gas

A “floating gas station” in the middle of the ocean is making a fool of the US

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In the satellite images of certain points in Southeast Asia there are days in which dozens of oil tankers appear completely stopped in the open sea, forming a kind of improvised parking lot in the middle of one of the busiest shipping routes of the world. Some stay there for hours, others for days, with no apparent direction, as if waiting for something that never comes… or that happens when no one is watching. An invisible map in the middle of the ocean. I told the story this week CNN through data by MarineTraffic reviewed by the media. For years, the Iranian oil trade has followed a logic that barely left a trace in official records, with ships disappearing and reappearing in tracking systems and shipments whose origin changes depending on the document consulted. This dynamic, it seems, has allowed us to sustain a constant flow towards China even under sanctions, relying on a network of intermediaries, opaque routes and an aging fleet that operates on the margins of the international system, similar to the “Russian model”. It happens that what seemed like a succession of dispersed maneuvers begins to draw a much more defined pattern: a floating infrastructure that works away from the spotlight. The “floating gas station”. They explained in the exclusive that, in waters near Malaysia, in the area known as Eastern Outer Port Limitsa key point has been consolidated where dozens or even hundreds of ships remain waiting, exchanging oil in ship-to-ship operations that completely transform crude oil traceability. This enclave acts as a authentic service station intermediate where Iranian oil changes hands, identity and destination before continuing its journey towards Asia, becoming a central gear which allows Tehran to maintain stable exports despite international pressure. Its location, close to critical maritime routes and outside effective control, makes it the ideal place for this type of operations. SAR satellite images show vessels within the outer boundary of the Eastern Harbor off the coast of Malaysia on April 18, 2026 How the shortcut to China works. The system follows a precise and repeated logic: one where large oil tankers load crude oil at Iranian facilities, cross the Indian Ocean and reach this area. where they transfer their cargo to other ships, which in turn transport it to Chinese refineries. In this process, oil change label and appears as originating from countries such as Malaysia or Indonesia, hiding its real origin in official data. This mechanism allows China to continue receiving large volumes of crude oil at reduced prices, while Iran ensures constant income that sustains its economy in a context of sanctions. MarineTraffic data shows the multiple trips the MT Tifani made between the Persian Gulf and the EOPL from April 2025 until its capture by US forces in April 2026 “Ghost” fleet that does not stop. Behind the system are hundreds of vessels that change flag, name and owner frequently, making them difficult to track and reducing their exposure to sanctions. Many operate without identification active for long periods, activating and deactivating its location systems as appropriate, which further complicates any control attempt. The magnitude of the activity is growingwith hundreds of annual transfers that, in practice, turn this maritime space into one of the most active (and least transparent) points of global energy trade. The fight with Washington reaches another board. In the background, a story that remembered the wall street journal the weekend. Recent oil tanker seizures like MT Tifani They reflect a change in strategy on the part of the United States, which has decided to extend its pressure beyond the Middle East and act directly on these distant routes. These interventions they seek to interrupt a system that has operated for years with relative impunity, although they also show the difficulty of stopping such a distributed and adaptable network. Each intercepted ship is a signal, although the total volume of traffic suggests that the mechanism remains fully operational. Floating reserves and economic war. Beyond the immediate exchangethis network also works as a strategic reserve on the high seas, one with millions of barrels stored on oil tankers waiting to be delivered when conditions permit. There is no doubt, this capability offers Iran a mattress facing blockages or interruptions, bringing oil closer to their final buyers and reducing its dependence on vulnerable routes like right now in the Strait of Hormuz. In short, the system represents much more than an evasion of sanctions, approaching an entire logistics architecture designed to keep open a critical avenue of income in the midst of conflict. Image | Department of Defense, MarineTraffic, Sentinel 1/European Space Agency In Xataka | Ukraine taught how to use drones. Iran has gone one step further: turning them into a crusher for US radars and bases In Xataka | If the war resumes again, the US runs a risk unprecedented in the history of war: that the only one with missiles will be Iran.

deeply dependent on natural gas

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China leads global lithium battery production. If we stick to electric cars in this Asian country manufactures 80% of the batteries who use these vehicles. CATL and BYD are the largest lithium battery manufacturers on the planet with a market share in February 2026 of 42.1% and 13.4% respectivelyaccording to the consultant SNE Research. Its leadership position is the result of several factors. On the one hand, China is the world’s largest producer of lithium and rare earthwhich are the main raw materials used in the manufacture of batteries. In addition, it controls the processing of these materials and is capable of producing batteries on a large scale and at a very competitive price. However, in this recipe there is one more ingredient that we cannot overlook: BYD and CATL lead the global battery industry thanks to their capacity for innovation and adaptation. Both companies demonstrated this by betting before their competitors on lithium iron phosphate batteries (known as LFP by its English name). However, they have a weak point: they are deeply dependent on fossil fuels. The natural gas paradox Chinese battery manufacturers, and especially CATL and BYD, face a crossroads: their plants depend on natural gas to carry out thermal processes, making them vulnerable to geopolitical instability, such as that triggered by the iran war. Several thermal processes are involved in the production of a battery that require maintaining a constant and high temperature. One of them is the coating of the electrodes with a liquid mixture of active materials. And another involves the evaporation of solvents inside gigantic ovens. Battery factories have been designed around gas boiler and pipeline systems This last phase consumes an enormous amount of thermal energy, and currently gas boilers are the most efficient and economical way to produce the steam and heat that are necessary for these drying tunnels to fulfill their function. CATL has increased the use of wind and solar energy drastically, but the problem it has encountered is that electricity has not yet achieved effectively replace natural gas in processes in which large-scale heat production is involved. And this gas delivers an amount of heat that is difficult to match using electrical resistance on an industrial scale. In addition, current factories have been designed around gas boiler and pipe systems, so changing the entire production infrastructure to an alternative that dispenses with natural gas and relies on electricity requires a huge investment that would force manufacturers to increase the price of batteries. In this scenario, their competitiveness would suffer. As I mentioned a few lines above, the deep dependence that CATL and BYD have on natural gas exposes them to the instability of the global energy market. In fact, the increase in the price of gas as a consequence of the war in Iran is having a direct impact on the production cost per kWh. CATL is already working in a solution to this problem. Currently it appears that the best alternative to gas boilers is drying by directed infrared radiation, although gas today continues to provide much more energy than all the renewable and hydroelectric plants combined in the Chinese manufacturing ecosystem. Image | BYD More information | Volt Insight In Xataka | Xi Jinping’s “made in China 2025” plan is becoming a reality: this is how he is conquering the key technologies of the future

They no longer have helium and they have liquefied natural gas left for 11 days

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Taiwan has run out of helium. And has a reserve of liquefied natural gas for 11 days at best. It is a very serious problem that is of great concern to Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturers. In fact, the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Association (TSIA) has asked the Government of the island that set up a strategic reserve of these two resources capable of guaranteeing their availability for a long period of time. The origin of this problem is the war between the US, Israel and Iran. These countries have agreed to a two-week ceasefire agreement, but Taiwan remains on the ropes. The blocking of Strait of Hormuz has disrupted the supply of helium and liquefied natural gas on which many Asian countries depend, and the Taiwanese integrated circuit industry is deeply dependent on these two resources. Taiwan cannot afford to have such a fragile supply chain More than 40% of Taiwanese power plants use liquefied natural gas. And chip factories need a stable supply of electricity to sustain their activity. Additionally, these facilities require the use of helium in several critical stages of the IC production process, and Taiwan currently does not have a helium reserve. The US and Japan have already created a strategic inventory of liquefied natural gas and helium, and TSIA has requested the Taiwanese government to do the same. There is a lot at stake. The production of cutting-edge chips gives Taiwan enormous relevance from a geostrategic point of view And the semiconductor industry is strategic for Taiwan for three fundamental reasons: it represents among 13% and 15% of the gross domestic product of the country; is the engine of its exports with a value close to 40% of the total; and finally, the production of cutting-edge chips gives the country enormous relevance from a geostrategic point of view. For this reason, it is crucial for this Asian country that TSMC, UMC and its other companies involved in the integrated circuit industry have the resources they need. TSIA has noted that Taiwan must diversify its energy sources: “We propose to the Government the need to continue diversifying our energy sources and the supply of critical materials to prepare for the uncertainty of the current situation (…) Our Association also supports the Government’s decision to reopen nuclear power plants to have a more stable energy supply as long as the processes meet legal requirements and safety is guaranteed.” Be that as it may, the underlying problem that Taiwan faces is that its economy, as we have seen, is deeply dependent on the semiconductor industry. And their supply chain is fragile. Very fragile. The Administration closed the last nuclear power plant in May 2025, and since then more than 95% of the island’s electricity depends on imported resources. The temporary ceasefire agreement reached by the US, Israel and Iran is likely to alleviate some of the pressure on Taiwan, but its integrated circuit industry is too important to allow it to be so sensitive to the international situation. Image | Generated by Xataka with Gemini More information | Nikkei Asia In Xataka | We already know what the chips that will arrive until 2039 will be like. The machine that will allow them to be manufactured is close

Europe fled from Russia’s gas to fall into the arms of the United States. The Third Gulf War proves that it was a trap

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Behind troop movements and sea blockades for the Third Gulf Warthere is a much quieter script twist that is shaking the foundations of the continental economy: false European security. A problem that comes from the other side of the pond. After the energy crisis due to the Ukrainian War (still valid), Europe thought it had solved its great energy vulnerability by changing the gas that arrived through Russian gas pipelines for liquefied natural gas (LNG) that crossed the Atlantic in ships from the United States. The idea of ​​the European Union was to bet its imports on Washington to diversify sources and avoid future geopolitical blackmail. However, the American lifeline has turned out to be punctured. With the global market in maximum tension due to the war in Iran, the US is not guaranteeing European supply and makes gas subject to trade wars and political whims. The real Achilles heel. Europe now depends on the United States for two-thirds of its LNG imports, according to the center for economic studies Bruegel. As global supply falls due to the conflict, Asian buyers — who traditionally sourced from the Gulf — are competing aggressively for flexible gas ships. The result is a bidding war to the highest bidder: according to Bruegelseveral shipments of American LNG have already been diverted from Europe to Asia in the midst of the conflict. At the diplomatic and commercial level, the situation with our “savior partner” is enormously unstable. In the midst of this crisis, Donald Trump has come to criticize European allies, urging them on social networks to “get their own oil,” according to Bloomberg. As if that were not enough, political friction over the conditions of the trade agreement between the EU and the US has caused senior US officials to threaten retaliation, casting serious doubts on Washington’s previous commitment to sell $750 billion in energy products (including its precious LNG) to the European bloc. The price of the “green illusion”. The impact of this imbalance is being brutal for European pockets. According to the Financial Times Based on data provided by the European Commission itself, the bill for EU fossil fuel imports has increased by 14 billion euros in just 30 days of conflict. Gas prices have experienced a rise of 70%, while oil prices have become more expensive by 60%. This puts in front of the mirror what in Euractiv have baptized as “the green illusion” of Europe: a glaring structural failure in the energy transition. Despite having invested nearly one trillion euros in renewable energy, the European Union’s energy dependence on imports remains at 60%, practically the same figure as in 2004. An ineffective design. The reason for this price contagion lies in the very design of the European electricity market. By operating with a marginalist system, the most expensive technology (usually gas) is the one that sets the price of electricity for everyone, as explained in Strategic Energy. In countries heavily dependent on gas to generate electricity, such as Italy, gas sets the price 89% of the time, exposing citizens directly to international volatility. However, there is hope if you do your homework. In Spain, the enormous growth of wind and solar energy has caused the gas only mark the price of electricity 15% of the hours, much better shielding the country against these external shocks. In fact, it’s not all bad news: solar electricity generation has saved the EU from spending 2 billion euros in fossil fuel imports only in the first 20 days of March. And now what? It doesn’t look like we’ll get a break anytime soon. The crisis will not be brief, as the European Commissioner for Energy, Dan Jørgensen, has strongly warned. who has made it clear thateven if peace were declared tomorrow, prices would not return to normal in the foreseeable future. The European Commission is already finalizing a “toolbox” with emergency measures that will suddenly return us to the scenarios of 2022. On the table in Brussels is the possibility of recovering taxes on extraordinary profits that fell from the sky (windfall tax) for energy companies. Drastic measures in sight. Brussels also foresees drastic measures to contain demand based in the well-known 10-point plan of the International Energy Agency. This would translate into recommendations to Member States to encourage teleworking, reduce speed limits on motorways and promote both public transport and car sharing. At the strategic level, to stop the bleeding in LNG prices and prevent the US from playing against Europe with Asia over shipments, the think tank Bruegel proposes a radical solution: that the EU act as a bloc and coordinate its gas purchases directly with large importers such as Japan and South Korea to avoid a bidding war. The invisible problem. To understand the complete picture, we must talk about the great bottleneck that almost no one talks about: concrete and copper. European renewable deployment is colliding with a lack of capacity in electricity networks. According to a report from the climate think tank Emberat least 120 GW of planned renewable energy projects in Europe are at risk simply because the grid cannot support them. The logjam is monumental, with almost 700 GW of renewable projects stuck in connection queues awaiting permits across European countries reporting this data. And this is not just a problem of the macro plants of large corporations; It directly affects the average citizen. According to calculations in the same report, 1.5 million European homes could face delays in being able to connect the solar panels on their roofs due to obsolete distribution networks that do not have the capacity to take on the energy. A chronic gap. The underlying problem is a chronic gap in the system itself. As pointed out EuractivEurope has changed how it generates its electricity, but it has not electrified its real economy. Cars continue to burn oil, heavy industry continues to use fossil gas and the general electrification of the economy has been stagnant for ten years. Europe has spent … Read more

The damage to the oil and gas industry will take years to repair

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The Third Gulf War is here, and while financial markets cling to the hope of a quick resolution, the physical reality tells a much darker story. The world is currently facing the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market. As detailed The New York Timesbased on the analyzes of energy expert Jason Bordoff, the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has taken about 20 million barrels per day off the board, which represents 20% of world consumption. To put this in perspective, the International Energy Agency (IEA) recalls that the historic Arab embargo of 1973 “barely” withdrew 4.5 million barrels per day. The logistical, political and infrastructure damage that Operation Epic Fury has unleashed in the Persian Gulf is so profound that, regardless of what is signed in the dispatches, it will take years to return to normality. The new global funnel. Even if the war ended today and the Strait were 100% reopened, untangling the monumental logjam would take months. As Rory Johnston, oil market researcher, explains, to the magazine New Statesman“we are talking about two to three months just to renormalize the global system.” Oil tankers are piled up on both sides of the strait, and a sudden restart would cause a collapse at unloading terminals, reminiscent of the worst bottlenecks of the Covid-19 pandemic. It won’t be suddenly. To this we must add a key factor: the ships will not sail again the day peace is signed. Maritime insurers will require months of proof that the Strait is safe before returning to cover oil tankers without imposing unaffordable premiums. But the situation is even more complex. As detailed in a recent analysis by my colleague Miguel Jorge in Xatakathe dynamics of the Strait have drastically mutated. Iran has turned this artery into a kind of maritime “VIP discotheque.” It is no longer a free international transit route, but rather a selective access system where Tehran decides who passes. While US allies and Israel are banned, countries like Spain – which refused to participate in the military coalition – have received “passes” for their ships. The root of the problem. If the recovery will be so slow it is, fundamentally, because the infrastructure is burning. Unlike previous conflicts, Iran’s strategy is based on an asymmetric war that seeks to destroy the energy pillars of its neighbors. The most devastating example is found in Qatar, where the Iranian drone attack on the Ras Laffan facilities—the largest Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export plant in the world— has caused damage which will take between three and five years to repair. Furthermore, we must add temporary closures in Saudi refineries like Ras Tanura that guarantee long-term disruption. The domino effect has already reached the earth. Given the impossibility of removing the crude oil by sea, the storage tanks are bursting. Iraq has been forced to close wells and cut production by 70% simply because there is nowhere to put the oil. This is what is known in the industry as “locked-in” oil, and reactivating all that stopped machinery requires weeks of complex technical work. The specter of chronic inflation. The impact of this paralysis goes far beyond the gasoline pump and will condition the economy for the next five years. As he warns The Economistthe sustained rise in energy prices threatens to entrench global inflation, quickly pushing it to an unbearable 5% or 6%. This means that the cost of living, interest rates and commodity prices will be marked by this crisis for years, slowing down any attempt at real recovery. Added to this is a silent time bomb: food. Not only crude oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz, but a third of the world’s fertilizers. If global agriculture runs out of this vital input, we face a global food crisis that will distort harvests and supermarket prices in the coming seasons. On the threshold of $200 per barrel. If the blockade persists, economic pain will be inevitable. Macquarie Group analysts warn in Bloomberg that if the conflict extends until June, the price of crude oil could reach a whopping 200 dollars. The objective of this extreme price is none other than to force the “demand destruction“: that it be so expensive that people and industries simply stop consuming. The most pessimistic voices warn of an economic catastrophe. Larry Fink, the CEO of the financial giant BlackRock, warned in an interview with the BBC that if the barrel settles at $150, the world will plunge into a “severe and deep recession.” And the consequences are already visible, as jet fuel in Asia has already exceeded $200. Meanwhile, magazines as Fortune report that Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a recession in the US to 30%. The Wall Street mirage and useless patches. It is fascinating and terrifying to observe the disconnection between physical reality and financial markets. Wall Street lives “spellbound” by algorithms and verbal intervention (jawboning) by Donald Trump. All it takes is a tweet from the American president announcing vague peace plans—quickly denied by Iran—for the stock markets to rise and the price of a barrel to drop momentarily. Investors blindly trust the phenomenon WAD (“Trump Always Chickens Out”), believing that the president will back down before sinking the economy. But tweets don’t fill the tanks. To try to mitigate the blow, the International Energy Agency has coordinated the historic release of 400 million barrels of its strategic reserves. It sounds like a lot, but as the experts consulted by Al Jazeerathat amount barely covers 20 days of the oil that has stopped flowing through Hormuz. It’s a band-aid for an arterial bleed. In fact, such is the desperation of the West that the US administration has gone so far as to temporarily lift sanctions on Russiaallowing it to sell its crude oil on the open market in order to try to relieve the pumps. The big silent winner. While the West is suffocating with inflation and supply problems, just a few … Read more

Taiwan produces 90% of the world’s advanced chips. Its natural gas reserves last exactly 12 days

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In global energy markets, alarm bells do not always ring loudly; Sometimes all you have to do is watch where the boats are sailing. While the West observes the already known Third Gulf War With a mixture of horror and remoteness, Asia is suffering the direct impact. The colossal Ras Laffan facility in Qatar—which processes about a fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG)— has suffered damage by 17% of its infrastructure after the Iranian attacks. 12 days. At the exact center of the geopolitical target is Taiwan. The island has a practical monopoly on the world’s most advanced chips, but its “silicon shield” hangs by an extremely fragile logistical thread: an energy supply chain whose legal security threshold requires a minimum of just 11 to 12 days of natural gas reserves. The fatal panorama in Asia. Asia is on the front line of this fuel crisis as it buys more than 80% of the crude oil that transits through the blocked Strait of Hormuz. The nations of the region have had to quickly dust off the survival manuals of the COVID-19 era. Philippines has become the first country in declaring a state of “national energy emergency”, warning of an imminent danger and turning to coal to reduce costs. In South Korea, the government has asked its citizens Take shorter showers, use public transportation, and avoid charging your phones at night. Sri Lanka declared on Wednesdays as a holiday to save fuel, and in Thailand, officials have received the order to take off their suits, use the stairs and telework. china from chill. However, the contrast with China it’s abysmal. While its neighbors panic, the Asian giant observes the chaos coldly. Five years ago, Xi Jinping ordered to secure the country’s “energy rice bowl.” Today, thanks to a massive accumulation of sanctioned crude oil (bought cheaply from Russia or Iran), the shielding of renewables and a vehicle park where electric cars are the majority, China has built an invisible Great Wall that isolates it from fossil volatility. A trade war against the clock. This hydrocarbon drought not only turns off the lights, but paralyzes the industry. According to Commonwealth Magazinethe petrochemical and plastics sector has been the first major victim. The giant Formosa Petrochemical has had to issue force majeure notices after running out of raw materials, and prices of key materials such as ABS (used in car parts) have soared by up to 50%. At a logistical level, a trade war has broken out ruthless battle between Europe and Asia to seize the few available LNG shipments. Spot prices in Asia have doubled, and ships originally sailing to Spain or France are diverting their course to the Pacific in the face of more lucrative offers. In this Darwinian scenario, South Asia is acting as the global “shock absorber”: price-sensitive countries, such as Pakistan or Bangladesh, cannot compete and are forced to destroy demand or paralyze industries, leaving gas available for the giants that can afford it. To mitigate the blow on their own streets, governments like Japan They plan to inject billions in subsidies, while Taiwan has committed to absorb 60% of the increase in crude oil prices. Taiwan’s “Achilles heel” and the check on chips. If there is a critical point in this crisis, It is the island of Taiwan. In 2025, Taiwan relied on imports to meet 95% of its energy needs, including more than 99% of its oil and natural gas demand. Before the war, it received more than 38% of its annual natural gas supply and approximately 70% of its crude oil from the Middle East. The structural problem is time. While nations like South Korea have the capacity to store gas for 52 days and Japan for three weeks, Taiwan is walking on the wire. As pointed out Bloombergis an almost non-existent room for maneuver for an island where electricity generation based on natural gas has expanded to almost 48%. An immediate buffer. To avoid collapse in the short term, the Taiwanese Ministry of Economy has acted quickly with a checkbook. Minister Kung Ming-hsin has confirmed that supply planning is already covered for March, April and May, and they have even secured half of their replacement agreements for the month of June. Away from the imminent blackout, the island’s reserves have managed to remain above the safety threshold of 12 days since the fighting broke out. However, this short-term patch does not turn off the alarms. The real danger lurks in the summer, when high temperatures historically trigger electricity demand. A prolonged blackout: global chaos. The semiconductor sector contributes around 20% of Taiwan’s GDP. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which produces about 90% of the chips most advanced in the world (vital for AI and military technology), alone consumes approximately 9% of all electricity on the island. But gas is not the only missing input; Added to this is the disruption in the supply of secretive but vital raw materials such as bromine and helium (a third of which is processed in Qatar). The experts They warn that if the interruption of helium exceeds 14 days, the chip production lines will go into technical stoppage. With summer just around the corner and electricity demand about to skyrocket, the island operates at its limit. The pressure is so immense that the historically reluctant Taiwanese government is already openly debating the reactivation of nuclear energy, recognizing that the explosive growth in electricity demand linked to the development of Artificial Intelligence is changing all the rules of the energy game. The geopolitical board: opportunism and contradictions. Beijing has not been slow to intervene. Taking advantage of the panic, the Chinese government has thrown a poisoned lifeline. According to Chen Binhua, spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, collected in South China Morning Postthe Asian giant offered the island a stable, abundant and cheap energy supply in exchange for accepting “peaceful reunification.” Taipei’s response was blunt: Vice Minister of Economy, Ho Chin-tsang, rejected the offer, calling it “cognitive … Read more

The problem is that there are already gas stations that have absorbed them

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The liter of diesel reached 1.96 euros on average last Saturday, its highest since the conflict broke out in Iran, and gasoline was dangerously close to two euros. However, that same weekend, it came into effect the government’s tax reduction. Prices have dropped, but now the question is how long it will last. Why has fuel increased? The conflict in the Persian Gulf has increased diesel prices by 44.8 euro cents per liter, and gasoline by 28.2 euro cents, according to a study published by the OCU. The trigger is the war in Iran, which has strained the crude oil markets through the Strait of Hormuzan artery through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil transits. In just three weeks since the start of the conflict, prices at the pumps ended up skyrocketing to levels not seen since the Ukraine crisis. What has the Government done? The Executive approved on Friday, March 21 a shock package which includes, among its most important measures, lowering the VAT on fuel from 21% to 10% and temporarily eliminating the special tax on hydrocarbons. The estimated savings were around 30 cents per liter, which represents around 20 euros of savings per tank, according to the estimates of the Government itself. The measure published in the BOE on Saturday it came into force immediately, although it will have to be validated in Congress this Thursday. The Government has set the validity of this temporary reduction until June 30, at which time it will review the impact of the measure depending on how the energy markets evolve. How much have prices really dropped? This Monday, March 23, the average price of 95 gasoline in Spain was located at 1,595 euros per liter and diesel at 1,786 euros. The drop is real and significant. And in fact, if you go to almost any gas station, you will see that the prices have nothing to do with those of a few days ago. However, it is worth putting it in perspective. And the average price of a liter of diesel on March 19 was 1,917 euros, and the VAT reduction reduces it by about 17.4 cents. That is still well below the average increase of 45 cents that we were able to verify between March 2 and 19. Likewise, the tax decrease does not fully compensate for what fuel prices have increased in recent weeks. ANDl rocket and feather effect. The fact that VAT drops on paper does not guarantee that the price at the pump will drop just as quickly or completely. Economists call this the rocket and feather effect: When the price of oil rises, fuels immediately reflect that increase, while the declines are much slower. Part of this slowness also has an explanation: the cut in the hydrocarbon tax has not yet been applied to all gas stations because many are depleting the stock they had bought with the previous tax. ANDthe first day of the descent. In about 42% of service stations the VAT reduction from 21% to 10% did not fully materialize the first day, and the situation was even worse in agricultural and transport cooperatives, which in most cases had not yet passed on the discount. Some have attributed this to the lack of time to adapt the computer systems (the announcement came on Friday, the publication in the BOE on Saturday and the reduction was to be effective on Sunday) since many stations had purchased fuel at higher prices just the day before. The director of the Spanish Confederation of Service Station Employers (CEEES), Nacho Rabadán, has indicated that in many cases there have been service station managers who the day before purchased fuel with a price increase greater than the impact of the VAT cut. And a quarter of gas stations took the opportunity to go up. The most striking thing comes from FACUA. And it is that according to the data According to the consumer organization, 1,837 gas stations that communicated new prices to the Ministry on Sunday took advantage of the VAT reduction to apply a new increase. Of them, 177 completely absorbed the tax reduction by maintaining their prices without adjustment, and another 40 even increased it compared to the previous price. In the specific case of diesel, FACUA calculates that, if the tax reduction had been fully transferred, the decrease would have reached 17.8 cents, placing the average price at 1.785 euros; However, the real price was somewhat higher. FACUA concludes that lowering taxes without setting price ceilings is “exactly the measure that speculators have been demanding.” 2022 is not that far away. We have the most recent precedent in the bonus of 20 cents per liter that the Government applied during the Ukraine crisis. This cost us around 4.25 billion euros, according to a study of the economists Juan Luis Jiménez, Jordi Perdiguero and José Manuel Cazorla-Artiles. The effectiveness of the bonus was, to say the least, questionable. And in addition to the study, other independent reports from Esade and Funcas They also concluded that a significant portion of that aid did not reach consumers. The CNMC began an investigation that concluded last February with a fine of 20.5 million euros to Repsol group companies for abusing their dominant position. This history is precisely the reason why the Government has opted this time for a direct tax reduction that acts on taxes instead of repeating the universal bonus. From the CEEES, Rabadán had already qualified the 2022 bonus as “well-intentioned, but poorly designed and worse executed.” What a difference the measurement makes this time. Unlike the 2022 bonus, the VAT reduction acts directly on the tax included in the final price, which theoretically makes it more difficult for gas stations to appropriate the benefit. However, given FACUA’s complaint after the events of the first day of the sale, we see that the fact that it is more difficult for the price to be absorbed does not mean that it is not impossible. Given the … Read more

We have been avoiding the definitive energy crisis for months. Iran’s missile at Qatar’s largest gas plant threatens to detonate it

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We had been holding our breath for weeks, assuming the logistical tension in the Strait of Hormuz like the new normal. However, the war has crossed an irreversible red line. We have gone from a trade blockade to the physical destruction of the world’s energy engine, and the consequences are already being felt in the global economy. The impact has been immediate. The price of natural gas in Europe (the TTF reference contract) has shot up 35% in a matter of hours, resurrecting the worst ghosts of the Ukrainian crisis of 2022. The magnitude of the disaster is such that Susan Sakmar, a professor at the University of Houston, warns in Bloomberg that this attack could be “a turning point for the LNG sector, similar to the attack against Nord Stream or perhaps even worse”, as it is a sudden interruption with no signs of a short-term solution. The chronological climb. To understand how we got here we have to look at the chain of events of the last 48 hours. The original trigger, as revealed The Wall Street Journalwas an attack by Israel against the South Pars field, the jewel in the crown of the Iranian energy industry, with the aim of suffocating the sources of financing for the Revolutionary Guard. And it is not just any objective. The analyst Joaquín Coronado emphasizes that South Paris (shared with Qatar, where it is called North Dome) is the largest natural gas field in the world, hosting 10% of global reserves. 70% of Iranian domestic consumption gas comes from there and generates 80% of the Qatari State’s income. A withering response from Tehran. As pointed out Financial TimesIran launched ballistic missiles against the giant Ras Laffan industrial complex in Qatar, the largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility in the world and home to key infrastructure such as Shell’s Pearl GTL plant. State-owned company QatarEnergy confirmed “extensive damage” and fires at its facilities. Panic spread throughout the Persian Gulf. According to Reutersthe Iranian Revolutionary Guard issued public evacuation orders, declaring vital energy facilities in Saudi Arabia (such as the Samref refinery and the Jubail complex), the United Arab Emirates (the Al Hosn gas field) and Qatar as “legitimate targets.” Shortly afterward, Riyadh intercepted missiles aimed at the Saudi capital. The market has felt the blow. Oil prices have gone crazy. As detailed oil price, a barrel of Brent surpassing the barrier of 110-113 dollars, which represents an increase of almost 60% in this month of March. However, the real problem goes beyond the daily price. Martin Senior, of Argus Media, warns of a “new level of impact”. It is no longer just about the logistical closure of the Strait of Hormuz (through which 20% of the world’s oil passes); The problem is that the time to repair these destroyed facilities could last much longer than the war itself. And the worst omens already have figures. As has revealed exclusively in Reuters CEO of QatarEnergy, the Iranian attack has knocked out 17% of the country’s LNG capacity for a period that could last up to five years. The domino effect. This situation is taking third countries on their way. As explained CrownedIraq has suddenly lost 3,100 megawatts of electricity due to the Iranian supply cut, while Türkiye will be forced to compete fiercely for emergency LNG shipments. In Europe, the panic is evident: the bulletin Europe Express of the Financial Times reveals that war has blown up the EU leaders’ summit in Brussels, where debate on how to improve competitiveness has been completely overshadowed by fear of energy bills and domestic pressure on the emissions trading system. Geopolitics to the limit. Diplomacy appears broken and America’s allies are losing patience. According to the Wall Street JournalArab governments are “furious” because they feel that the US and Israel strategy has put a target on their backs. For its part, Al Jazeera includes the statements of the Saudi Foreign MinisterPrince Faisal bin Farhan, who has warned Iran that the Gulf’s patience “is not unlimited” and they reserve the right to take military action. Qatar, for its part, has expelled the Iranian diplomats, giving them 24 hours to leave the country. In the midst of this chaos, Washington’s role is erratic. President Donald Trump went to social media to deny prior knowledge of the Israeli attack on South Paris. However, how to collect WSJ, Trump issued an ultimatum to Tehran: if it attacks Qatar again, the US will “massively blow up the entire” Iranian oilfield. Faced with rising prices, the White House is seeking desperate measures. The column of Javier Blas in Bloomberg reveals a controversial plan of the US Treasury: to intervene directly in the financial markets by betting on the downside (shorting) in oil futures to artificially make gasoline cheaper before the elections. An idea that experts such as the CEO of CME Group describe as a “biblical disaster” that would destroy confidence in the free market. The peripheral context. To get the full picture, you have to look beyond the explosions. Verisk Maplecroft Analyst warn in Reuters that the greatest danger right now is that the attacks will extend to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline or to Red Sea ports. These were the only viable alternative routes to avoid the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil normally transits. In an attempt to cushion the blow domestically, the Trump administration has temporarily suspended the century-old Jones Act (Jones Act) for 60 days, allowing foreign-flagged ships to transport oil and gas between US ports to reduce costs. The dead end. The panorama is bleak. As they reflect on Five Daysthe apparent lightness with which this conflict has developed has dragged us into a dead end. Iran has shown that it does not need to win a conventional war; It is enough for him to set the energetic heart of the planet on fire. Even if a ceasefire were signed tomorrow and ships sailed freely through the Strait of … Read more

Spaniards, the price war at gas stations has begun. And Repsol is the first to launch its attack

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The price of gasoline has skyrocketed. Diesel is through the roof. It has already been dropped that The Government has studied discounts on purchases of fuel as it already did in 2022. And while the Spanish are looking for the cheapest gas stations to refuel, service stations have just opened a war to continue attracting customers. through the clouds. If we talk about average prices, we are still far from the figures that we end up paying for gasoline and diesel in 2022. In the days that followed the first stages of the Ukrainian War, gasoline came to reflect an average price in Spain of 2.152 euros/liter and diesel 2.106 euros/liter, according to the portal dieselgasolina.com which monitors the price of all service stations in the country. Today, March 19, gasoline reflects an average price of 1,784 euros/liter on average. 98 gasoline already scales at 1,938 euros/liter. The basic diesel is already paid at 1,906 euros/liter and the “premium” at 1,988 euros/liter. With these data, gasoline is about 40 cents/liter of what was paid in 2022 but diesel is already at 20 cents/liter. Not only that. If we look back we find a brutal increase in prices. On March 1, the average price of gasoline was 1.495 euros/liter. That is, in 19 days the average price has increased by almost 30 cents/liter. Diesel is even more worrying, rising almost 50 cents/liter from the 1,447 that it reflected on average on March 1. A relief to the pocket. At least cosmetically. That is what happened in 2022 when the Government applied a fuel reduction of 20 cents/liter. It was a flat rate for all drivers which partially alleviated the effect of rising fuel prices, without taking into account if the client was doing it for recreational useto go to work or because he was a professional who needed it to provide his services. However, prices continued to rise and just a few days after the aid began to be applied, which arrived when gasoline was 1.84 euros/liter, we were already paying the same than before the subsidy. Did the marketers take advantage to continue raising prices and increase their business? The CNMC suspected so. Repsol tightens. Although rumors point to a possible subsidy again, oil companies have already begun to take positions in the face of a new price war. The most ambitious has been Repsol, which has in its Waylet program the best tool to build customer loyalty. The company has announced that double your discounts with Waylet. That is, now they deduct 10 cents/liter for each refueling. But Repsol has turned Waylet into its own ecosystem from which it is difficult to get out. If you have electricity contracted with Repsol, the savings double and go from 10 cents/liter to 20 cents/liter. And if you have other contracted services, such as car or home insurance, the discount is 40 cents/liter. Added to this are the discounts with every electric car recharge and domestic rates or subscriptions outside the home, which is why they have managed to position themselves as a very attractive option for those who have both technologies at home, combustion and electricity. A price war. Repsol, yes, is the company that has the highest prices on the market, according to dieselgasolina.com. On average, gasoline at Repsol costs 1,763 euros/liter and diesel 1,861 euros/liter. Moeve, the second most expensive supplier, is very far away, with an average price of 1,693 euros/liter and 1,760 euros/liter for gasoline and diesel respectively. The gap with low cost is gigantic. Alcampo currently sells gasoline at 1,594 euros/liter and diesel at 1,706 euros/liter. However, Repsol has a reason to push: low cost. They explain in Expansion that these service stations are more sensitive to price increases because the volume of each purchase is smaller. They do not have the storage capacity of large companies, which forces them to buy more often and, therefore, increasingly more expensive when the price skyrockets. This reduces your profit margins. And although in the middle they assure that the low cost ones continue to be cheaper, the truth is that the margin is narrowing. When the difference is small, it is easier for Repsol to gain followers and build customer loyalty with large discounts since “cheap gasoline” loses much of its appeal. This loss of competitiveness translates into the results of dieselgasolina.com that collects that Ballenoil has, right now, gasoline more expensive than Moeve, just one step below Repsol. under the magnifying glass. The aggressive discounts on gasoline have fueled the debate about the extent to which oil companies are taking advantage of the situation. In 2022, Repsol has already taken the opportunity to make aggressive discounts. Those, according to the CNMCthey took advantage to try to take smaller gas stations out of the market. Those days, low-cost service stations already assured that the Government subsidy was suffocating them due to the particularities of their business model. Just a few days ago, The OCU has already filed a complaint with the CNMC that the increases that were occurring in the price of fuel were being abusive. They noted that according to the Official Gazette of the European Union, Spain was the third country in which prices had increased the most and that the cost of diesel was higher than the European average. As in the case of Expansion According to his calculations, the low cost ones were the ones that reflected the most striking increases. It remains to be seen what the response of the rest of the service stations is. Repsol has already shown that it has room for maneuver. In 2022, the oil companies that entered the game did so in the same way, with wide discounts within their loyalty plans. And that has some clear losers: the low cost ones. Photo | Juanedc In Xataka | Fear of gasoline at 2 euros per liter: the sector is already preparing for the worst after the start of the war in Iran

“We felt cheated.” Even gas station owners are freaking out about the sudden, meteoric rise in oil

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The missiles fell and the energy markets soared. When the conflict officially began on February 28 between the US, Israel and Iran and its expansion through the Middle East, the energy markets responded to the new scenario and in more or less two weeks, the barrel of Brent has already risen by 50% according to EIA data. At gas stations, the price of fuel also rose overnight. The rapid rise in fuel. Below these lines you can see how the average price of fuel in Spain has evolved according to the data extracted from the Ministry of Ecological Transition of the States and compiled by the Dieselogasoline website. Thus, if we closed February with a price of €1,493/l for Unleaded 95 and €1,548/l for Diesel A+, March has been a relentless uphill climb for all fossil fuels. Today they mark €1,727/l and €1,935/l respectively. With this panorama and the figure of 2 euros/liter on the horizonthe first days already There were long lines at some service stations. before what was coming. Evolution of fuel prices in Spain in March. Dieselogasolina.com The perfect storm. With the blockade of the Strait of Hormuzthe place through which approximately 20% of the world’s production of crude oil and liquefied natural gas passes, confirmation that China turns off the tap of its exports to meet domestic demand, the slowdown in activity of some deposits and that large merchant companies are paralyzed or surrounding all of Africa to satisfy demand at the cost of a longer and more expensive route, it is clear that the scenario for buying oil looks bleak. In fact, not even the International Energy Agency release 400 million barrels of emergency reserves (the largest mobilization in history) was enough for the market to react. Ultimately, that number equivalent about four days of world consumption or about 20 days of what passes through the Strait of Hormuz. And it could be worse: as the spokesman for the Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps explained: “They will not be able to artificially lower the price of oil. Prepare for oil to reach $200 per barrel,” picks up Al Jazeera. Instability, the reduction in supply and its use as a measure of pressure summarize the black picture. But that gasoline is not that of war. Although the history of conflicts in the Middle East is an unequivocal precedent to glimpse the rise of fuel and everything, because in practice it has an impact on the logistics of the bulk of the activities: if the fruit store brings its delivery five times a week, those deliveries cost more. And if you travel 50 kilometers a day to get to work, it will also cost you more. Economy of the obvious. However, there is a harsh reality: that fuel that you are already paying at war prices was acquired previously. We are paying prices for the future, those for replacement. And not just consumers: also gas stations. As Michel-Édouard Leclerc, president of the E. Leclerc supermarket chain and its gas stations, said, to public broadcaster Franceinfo: “We felt cheated, just like the drivers, by the almost automatic speed with which prices rose.” In his case, he also announced the reduction of 30 cents at the group’s gas stations in France thanks to negotiations with suppliers. Who sets the price of fuel. In the Spanish state, prices have been free since 1998, as the CNMC explainsbut from here there are several actors that influence: The international market, based on the price of Brent oil or refined oil in the reference markets. The refinery or wholesale operator, which adds its operating and logistics margin until distribution. The gas station operator: if it is a flagship station such as Repsol or BP, the price is practically a matter for the parent company. If it is independent or belongs to a large surface (such as Plenoil or Leclerc), it has more room for fixation. Hence they are the cheapest. The State through taxesmore specifically the Special Tax on Hydrocarbons and VAT. In Xataka | The rocket and the pen: the theory that explains why the rise in gasoline is here to stay In Xataka | There is a hidden war to sell us the cheapest possible gasoline. One that Ballenoil and Plenergy already dominate Cover | Leclerc

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