oil

The world needs to get oil out of the Middle East by any means possible. Their only hope is 30 giant ships queuing in Yanbu

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The landscape off the coast of Yanbu on the Red Sea has completely changed in a matter of days. The area is now taken over by VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers), colossal supertankers capable of swallowing two million barrels of crude oil. They are not there just passing through; Its massive concentration responds to a single objective: to carry out the largest and most urgent evacuation of oil in recent times. A fleet to the rescue of the market. To understand the magnitude of this rescue operation, just look at the figures that provides Financial Times: What is happening is a real “flotilla of supertankers” sailing against the clock. About 30 of these giants head to Yanbu, when the usual thing is that only two arrive a month. The reason is that traffic in the Persian Gulf has come to a “stalemate” following the Iranian attacks. The maritime tracking data it handles Bloomberg give an idea of ​​the urgency: In just 48 hours, at least 25 of these giants have headed to the Saudi port. We are talking about a fleet with room to load some 50 million barrels that, otherwise, would have no outlet. It is an essential escape valve right now. The blockade has already caused world production to fall by 6% and the plug is so big that neighbors like Iraq and Kuwait they have had to start closing wells because, simply, they have run out of room in their tanks to store the oil. The “sea bridge” to avoid Iran. How do these ships load oil if they do not enter the Gulf? The answer is in the desert, but the result is seen in the port. Saudi Arabia is using your pipeline East-West like a turnstile. The crude oil travels overland 1,200 kilometers to Yanbu, where the “army” of ships awaits it to distribute it to the world, especially China and India. According to Wall Street Journal, This infrastructure has become “one of the most critical pieces of the world economy” overnight. The CEO of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, confirmed in this medium that they are reaching their maximum capacity: 7 million barrels per day flowing westward. Of them, 5 million are destined directly to be loaded on these supertankers for global markets. The risk does not disappear, it just changes coordinates. But sailing to Yanbu is not a safe ride. As he warns Financial Times, The ships must now “challenge the notorious hotspot of Houthi attacks.” To leave for Asia, these supertankers have to cross the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Although the Yemeni group had signaled a pause in its attacks, experts from EOS Risk They assure that the tankers continue to assume an “enormous risk”, since the area is within reach of Iranian missiles. Even the port of Fujairah in the Emirates, which is also trying to act as an escape route, is already has suffered damage from drone attacks last week. The message is clear: the alternative is less dangerous than Hormuz, but it is not immune to war. The limits of the plan. The big question for markets is whether this armada of ships and desert pipelines can prevent economic collapse. The closure of Hormuz has taken 20 million barrels per day off the board and physical reality imposes its limits on the alternative route. On the one hand, there is a critical funnel in the port itself. According to data from the Argus Media agencyalthough the Saudi pipeline manages to transport up to 7 million barrels, the Yanbu terminals only have real capacity to load between 4 and 4.5 million a day on ships. Inevitably, supertankers will have to queue. On the other hand, the distillate crisis looms. As experts cited by Middle East Eyethe East-West pipeline transports crude oil, not refined products. No matter how many ships fill up in Yanbu, markets like Europe are left without their vital supply of diesel and aviation fuel, which is usually processed in the unreachable refineries of the Middle East. According to Sparta Commodities in statements for WSJwith this route only half of the problem has been “solved.” There are another 10 million barrels that are still trapped with no possible way out. Therefore, it is no longer “crazy” for a barrel to reach $200. The demand for oil is “inelastic”; the economy cannot stop consuming it from one day to the next, which generates brutal upward pressure. The geopolitics of “the worse the better” While ships maneuver in the Red Sea, in Washington the focus is purely strategic. Donald Trump has made it clear that stopping Iran is the priority, even above the price of gasoline. “We make a lot of money when prices rise,” the president even published on his social networks, emphasizing that the US, as a large producer, can afford a resistance that other countries do not have. For its part, the historic opening of the IEA’s strategic reserves (400 million barrels) attempts to “buy time,” but as analyst Javier Blas says, nothing replaces to the actual opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Image | Photo by Khristina Sergeychik on Unsplash Xataka | China has just found a hole in the US’s quietest weapon: an algorithm has hacked its B-2s in Iran

Strangely enough, Iran is exporting more oil now in the middle of the war than before the conflict

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The global crude oil market is experiencing “the largest supply disruption in history,” as the International Energy Agency warns. But the almost total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz hides a brutal irony: the same waters that are closed to the rest of the world are being used by Iran to export more oil than it sold before the war. The incessant flow. Far from paralyzing, the Iranian export machinery has accelerated. According to data from Kpler, In recent days, ships have loaded a daily average of 2.1 million barrels of Iranian crude oil, surpassing the barrier of the 2 million daily they exported in February. The big question is where all this crude oil is going. The answer is unanimous: towards China. A graph of Statista illustrates that the Asian giant It is, by an overwhelming margin, Iran’s largest buyer, accounting for 90.8% of its oil exports in 2024. Since the war began in late February, at least 11.7 to 12 million barrels have crossed the strait bound for China, according to estimates from TankerTrackers and Kpler collected by CNBC. In fact, how to detail Wall Street Journal, There is an anecdote that borders on the surreal to illustrate this situation: small Chinese tankers navigate the strait communicating by shortwave radio with the Revolutionary Guard. “We are a Chinese ship. We are going to pass; we are friendly,” they announce in English to ensure safe passage. A question of survival. As an expert explains consulted by Deutsche WelleChina has become the “indispensable lifeline” for Iranian exports in a context of harsh Western sanctions. This has created a “parallel market” where independent Chinese refiners buy discounted crude oil by operating outside the US financial system, according to the agency Anadolu. However, global panic is evident. The crisis promptly shot up oil prices close to $120 per barrel, levels not seen in four years. The impact has been such that, how to explain BloombergBeijing has ordered its refineries to cancel export shipments of refined fuel to ensure domestic supply in the face of the volatility of the conflict. The dilemma of Kharg Island. Although the United States and Israel have bombed thousands of military and strategic targets in Iranian territory, there is one enclave that remains mysteriously intact: Kharg Island. This small piece of land, just about 20 square kilometers, is the true jewel in the energy crown, channeling 90% of the country’s crude oil exports. According to analysts Guardian and France 24the answer is economic terror: an attack on Kharg could catapult the price of a barrel to $150, sending global markets into a “nose dive.” Also, how my colleague Carlos Prego explains in Xatakadestroying the facilities would deprive a hypothetical successor government of the main source of income necessary to rebuild the country once the war ends. Iranian evasion tactics. Iran’s export success is not based only on military intimidation, but on complex sanctions evasion engineering. According to The Wall Street Journalthe regime uses a “shadow fleet” made up of old oil tankers that sail without tracking systems and under false flags, such as those of Comoros or Guyana. On a financial level, the sophistication is just as high. Intelligence documents revealed by Euractiv show that Iran uses shell companies in China to carry out euro-denominated transactions, moving hundreds of millions through accounts at European banks such as Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas. Simultaneously, a report of ACAMS exposes how the Revolutionary Guard uses the cryptocurrency ecosystem (with multi-million dollar transactions in stablecoins such as USDT) to launder money and finance their affinity groups without going through traditional banking. Finally, although Iran is trying to diversify its departures using the Jask terminal in the Gulf of Oman – thus avoiding the Strait of Hormuz -, CNBC warns of its extreme inefficiency: Loading a supertanker there can take up to 10 days, compared to the one or two days it takes in Kharg. Triumph in the midst of chaos. The conflict in the Middle East has drawn a counterintuitive scenario. While the large producers of the Persian Gulf are bleeding economically due to the paralysis of trade routes, Iran has capitalized on the chaos. The panic of a global energy collapse acts as an invisible shield that protects the island of Kharg from Western bombing. Under this umbrella of armed immunity, war has not suffocated the Islamic Republic; On the contrary, it has given it a maritime monopoly that allows its ghost fleet to continue feeding insatiable Chinese demand in broad daylight. Image | Photo by Fredrick F. on Unsplash Xataka | China just found a hole in the US’s quietest weapon: an algorithm has hacked its B-2s in Iran, and they have the audio

If the oil apocalypse becomes a reality, Spain has known for years how long it can last: 92 days

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Faced with the logistical blockage of Hormuz that threatens to drown the global economy, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has decided to press the red button. The organization has proposed the largest release of oil reserves in its history: about 400 million barrels. To put it in context, this figure is more than double the 182 million barrels that were injected into the market in 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Spain, as a member of the IEA, will not be left out. How to collect Europe Pressthe vice president and minister for the Ecological Transition, Sara Aagesen, has confirmed our country’s support for this plan. If the proposal is approved unanimously, Spain will contribute to the market the equivalent of about 12 or 12.5 days of its national consumption. The Spanish bunker. All this movement leads us to the big question: how much margin does Spain really have if the situation becomes entrenched? Legally, there is a global obligation to maintain minimum security stocks equivalent to 92 days of sales or computable consumption. According to calculations of The CountryAdding all the capacities, the country has about 105 days of autonomy. This safety mattress works through a mixed system: The Corporation of Strategic Reserves of Petroleum Products (CORES) must maintain 42 of those dayswhile the remaining 50 days are maintained directly by the industry. Currently, CORES custody more than 5.4 million cubic meters of stocks. It’s not just crude oil. To be truly useful in a crisis, CORES reserves are composed by 54.4% diesel, 29.2% crude oil and 6.0% kerosene. stocks They are strategically distributed by Spanish geography. The Levante area accounts for 44.8% of the total, followed by the central area with 19.2% and the northern area with 17.7%. The objective of these reserves is not to replace normal long-term supply, but to inject fuel into the market to stop sudden price increases and buy vital time to reorganize logistics and trade routes. We can’t relax. Just because we have a margin of three months does not mean that we are invulnerable. Spain is a country with almost absolute foreign energy dependence. In 2024, national oil consumption was 1,322,492 barrels per daybut own production barely reached 76,947 barrels. Our net crude oil imports represent more than 100% of our consumption. Furthermore, our economy she is addicted to black goldespecially to move. The transport sector is responsible for 71.1% of the final consumption of petroleum products in Spain, with diesel/diesel being the undisputed king, accounting for 61.1% of that consumption. The Iranian asphyxiation has a crack. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have activated a logistical “antidote” capable of rescuing up to 7 million barrels per day. The main asset is East-West Pipelinean oil pipeline connecting eastern Saudi fields with the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The machinery is already in motion, there is already an “army” of at least 25 supertankers sailing towards Yanbu to load this crude oil. Adding to this effort is the United Arab Emirates pipeline, which provides up to 2 million additional barrels directly to the Gulf of Oman. The refinery factor. But the macroeconomy hits a wall, Saudi oil pipelines transport crude oil, not diesel. As analyst Arne Lohmann Rasmussen warns, the real danger is the deficit of distillates. If Europe does not have enough refineries to process that oil in time, the desert pipelines are of no use. This is where the CORES bunker win the game. The 54.4% of already refined diesel that Spain stores is the only thing that guarantees that the trucks do not stop. In short, the Saudi “antidote” prevents total collapse, but our reserves buy the 100 days of peace necessary to avoid seeing the pump in the clouds. If diplomacy fails, not even the bunker will avoid the historic scare. Image | Volgotanker Xataka | The price of oil has plummeted overnight. The one at the gasoline pumps will remain the same

The price of oil has plummeted overnight. The one at the gasoline pumps will remain the same

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Just 24 hours. That’s how long it has taken the global oil market to go from historic panic to almost euphoric relief. On Monday, a barrel of Brent – ​​the benchmark in Europe – was close to $120, its highest level since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It seemed the prelude to an imminent recession driven by the war between the United States, Israel and Iran. However, today we woke up with crude oil plummeting, reaching below 90 dollars. And no, there is no peace treaty signed in Geneva, no withdrawal of troops, nor the reopening of maritime trade routes. Everything has depended on the president of the United States, Donald Trump, assured the chain CBS News that the war with Iran was “virtually complete” and promised reporters that the conflict would end “very soon.” And so, by the art of discursive magic, the price has begun to fall. The nonsense of a market driven by headlines. What has happened these days gives a good account of the current state of the financial markets: they operate based on immediate speculation, not on physical reality. As the analysts summarize cited by Financial Timesthis stock market reaction is known as Taco trade (acronym of Trump always chickens outor “Trump always chickens out”). Investors don’t believe the war is really over; They simply assume that Trump needs to lower the price of gasoline at all costs so as not to sink in the legislative elections. In fact, to force this price drop on the screens of Wall Streetthe White House has had to resort to desperation. Trump has even suggested that he will temporarily lift oil sanctions on some countries — including the possibility of easing the punishment for Russia itself— and even the G7 has considered releasing strategic reserves emergency. The financial market bought the headline and the price of a barrel fell. But the real world tells a very different story. Reasons to distrust the optimism of the stock market. It is logical to view this price drop with skepticism. The Brent chart can go down as much as it wants on investors’ screens, but the real logistical problem remains intact. He Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) warns that the threat is real and palpable: The great logistical bottleneck: The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. This has taken 20 million barrels a day out of circulation. The physical danger: Iranian speedboats, naval mines and drones prevent oil tankers from sailing. Collapse on land: The situation is so extreme that, since ships cannot sail, storage tanks on land have been filled to the brim, forcing wells to be closed. Furthermore, the supposed unilateral peace announced by Trump clashes head-on with Tehran’s position. According to Financial TimesIran’s Revolutionary Guard assures that its armed forces “are waiting for the US Navy.” As analyst Kurt Cobb points out in oil priceIran defines victory as the survival of its regime, so a negotiated cessation of hostilities is, today, a chimera. The “rocket and boom” effect at the pump. This is where macroeconomics collides with citizens’ pockets. It doesn’t matter if the barrel of Brent drops overnight in international markets, you won’t see that relief today at the gas station. As my colleague Alberto de la Torre explained a few days ago, in Xatakathe fuel market suffers a very particular effect: Skyrocket: When the supply chain falters, the price skyrockets quickly. Gas stations act in anticipation and raise prices to cover the future cost at which they will have to replace that fuel, regardless of the fact that the impact of the barrel of Brent is not yet real on their purchases. Drops like a feather: When the barrel drops in the stock market, the drops at the pump last for weeks or months. There is very little room for maneuver, a lot of caution in case war breaks out again, and a clear resistance to lowering prices at the same dizzying pace at which they rose. And why does diesel increase more than gasoline? The biggest loser of this crisis is the diesel customer, who in Spain has suffered increases of 20 cents per liter in just one week. Europe has a structural problem: we lost Russia as a major exporter, we have fewer operational refineries and we have a strong deficit. Furthermore, its demand is much more inelastic; The driver of a car can decide to take the subway if gasoline prices rise, but the freight transporter, the farmer or the industrial machinery must refuel with diesel, no matter what the cost. The disbelief of the industry itself. The lack of faith in this “express peace” is shared even by the oil magnates themselves. In an insightful article published in oil priceDan Doyle, businessman in the sector fracking American, confesses that the shale industry is not buying this rebound. Despite having touched $100, oil companies are not hiring more drilling platforms or starting large extraction campaigns. They know that the “fast dollars of war will dissipate” and prefer to maintain strict capital discipline. And although The Conversation remember that the United States is less vulnerable today to oil shocks because it exports millions of barrels a day, the psychological toll of seeing the scoreboard rise at the gas stations continues to damage consumer confidence globally. Missile climbs, rowing descents. Today, the world’s stock markets have closed with green numbers. Investors have bought into the optimism of a press conference in Florida, and algorithms have adjusted the price of Brent downwards. However, geography remains stubborn. Large oil tankers remain anchored without daring to cross the Strait of Hormuz, maritime insurers continue to tremble and wells in the Middle East continue to close due to lack of space. Tomorrow, when you approach the gas station in your neighborhood before going to work, the illuminated panel will remind you of the golden rule of today’s energy market: in times of geopolitical uncertainty, the downs travel in a rowboat, but the ups fly in … Read more

The EU has a perfect plan to suffocate Russia. The problem is that now it needs its oil to survive

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In December 2025, we said goodbye to the year by telling Vladimir Putin a resounding da svidániya (До свида́ния). The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the Commissioner for Energy, Dan Jørgensen, pompously announced a political agreement to end Russian gas imports (both by pipeline and liquefied) by 2027. The political message was crystal clear: Europe wanted to show that it was no longer dependent on Moscow. The blackmail was over. But in its eagerness to celebrate the blackout of Russian gas, Brussels forgot a small detail: Putin’s oil still runs through the veins of Eastern Europe. And the embargo, in reality, has lasted very little. Barely three months later, physical reality has imposed itself on diplomacy. Today we find ourselves with a brutal paradox: the same European Union that designed an unprecedented economic war architecture against Moscow, and that asked its citizens to make sacrifices in the name of collective security, is now pressuring invaded Ukraine to open the tap on Russian crude oil. Deep down in the Kremlin, Putin always knew that the laws of politics rarely win against dependence on infrastructure. The epicenter of this crisis has its own name: the Druzhba pipeline (Interestingly, “friendship” in Russian). As revealed by an exclusive from Financial Timesthe EU is pressuring kyiv to allow inspection and repair of this infrastructure that transports Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia. The problem lies in a Russian attack that occurred on January 27. As detailed ReutersUkrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal confirmed that a bombing severely damaged the sensors and internal equipment of the infrastructure. The story is expanded by the CEO of Naftogaz, Sergii Koretskyi, in statements to Financial Times: The attack caused a storage tank with 75,000 cubic meters of oil to catch fire, unleashing a fire the size of a football field that took 10 days to extinguish. Ukraine claims that repairing this in the middle of war is slow and dangerous. However, Hungary and Slovakia do not buy this version. According to EuronewsPrime Ministers Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico have created a joint investigative committee, demanding immediate access to the area. Orbán has gone further, accusing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of lying and orchestrating “state terrorism” and, together with Fico, demands that an independent investigation mission be deployed on the ground to verify the damage, something that kyiv refuses for security reasons in the middle of the war. The perfect storm in the Middle East Europe is not asking Ukraine for this favor on a whim, but out of pure survival. And to understand it you have to look to the Middle East. The recent coordinated attack by the US and Israel against Iran, which culminated in the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has unleashed chaos. The Iranian response has caused a blockage de facto of the Strait of Hormuz, 20% of the world’s daily oil supply passes through this maritime funnel. The impact has been devastating: hundreds of ships are paralyzed, insurance premiums have shot up by up to 50% and the daily cost of renting a supertanker has risen by 600%. This has destroyed European plans.As analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera emphasizesEuropean sanctions have collided head-on with thermodynamics, and thermodynamics has won. With the EU’s gas reserves at 30% in mid-February, Qatar’s LNG trapped after the Hormuz blockade and the alternatives of Norway, Algeria and the US at the limit of their capacity, Europe has been left without a plan B. “The EU does not return to Russian oil because it wants to, it returns because it has no other option,” says Perera. So, are we once again dependent on Russia? For some EU countries, dependency was never cut. According to The Moscow TimesHungary and Slovakia continued to enjoy legal exemptions from European sanctions and were almost 100% dependent on the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline, receiving some 150,000 barrels per day in January. The reason is purely economic, since Russian crude oil is between 13% and 20% cheaper. Although Croatia has offered its Adria pipeline (JANAF) to ship non-Russian oil to these countries, Euronews explains that Budapest resists. Orbán considers that it is not commercially viable, demands that Croatia allow the passage of sanctioned Russian oil and defends that its energy security cannot be an “ideological” issue. Curiously, while Europe suffers from its dependence, Russia observes the crisis of its allies from afar. According to an analysis of the cnnFollowing Khamenei’s death, the Kremlin has issued strong verbal condemnations but has refused to provide real military aid to Iran. Ukrainian military analysts note that Russia even refused to “blind” Israeli radars using its bases in Syria. Moscow, bogged down in Ukraine, does not have the resources to open new fronts, demonstrating that its alliances are more transactional than strategic. The pipeline crisis has mutated into lethal financial blackmail for kyiv. As noted Financial TimesHungary has vetoed the approval of an EU aid package for Ukraine worth €90 billion (scheduled for 2026-2027). Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó made it clear: there will be no money until oil flows through the Druzhba again. In Brussels, the European Commission is looking for shortcuts. Euronews points out that complex legal options are being consideredsuch as invoking Article 327 (which prevents countries excluded from an agreement from blocking the rest) or using the withholding of defense funds (the SAFE program) to pressure Orbán, who is in the midst of an election campaign. In the midst of the crossfire, diplomacy tries to survive. Deutsche Welle reports that Zelensky remains open to negotiating an end to the war with Russia. Although the talks were scheduled for March in Abu Dhabi, the instability in the Middle East due to Iranian missiles has led the Ukrainian leader to propose moving the dialogue table to Switzerland or Turkey. The great silent winner and European weakness While the West hyperventilates, calm reigns in Asia. China foresaw this scenario and he has been shielding himself for years. During 2025, $10 billion was spent … Read more

China spent 10 billion on oil it did not need. With Hormuz blocked, the puzzle finally makes sense

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As the West panics over the possibility of the barrel break the $100 barrieran eerie calm reigns in Beijing. The Asian giant observes the crisis with the coldness of someone who has already done his homework. During the last few months, the world has been debating the excess oil supply, but the real winner of this war crisis is not firing missiles, but has been filling its storage tanks for years in the most absolute silence. World geopolitics has been blown up a few weeks before the expected summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. As reported Nikkei Asiathe coordinated airstrikes of the United States and Israel (dubbed “Operation Epic Fury“) have culminated in the assassination of the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Tehran’s response has been a rain of missiles and drones on American allies in the region. The immediate impact has been felt in the water. The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 million barrels a day flow (20% of the world’s oil supply), is blocked de facto. As detailed Bloomberg, Rates to hire a supertanker on the route from the Middle East to China have skyrocketed by 600%, reaching $200,000 a day (or 525 Worldscale points for a Suezmax). Besides, France 24 points out that insurers They have increased war risk premiums between 25% and 50%. As reported cnnBrent crude oil jumped 6.5% in the early stages, touching $82, driven by fear of prolonged logistical disruptions. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, warned the US chain that closing Hormuz would cause an immediate global energy crisis. China’s exposed vulnerability On paper, the Donald Trump administration’s offensive should be an absolute nightmare for Xi Jinping. As explained The TelegraphAmerican military adventurism is exposing the gigantic energy vulnerability of China, the largest oil importer in the world, which buys three-quarters of the crude oil it consumes abroad. Washington’s strategy seems clear: suffocate the “rebellious” suppliers that supply the Chinese industrial machinery at bargain prices. Earlier this year, the military capture of Nicolás Maduro has established what some analysts They already call the “Donroe Doctrine”. Trump has been explicit in his goal to control oil. If the United States manages to add Venezuelan production to that of Guyana and its own, it would de facto control 30% of the world’s reserves, according to JP Morgan. This movement cuts supply to China in the bud, evaporating imports that represented around 4% of its maritime purchases. according to data from Kpler collected by The Financial Review. However, Washington’s optimism collides with geology: the infrastructure is so in ruins that loading a supertanker today takes five days and the crude oil arrives so “dirty” that the Chinese and Indian refineries themselves have canceled orders, according to a Reuters investigation. Refloating this industry will cost 10 billion dollars annually for a decade, as Francisco Monaldi calculatesdirector of energy policy at Rice University. For its part, the current blow to Iran. From Chosun Daily details that China bought 80% of Iranian maritime exports last year (about 1.38 million barrels per day), which represents 13.4% of Beijing’s total maritime crude oil imports. As he points out Institute for Energy Research (IER) United States, cited by the same mediumChina has used the heavily sanctioned and cheap oil from these countries to cement its manufacturing competitiveness. Losing Iran and Venezuela would force Chinese refiners — especially the independent ones in Shandong, known as “teapots” — to look for much more expensive substitutes on the open market, threatening to import inflation and slow their economic growth. The master plan in execution If Western analysts expected to see China cornered, they were wrong. Beijing foresaw this scenario of isolation and has been executing a four-pronged master plan for years that today allows it to cushion the blow of Hormuz. While in 2025 the world feared a global oversupply, China dedicated itself to massive purchasing. Last year, China spent $10 billion buying an extra 150 million barrels that it didn’t immediately need, absorbing more than 90% of crude oil storage measurable globally. Supported by a new Energy Law that obliges the public and private sector to maintain reserves, Beijing today has strategic reserves equivalent to at least 96 days of imports, according to The Telegraph. Under the banner of national security, China is investing $80 billion annually in its state oil fields. In March 2025 they reached a production peak of 4.6 million barrels per day and they completed the drilling of the deepest oil well in Asia (10,910 meters). Its goal is not financial profitability, but pure autonomy. With Iran and Venezuela under fire, China has simply turned its head toward Russia and Saudi Arabia. According to oil price, Chinese refineries are absorbing record amounts of Russian crude oil (more than 2 million barrels per day in February 2026), taking advantage of the fact that India has given in to pressure from the US to stop buying from Moscow. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia has cut the official price of its crude oil Arab Light to five-year lows to gain market share in Asia, which has led China to order between 56 and 57 million Saudi barrels by March. China’s definitive move is to abandon the oil board. As analyzed by Professor Hussein Dia in The ConversationChina’s massive commitment to electric vehicles (50% of new car sales last year) and renewable energy is a national security policy. How they collect in The Telegraph, The new five-year plan (2026-2030) seeks to peak oil consumption by accelerating the installation of solar and wind parks (430 gigawatts added last year alone). Unlike the ships in Hormuz, sunlight cannot be blocked by the US Fifth Fleet. The diplomacy of silence and the illusion of OPEC+ In the face of Khamenei’s assassination, the response of the Chinese Foreign Ministry has been one of calculated coldness. They condemned the act as “unacceptable” and a “violation of sovereignty,” but, as pointed out Chosun Dailythey carefully avoided directly mentioning Donald Trump. From Nikkei Asia explains this pragmatism: … Read more

Iran has put the price of oil at stake by attacking it with drones

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The world stage is Monday, a Monday marked by Iran bombing by the United States and Israel last Saturday. Iran has not sat idly byresponding with something it has already used in the past: suicide drones to attack bases of the allies of the aggressor countries. They have attacked Dubaibut also Saudi Arabia, causing the closure of one of the key refineries globally: Ras Tanura. And the result is -another- earthquake in the world market. In short. A few hours ago, Saudi Arabia and Aramco (the oil company) made the decision to stop production at the refinery Ras Tanura. The decision came when Saudi defenses intercepted several remains of Iranian drones. They did not impact, but their remains have caused some fires within the storage facilities of the power plant. Ras Tanura. We are talking about some of the largest refineries in the world, with an estimated capacity of about 550,000 barrels per day. Its closure implies that the export operations associated with the complex stop, which is addition to the closure of other energy infrastructures in the region, such as gas infrastructure in Israel and Kurdistan. As pointed out Bloombergthe problem is that Ras Tanura is one of the key refineries in the transportation fuel segment, specifically diesel, and not only have operations stopped, but very close is one of Aramco’s largest export terminals for refined products. This is the Strait of Hormuz, with dozens of ships waiting Hormuz. Uncertainty and military operations are once again causing the Strait of Hormuz to become abuzz. Hormuz is, after Malacca, the second largest oil corridor in the worldand a disturbance in normal functioning causes the entire chain to wobble. Uncertainty is causing a monumental bottleneck with ships stopped on both sides of the strait, waits that do not know when they will end, rescheduling, diversions to other ports and, ultimately, chaos in oil transportation. Impact. And you can already guess how the market is responding. Crude oil is one of the economic thermometers today, and the initial reaction has been as expected: a strong rise in prices. The barrel has risen around 10% in some markets after learning of the closure of the refinery, but it is already estimated that they could rise more than 20% if the situation continues and the strait closes. How much? Well, it is currently around $80, more than $100, according to some analysts, and it depends on how long the situation lasts that we begin to see how this price increase affects the fuel market. Vital. It is not the first time that refineries in the area have been attacked. They have become essential enclaves in the country’s economy, but also in global geopolitics. As pointed out Reuterssuch an attack is not just another military action, “it marks a significant escalation in violence.” It implies that Iran has the Gulf’s energy infrastructure in its sights because it knows its importance to the economy of the entire globe. And, evidently, an attack on its plants could cause Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors to join the US and Israeli military operations against Iran. Now, Iran has also been ‘touched’ by that basic infrastructure for its economy. The country is the third largest producer in OPEC and on February 28, explosions were reported on the island of Kharg, where process 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports. In the end, it is one more example of the domino effect and the fragile nature of the supply chain for a basic good. It’s just a part of a perfect storm whose consequences are far from reaching their ceiling. Images | MarineTrafficUS Army, VALGO In xataka | Europe believed it had won the gas war against Russia. Now it faces a much more uncomfortable reality: its dependence on the United States.

Russia set up a secret network to sell 90 billion in oil. It has fallen due to using the same mail server

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In the geopolitical chess of international sanctions, where Western governments design complex legislation to suffocate Vladimir Putin’s war machine, sometimes checkmate comes not from a brilliant diplomatic maneuver, but from corporate stinginess. An entire global smuggling network, designed to the millimeter to be invisible to the eyes of Washington and Brussels, has fallen like a house of cards for not wanting to pay separate email bills. A simple saving in computer infrastructure has exposed a monumental flow of black money. a colossal IT blunder (a huge computer error) has brought to light a smuggling network that has moved at least $90 billion worth of Russian oil. As revealed by extensive research of the Finance Timesthis plot is mainly responsible for financing the Kremlin in its war against Ukraine. The British media has identified a network of 48 companies which, on paper, operated completely independently from different physical addresses. However, in practice, they acted in unison to disguise the origin of the crude oil, especially that of Rosneft, the Russian state-controlled oil company. The need to hide these exports became life or death for the Kremlin in October 2025, when the United States imposed direct sanctions to Rosneft and Lukoil. From that moment on, a previously unknown company called Redwood Global Supply was suddenly crowned as the largest exporter of Russian crude oil in the world. This firm, along with the rest of the network, is linked to a group of businessmen of Azerbaijani origin with privileged access to the leadership of Rosneft, led by figures such as Tahir Garayev and Etibar Eyyub. The independent Russian media The Moscow Times has been echoed of this discovery, highlighting a devastating fact: in November 2024, more than 80% of Rosneft’s maritime exports They moved through this network. Sergey Vakulenko, former head of strategy at Gazprom Neft and current researcher at the Carnegie Center, explained to this medium that using fifty shell companies is “an old trick from the 90s” to evade taxes, but he confesses his surprise at the fact that a single network has become so immensely crucial for a giant like Rosneft. The triumph of shadow intermediaries The existence of this network means, quite simply, that the Western sanctions system is full of holes and that Russia has managed to industrialize evasion. According to the investigationthe success of this $90 billion network was based on strict separation of roles to erase the money trail. The network used a group of shell companies exclusively to buy crude oil shipments in Russia, and another group of companies, totally different on paper, to sell them in key markets such as India or China. In this way, the initial buyer and the final seller almost never coincided in customs documents. Furthermore, in most cases, the crude oil was labeled under generic names such as “export mix”, which destroyed any possibility of tracing its origin or checking whether the price cap imposed by the G7 was being respected. As we already explained at the time in Xatakathis modus operandi It is not new and it relies on an architecture of evasion that has been brewing for years in places like the United Arab Emirates. Something very similar happened with the case of Christopher Eppinger, a young trader German that perfectly illustrates how this underworld works. As we detailed in our report, while Europe boasted of energy sovereignty, an army of new intermediaries moved to Dubai—a jurisdiction that does not apply sanctions to Moscow—to make gold. The network now discovered by the British media uses exactly the same tools that we already analyzed: the express creation of opaque companies, the use of the “ghost fleet” (aging ships that turn off their transponders when approaching to load Russian crude oil) and transfers of oil on the high seas to mix it and falsify its origin. The only difference is that the Rosneft network uncovered by the FT was operating on an unprecedented industrial scale… Until they made a rookie mistake on the internet. The rookie mistake This entire sophisticated international network collapsed due to an absurd detail that borders on comedy. He Finance Times discovered that these 48 multi-billion dollar companies shared a single private server for their emails: mx.phoenixtrading.ltd By pulling this digital thread, the journalists of the FT they managed to identify 442 web domains who shared administrative functions of back office on that same server. The next step was pure data mining: they compared the names of those domains with the customs records of Russia and India. Thus, they discovered that the domain foxton-fzco.com It corresponded to Foxton FZCO (based in Dubai), buyer of $5.6 billion in oil; and? advanalliance.ltd It was Advan Alliance, which sold 1.5 billion to India. The desire to create and destroy companies quickly to mislead sanctioners—according to The Moscow Timesthe average lifespan of these signatures is only six months—led the network to centralize your IT infrastructure to reduce costs. A saving that has cost them their anonymity. The show must go on In the short term, the strategy of those involved is denial and adaptation. How to collect Finance Timesboth Tahir Garayev and Etibar Eyyub have categorically denied their involvement in sanctions evasion, calling the accusations “baseless” (curiously, Eyyub sent his denial from an email address hosted on the compromised server). The original company that founded the network, Coral Energy (now 2Rivers), has also disengaged from operations. However, behind the scenes, the machinery is already looking for new avenues. A senior Russian energy executive, speaking on condition of anonymity, summed up the situation in the investigation starkly: “It creates additional costs and inconveniences. But at the end of the day, the show must go on.” The United Kingdom has already reacted to the investigation of the British media, sanctioning nearly 300 entities linked to this “dark web”, blocking Russian ships and banks. The fall of this immense $90 billion network shows that, in the 21st century, bank secrecy and flags of convenience are useless if the system administrator decides … Read more

the increase in abandoned oil tankers

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Abandoning an oil tanker or other commercial vessel has gone from being something rare to becoming a dangerous trend: in 2025 alone there are 410 vessels registered, an abysmal difference compared to the 20 cases in 2016, according to data from the International Transport Workers Federation (ITF), a global trade union organization that tracks these incidents. What is causing this rebound? The first affected: the crew. An abandoned oil tanker does not only mean neglecting the vessel itself, but also more than 6,000 sailors abandoned to their fate, according to ITF global figures. The most affected are Indian sailors, with more than a thousand people affected representing the majority of the total. One case is that of Iván (not his real name), the chief deck officer of an oil tanker that has been abandoned for weeks outside the territorial waters of China, which recently declared for the BBC how this event has affected their health and the environment: “We had a shortage of meat, cereals, fish, basic things to survive.” And that’s not to mention the uncertainty of seeing the Chinese coast and not knowing if you’ll be able to set foot on it. The context: the ghost fleets. Over the last few months we have heard about “ghost ships” or “zombie ships”, that is, ships that legally barely exist, with owners hiding behind front companies. The objective is to operate outside the official financial and regulatory framework to evade sanctions through “prohibited” routes such as Iran, Russia or Venezuela. The Ukrainian War and the context of sanctions have created a B market for old ships that transport oil. The ideal candidates to become ghost banks are aging vessels, generally oil tankers that are around two decades old, a critical age at which the vessel is already headed for scrapping, which makes it easier for them to move into that clandestine scenario. Whoever buys it is not going to invest in long-term maintenance, he wants to pay it off quickly by transporting sanctioned crude oil. These types of boats lack complete insurance such as P&I Clubsso that in the event of any problem, the shipowner disappears before assuming repair or repatriation costs. The legal trap of rental flags. Here the “flags of convenience“, something like the tax haven of the seas. This is what happens when a shipowner registers his ship in a country other than his own to benefit from more lax regulations. There is a legal disconnection between the real ownership of the ship and the state that gives it the flag. And what does it have to do with abandoned oil tankers? According to the ITF82% of abandonments occur on ships that operate under flags of convenience. Among the states with flags of convenience are Panama, Liberia and the Marshall Islands, which represent 46.5% of all merchant ships. But there is one country that deserves a special mention: Gambia. In 2023 it went from having no ships to having 35 sailing under its flag, a record time to create that infrastructure organically. In addition to softer legislation, many of these countries outsource inspections to private organizations and lack sufficient technical personnel to verify it afterwards, such as notes the International Maritime Organization in several reports. Prisons and floating time bombs. Ivan’s is just one case, but what an example: The ship is carrying almost 750,000 barrels of Russian oil that has a nominal value of about 50 million dollars (42 million euros). He left the Russian Far East for China at the beginning of November 2025 and there he is, at the gates of his destination and unable to enter. It is so that the alarms go off due to the environmental risk posed by a possible spill from an abandoned ship without responsibility. Furthermore, the safety of the vessel is compromised, as human error accounts for more than 80% of maritime accidents and these sailors are not exactly at their best. Fortunately, the ITF took charge of the situation in December, providing payroll arrears up to this point, providing groceries and other essentials, and planning repatriation. It is not an isolated problem. The drastic increase in abandoned oil tankers represents not only a violation of international sanctions and regulations, but also a human drama and potential environmental disaster for which there would be no legal responsibility to cover it. Although it is true that there are interventions and approaches and that there are states putting pressure on those countries that are banners of flags of convenience like Gambia and achieving something in the attemptthe reality is that this is a global phenomenon that requires stricter international regulation, serve as an example India’s blacklistwhich included 86 foreign ships in a database for abandonment of sailors and violation of their rights. In Xataka | Fewer and fewer oil tankers are being scrapped, and there is only one reasonable explanation: Russia’s ghost fleet In Xataka | The ships of the oil “ghost fleet” turn off their GPS to avoid being detected. Malaysia is going to hunt them with drones Cover | Jack Dong

The island has so little oil that foreign airlines will not be able to refuel

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There is no fuel. A message as simple as it is terrible. It is the one that the Government of Cuba has sent to foreign airlines. This is what the news agency claims EFEfrom where they point out that none of the island’s airports will be able to refuel planes arriving from abroad. JET A1 FUEL NOT AVBL. That is the message that appeared yesterday in the database of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the United States. “A1 jet fuel not available” is what that message means. It arrived, they assure EFEin a Notam message, one designed to alert pilots and air traffic controllers of a dangerous and unexpected situation. The fuel deficit is confirmation of the problems that the island is having in supplying itself. Without Venezuela supporting and Mexico in clear retreat, the Cuban Government has an almost impossible mission to replenish the 70,000 barrels of oil per day who have stopped coming to the island. And now? The big question is how airlines are going to operate in order to maintain their operations, as far as possible, within normality. The simplest thing, obviously, is to refuel with enough fuel near the island to be able to leave it without impediments. The situation It is not new for airlines who have had to play with restrictions of this type before. The biggest problem is with long-haul direct flights to the island (those in which you have to cross the ocean) because they would have no choice but to stop in countries in the area such as the United States, Mexico or the Dominican Republic, among others. In Xataka We have contacted Iberia. When we write these lines we have not received an answer as to whether they already have an alternative plan on the table. More pressure. The lack of fuel is, as we said, a direct consequence of the strangulation that the United States is carrying out on the country through pressure on countries that until now supplied crude oil to Cuba. Since US special forces will take away by force To Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela is not supplying barrels to a country that, until now, had an oxygen cylinder in its ally. days later, Donald Trump already announced in their own social network that no more oil or money would reach Cuba, in a clear movement to continue suffocating the Cuban regime. These statements referred to oil that arrived from Venezuela But over time we have learned that Mexican oil has not been reaching the Cuban coasts either. In total, it is estimated that it has represented a deficit of 70,000 barrels per day of the 110,000 barrels that Cuba needs to function with a certain normality. Now, this shortage is being felt in air traffic but for a long time people have been living on the streets with Regular power outages that can last more than a day. Humanitarian aid? In its pressure to prevent more oil from reaching Cuba, the United States focused on Mexico. As confirmed France 24a few days after the overthrow of Nicolás Maduro the last successful shipment from Mexico to Cuba occurred. The freighter that was to take over in mid-January never left the port. Claudia Sheinbaum, president of Mexico, has defended her ability to decide whether to “sell or give” crude oil to Cuba. That “da” makes all the sense in the world because, supposedly, since 2024, Mexicans have been delivering oil to Cuba as “humanitarian aid” but according to Pemex accounts Oil worth almost 500 million dollars was sold to Cuba in 2025 and the figure rises to over 1.4 billion euros if the accounts are backdated to 2023. And the company’s own directors have confirmed that they are being paid daily. The question is whether or not Mexico has actually been sending barrels to Cuba as “humanitarian aid.” And it is that chow we count on XatakaWhile the oil business has very tight accounts, the supposed humanitarian shipments are very opaque. Shipments that the United States threatens to collect for itself with more tariffs on countries that help Cuba in managing this crisis. We have already seen this. With Venezuela out of the game, Mexico was supposed to be Cuba’s energy lifeline. Without the entry of oil from abroad, the Cuban Government faces suffocation. The current situation forces the same rationing that was already experienced in the so-called Special Periodwhen the island faced the collapse of the Soviet Union, which was then its safeguard against the American blockade. “How do we farm our land? How do we get around? How do we keep our children in class without fuel? We are going to take measures that, while not permanent, will require effort. What else can we do? Are we going to give up? There is so much to defend,” Miguel Díaz-Canel, president of Cuba, stated just a few days ago. In his speech, Díaz-Canel also sent the message to the United States that they were willing to negotiate: “Cuba is willing to have a dialogue with the United States on any of the issues that we want to debate or discuss.” Less than a week later, the island is experiencing one of the most complicated energy situations in decades. Photo | Tacorontey and Edward Galitsky In Xataka | For the first time, electrified cars are outselling gasoline cars. It is the beginning of the inevitable

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