Whenever there has been war in the Middle East the price of oil has shot. Now something different is happening

A truce between Iran and Israel announced by President Donald Trump had an immediate impact on energy markets. According to Financial TimesBrent’s crude oil fell up to 5.6 % on the morning of Tuesday, June 24 – having $ 67.50 per barrel – after the news of the high to fire.

However, market volatility has not ceased during the day. Prices have partially rebound after Israel accused Iran of raping the truce and threatened with a “blunt response.” At the end of the day, According to Oilprice dataBrent’s price remains around 67 dollars. This sway reflects how the oil market is still extremely sensitive to geopolitical holders.

Hadn’t they shot each other? Less than two months ago, A perfect sinking storm The price of oil below $ 60, for tariffs, refinery closure and overproduction. With the outbreak of the conflict between Iran and Israel, oil prices They had shot. As He explained Bloomberg, the military offensive revived one of the greatest fears of the oil market: an interruption of the supply from Iran, the third largest producer in the region.

However, that climb lasted little, exceeding the breeze price of $ 80 per barrel only for a few hours. Operators did not detect concrete damage to critical infrastructures or interruptions in crude oil flow, which quickly cooled expectations.

A persistent threat. Despite the initial containment, the Ormuz Strait remains the great friction point. For this narrow one – just 9 kilometers at its closest point – circulates around 20 % of the world crude. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close it if the scale scale, which would activate one of the worst scenarios for global markets.

The tension has generated concrete reactions. Several Chinese oil ships They have received instructions to avoid the area. This gesture suggests that, although there is still no open conflict, navigation risks are real and affect logistic decisions of key actors such as China.

There is a superlative difference. Despite tensions, prices have not climbed as in past crises. This is due to several structural factors such as high production and sufficient reserves. Thanks to the rise of Shale Oil in the US and the increase in production in Canada, Guyana and Brazil, the global market has a wide mattress. Even if Iranian exports were stopped – about 2 million barrels per day – OPEC+ could supply the void without great shocks, According to Bloomberg.

On the other hand, in the same medium, they have stressed that even China, the largest oil consumer in the last decades, shows signs of having reached a roof in its demand, added to its own national production.

A fragile balance. The immediate future of the oil market will depend on three major factors. The first, and more critical, is the Ormuz Strait: if Iran decides to close – or threats credible with doing it – this strategic route, prices could be shot. Second, there is the response from the United States and Israel. If the truce is officially broken or military reprisals intensify, a new cycle of uncertainty and volatility in markets would open. Finally, China’s position, the main Iranian crude buyer. Any decision of Beijing – is a tactical withdrawal, greater caution in transport or diplomatic pressure – could alter the current balance.

For now, operators seem to assume that the situation will remain contained, without a real interruption of the supply. But with the atmosphere so loaded, a single spark could return to oil to the center of the hurricane.

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