oil

Spain continues refining oil and, once again, is once again Europe’s energy lifeline

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The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused panic in Asia and set off all the alarms in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). Faced with this global shortage, the Spanish system has done its homework. According to Agency EFEour country’s refineries have made their operations more flexible to maximize the production of petroleum derivatives, backed by a supply of crude oil that, for now, remains secure. Gonzalo Escribano, principal researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute, explains in statements to EFE that Spain has “specialized and better adapted refineries” than most of its neighbors. The contrast is blatant: Italy or Germany made the strategic mistake of closing 20% ​​of their refining capacity in recent years, outsourcing production to the Persian Gulf or to chinese refineries. Today, that decision is taking a historic toll on them. The real crisis is in the derivatives. It is easy to look out the window and think that the energy apocalypse has not arrived because there is still fuel at the gas stations. But it is a logistical mirage, maritime supply lines they move at the speed of a bicycle by the sheer inertia of the gigantic supertankers (VLCC) that were already sailing before the closure. The jam of more than 800 ships in the Gulf has already erased hundreds of millions of barrels from the market, and the real problem facing the world is not the lack of crude oil, but of already processed products. The first sector to suffocate has been aviation, which acts like the canary in the mine. global airlines They are canceling thousands of flights in the face of kerosene that has soared above 170 euros per barrel. At this point, the Spanish Fuel Industry Association (ACIE) corroborates EFE that the current bottleneck is in distillates such as diesel and kerosene. The Spanish lifeguard. By keeping its refineries at maximum performance, our country not only covers its demand, but also establishes itself as a logistics node capable of helping its neighbors. The contrast is abysmal: while the United Kingdom is forced to import 80% of the kerosene that its planes burn, Spain is capable of producing 80% of what it consumes. This not only protects the internal market from shortages, but also positions the peninsula to export the surplus to a thirsty Europe. In a scenario where the barrel maintains a “war premium” that inflates prices, having the final product already processed makes the Spanish plants the great emergency supplier. Those countries that decided to outsource their production of derivatives to Asia today depend on Spanish capacity so that their carriers and airlines do not remain grounded. The strategic “bunker”: the ace up CORES’ sleeve. How is it possible for Spain to hold its own if it imports practically 100% of the crude oil it consumes? The answer lies in our emergency reserves. Spain counts with an autonomy of about 105 dayswell above the 92 required by international law, managed through a mixed system between the industry and the Strategic Reserves Corporation (CORES). But the real “trick” of this bunker is not the quantity, but the quality: more than half (54.4%) of CORES’ reserves are already refined diesel fuel. Even if Saudi Arabia manages to bypass the Hormuz blockade by sending crude oil through its pipelines to the Red Sea, Europe has a serious problem if it does not have enough factories to distill it. By having the refining duties done in advance, the Spanish tanks buy the country more than three months of logistical peace to prevent the trucks from stopping. There is another safe passage: the “green shield” exception. Added to this fossil shielding is the electrical part, a front where Spain plays with a structural advantage. More than 60% of our generation mix It is already renewable, supported by massive solar and wind deployment and a solid hydraulic cushion. In the European electricity system—where the most expensive technology, usually gas, dictates the final price of all electricity—this green park acts as a retaining wall. During the central hours of the day, the massive injection of clean energy manages to sink wholesale market prices, reaching zero or even negative values. This protects us from the brutal gas increases that are suffocating bills in Germany or Italy. In practice, it allows the national industry to maintain a vital respite and a huge competitive advantage during sunny hours, cushioning an economic blow that is devastating manufacturers in the rest of the continent. A life preserver that floats, but is not immune. Spain has become a fortunate energy island, but not by chance. It is the result of not having succumbed to the temptation to dismantle its hydrocarbon infrastructure while, in parallel, investing massively in the transition towards sun and wind. However, it would be a mistake to become complacent. The life jacket floats, but the sea is rougher than ever. Fatih Birol, director of the IEA, has warned that this crisis exceeds those of 1973, 1979 and 2022 combined. And our country is not without cracks: we still lack massive batteries to store our renewable energy (which makes us vulnerable to gas every time it gets dark) and our external dependence on crude oil remains almost absolute. We have gained precious time, but the hyper-connected economy of the 21st century reminds us that when the world slows down, no one is completely unscathed. Image | Gregorio Puga Bailón Xataka | First it was the automotive industry, now Europe is going to lose another of its star industries to China

Volotea begins to charge extra due to the rise in oil prices on its flights. 97% of passengers have agreed to pay it

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More and more airlines are already taking measures to contain the energy chaos that has arisen as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. Although many of them have chosen to cancel a good number of flightsothers have chosen to make their tickets more expensive. One of them has been Volotea. And the Spanish airline has launched a price adjustment policy linked at the cost of fuel which can make the ticket already purchased more expensive up to a week before flying. Crisis in the Middle East. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuzthrough which it passes about 40% of oil consumed by European airlines, has skyrocketed the price of fuel and forced the sector to look for ways to avoid absorbing the blow on their own. Volotea has been the first Spanish airline to transfer this cost to the passenger explicitly and with its own mechanism. What exactly has he done. Since March 16, Volotea has applied what it calls the Fair Travel Promise: seven days before the departure of each flight, the airline consults the market price of fuel in public sources and, if it has increased compared to the time of the reservation, charges the passenger a supplement of up to 14 euros per person per trip. According to they count From 20 Minutes, most surcharges are between 7 and 10 euros. And the adjustment can also work the other way around: if the price of fuel drops, the company returns the difference. What options does the passenger have? The traveler who receives the surcharge notice has a period of 48 hours to decide what to do. You can pay the supplement and continue with your plans, request a full refund of the ticket, or take advantage of the time offered by the airline to modify or cancel the reservation for free up to four hours before takeoff. The company ensures that its customers are aware of this policy before booking, since they must accept it at the time of purchase. The numbers that Volotea manages. According to data from the airline itself, 97% of affected passengers have chosen to pay and keep their trip. The company interprets that percentage as a sign that the measure “is aligned with customer expectations,” in its own words. In addition, it has canceled a small percentage of flights due to higher fuel prices, although it assures that it affects less than 1% of its total schedule. Countermeasures. Not all airlines are acting the same. According to Expansioncompanies such as Air France-KLM, Qantas or Cathay Pacific already apply fuel supplements, while IAG (the group that owns Iberia and British Airways) or Ryanair do not do so at the moment. Groups such as Lufthansa or Ryanair itself have asked the European Union to study a joint purchasing model for kerosene, similar to the one that was launched with gas after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Why can it go further? If the Strait of Hormuz blockade is prolonged, pressure on fuel prices could intensify. The Airports Council International (ACI Europe) and Ryanair already have warned that the problem of cancellations in the industry could worsen if supply suffers. Spain has some margin thanks to its national refining capacity (almost 9.9 million tons of kerosene per year, according to share El Mundo), but it is not a structural solution. Volotea has moved in a different way, and now we wonder if more airlines will join this strategy. Cover image | Dylan Agbagni (Wikipedia) In Xataka | Airlines are becoming more imaginative to save costs: Lufthansa is going to clean economy class less

Behind oil, the US had a much more mundane reason for attacking Iran: pistachios

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Since the United States and Israel struck Iran on February 28, unleashing a war that has lasted more than a month and now hangs on a fragile truce, the world has been attentive to the ups and downs in the price of oil and the traffic of goods such as urea either helium. Logical Your flow has been greatly damaged by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and sectors as important as transportation, agriculture or the technology industry depend on them. There is, however, another commodity that has grabbed much fewer headlines and is equally affected (perhaps even more so) by the war: the pistachio. green gold. No market remains immune to the passage of time, but few have changed as much over the last half century as that of pistachio. If we go back to the 60s, even the 70s, talking about the world pistachio market was talk basically about Iran. The country dominated global trade, placing itself far above from rivals such as the United States or Türkiye. Today the photo is different. Has it changed that much? It comes with looking at the graph above. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), during the 2025/2026 season the US will strengthen its global leadership with 712,700 tons metric, 65% of total production. Iran takes 18% of the pie, followed not so far by Türkiye (11%). These are not current figures, but the new reality. Although the pistachio industry is a business marked by cyclical patterns of its production, its global photo has hardly changed in the last decade: the USA dominates, followed by Iran and Türkiye, which have sometimes reached exchange the second and third position. At the distancefollowed by Syria and the EU, Spain included. It’s the market… and politics. That Iran has lost its global leadership in favor of the United States is hardly a coincidence. Nor is it explained only by reasons of production or pure economics. As I remembered recently analyst Justin Fox in Bloomberg, in reality the US authorities did not begin to bet on pistachio production in California until the middle of the last century. The plantations as such did not arrive until the late 1960s and the first commercial harvest with a certain scope was harvested in 1976. However, the future of the world pistachio market has been influenced by both the geostrategic decisions made in Washington and the work of pistachio farmers in the San Joaquin Valleyin the state of California. Reviewing history. At the end of the 70s, after the overthrow of the Shah and the takeover of the embassy American in Iran, Washington imposed a trade embargo on the country that cleared the way for Californian farmers eager to dominate the national market. The trade penalty was lifted in 1981, but just a few years later the US gave another boost to its industry by applying a tariff of 241% to raw Iranian pistachios in shell. Since then the scenario has become more complicated, but its result is evident: California has become a heavyweight in global production. And with it the US, which surpassed Iran for the first time in the 2004 campaign and has been more than doubling its annual harvest since 2020. “What’s behind that takeoff?” That’s the question Justin Fox asks himself in your analysisin which he slips several ideas: this boom is partly explained by changes in water policies that led American farmers to bet on almonds and pistachios, the advantages of their production during droughts and the boost of Stewart and Lynda Resnickowners of Wonderful Company, a firm that brings together between 15 and 20% of California pistachios and found the key to popularizing the product. And for proof, a button: since the middle of the last decade, per capita consumption in the country has tripled. Beyond the geostrategic value of Iran, its weight in the oil industry or the turbulent relationship with Israel, there are those who have seen the pistachio market as one of the factors that have conditioned the relationship between Washington and Tehran over recent decades. “Hostile relations with Iran seem to have benefited California producers,” says Fox, who recalls that there is even a documentary, ‘Pistachio Wars’which “even hints that pistachio interests are partly responsible for that hostility.” Is it that important? It is estimated that the ‘vede gold’ was the 17th export in terms of value of the US agricultural industry during fiscal year 2025. And it is not unreasonable to think that this position will improve. Both for the growing popularity of pistachio, driven in recent years by the fever of ‘Dubai chocolate’as well as the commitment of US farmers. The New York Times esteem that pistachio orchards have exploded in surface area in the last quarter of a century: from around 100,000 acres in California in 2001, they have grown to more than 600,000. And the war came. At this point the question is obvious… How is the war in Iran affecting the world pistachio market? There are those who believe that the American industry will be one of the best stops. “This war will limit what Iran can make and export to customers in Europe and China,” explains to TNYT Adam Orandi, responsible for a pistachio tree extension in San Joaquín. It is not only about a possible loss of strength of the Islamic Republic in the market, but about the behavior of prices. Orandi is not the only one who has pointed in that direction. In recent weeks other voices have speculated about the benefits that California companies could obtain, especially considering the good estimates of harvest that they handle in the US. Click on the image to go to the tweet. Has the war affected that much? Yes. A few weeks ago Times of India slid and to some of the threats that the war represents for the Iranian pistachio trade: logistical paralysis (conditioned by disturbances in maritime routes), the increase in premiums charged by insurance companies, power … Read more

To survive the end of oil, China has resurrected an old German technology from World War II: turning coal into plastic

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While the world assumes that China’s energy transition is based exclusively on solar panels and electric vehicles — and, in part, it is, consolidating as the first great ‘electrostate’—, reality hides a much darker side. Faced with the outbreak of the Third Gulf War, Beijing has not even flinched. Beyond its immense strategic oil reserves, the secret of its resistance lies in an even more daring maneuver: the resurrection of German technology from World War II. An old German technology. Faced with the instability of oil imports, China has perfected the use of coal to produce petrochemical products. This synthesis technology (historically known as the process of fischer–Tropsch) was originally developed by Germany to sustain its military economy during World War II. Although it is widely known in the chemical industry, its main defect has always been the enormous pollution it generated. China has improved it. Far from settling for an outdated process, Chinese researchers have radically improved it. According to the state agency Xinhuaa team from Peking University has achieved a historic breakthrough by adding a minimal amount of methyl bromide (five parts per million) to the catalytic process. This surgically “turns off” the pathway that forms carbon dioxide as a byproduct, reducing these emissions from 30% to less than 1% and opening the door to near-green manufacturing to convert coal-derived synthesis gas (syngas) into olefins, the building blocks of plastics. At an industrial level, expansion is already a fact. As detailed South China Morning Postin Turpan prefecture (Xinjiang), construction has just begun on the world’s largest coal-to-ethylene glycol (a toxic compound used for plastics and antifreeze) project, with an astonishing capacity of 2.4 million tons per year. Even, as the magazine highlighted ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineeringresearch is being carried out on how to integrate this process (called PFTO) to chemically recycle tons of plastic waste, converting it into syngas and then back into light olefins. Did you see it coming? It is not the first time that China decides to take sides and prevent rather than cure. The Asian giant has decided to completely decouple its industry from maritime vulnerabilities and Western influence. “This is not China’s war, but Beijing began preparing for it years ago,” points out The New York Times. Everything accelerated during Donald Trump’s first term, prompting President Xi Jinping to demand complete “self-sufficiency” that would insulate China from any disruption to foreign supply chains. Time has proven them right. The war in Iran has brutally increased the price of crude oil, suffocating international petrochemical competitors that depend on black gold. In contrast, local Chinese coal has only gotten cheaper. According to Reutersthis has been a financial triumph: shares of companies such as Ningxia Baofeng Energy, which produces millions of tons of chemicals from coal, have risen 30% since the start of the conflict, while traditional Asian refiners such as Rongsheng Petrochemical have lost up to 27% of their stock market value. Furthermore, the Chinese media analyzed by Carbon Brief They insist on a unanimous nationalist message: in the face of a real emergency, coal is the only resource that the nation truly controls, acting as the great “ballast” guarantor of its national security. A change to other sectors. The change is undeniable. As revealed Bloombergthe country’s main coal miner, China Shenhua Energy, has cut its overall budget by 16%, but has almost doubled its investment in coal-to-chemical conversion, from 2.5 billion to 4.1 billion yuan by 2026. But at a devouring pace, as The New York Times provides information that measures the phenomenon: in 2020, China used 155 million tons of coal to manufacture chemicals; by 2024, the figure jumped to 276 million, and in 2025 it grew another 15%, single-handedly exceeding the total annual coal consumption of the entire United States. The research center CREATE confirms this trend in its reportconfirming that the use of coal in the chemical industry grew by 20% year-on-year only in the first half of 2025. Added to this is that, as the American media explains80% of Chinese nitrogen fertilizer (a third of the world’s supply) is already made with coal rather than oil or gas, allowing Beijing to keep its product at less than half the global market price. Behind it there is a very high cost. All this bold industrial maneuver has a severe climate cost that is already setting off international alarms. China’s draft 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) has set extremely cautious climate goals. As the experts explain CREATE and collect Financial Timesthe set goal of reducing carbon intensity by only 17% is “disappointing” and leaves room for the country’s emissions to continue growing between 3% and 6% in real terms over the next five years. This new government plan de facto reverses the international promise to “phase down” coal consumption, replacing it with a consumption “plateau” and explicitly protecting the large-scale expansion of the coal-based petrochemical industry. Only chemical projects already planned to be built between now and 2029 could increase China’s annual carbon dioxide emissions by an additional 2%. The forecasts are resounding. According to Bloomberg, By 2030, China’s chemical roadmap will massively stop using oil as a primary fuel (thanks to the adoption of its electric vehicles) and will take advantage of its modernized facilities to seek 85% self-sufficiency in all advanced materials and chemicals, displacing traditional giants. A feared crisis of overcapacity. The European ideas laboratory MERICS warns of collateral consequences: The Chinese domestic economy, with consumer confidence stagnant since the pandemic, has no way to absorb all this gigantic new production of materials and plastics. As a direct result, Chinese factories are forced to export their immense surpluses to the rest of the world at fire sale prices. This aggressive price war propelled China’s trade surplus to a stratospheric record of $1.2 trillion in 2025. According to the complaint MERICSthese massive exports are cannibalizing the industrial base of other nations; In the European Union alone, up to 500 manufacturing jobs are being lost daily due to the total … Read more

Europe already has its recommendations for the latest oil crisis

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15 years later, the idea of ​​limiting the speed to 110 km/h is floating in the air again. It comes from the European Commission, an organization that has indicated what measures it recommends to countries to save fuel with a letter. It includes 10 measures that touch on all types of issues in our economic and social life. These are those aimed at mobility. What has happened? That the European Commission, through Dan Jorgensen, Commissioner for Energy, has sent a letter to the 27 with recommendations to save oil in the face of the crisis that we are already experiencing and the possibility of it extending over time, according to media such as The World either The Country. The decalogue is based on the recommendations made by the International Energy Agency, but Jorgensen has already pointed out in the press conference after the announcement that there is no general recipe for all member countries of the European Union, so it is up to each one what to apply. At 110 km/h. Perhaps one of the measures that draws the most attention to Spaniards is the 10 km/h reduction in speed. It is a measure that The Government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero already applied it in 2011. That barely lasted a few months (from March 7 to July 1) and the reason was the crisis derived from the Arab springs with which the price of crude oil rose. In those days, the Brent Barrel had also exceeded $100 per unit. When the project was presented, the expected savings for one year were 1.4 billion euros and gasoline and diesel consumption was 15 and 11% lower. The measure was lifted by encrypting savings of 450 million euros During the months that the plan was active and the fuel savings were 11.4% in the case of gasoline and 7.7% in the case of diesel. Given the enormous variety of models with combustion engines, it is impossible to establish a specific saving figure by reducing speed by 10 km/h. This is certain to happen since fuel consumption increases exponentially at higher speeds if you drive in the highest possible gear. The DGT points out Driving at 110 km/h leads to savings of almost 9% in a gasoline car and around 6.5% if we talk about a diesel car. Today yes, tomorrow no. Another of the measures announced by the European Commission that governments can apply is to limit entry to cities based on the license plate number. The idea is to use the car on alternate days to get around, a measure that would boost the use of public transport and would be accompanied by the demand from Europe that teleworking be prioritized to avoid commuting. This solution has generally been applied to improve pollution rates. They are common in countries more polluted than ours. In Mexico, for example, they apply the Not Circulating Today in which the license plate number is taken into account to allow or disallow the circulation of cars. Also in countries like China it has been applied. In our country, the most famous case was that of Madrid, which with The Government of Manuela Carmena applied this protocol in 2016. The measures, in fact, are still considered to reduce pollution in the city but they have not been applied again. Flights, the fewer the better. The Energy Commissioner has also referred to flights. According to Jorgensen, we should “avoid air travel when alternatives exist” and it has been clear with who the main ones are: “reducing business flights can quickly relieve pressure on the aviation fuel market,” they state in The World. It must be taken into account that Europe has been working for a long time in reducing short-term flights, especially those lasting less than two hours, and replacing them with train travel. In fact, the commitment to connect European capitals It is a determined commitment by the Commission. Lisbon-Madrid is a good example of this. It is expected to be long. In addition to the European recommendations, it must be taken into account that Europe is releasing its oil reserves with the aim of containing fuel prices. Our country alone has released 11.5 million barrels of oil from its energy reserves. However, the crisis is expected to be long. The accounts suggest that the world is already facing a daily deficit of 8 million barrels. Oil at $200 a barrel begins to appear on the horizon. Media like Financial Times They warn that we are facing a crisis similar to that of the 70s. And Repsol already warns– Releasing oil reserves is a temporary patch. Photo | Tim D. and Rafael Garcin In Xataka | There is a silent war between “premium” and low-cost gas stations: and the most unexpected side is losing it

The world trembles over Hormuz oil while ignoring what feeds 50% of the planet

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Geopolitics has a curious tendency to make us focus our attention on a specific point and not look at everything around us. With the scale of the tension in the Strait of Hormuzall eyes were on crude oil and the price of gasoline; However, experts warn that fertilizers are also in the spotlight. And the reality is that its collapse can cause a lack of food in our crops, since the vast majority depend on it. An invisible engine. Although the world seems to have forgotten about the fertilizers that arrive through the Strait of Hormuz, the reality is that we can affirm that humanity cannot exist without organic chemistry. And it is no wonder, because more than half of the food produced worldwide is available thanks to mineral fertilizers, as the IFDC points out. If we go further, the studies point out that nitrogen fertilizers Synthetics sustain the diet of almost half of the world’s population. And the worst of all is that, without this mineral contribution, global harvests will be directly reduced by half, so we are not talking about a product that improves performance marginally, but rather we are talking about the pillar of a food system that supports 8 billion people. A bottleneck. In this context of absolute dependence, the media focus is paradoxical. International attention and logistical surveillance focus almost exclusively on fossil fuels, ignoring the fact that fertilizers are a highly concentrated industry and closely linked to natural gas. But organizations like UNCTAD and media like EFE they have put figures to disaster by estimating that a third of global maritime fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This means that logistical interruptions in the Persian Gulf directly affect millions of tons of agricultural inputs, which for the UN It is undoubtedly a major impact on global food security. There are no reservations. In recent weeks we have seen how different governments have announced with great fanfare the release of thousands of barrels of oil in national reserves. A strategy that has been built in recent years to be able to cushion this type of geopolitical shocks, but with fertilizers there is no such thing. It has consequences. The analyzes of the experts point out in this case that the interruption of the fertilizer chain has a full impact on the field, since any interruption has a full impact on the bank. Here both the FAO and the World Bank They have been warning for months that the suspension of shipments from the Gulf can skyrocket food prices almost instantly, severely affecting countries that depend on food imports. But the problem is that right now there is a significant lack of infrastructure, since we are seeing that the sector is dominated by a few players such as Russia, China, India and the United States. This, added to the shortage of long-term storage networks, makes us think that the price of food may suffer a large increase in the coming weeks, as well as have a bad harvest of 2026. Measures to alleviate it. The Government of Spain recently approved a new text that, in addition to lower energy-related taxesalso opted to inject money into the primary sector. In this case, direct aid was offered to partially compensate for this increase in fertilizers with the aim of ensuring that the increase was not transferred entirely to the shopping basket. Images | James Baltz Jonathan Cooper In Xataka | You’ve probably never heard of urea. The missiles in Iran are destroying their production, and that will affect your food

The damage to the oil and gas industry will take years to repair

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The Third Gulf War is here, and while financial markets cling to the hope of a quick resolution, the physical reality tells a much darker story. The world is currently facing the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market. As detailed The New York Timesbased on the analyzes of energy expert Jason Bordoff, the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has taken about 20 million barrels per day off the board, which represents 20% of world consumption. To put this in perspective, the International Energy Agency (IEA) recalls that the historic Arab embargo of 1973 “barely” withdrew 4.5 million barrels per day. The logistical, political and infrastructure damage that Operation Epic Fury has unleashed in the Persian Gulf is so profound that, regardless of what is signed in the dispatches, it will take years to return to normality. The new global funnel. Even if the war ended today and the Strait were 100% reopened, untangling the monumental logjam would take months. As Rory Johnston, oil market researcher, explains, to the magazine New Statesman“we are talking about two to three months just to renormalize the global system.” Oil tankers are piled up on both sides of the strait, and a sudden restart would cause a collapse at unloading terminals, reminiscent of the worst bottlenecks of the Covid-19 pandemic. It won’t be suddenly. To this we must add a key factor: the ships will not sail again the day peace is signed. Maritime insurers will require months of proof that the Strait is safe before returning to cover oil tankers without imposing unaffordable premiums. But the situation is even more complex. As detailed in a recent analysis by my colleague Miguel Jorge in Xatakathe dynamics of the Strait have drastically mutated. Iran has turned this artery into a kind of maritime “VIP discotheque.” It is no longer a free international transit route, but rather a selective access system where Tehran decides who passes. While US allies and Israel are banned, countries like Spain – which refused to participate in the military coalition – have received “passes” for their ships. The root of the problem. If the recovery will be so slow it is, fundamentally, because the infrastructure is burning. Unlike previous conflicts, Iran’s strategy is based on an asymmetric war that seeks to destroy the energy pillars of its neighbors. The most devastating example is found in Qatar, where the Iranian drone attack on the Ras Laffan facilities—the largest Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export plant in the world— has caused damage which will take between three and five years to repair. Furthermore, we must add temporary closures in Saudi refineries like Ras Tanura that guarantee long-term disruption. The domino effect has already reached the earth. Given the impossibility of removing the crude oil by sea, the storage tanks are bursting. Iraq has been forced to close wells and cut production by 70% simply because there is nowhere to put the oil. This is what is known in the industry as “locked-in” oil, and reactivating all that stopped machinery requires weeks of complex technical work. The specter of chronic inflation. The impact of this paralysis goes far beyond the gasoline pump and will condition the economy for the next five years. As he warns The Economistthe sustained rise in energy prices threatens to entrench global inflation, quickly pushing it to an unbearable 5% or 6%. This means that the cost of living, interest rates and commodity prices will be marked by this crisis for years, slowing down any attempt at real recovery. Added to this is a silent time bomb: food. Not only crude oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz, but a third of the world’s fertilizers. If global agriculture runs out of this vital input, we face a global food crisis that will distort harvests and supermarket prices in the coming seasons. On the threshold of $200 per barrel. If the blockade persists, economic pain will be inevitable. Macquarie Group analysts warn in Bloomberg that if the conflict extends until June, the price of crude oil could reach a whopping 200 dollars. The objective of this extreme price is none other than to force the “demand destruction“: that it be so expensive that people and industries simply stop consuming. The most pessimistic voices warn of an economic catastrophe. Larry Fink, the CEO of the financial giant BlackRock, warned in an interview with the BBC that if the barrel settles at $150, the world will plunge into a “severe and deep recession.” And the consequences are already visible, as jet fuel in Asia has already exceeded $200. Meanwhile, magazines as Fortune report that Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a recession in the US to 30%. The Wall Street mirage and useless patches. It is fascinating and terrifying to observe the disconnection between physical reality and financial markets. Wall Street lives “spellbound” by algorithms and verbal intervention (jawboning) by Donald Trump. All it takes is a tweet from the American president announcing vague peace plans—quickly denied by Iran—for the stock markets to rise and the price of a barrel to drop momentarily. Investors blindly trust the phenomenon WAD (“Trump Always Chickens Out”), believing that the president will back down before sinking the economy. But tweets don’t fill the tanks. To try to mitigate the blow, the International Energy Agency has coordinated the historic release of 400 million barrels of its strategic reserves. It sounds like a lot, but as the experts consulted by Al Jazeerathat amount barely covers 20 days of the oil that has stopped flowing through Hormuz. It’s a band-aid for an arterial bleed. In fact, such is the desperation of the West that the US administration has gone so far as to temporarily lift sanctions on Russiaallowing it to sell its crude oil on the open market in order to try to relieve the pumps. The big silent winner. While the West is suffocating with inflation and supply problems, just a few … Read more

The biggest oil crisis is not making them blink for a second in the stock market

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We have been immersed in what can now be cataloged like the Third Gulf War. Since the United States and Israel offensive against Iran began at the end of February, the world has faced the greatest disruption of energy supply of its history. We are talking about a crisis that has paralyzed 20% of the world’s crude oil, sequestering about 20 million barrels a day They cannot cross the Strait of Hormuz. Missile falls, drones setting fire to infrastructure and thousands of deaths in the region. The impasse. Any basic economics textbook would dictate that financial markets should be in complete panic. However, the opposite occurs. It is enough for the White House to hint at a rapprochement or a vague ceasefire for the stock market to skyrocket, ignoring the physical fundamentals of a war in full swing. Wall Street lives in a parallel reality: the biggest oil crisis does not make them blink for a second. A virtual collapse in the face of a real war. This same week, the markets experienced 48 hours of unprecedented volatility. As detailed oil priceoil prices fell sharply in the Asian session on Wednesday, falling more than 5%. Brent crude oil, the reference in Europe, pierced downwards the psychological barrier of $100, while the US WTI fell to $87.51. The reason for this relief? According to the agency Reutersthe United States would have sent a 15-point peace proposal to Iran through intermediaries in Pakistan. US President Donald Trump boasted to the media that “productive” negotiations were moving toward a resolution. The screens of the traders were automatically dyed green: the European STOXX 600 index rose 1.2% and London’s FTSE 100 rose 1.1%. As Amelie Derambure explainedfrom the manager Amundi, the market simply launched itself to buy the idea of ​​a relief rally (a surge of relief) at the possibility of a temporary ceasefire. The bombs keep falling. However, there is no ceasefire; This should be clear. How to collect ReutersEbrahim Zolfaqari, spokesman for Iran’s joint military command, publicly addressed Trump on state television with these words: “Has the level of your internal struggle reached the stage of negotiating with yourself? We will never make a deal with you.” At the same time, military reality contradicts stock market optimism. The Pentagon prepares the deployment of elements of the 82nd Airborne Division to the region, a drone attack just hit a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport, and Israel is deeply skeptical of any concessions Washington might make to Tehran in the shadows. Investors “bewitched” by the algorithm. To understand this disconnection you have to delve into the psychology of the market. An analysis published by FortunePaul Donovan, chief economist of UBSclaims that Wall Street is “spellbound” by the good news. “Markets do not react to information, they generally react to social media posts and headlines, even if they are fake news or contradictory,” says Donovan. Investors suffer from a cocktail of loss aversion and confirmation bias. They desperately want the war to end, so they embrace any story that confirms that desire and ignore negative news. Added to this, the “TACO” phenomenon (Trump Always Chickens Outor “Trump always cows”), a belief rooted in the New York trading floor that the tenant of the White House will end up backing down from the economic pain of a prolonged conflict to protect financial stability. Narrative as a weapon of war. Added to this is what energy expert Javier Blas defines in his column Bloomberg as jawboning (verbal intervention). The White House is winning the narrative battle in the markets without moving a single physical barrel. Trump’s constant messages in Social Truth promising a quick resolution—and even lifting sanctions on countries like Russia to flood the market—have managed to stop the panic. Blas sums it up perfectly: “Instead of being a sign of weakness, TACO is playing in Trump’s favor. No one knows for sure when or if he will try to end the war, which has been enough to prevent the traders skyrocket the price of oil.” The desperation to cling to any positive headline is such that it generates episodes of extreme volatility and information chaos. He Financial Times reported in his coverage how crude oil suffered wild fluctuations (Brent fell 11% to rebound shortly after) after a tweet by the US Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, stating that the Navy was already escorting oil tankers through Hormuz. The message was deleted minutes later and denied by the White House itself, but the effect on the algorithms had already occurred. The bath of physical reality. While Wall Street plays a game of guessing the next tweets from the Oval Office, the physical reality of oil is stubborn. A report from Bloomberg puts his finger on the sore: The physical market continues to deal with shortages, and the war has demonstrated the absolute control that Iran exercises over the Strait of Hormuz. Although Tehran informed the International Maritime Organization that “non-hostile” ships can transit, the route remains effectively closed and reports circulate about the presence of dozens of naval mines Iranians in the area. The mathematics of disaster, detailed by Reutersthey are chilling. After 25 days of conflict, the world has stopped receiving 500 million barrels (the equivalent of five full days of global supply). The logistical desperation is such that Saudi Arabia has boosted its exports from the port of Yanbu, on the Red Sea, to avoid Hormuz. To compound the crisis, Russia has suspended cargoes at its Baltic ports following a vicious Ukrainian drone attack, adding more uncertainty to the global market. Larry Fink, CEO of the management company BlackRocksummed it up bluntly in statements to the BBC: “If Iran continues to be a threat to Hormuz and oil settles between $100 and $150 per barrel, we will have a global recession.” Collateral damage. The narrative chaos has even reached gold, which has lost their protection status. According to Financial Timesthe price of the precious metal has plummeted 16% since the start of … Read more

The United Kingdom has just detained a Russian oil tanker in Gibraltar. The problem is the possibility that they are armed

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Spain controls one of the busiest maritime passages on the planet: for the Strait of Gibraltar More than 100,000 ships cross each year, including thousands of oil tankers. Just a few kilometers from its coasts, a good part of the crude oil that feeds Europe circulates, and any alteration in that flow has a direct impact on the Spanish economy, from the price of energy to maritime security. From sanctions to interceptions. What for months was a silent economic war you have just crossed a new visible line. The Royal Navy no longer limits itself to observing Russian maritime traffic, it now follows it, identifies it and makes it easier to approach. The case of the MV Deyna oil tanker in Gibraltar mark that change. It is not an isolated incident, it is the symptom of a strategy that is beginning to materialize at sea. And in this turn there is a key detail: for the first time, the pressure on the shadow fleet stops being just legal or financial and becomes operational. The fleet in the shadows. Russia has built a network of hundreds of opaque tankers to continue selling crude oil despite the sanctions. This includes everything from old ships to constant flag changes or business structures that are difficult to trace. All designed for keep the flow of income that fuels its war economy. This network has been for years difficult to attack because it operates on the margins of international law. But now that margin is narrowing, and every interception at key points like Gibraltar points directly to a critical vulnerability of the Russian system. HMS Cutlass stopped the tanker Gibraltar and the bottleneck. The strait, furthermore, is not just any place. As we said at the beginning, it is one of the most guarded maritime crossings on the planet. and convert it at pressure point against Russian oil has a clear logic: controlling traffic is controlling business. HMS Cutlass operations near France show that NATO is willing to use intelligencesurveillance and naval presence to stop this flow. If you will, each intervention sends a message that goes beyond the specific ship, one that announces that it is no longer safe to operate in the shadows near Europe. The problem. It turns out that this is where the story really changes. Because Russia not only wants to protect its fleet, it is considering doing so with military means. Armed patrols, fire equipment on board and even the possibility of militarizing the tankers themselves. What until now were civil ships with economic functions could be transformed into platforms with defensive capacity. And that turns any approach or follow-up into an operation with a real risk of escalation, where an inspection can turn into an armed incident. From drones to oil tankers. Ukrainian naval drone attacks against Russian ships have been the trigger of this change. They have shown that even large maritime assets are vulnerable, and Russia has responded hardening his stance and preparing an active defense. This connects directly with the current global scenario, where energy transportation has become in strategic objective. The sea, which for decades was a relatively stable highway, is beginning to look more and more like a diffuse war front. The domino effect. The paradox is quite evident. While the West try to cut Russia’s revenues, the war in the Middle East has put Moscow’s crude oil back to the center of the market global, with India and China absorbing shipments that previously found no buyer and prices rising higher and higher. And meanwhile the shadow fleet returns to be indispensable. That makes any try to stop it have global consequences, turning each interception into more than just a naval operation: a piece in a much larger battle for control of the global energy flow. A new red line. If you like, the final scenario is the most uncomfortable and dangerous. A Russian tanker detained in Gibraltar It is no longer just a sanctioned ship, it may be the first link in a chain of tensions that escalate rapidly. Because if those ships start to go armedeach interaction at sea stops being administrative and becomes potentially military. And at that point, the question stops being whether the shadow fleet can continue operating, and becomes what will happen the day someone shoots first. Image | kees torn In Xataka | The Canary Islands and Galicia have set off the Navy’s alarm bells. Russia’s ghost fleet has arrived in Spain with warships In Xataka | A ghost fleet has mapped the entire underwater structure of the EU. The question is what Moscow is going to do with that information.

The most unexpected blow of the Iran war is not the price of oil. It’s the one with the chips

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The Strait of Hormuz does not manufacture semiconductors or host data centers. However, its closure effective March 4 threatens to destabilize the heart of the global technology economy. Taiwan, which through TSMC manufactures around 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, runs on imported energy, and a large part of it flowed through that strait. The connection between a conflict in the Middle East and the price of a GPU It is not metaphorical. It is totally physical. Why is it important. What Trump has described as a “minor excursion” began on February 28 as a military intervention against the Iranian leadership and has led to the almost total closure of the passage that connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean. 20% of the world’s natural gas and 25% of the global oil usually pass through there. Now, practically nothing happens. Between the lines. The problem for the chip industry is not oil, but two much less visible resources: The LNG. The Middle East supplies 37% of the fuel that powers the Taiwanese electrical grid, and that electricity is what TSMC’s factories consume with an energy hunger that demands continuous supply. And helium, which is even more delicate: it is essential in the process of photolithography and has no viable substitute. Taiwan only has LNG reserves for 11 days without external imports. South Korea has 52; Japan, three weeks. The contrast. South Korea and Japan have been building energy security buffers for years precisely because they know how much they depend on abroad. Taiwan, on the other hand, has historically prioritized cost over resilience: its LNG storage capacity is much lower than that of its neighbors, and that is now taking its toll. It’s not just a matter of reserve days. The thing is that Samsung and SK Hynix operate in a country with more robust emergency infrastructure, while TSMC, the company on which practically the entire global technological ecosystem depends, turns out to be the most exposed of all. Yes, but. Companies are not sitting idly by: TSMC has secured LNG supplies until mid-May. As for helium, Australia and the United States have the capacity to partially compensate for Qatar’s decline. Morgan Stanley estimates that several additional shipments are already heading to the islandalthough Taiwan has probably paid a notable premium for them. That premium will most likely translate into a price increase. The big question. The real risk is not the immediate cut, but how long this lasts. Consumers expecting GPUs for gaming They will be the last in line. In Xataka | Chinese airlines are the only ones still flying over Russia. And that is why they are the winners of the Iran crisis Featured image | Xataka

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