reconversion. counted the financial times this morning that the port of Neom is positioning itself as an alternative door which connects Europe, Africa and the Gulf without passing through Hormuz. From that perspective, goods travel from Europe to the Mediterranean, cross Egypt and reach the Red Sea to redeploy to the Gulf by sea and land. This route, already in use by several European countries, has become more relevant as the strait was blocked. Neom Under construction… but already operational. Although the project is still in development, the port is already working and shows signs of activity growing. In fact, satellite images they have captured traffic of trucks and operations at the site, while infrastructure such as automated cranes, container terminals and sustainable energy systems are completed. The ambition is to turn it into an electrical porthighly automated and prepared for large vessels. All of this currently places it as an emerging piece within the Saudi logistics network. The turn to the west: the economy moves towards the Red Sea. Because the crisis has accelerated a structural change in Saudi Arabia. The economic weight, traditionally concentrated on the Gulf coast, begins to shift towards the red sea. Infrastructure such as the east-west pipeline and the port of Yanbu have gained importancewhile exports increase from that facade. The problem: that although the movement reduces vulnerability to Iran, it also introduces new risks in other areas. Beyond Neom: a network of routes to resist. Yes, because the momentum is not limited to a single project. Apparently, the Times said that Saudi Arabia and its neighbors are already developing logistics corridors, combining ports, roads and future rail connections. Multimodal routes connecting the Gulf with the Red Sea and other markets are also being integrated. The objective seems clear: create redundancy in supply chains to avoid depending on a single strategic step. From science fiction to real geopolitics. In this context, the scenario that is being glimpsed indicates that Neom stops being just a futuristic and hyperbolic symbol and becomes a whole a strategic tool. The war has acted as a catalyst, transforming an ambitious and possibly utopian vision into a practical solution for an immediate problem. There is no doubt, the project was not originally designed to avoid Hormuz by any means, but now it fits perfectly into that role. And in that change it is summarized the new reality: When routes fail, it is possible that even the most futuristic ideas may end up being necessary. Image | NEOM In Xataka | NEOM may have failed, but Saudi Arabia still has crazy things in its hat: a huge artificial lake at 2,600 meters In Xataka | While NEOM builds ski slopes in the desert, Dubai is going in the opposite direction: attracting tourism without going bankrupt

We know that all things are in crisis due to the closure of Hormuz, but the aluminum thing is truly worrying

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The world economy has come face to face with a scenario that no one wanted to foresee. The global aluminum market is facing what analysts and experts already classify as a “black swan” event. The Third Gulf War has caused a drastic closure in shipping routes, triggering a supply crisis of historic proportions. An unprecedented crisis. “The magnitude of the supply crisis that we are seeing in the aluminum market is probably the largest single supply crisis that a base metals market has suffered in the post-2000 era,” Nick Snowdon, head of metals and mining research at the trading firm Mercuria, summarized it forcefully. in statements collected by the agency Reuters. And the numbers support the alarm: the Persian Gulf region has a smelting capacity of 7 million metric tons annually. That is, almost 9% of this year’s global supply is at the epicenter of a war conflict. A logistical bottleneck. The implications of this blockage go far beyond financial speculation, as aluminum is the backbone of vital industries such as transportation, construction and packaging. Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Demand Analyst in StoneXfocuses on logistical asphyxiation. According to the expert, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz does not have an easy solution, since “there are no other maritime routes that have a similar capacity.” This disruption, Scott-Gray explains, has the potential to eliminate up to 50% of the Middle East’s aluminum supply, equivalent to a direct 5% hit to global production. In Europe, the impact has already jumped from offices to factories. According to the specialized portal Miningconsumers in the construction and transportation sector are being squeezed. In Rotterdam, the physical premium (the extra cost paid above the market price to ensure delivery) for aluminum extrusion ingots has more than doubled since the start of the war, rising from $530 to $1,100 per metric ton. And the perfect storm arrives. The market has reacted with panic. According to data from Reutersfear of shortages triggered prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) to a four-year high, reaching $3,672 per ton in mid-April. Since the start of hostilities, the reference price has risen by 14%, how it complements Financial Times. What follows this crisis is an imminent structural deficit. Mercuria estimates that the market will face a minimum deficit of 2 million tons by the end of the year, an alarming figure if we consider that visible global inventories are barely around one and a half million tons. The West is particularly vulnerable. The United States imported almost 22% of its aluminum from the Middle East last year, while Europe relied on the region for 18.5% of its imports. Safety nets are failing: Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA) has been forced to declare status of “force majeure” in several European contracts after suffering an Iranian attack on its foundry in the United Arab Emirates. Simultaneously, Kubal, the only Swedish foundry (owned by the Russian Rusal), has mysteriously stopped its deliveries in Europefurther straining short-term availability. The “kings” of chaos. This aluminum shock does not occur in a vacuum; It is the symptom of a greater illness. Daniel Yergin, vice president of S&P Global, warned in Bloomberg that we are facing “the biggest energy disruption we have ever seen.” The impact transcends oil, affecting natural gas, fertilizers and metals. Aluminum production is extremely energy intensive, so rising fuel prices are driving up the costs of foundries around the world. However, in a troubled river, fishermen gain. While manufacturers suffer, the giants of commodity trading are making a move. He Financial Times reveals that the Swiss firm Mercuria has begun aggressive expansion, investing more than $3 billion in base metals. In a strategic shift, they have gone from simply financing shipments to purchasing real assets, acquiring 25% of an aluminum smelter in Indonesia. “We have both the appetite and the capacity to do more,” he assured the British newspaper Kostas Bintashead of metals at Mercuria, confirming that the company is firmly committed to this metal in the midst of the chaos. The clock is ticking. The current crisis has mutated, In the words of Yergin to Bloombergin a clash between two blockades: American economic pressure versus Tehran’s ability to “wage war on the world economy”. The paradox is that this energy and logistics bottleneck will end up accelerating the transition to electric vehicles and will force countries to redesign their energy security. But in the short term, reality is stubborn. As the analysis concludes ReutersMiddle Eastern aluminum simply cannot be replaced overnight. China, the world’s largest producer, has a strict legal annual production limit of 45 million tonnes, and neither the United States nor Europe have enough idle capacity they can turn on to salvage the situation. The “black swan” has landed, and the global industry will have to learn to survive in a scenario where aluminum, once abundant, has become a treasure caught in the crossfire. Image | Magnificent Xataka | Iran has pulled out a “trick” to sell to China while avoiding the US: turning the ocean into its secret gas station

The US is doing a lot of damage to Iran with the Hormuz counterblockade. So much so that he is already considering closing oil wells

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Oil has an unbreakable physical law: once it leaves the ground, it has to go somewhere. If ships can’t transport it and storage tanks fill up, the only option is to shut down the wells. Today, the war of attrition between the United States and Iran has ceased to be a mere diplomatic conflict and has become a geological and logistical time bomb. According to data from the analysis firm KplerIran has just 12 to 22 days left before its crude oil storage capacity is completely saturated. The US naval blockade has suffocated its exports by 70%, plummeting shipments from 1.85 million barrels per day to a meager 567,000. A lethal limit. As explained Al Jazeera, Stopping production at an oil well is not like turning off a light switch. When pumping is stopped, the pressure in the underground reservoirs drops sharply, allowing water or gas to seep into the production layers. The potential damage is immense: The Wall Street Journal warns that almost half of the Iranian oil fields are old and low pressure. An abrupt shutdown threatens to permanently destroy part of this aging infrastructure, making recovering that crude oil in the future technically and financially unfeasible. In Washington, the narrative is one of imminent victory. The US administration is confident that this collapse will force Tehran to surrender. According to statements collected by Foreign Policythe US Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessentand President Donald Trump himself predict that the drowning will cause an imminent internal shortage of gasoline, increasing social pressure on the regime until it is forced to give in. However, experts urge caution against Western triumphalism. A rigorous analysis of the Center on Global Energy Policy from Columbia University dismantles part of the myth of catastrophic damage dividing the problem into two fronts: Crude oil can breathe: Specialists detail that the historic oil fields of Khuzestan operate through a “gravity drainage” system. Paradoxically, a temporary stoppage could allow these specific reservoirs to recharge naturally. Natural gas, the true Achilles’ heel: The real risk, the institution explains, lies in the natural gas fields, such as the gigantic South Pars. If these become blocked as they cannot release the associated liquids, Iran will be forced to drastically ration energy for industry and homes in the coming months. Tehran does not plan to give up. According to NDTV, The Islamic Republic will maintain its “diplomacy of patience.” Furthermore, the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) already survived to severe production cuts in 2012 and 2019, and has a robust smuggling network that makes it very resistant to conventional economic pressure. Added to this is the time factor: according to the calculations of Kplerthe real financial blow will take between three and four months to be felt in Iranian coffers, since China – its main client – ​​operates with long delays in payments. The flight forward. To buy time, Iran is resorting to extreme measures. As revealed The Wall Street Journal, The country is reactivating dilapidated infrastructure, known in the sector as “junk storage”, in areas such as Ahvaz and Asaluyeh, and is even trying to export crude oil by train to China; a very slow and very expensive route that shows the level of stress in the system. and in the sea activation of the Nashaa 30-year-old supertanker rescued from scrapping to serve as an emergency floating warehouse. But the most fascinating and opaque strategy is unfolding thousands of miles from the Persian Gulf. As my colleague Miguel Jorge has developed for Xataka, There is a “secret gas station” in the middle of the ocean. This is an area off the coast of Malaysia, known as EOPL, which functions as a huge ghost car park. There, a shadow fleet of aging ships with their tracking systems (AIS) turned off conduct dangerous ship-to-ship crude transfers. With this maneuver they launder the origin of the oil, passing it off as Malaysian to sell it to independent Chinese refineries and evade the radar of US sanctions. The global earthquake. As Iran searches for oxygen, the collateral damage of this blockade is fracturing the global economy and geopolitics. Behind closed doors, the Iranian social collapse is advancing at a steady pace. A crude report of the Financial Times details that real inflation is already close to 50% and the national currency (the rial) sinks to historic lows. The price of basic products such as cheese and chicken has skyrocketed, and the government admits that more than 191,000 workers have applied for unemployment benefits since the start of the war. Globally, the Straits crisis has shattered the mirage of modern logistics. The collapse of Hormuz It’s not a temporary traffic jam.but a tectonic fault that has broken the “just in time” system and is threatening the hegemony of the petrodollar. Markets, panicking over a prolonged disruption, have pushed a barrel of Brent crude above $120, its highest level since 2022. But the most seismic geopolitical consequence of this war has erupted within the oil cartel: the United Arab Emirates (UAE). will leave OPEC+ May 1st. Fed up with production quotas that limited their income and feeling deeply abandoned by their Arab neighbors in the face of direct attacks from Iran, the Emiratis have decided to fly alone. This breakup leaves Saudi Arabia alone bearing the cost of stabilizing the market, greatly weakens OPEC and gives Donald Trump a diplomatic coup that he had been seeking for years. The final pulse. In the end, this conflict has become a drag race in which no one emerges unscathed. The big question that will decide the outcome of the war is who will go bankrupt first: the fragile and antiquated oil wells of Iran and its exhausted population, or the global consumers and the great Western powers, unable to withstand the skyrocketing fuel prices and the collapse of world shipping routes for much longer. And all this happens under inescapable pressure. While political leaders debate and move their chips thousands of kilometers away, the valves of Kharg Island … Read more

A superyacht has just crossed Hormuz before the astonished gaze of the US and Iran. Its flag has confirmed that mines are not for everyone

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In 2019, during one of the highest recent tensions in the Persian Gulf, several marine insurers they raised their premiums so much that some shipowners chose to keep their ships anchored for weeks rather than crossing certain routes considered too dangerous. In parallel, other ships continued sailing with relative normality thanks to apparently minor details such as their registration or the documentation they carried, making it clear that, even in times of greatest uncertainty, not all ships play with the same rules. A strategic step converted into a global funnel. we have been counting. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil normally circulates, has become one of the most tense points of the planet after the outbreak of the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, with traffic plummeting from more than 130 ships daily to just a few dozen and hundreds of ships trapped waiting for safe conditions. The situation has skyrocketed energy prices and generated a domino effect in global trade, while Tehran demands permits to cross and Washington threatens to intercept certain movements. In this scenario, crossing this bottleneck has become an operation fraught with military, legal and economic risks. Or maybe not so much. A superyacht that defies the blockade. Because in the midst of that collapse, he Northa luxury superyacht valued at just over $500 million and linked to the Russian oligarch Alexei Mordashovachieved what very few have achieved in recent weeks: crossing Hormuz from Dubai to Oman without incident. With more than 140 meters in length, several decks, a swimming pool, heliports and even a convertible hangar, its journey not only contrasts with the general paralysis of maritime traffic, but also makes it a striking anomaly in an environment where even large oil companies prefer not to take risks. Your journey, monitored in real timefollowed routes that other ships have used with some type of coordination in the area, although without official confirmation about permits. Alexey Mordashov The invisible key. Possibly the most revealing element of this episode is not in the luxury of the ship, but in how did he get through without being detained or attacked, in a context where any ship can become a target. Everything indicates that he achieved it with a combination of factors: not heading to Iranian ports (which would place it outside the direct focus of the US blockade), sailing through corridors tolerated by Iran and, above all, operating under a diffuse legal structure where the formal property does not entirely coincide with the real one. In other words, in an environment where each movement is interpreted as a political signal, the flag, the chosen route and the legal ambiguity act as a kind of tacit safe conduct that allows one to move between red lines without completely crossing them. Geopolitics, sanctions and alliances in the background. Of course, the journey of North cannot be understood without the political background that surrounds it, marked by the close relationship between Russia and Iran and by the fact that Vladimir Putin maintains a strategic support to Tehran in full escalation with the West. Mordashov, one of the men richest in Russia and sanctioned for the United States and the European Union since the invasion of Ukraine, you have already seen other seized assetswhich has led many oligarchs to move their assets to safer jurisdictions. In this context, the passage of the yacht through Hormuz also becomes a sign of the extent to which certain networks of power and alliances can influence what, in theory, should be a total blockade. A symptom of how conflicts work. Beyond the anecdote, the episode reflects a dynamic increasingly common in contemporary conflicts: while great powers impose restrictions and threats, they always there are gray spaces where specific actors manage to move thanks to combinations of diplomacy, crossed interests and legal loopholes. The fact that a luxury superyacht can cross one of the most dangerous points on the planet in the middle of a crisis, while hundreds of ships remain immobilized and frightened by mines and drones in the surrounding area, illustrates how power is not only measured in military capacity, but also in ability to browse (literally and figuratively) between rules that are not always applied uniformly. Image | POT, Wolfgang Fricke In Xataka | The US resurrected the “right of prey” to capture a ship from China: the problem is that China has taken note In Xataka | Ukraine taught how to use drones. Iran has gone one step further: turning them into a crusher for US radars and bases

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