Taiwan

China has closed a huge chunk of sky for 40 days. And all we know is that space is bigger than Taiwan

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In aviation, advisories restricting the use of airspace usually last just a few days and are linked to very specific operations, while areas without altitude limits are reserved on rare occasions due to its impact on air traffic. In strategic regions of the planet, any prolonged alteration in these patterns is often interpreted as more than a simple technical measure. It just happened in China. An unprecedented air closure. China has closed for 40 days (from March 27 to May 6) a huge maritime airspace without offering any clear explanation, delimiting areas through aeronautical warnings which are normally used for short exercises but in this case they are unusually prolonged. To give us an idea, the extension of that space exceeds the size of Taiwan, which makes the measure difficult to fit within operational normality. The official silence and the scale of the movement suggest a deliberate decision that goes beyond simple air traffic management. What these notices really mean. The NOTAM (Notice to Air Missions) are designed to warn of risks or temporary restrictions, but their usual use is far from the current scenario, since they usually last a few days and are linked to specific, clearly identified maneuvers. Therefore, the combination of an extraordinary duration and the absence of explanations points more to a position of sustained activity more than a specific exercise. A priori, this implies that airspace control is being used as an active tool within a broader strategy. A key space on the regional board. counted the wall street journal A few hours ago, the affected areas extended from the Yellow Sea to the East China Sea, covering areas in front of South Korea and Japan and being located in strategic corridors for any military operation in the region. Although they are far from Taiwan (several hundred km), their location does not seem coincidental and fits with scenarios where the air route control would be decisive. The scale of the reserved area reinforces the idea that this is not a limited trial, but something with deeper operational implications. Signs in the midst of a tense context. The closure also coincides with a moment of high tension in the Indo-Pacific, with military movements in Japan, pressure about Taiwan and diplomatic activity relevant in parallel. Not only that. It also occurs after a striking pause on Chinese military flights near Taiwan, followed of its resumptionsuggesting a recalibration of activity. In this context, the measure can be interpreted as a way to send strategic messages without the need for explicit statements. Ambiguity as a strategy. In short, and although there are precedents for similar airspace reservations, they had never been so long nor so widewhich marks a clear difference compared to previous practices. If you like, this ambiguity also allows China to maintain operational flexibility, test scenarios and, ultimately, generate uncertainty among its rivals without publicly committing. The result is a signal that is difficult to interpret, one that, possibly or precisely because of this, multiply your impact strategic. Image | LG Images In Xataka | In silence, China is making giant strides in a race that until now it was not leading: space. In Xataka | The US opted for the quality of the F-35 rather than quantity. China opted for the opposite and it is already a problem

Samsung is tired of being second in the chip race. Now they are preparing to dethrone the titan of Taiwan

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When we talk about artificial intelligence, there are several proper names that star in the conversation. NVIDIA has become the foundation and cement of AI thanks both to their products as, above all, your money. But it’s impossible to leave Samsung out of the equation. Your HBM4 memories They are the ones that will allow NVIDIA and AMD manufacture their platforms new generation, but South Koreans do not want to stop there. They seek to be the largest advanced factory in the world and have launched a plan to wipe TSMC where it hurts the most. In the expansion throughout the United States. An x8 thanks to AI. 2025 was a transition year for Samsung. While its great rival in the memoir segment –SK Hynix– dominated the HBM chip marketSamsung is preparing to make the leap with HBM4 chips. This is the new generation of high-bandwidth memory designed to power the new AI platforms from both NVIDIA and Samsung. The effort paid off by overtaking SK and becoming the supplier of the two giants, and it is something that is already materializing. At least in estimates profit, of course. Now the company forecast profits of about 38 billion dollars for the first quarter of the year, something that destroys the profits of the same period last year, being eight times more. Texas. The company does not stop manufacturing the new HBM4 memory, but even so it cannot satisfy the enormous demand of its customers and there are already those who expect that the prices of these chips will increase by more than 50%. To meet demand, Samsung is moving, and The United States is key in its ambitious expansion. The South Korean company seeks to invest 37,000 million dollars in US soil, and 17,000 million of them they will stop to the Taylor, Texas plant. According to Korea Heraldthe company is finalizing hiring for this semiconductor plant where they hope to produce cutting-edge 2-nanometer chips. It is estimated that 1,500 people will be directly employed and the idea is to produce transistors with gate-all-around architecture. TSMC in the spotlight. Recent reports indicate that Samsung has already begun producing test units of chips in that lithography with the aim of beginning mass production by 2027. But this expansion is not only occurring in the United States. At the Pyeongtaek Campus, Samsung’s operations center, building a new factory for which Samsung has just ordered 20 EUV lithography machines valued at almost $8 billion. As it could not be otherwise, they are from ASML and it is estimated that the plant will have 70 units in total to support the production of HBM4 memory chips. And these two movements have one goal in mind: to dethrone the queen of semiconductors. Currently, TSMC takes the lead with NVIDIA and Apple as its best clientsbut Samsung is another industry giant that may not take the global throne, but is aiming for something more concrete: to be the one who leads the way in the United States. Both Samsung and TSMC are in full expansion throughout the United States, but if Samsung manages to start mass manufacturing of 2nm chips by 2027, it would overtake TSMC -focused on 2/3nm chips– in that development of advanced chips in the United States. It is still a vital race, since Tesla, Apple, NVIDIA or AMD are trying to get chips manufactured in the US and thus meet the demands of Donald Trump’s government. Trojan horse. In the end, it’s a move that Samsung can only win from. On the one hand, expand its HBM4 chip capacity to power AI platforms that do not seem to stop increasing in the short term. On the other hand, continuing to settle on American soil where it maintains a battle with the Taiwanese giant. But, also, Samsung is one of the founding members of the EPIC program of Applied Materials together with SK Hynix. They are positioning themselves to be the big player in semiconductors both as a factory and when it comes to designing machines and processes that allow for shorter development times for cutting-edge chips. and all this foreign companies are doing it on US soil when what the current government wanted was for were American companies those who will take the lead. In fact, Samsung’s plans are so ambitious that they are already looking for master 1nm chip production by 2030. In Xataka | ASML has discovered a way to further improve its SVU machines. This is terrible news for China and the US.

Taiwan produces 90% of the world’s advanced chips. Its natural gas reserves last exactly 12 days

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In global energy markets, alarm bells do not always ring loudly; Sometimes all you have to do is watch where the boats are sailing. While the West observes the already known Third Gulf War With a mixture of horror and remoteness, Asia is suffering the direct impact. The colossal Ras Laffan facility in Qatar—which processes about a fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG)— has suffered damage by 17% of its infrastructure after the Iranian attacks. 12 days. At the exact center of the geopolitical target is Taiwan. The island has a practical monopoly on the world’s most advanced chips, but its “silicon shield” hangs by an extremely fragile logistical thread: an energy supply chain whose legal security threshold requires a minimum of just 11 to 12 days of natural gas reserves. The fatal panorama in Asia. Asia is on the front line of this fuel crisis as it buys more than 80% of the crude oil that transits through the blocked Strait of Hormuz. The nations of the region have had to quickly dust off the survival manuals of the COVID-19 era. Philippines has become the first country in declaring a state of “national energy emergency”, warning of an imminent danger and turning to coal to reduce costs. In South Korea, the government has asked its citizens Take shorter showers, use public transportation, and avoid charging your phones at night. Sri Lanka declared on Wednesdays as a holiday to save fuel, and in Thailand, officials have received the order to take off their suits, use the stairs and telework. china from chill. However, the contrast with China it’s abysmal. While its neighbors panic, the Asian giant observes the chaos coldly. Five years ago, Xi Jinping ordered to secure the country’s “energy rice bowl.” Today, thanks to a massive accumulation of sanctioned crude oil (bought cheaply from Russia or Iran), the shielding of renewables and a vehicle park where electric cars are the majority, China has built an invisible Great Wall that isolates it from fossil volatility. A trade war against the clock. This hydrocarbon drought not only turns off the lights, but paralyzes the industry. According to Commonwealth Magazinethe petrochemical and plastics sector has been the first major victim. The giant Formosa Petrochemical has had to issue force majeure notices after running out of raw materials, and prices of key materials such as ABS (used in car parts) have soared by up to 50%. At a logistical level, a trade war has broken out ruthless battle between Europe and Asia to seize the few available LNG shipments. Spot prices in Asia have doubled, and ships originally sailing to Spain or France are diverting their course to the Pacific in the face of more lucrative offers. In this Darwinian scenario, South Asia is acting as the global “shock absorber”: price-sensitive countries, such as Pakistan or Bangladesh, cannot compete and are forced to destroy demand or paralyze industries, leaving gas available for the giants that can afford it. To mitigate the blow on their own streets, governments like Japan They plan to inject billions in subsidies, while Taiwan has committed to absorb 60% of the increase in crude oil prices. Taiwan’s “Achilles heel” and the check on chips. If there is a critical point in this crisis, It is the island of Taiwan. In 2025, Taiwan relied on imports to meet 95% of its energy needs, including more than 99% of its oil and natural gas demand. Before the war, it received more than 38% of its annual natural gas supply and approximately 70% of its crude oil from the Middle East. The structural problem is time. While nations like South Korea have the capacity to store gas for 52 days and Japan for three weeks, Taiwan is walking on the wire. As pointed out Bloombergis an almost non-existent room for maneuver for an island where electricity generation based on natural gas has expanded to almost 48%. An immediate buffer. To avoid collapse in the short term, the Taiwanese Ministry of Economy has acted quickly with a checkbook. Minister Kung Ming-hsin has confirmed that supply planning is already covered for March, April and May, and they have even secured half of their replacement agreements for the month of June. Away from the imminent blackout, the island’s reserves have managed to remain above the safety threshold of 12 days since the fighting broke out. However, this short-term patch does not turn off the alarms. The real danger lurks in the summer, when high temperatures historically trigger electricity demand. A prolonged blackout: global chaos. The semiconductor sector contributes around 20% of Taiwan’s GDP. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which produces about 90% of the chips most advanced in the world (vital for AI and military technology), alone consumes approximately 9% of all electricity on the island. But gas is not the only missing input; Added to this is the disruption in the supply of secretive but vital raw materials such as bromine and helium (a third of which is processed in Qatar). The experts They warn that if the interruption of helium exceeds 14 days, the chip production lines will go into technical stoppage. With summer just around the corner and electricity demand about to skyrocket, the island operates at its limit. The pressure is so immense that the historically reluctant Taiwanese government is already openly debating the reactivation of nuclear energy, recognizing that the explosive growth in electricity demand linked to the development of Artificial Intelligence is changing all the rules of the energy game. The geopolitical board: opportunism and contradictions. Beijing has not been slow to intervene. Taking advantage of the panic, the Chinese government has thrown a poisoned lifeline. According to Chen Binhua, spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, collected in South China Morning Postthe Asian giant offered the island a stable, abundant and cheap energy supply in exchange for accepting “peaceful reunification.” Taipei’s response was blunt: Vice Minister of Economy, Ho Chin-tsang, rejected the offer, calling it “cognitive … Read more

The war in Iran has given China an unprecedented opportunity. And she has just been transferred to Taiwan so she can think twice

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Taiwan is one of the most advanced economies in the world, yet it produces less than 5% of the energy it consumes. In just a few days, it can go from being a key center of global technology to depend completely of what happens thousands of kilometers from its coasts. And China has seen an opportunity. Energy as a geopolitical weapon. The war in the Middle East has triggered a chain reaction that goes far beyond the battlefield: with energy routes strained and the Strait of Hormuz turned into a global bottleneckcountries have set out to ensure supplies at any price. In this context of urgency, energy has ceased to be just an economic resource and has become a direct tool of political pressure, one capable of reconfiguring alliances, dependencies and strategic balances in a matter of weeks. The offer that changes the board. And it is precisely in that scenario where China has reformulated your proposal towards Taiwan with a much more pragmatic approach: instead of appealing so much to national identity, the offer is aimed at a concrete and urgent need, energy security. The idea? Beijing offers guaranteed access to stable, cheaper and less exposed resources to external crises in exchange for peaceful “reunification”presenting integration as a technical solution to a structural problem. The message leaves no room for doubt: under the umbrella of a “strong power,” the island could free yourself from uncertainty of global markets and their dependence on vulnerable maritime routes. Gas station in Taiwan A known vulnerability. The proposal is not coincidental, of course, but rather points directly to a critical weakness what was known: Taiwan almost all the energy matters that consumes and depends largely on supplies that pass through areas of high geopolitical risk. Beijing not only presents itself as an alternative supplier, but also suggests that this exposure can get worse if the conflict is prolonged, reinforcing the idea that the solution is to reduce this external dependence. At the same time, it proposes a future of energy integration (electrical networks, gas pipelines, interconnections) that would eliminate a large part of that vulnerability. Between seducing and pressuring. There is no doubt, this strategy of “energy persuasion” It does not replace the rest of the pressure tools that China has had active for a long time. It we have counted before, those military maneuvers around the island, the blockade drills and the constant presence of Chinese forces are part of an environment of sustained pressure that seeks to wear down without provoking open conflict. Under this scenario, the energy adds thus to a set of levers (military, economic and diplomatic) designed to progressively reduce Taiwan’s room for maneuver. Taiwanese rejection and calculation. Taiwan’s response remained to be known. Faced with the suggestive offer, the island has officially responded firmlyrefusing to exchange sovereignty for energy supply and defending that it has sufficient reserves and diversified sources, especially with the support of the United States. As analysts point out, beyond the technical feasibility of the Chinese proposal, the problem is more credibility: The Hong Kong experience has eroded confidence in the model of “one country, two systems”and for a large part of Taiwanese society accepting this agreement would mean beginning a process of gradual loss of autonomy. Long term play. This “no” from Taiwan has not been interpreted in Beijing as something resounding. Possibly, because deep down, the Beijing proposal reflects a much broader strategy: taking advantage of global crises to present itself as a provider of stability in the face of an increasingly volatile environment. There is, therefore, no urgency or immediate rush to force reunification, but rather an accumulation of advantages that, over time, make the option of integrating less costly than resisting. The war in the East has thus opened an unexpected window for that narrative, turning energy into a political argument first order and demonstrating that, in the new geopolitical situation, the control of resources can be as decisive as that of territories. Image | 總統府, Picryl In Xataka | The same day that the US sent its marines to Iran, Taiwan woke up with déjà vu: China has surrounded it with 26 planes and 7 warships In Xataka | US experts are clear about the year in which China will try its luck with Taiwan: the countdown has already begun

In 2021 a man made a military prediction and since then Taiwan and the US have been preparing for a date: 2027

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In a military sense, there are few things as influential as a date that no one has officially set. Sometimes one sentence in a parliamentary hearing is enough for governments, armies and analysts to begin reorganizing budgets, exercises and strategies for years. In the Indo-Pacific, a figure pronounced some time ago ended up becoming a kind geopolitical clock. In fact, today marks the planning of various powers. The prediction on the calendar. In March 2021, a seemingly technical testimony before the US Senate ended up becoming one of the most influential points of reference in the Indo-Pacific military strategy. Then Admiral Philip Davidson warned that the rapid growth of Chinese military power could endanger Taiwan “within the next six years,” a statement that implicitly set a date: 2027. That estimate, based on intelligence analysis on the modernization of the People’s Liberation Army, quickly became what many strategists called the “Davidson window”. Since then, the number was installed in military planning of Washington, Taipei and their allies, triggering an investment careerwar exercises and military reinforcements throughout the Pacific. 2027 and the centenary. Of course, the reason why that date seemed plausible was closely related to the people themselves. Beijing’s strategic objectives. 2027 marks the centenary of the armed wing of the Chinese Communist Party, the People’s Liberation Army, and Xi Jinping’s leadership has set that year as a key stage to complete a major phase of military modernization. The plan is part of a broader calendar that seeks to have “basically modernized” armed forces by 2035 and capable of rivaling any world power around 2049. Although Beijing has never officially announced that this anniversary is linked to an invasion of Taiwan, the temporal coincidence between military modernization and increasing demonstrations of strength around the island has reinforced the perception that 2027 could become a critical moment. The strategy in the Pacific. As the years went by, that prediction took on a life of its own. Washington increased significantly its military spending aimed at competing with China and began to reinforce strategic infrastructure on Pacific islands to facilitate the deployment of forces. At the same time, the United States approved billions of dollars in arms sales to Taiwan, while Taipei began to adjust its military planning around a possible invasion scenario towards the end of the decade. Even the major Taiwanese military exercises have passed to simulate explicitly a Chinese attack in 2027, reflecting how a single strategic estimate ended up becoming a true geopolitical clock for the entire region. A surprise attack. For a long time, military analysis assumed that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be impossible to conceal. A deployment of hundreds or thousands of ships, troops and equipment along the Chinese coast would generate obvious signals detectable by satellites and intelligence services weeks before the start of the operation. However, some analysts now warn that this assumption could be too optimistic. Recent research has suggested that China could attempt forms of attack faster or surprisingleveraging new tactics and technologies to reduce advance notice time. This scenario is especially worrying to Taiwan, which has historically relied on having enough time to react and mobilize its defenses. Increasingly intense military career. Meanwhile, Chinese military power has continued to expand at great speed. Beijing’s defense budget has increased steadily over the last decade and the country has introduced new capabilities that could be key in an eventual conflict: long-range missiles, advanced drones, new aircraft carriers and ships designed to transport troops and material to hostile coasts. These transformations do not guarantee that an invasion is imminent, of course, but they are changing the balance military in the Taiwan Strait and fueling concerns about the future of the region. The domino effect of other wars. The international context adds another layer of uncertainty to this strategic calculation. Conflicts in other regions, especially the Middle East, are forcing the United States to consume large quantities of ammunition, interceptors and military resources that were originally intended to reinforce deterrence in Asia. Analysts warn that a prolonged war in other theaters could delay deliveries of weapons to Taiwan and further strain US defense industrial capacity, where there is already a significant delay in military orders destined for the island. A strategic watch. Although neither China nor the United States have officially set a timetable for a conflict, the idea of ​​2027 has become a point psychological reference for governments, military and analysts. Some believe that this date has fueled unnecessary fears and an arms race in the region, while others believe that it has served to wake up Washington and its allies facing a historic change in the balance of power. In any case, the prediction made in 2021 has left a more than profound mark: today, in the barracks, offices and strategy centers of the Indo-Pacific, the calendar advances with a figure marked in red. 2027… and China. Image | 中文（臺灣）：​中華民國總統府, 總統府, Al Jazeera In Xataka | “We have never seen anything like this”: if China invades Taiwan, Taiwan will not notice because a drone has been disguised as an optical illusion for months In Xataka | An island has become the new red line against China: it has Taiwan in front of it and Japan is going to fill it with missiles

Taiwan has almost as many motorcycles as inhabitants and a major challenge: converting them into electric ones

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Taiwan has two records if we talk about mobility. It is the first country in the world in motorcycles per inhabitant. And it is the first country in the world in number of vehicles per inhabitant, as long as we remove from the equation San Marino, Guernsey (autonomous islands off the coast of Normandy that respond to the United Kingdom), the autonomous state of Jersey and Andorra, all of them spaces where, let’s say, they are used as monetary refuges. According to the data As collected by the statistics group within the United Nations, Taiwan has 999 registered vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants. But that data hides another record: almost 600 of those vehicles are motorcycles. This means that Taiwan, with its almost 24 million inhabitants, therefore has another almost 24 million vehicles. And the most recent data says that it also has more than 14 million motorcycles. The data reaches its extreme in Taipei, the capital, where there is a number slightly higher than the national average with 65 motorcycles per 100 inhabitants. Is it a lot? It’s a lot. To give us an idea, in Spain there are around 95 motorcycles (53 of them are mopeds) per 1,000 inhabitants, according to data from the European Union. The country with the most registered motorcycles is Greece, which reaches 251 motorcycles (150 of them are mopeds) per 1,000 inhabitants. A figure that doubles (by far) the Asian country. This congestion of motorcycles represents a problem for the State in environmental matters. And they want to change it by jumping to the electric motorcycle. A most ambitious challenge According to data from the Taiwan Ministry of Transportation and CommunicationsIn 2024, 14.6 million motorcycles will be counted. They are, therefore, a substantial part of the country’s carbon emissions. 55% of those recorded in Taiwan are produced by transportation. With the aim of converting the fully electric vehicle fleet by 2050the country has set various objectives ahead. The most ambitious is to prohibit the sale of non-electric motorcycles from 2040. Previously, the State has launched a campaign for customers to opt for this technology. To do this, they explain in Motorpassionthe State is giving huge sums of money for the purchase of electric vehicles. Any electric vehicle, whether motorcycle, car or truck, is taken into account in its plans to help with the purchase. But it is in the former where the discounts are most juicy because they can reach 3,300 Taiwanese dollars (NT$), about 95 euros in direct exchange, in a country where a motorcycle is around 900 euros. Those looking to change a car do have greater incentives, with discounts of up to NT$16,000 (about 460 euros). Although the state is putting pressure for motorists and drivers to change their vehicles, the results are being somewhat discreet. These subsidies have been active for three years and between 2022 and 2025 they have managed to remove from the market (to reach the maximum aid you have to scrap another combustion vehicle) just over 120,000 vehicles, adding all types of types and sizes. A figure that pales only with motorcycle sales, since each year about 700,000 vehicles of this type are registered on the market. That is, in three years the sum of motorcycles, cars and trucks replaced It barely exceeds total scooter sales by 5% in the same period of time. Getting the motorcycle market to switch to the electric market is key for the country. Not only because still the cheapest way to get aroundalso because it is key when it comes to reduce dependency that the country has from foreign oil. Having mobility that depends largely on renewable energies produced in the country itself is a significant step in its relations with the outside world. Photo | Faye Yu In Xataka | The first commercially ready solid state battery is here. And an electric motorcycle is going to take it

If China invades Taiwan, Taiwan will not notice because a drone has been disguised as an optical illusion for months

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In modern aviation, each aircraft carries a unique “digital license plate” that identifies it to the world in real time. It makes perfect sense. It is a system designed to provide transparency and security, but it also demonstrates a most disturbing paradox: what appears on a screen is not always what is really flying. China has just put it into practice. A bird, a fighter or a drone. A Reuters investigation has revealed that, since last August, at least 23 flights over the South China Sea have been registered under the callsign YILO4200, associated with a long-range Chinese military drone, although the signals it emitted told a different story. It happens that on civil radars it appeared as a sanctioned Belarusian freighter, also as a British Typhoon fighterlike a North Korean plane or even like a Western executive jet. These were not specific errors or programming errors. Was a deliberate impersonation of air identities by manipulating 24-bit transponder codes that identify position, course and speed. “We have never seen anything like this.” The middle counted that open intelligence analysts and those responsible for aerial tracking platforms agreed on something unusual: this pattern was unprecedented. It was not the classic drone flying “in the dark” without emitting a signal. It was just the opposite. He flew showing a false identity, changing it even in the middle of the journey, testing in real time to what extent he could “dirty” the aerial chart. “We had never seen anything like this,” summarized one of the experts who analyzed the data. It didn’t seem like an accident or a technical anomaly. It seemed like a conscious attempt at operational deception. The ultimate optical illusion. The drone, identified as a Wing Loong 2 With a 20-meter wingspan, it took off from Hainan and traced star- or hourglass-shaped patterns for hours over sensitive areas, including naval routes and areas frequented by submarines. In one of the missions the identity of a Typhoon of the RAF with that of three other aircraft in just twenty minutes before virtually “landing” like the Belarusian plane. On another occasion he posed as that same freighter while the real aircraft was simultaneously taking off in Europe. It was a full-fledged aerial optical illusion sustained for months. Taiwan as a backdrop. Not only that. Apparently, the trajectories were not random. Many were projected towards the Bashi channelcritical point between Taiwan and the Philippinesand when superimposed on a map of the island they crossed areas of military interest around Taipei and its southern coast. In fact, they also brushed against American and Japanese bases in Okinawa and the Ryukyu. It wasn’t just about surveillance. The pattern therefore suggests a digital rehearsal to a bigger stagea test of how to generate confusion in the early stages of a crisis in the Strait. Confusion in decisive milliseconds. They remembered in research that, in highly automated conflicts, milliseconds can separate detection from firing. Introducing noise, false identities and contradictory echoes can delay critical decisions and overwhelm chains of command. Although masking would hardly completely fool advanced military radars, it can sow doubts, hide intelligence missions, or fuel disinformation operations. The key is not so much to disappear. Is seem like something else. If China invades, the warning could be a fiction. Ultimately, the most disturbing idea is not only that a drone has been eight months in disguise in front of Taiwan’s radars. It is rather that that capacity has been tested with patience, repetition and apparent impunity. If you will, if China finally decides to go beyond in Taiwannot even the island itself is going to realize at the first moment what it is seeing on its screens. Because from now on, what appears might not be what actually flies. And that is the true revolution of the movement: a possible invasion that begins, not with missiles, but with a false identity flashing on the radar. An “ally” that comes close and that in reality is not so much. Image | 中文（臺灣）：​中華民國總統府, Mztourist – In Xataka | Satellite images leave no doubt: China has concentrated thousands of fishing boats off Japan, and its idea is not to fish In Xataka | China has just mounted the largest cannon in its history on the bow of a ship. And that can only point in one direction

It has Taiwan in front of it and Japan is going to fill it with missiles

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At the westernmost tip of Japan there is a paradise place where, on clear days, you can see another territory from the coast. It is the same enclave where they live more native horses than school-age children. That isolated corner, for decades outside the big headlines, has begun to occupy an unexpected space in the strategic conversations of the Indo-Pacific. Also to become in a fort. A red line. That island has become the new red line against China. The reason? Japan will deploy missiles 100 km from Taiwan. In this way, Yonaguni, the westernmost point of the Japanese archipelago, has gone from being a remote enclave in just a few years. a centerpiece of the Indo-Pacific strategic board. Its location, at the end of the Nansei island chainplaces it right in the geographic arc that connects the East China Sea with the Western Pacific, the same corridor that worries Tokyo and Washington facing a possible conflict in the Taiwan Strait. The calendar changes. A few hours ago, Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi set for the first time a very specific horizon: before March 2031, a set of surface-to-air missile medium range, projectiles with 360 degree coverage capacity and the possibility of intercepting multiple targets simultaneously. The decision is not isolated, but is part of the strategic turn started in 2022 to reinforce defenses on the southwestern islands, shifting the historical focus from Russia to growing Chinese military activity in the East China Sea. The diplomatic context and Chinese pressure. The announcement also comes after months of deterioration between Tokyo and Beijingaggravated by the statements of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi about the possible Japanese involvement if there was an attack on the island of Taiwan that represented an existential threat for the nation. China’s response It was devastatingresponding with trade restrictions, diplomatic pressure and a battery of military demonstrations that, how do we countincluded drone flights and an increased naval presence in the area, while maintaining its claim to Taiwan and its dispute with Japan through the Senkaku Islandsadministered by Tokyo but claimed by Beijing as Diaoyu. The internal transformation. Since 2016, the island has hosted a surveillance unit coastal with about 160 troops, to which electronic warfare capabilities and new military infrastructure will be added. In a community of barely 1,500 inhabitants, where depopulation has been a constant since the postwar period, the presence of military personnel and their families alters the structure demographic and economicgenerating a division between those who see militarization as an investment opportunity and those who fear that the enclave will become a priority objective in the event of conflict. From peripheral paradise to strategic bastion. From that perspective, the expansion of the base, the plans to improve the airport and port and the possible installation of advanced defense systems They consolidate Yonaguni as a key link in the Japanese deterrence architecture. What for decades was a marginal territory is now integrated into a defensive network designed to complicate any attempt to alter the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, sending a clear message about even where is it arranged Japan to arrive to protect what it considers its most sensitive front. The new map. If you will also, the Yonaguni decision reflects a broader transformation in Japanese defense policy, one underpinned by a historic increase of the military budget and the security treaty with the United States, which could drag Tokyo into a larger scale regional conflict. What is clear afterto official statement of Tokyo is that, on the new strategic map of the Indo-Pacific, the small island is no longer a lost point in the ocean: it is the place where Japan has decided mark your limit and where any future crisis could have its first warning signal. Image | GetArchivejpatokal In Xataka | The Japanese island of Yonaguni was known for its beauty and Bad Bunny. Now it is a military fortress because of Taiwan In Xataka | Satellite images leave no doubt: China has concentrated thousands of fishing boats off Japan, and its idea is not to fish

China has just crossed a red line in Taiwan. They are no longer drones, they are their fighters shooting “attached” to the Taiwanese F-16s

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China has been tightening the siege on Taiwan for years with pressure constant and calculated: increasingly frequent air raids, naval exercises large scalesymbolic crosses of the midline of the strait and military deployments designed to rememberwithout firing a single shot, that the island lives under permanent surveillance. This strategy of attrition, made of demonstrations of force and controlled ambiguity, has marked the relationship between Beijing and Taipei long before the current pulse reached disturbing levels. One (another) red line. If a few weeks ago we said that China had taken a qualitative step in its military pressure on Taiwan by crossing the island’s airspace with a military dronehas now redoubled its efforts, going from intimidating maneuvers to direct aerial encounters with manned fighters flying meters away and firing flares near Taiwanese planes, an escalation that multiplies the risk of accident and turns intimidation into something much closer to a deliberate clash. during exercises “Justice Mission”J-16 planes of the People’s Liberation Army not only came dangerously close to Taiwanese F-16s when they came to intercept them near the middle line of the strait, but they also arrived to launch flares at close range, a maneuver considered unsafe even by demanding military standards and that marks a before and after in the face of previous, more indirect provocations. From symbolic pressure to physical risk. In just 24 hours, dozens of Chinese aircraft crossed the midline of the strait and penetrated the airspace controlled by Taiwan, showing a pattern of behavior that no longer seems to seek only to saturate radars or send political messages, but rather to put enemy pilots in extreme situations. Unlike radar jamming or the presence of military drones, these encounters centimeters away introduce a human and physical factor. much more dangerouswhere a mistake, turbulence, or knee-jerk reaction can trigger an immediate crisis between China and Taiwan. One of the Chinese J-16 fighters photographed during Chinese People’s Liberation Army military exercises while being monitored by a Taiwanese F-16V aircraft Intimidating maneuvers. The actions were not limited to direct harassment: Chinese fighters used concealment tactics flying close to H-6K bombers to evade radars, revealing itself, according to local Taiwanese media, “ostentatiously” by displaying missiles at close range, in maneuvers compared by observers to historical tricks of military infiltration. They remembered in the Financial Times That this behavior, described by some sources as more typical of a “thug” than a professional pilot, reinforces the feeling that Beijing is testing new risk thresholds to measure the Taiwanese and allied response. A regional pattern. What happened around Taiwan is not an isolated event, but part of a incident sequence in which the Chinese air force has raised the tone towards neighbors like Japan and the Philippinesincluding blocking radar and firing flares against patrol aircraft. In fact, analysts warn that the next logical step in this escalation could be to operate regularly within the 12 nautical miles of Taiwanese territorial airspace, a scenario that would then exponentially increase the risk of collision or armed confrontation. Political pressure and risk of lack of control. If you like, this increase in boldness coincides with those publicized changes in the chain of command China and with political pressure from Xi Jinping for the armed forces to demonstrate their preparation for an eventual conflict, which could be pushing pilots and commanders to take risks that were previously avoided. Under that prism, Beijing would not only have crossed another red line against Taiwan, but would have entered a phase in which aerial intimidation ceases to be a calculated game and becomes a much more dangerous gamble, one with potentially explosive consequences for regional stability and security. appearance of “third parties” on the board. Image | 日本防衛省・統合幕僚監部, Ministry of National Defense In Xataka | China already has drones capable of shooting with surgical precision at 100 meters. Not good news for Taiwan In Xataka | The biggest geopolitical risk on the planet is not Greenland. It’s a smaller island with a disturbing neighbor: Taiwan

The most surveilled place on the planet is not Ukraine or Taiwan. You are on a Canary Island with thousands of sensors pointing to a lethal threat

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For almost three months, between September and December 2021, the island of La Palma experienced the eruption longest and most destructive of its recent history. It happened when the Tajogait volcanoand opened the earth in the Cumbre Vieja dorsal and forced the evacuation of thousands of people, buried entire neighborhoods under lava and irreversibly altered the landscape and life of the island, inaugurating a new stage in which the end of the fire did not mean the end of the volcano. The town that did not stop breathing volcano. In Puerto Naos The lava never arrived, but the volcano did, seeping under streets, garages and foundations in the form of carbon dioxide, an invisible gas that for years kept the neighborhood evacuated and turned daily life into a permanent risk equation. After the eruption of Tajogaite, the ground continued to exhale CO₂ of magmatic origin, reaching in some points extreme concentrationstypical of a lethal environment, forcing the closure of homes, businesses and beaches while residents learned that the danger no longer burned on the surface, but silently accumulated under their feet. Thousands of sensors and an experiment. They counted this week in a BBC report that has approached the enclave that the response transformed Puerto Naos into the most guarded place in the world in terms of CO₂, with more than 1,300 sensors distributed throughout homes, streets, streetlights, beaches, garages and hotels, connected to a continuous monitoring system capable of detecting any spike in real time. This deployment, driven by the CO₂ Alert projectallowed gas to stop being an unpredictable threat and become a measured, interpreted and managed phenomenon, making it possible the progressive return of the neighbors and the reopening of the urban center, always under the premise that normality here only exists as long as the data confirms that the air continues to be breathable. Living with alarms. For years, life in Puerto Naos was reorganized around the sensorswith garages permanently open for ventilation, closed basements, cordoned off areas and neighbors who learned to live with warning beeps as part of the soundscape. CO₂, denser than air, accumulated in the low points and it became visible like a diffuse waterfall in narrow courtyards, killing small animals along the way, corroding metals and remembering that the volcano was still active even though it was no longer expelling lava, molding not only the terrain but also psychology and decisions of those who refused to leave their home permanently. View of part of Puerto Naos Playa Chica, the pulse. In 2026 the problem is no longer general, but surgical: a small strip in Playa Chica and some specific garages where CO₂ continues to emerge straight from the underground through extremely porous terrain, one described by technicians as a “volcanic Gruyere cheese.” All the effort is now concentrated there, not so much to bring the town back to life (because it has already returned) but to close the last point where the volcano still sets the pace, remembering along the way that the eruption did not end when the fire ceased, but when the subsoil stopped breathing its last breath. Extract gas from the earth. The proven solution successfully by experts changes the traditional logic in these situations: instead of ventilating the buildings, the ground has been ventilated, capturing CO₂ underground and conveying it through pipes to controlled expulsion points near the sea, where the gas is quickly dispersed without danger. Not only that. Tests have shown drastic reductionsgoing from concentrations close to half a million ppm to safe levels. In other words, it has been confirmed that the method works and that the pending challenge is not a conceptual hypothesis, but a technical one, a fine adjustment to avoid load losses and guarantee that the system can operate in a stable and permanent way. Close the volcano. Puerto Naos it’s already openinhabited and functioning, but closing the volcano means turning this experiment into a complete a definitive infrastructureintegrate the extraction of CO₂ into the urban network and accept that the island will continue to be a “volcano” even when it seems calm. Perhaps for this reason, no one expects inaugurations or epic endings to what happened, just a silent moment in which Playa Chica leaves to be an exception and the air will once again be just that, demonstrating that on the island of La Palma the volcanic forces not only have shaped the earthbut also the way in which a community has learned to live, monitor and resist over it. Image | Eduardo RobainaHyperfinch In Xataka | Gran Canaria is increasingly at risk of blackouts. And he already has an idea on the table: imitate Russia in the Arctic In Xataka | The Canary Islands and Galicia have set off the Navy’s alarm bells. Russia’s ghost fleet has arrived in Spain with warships

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