East

As we look to the Middle East, the Arctic has become the hiding place for Russia’s biggest challenge to NATO: Borei and Yasen

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One of the greatest fears of Western navies was not a direct attack, but something much more disturbing: not knowing where the opponent was. That feeling became especially evident when, in the middle of the Cold War, a Soviet submarine managed follow a naval group American for days without being detected, demonstrating that in certain scenarios the true power is not in striking first, but in remaining invisible long enough. It is not seen, but it does not stop. They had an extensive report in Bloomberg that, hundreds of meters under a mountain in northern Norway, NATO relentlessly monitors a dashboard that does not appear in the daily headlines, but has never stopped being active. While global attention focuses and rightly so most visible conflictsin the depths of the North Atlantic there is a constant competition to detect, follow and keep track of the adversary’s most sensitive assets. It is, if you will, a silent, technical and permanent surveillance, one where the margin of error is minimal and where the absence of news does not mean, by any means, absence of activity. The Arctic as a strategic epicenter. As we said, although the political and media focus has irremediably shifted to the Middle Eastthe real pulse between Russia and NATO is moving further and further towards the arcticthousands of meters under the sea in an environment that combines isolation, depth and extreme conditions that make any monitoring difficult. This region, which for years was seen as peripheral, has regained its centrality for the opening of new routes, resources and, above all, for its military value as a transit and concealment space. In this scenario, ice and geography, more than obstacles, are natural allies for those who know how to take advantage of them. AND Moscow has the advantage. Welcome ceremony for the Borei K550 class nuclear submarine “Alexander Nevsky” at the permanent base in Vilyuchinsk Borei and Yasen: the Russian challenge. The heart of this strategy is the new generation submarines deployed by Vladimir Putin, especially the classes Borei and Yasendesigned to operate for long periods without being detected and capable of carrying strategic weapons. While they don’t always match their Western counterparts in stealth, they remembered in Bloomberg They compensate with tactics adapted to the Arctic environment, such as operating under the ice sheet or protected by other units, which greatly complicates their location. Perhaps for this reason, for NATO the greatest risk is not their presence, but rather the moment in which they are no longer under control. K-560 Severodvinsk A constant chase. It we have counted before. For decades, the key point to detect these submarines was the well-known GIUK runnerbetween Greenland, Iceland and the United Kingdom, but technological and operational advances have pushed this hunting species towards higher latitudes. Now, the objective is to intercept them before they abandon the relatively shallow waters of the Barents Sea and enter areas where they can disappear more easily. This evolution has forced to strengthen cooperation between allies now deploy surveillance systems increasingly sophisticated. Europe in the shadows. It happens that, in the face of uncertainty Regarding the long-term commitment of the United States, European countries are increasing their involvement in this surveillance, with Norway as a centerpiece and partners such as the United Kingdom, Germany or Canada, strengthening capacities and coordination. The result of this has been translated in new acquisitionsjoint exercises and advanced deployments, all movements that reflect a transition in which Europe tries to assume more responsibility for its own defense, especially in an environment as critical as the Arctic. A new Cold War under the ice. Yes, because the result brings us closer to a scenario that increasingly reminds us of the (il)logic of the Cold War, but this time with the difference that now there are much more advanced tools and a geopolitical context. completely different. The russian northern fleetmodernized and prioritized within its military structure, represents one of the Kremlin’s main deterrence capabilities, especially as its conventional forces show weaknesses on other fronts. And in that unstable balance, the Arctic seems to consolidate itself as a lucky “perfect hiding place”a place where Russia’s greatest challenge to NATO is not announced, it is simply happening under the cold sheet of ice. Image | NDUP, Mil.ru In Xataka | A nuclear giant designed to make way in the Arctic: this is the most modern icebreaker in the Russian fleet In Xataka | Russia and China already had an advantage over the US in the Arctic. After Greenland, it has multiplied

Millionaires are fleeing the Middle East. And their unexpected destination is a small Swiss canton called Zug.

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In 2011, during the Arab Spring, several European private banks detected an unusual phenomenon: Within days, high-net-worth clients began transferring large sums from the Middle East into accounts in Switzerland without prior notice. It wasn’t the first time something like this happened, but it was one of the fastest. That left a clear lesson in the financial sector: when stability falters, money does not wait to understand what happens, it simply moves. War moves money. we have been counting. The war in the Middle East is not only altering military and energy balances, it is also causing a silent movement but massive capital. What were previously fiscal decisions or lifestyle They have become urgent security decisions, where the priority is no longer optimizing profits, but protecting assets. In this context, an idea begins to prevail: billionaires do not wait for the situation to get worse, they go aheadand that movement is redrawing the global map of wealth in real time. Dubai is no longer an unquestionable refuge. For years, Dubai was the natural destination for international fortunes seeking stability, tax benefits and a secure environment in a complex region. However, the conflict with Iran has introduced a variable that previously seemed controlled: the direct risk. That perception has been enough for activate discrete outputs but constant numbers of businessmen, executives and large assets who are now looking for more predictable alternatives outside the gulf. This is not a collapse, but a change in mentality: when security is no longer absolute, attractiveness quickly erodes. Aerial view of Zug And, suddenly, Zug. In this displacement, the place that is attracting attention is not a great global capital, but a small swiss canton of just 135,000 inhabitants: Zug. Traditionally known for its role in commodities trading and, more recently, in crypto ecosystemhas become the first destination that many of these capitals look to. Reasons? counted the financial times that both wealth managers and bankers agree that demand has grown significantly since the beginning of the conflict, to the point that for many clients the request is direct and automatic: move there. The call effect. This growing flow is having immediate consequences in an already limited market, especially when it comes to housing. Demand has rapidly outstripped supply, generating intense competition for any property available and lines even for modest rentals. Added to this are administrative barriers that make entry difficult, especially for those who do not belong to the European Union, forcing residence to be linked to employment, investment or specific tax agreements. Zug attractsbut it does not absorb without friction. Switzerland reinforces its role in the geopolitics of money. What is happening in Zug is not an isolated phenomenon, but rather part of a broader dynamic in which Switzerland consolidates again as a refuge in times of uncertainty. Its political stability, its legal framework and its financial tradition make it a almost automatic destiny when overall risk increases. In fact, other cantons like Lugano have begun to capture part of this growing demand, expanding the phenomenon and confirming that the movement has only just begun. A map of wealth that changes with each conflict. In short, the result is a progressive movement of money from risk areas to safe enclaves, where each crisis acts as a catalyst. The war in the Middle East is accelerating this process and leaving one conclusion abundantly clear: global fortunes are no longer driven only by opportunity, but for threats. And in that new balance, places so small and discreet like Zug They can become, almost without noise, the great beneficiaries of an increasingly unstable world. Image | Schulerst , IDF Spokesperson’s Unit, LohriPR In Xataka | The most buoyant market right now is selling streaming and satellite images of US movements to Iran. In Xataka | Commercial aviation is based on very old aircraft. The Iran war is going to make it even worse

While everyone was looking at the Middle East, North Korea has had time to do what Iran has not been able to: go nuclear.

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It happened a few years ago, when in the midst of increasing tensions with North Korea, the Japanese government came to send alerts to millions of mobile phones through the J-Alert system when it detected the overflight of a missile, causing unusual scenes in which trains stopped and citizens took refuge in stations without knowing exactly what was happening. That reaction, almost automatic and difficult to imagine in peacetime, left a clear image of the extent to which certain global balances can be strained without warning. The regime that did not fall. I told a few days ago in an extensive special report the wall street journal the story of the surprising source of North Korea’s enduring power, a nation that has survived the demise of the Soviet Union and the transformation of China because it ceased to be just a communist state and became something more resilient: a closed ideological structurehereditary and almost religious. There it is impossible not to start with the Kim dynasty that managed to consolidate a system in which power is not only exercised, but also believed, internalized and transmitted as a faith. That model, built from Kim Il Sung and perfected by his successors, has made it possible to maintain extraordinary internal cohesion even in conditions of extreme isolation. While other regimes eroded as they opened up to the world or collapsed under external pressure, Pyongyang consolidated a base of control much deeperdifficult to dismantle from the outside. From ideology to state religion. I remembered the Journal that the core of that system is not only political, but also symbolic and emotional, with elements that clearly recall an organized religion. The Juche ideology It progressively replaced classical Marxism, incorporating rituals, symbols and an almost messianic narrative around the leader. The omnipresence of Kim Il Sung, his conversion in “eternal president” and dynastic continuity have generated a structure of loyalty that goes beyond political obedience. This model, influenced indirectly through Christianity that once dominated Pyongyang, allowed the construction of a system where loyalty to the leader is perceived as an absolute truth, something that largely explains its stability and capacity for resistance. The silent military leap. On that internal basis, North Korea has developed a pretty clear strategy: to arm oneself militarily until one becomes practically untouchablealthough no one knows exactly how much of it is true. Today it is recognized that it has intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reach US territory and has reinforced its arsenal with increasingly sophisticated systems. Not only that. The recent tests, just a few days ago from their new destroyer, with high-precision cruise and anti-ship missiles, they clearly show that it is no longer just a matter of accumulating weapons, but of integrating them into a modern military architecture, with rapid response capacity and systems resistant to interference. In fact, accelerated construction of new warships It aims at a transition from isolated platforms towards a structured naval force, which expands its projection capacity and complicates any containment scenario. Nuclear expansion in full noise. I told it this week Guardian through internal analyzes held by the UN nuclear watchdog. While much of the international attention was focused on the conflicts in the Middle EastNorth Korea has been taking advantage of this context to advance its nuclear program without restraint. As? Activity at key facilities such as Yongbyon has intensifiedwith new reactors, reprocessing plants and possible undeclared facilities to enrich uranium. The agency’s estimates point to dozens of warheads already operational and a growing capacity to produce enough material to between ten and twenty weapons additional each year. In other words, this rhythm, sustained over time, indicates that the objective is not only basic deterrence, but rather reaching a volume that guarantees the survival of the regime in the face of any attempt at forced change. The power that Iran has not consolidated. The key difference here is that North Korea has achieved what other countries in similar situations have achieved (call it Iran) have not been able to: convert their nuclear program into a fully integrated tool in their survival strategy. While other powers under international pressure have seen limited or braked its development, Pyongyang has moved closer to a point of no returnone where its capacity is broad enough to deter any intervention. In this context, it is possible that the real change is no longer just quantitative, but strategic: because when it reaches a surplus of nuclear capacity, the risk will cease to be solely regional and will have global implications, opening the door, at the very least, to new proliferation dynamics. Image | DPRK In Xataka | The US has activated plan B before Iran knocks down its last radar: disarm South Korea against the North’s new nuclear “toy” In Xataka | If the question is what has North Korea achieved in the last four years, the answer is simple: an unimaginable arsenal

the day ships stop arriving from the Middle East

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There is a date marked in red on logistics calendars across the continent: tomorrow, April 10. According to the projections of the analysis firm Argus Mediaaround this day the last shipments of aviation fuel (jet fuel) that managed to cross the Strait of Hormuz before its closure will dock in European ports. From that date onwards, entry volumes will plummet. The impact is no longer a theoretical threat. According to TVP Worldthe shortage is already palpable in Italy: the airports of Bologna, Milan Linate, Treviso and Venice have issued notices warning of possible restrictions on refueling due to the limited availability of fuel from their supplier, Air BP Italia. It is the first major warning of a domino effect that threatens to paralyze the European skies. The perfect storm in the Gulf. Since the start of the Third Gulf War on February 28 more than 20% has been canceled of the world’s seaborne jet fuel supply, and no less than 42% of seaborne imports from the European Union and the United Kingdom. The recent news of a “two-week truce” announced by US President Donald Trump has been received as a mirage in the industry. According to Politicalthe ceasefire will not solve the shortage in the short term. Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), warned that rebuild damaged refining capacity in the Middle East will take months. Among the infrastructures hit is the Al-Zour refinery in Kuwait, responsible for providing approximately 10% of Europe’s jet fuel imports, as pointed out BBC. Furthermore, maritime logistics is unforgiving. In the most idealized scenario where Hormuz is completely reopened today, ships would take 25 days to reach Europe sailing through a Red Sea where the Houthis remain a threat, or up to six weeks if they are forced to go around the Cape of Good Hope. Prices are skyrocketing. The price of aviation fuel in Europe reached last week an all-time high of $1,838 per ton, compared to 831 dollars before the start of the war. This increase translates into an immediate logistical problem on the landing strips. Anita Mendiratta, special advisor to the Secretary-General of UN Tourism, explains to Euronews a crucial technical detail: airports cannot store aviation fuel in large quantities. The entire system is designed to rely on continuous deliveries through refineries and pipelines. Any slightest interruption breaks the chain. The consequences are already visible on the exit panels. Just two weeks ago, we reported in Xataka that more than 25,000 flights canceled over the Middle East, while European airlines such as Scandinavian SAS have canceled at least 1,000 flights in April alone. For their part, giants like Delta Air Lines plan to absorb $2 billion in extra costs during the second quarter alone due to fuel, according to Reuters. How does it affect the passenger? Analysts of Barclays, in statements collected by Politicalthey end the era of “super normal” prices and cheap tickets. Airlines will also have to make drastic decisions about their fleets: Willie Walsh, in an interview with Bloomberganticipates that companies will be forced to evaluate the accelerated retirement of high-consumption aircraft, such as the gigantic A380. United States to the rescue (at the price of gold). In this survival scenario, Europe has found a lifeline on the other side of the Atlantic, although at a very high price. According to Financial TimesAmerican fuel already accounts for half of British imports (compared to the usual 7%). However, Europe is waging a fierce bidding war with Asia over shipments that, as it warns, Argus Media in the British environment, they will barely cover half of the gap left by the Middle East. Internally, the resistance goes in other directions. While countries with their own refining such as Poland are more protected, the calculations of Argus Media collected by Euronews They estimate that, without new shipments, commercial reserves will be exhausted in three months in the United Kingdom, in four in Portugal and in seven in Spain, Italy or Germany. Faced with this fragmented map, the EU is in tow: its spokesperson, Anna-Kaisa Itkonen, has acknowledged to the same medium that Brussels still lacks a “complete image” of national reserves to be able to organize a solidarity plan. The lessons of a dependent industry. Beyond the April emergency, the crisis has uncovered deep structural flaws in global aviation. According to Aviation WeekMarie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s chief economist, was astonished at the world’s complacency in living “under the domination of this monopolistic industry that is oil.” Thomsen denounced the very serious lack of investment in Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF), pointing out that capital is overwhelmingly directed to sectors such as artificial intelligence. For his part, Willie Walsh launched a direct criticism of governments: while States maintain immense strategic reserves of crude oil to cushion global crises, “it does not seem that we have any strategic reserves of jet fuel,” collects Aviation Week. The underlying fear is not just a difficult summer, but a permanent paradigm shift. According to a European executive in the energy sector to Politicalthe “worst case scenario” is that the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, but under new rules: with Iran applying permanent restrictions or charging tolls that alter global energy dynamics forever. A summer on the wire The high summer season is just around the corner and the market is walking on the wire. A firm analyst Vortexa warns in the BBC that, if these interruptions persist, maintaining the current level of flights will be logistically unsustainable without drastic route cuts and massive fare increases. Starting tomorrow, when the last ships that managed to escape the blockade unload their precious fuel in the continent’s ports, European aviation will begin to fly with the reserve light on. The era of absolute vulnerability of the European sky has just taken off. Image | Unsplash Xataka | The canary in the mine of the new oil crisis are the airlines: they are already canceling flights due to lack of fuel

sending personalized Ferraris to millionaires in the Middle East

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When the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iranthe Strait of Hormuz was closed to commercial traffic and the skies of the Persian Gulf They became a high-risk area. Freighters transporting luxury cars to Dubai, Riyadh or Doha encountered a Strait of Hormuz blocked and no alternative route plan. Any customer in that situation has little room for maneuver other than resigning themselves to waiting for their shipment like someone waiting for an Amazon courier, but a type of client who does not resign easily: he who has enough money to open your own delivery route. While hundreds of Lamborghinis, Bentleys and Ferraris were immobilized in intermediate ports due to the maritime blockade, their future owners found the most million-dollar solution possible: paying for “first class” flights so that their supercars They will arrive by plane. Cars blocked in the middle of the conflict. When the Strait of Hormuz was closed to commercial traffic, large cargo ships were unable to reach their destinations in Persian Gulf ports. One of the most striking cases was the one documented Reuters of a shipment with more than 500 cars that were blocked at sea. 50 of those cars They were luxury models of brands such as Rolls-Royce, Lamborghini and Ferrari and had to be provisionally unloaded at the port of Hambantota (Sri Lanka) pending resolution of their fate. The same problem affected Porsche and Audi, whose managers in the Volkswagen group they warned that the war would directly hit their sales in the region. OK to what was published by BloombergFerrari suspended shipments to the Persian Gulf for weeks. A wall between brands and millionaires. Faced with the blockade, each manufacturer adopted a different strategy, although they could not prevent some of the luxury cars that were already on the route from being trapped in nearby ports. Bentley chose to exhaust the inventory that dealers in the region already had to meet pre-conflict orders, avoiding shipments of new units. Ferrari, on the other hand, opted for a combination of longer and more complex alternative routes: more than 4,000 luxury vehicles bound for Dubai had to be diverted to Lamu Island port as an alternative entry point. Meanwhile, some millionaires impatient to drive the cars for which they have been waiting for no less than two years, did not want to wait a single minute longer and paid the extra cost of shipping with air transport to receive their cars as soon as possible. A decision that turned out to be more expensive than expected. The price of millionaire impatience. Air transport was already an import route that existed before the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but it tripled the cost of shipping. With the war blocking the only access route, that difference shot up to five times more. The average cost of transporting a kilogram of air cargo from Europe to the Middle East has increased by two-thirds since the start of the conflict, reaching $2.96 per kilogram of cargo. as he collected he Financial Times. Some routes recorded increases of up to 100% in rates, with an additional fuel surcharge of between 0.3 and 0.4 euros per kilo transported. Ian Arroyo, director of strategy at Freightos, a logistics information service, pointed out that there were only two options for assuming this price increase: “It all depends on whether manufacturers are reducing their own profit margin due to their relationship with the customer, or if the customer has offered to pay for the transportation on their own.” What is clear is that the final bill for the car was going to rise considerably. Money was not going to be a problem in this case. Ferrari does not lose a single order. In statements to Gulf NewsGiorgio Turri, Ferrari’s general director for the Middle East, assured that the brand had managed to overcome logistics problems without canceling any orders in the area. “We are not experiencing cancellations. (A Ferrari) is not a need, it is a dream. You don’t make decisions based on the mood of the day. Dreams are never a short-term decision.” The data proves him right. Between 30 and 40% of the Italian brand’s new supercar deliveries in the region go to customers who have never owned a Ferrari before. The Middle East is not the largest market in the world in unit volume, but it is one of the most profitable for the “Il Cavallino” brand. Customization and accessories account for a fifth of Ferrari’s revenue, and the region’s wealthy customers don’t just buy the car: they turn it into a unique piece doubling the car bill with customizations . To understand the dimension of the business that was at stake, it is enough to know a fact that Turri pointed out, “our clients in the Middle East are between five and seven years old. younger than the world average.” That for Ferrari is not a simple anecdote, it is decades of guaranteed sales if customers are satisfied, whether there is war or not. In Xataka | In Dubai they don’t know what to do with so many abandoned luxury supercars: the less shiny side of getting rich Image | freepik

The world needs to get oil out of the Middle East by any means possible. Their only hope is 30 giant ships queuing in Yanbu

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The landscape off the coast of Yanbu on the Red Sea has completely changed in a matter of days. The area is now taken over by VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers), colossal supertankers capable of swallowing two million barrels of crude oil. They are not there just passing through; Its massive concentration responds to a single objective: to carry out the largest and most urgent evacuation of oil in recent times. A fleet to the rescue of the market. To understand the magnitude of this rescue operation, just look at the figures that provides Financial Times: What is happening is a real “flotilla of supertankers” sailing against the clock. About 30 of these giants head to Yanbu, when the usual thing is that only two arrive a month. The reason is that traffic in the Persian Gulf has come to a “stalemate” following the Iranian attacks. The maritime tracking data it handles Bloomberg give an idea of ​​the urgency: In just 48 hours, at least 25 of these giants have headed to the Saudi port. We are talking about a fleet with room to load some 50 million barrels that, otherwise, would have no outlet. It is an essential escape valve right now. The blockade has already caused world production to fall by 6% and the plug is so big that neighbors like Iraq and Kuwait they have had to start closing wells because, simply, they have run out of room in their tanks to store the oil. The “sea bridge” to avoid Iran. How do these ships load oil if they do not enter the Gulf? The answer is in the desert, but the result is seen in the port. Saudi Arabia is using your pipeline East-West like a turnstile. The crude oil travels overland 1,200 kilometers to Yanbu, where the “army” of ships awaits it to distribute it to the world, especially China and India. According to Wall Street Journal, This infrastructure has become “one of the most critical pieces of the world economy” overnight. The CEO of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, confirmed in this medium that they are reaching their maximum capacity: 7 million barrels per day flowing westward. Of them, 5 million are destined directly to be loaded on these supertankers for global markets. The risk does not disappear, it just changes coordinates. But sailing to Yanbu is not a safe ride. As he warns Financial Times, The ships must now “challenge the notorious hotspot of Houthi attacks.” To leave for Asia, these supertankers have to cross the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Although the Yemeni group had signaled a pause in its attacks, experts from EOS Risk They assure that the tankers continue to assume an “enormous risk”, since the area is within reach of Iranian missiles. Even the port of Fujairah in the Emirates, which is also trying to act as an escape route, is already has suffered damage from drone attacks last week. The message is clear: the alternative is less dangerous than Hormuz, but it is not immune to war. The limits of the plan. The big question for markets is whether this armada of ships and desert pipelines can prevent economic collapse. The closure of Hormuz has taken 20 million barrels per day off the board and physical reality imposes its limits on the alternative route. On the one hand, there is a critical funnel in the port itself. According to data from the Argus Media agencyalthough the Saudi pipeline manages to transport up to 7 million barrels, the Yanbu terminals only have real capacity to load between 4 and 4.5 million a day on ships. Inevitably, supertankers will have to queue. On the other hand, the distillate crisis looms. As experts cited by Middle East Eyethe East-West pipeline transports crude oil, not refined products. No matter how many ships fill up in Yanbu, markets like Europe are left without their vital supply of diesel and aviation fuel, which is usually processed in the unreachable refineries of the Middle East. According to Sparta Commodities in statements for WSJwith this route only half of the problem has been “solved.” There are another 10 million barrels that are still trapped with no possible way out. Therefore, it is no longer “crazy” for a barrel to reach $200. The demand for oil is “inelastic”; the economy cannot stop consuming it from one day to the next, which generates brutal upward pressure. The geopolitics of “the worse the better” While ships maneuver in the Red Sea, in Washington the focus is purely strategic. Donald Trump has made it clear that stopping Iran is the priority, even above the price of gasoline. “We make a lot of money when prices rise,” the president even published on his social networks, emphasizing that the US, as a large producer, can afford a resistance that other countries do not have. For its part, the historic opening of the IEA’s strategic reserves (400 million barrels) attempts to “buy time,” but as analyst Javier Blas says, nothing replaces to the actual opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Image | Photo by Khristina Sergeychik on Unsplash Xataka | China has just found a hole in the US’s quietest weapon: an algorithm has hacked its B-2s in Iran

Building data centers in the Middle East seemed like a great deal. Until Iran arrived

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A few days ago we said that Iran had attacked two data centers in the United Arab Emirates and one in Bahrain. It is the first deliberate attack on a data center and proof that it has become critical infrastructure at the level of power plants. The question is who thought it was a good idea to build data centers in one of the most unstable areas on the planet. A plan that comes from afar. In a trip to Saudi Arabia last yearTrump was accompanied by an entourage of technological leaders among whom were Elon Musk, Jensen Huang, Sam Altman or Sundar Pichai among others. At this meeting, massive investments were announced in the region with the construction of a massive data center complex. However, although it has been strengthened by this administration, the previous one was the one that started the path. In September 2024, Biden met with the leader of the Emirates to seek a strategic alliance that would allow them to develop their AI ecosystem. The reason. What has led technology companies to build in the Middle East is evident: saving. They count in Financial Times that the Gulf countries offered very interesting incentives, such as subsidies and cheaper energy. Furthermore, in this way all the problems they are having at home with the electrical gridpermits and resistance from many communities. The business seemed good. The map of AI in the Middle East. Emirates and Saudi Arabia are the countries with the most data centers, with 57 and 61 facilities respectively, according to Data Center Map. Of all of them, many are from American companies. Amazon alone has nine in the area, including those in the Emirates, Bahrain and also Saudi Arabia. Microsoft has data centers in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and is building one in Saudi Arabia. Oracle, OpenAI and other partners are building a mega data center in Abu Dhabi which they expect to reach 5GW. The damage. Although the Middle East has gained presence on the map of big tech data centers, the concentration of infrastructure is still ridiculous compared to that of the United States itself, which has more than 4,000 installations. All in all, build a data center It’s not exactly cheap. Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, said a few months ago that Each gigawatt costs about $50 billion.. The irony. The same leaders who posed for a photo with Trump on that trip now see how their infrastructure is threatened and suffering the consequences of the conflict caused by the president himself. The idea of ​​investing in so much digital infrastructure in an unstable area was not such a good idea. The war against Iran It looks like it’s going to get longer. and nothing prevents Tehran from continuing to attack energy and technological facilities in the region. They were looking to reduce costs and it may end up being expensive, although seeing the projected capex for this yearthey can afford it. Image | Data Center Map (edited) In Xataka | The US is beginning to realize something worrying: AI data centers are skyrocketing its electricity bill

While Europe fears for its pocket after gas cuts in the Middle East, France has a plan: its nuclear power

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Europe holds its breath in the face of the threat of a new energy crisis. The escalation of war in the Middle East has caused a real earthquake in the markets. The de facto blockade in the vital Strait of Hormuz puts in check the arrival of liquefied natural gas (LNG) ships from Qatar, forcing cargo ships to deviate towards Asia. With European gas reserves below 30% after an unusually cold winter, panic relives the nightmare of 2022 it is palpable. However, in the midst of this continental chaos, France observes the situation with an apparent and calculated calm. The French country believes it has an ace up its sleeve to avoid blackouts and industrial ruin: its imposing, and recently resurrected, nuclear fleet. A historical export record. While northern Europe trembles over gas, the French electricity grid operator, RTE, has just put figures on the table that support the Elysée’s optimism. According to the Bilan electric 2025Last year, France broke its historical record by exporting 92.3 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity. To put it in perspective, RTE’s Director General of Economics, Thomas Veyrenc, explained to the Revue Générale Nucléaire that this volume exceeds the annual electricity consumption of an entire country like Belgium. This milestone has returned France to its traditional role as Europe’s “electric battery”, a status that it had resoundingly lost in 2022. The secret of this success lies in the recovery of its nuclear park, which produced 373 TWh in 2025 (3.1% more than the previous year) thanks to better availability of its reactors. As pointed out by Financial Timesthis French nuclear fleet is precisely the energy lever that Europe was missing after the invasion of Ukraine, and could be the key to not having to turn on polluting coal plants again in the face of the current gas cut in the Middle East. The paradox: they export because they do not consume. Economically, the move is round. According to Le Mondethese exports have earned France 5.4 billion euros. By having so much low-cost electricity production (nuclear and hydroelectric), the country manages to maintain very competitive wholesale prices, situated at an average of €61/MWh in 2025, well below the suffocating prices suffered by neighbors such as Germany or Italy. But this “miracle” has some worrying fine print. As the specialized media warns Le Monde de l’EnergieFrance exports so much electricity mainly because its domestic consumption is stagnant. The country’s electricity demand remained at 451 TWh in 2025, 6% below pre-crisis levels. The reality is that France is far behind in the electrification of its own economy. Paradoxically, 56% of the final energy consumed by the country continues to depend on fossil fuels, especially in sectors such as transportation and heating. The energy clamp to Spain. The French master plan to establish itself as the energy savior of Europe has a clear loser: the Iberian Peninsula. As we explained in Xatakawhile Germany pays more than 100 euros for electricity and France pays 13 euros, in Spain and Portugal renewable overproduction sinks prices until they reach zero or negative values. Why doesn’t that cheap and clean Iberian energy flow to a thirsty Europe? Because France acts as a protective wall. The country maintains Spain as an “energy island” with only 2.8% interconnection, deliberately blocking vital projects in Aragon and Navarra in its network plan for 2025-2035. ANDThe eternal France-Spain conflict. The motivation is not technical, but pure geostrategy and economic survival. Paris needs urgently make profitable a pharaonic investment of 300,000 million euros in its atomic sector. Allowing the massive entry of competitive Spanish solar and wind energy would sink the prices and profitability of its nuclear plants. In fact, President Emmanuel Macron has come to attack the Spanish energy model in the international press, calling it unstable, arguing that a network does not support a 100% renewable model, and describing the urgency of interconnections as a “false debate.” However, the data dismantles the Elysée story. On the one hand, there is the “Danish mirror”: Denmark operates with more than 80% wind generation and does not suffer blackouts because it is ultra-interconnected with its neighbors to balance the load. On the other hand, the flagrant French amnesia regarding 2022 stands out, the year in which the French reactors failed massively due to corrosion problems and it was Spain that had to export electricity to rescue France from the blackouts. Because of this current plug, Spain is forced to throw it away (what is known as technical discharges or curtailment) around 7% of its clean energy because it literally “does not fit” into the grid. All this is part of a strategy of total domination by the Elysée: Macron not only seeks civil energy hegemony, but, how to collect CNBChas put a doctrine of “advance deterrence” on the table, offering the protection of its nuclear weapons to Europe in the face of the withdrawal of the United States. The Achilles heel: the uranium crisis. However, Macron’s nuclear fortress could have feet of clay. The chain RFI (Radio France International) warns that this “nuclear renaissance” faces great uncertainty over uranium supply. Historically, France obtained 20% of its uranium from Niger. But following the recent military coup, the ruling junta revoked the permits of the French company Orano, nationalized the mines and blocked exports, leaving Paris with a gaping supply hole. Now, France is desperately trying to look for new sources in countries like Kazakhstan (the world’s largest producer) or Mongolia, but there it comes face to face with the overwhelming geopolitical, business and infrastructure influence of Russia and China. A castle with a drawbridge. France has managed to build an energy strength that, in the short term, allows it to weather the Middle East storm better than its European neighbors, selling its surpluses at a gold price. But it does so at the cost of isolating the Iberian Peninsula and betting everything on a mineral, uranium, whose control is increasingly slipping out of its hands on the global chessboard. Time will … Read more

We don’t know if the US is going to attack Iran. We do know that it is carrying out the largest military deployment in the Middle East since Iraq

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In major international crises there is a almost imperceptible moment in which the tension stops being rhetorical and begins to be measured in real movements. History shows that when the pieces begin to be placed with that precision, the outcome It rarely depends on words alone. Therefore, when they pass 20 tanker aircraft across Europe in a single day and the maps tell us that the largest aircraft carrier in the United States is four days to reach its destination, the outcome can only be an ockham razor. A display that is already historic. Of course, we don’t know for sure whether the United States is going to attack Iran. What we do know is that it is running the largest air deployment in the Middle East since the invasion of Iraq in 2003, a concentration of power which cannot be explained as simple diplomatic pressure. There are currently dozens of stealth fighters, command and control aircraft, anti-missile systems and two aircraft carrier groups taking up positions while the White House insists that diplomacy still on the table. The question is not whether Washington has the capacity to strike, but when and to what extent it would decide to do so. And if the satellite maps they don’t lieon Sunday morning everything would be ready. Stealth fighters in motion. The radars have indicated For several days now, the F-22, F-35 and F-16 have been crossing the Atlantic in waves, reinforcing bases in Jordan and Saudi Arabia that are becoming launching pads for a sustained campaign. Them F-15E are addedelectronic warfare aircraft and air communications nodes that allow complex operations to be coordinated. It is not the pattern a specific attack like the one perpetrated in Iran with the Operation Midnight Hammerbut rather the architecture of a “heavy” and prolonged air war, one capable to last weeksbut more, with targets ranging from nuclear facilities to missile depots and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps centers. AWACS to the limit. There are six Boeing E-3 Sentry, That is, almost 40% of an aging fleet with low availability, warning and control systems that have been sent to Europe and the Middle East. We talk about the floating brain that manage air combatcoordinates interceptions and detects drones and cruise missiles at low altitude. Its massive deployment indicates that planners are setting up an environment “high intensity battle”but at the same time it reveals a structural vulnerability of Washington: the United States depends on a small and old fleet to direct one of the most complex campaigns on the planet. U.S. Ford Patriots, THAAD and defending against retaliation. There is no doubt, in such a movementreinforcement is not just offensive. Patriot Systems and THAAD They have come forward to protect the surrounding 30,000-40,000 soldiers Americans scattered in the region and allies like Israel. This gives us an idea of ​​what to expect. Washington assumes that any attack would trigger a response with ballistic missiles, kamikaze drones and possibly attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz. The deployment seeks to ensure that, if retaliation comes, it can absorb the blow without paralyzing the operation. Two aircraft carriers and a “navy” visible in space. He USS Abraham Lincoln already operates in the area with Aegis destroyers and nuclear submarines, while the USS Gerald R. Ford keep it up from the Atlantic after crossing near Gibraltar. As we said, if it maintains its current speed, it will be off the coast of Israel on sunday morning and will be able to reinforce air defense in the event of an immediate Iranian retaliation. Two combat groups with F/A-18, F-35C and electronic warfare aircraft provide mobile power, missile defense and sustained strike capability. That is to say, it is not a symbolic presence, it is an unequivocal sign of preparation for real combat. Trajectory of the American aircraft carrier US Ford Tehran, Moscow and Beijing for internships. While Washington concentrates forces, Iran is currently carrying out naval exercises with Russia and China in the Strait of Hormuz. The presence of Russian and Chinese ships does not alter the military balance against the United States Navy, but it adds a layer if you want. politics and risk which requires planning with greater caution. In this regard, Iran has also closed parts of the strait for maneuvers with anti-ship missiles and drones, stressing that any war would not be a limited exchange, but an escalation with global impact on the oil and sea routes. An outrage for ambiguous objectives. The accumulation of forces It allows, a priori, multiple scenarios: from a limited attack against nuclear facilities to a campaign aimed at degrading missile capacity or even weakening the regime. Be that as it may, technological and aerial superiority does not resolve the political mystery of what would happen next. Without ground forces or a broad coalition, a protracted war would depend almost exclusively on air and naval power. In that regard, The New York Times said that the White House has received plans designed to maximize the damage, but has not yet made a final decision. Pressure as a strategic weapon. With such a scenario there are not many options. Either the deployment is a prelude to an attack, or we are dealing with a tool unprecedented pressure aimed at forcing concessions at the negotiating table. Some analysts believe that the show of force they have in front of them right now could convince to Tehran that Washington is going all out. Others warn that the same preparation that increases military credibility also reduce the margin to retreat without any political cost. One thing is clear: at this point, the movement of parts It is already historical and hyperbolic, and the only thing left is to know if it will remain a threat or will become an open war of unpredictable dimensions. Image | TREVOR MCBRIDE, US Army Aerial, RawPixel, BORN In Xataka | Tension in Iran is so high that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. And that will have consequences when … Read more

Whenever there has been war in the Middle East the price of oil has shot. Now something different is happening

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A truce between Iran and Israel announced by President Donald Trump had an immediate impact on energy markets. According to Financial TimesBrent’s crude oil fell up to 5.6 % on the morning of Tuesday, June 24 – having $ 67.50 per barrel – after the news of the high to fire. However, market volatility has not ceased during the day. Prices have partially rebound after Israel accused Iran of raping the truce and threatened with a “blunt response.” At the end of the day, According to Oilprice dataBrent’s price remains around 67 dollars. This sway reflects how the oil market is still extremely sensitive to geopolitical holders. Hadn’t they shot each other? Less than two months ago, A perfect sinking storm The price of oil below $ 60, for tariffs, refinery closure and overproduction. With the outbreak of the conflict between Iran and Israel, oil prices They had shot. As He explained Bloomberg, the military offensive revived one of the greatest fears of the oil market: an interruption of the supply from Iran, the third largest producer in the region. However, that climb lasted little, exceeding the breeze price of $ 80 per barrel only for a few hours. Operators did not detect concrete damage to critical infrastructures or interruptions in crude oil flow, which quickly cooled expectations. A persistent threat. Despite the initial containment, the Ormuz Strait remains the great friction point. For this narrow one – just 9 kilometers at its closest point – circulates around 20 % of the world crude. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close it if the scale scale, which would activate one of the worst scenarios for global markets. The tension has generated concrete reactions. Several Chinese oil ships They have received instructions to avoid the area. This gesture suggests that, although there is still no open conflict, navigation risks are real and affect logistic decisions of key actors such as China. There is a superlative difference. Despite tensions, prices have not climbed as in past crises. This is due to several structural factors such as high production and sufficient reserves. Thanks to the rise of Shale Oil in the US and the increase in production in Canada, Guyana and Brazil, the global market has a wide mattress. Even if Iranian exports were stopped – about 2 million barrels per day – OPEC+ could supply the void without great shocks, According to Bloomberg. On the other hand, in the same medium, they have stressed that even China, the largest oil consumer in the last decades, shows signs of having reached a roof in its demand, added to its own national production. A fragile balance. The immediate future of the oil market will depend on three major factors. The first, and more critical, is the Ormuz Strait: if Iran decides to close – or threats credible with doing it – this strategic route, prices could be shot. Second, there is the response from the United States and Israel. If the truce is officially broken or military reprisals intensify, a new cycle of uncertainty and volatility in markets would open. Finally, China’s position, the main Iranian crude buyer. Any decision of Beijing – is a tactical withdrawal, greater caution in transport or diplomatic pressure – could alter the current balance. For now, operators seem to assume that the situation will remain contained, without a real interruption of the supply. But with the atmosphere so loaded, a single spark could return to oil to the center of the hurricane. Image | Pexels Xataka | Geography has given Iran its best weapon against the US: a red button to shoot the world oil price

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