oil

The US is suffocating Cuba energetically. Russia’s response is to send two megaships loaded with oil

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The island of Cuba woke up this week plunged into darkness. A total collapse of the national electrical grid last Monday left the country paralyzedinterrupting surgeries in hospitals, food rotting in refrigerators due to lack of refrigeration and forcing airlines to suspend their flights. This massive blackout is the sixth that the Caribbean nation has suffered in the last 18 months, an unequivocal symptom of a humanitarian and energy crisis that has hit rock bottom. Where does it start. The origin of this asphyxiation dates back to the beginning of the year. The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in january by US forces cut off the supply of oil that Venezuela, its main benefactor, sent to the island. Since then, Donald Trump’s government has intensified the energy blockade. However, in the midst of this strangulation, an old ally has decided to make a move on the board: Russia. The voyage of the lifeboats. Cuba only produces around 40% of the oil it needs for its national demand, historically depending on imports. according to the data provided The Maritime Executive. The island has not received “a single drop” of large-scale fuel since January 9, the date on which the Mexican ship docked Ocean Mariner with 86,000 barrels. Mexico canceled subsequent shipments after giving in to pressure and threats of tariffs from the Trump administration. Now, all eyes are on two boats: seahorse: This Hong Kong-flagged vessel is carrying 200,000 barrels of diesel (or about 27,000 tons of Russian gas, according to maritime intelligence firm TankerTrackers cited by him Financial Times). After being detained for three weeks in the Atlantic, it resumed its march at a speed of 9.9 knots and is expected to reach the western Cuban coast between this weekend and Monday, March 23. Anatoly Kolodkin: Flying the Russian flag and owned by the state company Sovcomflot (sanctioned by the US, the EU and the United Kingdom), this colossus set sail from the Russian port of Primorsk on March 8. According to statements from the Kpler firm collected by Guardianis loaded with about 730,000 barrels of crude oil from the Urals. Its arrival is estimated for April 4, although other sources place it earlier. A fight between the Kremlin and the White House. The arrival of these ships is much more than a commercial transaction; It is a declaration of intent. According to ReutersUS President Donald Trump has raised the tone drastically, telling reporters that he hopes to have “the honor of taking Cuba” and that he can do “whatever he wants” with a nation he considers “very weakened.” Washington’s goal according to New York Timesis to force the departure of the Cuban president, Miguel Díaz-Canel. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also demanded regime change. Moscow’s response has not been long in coming. Without directly mentioning Trump, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement reaffirming its “unbreakable solidarity” with the “government and brotherly people of Cuba,” condemning attempts at “crude interference” and intimidation on what they called the “Island of Freedom.” as detailed Reuters. However, in practical terms, the relief for Cubans will be short-lived. Jorge Piñón, researcher at the Energy Institute of the University of Texas interviewed by The Countrywarns that diesel seahorse—vital for generating sets, transportation and agriculture—will only be able to satisfy national consumption for 10 days. “We must remember that inventories are empty,” emphasizes Piñón. Cuba had already reached its “zero hour.” Military tension and desperate measures. The Caribbean board is red hot. Adding to the diplomatic tension is the military presence. According to The Country, Two US-flagged vessels, one of them identified as part of the Coast Guard (USCGC), were recently prowling near the coast of Holguín, in eastern Cuba. Asphyxiated by the blockade, the Díaz-Canel government has resorted to unprecedented measures. Havana has allowed for the first time that small private companies import their own fuel. Simultaneously, the regime has invited Cuban exiles to invest and own businesses on the island, while the official newspaper Granma desperately promotes the installation of solar panels, calling them “the light and energy that cannot be blocked.” The countdown. While the ships seahorse and Anatoly Kolodkin shorten the nautical distance to the port of Matanzas, the outcome of this crisis remains uncertain. The secret negotiations between Havana and the US administration to ease the blockade, confirmed last week, hang by a thread in the face of the aggressive rhetoric of the White House. For now, the Cuban government is entrenching itself. As published by President Díaz-Canel on social networkCuba will not give in to those who plan to “take over the country, its resources and its assets.” Any external aggressor, the president warned, will encounter “unassailable resistance.” It is a scenario that inevitably awakens the ghosts of the Cold War: the United States tightening the siege and Moscow sending an energy lifeline to its historic ally. Meanwhile, eleven million Cubans look at the sea, waiting for those ships to bring just over 10 days of light. Image | Unsplash Xataka | Cuba faces an unprecedented situation in the 21st century: that no plane enters or leaves the country due to lack of fuel

Ukraine refused to fix a bombed Russian oil pipeline. The EU has given you 90 billion reasons to do so

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Choking off Vladimir Putin’s war machine seemed like a seamless plan for Europe, but geopolitics has a bad habit of ruining the best strategies. The outbreak of the Third Gulf War has shaken the foundations of the global energy market. Now, with prices skyrocketing and a European Union desperately searching for oil, all eyes have once again fallen on an old Soviet relic: the Druzhba pipeline (which, ironically, means “friendship” in Russian). This gigantic steel tube has today become the trench of a new cold war that threatens to fracture the EU itself. Ukraine, a victim of constant bombings, refused out of principle and security to repair a section of this pipeline that continues to supply crude oil to the European countries closest to Moscow. However, as he advances Financial Timesunprecedented pressure from Brussels and the blocking of a vital loan have forced kyiv to make a 180-degree turn and give in to its European partners. What has happened? To understand the problem, we must go back to the end of January 2026. According to the Ukrainian media Suspilne Mediaa Russian airstrike severely damaged the Brody pumping station in the western Lviv region. The flow of Russian oil transiting through Ukrainian territory towards Hungary and Slovakia was cut short. The diplomatic consequences were immediate. Hungary, which has an exemption to continue buying Russian crude due to its energy dependence, accused Ukraine of delaying reparations for political reasons. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán issued a lethal ultimatum, picked up by the chain NPR: “If there is no oil, there is no money.” A threat that was fulfilled. The Hungarian president vetoed a package of macro-financial and military aid from the European Union to Ukraine valued at 90 billion euros, in addition to blocking the twentieth package of sanctions against Russia. Faced with the risk that Ukraine would run out of funds to sustain its economy and its defense, the European Commission decided to intervene. According to PoliticalCommission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa sent a letter to Zelensky offering “technical support and financing” with European funds to repair the pipeline. Cornered by financial asphyxiation, the Ukrainian president ended up giving in and accepted the offer. “I call this blackmail”. For the kyiv government, this transfer has been an extremely bitter pill. In statements to the press collected by EuronewsVolodymyr Zelensky has not hidden his frustration, stating that forcing them to reopen the tap of Russian oil is, for practical purposes, the same as lifting sanctions on Moscow. “I openly say that I am against it. But if you give me the condition that Ukraine will not receive weapons, then, excuse me, I am powerless in this matter. I told our friends in Europe that this is called blackmail,” said the president, reproaching his country for being forced to “finance anti-European policies.” But the Hungarian blockade does not respond only to energy needs; It has a strong domestic component. As pointed out Al JazeeraHungary faces very close parliamentary elections on April 12. Orbán is nine points behind his main rival, Péter Magyar, is using the supply crisis and the figure of Zelensky as an electoral scarecrow. In fact, the Finnish Prime Minister, Petteri Orpo, did not hesitate to denounce upon his arrival in Brussels that Orbán is “using Ukraine as a weapon in his electoral campaign.” Maximum tension between kyiv and Budapest. On the ground, the situation is confusing. On the Ukrainian side, Zelensky has calculated The repairs will take about a month and a half, but at the moment there are no clear indications of what that might be like. While the agency Suspilne Media reports that a small delegation of EU engineers is already in Ukraine assessing the damage (excluding Hungarian and Slovak experts), Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi, declared to The kyiv Independent have no record of any official European mission in the country. On the Hungarian side, the escalation has gone beyond the merely rhetorical to enter the realm of physical retaliation. According to Deutsche WelleIn early March, Hungarian special forces intercepted two armored vans from the Ukrainian entity Oschadbank that were transiting from Austria. In the operation, Hungary seized $80 million in cash and 9 kilos of gold on suspicion of “money laundering.” Various legal experts consulted by the German media greatly doubt the legality of this seizure, suspecting that it is a direct retaliation for the closure of the pipeline. Zelensky, for his part, has not hesitated to describe this act as plain and simple “banditry.” Drones as the “new oil.” While forced to compromise on Russian energy, Ukraine is seeking to capitalize on its own warfare technology to gain international relevance—and funds. As detailed in an analysis of the BBCZelensky has offered the United States and the Gulf countries a $50 billion joint production deal based on Ukraine’s experience making cheap interceptor drones. “For us, this is like oil,” said the Ukrainian president, trying to position his country as a vital provider of security in the midst of the Middle East conflict. In parallel, the energy war is not limited to the Druzhba pipeline. As revealed The Moscow Timesthe Russian state company Gazprom recently denounced that Ukraine launched a wave of 26 drones against compression stations in the Krasnodar region. These infrastructures are key for the TurkStream and Blue Stream gas pipelines, which are currently one of the few remaining routes for Russia to export gas to Europe through Turkey, demonstrating that kyiv continues to try to hit the Kremlin’s energy portfolio wherever it can. The final pulse in Brussels. All this tension has led to the summit of European Union leaders that starts today, March 19, 2026, in Brussels. As he emphasizes TVP Worldthe pressure on Viktor Orbán is absolute. Upon arrival at the summit, the head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, went straight to the point: “It’s time to show our support for Ukraine.” In Brussels right now they are crossing their fingers. As pointed out … Read more

The “bottom of the barrel” was the cheapest waste of the oil industry. The war in Iran has just turned it into an unaffordable luxury

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Historically, the fuel oil has been known in the oil industry as the “bottom of the barrel.” Typically cheap and underappreciated, this byproduct comes from the bottom of distillation towers, the equipment where crude oil is heated and split into multiple products. In fact, very often, this fuel cost less than a barrel of crude oil, and refineries sold it at a loss as it was a simple remnant of the process necessary to manufacture high-value products such as diesel. However, as expert Javier Blas warns in your column for Bloombergthe Iran war has turned the industry upside down. That waste that no one wanted has become an ultra-expensive raw material overnight, which is bad news for the global economy. Despite being overshadowed by other distillates, the fuel oil plays an immense role in the modern world, driving container ships that act as the workhorses of globalization. The breakup of a market at the limit. In the current conflict, all eyes they are set in the rises and falls of crude oil. However, the real drama is hidden in the physical maritime bunker markets, where the traditional relationship between the price of crude oil and refined products has been completely broken. With crude oil hovering around $100, the fuel oil It shouldn’t be much more expensive. In reality, it is trading at $140 a barrel in Singapore and almost $160 in the Emirati port of Fujairah. A report of Lloyd’s List explains that the average price of the fuel oil of very low sulfur content (VLSFO) in the 20 main bunkering centers reached $1,005 per ton, double its pre-war cost and the highest figure since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. For his part, analyst Clyde Russell warns in his column Reuters that, while crude oil futures are confident of a solution, prices for physical cargoes are sending signals of an impending crisis and a supply chain that is buckling under pressure. The missing link. The key to this specific crisis lies in geography and geology. As Blas points outrefineries in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates produce 20% of all fuel oil sold internationally. Added to this is a crucial geological factor: the crude oil from the Persian Gulf generates much more fuel oil than that of other regions. For example, when distilling a barrel of Saudi flagship crude oil (Arab Light), approximately 50% of what comes out is residue for fuel oil, compared to 33% left by US WTI crude oil. This explains why the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a death trap specifically for this byproduct. The logistical panic. The real urgency is no longer just the price, but physical availability. The shipping industry has raised the alarm because supplies are critically low in Singapore and Fujairah, two of the world’s most important bunkering hubs. “If we do nothing, we risk ending up with dry supply points in Asia,” Vincent Clerc sharply warnedCEO of shipping giant Maersk. To avoid collapse, Maersk needs to be proactive and is transporting its own fuel around the globe to have the right amount in the right place, an unprecedented challenge that Clerc compares to the logistical juggle experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic. On a day-to-day basis, the charter market is paralyzed. Scott Bergeron, CEO of Oldendorff Carriers, confess to Lloyd’s List that there are problems getting fuel quotes, and that “availability for April is a big question mark.” The operational consequences will be drastic: Global slowing: Ships will reduce their speed to conserve fuel. Port congestion: Massive congestion is expected in ports that still have reserves. Accelerated scrapping: Older and inefficient fleets could be forced to be scrapped due to the enormous costs. Furthermore, according to Clyde Russell in your column for ReutersAsian refiners are cutting production, and countries like South Korea could restrict exports, pushing dependent nations like New Zealand into rationing measures. The environmental dilemma. This severe lack of supply is even putting pressure on climate regulations. Given the suffocating lack of distillates, The Maritime Executive details that the regulators could be tempted to temporarily suspend IMO 2020 emissions regulations. This would allow ships to return to burning heavy fuel oil (HSFO) widely, freeing up ingredients for other critical sectors. Meanwhile, ships already equipped with scrubbers (scrubbers) can still legally burn the cheaper HSFO. As the price gap between clean and dirty fuel widens, these shipowners are realizing massive savings; In fact, this price spread reached $189.50 per ton in Singapore. The current crisis leaves no room for maneuver. As Javier Blas saysthe world has already spent its main lines of defense against this oil shock: compromised refineries have been avoided and strategic reserves have been emptied. Looking to the future, the only variable capable of balancing consumption with a meager supply is the “destruction of demand” through suffocating prices. Ship fuel may come from the bottom of the barrel, but it has proven to have the ability to sink or keep afloat international commerce. Today, without a doubt, it has become the world’s main problem. Image | Photo by william william on Unsplash Xataka | The US Navy already knows what is going to happen to the planet: the mission to open Hormuz is the closest thing to a suicide operation

“We felt cheated.” Even gas station owners are freaking out about the sudden, meteoric rise in oil

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The missiles fell and the energy markets soared. When the conflict officially began on February 28 between the US, Israel and Iran and its expansion through the Middle East, the energy markets responded to the new scenario and in more or less two weeks, the barrel of Brent has already risen by 50% according to EIA data. At gas stations, the price of fuel also rose overnight. The rapid rise in fuel. Below these lines you can see how the average price of fuel in Spain has evolved according to the data extracted from the Ministry of Ecological Transition of the States and compiled by the Dieselogasoline website. Thus, if we closed February with a price of €1,493/l for Unleaded 95 and €1,548/l for Diesel A+, March has been a relentless uphill climb for all fossil fuels. Today they mark €1,727/l and €1,935/l respectively. With this panorama and the figure of 2 euros/liter on the horizonthe first days already There were long lines at some service stations. before what was coming. Evolution of fuel prices in Spain in March. Dieselogasolina.com The perfect storm. With the blockade of the Strait of Hormuzthe place through which approximately 20% of the world’s production of crude oil and liquefied natural gas passes, confirmation that China turns off the tap of its exports to meet domestic demand, the slowdown in activity of some deposits and that large merchant companies are paralyzed or surrounding all of Africa to satisfy demand at the cost of a longer and more expensive route, it is clear that the scenario for buying oil looks bleak. In fact, not even the International Energy Agency release 400 million barrels of emergency reserves (the largest mobilization in history) was enough for the market to react. Ultimately, that number equivalent about four days of world consumption or about 20 days of what passes through the Strait of Hormuz. And it could be worse: as the spokesman for the Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps explained: “They will not be able to artificially lower the price of oil. Prepare for oil to reach $200 per barrel,” picks up Al Jazeera. Instability, the reduction in supply and its use as a measure of pressure summarize the black picture. But that gasoline is not that of war. Although the history of conflicts in the Middle East is an unequivocal precedent to glimpse the rise of fuel and everything, because in practice it has an impact on the logistics of the bulk of the activities: if the fruit store brings its delivery five times a week, those deliveries cost more. And if you travel 50 kilometers a day to get to work, it will also cost you more. Economy of the obvious. However, there is a harsh reality: that fuel that you are already paying at war prices was acquired previously. We are paying prices for the future, those for replacement. And not just consumers: also gas stations. As Michel-Édouard Leclerc, president of the E. Leclerc supermarket chain and its gas stations, said, to public broadcaster Franceinfo: “We felt cheated, just like the drivers, by the almost automatic speed with which prices rose.” In his case, he also announced the reduction of 30 cents at the group’s gas stations in France thanks to negotiations with suppliers. Who sets the price of fuel. In the Spanish state, prices have been free since 1998, as the CNMC explainsbut from here there are several actors that influence: The international market, based on the price of Brent oil or refined oil in the reference markets. The refinery or wholesale operator, which adds its operating and logistics margin until distribution. The gas station operator: if it is a flagship station such as Repsol or BP, the price is practically a matter for the parent company. If it is independent or belongs to a large surface (such as Plenoil or Leclerc), it has more room for fixation. Hence they are the cheapest. The State through taxesmore specifically the Special Tax on Hydrocarbons and VAT. In Xataka | The rocket and the pen: the theory that explains why the rise in gasoline is here to stay In Xataka | There is a hidden war to sell us the cheapest possible gasoline. One that Ballenoil and Plenergy already dominate Cover | Leclerc

Faced with the fear of a barrel of oil at $200, the US has made an unprecedented decision: remove sanctions on Russia

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After almost two weeks, the Iran war already has a great (and unexpected) beneficiary: the Kremlin. days after giving carte blanche to India to buy million barrels of Russian crude without fear of sanctions, yesterday Washington was one step further by lifting (partially) the sanctions imposed on the Russian oil industry after the invasion of Ukraine. With this, he hopes to alleviate the effects of the Iran war on the energy market and prevent Tehran’s threat from becoming a reality: that the barrel of Brent shoots to $200an all-time high. The question is… What will it mean for the war in Ukraine? What has happened? That the US has decided to pause the sanctions that penalize the purchase of Russian oil, a measure adopted four years ago and which seeks asphyxiate the Kremlin’s ability to finance its troops in Ukraine. The White House just published an order in which it gives the green light to the purchase of crude oil and oil products from Russia. Of course, with small print. The suspension of sanctions is temporary. It will only affect merchandise previously loaded on ships and (a priori) will be limited to one month: from March 12 to April 11. Click on the image to go to the tweet. Why do you do it? The task of announcing the measure has been the Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bressent, who a few hours ago insisted in the White House’s efforts to “promote stability” in the global energy market and above all “keep prices low” while the Iran war lasts. “To expand global supply reach, Treasury grants temporary authorization for countries to purchase Russian oil stranded at sea,” explains the high office. “This measure, which is limited in scope and short-term, applies only to oil that is already in transit.” In the same messageBressent insists that the rise in crude oil prices this week, coinciding with the escalation of tension in the Persian Gulf, is “temporary” and claims that “in the long term it will greatly benefit” the US economy. In recent days, Trump himself has tried to downplay the fluctuations in the Brent barrel. Recently he even stated that, being “the largest oil producer”, the US makes “a lot of money” when crude oil rises. Does context matter? A lot. In fact, the decision of the Treasury Department cannot be understood without taking into account several factors. The first, the escalation in the value of oil to which Bressent himself refers. The stock charts show that the cost of a barrel of Brent has skyrocketed in recent days: from marking just under 70 dollars in mid-February, it has gone above 90, with peaks that exceeded the barrier of the 100. Those fluctuations already affect to those who need to fill the car tank and threaten to go beyond transportation, infecting the shopping basket. What will happen now? The problem is not just how much oil has risen over the last two weeks. There is (very much) concern that the barrel of Brent will continue to become more expensive and, if so, by how much. The Iranian regime already has shown its ability to condition oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime passage that channels 20% of international oil, and Tehran seems willing to use ‘black gold’ as a weapon of war. On Wednesday the regime of the ayatollahs threatened to the US (and the West) with a scenario in which the Brent barrel doubles its value and shoots up to $200, shattering the all-time high of 2008, when it reached $174.5. How will it affect Russia? That’s the other big question. The order just published by the US Treasury will allow Russia to market oil for a month without its customers risking sanctions, generating a flow of cash for the Kremlin. Bressent questions in any case the scope of that injection of funds. “It will not bring significant financial benefits to the Russian government, which derives most of its energy revenue from taxes levied at the point of extraction,” defend the secretary. Is it an exceptional measure? The truth is that it is not the first ‘balloon of oxygen’ that Trump has granted to the Russian oil industry since he began his military operation in Iran. It’s been a week now temporarily relaxed its sanctions policy so that India can buy Russian oil. The measure was approved with conditions very similar to those that Washington now extends to the rest of the countries: a 30-day suspension limited to crude oil already loaded on ships. It is not the only card that the White House has tried to reduce market tension. Another, adopted hand in hand of the International Energy Agency, has been to release millions of barrels of reserves. How much will it benefit Moscow? The great unknown. The measure approved by the US is temporary and has a limited scope, but it will probably allow the Kremlin to sell its oil without having to apply significant discounts to offset the possible sanctions that its buyers faced. Recently Financial Times I calculated that Russia is already winning up to 150 million of dollars in extra income every day through the sale of oil, a plus directly related to the conflict in Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the turbulence in the Gulf and the growing interest of India and China. But will it help the Kremlin? The situation of the Russian coffers is not particularly buoyant. Its public deficit accumulated during the first two months of the year almost reaches the objective set for the entire year and there are those who question that the extra injection it will receive over the next month thanks to oil will increase its room for maneuver in Ukraine. The reason: hydrocarbons represent only a part of the income (relevant, but not decisive) on which the Kremlin depends, which after four years of war has seen how the country’s military industry is conditioning its economy. Images | … Read more

The world needs to get oil out of the Middle East by any means possible. Their only hope is 30 giant ships queuing in Yanbu

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The landscape off the coast of Yanbu on the Red Sea has completely changed in a matter of days. The area is now taken over by VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers), colossal supertankers capable of swallowing two million barrels of crude oil. They are not there just passing through; Its massive concentration responds to a single objective: to carry out the largest and most urgent evacuation of oil in recent times. A fleet to the rescue of the market. To understand the magnitude of this rescue operation, just look at the figures that provides Financial Times: What is happening is a real “flotilla of supertankers” sailing against the clock. About 30 of these giants head to Yanbu, when the usual thing is that only two arrive a month. The reason is that traffic in the Persian Gulf has come to a “stalemate” following the Iranian attacks. The maritime tracking data it handles Bloomberg give an idea of ​​the urgency: In just 48 hours, at least 25 of these giants have headed to the Saudi port. We are talking about a fleet with room to load some 50 million barrels that, otherwise, would have no outlet. It is an essential escape valve right now. The blockade has already caused world production to fall by 6% and the plug is so big that neighbors like Iraq and Kuwait they have had to start closing wells because, simply, they have run out of room in their tanks to store the oil. The “sea bridge” to avoid Iran. How do these ships load oil if they do not enter the Gulf? The answer is in the desert, but the result is seen in the port. Saudi Arabia is using your pipeline East-West like a turnstile. The crude oil travels overland 1,200 kilometers to Yanbu, where the “army” of ships awaits it to distribute it to the world, especially China and India. According to Wall Street Journal, This infrastructure has become “one of the most critical pieces of the world economy” overnight. The CEO of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, confirmed in this medium that they are reaching their maximum capacity: 7 million barrels per day flowing westward. Of them, 5 million are destined directly to be loaded on these supertankers for global markets. The risk does not disappear, it just changes coordinates. But sailing to Yanbu is not a safe ride. As he warns Financial Times, The ships must now “challenge the notorious hotspot of Houthi attacks.” To leave for Asia, these supertankers have to cross the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Although the Yemeni group had signaled a pause in its attacks, experts from EOS Risk They assure that the tankers continue to assume an “enormous risk”, since the area is within reach of Iranian missiles. Even the port of Fujairah in the Emirates, which is also trying to act as an escape route, is already has suffered damage from drone attacks last week. The message is clear: the alternative is less dangerous than Hormuz, but it is not immune to war. The limits of the plan. The big question for markets is whether this armada of ships and desert pipelines can prevent economic collapse. The closure of Hormuz has taken 20 million barrels per day off the board and physical reality imposes its limits on the alternative route. On the one hand, there is a critical funnel in the port itself. According to data from the Argus Media agencyalthough the Saudi pipeline manages to transport up to 7 million barrels, the Yanbu terminals only have real capacity to load between 4 and 4.5 million a day on ships. Inevitably, supertankers will have to queue. On the other hand, the distillate crisis looms. As experts cited by Middle East Eyethe East-West pipeline transports crude oil, not refined products. No matter how many ships fill up in Yanbu, markets like Europe are left without their vital supply of diesel and aviation fuel, which is usually processed in the unreachable refineries of the Middle East. According to Sparta Commodities in statements for WSJwith this route only half of the problem has been “solved.” There are another 10 million barrels that are still trapped with no possible way out. Therefore, it is no longer “crazy” for a barrel to reach $200. The demand for oil is “inelastic”; the economy cannot stop consuming it from one day to the next, which generates brutal upward pressure. The geopolitics of “the worse the better” While ships maneuver in the Red Sea, in Washington the focus is purely strategic. Donald Trump has made it clear that stopping Iran is the priority, even above the price of gasoline. “We make a lot of money when prices rise,” the president even published on his social networks, emphasizing that the US, as a large producer, can afford a resistance that other countries do not have. For its part, the historic opening of the IEA’s strategic reserves (400 million barrels) attempts to “buy time,” but as analyst Javier Blas says, nothing replaces to the actual opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Image | Photo by Khristina Sergeychik on Unsplash Xataka | China has just found a hole in the US’s quietest weapon: an algorithm has hacked its B-2s in Iran

Strangely enough, Iran is exporting more oil now in the middle of the war than before the conflict

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The global crude oil market is experiencing “the largest supply disruption in history,” as the International Energy Agency warns. But the almost total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz hides a brutal irony: the same waters that are closed to the rest of the world are being used by Iran to export more oil than it sold before the war. The incessant flow. Far from paralyzing, the Iranian export machinery has accelerated. According to data from Kpler, In recent days, ships have loaded a daily average of 2.1 million barrels of Iranian crude oil, surpassing the barrier of the 2 million daily they exported in February. The big question is where all this crude oil is going. The answer is unanimous: towards China. A graph of Statista illustrates that the Asian giant It is, by an overwhelming margin, Iran’s largest buyer, accounting for 90.8% of its oil exports in 2024. Since the war began in late February, at least 11.7 to 12 million barrels have crossed the strait bound for China, according to estimates from TankerTrackers and Kpler collected by CNBC. In fact, how to detail Wall Street Journal, There is an anecdote that borders on the surreal to illustrate this situation: small Chinese tankers navigate the strait communicating by shortwave radio with the Revolutionary Guard. “We are a Chinese ship. We are going to pass; we are friendly,” they announce in English to ensure safe passage. A question of survival. As an expert explains consulted by Deutsche WelleChina has become the “indispensable lifeline” for Iranian exports in a context of harsh Western sanctions. This has created a “parallel market” where independent Chinese refiners buy discounted crude oil by operating outside the US financial system, according to the agency Anadolu. However, global panic is evident. The crisis promptly shot up oil prices close to $120 per barrel, levels not seen in four years. The impact has been such that, how to explain BloombergBeijing has ordered its refineries to cancel export shipments of refined fuel to ensure domestic supply in the face of the volatility of the conflict. The dilemma of Kharg Island. Although the United States and Israel have bombed thousands of military and strategic targets in Iranian territory, there is one enclave that remains mysteriously intact: Kharg Island. This small piece of land, just about 20 square kilometers, is the true jewel in the energy crown, channeling 90% of the country’s crude oil exports. According to analysts Guardian and France 24the answer is economic terror: an attack on Kharg could catapult the price of a barrel to $150, sending global markets into a “nose dive.” Also, how my colleague Carlos Prego explains in Xatakadestroying the facilities would deprive a hypothetical successor government of the main source of income necessary to rebuild the country once the war ends. Iranian evasion tactics. Iran’s export success is not based only on military intimidation, but on complex sanctions evasion engineering. According to The Wall Street Journalthe regime uses a “shadow fleet” made up of old oil tankers that sail without tracking systems and under false flags, such as those of Comoros or Guyana. On a financial level, the sophistication is just as high. Intelligence documents revealed by Euractiv show that Iran uses shell companies in China to carry out euro-denominated transactions, moving hundreds of millions through accounts at European banks such as Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas. Simultaneously, a report of ACAMS exposes how the Revolutionary Guard uses the cryptocurrency ecosystem (with multi-million dollar transactions in stablecoins such as USDT) to launder money and finance their affinity groups without going through traditional banking. Finally, although Iran is trying to diversify its departures using the Jask terminal in the Gulf of Oman – thus avoiding the Strait of Hormuz -, CNBC warns of its extreme inefficiency: Loading a supertanker there can take up to 10 days, compared to the one or two days it takes in Kharg. Triumph in the midst of chaos. The conflict in the Middle East has drawn a counterintuitive scenario. While the large producers of the Persian Gulf are bleeding economically due to the paralysis of trade routes, Iran has capitalized on the chaos. The panic of a global energy collapse acts as an invisible shield that protects the island of Kharg from Western bombing. Under this umbrella of armed immunity, war has not suffocated the Islamic Republic; On the contrary, it has given it a maritime monopoly that allows its ghost fleet to continue feeding insatiable Chinese demand in broad daylight. Image | Photo by Fredrick F. on Unsplash Xataka | China just found a hole in the US’s quietest weapon: an algorithm has hacked its B-2s in Iran, and they have the audio

If the oil apocalypse becomes a reality, Spain has known for years how long it can last: 92 days

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Faced with the logistical blockage of Hormuz that threatens to drown the global economy, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has decided to press the red button. The organization has proposed the largest release of oil reserves in its history: about 400 million barrels. To put it in context, this figure is more than double the 182 million barrels that were injected into the market in 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Spain, as a member of the IEA, will not be left out. How to collect Europe Pressthe vice president and minister for the Ecological Transition, Sara Aagesen, has confirmed our country’s support for this plan. If the proposal is approved unanimously, Spain will contribute to the market the equivalent of about 12 or 12.5 days of its national consumption. The Spanish bunker. All this movement leads us to the big question: how much margin does Spain really have if the situation becomes entrenched? Legally, there is a global obligation to maintain minimum security stocks equivalent to 92 days of sales or computable consumption. According to calculations of The CountryAdding all the capacities, the country has about 105 days of autonomy. This safety mattress works through a mixed system: The Corporation of Strategic Reserves of Petroleum Products (CORES) must maintain 42 of those dayswhile the remaining 50 days are maintained directly by the industry. Currently, CORES custody more than 5.4 million cubic meters of stocks. It’s not just crude oil. To be truly useful in a crisis, CORES reserves are composed by 54.4% diesel, 29.2% crude oil and 6.0% kerosene. stocks They are strategically distributed by Spanish geography. The Levante area accounts for 44.8% of the total, followed by the central area with 19.2% and the northern area with 17.7%. The objective of these reserves is not to replace normal long-term supply, but to inject fuel into the market to stop sudden price increases and buy vital time to reorganize logistics and trade routes. We can’t relax. Just because we have a margin of three months does not mean that we are invulnerable. Spain is a country with almost absolute foreign energy dependence. In 2024, national oil consumption was 1,322,492 barrels per daybut own production barely reached 76,947 barrels. Our net crude oil imports represent more than 100% of our consumption. Furthermore, our economy she is addicted to black goldespecially to move. The transport sector is responsible for 71.1% of the final consumption of petroleum products in Spain, with diesel/diesel being the undisputed king, accounting for 61.1% of that consumption. The Iranian asphyxiation has a crack. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have activated a logistical “antidote” capable of rescuing up to 7 million barrels per day. The main asset is East-West Pipelinean oil pipeline connecting eastern Saudi fields with the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The machinery is already in motion, there is already an “army” of at least 25 supertankers sailing towards Yanbu to load this crude oil. Adding to this effort is the United Arab Emirates pipeline, which provides up to 2 million additional barrels directly to the Gulf of Oman. The refinery factor. But the macroeconomy hits a wall, Saudi oil pipelines transport crude oil, not diesel. As analyst Arne Lohmann Rasmussen warns, the real danger is the deficit of distillates. If Europe does not have enough refineries to process that oil in time, the desert pipelines are of no use. This is where the CORES bunker win the game. The 54.4% of already refined diesel that Spain stores is the only thing that guarantees that the trucks do not stop. In short, the Saudi “antidote” prevents total collapse, but our reserves buy the 100 days of peace necessary to avoid seeing the pump in the clouds. If diplomacy fails, not even the bunker will avoid the historic scare. Image | Volgotanker Xataka | The price of oil has plummeted overnight. The one at the gasoline pumps will remain the same

The price of oil has plummeted overnight. The one at the gasoline pumps will remain the same

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Just 24 hours. That’s how long it has taken the global oil market to go from historic panic to almost euphoric relief. On Monday, a barrel of Brent – ​​the benchmark in Europe – was close to $120, its highest level since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It seemed the prelude to an imminent recession driven by the war between the United States, Israel and Iran. However, today we woke up with crude oil plummeting, reaching below 90 dollars. And no, there is no peace treaty signed in Geneva, no withdrawal of troops, nor the reopening of maritime trade routes. Everything has depended on the president of the United States, Donald Trump, assured the chain CBS News that the war with Iran was “virtually complete” and promised reporters that the conflict would end “very soon.” And so, by the art of discursive magic, the price has begun to fall. The nonsense of a market driven by headlines. What has happened these days gives a good account of the current state of the financial markets: they operate based on immediate speculation, not on physical reality. As the analysts summarize cited by Financial Timesthis stock market reaction is known as Taco trade (acronym of Trump always chickens outor “Trump always chickens out”). Investors don’t believe the war is really over; They simply assume that Trump needs to lower the price of gasoline at all costs so as not to sink in the legislative elections. In fact, to force this price drop on the screens of Wall Streetthe White House has had to resort to desperation. Trump has even suggested that he will temporarily lift oil sanctions on some countries — including the possibility of easing the punishment for Russia itself— and even the G7 has considered releasing strategic reserves emergency. The financial market bought the headline and the price of a barrel fell. But the real world tells a very different story. Reasons to distrust the optimism of the stock market. It is logical to view this price drop with skepticism. The Brent chart can go down as much as it wants on investors’ screens, but the real logistical problem remains intact. He Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) warns that the threat is real and palpable: The great logistical bottleneck: The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. This has taken 20 million barrels a day out of circulation. The physical danger: Iranian speedboats, naval mines and drones prevent oil tankers from sailing. Collapse on land: The situation is so extreme that, since ships cannot sail, storage tanks on land have been filled to the brim, forcing wells to be closed. Furthermore, the supposed unilateral peace announced by Trump clashes head-on with Tehran’s position. According to Financial TimesIran’s Revolutionary Guard assures that its armed forces “are waiting for the US Navy.” As analyst Kurt Cobb points out in oil priceIran defines victory as the survival of its regime, so a negotiated cessation of hostilities is, today, a chimera. The “rocket and boom” effect at the pump. This is where macroeconomics collides with citizens’ pockets. It doesn’t matter if the barrel of Brent drops overnight in international markets, you won’t see that relief today at the gas station. As my colleague Alberto de la Torre explained a few days ago, in Xatakathe fuel market suffers a very particular effect: Skyrocket: When the supply chain falters, the price skyrockets quickly. Gas stations act in anticipation and raise prices to cover the future cost at which they will have to replace that fuel, regardless of the fact that the impact of the barrel of Brent is not yet real on their purchases. Drops like a feather: When the barrel drops in the stock market, the drops at the pump last for weeks or months. There is very little room for maneuver, a lot of caution in case war breaks out again, and a clear resistance to lowering prices at the same dizzying pace at which they rose. And why does diesel increase more than gasoline? The biggest loser of this crisis is the diesel customer, who in Spain has suffered increases of 20 cents per liter in just one week. Europe has a structural problem: we lost Russia as a major exporter, we have fewer operational refineries and we have a strong deficit. Furthermore, its demand is much more inelastic; The driver of a car can decide to take the subway if gasoline prices rise, but the freight transporter, the farmer or the industrial machinery must refuel with diesel, no matter what the cost. The disbelief of the industry itself. The lack of faith in this “express peace” is shared even by the oil magnates themselves. In an insightful article published in oil priceDan Doyle, businessman in the sector fracking American, confesses that the shale industry is not buying this rebound. Despite having touched $100, oil companies are not hiring more drilling platforms or starting large extraction campaigns. They know that the “fast dollars of war will dissipate” and prefer to maintain strict capital discipline. And although The Conversation remember that the United States is less vulnerable today to oil shocks because it exports millions of barrels a day, the psychological toll of seeing the scoreboard rise at the gas stations continues to damage consumer confidence globally. Missile climbs, rowing descents. Today, the world’s stock markets have closed with green numbers. Investors have bought into the optimism of a press conference in Florida, and algorithms have adjusted the price of Brent downwards. However, geography remains stubborn. Large oil tankers remain anchored without daring to cross the Strait of Hormuz, maritime insurers continue to tremble and wells in the Middle East continue to close due to lack of space. Tomorrow, when you approach the gas station in your neighborhood before going to work, the illuminated panel will remind you of the golden rule of today’s energy market: in times of geopolitical uncertainty, the downs travel in a rowboat, but the ups fly in … Read more

The EU has a perfect plan to suffocate Russia. The problem is that now it needs its oil to survive

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In December 2025, we said goodbye to the year by telling Vladimir Putin a resounding da svidániya (До свида́ния). The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the Commissioner for Energy, Dan Jørgensen, pompously announced a political agreement to end Russian gas imports (both by pipeline and liquefied) by 2027. The political message was crystal clear: Europe wanted to show that it was no longer dependent on Moscow. The blackmail was over. But in its eagerness to celebrate the blackout of Russian gas, Brussels forgot a small detail: Putin’s oil still runs through the veins of Eastern Europe. And the embargo, in reality, has lasted very little. Barely three months later, physical reality has imposed itself on diplomacy. Today we find ourselves with a brutal paradox: the same European Union that designed an unprecedented economic war architecture against Moscow, and that asked its citizens to make sacrifices in the name of collective security, is now pressuring invaded Ukraine to open the tap on Russian crude oil. Deep down in the Kremlin, Putin always knew that the laws of politics rarely win against dependence on infrastructure. The epicenter of this crisis has its own name: the Druzhba pipeline (Interestingly, “friendship” in Russian). As revealed by an exclusive from Financial Timesthe EU is pressuring kyiv to allow inspection and repair of this infrastructure that transports Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia. The problem lies in a Russian attack that occurred on January 27. As detailed ReutersUkrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal confirmed that a bombing severely damaged the sensors and internal equipment of the infrastructure. The story is expanded by the CEO of Naftogaz, Sergii Koretskyi, in statements to Financial Times: The attack caused a storage tank with 75,000 cubic meters of oil to catch fire, unleashing a fire the size of a football field that took 10 days to extinguish. Ukraine claims that repairing this in the middle of war is slow and dangerous. However, Hungary and Slovakia do not buy this version. According to EuronewsPrime Ministers Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico have created a joint investigative committee, demanding immediate access to the area. Orbán has gone further, accusing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of lying and orchestrating “state terrorism” and, together with Fico, demands that an independent investigation mission be deployed on the ground to verify the damage, something that kyiv refuses for security reasons in the middle of the war. The perfect storm in the Middle East Europe is not asking Ukraine for this favor on a whim, but out of pure survival. And to understand it you have to look to the Middle East. The recent coordinated attack by the US and Israel against Iran, which culminated in the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has unleashed chaos. The Iranian response has caused a blockage de facto of the Strait of Hormuz, 20% of the world’s daily oil supply passes through this maritime funnel. The impact has been devastating: hundreds of ships are paralyzed, insurance premiums have shot up by up to 50% and the daily cost of renting a supertanker has risen by 600%. This has destroyed European plans.As analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera emphasizesEuropean sanctions have collided head-on with thermodynamics, and thermodynamics has won. With the EU’s gas reserves at 30% in mid-February, Qatar’s LNG trapped after the Hormuz blockade and the alternatives of Norway, Algeria and the US at the limit of their capacity, Europe has been left without a plan B. “The EU does not return to Russian oil because it wants to, it returns because it has no other option,” says Perera. So, are we once again dependent on Russia? For some EU countries, dependency was never cut. According to The Moscow TimesHungary and Slovakia continued to enjoy legal exemptions from European sanctions and were almost 100% dependent on the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline, receiving some 150,000 barrels per day in January. The reason is purely economic, since Russian crude oil is between 13% and 20% cheaper. Although Croatia has offered its Adria pipeline (JANAF) to ship non-Russian oil to these countries, Euronews explains that Budapest resists. Orbán considers that it is not commercially viable, demands that Croatia allow the passage of sanctioned Russian oil and defends that its energy security cannot be an “ideological” issue. Curiously, while Europe suffers from its dependence, Russia observes the crisis of its allies from afar. According to an analysis of the cnnFollowing Khamenei’s death, the Kremlin has issued strong verbal condemnations but has refused to provide real military aid to Iran. Ukrainian military analysts note that Russia even refused to “blind” Israeli radars using its bases in Syria. Moscow, bogged down in Ukraine, does not have the resources to open new fronts, demonstrating that its alliances are more transactional than strategic. The pipeline crisis has mutated into lethal financial blackmail for kyiv. As noted Financial TimesHungary has vetoed the approval of an EU aid package for Ukraine worth €90 billion (scheduled for 2026-2027). Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó made it clear: there will be no money until oil flows through the Druzhba again. In Brussels, the European Commission is looking for shortcuts. Euronews points out that complex legal options are being consideredsuch as invoking Article 327 (which prevents countries excluded from an agreement from blocking the rest) or using the withholding of defense funds (the SAFE program) to pressure Orbán, who is in the midst of an election campaign. In the midst of the crossfire, diplomacy tries to survive. Deutsche Welle reports that Zelensky remains open to negotiating an end to the war with Russia. Although the talks were scheduled for March in Abu Dhabi, the instability in the Middle East due to Iranian missiles has led the Ukrainian leader to propose moving the dialogue table to Switzerland or Turkey. The great silent winner and European weakness While the West hyperventilates, calm reigns in Asia. China foresaw this scenario and he has been shielding himself for years. During 2025, $10 billion was spent … Read more

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