oil

The ships of the oil “ghost fleet” turn off their GPS to avoid being detected. Malaysia is going to hunt them with drones

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In the crystal clear waters of Southeast Asia, where the Strait of Malacca meets the South China Sea, a war is being fought that does not appear in conventional military reports. There are no trenches, but there are rusty helmets that turn off their GPS signal to disappear from international radars. This is the kingdom of the “ghost fleet”, an ecosystem of lawless ships that, according to the latest researchhas found its safe harbor in Malaysia, doubling its activity in just twelve months. However, the time for impunity appears to be running out: from the use of artificial intelligence to the deployment of naval drones, technology is beginning to illuminate the darkest corners of the ocean. The black market boom. The situation on the east coast of Malaysia has ceased to be an open secret and has become a global security problem. According to the specialized media Seatrade Maritime“ship-to-ship” (STS) oil transfers have recently doubled, going from just seven weekly operations to peaks of fifteen in just one year. This increase responds to an infrastructure designed to circumvent the sanctions imposed on Russia, Iran and Venezuela, using Malaysian waters as a gigantic clandestine service station before the crude oil continues on its way, mainly to China. Analyst Charlie Brown, of the organization UANIhas managed to capture a disturbing reality through satellite images and direct photos. In mid-January 2026, some 60 vessels linked to Iranian oil and another 30 with Russian and Venezuelan cargoes were waiting at anchor in Malaysia’s Exclusive Economic Zone. These ships not only operate outside the law, but they do so under deplorable technical conditions. Images distributed by UANI show tankers with false names broadbrushed on their hulls and flags of convenience hidden under tarps to deceive authorities. The metamorphosis of the threat. What began as a purely economic strategy to keep Moscow’s revenue flowing has mutated into something far more dangerous for European security. As the chronicles of my colleague Miguel Jorge relate in XatakaRussia has converted part of this fleet into covert hybrid warfare platforms. It’s not just about moving barrels; Now these ships incorporate “technicians” who, under a civilian guise, are usually special forces veterans or mercenaries linked to the Wagner group. These agents wield authority that often exceeds that of the ship’s captain and have been accused of photographing military installations and monitoring underwater cables in EU and NATO waters. An example of this tension was experienced with the oil tanker Boracaywhich after embarking Russian technicians in the Baltic, was intercepted by the French navy off Brittany after suspicious drones were detected flying over critical infrastructure in Copenhagen. The ghost fleet is today, in essence, an extension of the Kremlin’s security apparatus sailing with impunity under the flags of countries like Gabon or Gambia. A new fragmented energy order. From the academic level, the Elcano Royal Institute’s analysis highlights that this phenomenon is the symptom of a “deglobalization” of the gas and oil market. In your reportresearcher Gonzalo Escribano explains that international value chains, previously based on efficiency and transparency, are being replaced by “geoeconometrically armored” circuits. Europe finds itself at a crossroads: although it seeks to disassociate itself from Russian energy, the persistence of these black markets complicates strategic autonomy. This fragmentation has even reached the LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) market. According to Bloombergsanctioned Russian gas transfers have been documented in Malaysian waters, a technically much more complex operation than crude oil. The ship Pearlmanaged by an opaque company based in a Dubai hotel, is the face of this new network that desperately seeks buyers in Asia for the gas that Europe no longer wants. The technological response: AI and drones to the rescue. Faced with a fleet that “turns off” the real world by hacking GPS signals (spoofing) and the shutdown of transponders, the response is being purely technological. The middle CNBC highlights thatof the ships loaded with Iranian crude in 2025, 96% made dark transfers and 77% falsified their location. To combat this “blackout”, Ukraine has shown the way with an innovation that has made conventional fleets obsolete: the use of artificial intelligence in naval drones. The drones Be Baby have multiplied its capabilities thanks to AI, allowing precision attacks from thousands of kilometers away. In a recent operation near the Turkish coast, these drones hit Russian ghost fleet tankers, specifically targeting their rudders and propulsion systems. The objective is not to sink them, which would cause an ecological disaster of catastrophic dimensions, but to render them useless and turn them into an unbearable economic burden for those who operate them. This “precision offensive” is forcing insurers and shipping companies to reconsider the risk of collaborating with Moscow, raising the costs of war for the Kremlin. The dilemma of safety and the environment. The proliferation of elderly ships, without liability insurance and with dubious maintenance, is an environmental time bomb. Lars Barstad, CEO of the operator Frontline, warned in the Financial Times that organizations such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) appear to be “sleeping at the wheel”. Barstad notes that it is only a matter of time before a major disaster occurs, as these ships operate outside of any regulatory framework. Meanwhile, diplomatic pressure increases. The US has begun a campaign of aggressive seizures, such as that of the ship Sailor (before Bella 1), which was boarded by the US Coast Guard in North Atlantic waters after a chase from the Caribbean. This “gunboat diplomacy” of the 21st century, analyzed by the Atlantic Councilposes immense legal challenges: once a steel giant full of crude oil is seized, the maintenance and storage costs are astronomical. The end of the shadow. The current geopolitical dashboard report shows that Malaysia, Spain or the waters of the Caribbean are just scenes of a larger battle for visibility. The ghost fleet survives in the shadow of legal ambiguity, but the advance of artificial intelligence and constant satellite monitoring are tightening the fence. As the analysis concludes from my partnerthis is not a frontal … Read more

Mexico was supposed to be giving oil to Cuba out of “humanity.” Now we know that he was charging millions

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On the coast of Veracruz, Mexico’s diplomatic and energy machinery has applied the handbrake. The image of the ship Ocean Marinerdocking in Havana on January 9 with 85,000 barrels of crude oil, seems to be the last postcard of an era that is abruptly closing. As confirmed France 24that was the last successful shipment before geopolitics cut off the flow. His replacement, Swift Galaxywas scheduled to sail in mid-January, but his trip was quietly canceled and he disappeared from the logistical calendar of Mexican Petroleum, how they have advanced in The Country. What happens in Mexican ports is the reflection of a tension that goes beyond commercial matters. After the American intervention in Venezuela on January 3 and the fall of Nicolás Maduro, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, was blunt: “No more money or oil will reach Cuba. Zero.” The threat was accompanied by an executive order that promises tariffs on any nation that supplies crude oil to the island, which Trump has described as a “failed nation.” Caught in this crossfire, Claudia Sheinbaum’s government navigates between two waters. On the one hand, it defends the “sovereignty” of helping a sister nation; On the other hand, in the Washington offices, their own accounting books tell another story: formal businesses and punctual payments that refute the purely humanitarian narrative. Solidarity after the storm From the National Palace, the speech has tried to avoid direct confrontation appealing to history. President Sheinbaum has reiterated that Mexico, faithful to its diplomatic tradition of voting against the blockade from day one, has the sovereign power to decide whether to “sell or give” oil to Cuba. This rhetoric gained strength at the end of 2024. After the collapse of the Cuban electrical system and the devastating passage of Hurricane Rafael in November, the Mexican government started labeling their shipments under the umbrella of “humanitarian aid.” However, here the enigma arises. Although the president assures that there is a humanitarian donation channel other than the commercial one, her administration has not offered specific figures on how many barrels are given away and how many are charged. Everything is opacity in the help, while the business has lights and stenographers, as highlighted The Country. While the political discourse focuses on solidarity, the financial documents are cold and exact. Pemex, which is listed on international markets, cannot afford ambiguities before the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to the information delivered to this regulatory body, the Mexican oil company maintains a current contract with the Cuban government since July 2023 through its subsidiary Wellbeing Gasoline. Far from being a hidden charity, the figures revealed by the director of Pemex, Víctor Rodríguez Padilla, show an active and lucrative commercial relationship. In 2025, Mexico sold oil to Cuba worth 496 million dollars. If we add what has been invoiced since the start of the contract in 2023, the total figure amounts to about 1.4 billion dollars. Rodríguez Padilla was emphatic in denying that Cuba does not pay its debts, a common perception given the island’s crisis. “Of course they pay us! We have a business relationship too. They are very formal in their payments,” the manager assuredclarifying that there are no overdue invoices. To try to minimize the impact of these revelations before the scrutinizing eyes of Washington, Pemex has argued thatAlthough the figures sound high, they are marginal for the company: they represent less than 1% of its crude oil production and just 0.1% of its oil sales. It is an “open” contract that depends on Mexico’s availability, and not an unbreakable commitment. The domino effect: why the tap was turned off The current crisis is not explained only by Mexico’s decisions, but by the collapse of Havana’s historical suppliers. For years, Venezuela was the island’s lifeline, shipping up to 100,000 barrels a day during the time of Hugo Chávez. However, after the capture of Nicolás Maduro and the US intervention in Caracas, these shipments ceased completely in January. as detailed BBC. Mexico then became the last lifeline, sending approximately 20,000 barrels a day, a figure that, although far from the island’s total needs, was essential. to maintain minimum services. The pressure escalated when Republican congressmen, such as Carlos Giménez, put the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) on the table. The threat it was clear: If Mexico continues to oxygenate the Cuban regime, the review of the trade agreement in 2026 could become a nightmare for the Mexican economy. Faced with the risk of tariffs that would damage its own economy, Mexico chose to suspend hydrocarbon shipments. The consequences of this supply cut are immediate and alarming. A graph made with data from Kpler and published by the Financial Times illustrates the seriousness of the moment: Cuba’s crude oil imports have plummeted and, according to the estimates displayed in the report, the island only has oil reserves left for between 15 and 20 days. The situation has raised alarm bells at the United Nations. The Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, he warned through his spokesperson that Cuba is at risk of imminent “humanitarian collapse” if its energy needs are not met. Without fuel, not only do the lights go out; The pumping of drinking water, the transportation of food and the operation of hospitals are stopped. Faced with the impossibility of shipping oil without suffering commercial reprisals, the Sheinbaum government has modified its relief strategy. The president confirmed that, while the Foreign Ministry seeks “diplomatic ways” to resolve the oil issue, Mexico will ship this week shipments of food and basic products managed by the Secretary of the Navy. It is a palliative for a crisis that is, above all, energy. In this maximum pressure scenario, an unexpected edge arises. As Trump closes the oil fence, he has also dropped comments that suggest the door is not completely closed. The American president recently stated that “we are negotiating with Cuban leaders right now,” hinting at conversations about immigration issues and the … Read more

Saudi Arabia already knows the real price of Neom and it is not measured in billions, but in barrels of oil at $90

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Saudi Arabia is mired in a paradox that revolves around barrels of oil. Years ago the kingdom launched an ambitious program to reduce its dependence on ‘black gold’, a key element in its accounts and public treasury. Under the name of ‘Vision 2030’ basically proposed to diversify its economy with a rosary of projects which included large urban developments such as Oxagon, Trojena or the famous The Line. The problem is that the swings in the price of crude oil (the same one from which he wants to get away) is complicating the things. So much so that the kingdom has already been forced to moderate its expectations. What has happened? We told you a few days ago: Saudi Arabia has had to rethink the Neom megaprojects, the program with which the kingdom wants to promote works such as Trojena or The Line, a futuristic city 170 km long, 500 m high and 200 meters wide built from scratch in the middle of the desert. According to Financial TimesNeom’s president, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is now considering a “much smaller” scale. In fact, there is already talk of a drastic cut in The Line and changes also in Trojena. Is it a novelty? Half. Despite the efforts of Saudi Arabia for showing how the works were progressing, the international press has been warning for some time the difficulties (technical, but especially financial) that the kingdom has encountered to carry out its projects. own FT posted a few months ago a report in which he talked about how Neom’s dream is “unraveling.” His last article It goes further however and helps to understand the context. The cuts come after Neom officials commissioned an audit of the project. And although its final conclusions are not yet known, they seem to be strong enough that there are already architects working on the redesign of The Line. Their goal: to turn it into a “modest” project that can take advantage of the infrastructure built in recent years. There is talk of a change in concept, of a Neom that (without giving up the diversification of the Saudi economy) stops focusing on the “cities of the future” to focus on something much more concrete: data centers. The kingdom insists in any case that Neom is a bet that “aims to span generations” and its discourse (at least the public) is far from being defeatist. What is the problem? Beyond the scale and enormous ambition of the projects (only The Line involves building a 170 km city), Riyadh has encountered a perfect storm. Not even her years of waste (or precisely because of them) have prevented her from being forced to rethink some milestones in her initial schedule. The clearest example Trojena leaves it. There, in its ambitious ski resort, the 2029 edition of the Winter Games was going to be held. A few days ago, however, the Asian Olympic Council and its Saudi counterpart announced that the appointment will have to be postponed indefinitely. Financial Times remember that in the medium term the kingdom also has important commitments that will require it to step on the accelerator. The first will arrive with the international fair Expo 2030. The second, with the 2034 World Cup. Click on the image to go to the tweet. And what does the oil look like? If something they usually repeat analysts trying to explain the development of Vision 2030 (and more specifically Neom) is how the price of crude oil is influencing it. The reason is very simple. Although the financing of Vision 2030 does not fall directly into the budget of Saudi Arabia, its implementation does depend on large projects funded by the State. And it receives a large part of its income through oil. Saudi Arabia is the main exporter of crude oil on the planet, which explains that in 2024 this will represent 60% of public income. In general, oil and natural gas accounted for more than 20% of its entire GDP that year. A few months ago Arab Gulg States Institute (AGSI) I remembered that the weight of the oil business in the Government’s tax revenue is today much lower than a decade ago, when it reached 88%, but it has still accounted for close to 63% in recent years. Not only that. Its technicians recognize that the health of Aramco (the Saudi national oil company) is “vital for the health” of the public coffers and the country. Why is it important? By a simple rule of three. The implementation of Vision 2030 depends largely on the Saudi kingdom and its PIF (the Public Investment Fund), sovereign in nature and chaired by Mohammed bin Salman. And the money they receive is closely linked to the progress of the global oil business. In April of last year, in a complicated context, marked by fear of the trade war and differences within OPEC, Reuters warned of how the fall in the price of crude oil would be reflected in Aramco’s dividends… and these, in turn, in the money that would enter the coffers of the Government and the PIF. “The Government and the PIF will receive 32 billion dollars and 6 billion dollars less, respectively,” collected the chronicle signed by Yousef Saba. Already at that time there were experts who pointed out that this snip would take its toll on some of the projects that the kingdom had in its hands. “Saudi Arabia is likely to depend on debt financing and will have to delay or reduce some planned contract awards,” insisted Karen Young of Columbia University, recalling the nation’s deficit. Is there more? Yes. A key fact that in recent months have slipped several analysts and in which affected these days Brad Setser, CFR researcher, following the latest news about Neom and The Line. It is not just a matter of the price of oil rising or falling in the market, it is that Saudi Arabia needs the barrel of Brent to remain at certain … Read more

It is raining so much in the province of Jaén that the olive oil harvest has had a problem: there is too much water

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The “liquid gold” market expected a great recovery after years of drought, but the data you have given the Food Information and Control Agency At the end of December 2025, they have had a significant impact. Especially in the epicenter of oil production in our countrysuch as Jaén, where it has been registered a 45% drop in its accumulated production. Although it is something that hides an important economic paradox: it is selling more than ever. The figures. As detailed by the Ministry of Agriculture itselfthe reality of the current campaign is radically different from the previous one. While in 2024 Jaén accumulated almost 300,000 tons at the end of the year, this 2025 it has remained at half speed with 164,841 tons, which represents a variation of 45.3%. Something that has also been noticed at the national level. What has happened? Although everyone might think that we are talking about the drought that has caused there to be fewer olives, the reality is that excess rain has been the problem. The intense rainfall of November and December 2025, although beneficial for the tree in the long termhave been an obstacle to the harvest. Logically, with the mud it is difficult to enter with the machines to be able to pick the olives or work by hand. This has caused the harvest to be delayed and has affected the yield of the fruit. Other factors. Beyond the excess of rain at the end of this year, we must also highlight the high temperatures that were recorded in the month of June 2025, which damaged the weight of the fruit after spring fruit set that promised a lot, but fell short. Besides, according to COAG Jaénthe delay in taking the olive to the olive mill due to the weather has caused part of the fruit to suffer damage, reducing the final yield. Less oil, but more sales. Even though the silos fill more slowly, the market is extremely active. UPA Andalusia has highlighted that, despite the decrease in production, sales have increased by 10% in the last quarter, with a month of November where oil output reached 129,727 tons. This means that the consumer continues to demand olive oil despite the instability of recent years. Exports are also doing well, with a substantial increase of 44% in Andalusia, which puts pressure on current stocks, which are 13% lower than last year. The price. Without a doubt it is the most important point for the consumer, especially when in the past we have already seen really high prices for olive oil due to a bad harvest. Logic dictates that if supply falls and demand increases, prices should increase, but experts call for considerable caution. Right now, the price of Extra Virgin oil at origin moves between 4.20 and 4.29 euros per liter, and what is expected is that it will remain at a stable price during the year 2026, without major drops to maintain the stability of the sector that needs to cover costs. Images | Kostas Morfiris Nazar Hrabovyi In Xataka | Half of Spain has gone crazy with the question of whether olives make you fat or not. But your biggest problem is not calories.

Chinese oil tankers are arriving in Venezuela and coming up empty. Exactly what the US was looking for

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The map of world power has been redrawn in just one week. What began as a military operation to capture Nicolás Maduro has transformed into an energy earthquake that has left an image for history: the gigantic Chinese supertankers, which for years were the financial lifeline of Caracas, turning around in the middle of the Atlantic. A U-turn in international waters. The ships Xingye and Thousand Sunny —two supertankers (VLCC) with the Chinese flag—have definitively abandoned their course towards Venezuela. As confirmed by the South China Morning Post (SCMP)After weeks of inactivity and uncertainty anchored in the ocean, these colossi return to Asia empty. These ships are not just any oil tankers. According to Reutersare part of a group of three ships dedicated exclusively to the Venezuela-China route to transport the crude oil destined to pay the gigantic Venezuelan external debt. Its withdrawal is the clearest sign that the South American country, now under US control, will not export crude oil directly to its main buyer in the short term. The embargo that Trump does not lift. Although the US president stated last week that China “would not be deprived” of Venezuelan oil, the reality in the ports is different. According to SCMPChina has not received shipments from the state-owned PDVSA since last month, while Washington insists that the oil embargo remains in force. Where does the oil go then? While the Chinese ships return empty, the giants of the trading Global companies such as Vitol and Trafigura are already preparing the first shipments of a $2 billion deal to move 50 million barrels accumulated in inventory. the destiny, as reported by Reutersit will be the United States and other markets like India. China could receive part of this oil, but only if it negotiates with these intermediaries, thus losing its direct and preferential access to the benefit of the discounts it obtained. through its independent refineries or “teapots”. The bill that no one wants to pay. After the euphoria of the military takeover, a financial dilemma of billion-dollar proportions looms. Venezuelan oil has been takenbut it is mortgaged. China financed railways and power plants for decades through more than 600 bilateral agreements. Regarding the debt, the figures estimate around 10,000 million dollars, although other calculations of think tanks they increase the historical debt to more than 60,000 million, much of it structured under the “oil for loans” model. However, the great fear in Beijing is that the new government led by Trump will invoke the doctrine of “hateful debt”. As pointed out expert Cui Shoujunthis legal recourse would allow the new executive to repudiate the loans alleging that the Chinese money did not benefit the people, but rather served to keep the Maduro regime in power. Outrage in Beijing. The response from the Asian giant is firm and has not been long in coming. The official China Daily media has qualified Maduro’s capture and the January 3 military intervention as a “flagrant hegemonic invasion” and an act of “neocolonialism.” In editorials signed by researchers from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the US is accused of using “hard force” to trample international norms and send a message of fear to the rest of the Latin American countries that seek an independent path. A treasure in ruins. The capture of Maduro has put the largest crude oil deposit in the world in the hands of Washington, but the trophy comes with a fine print that could break global financial balances. The infrastructure that the US now inherits It is literally in ruins: Loading an oil tanker today takes five days compared to the only day that was enough seven years ago, and the crude oil arrives “dirty” (with excess salt and water). Reconstruction will require $10 billion annually for a decade. The battle in Venezuela is no longer fought with soldiers, but in the offices where it will be decided who pays the Chinese debt and who repairs PDVSA’s rusty pipes. Meanwhile, the ships Xingye and Thousand Sunny They move away from the Caribbean, symbolizing the end of an era. Image | Unsplash Xataka | The “B side” of the United States landing in Venezuela: a subsoil full of hypothetical rare earths

The US has taken over Venezuela’s oil. The problem is that the package includes a gigantic debt with China

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The map of world power has been redrawn in just one week. The capture of Nicolás Maduro by US forces is not just a regime change; is the birth of the “Donroe Doctrine”, a movement with which Washington seeks to consolidate an energy empire “from Alaska to Patagonia” to control 40% of world production. However, after the military euphoria in the White House, a dilemma of trillion-dollar proportions looms: the oil has been taken, but it is mortgaged, and China demands its bills. The collector at the door. Control of the largest reserves on the planet has put the US face to face with the great creditor of the Caribbean. According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP)the current exposure in a state of “limbo” is estimated at $10 billion, although other estimates by think tanks collected by the same medium raise the historical debt to more than 60,000 million, much of it structured under the “oil for loans” model. But how was this sum arrived at? China needed energy for its industrial rise and Venezuela needed cash. Under this premise, Beijing financed railways, power plants and more than 600 bilateral agreements. Now, the great fear of the Asian giant is that the new government in Caracas —protected by the Trump administration— invoke the doctrine of “hateful debt”. As Cui Shoujun explains in SCMPthis legal remedy would allow the loans to be repudiated, alleging that China’s money did not benefit the people, but rather financed the survival of the regime. It would be the perfect “legal pretext” to clean up the balance sheets before the American oil companies take the reins. The agony of the Chinese state companies and the shield of the “Teapots”. The anxiety in Beijing is not just political, it is corporate. As revealed by Bloomberggiants such as China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) are carrying out damage assessments amid fears that decades of investments will evaporate. Nevertheless, according to information from Reutersthese companies still operate in the country through joint ventures such as Sinovensa, and control rights to reserves amounting to billions of barrels. However, China has an “ace up its sleeve.” A couple of months ago, they were absorbing 90% of measurable crude oil storage. Besides, as detailed by the Financial Timesmuch of the flow of Venezuelan crude oil arrived in China through the “teapots” (independent refineries), which bought the oil at steep discounts to avoid previous sanctions. By taking control of exports, the United States not only recovers crude oil, but also eliminates a key competitive advantage for the Chinese industry, raising its energy costs at a stroke. The technical paradox. Many wonder why Trump would risk so much for oil that seems “bad.” The answer is a necessary technical symbiosisAmerican and Spanish refineries (like Repsol’s) act as “stomachs” designed for heavy crude oil from Venezuela, which needs to be mixed with light oil from the fracking to produce diesel efficiently. However, the prize comes with a bill astronomical repair. The infrastructure is literally in ruins: loading an oil tanker today takes five days compared to the one day that was enough seven years ago, and the crude oil arrives “dirty” (with excess water and salt) due to lack of maintenance. Reconstructing the sector will require 10 billion dollars annually for a decade, to which is added the drama of natural gas: Venezuela today burns in “smoke” the equivalent of the consumption of all of Colombia due to pure technical negligence. The battle of the offices. Trump has taken control of the energy crown jewel, but has found himself with an astronomical repair bill and a Chinese creditor who won’t go away quietly. As the Financial Times warnsif the US decides to also suffocate supplies from Iran after this blow in Venezuela, China could see 20% of its cheap crude oil imports compromised, which would force Beijing into an unpredictable reaction. The real battle did not end with the capture of Maduro; It is just beginning in the offices of Washington and Beijing. Venezuela is the jackpot, but it is a prize that comes with fine print that could go bankrupt the financial balances of half the world. The oil era is not over, but the map of who controls it and who pays for it has been rewritten with blood and debt. Image | Luisovalles Xataka | The war in Ukraine has just met that of Venezuela: that means that its two invaders are facing each other

While the whole world looks at oil, Venezuela’s true treasure is hidden in the basements of London: its gold

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Perhaps the great treasure of Venezuela not oil. In fact, since the United States attacked Caracasa series of theories have begun to be heard loudly that have a common denominator: the greatest Venezuelan loot is thousands of kilometers from the nation, under the soil of the capital of the United Kingdom. The gold trapped in London. Yes, under the streets of the cityin the vaults of the Bank of England, remain immobilized about 31 tons of gold belonging to Venezuela, an asset that in 2020 was valued around 1.4 billion pounds and that today it is worth much more after the strong rebound of the metal price. The capture of Nicolás Maduro for the United States has returned This issue is brought to the international forefront, reopening a question that has been without a clear answer for years: who really has the right to control these reserves. Although global attention often focuses on Venezuelan oil, gold represents about 15% of the country’s foreign reserves and has become a key piece of a political, legal and geopolitical pulse that far transcends Caracas. Recognition and blocking. The origin of the blockage dates back to 2018after a disputed presidential election and the tightening of sanctions promoted by Trump during his first term. The United Kingdom, along with dozens of countries, stopped recognizing Maduro as legitimate president and, under pressure from the Venezuelan opposition, refused to authorize the repatriation of the gold, alleging the risk that it would be used to prop up an authoritarian regime or directly diverted. Added to this, as later revealed former national security advisor John Bolton, an express request from Washington for London to maintain the blockade, which placed the British central bank and the Government at the center of a battle that mixed international law, sanctions and diplomacy. Bank of England A judicial labyrinth. In 2020, Caracas went to court British to claim the gold, arguing that they needed those funds to deal with the pandemic. However, the process became complicated when Juan Guaidó, then recognized by London As interim president, he also claimed ownership of the reserves. The litigation led to a legal tangle about who the Bank of England should obey, a question that remains unresolved even after Guaidó lost international recognition. The result is a legal limbo in which the gold remains immobilized, without any of the parties being able to dispose of it. Piracy accusations. From the Chavista environment, the retention of gold was denounced as an act of “piracy”an accusation made at the time by Delcy Rodríguez, which was later marred by the scandal known as Delcygate following his alleged secret trip to Madrid in 2020 despite an EU entry ban and the alleged sale of Venezuelan bullion. Although Rodríguez has adopted a more conciliatory tone After the fall of Maduro, offering cooperation to the United States, the British position remains firm: Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper has reiterated that London maintains political pressure because it considers it key to force a democratic transition, even underlining the formal independence of the Bank of England in the management of assets. The dangerous precedent. The Venezuelan case is not an exception, but rather part of a trend increasingly controversial: the immobilization of sovereign reserves in a context of growing geopolitical confrontation. We have told it: after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Western countries froze about 300,000 million of dollars from the Russian central bank, largely deposited in Eurocleara measure that has generated tensions with Moscow and has revived the debate about the security of keeping assets abroad. Historically, these sanctions have been rare but not unprecedented, from the Soviet confiscation of Romanian gold in 1918 to blockades of countries like Iran or North Korea in the second half of the 20th century. Global distrust. Thus, the climate of uncertainty is leading many countries to rethink where do you keep your reservesdriving repatriation movements and fueling the recent gold rally as an active refuge. For analysts and central banks, the Venezuelan episode is a clear warning of how politics can interfere with assets that were traditionally considered untouchable. While the Bank of England remains officially silent (and many ingots), Venezuelan gold remains buried under London, converted into a symbol of an increasingly international financial order. more fragile and politicized. Image | Bank of England, Eluveitie In Xataka | The mission in Caracas revealed that the best kept secret in the US is not a drone: it is called DAP and you will not see it in the movies In Xataka | The attack on Venezuela has recovered an uncomfortable truth: that it would not have happened to North Korea for a very simple reason

How Venezuelan crude oil became a risk

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On December 14, 1922, the Los Barrosos-2 well in Venezuela exploded into a 60-meter geyser of crude oil that took a week to stop. As CNN remembersthat ecological disaster set the country on a path of dazzling wealth and political turmoil that has led, a century later, in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro by US forces. While in Washington they celebrate the “Donroe Doctrine”in the control centers of the Cartagena and Bilbao refineries there is a different tension. For Spain, Venezuela is not just foreign policy news; It is an economic black hole of 1,160 million euros. A deficit out of control. The commercial relationship between Spain and Venezuela has gone from being a balanced exchange to a financial abyss. According to data collected by El EconomistaIn 2024, Spain registered a trade deficit of 1,160 million euros with the Caribbean country. It is triple that in 2022 and the highest figure in the last 18 years. The cause is an alarming asymmetry. While our sales barely reach 230 million euros, our purchases have multiplied by 22 since 2021. Spain has become Venezuela’s fourth best customer in the world, behind the US, India and China. However, it is not a diversified purchase but 94.59% of what we import is oil and derivatives. Repsol: the jewel exposed on the board. If there is a proper name in this conflict, it is Repsol. According to Expansionthe Spanish oil company is the company with the most money at stake in the area. Venezuela is not just another asset; is its second largest source of reserves tested in the world (256 million barrels), only behind the United States. This represents almost 15% of the company’s entire underground treasure. But the risk is not only what is underground, but what is owed. Repsol’s equity exposure due to commercial debts of the state-owned PDVSA amounted to 330 million euros in June 2025. In addition, the Spanish oil company extracts 33% of the gas consumed by Venezuela. As the same source points out, without Repsol gas, the Venezuelan economy would come to a standstill, but without Venezuela’s legal security, the Spanish company’s balance sheet could suffer a “hole” of more than 13 billion euros in reserve valuation. The paradox of “heavy food.” Many wonder why Spanish companies insist on a country with obsolete infrastructure. The answer is technical. Venezuela’s oil is “extra-heavy”, dense as tar. Ironically, the oil that the US extracts through fracking is “too good” (light). To produce diesel and asphalt efficiently, Gulf Coast and Spanish refineries need to blend their light crude with Venezuela’s dense “stuff.” However, this is a “gas station without hoses.” The crude oil arrives “dirty” (with excess salt, water and metals) because PDVSA has dismantled pipelines to sell them as scrap. This turns refining into an expensive and risky process that only companies with decades of roots, such as Repsol – since 1993 – dare to manage. The wall of 100,000 million. Trump’s optimism, which already mobilizes private funds of 2 billion dollars led by former Chevron executives, clashes with technical reality. In fact, analysts consulted by The Wall Street Journal They warn that there will not be an immediate miracle. Rebuilding the sector requires an investment of $10 billion a year for a decade. The infrastructure is so deteriorated that PDVSA acknowledges that its pipelines have not been modernized in half a century. The total repair bill amounts to $100 billion. The Trump factor and the “Donroe Doctrine.” In an analysis by market expert Robert Armstrong highlights a paradigm shift: Trump has shown that his geopolitical ideology is above market stability. By capturing Maduro, he has put his legacy at stake for the objective of controlling the energy flow from Alaska to Patagonia. This movement a priori benefits Repsol, which had been negotiating for months to avoid the export blockade. However, the risk is that the US will prioritize the landing of its own colossi (Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips) displacing the European partners that, such as Repsol or the Italian Eni, stayed when the Americans fled during Chávez’s expropriations. A prize with small print. Spain has before it a historic opportunity to recover its investments and lead the reconstruction, given its historical roots. But the 1.16 billion “hole” is only the symptom of a deeper illness: dependence on an asset that requires massive investment to be profitable in a world that is already beginning to say goodbye to fossil fuels. Venezuela continues to be the largest gas station in the world, but today it is a dilapidated facility whose repair bill threatens to stain the balance sheets of the large Spanish company if the transition is not “surgical.” Image | Pexels and Repsol Xataka | Venezuela has shown that the US can find anyone no matter how hidden they are. You only have to invoke one name: RQ-170

Getting hold of Venezuela’s immense oil reserves seems like a “bargain.” It’s actually an engineering nightmare.

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The geopolitical board has been blown up with the establishment of the “Donroe Doctrine.” According to energy analyst Javier Blasthis movement seeks to consolidate an energy empire from Alaska to Patagonia to control 40% of world production. Trump has not hesitated, making it clear that his objective is oil, recovering “stolen” assets and executing a lightning reconstruction led by American oil companies. However, Washington’s optimism clashes with technical reality. Analysts consulted by The Wall Street Journal They warn that there will not be an immediate miracle in the wells. In fact, the market has stopped fearing shortages and has begun to discount a future saturation of crude oil that is already pushing prices down. It’s not “black gold”, it’s asphalt. The narrative of easy success collides with geology. Venezuela It has 303,000 million barrels of proven reserves, but the vast majority is located in the Orinoco Belt and is extra-heavy crude oil. Unlike light oil, it is viscous, dense and does not flow naturally; It is more like tar than fuel. Added to the geological complexity is an alarming degradation of quality. A Reuters investigationbased on internal PDVSA documents, reveals that refiners in India (Reliance) and China (CNPC) have canceled orders or demanded drastic discounts because the crude oil arrives “dirty”, with excessive levels of water, salt and metals. These impurities corrode distillation towers and refining equipment, making processing an expensive and risky process. According to the researcher Luisa Palaciosthe country does not even produce the diluents (gasoline) necessary to transport this crude oil through pipelines, which forces it to depend on imports or inefficient mixtures. Low profitability. Despite the magnitude of the reserves, Venezuelan oil is far from being a profitable business. Its current low profitability is based on three critical pillars that any investor must consider. First of all, geology works against us. According to Forbesextracting this heavy crude oil requires massive and constant technical investment in steam injection and “upgrading” plants to transform the bitumen into a marketable product. Without this expensive technology, the resource is simply inaccessible. Added to this are the structural discounts in the market. As Al Jazeera explainsDue to its high density and sulfur content, this crude oil always trades below markers such as Brent or WTI. With a barrel that could fall to 50-60 dollars in 2026, the profit margin for Venezuela would be reduced to a minimum. The bottleneck: logistics. As an analysis in Bloomberg points outthe infrastructure is literally in ruins because loading a supertanker now requires five days, compared to just one day seven years ago. The collapse is such that the state oil company itself has gone so far as to dismantle oil pipelines to sell them for scrap, while key complexes such as Paraguaná are dying due to lack of maintenance. The rescue recipe. Venezuela dreams of the 4 million barrels per day that marked its rise in the 70s, but the financial reality is a bucket of cold water. Francisco Monaldi, director of energy policy at Rice University, calculates that the energy rescue demands 10 billion dollars a year for an entire decade. A goal as ambitious as it is expensive. However, money is not everything when human capital is lacking. CBCNews remember that In 2003, 23,000 skilled professionals were laid off, many of whom ended up in the Canadian tar sands. Without this talent, American cutting-edge technology has no hands to operate it. Furthermore, giants such as ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips will not move a single drill until legal certainty is guaranteed and settlements are made. billionaire debts of the expropriations of the Chávez era. But why Venezuela if Canada already exists? If crude oil is so “bad” and expensive, why Trump’s interest? The key is a necessary technical symbiosis. Gulf Coast refineries (Texas and Louisiana) They are like “stomachs” Designed for heavy food. Ironically, the oil that the US extracts through fracking is “too good” (too light). To optimize your plants and produce diesel, they need to mix its light crude oil with Venezuela’s heavy crude oil. Rory Johnston and Lino Carrillo they explain thatAlthough Canada’s crude oil is identical to Venezuelan crude, the latter has an unbeatable advantage: it is three days away by ship and has access to deep waters, while Canada suffers from “geographic confinement” due to saturated oil pipelines. Furthermore, by controlling this flow, the US cuts off the supply to “teapot” (independent refiners) of China, which until now bought Venezuelan crude at a discount, thus eliminating a competitive advantage for Beijing. There was a small pulse. Behind Trump’s mobilization, as the New York Times emphasizesChevron has positioned itself as a key player in the entire equation. This desire to go after Venezuelais also explained because it had a single major oil company that has maintained its presence in the country since 1923, surviving nationalizations and crises while competitors such as ExxonMobil left the board. There is a hidden treasure. Beyond oil, Venezuela is a “gas station” that wastes its own product. Luisa Palacios and The Kobeissi Letter The 200 billion cubic feet of natural gas stand out (the largest reserve in the region). Due to pure technical negligence, PDVSA today burns or vents an amount of gas equivalent to the consumption of all of Colombia, losing 1 billion dollars annually in smoke. Added to this is the potential of Mining Bow with critical minerals (nickel, coltan, bauxite) essential for the defense and technology industry. The paradox of the “gas station without hoses.” Trump has taken control of the largest reserve on the planet, but he has found himself with a facility that has no hoses, whose electrical grid is collapsing and whose fuel requires intensive processing so as not to destroy the engines. Although the flow of exports can be redirected quickly from China to the US in a matter of months—benefiting refineries in Texas and Louisiana—the actual reconstruction of the sector is a long-term project. The real battle has not been the capture of Maduro, but the management … Read more

the high possibilities that the US plan for Venezuela will sink the price of oil

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The global geopolitical board has been blown up at the start of 2026. If the oil market was already limping after 2025 characterized by excess supplythe capture of Nicolás Maduro by US forces This weekend has acted as the definitive catalyst. What in another time would have caused a “shock” of rising prices due to fear of shortages, today is having the opposite effect: investors are beginning to discount a flood of crude oil in the medium term that could push the barrel of WTI directly towards the basement of $50. The Trump factor. The military operation to arrest Maduro and transfer him to New York has not come wrapped in the usual diplomatic alibis. On the contrary, President Donald Trump has been unusually explicit: the goal is oil. Under what some analysts already call the “Donroe Doctrine“, the White House has demanded the return of assets that it considers “stolen” from the United States since the era of Hugo Chávez. Trump does not seem interested in a change in the traditional democratic regime; has minimized María Machado’s opposition and has conditioned stability on US oil companies (Chevron, Exxon, ConocoPhillips) taking the reins of PDVSA to “fix” a ruined infrastructure, as Bloomberg has had access. A market in free fall. Despite the tension, prices are trading lower today. WTI stands at $57.12 and Brent barely defends $60.55 —at the time of writing this report. The market was already coming from 2025 where the barrels took a 20% annual cut. According to the Financial Timessentiment is the most bearish in a decade. The newspaper highlights that the operators (traders) maintain record levels of short positions (bets on the fall), ignoring any geopolitical risk premium. Amrita Sen, founder of Energy Aspectsexplains to the same medium that psychology has changed because it is assumed that there will be “much more oil in the medium term”, which cancels out any rebound due to military tension. The $50 plan. The real fear of traditional exporters is not only Venezuela, but the consolidation of a bloc under US influence. According to a JP Morgan reportIf Washington manages to reactivate Venezuelan production and add it to that of Guyana (controlled by Exxon) and its own domestic production (world leader with 13.3 million barrels per day), the United States would de facto control 30% of all world reserves. This “superblock” would neutralize OPEC’s ability to set prices. Oil would cease to be a purely market good and become a strategic tool administered from Washington to keep prices in low ranges (50-60 dollars) and thus promote its internal economic expansion. The OPEC+ axis: a fight for fiscal survival. This scenario of low prices creates a lethal clamp that squeezes Moscow and Riyadh equally. For Russia, a barrel at 50 dollars It is a weapon of economic war more effective than sanctions; The country already suffers from a chronic lack of investment and the siege of its income to sustain the conflict in Ukraine. This weakness spreads to the rest of OPEC+. According to the recent press releasethe eight countries have decided to pause production increases until April 2026 due to “seasonality.” However, its capacity for influence is exhausted: each cut by the cartel is compensated by the increase in supply from foreign countries such as Brazil or Canada. In addition, doubts are already bleeding into the Gulf financial markets. According to ReutersSaudi Arabia’s stock markets have closed in the red on the prospect of a chronic surplus. Riyadh has approved a borrowing plan of 217 billion riyals by 2026 to support its “Vision 2030”. Without oil above 70-80 dollars, their megaprojects become financially unsustainable. Is a flood of Venezuelan crude oil realistic? In the short term, technical skepticism persists. According to Bloombergreviving the Venezuelan industry so that it returns to its 3 million barrels per day of yesteryear would require an investment of 10 billion dollars annually for a decade. The infrastructure is so deteriorated that loading a supertanker today takes five days, compared to the single day it took seven years ago. Additionally, there is the factor of internal resistance. Delcy Rodríguez, current interim president, has already warned that Venezuela “will not be anyone’s colony.” However, the market looks further: the simple possibility that Venezuelan heavy crude (vital for US Gulf Coast refineries) return to the legal circuit is enough to keep prices under structural pressure. It is worth remembering that the market moves by expectations. The International Energy Agency (IEA) already foresees a surplus record of 4 million barrels per day for this year due to the China slowdown and technological efficiency. The new era of transactional oil. Trump’s success when eliminating an opponent and “lay your hand” on the largest reserves in the world In a matter of hours he sent a message maximum global pressure. If this trend is consolidated, 2026 will be remembered as the year in which oil stopped being an instrument of balance to become the hammer with which the United States redraws the map of power. Barring an unexpected disruption, the path to $50 seems less like a hypothesis and more like a sentence for traditional petrostates. Image | freepik and Gage Skidmore Xataka | This graph shows that Venezuela has more oil than anyone else. Its production is another story

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