oil

The oil reserves of the main powers, in a graph that summarizes how well China is doing

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Since the Strait of Hormuz was closed On February 28, after the offensive by the United States and Israel, the world as we know it hangs by a thread: going to a gas station to refuel, catching a flight or simply filling the refrigerator are mundane actions at risk, although at the moment what we have noticed the most is that prices go up and flight cancellations. The threat of running out of oil is getting closer. Oil is not just energy: having oil means having more time in the face of an energy crisis. The question is: how many days can an economy function without a single new barrel entering its borders? Well, it depends on two factors: how much you have stored and how you manage it. A few days ago the United States Energy Information Administration answered that question in the form of graphic for some of the world’s major powers. The result is uncomfortable and summarizes very well that China has done its homework. The EIA analysis shows oil inventories in December 2025, that is, just before the game began. We insist: it is not just the barrels that remain, it is a map that reveals who has room to hold out. That the Strait of Hormuz is closed It doesn’t affect everyone the same.. In March 2026, the United States and other IEA members they agreed a coordinated emergency release of reserves after the closure because approximately 20% of the world’s oil passes through that redoubt of a few kilometers. But the exposure to the shock is totally asymmetrical: while Europe and East Asia import massively from the Persian Gulf, the United States has record domestic production (13.6 million barrels per day) that drastically reduces your dependency. Although China appears at the top as the outstanding leader, paradoxically it is the most exposed in volume, but also the best prepared in reserves: it has room to withstand months of supply cuts. On the other side of the coin is Europe, the most vulnerable to this situation: its reserves are noticeably smaller and its own production is residual. Which countries are most and least prepared for the closure of Hormuz Inventory of crude oil reserves in some specific countries. EIA. December 2025 During 2025, China accumulated an average of 1.1 million barrels per day, reaching almost 1.4 billion barrels. To put it on scale, it is more than triple what the United States stores in its strategic oil reserve (1,397 compared to 413). And it has done so quietly: China does not publish official data on its inventories, so the EIA estimates them by crossing imports, exports and data from third parties such as Vortexa, Kpler and Kayrros. As collects Reuterssince 2024, Chinese national companies add emergency oil to commercial reserves following government instructions. In short: they have a second strategic layer, logistics deliberately designed to endure in situations of blockade, sanctions or conflicts. China has made good use of cheap sanctioned Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan oil to fill its deposits at bargain prices, according to a report from the US Congressional Committee. Estimated crude oil inventories of China and the United States in December 2025. EIA Although the United States strategic reserve has capacity for 714 million barrels, at the end of last year it barely had just over 400, its lowest level in decades, after large sales in 2022 and 2023. The explanation is that the United States used its reserve to mitigate inflation after the war in Ukraine and has not yet recovered. That is to say, America’s room for maneuver has been reduced and with reserves at 58% and the Strait of Hormuz closed, it is at its lowest levels since the early 1980s, when the SPR was still in the process of filling. If there is a phrase to define the situation of the old continent, it is that Europe is hanging by a thread. OECD Europe held just 179 million barrels in government inventories as of December 2025, a structurally weak figure for a bloc that imports more than 97% of the oil it consumes. That Europe is dependent on oil is not a surprise, but with the closure of Hormuz the need to change this reality is urgent. He underlying problem in Europe is fragmentation: each member state manages its own reserves under the minimum framework of 90 days of demand required by the IEA, but without a common European strategic reserve. So in the face of a severe crisis, the response comes disseminated and not unified. Japan takes bronze, with 263 million barrels accumulated in government reserves. However, what is most striking is its legal architecture: the Petroleum Storage Law Japan forces private industry to maintain 70 days of demand (about 220 million additional barrels) over the government’s 90 days. A public and private double layer system that makes Japan the most robust system per capita. Finally, Japan participates in the international joint storage system: the EIA excludes from its calculation the international joint storage inventories that Japan maintains outside its borders. That is to say, the real figure of Japanese access to crude oil in an emergency scenario is higher than what the graph says. In Xataka | After gasification plants and renewables, Spain has another energy lifeline for Europe: oil refineries In Xataka | The world’s rare earth reserves, laid out in this graph showing the brutal dominance of a single country Cover | EIA

The US is doing a lot of damage to Iran with the Hormuz counterblockade. So much so that he is already considering closing oil wells

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Oil has an unbreakable physical law: once it leaves the ground, it has to go somewhere. If ships can’t transport it and storage tanks fill up, the only option is to shut down the wells. Today, the war of attrition between the United States and Iran has ceased to be a mere diplomatic conflict and has become a geological and logistical time bomb. According to data from the analysis firm KplerIran has just 12 to 22 days left before its crude oil storage capacity is completely saturated. The US naval blockade has suffocated its exports by 70%, plummeting shipments from 1.85 million barrels per day to a meager 567,000. A lethal limit. As explained Al Jazeera, Stopping production at an oil well is not like turning off a light switch. When pumping is stopped, the pressure in the underground reservoirs drops sharply, allowing water or gas to seep into the production layers. The potential damage is immense: The Wall Street Journal warns that almost half of the Iranian oil fields are old and low pressure. An abrupt shutdown threatens to permanently destroy part of this aging infrastructure, making recovering that crude oil in the future technically and financially unfeasible. In Washington, the narrative is one of imminent victory. The US administration is confident that this collapse will force Tehran to surrender. According to statements collected by Foreign Policythe US Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessentand President Donald Trump himself predict that the drowning will cause an imminent internal shortage of gasoline, increasing social pressure on the regime until it is forced to give in. However, experts urge caution against Western triumphalism. A rigorous analysis of the Center on Global Energy Policy from Columbia University dismantles part of the myth of catastrophic damage dividing the problem into two fronts: Crude oil can breathe: Specialists detail that the historic oil fields of Khuzestan operate through a “gravity drainage” system. Paradoxically, a temporary stoppage could allow these specific reservoirs to recharge naturally. Natural gas, the true Achilles’ heel: The real risk, the institution explains, lies in the natural gas fields, such as the gigantic South Pars. If these become blocked as they cannot release the associated liquids, Iran will be forced to drastically ration energy for industry and homes in the coming months. Tehran does not plan to give up. According to NDTV, The Islamic Republic will maintain its “diplomacy of patience.” Furthermore, the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) already survived to severe production cuts in 2012 and 2019, and has a robust smuggling network that makes it very resistant to conventional economic pressure. Added to this is the time factor: according to the calculations of Kplerthe real financial blow will take between three and four months to be felt in Iranian coffers, since China – its main client – ​​operates with long delays in payments. The flight forward. To buy time, Iran is resorting to extreme measures. As revealed The Wall Street Journal, The country is reactivating dilapidated infrastructure, known in the sector as “junk storage”, in areas such as Ahvaz and Asaluyeh, and is even trying to export crude oil by train to China; a very slow and very expensive route that shows the level of stress in the system. and in the sea activation of the Nashaa 30-year-old supertanker rescued from scrapping to serve as an emergency floating warehouse. But the most fascinating and opaque strategy is unfolding thousands of miles from the Persian Gulf. As my colleague Miguel Jorge has developed for Xataka, There is a “secret gas station” in the middle of the ocean. This is an area off the coast of Malaysia, known as EOPL, which functions as a huge ghost car park. There, a shadow fleet of aging ships with their tracking systems (AIS) turned off conduct dangerous ship-to-ship crude transfers. With this maneuver they launder the origin of the oil, passing it off as Malaysian to sell it to independent Chinese refineries and evade the radar of US sanctions. The global earthquake. As Iran searches for oxygen, the collateral damage of this blockade is fracturing the global economy and geopolitics. Behind closed doors, the Iranian social collapse is advancing at a steady pace. A crude report of the Financial Times details that real inflation is already close to 50% and the national currency (the rial) sinks to historic lows. The price of basic products such as cheese and chicken has skyrocketed, and the government admits that more than 191,000 workers have applied for unemployment benefits since the start of the war. Globally, the Straits crisis has shattered the mirage of modern logistics. The collapse of Hormuz It’s not a temporary traffic jam.but a tectonic fault that has broken the “just in time” system and is threatening the hegemony of the petrodollar. Markets, panicking over a prolonged disruption, have pushed a barrel of Brent crude above $120, its highest level since 2022. But the most seismic geopolitical consequence of this war has erupted within the oil cartel: the United Arab Emirates (UAE). will leave OPEC+ May 1st. Fed up with production quotas that limited their income and feeling deeply abandoned by their Arab neighbors in the face of direct attacks from Iran, the Emiratis have decided to fly alone. This breakup leaves Saudi Arabia alone bearing the cost of stabilizing the market, greatly weakens OPEC and gives Donald Trump a diplomatic coup that he had been seeking for years. The final pulse. In the end, this conflict has become a drag race in which no one emerges unscathed. The big question that will decide the outcome of the war is who will go bankrupt first: the fragile and antiquated oil wells of Iran and its exhausted population, or the global consumers and the great Western powers, unable to withstand the skyrocketing fuel prices and the collapse of world shipping routes for much longer. And all this happens under inescapable pressure. While political leaders debate and move their chips thousands of kilometers away, the valves of Kharg Island … Read more

The banks didn’t want anything to do with oil. Wall Street has solved it with the 2008 mortgage strategy

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Oil and gas producers in the United States are turning to the financial magic of Wall Street to fuel their acquisitions in a frenetic race for growth. To achieve this, they are packaging thousands of pots into investment vehicles and selling stakes to American investors, replicating the exact same model that has long been used for mortgages, auto loans and other sources of securitized income. Away from the spotlight, the number of these operations has grown rapidly in recent years. Industry experts consulted by Financial Times They estimate that the total amount of debt issued through this format already ranges between 20,000 and 30,000 million dollars. It is a fundamentally opaque market, where most transactions are closed privately. Historically, independent oil and gas producers financed its operations through loans reserve-based (RBL) and high-yield debt. However, the situation has changed drastically. Some commercial banks have reduced their exposure to the extractive sector to meet their sustainability strategies under environmental, social and governance (ESG) policies, or in response to public concern over climate change. Added to this is the fear of traditional investors of “stranded assets” and the general uncertainty about the long-term viability of the sector in the midst of the energy transition. In addition, rising interest rates have raised costs, making high-yield debt too expensive or inaccessible for many producers. To survive, companies They have found an alternative way: They transfer their mature wells, known as proven, developed and producing (PDP) reserves, to a newly created Special Purpose Entity (SPE). This entity operates independently and is structured to be “bankruptcy-remote”, ensuring that the transferred assets are completely separate from the balance sheet of the producing company and safe in the event of its bankruptcy. Attracting conservative money By isolating these high-quality assets, the bonds issued by the SPE manage to achieve an “investment grade” rating. This seal of quality attracts a new class of investors who would normally avoid oil risk: pension funds, insurance companies and large asset managers looking for structured financial products with stable returns. For the oil companies, business is great. The securitization allows them to obtain advance rates (advance rates) of between 55% and 75% of the value of the reserves, figures significantly higher than those available in traditional RBL loans. To convince credit rating agencies, the secret lies in diversification and insurance. On the one hand, thousands of assets are grouped together; for example, Raisa Energy closed an operation combining more than 3,000 wells operated by more than 50 companies in more than 20 counties. On the other hand, long-term hedges are contracted to protect investors from oil fluctuations, reaching up to 85% of the entity’s production for a period of five to seven years. The “time bomb” and the cracks in private credit But financial engineering sometimes hides structural cracks. Brandon Davis, founder of energy intelligence company AFE Leaks, describes in FT These price hedges act as a “ticking time bomb” in case other production costs increase. If the price of oil rises, the company’s income is capped because the difference goes to the hedging counterparty (usually a bank). However, if at the same time there is inflation in operating costs, such as field services or water treatment, the profit margin backing the bonds could be seriously eroded. The cracks in this engineering are not an isolated case in the energy sector, but a symptom of a greater malaise in the opaque world of private credit on Wall Street, where patience (and money) is beginning to run out. This risk is framed at a time of growing tension for the entire private credit ecosystem on Wall Street. Investors are starting to demand their money back. In Cliffwater’s $33 billion fund, clients requested to withdraw 14% of their capital in a single quarter, but the firm said it only I would pay around 50% of those requests, forcing the other half to wait. If the panic spreads, traditional banks will not escape unscathed either. Lending by US banks to non-depository financial institutions, which includes private credit, reached 1.2 trillion dollars in the middle of last year, almost tripling its share compared to a decade ago. Furthermore, as with oil wells, the securitization market as a whole is extremely sensitive to external regulatory or macroeconomic shocks. A clear example occurred recently in another sector: Mpower Financing had to postpone the sale of almost $250 million in bonds backed by loans to international students. The cause was investors’ fear of the new restrictive visa policies of the Donald Trump administration. If regulatory changes or geopolitical crises hit the energy sector unexpectedly, oil securitization could face a similar collapse in demand. The danger of forgetting the nature of the business Wall Street has packaged a high-risk industry into a tame-looking product, but geology and the global market are difficult to tame. “The trick has always been to convince the rating agencies that measures have been put in place to mitigate the risk,” warns Olivier Darmounieconomist specialized in credit markets at HEC Paris. “But that’s the inherent thing about oil and gas, it’s an inherently volatile business.” Darmouni points out the ultimate risk: “If something goes wrong, the main problem will be that oil and gas will run out of capital” if producers start defaulting on bond payments. As long as the money keeps flowing, the machine will not stop. But as Laura Parrott warnshead of private fixed income at Nuveen, the market is experiencing a lot of effervescence. In scenarios of such investment fever, he concludes, “people are going to be trapped.” Image | Photo by David Vives on Unsplash Xataka | Climate change is no longer profitable: WallStreet and large investors abandon green policies

Unintentionally, the war in Iran has dynamited the great oil cartel

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The energy earthquake that caused the Third Gulf War has just claimed an unexpected victim: the unity of the oil cartel. As of May 1, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will no longer be part of OPEC and its OPEC+ alliance. As reported by the state news agency WAMin Abu Dhabi consider that it is time to prioritize their “national interest.” After spending almost six decades making “great sacrifices”, the Emirati Government considers that stage over and prefers to fly alone, guided by its own “strategic and economic vision” far from the limits of the group. The context could not be more volatile. The Strait of Hormuz—through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil normally transits— is submerged in operational chaos due to Iranian threats and attacks, in addition to the US blockade of Iranian ports. As explained Reutersin this scenario of suffocation, the Emirates has decided that its energy future needs to maneuver without the ties of Vienna. The beginning of the end of quotas. The impact of this exit is tectonic for the oil market. As analyst Saul Kavonic warns in the BBCthis breakup could be “the beginning of the end for OPEC.” With the departure of Emirates, the cartel loses approximately 15% of its total capacity and one of its most rigorous members, leaving the organization weakened and with only 11 core members. The key to this divorce lies in production, since the Emirati authorities had been complaining for some time that the cartel’s quotas unfairly limited their exports. As detailed by Robin Mills, analyst consulted by the cnnOPEC kept the Emirates restricted to a production of 3.2 million barrels per day, when the country has invested aggressively to reach a real capacity close to 5 million. The Emirates “have been eager to pump more oil for some time,” notes David Oxley of Capital Economics in the same medium. The economic consequences are already being felt. The World Bank, which classifies this crisis as the largest supply loss on record, predicts a 25% increase in energy prices. Brent crude oil has experienced extreme volatility, fluctuating between $104 and $119 per barrel since the start of hostilities. Looking ahead, Jorge León, from Rystad Energy, explains in Guardian that Saudi Arabia will be left alone to shoulder the heavy burden of stabilizing the market, which predicts much greater volatility in the long term. The Arab fracture. Beyond barrels and dollars, the departure of the UAE is a direct symptom of a deep geopolitical fracture accelerated by the war. Emirates feels abandoned. The disappointment of the Gulf: As highlighted Al Jazeerathe decision comes shortly after harsh statements by Anwar Gargash, diplomatic advisor to the Emirati president. Gargash openly criticized the “historically weak” response of Arab countries and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to the Iranian attacks. According to Euronewsthe Emirates have had to absorb much of the impacts of missiles and drones, feeling that their OPEC allies have not provided them with political or military support. Direct tension with Riyadh: The departure has not been agreed with the de facto leader of the cartel. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei confirmed to Reuters who made this “political” decision without consulting Saudi Arabia. The relationship between both powers has been deteriorating for months due to economic competition and recent military disagreements, such as the collapse of their coalition in Yemen in December. An unexpected triumph in Washington. Curiously, this regional fracture represents a diplomatic victory for the American president. Donald Trump had been accusing OPEC of “scam the world” manipulating prices, while the United States paid for the military defense of the Gulf. The departure of the group’s third largest producer weakens exactly the structure that Trump had criticized so much. Towards a “new energy era”. Paradoxically, the flood of Emirati oil will not reach the markets tomorrow morning. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked by war, the impact on global supply will be limited in the short term because ships simply cannot leave. However, the message is sent. When the waters of the Persian Gulf calm, the world will find itself with a market flooded with Emirati crude oil, operating freely. The Emirates has decided to embrace a “new energy era”, the geopolitical map of the Middle East is being redrawn in the heat of the bombs, and OPEC, as we knew it, seems to be one of its first major collateral victims. Image | Emiel Molenaar Xataka | By blocking the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the US is dragging an unpredictable actor into the war: China

Spain continues refining oil and, once again, is once again Europe’s energy lifeline

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The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused panic in Asia and set off all the alarms in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). Faced with this global shortage, the Spanish system has done its homework. According to Agency EFEour country’s refineries have made their operations more flexible to maximize the production of petroleum derivatives, backed by a supply of crude oil that, for now, remains secure. Gonzalo Escribano, principal researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute, explains in statements to EFE that Spain has “specialized and better adapted refineries” than most of its neighbors. The contrast is blatant: Italy or Germany made the strategic mistake of closing 20% ​​of their refining capacity in recent years, outsourcing production to the Persian Gulf or to chinese refineries. Today, that decision is taking a historic toll on them. The real crisis is in the derivatives. It is easy to look out the window and think that the energy apocalypse has not arrived because there is still fuel at the gas stations. But it is a logistical mirage, maritime supply lines they move at the speed of a bicycle by the sheer inertia of the gigantic supertankers (VLCC) that were already sailing before the closure. The jam of more than 800 ships in the Gulf has already erased hundreds of millions of barrels from the market, and the real problem facing the world is not the lack of crude oil, but of already processed products. The first sector to suffocate has been aviation, which acts like the canary in the mine. global airlines They are canceling thousands of flights in the face of kerosene that has soared above 170 euros per barrel. At this point, the Spanish Fuel Industry Association (ACIE) corroborates EFE that the current bottleneck is in distillates such as diesel and kerosene. The Spanish lifeguard. By keeping its refineries at maximum performance, our country not only covers its demand, but also establishes itself as a logistics node capable of helping its neighbors. The contrast is abysmal: while the United Kingdom is forced to import 80% of the kerosene that its planes burn, Spain is capable of producing 80% of what it consumes. This not only protects the internal market from shortages, but also positions the peninsula to export the surplus to a thirsty Europe. In a scenario where the barrel maintains a “war premium” that inflates prices, having the final product already processed makes the Spanish plants the great emergency supplier. Those countries that decided to outsource their production of derivatives to Asia today depend on Spanish capacity so that their carriers and airlines do not remain grounded. The strategic “bunker”: the ace up CORES’ sleeve. How is it possible for Spain to hold its own if it imports practically 100% of the crude oil it consumes? The answer lies in our emergency reserves. Spain counts with an autonomy of about 105 dayswell above the 92 required by international law, managed through a mixed system between the industry and the Strategic Reserves Corporation (CORES). But the real “trick” of this bunker is not the quantity, but the quality: more than half (54.4%) of CORES’ reserves are already refined diesel fuel. Even if Saudi Arabia manages to bypass the Hormuz blockade by sending crude oil through its pipelines to the Red Sea, Europe has a serious problem if it does not have enough factories to distill it. By having the refining duties done in advance, the Spanish tanks buy the country more than three months of logistical peace to prevent the trucks from stopping. There is another safe passage: the “green shield” exception. Added to this fossil shielding is the electrical part, a front where Spain plays with a structural advantage. More than 60% of our generation mix It is already renewable, supported by massive solar and wind deployment and a solid hydraulic cushion. In the European electricity system—where the most expensive technology, usually gas, dictates the final price of all electricity—this green park acts as a retaining wall. During the central hours of the day, the massive injection of clean energy manages to sink wholesale market prices, reaching zero or even negative values. This protects us from the brutal gas increases that are suffocating bills in Germany or Italy. In practice, it allows the national industry to maintain a vital respite and a huge competitive advantage during sunny hours, cushioning an economic blow that is devastating manufacturers in the rest of the continent. A life preserver that floats, but is not immune. Spain has become a fortunate energy island, but not by chance. It is the result of not having succumbed to the temptation to dismantle its hydrocarbon infrastructure while, in parallel, investing massively in the transition towards sun and wind. However, it would be a mistake to become complacent. The life jacket floats, but the sea is rougher than ever. Fatih Birol, director of the IEA, has warned that this crisis exceeds those of 1973, 1979 and 2022 combined. And our country is not without cracks: we still lack massive batteries to store our renewable energy (which makes us vulnerable to gas every time it gets dark) and our external dependence on crude oil remains almost absolute. We have gained precious time, but the hyper-connected economy of the 21st century reminds us that when the world slows down, no one is completely unscathed. Image | Gregorio Puga Bailón Xataka | First it was the automotive industry, now Europe is going to lose another of its star industries to China

Volotea begins to charge extra due to the rise in oil prices on its flights. 97% of passengers have agreed to pay it

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More and more airlines are already taking measures to contain the energy chaos that has arisen as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. Although many of them have chosen to cancel a good number of flightsothers have chosen to make their tickets more expensive. One of them has been Volotea. And the Spanish airline has launched a price adjustment policy linked at the cost of fuel which can make the ticket already purchased more expensive up to a week before flying. Crisis in the Middle East. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuzthrough which it passes about 40% of oil consumed by European airlines, has skyrocketed the price of fuel and forced the sector to look for ways to avoid absorbing the blow on their own. Volotea has been the first Spanish airline to transfer this cost to the passenger explicitly and with its own mechanism. What exactly has he done. Since March 16, Volotea has applied what it calls the Fair Travel Promise: seven days before the departure of each flight, the airline consults the market price of fuel in public sources and, if it has increased compared to the time of the reservation, charges the passenger a supplement of up to 14 euros per person per trip. According to they count From 20 Minutes, most surcharges are between 7 and 10 euros. And the adjustment can also work the other way around: if the price of fuel drops, the company returns the difference. What options does the passenger have? The traveler who receives the surcharge notice has a period of 48 hours to decide what to do. You can pay the supplement and continue with your plans, request a full refund of the ticket, or take advantage of the time offered by the airline to modify or cancel the reservation for free up to four hours before takeoff. The company ensures that its customers are aware of this policy before booking, since they must accept it at the time of purchase. The numbers that Volotea manages. According to data from the airline itself, 97% of affected passengers have chosen to pay and keep their trip. The company interprets that percentage as a sign that the measure “is aligned with customer expectations,” in its own words. In addition, it has canceled a small percentage of flights due to higher fuel prices, although it assures that it affects less than 1% of its total schedule. Countermeasures. Not all airlines are acting the same. According to Expansioncompanies such as Air France-KLM, Qantas or Cathay Pacific already apply fuel supplements, while IAG (the group that owns Iberia and British Airways) or Ryanair do not do so at the moment. Groups such as Lufthansa or Ryanair itself have asked the European Union to study a joint purchasing model for kerosene, similar to the one that was launched with gas after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Why can it go further? If the Strait of Hormuz blockade is prolonged, pressure on fuel prices could intensify. The Airports Council International (ACI Europe) and Ryanair already have warned that the problem of cancellations in the industry could worsen if supply suffers. Spain has some margin thanks to its national refining capacity (almost 9.9 million tons of kerosene per year, according to share El Mundo), but it is not a structural solution. Volotea has moved in a different way, and now we wonder if more airlines will join this strategy. Cover image | Dylan Agbagni (Wikipedia) In Xataka | Airlines are becoming more imaginative to save costs: Lufthansa is going to clean economy class less

Behind oil, the US had a much more mundane reason for attacking Iran: pistachios

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Since the United States and Israel struck Iran on February 28, unleashing a war that has lasted more than a month and now hangs on a fragile truce, the world has been attentive to the ups and downs in the price of oil and the traffic of goods such as urea either helium. Logical Your flow has been greatly damaged by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and sectors as important as transportation, agriculture or the technology industry depend on them. There is, however, another commodity that has grabbed much fewer headlines and is equally affected (perhaps even more so) by the war: the pistachio. green gold. No market remains immune to the passage of time, but few have changed as much over the last half century as that of pistachio. If we go back to the 60s, even the 70s, talking about the world pistachio market was talk basically about Iran. The country dominated global trade, placing itself far above from rivals such as the United States or Türkiye. Today the photo is different. Has it changed that much? It comes with looking at the graph above. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), during the 2025/2026 season the US will strengthen its global leadership with 712,700 tons metric, 65% of total production. Iran takes 18% of the pie, followed not so far by Türkiye (11%). These are not current figures, but the new reality. Although the pistachio industry is a business marked by cyclical patterns of its production, its global photo has hardly changed in the last decade: the USA dominates, followed by Iran and Türkiye, which have sometimes reached exchange the second and third position. At the distancefollowed by Syria and the EU, Spain included. It’s the market… and politics. That Iran has lost its global leadership in favor of the United States is hardly a coincidence. Nor is it explained only by reasons of production or pure economics. As I remembered recently analyst Justin Fox in Bloomberg, in reality the US authorities did not begin to bet on pistachio production in California until the middle of the last century. The plantations as such did not arrive until the late 1960s and the first commercial harvest with a certain scope was harvested in 1976. However, the future of the world pistachio market has been influenced by both the geostrategic decisions made in Washington and the work of pistachio farmers in the San Joaquin Valleyin the state of California. Reviewing history. At the end of the 70s, after the overthrow of the Shah and the takeover of the embassy American in Iran, Washington imposed a trade embargo on the country that cleared the way for Californian farmers eager to dominate the national market. The trade penalty was lifted in 1981, but just a few years later the US gave another boost to its industry by applying a tariff of 241% to raw Iranian pistachios in shell. Since then the scenario has become more complicated, but its result is evident: California has become a heavyweight in global production. And with it the US, which surpassed Iran for the first time in the 2004 campaign and has been more than doubling its annual harvest since 2020. “What’s behind that takeoff?” That’s the question Justin Fox asks himself in your analysisin which he slips several ideas: this boom is partly explained by changes in water policies that led American farmers to bet on almonds and pistachios, the advantages of their production during droughts and the boost of Stewart and Lynda Resnickowners of Wonderful Company, a firm that brings together between 15 and 20% of California pistachios and found the key to popularizing the product. And for proof, a button: since the middle of the last decade, per capita consumption in the country has tripled. Beyond the geostrategic value of Iran, its weight in the oil industry or the turbulent relationship with Israel, there are those who have seen the pistachio market as one of the factors that have conditioned the relationship between Washington and Tehran over recent decades. “Hostile relations with Iran seem to have benefited California producers,” says Fox, who recalls that there is even a documentary, ‘Pistachio Wars’which “even hints that pistachio interests are partly responsible for that hostility.” Is it that important? It is estimated that the ‘vede gold’ was the 17th export in terms of value of the US agricultural industry during fiscal year 2025. And it is not unreasonable to think that this position will improve. Both for the growing popularity of pistachio, driven in recent years by the fever of ‘Dubai chocolate’as well as the commitment of US farmers. The New York Times esteem that pistachio orchards have exploded in surface area in the last quarter of a century: from around 100,000 acres in California in 2001, they have grown to more than 600,000. And the war came. At this point the question is obvious… How is the war in Iran affecting the world pistachio market? There are those who believe that the American industry will be one of the best stops. “This war will limit what Iran can make and export to customers in Europe and China,” explains to TNYT Adam Orandi, responsible for a pistachio tree extension in San Joaquín. It is not only about a possible loss of strength of the Islamic Republic in the market, but about the behavior of prices. Orandi is not the only one who has pointed in that direction. In recent weeks other voices have speculated about the benefits that California companies could obtain, especially considering the good estimates of harvest that they handle in the US. Click on the image to go to the tweet. Has the war affected that much? Yes. A few weeks ago Times of India slid and to some of the threats that the war represents for the Iranian pistachio trade: logistical paralysis (conditioned by disturbances in maritime routes), the increase in premiums charged by insurance companies, power … Read more

To survive the end of oil, China has resurrected an old German technology from World War II: turning coal into plastic

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While the world assumes that China’s energy transition is based exclusively on solar panels and electric vehicles — and, in part, it is, consolidating as the first great ‘electrostate’—, reality hides a much darker side. Faced with the outbreak of the Third Gulf War, Beijing has not even flinched. Beyond its immense strategic oil reserves, the secret of its resistance lies in an even more daring maneuver: the resurrection of German technology from World War II. An old German technology. Faced with the instability of oil imports, China has perfected the use of coal to produce petrochemical products. This synthesis technology (historically known as the process of fischer–Tropsch) was originally developed by Germany to sustain its military economy during World War II. Although it is widely known in the chemical industry, its main defect has always been the enormous pollution it generated. China has improved it. Far from settling for an outdated process, Chinese researchers have radically improved it. According to the state agency Xinhuaa team from Peking University has achieved a historic breakthrough by adding a minimal amount of methyl bromide (five parts per million) to the catalytic process. This surgically “turns off” the pathway that forms carbon dioxide as a byproduct, reducing these emissions from 30% to less than 1% and opening the door to near-green manufacturing to convert coal-derived synthesis gas (syngas) into olefins, the building blocks of plastics. At an industrial level, expansion is already a fact. As detailed South China Morning Postin Turpan prefecture (Xinjiang), construction has just begun on the world’s largest coal-to-ethylene glycol (a toxic compound used for plastics and antifreeze) project, with an astonishing capacity of 2.4 million tons per year. Even, as the magazine highlighted ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineeringresearch is being carried out on how to integrate this process (called PFTO) to chemically recycle tons of plastic waste, converting it into syngas and then back into light olefins. Did you see it coming? It is not the first time that China decides to take sides and prevent rather than cure. The Asian giant has decided to completely decouple its industry from maritime vulnerabilities and Western influence. “This is not China’s war, but Beijing began preparing for it years ago,” points out The New York Times. Everything accelerated during Donald Trump’s first term, prompting President Xi Jinping to demand complete “self-sufficiency” that would insulate China from any disruption to foreign supply chains. Time has proven them right. The war in Iran has brutally increased the price of crude oil, suffocating international petrochemical competitors that depend on black gold. In contrast, local Chinese coal has only gotten cheaper. According to Reutersthis has been a financial triumph: shares of companies such as Ningxia Baofeng Energy, which produces millions of tons of chemicals from coal, have risen 30% since the start of the conflict, while traditional Asian refiners such as Rongsheng Petrochemical have lost up to 27% of their stock market value. Furthermore, the Chinese media analyzed by Carbon Brief They insist on a unanimous nationalist message: in the face of a real emergency, coal is the only resource that the nation truly controls, acting as the great “ballast” guarantor of its national security. A change to other sectors. The change is undeniable. As revealed Bloombergthe country’s main coal miner, China Shenhua Energy, has cut its overall budget by 16%, but has almost doubled its investment in coal-to-chemical conversion, from 2.5 billion to 4.1 billion yuan by 2026. But at a devouring pace, as The New York Times provides information that measures the phenomenon: in 2020, China used 155 million tons of coal to manufacture chemicals; by 2024, the figure jumped to 276 million, and in 2025 it grew another 15%, single-handedly exceeding the total annual coal consumption of the entire United States. The research center CREATE confirms this trend in its reportconfirming that the use of coal in the chemical industry grew by 20% year-on-year only in the first half of 2025. Added to this is that, as the American media explains80% of Chinese nitrogen fertilizer (a third of the world’s supply) is already made with coal rather than oil or gas, allowing Beijing to keep its product at less than half the global market price. Behind it there is a very high cost. All this bold industrial maneuver has a severe climate cost that is already setting off international alarms. China’s draft 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) has set extremely cautious climate goals. As the experts explain CREATE and collect Financial Timesthe set goal of reducing carbon intensity by only 17% is “disappointing” and leaves room for the country’s emissions to continue growing between 3% and 6% in real terms over the next five years. This new government plan de facto reverses the international promise to “phase down” coal consumption, replacing it with a consumption “plateau” and explicitly protecting the large-scale expansion of the coal-based petrochemical industry. Only chemical projects already planned to be built between now and 2029 could increase China’s annual carbon dioxide emissions by an additional 2%. The forecasts are resounding. According to Bloomberg, By 2030, China’s chemical roadmap will massively stop using oil as a primary fuel (thanks to the adoption of its electric vehicles) and will take advantage of its modernized facilities to seek 85% self-sufficiency in all advanced materials and chemicals, displacing traditional giants. A feared crisis of overcapacity. The European ideas laboratory MERICS warns of collateral consequences: The Chinese domestic economy, with consumer confidence stagnant since the pandemic, has no way to absorb all this gigantic new production of materials and plastics. As a direct result, Chinese factories are forced to export their immense surpluses to the rest of the world at fire sale prices. This aggressive price war propelled China’s trade surplus to a stratospheric record of $1.2 trillion in 2025. According to the complaint MERICSthese massive exports are cannibalizing the industrial base of other nations; In the European Union alone, up to 500 manufacturing jobs are being lost daily due to the total … Read more

Europe already has its recommendations for the latest oil crisis

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15 years later, the idea of ​​limiting the speed to 110 km/h is floating in the air again. It comes from the European Commission, an organization that has indicated what measures it recommends to countries to save fuel with a letter. It includes 10 measures that touch on all types of issues in our economic and social life. These are those aimed at mobility. What has happened? That the European Commission, through Dan Jorgensen, Commissioner for Energy, has sent a letter to the 27 with recommendations to save oil in the face of the crisis that we are already experiencing and the possibility of it extending over time, according to media such as The World either The Country. The decalogue is based on the recommendations made by the International Energy Agency, but Jorgensen has already pointed out in the press conference after the announcement that there is no general recipe for all member countries of the European Union, so it is up to each one what to apply. At 110 km/h. Perhaps one of the measures that draws the most attention to Spaniards is the 10 km/h reduction in speed. It is a measure that The Government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero already applied it in 2011. That barely lasted a few months (from March 7 to July 1) and the reason was the crisis derived from the Arab springs with which the price of crude oil rose. In those days, the Brent Barrel had also exceeded $100 per unit. When the project was presented, the expected savings for one year were 1.4 billion euros and gasoline and diesel consumption was 15 and 11% lower. The measure was lifted by encrypting savings of 450 million euros During the months that the plan was active and the fuel savings were 11.4% in the case of gasoline and 7.7% in the case of diesel. Given the enormous variety of models with combustion engines, it is impossible to establish a specific saving figure by reducing speed by 10 km/h. This is certain to happen since fuel consumption increases exponentially at higher speeds if you drive in the highest possible gear. The DGT points out Driving at 110 km/h leads to savings of almost 9% in a gasoline car and around 6.5% if we talk about a diesel car. Today yes, tomorrow no. Another of the measures announced by the European Commission that governments can apply is to limit entry to cities based on the license plate number. The idea is to use the car on alternate days to get around, a measure that would boost the use of public transport and would be accompanied by the demand from Europe that teleworking be prioritized to avoid commuting. This solution has generally been applied to improve pollution rates. They are common in countries more polluted than ours. In Mexico, for example, they apply the Not Circulating Today in which the license plate number is taken into account to allow or disallow the circulation of cars. Also in countries like China it has been applied. In our country, the most famous case was that of Madrid, which with The Government of Manuela Carmena applied this protocol in 2016. The measures, in fact, are still considered to reduce pollution in the city but they have not been applied again. Flights, the fewer the better. The Energy Commissioner has also referred to flights. According to Jorgensen, we should “avoid air travel when alternatives exist” and it has been clear with who the main ones are: “reducing business flights can quickly relieve pressure on the aviation fuel market,” they state in The World. It must be taken into account that Europe has been working for a long time in reducing short-term flights, especially those lasting less than two hours, and replacing them with train travel. In fact, the commitment to connect European capitals It is a determined commitment by the Commission. Lisbon-Madrid is a good example of this. It is expected to be long. In addition to the European recommendations, it must be taken into account that Europe is releasing its oil reserves with the aim of containing fuel prices. Our country alone has released 11.5 million barrels of oil from its energy reserves. However, the crisis is expected to be long. The accounts suggest that the world is already facing a daily deficit of 8 million barrels. Oil at $200 a barrel begins to appear on the horizon. Media like Financial Times They warn that we are facing a crisis similar to that of the 70s. And Repsol already warns– Releasing oil reserves is a temporary patch. Photo | Tim D. and Rafael Garcin In Xataka | There is a silent war between “premium” and low-cost gas stations: and the most unexpected side is losing it

The world trembles over Hormuz oil while ignoring what feeds 50% of the planet

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Geopolitics has a curious tendency to make us focus our attention on a specific point and not look at everything around us. With the scale of the tension in the Strait of Hormuzall eyes were on crude oil and the price of gasoline; However, experts warn that fertilizers are also in the spotlight. And the reality is that its collapse can cause a lack of food in our crops, since the vast majority depend on it. An invisible engine. Although the world seems to have forgotten about the fertilizers that arrive through the Strait of Hormuz, the reality is that we can affirm that humanity cannot exist without organic chemistry. And it is no wonder, because more than half of the food produced worldwide is available thanks to mineral fertilizers, as the IFDC points out. If we go further, the studies point out that nitrogen fertilizers Synthetics sustain the diet of almost half of the world’s population. And the worst of all is that, without this mineral contribution, global harvests will be directly reduced by half, so we are not talking about a product that improves performance marginally, but rather we are talking about the pillar of a food system that supports 8 billion people. A bottleneck. In this context of absolute dependence, the media focus is paradoxical. International attention and logistical surveillance focus almost exclusively on fossil fuels, ignoring the fact that fertilizers are a highly concentrated industry and closely linked to natural gas. But organizations like UNCTAD and media like EFE they have put figures to disaster by estimating that a third of global maritime fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This means that logistical interruptions in the Persian Gulf directly affect millions of tons of agricultural inputs, which for the UN It is undoubtedly a major impact on global food security. There are no reservations. In recent weeks we have seen how different governments have announced with great fanfare the release of thousands of barrels of oil in national reserves. A strategy that has been built in recent years to be able to cushion this type of geopolitical shocks, but with fertilizers there is no such thing. It has consequences. The analyzes of the experts point out in this case that the interruption of the fertilizer chain has a full impact on the field, since any interruption has a full impact on the bank. Here both the FAO and the World Bank They have been warning for months that the suspension of shipments from the Gulf can skyrocket food prices almost instantly, severely affecting countries that depend on food imports. But the problem is that right now there is a significant lack of infrastructure, since we are seeing that the sector is dominated by a few players such as Russia, China, India and the United States. This, added to the shortage of long-term storage networks, makes us think that the price of food may suffer a large increase in the coming weeks, as well as have a bad harvest of 2026. Measures to alleviate it. The Government of Spain recently approved a new text that, in addition to lower energy-related taxesalso opted to inject money into the primary sector. In this case, direct aid was offered to partially compensate for this increase in fertilizers with the aim of ensuring that the increase was not transferred entirely to the shopping basket. Images | James Baltz Jonathan Cooper In Xataka | You’ve probably never heard of urea. The missiles in Iran are destroying their production, and that will affect your food

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