How Venezuelan crude oil became a risk
On December 14, 1922, the Los Barrosos-2 well in Venezuela exploded into a 60-meter geyser of crude oil that took a week to stop. As CNN remembersthat ecological disaster set the country on a path of dazzling wealth and political turmoil that has led, a century later, in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro by US forces. While in Washington they celebrate the “Donroe Doctrine”in the control centers of the Cartagena and Bilbao refineries there is a different tension. For Spain, Venezuela is not just foreign policy news; It is an economic black hole of 1,160 million euros. A deficit out of control. The commercial relationship between Spain and Venezuela has gone from being a balanced exchange to a financial abyss. According to data collected by El EconomistaIn 2024, Spain registered a trade deficit of 1,160 million euros with the Caribbean country. It is triple that in 2022 and the highest figure in the last 18 years. The cause is an alarming asymmetry. While our sales barely reach 230 million euros, our purchases have multiplied by 22 since 2021. Spain has become Venezuela’s fourth best customer in the world, behind the US, India and China. However, it is not a diversified purchase but 94.59% of what we import is oil and derivatives. Repsol: the jewel exposed on the board. If there is a proper name in this conflict, it is Repsol. According to Expansionthe Spanish oil company is the company with the most money at stake in the area. Venezuela is not just another asset; is its second largest source of reserves tested in the world (256 million barrels), only behind the United States. This represents almost 15% of the company’s entire underground treasure. But the risk is not only what is underground, but what is owed. Repsol’s equity exposure due to commercial debts of the state-owned PDVSA amounted to 330 million euros in June 2025. In addition, the Spanish oil company extracts 33% of the gas consumed by Venezuela. As the same source points out, without Repsol gas, the Venezuelan economy would come to a standstill, but without Venezuela’s legal security, the Spanish company’s balance sheet could suffer a “hole” of more than 13 billion euros in reserve valuation. The paradox of “heavy food.” Many wonder why Spanish companies insist on a country with obsolete infrastructure. The answer is technical. Venezuela’s oil is “extra-heavy”, dense as tar. Ironically, the oil that the US extracts through fracking is “too good” (light). To produce diesel and asphalt efficiently, Gulf Coast and Spanish refineries need to blend their light crude with Venezuela’s dense “stuff.” However, this is a “gas station without hoses.” The crude oil arrives “dirty” (with excess salt, water and metals) because PDVSA has dismantled pipelines to sell them as scrap. This turns refining into an expensive and risky process that only companies with decades of roots, such as Repsol – since 1993 – dare to manage. The wall of 100,000 million. Trump’s optimism, which already mobilizes private funds of 2 billion dollars led by former Chevron executives, clashes with technical reality. In fact, analysts consulted by The Wall Street Journal They warn that there will not be an immediate miracle. Rebuilding the sector requires an investment of $10 billion a year for a decade. The infrastructure is so deteriorated that PDVSA acknowledges that its pipelines have not been modernized in half a century. The total repair bill amounts to $100 billion. The Trump factor and the “Donroe Doctrine.” In an analysis by market expert Robert Armstrong highlights a paradigm shift: Trump has shown that his geopolitical ideology is above market stability. By capturing Maduro, he has put his legacy at stake for the objective of controlling the energy flow from Alaska to Patagonia. This movement a priori benefits Repsol, which had been negotiating for months to avoid the export blockade. However, the risk is that the US will prioritize the landing of its own colossi (Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips) displacing the European partners that, such as Repsol or the Italian Eni, stayed when the Americans fled during Chávez’s expropriations. A prize with small print. Spain has before it a historic opportunity to recover its investments and lead the reconstruction, given its historical roots. But the 1.16 billion “hole” is only the symptom of a deeper illness: dependence on an asset that requires massive investment to be profitable in a world that is already beginning to say goodbye to fossil fuels. Venezuela continues to be the largest gas station in the world, but today it is a dilapidated facility whose repair bill threatens to stain the balance sheets of the large Spanish company if the transition is not “surgical.” Image | Pexels and Repsol Xataka | Venezuela has shown that the US can find anyone no matter how hidden they are. You only have to invoke one name: RQ-170
