the only tools this expat needs to hunt down Iran’s ghost tankers

From the 47th floor of his Singapore apartment building, Remy Osman, a British expat who works in the beverage industry, has a front-row seat to one of the world’s biggest geopolitical clashes. Armed with binoculars, a wide-angle camera and live tracking applications, Osman watches as a 333-meter-long supertanker moves at a snail’s pace along one of the busiest shipping routes on the planet. The scene contains a brutal irony: as detailed Financial Timesthat ship’s cargo has almost doubled in value since it set sail just two weeks ago, coinciding with Brent crude oil reached 120 dollars per barrel in the wake of the war between the United States, Israel and Iran. From his balcony, Osman hunts the ships of the so-called “shadow fleet”, sanctioned oil tankers that operate outside the law, but in broad daylight. The ship that caught Osman’s attention is the Hugean 18-year-old oil tanker. According to the sanctions list records of the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC)it is an Iranian-flagged ship operated by the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) and heavily monitored since 2018. Although the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz began at the end of February with attacks by the United States and Israel, the Huge It has been one of the few large crude oil cargo ships (VLCC) that managed to get out of that mousetrap. From his privileged vantage point, Osman has identified an unmistakable pattern: the Iranian oil tankers sail towards the east sunken in the water, revealing that they are loaded to the brim, and a week later they return in the opposite direction floating much higher, with their load considerably lighter. The most surprising thing is the nerve with which they operate in the midst of the current crisis. Ships that were previously hidden now display their names and flags as if to say: “We have as much right to navigate these waters as anyone else,” Osman himself said. to the Finance Times. This impunity has reached the point that almost two-thirds of the NITC fleet have started transmitting data accurate in their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) after seven years of manipulation and concealment. Tehran’s lifeline The impact of this ghost fleet parading in front of Osman’s window is titanic. As the world suffers “the largest supply disruption in history” due to the closure of Hormuz, Iran continues to export its crude oilsurpassing the barrier of 2 million barrels per day. The millions of barrels that Osman sees disappearing on the horizon have an overwhelmingly single destination: China. The Asian giant absorbs around 90% of Iran’s oil exports. The data tracked corroborate this massive escapeplacing the “Iran-China” route in first place in dark operations, moving more than 1.6 million barrels per day. While Iran profits, the rest of the planet trembles. With some 20 million barrels a day taken off the formal board due to the physical blockade of Hormuz, the scenario of a barrel at $200 is already a real possibility. The global threat is proportional to the size of this illicit network: according to Fortunethe dark fleet is estimated at about 1,100 vessels, representing between 17% and 18% of all liquid cargo tankers in the world. The machinery to outwit the Western powers is a marvel of evasive engineering that occurs a few kilometers from Osman’s house. As explained Financial Timestankers do not sail directly from Iran to Chinese ports, but instead perform ship-to-ship (Ship-to-Ship) transfers on the high seas. The main scenario for this transfer is the Eastern Outer Port Limits, in Malaysian waters, an area with little supervision. On a single day last January, satellite images confirmed the presence of about 60 of these ships anchored there, operating with total impunity. To achieve this level of invisibility, they exploit legal loopholes in the sea. As detailed Fortune, The international maritime system is based on voluntary compliance: ships simply turn off their radio transponders, spoof their locations, or change their identities by scratching their registration numbers. In addition, they rely on “flags of convenience.” According to the statistics of Tanker TrackersIn addition to Iran and Russia, dark ships often fly flags of countries such as Panama, Cameroon or Sierra Leone. The final link in this chain is found in Asia. The report of Kharon reveals that the final buyers They are not the large state oil companies, but the so-called refineries teapot. These small, independent refiners absorb 90% of Iranian exports and give Beijing “plausible deniability” in the international community, even though these private companies are deeply connected to the Chinese state through joint ventures and front-line networks in Hong Kong. Attempts to stop this illicit transfer have been few and often frustrating. Although Malaysian authorities recently seized crude oil worth almost $130 million from two suspicious tankers, the outcome was laughable: after paying bail of just $75,000, the ships were released. The next day, Osman looked out on his balcony again and there was one of them, the Celebratebrowsing again fully loaded. The paradox in the shadows Still, the war has brought some complications. According to Lloyd’s Listthe escalation of war forced at least six ghost tankers that were sailing empty towards the Persian Gulf to turn around (the so-called U-turns) and abort its operations. But the network is resilient: as experts point out, the shadow fleet is designed precisely to operate under disruption. The great irony is that, while those sanctioned find cracks to navigate, the legal actors are desperate. The blockade has forced Saudi Arabia to use its oil pipeline through the desert against the clock to divert millions of barrels to Yanbuin the Red Sea, where an emergency armada of supertankers is queuing up in an agonizing attempt to evacuate legal crude oil and prevent economic collapse. How to conclude Fortune, The dark fleet did not arise because the maritime system is broken, but because it was always voluntary. Today, sanctions have pushed countries like Iran to build a highly effective parallel system. While the formal world looks for alternative … Read more

the increase in abandoned oil tankers

Abandoning an oil tanker or other commercial vessel has gone from being something rare to becoming a dangerous trend: in 2025 alone there are 410 vessels registered, an abysmal difference compared to the 20 cases in 2016, according to data from the International Transport Workers Federation (ITF), a global trade union organization that tracks these incidents. What is causing this rebound? The first affected: the crew. An abandoned oil tanker does not only mean neglecting the vessel itself, but also more than 6,000 sailors abandoned to their fate, according to ITF global figures. The most affected are Indian sailors, with more than a thousand people affected representing the majority of the total. One case is that of Iván (not his real name), the chief deck officer of an oil tanker that has been abandoned for weeks outside the territorial waters of China, which recently declared for the BBC how this event has affected their health and the environment: “We had a shortage of meat, cereals, fish, basic things to survive.” And that’s not to mention the uncertainty of seeing the Chinese coast and not knowing if you’ll be able to set foot on it. The context: the ghost fleets. Over the last few months we have heard about “ghost ships” or “zombie ships”, that is, ships that legally barely exist, with owners hiding behind front companies. The objective is to operate outside the official financial and regulatory framework to evade sanctions through “prohibited” routes such as Iran, Russia or Venezuela. The Ukrainian War and the context of sanctions have created a B market for old ships that transport oil. The ideal candidates to become ghost banks are aging vessels, generally oil tankers that are around two decades old, a critical age at which the vessel is already headed for scrapping, which makes it easier for them to move into that clandestine scenario. Whoever buys it is not going to invest in long-term maintenance, he wants to pay it off quickly by transporting sanctioned crude oil. These types of boats lack complete insurance such as P&I Clubsso that in the event of any problem, the shipowner disappears before assuming repair or repatriation costs. The legal trap of rental flags. Here the “flags of convenience“, something like the tax haven of the seas. This is what happens when a shipowner registers his ship in a country other than his own to benefit from more lax regulations. There is a legal disconnection between the real ownership of the ship and the state that gives it the flag. And what does it have to do with abandoned oil tankers? According to the ITF82% of abandonments occur on ships that operate under flags of convenience. Among the states with flags of convenience are Panama, Liberia and the Marshall Islands, which represent 46.5% of all merchant ships. But there is one country that deserves a special mention: Gambia. In 2023 it went from having no ships to having 35 sailing under its flag, a record time to create that infrastructure organically. In addition to softer legislation, many of these countries outsource inspections to private organizations and lack sufficient technical personnel to verify it afterwards, such as notes the International Maritime Organization in several reports. Prisons and floating time bombs. Ivan’s is just one case, but what an example: The ship is carrying almost 750,000 barrels of Russian oil that has a nominal value of about 50 million dollars (42 million euros). He left the Russian Far East for China at the beginning of November 2025 and there he is, at the gates of his destination and unable to enter. It is so that the alarms go off due to the environmental risk posed by a possible spill from an abandoned ship without responsibility. Furthermore, the safety of the vessel is compromised, as human error accounts for more than 80% of maritime accidents and these sailors are not exactly at their best. Fortunately, the ITF took charge of the situation in December, providing payroll arrears up to this point, providing groceries and other essentials, and planning repatriation. It is not an isolated problem. The drastic increase in abandoned oil tankers represents not only a violation of international sanctions and regulations, but also a human drama and potential environmental disaster for which there would be no legal responsibility to cover it. Although it is true that there are interventions and approaches and that there are states putting pressure on those countries that are banners of flags of convenience like Gambia and achieving something in the attemptthe reality is that this is a global phenomenon that requires stricter international regulation, serve as an example India’s blacklistwhich included 86 foreign ships in a database for abandonment of sailors and violation of their rights. In Xataka | Fewer and fewer oil tankers are being scrapped, and there is only one reasonable explanation: Russia’s ghost fleet In Xataka | The ships of the oil “ghost fleet” turn off their GPS to avoid being detected. Malaysia is going to hunt them with drones Cover | Jack Dong

Chinese oil tankers are arriving in Venezuela and coming up empty. Exactly what the US was looking for

The map of world power has been redrawn in just one week. What began as a military operation to capture Nicolás Maduro has transformed into an energy earthquake that has left an image for history: the gigantic Chinese supertankers, which for years were the financial lifeline of Caracas, turning around in the middle of the Atlantic. A U-turn in international waters. The ships Xingye and Thousand Sunny —two supertankers (VLCC) with the Chinese flag—have definitively abandoned their course towards Venezuela. As confirmed by the South China Morning Post (SCMP)After weeks of inactivity and uncertainty anchored in the ocean, these colossi return to Asia empty. These ships are not just any oil tankers. According to Reutersare part of a group of three ships dedicated exclusively to the Venezuela-China route to transport the crude oil destined to pay the gigantic Venezuelan external debt. Its withdrawal is the clearest sign that the South American country, now under US control, will not export crude oil directly to its main buyer in the short term. The embargo that Trump does not lift. Although the US president stated last week that China “would not be deprived” of Venezuelan oil, the reality in the ports is different. According to SCMPChina has not received shipments from the state-owned PDVSA since last month, while Washington insists that the oil embargo remains in force. Where does the oil go then? While the Chinese ships return empty, the giants of the trading Global companies such as Vitol and Trafigura are already preparing the first shipments of a $2 billion deal to move 50 million barrels accumulated in inventory. the destiny, as reported by Reutersit will be the United States and other markets like India. China could receive part of this oil, but only if it negotiates with these intermediaries, thus losing its direct and preferential access to the benefit of the discounts it obtained. through its independent refineries or “teapots”. The bill that no one wants to pay. After the euphoria of the military takeover, a financial dilemma of billion-dollar proportions looms. Venezuelan oil has been takenbut it is mortgaged. China financed railways and power plants for decades through more than 600 bilateral agreements. Regarding the debt, the figures estimate around 10,000 million dollars, although other calculations of think tanks they increase the historical debt to more than 60,000 million, much of it structured under the “oil for loans” model. However, the great fear in Beijing is that the new government led by Trump will invoke the doctrine of “hateful debt”. As pointed out expert Cui Shoujunthis legal recourse would allow the new executive to repudiate the loans alleging that the Chinese money did not benefit the people, but rather served to keep the Maduro regime in power. Outrage in Beijing. The response from the Asian giant is firm and has not been long in coming. The official China Daily media has qualified Maduro’s capture and the January 3 military intervention as a “flagrant hegemonic invasion” and an act of “neocolonialism.” In editorials signed by researchers from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the US is accused of using “hard force” to trample international norms and send a message of fear to the rest of the Latin American countries that seek an independent path. A treasure in ruins. The capture of Maduro has put the largest crude oil deposit in the world in the hands of Washington, but the trophy comes with a fine print that could break global financial balances. The infrastructure that the US now inherits It is literally in ruins: Loading an oil tanker today takes five days compared to the only day that was enough seven years ago, and the crude oil arrives “dirty” (with excess salt and water). Reconstruction will require $10 billion annually for a decade. The battle in Venezuela is no longer fought with soldiers, but in the offices where it will be decided who pays the Chinese debt and who repairs PDVSA’s rusty pipes. Meanwhile, the ships Xingye and Thousand Sunny They move away from the Caribbean, symbolizing the end of an era. Image | Unsplash Xataka | The “B side” of the United States landing in Venezuela: a subsoil full of hypothetical rare earths

What reveals the silent withdrawal of its tankers

The United States launched a series of bombings on nuclear facilities in Iran on the weekend. Tehran’s reaction did not take long: Parliament raised close the Ormuz Straita road through almost a fifth of the oil and gas that is exported by sea in the world. Although the final decision is in the hands of the supreme leader, Ali Jamenei, the threat has already shaken the maritime routes of the Persian Gulf. This Monday, at least one Chinese oil tanker began to turn around, As reported The specialized OilBandit account. Other boats would be delaying their routes or diverting. Although the blockade is not yet official, the domino effect has already begun. For China, the main energy partner of Iran and the main buyer of its crude, the risk of a escalation is not only economic, but also diplomatic. The forcefulness of China. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has urged the international community to “maintain stability on the critical routes of the Persian Gulf” and requested efforts to descale the conflict, According to The Wall Street Journal. Spokesman Guo Jiakun has assured that Beijing maintains communication with Iran and other actors involved. In addition, China has described the waters of the Gulf as “important channels of international trade”, stressing that their security is a common interest, According to Europa Press. Meanwhile, Washington has explicitly asked Beijing to act as an intermediary. “They depend largely on the Ormuz Strait for its oil,” said Secretary of State Frame In the same press agency. A vital route. China is the main buyer of Iranian crude, so an eventual closure would put that strategic source in check. In addition, due to US sanctions, many of Iranian exports arrive in China through Third countries like Malaysiawhat complicated the follow -up. Even so, estimates cited by The Wall Street JournalChina would absorb up to 90% of the oil exported by Iran, which would represent about 10% of its total imports. A true energy bottleneck. The impact goes further. The Ormuz Strait carries between 17.8 and 20.8 million barrels of crude oil per day, 20% of the world liquefied natural gas (LNG) and a third of liquefied oil gas. Of that volume, the Energy Information Agency (EIA) has estimated That 84% of crude and 83% of LNG end up in Asian markets, with China as the main destination. Also, neighboring countries such as Qatar, Eau, Baréin, Kuwait and even Saudi Arabia depend on this step to export hydrocarbons. Any closure would have immediate repercussions. An uncomfortable position. China has intensified its calls to the dialode, but the situation places it in an uncomfortable but strategic position: that of mediator. Beijing, which has cultivated an “unwavering friendship” With Tehran and signed in 2021 an economic cooperation agreement for 400,000 million dollars, which guarantees preferential access to oil and gas at competitive prices, such as has detailed EFE. However, the United States expects China to take another step. “If someone can convince Iran, it is China,” said Marco Rubio in his statements. The question is whether Beijing is willing to assume that role, or if you prefer that others manage the pressure. And now what? The Strait is still open, but the markets have already reacted. The Brent crude exceeded $ 80 per barrel, and according to Lloyd’s List, cited by Reutersinsurance premiums to navigate the area are increasing, even without a formal closure. The tension already translates into additional costs and urgent logistic decisions. The Iranian National Security Council must still rule on the recommendation of Parliament. For its part, China has been cautious. Meanwhile, observes cautiously. As you remember South China Morning Postalready experienced the impact of interruptions on the Red Sea due to the attacks of the Yemen Hutis. A blockade in Ormuz could replicate – or even exceed – that level of disruption. But … can it be reinforced? It should be remembered that China has strategic reserves of oil and gas that would allow you to temporarily cushion a supply cut. And if other Asian countries remain temporarily without supply, they could end up buying gas or oil through infrastructures and commercial channels controlled by China. Besides, Not to mention its energy diversificationthat could give him margin. But for now, the stage is uncertain. Chinese ships begin to turn. The routes adjust. And in a strip of just nine kilometers wide, the energy balance of the planet staggers again. Image | European Space Agency (Flickr) and Pxhere Xataka | The question is no longer whether it will attack, but if they will fulfill their threat: 9 kilometers of water keep the planet in suspense

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