imagination

Satya Nadella on the future of employment: “The fallacy of the fixed amount of work and the lack of imagination prevent us from moving forward”

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In addition to the cost and effects derived from its development, the biggest concern about the future of AI is knowing the impact that this technology will have on the labor market around the world. In fact, we are already beginning to see the first signs: it may not take away our jobs in the short term, but that’s it changing the way we work. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has been interviewed by Fareed Zakari in the cnn and has told his vision of how AI will affect the future of employment. To describe the scenario, Nadella uses a phrase that can seem almost cryptic until its meaning is known: “The fallacy of the fixed amount of work and the lack of imagination prevent us from moving forward.” The fallacy that stops us. Nadella calls it the lump of labor fallacy. It’s an idea widely studied and argues that there are a certain number of tasks to be performed. Employment is defined by these tasks: there are those who build houses, others put pipes, others cables, other furniture, etc. If a machine (or an AI, in this case) automates one of those tasks, fixed quantity of work theory defines that a human has one less task left to do. That is, that job would have been destroyed. For Nadella, that calculation fails because it does not take imagination into account. The typist apocalypse. The CEO of Microsoft gave a fairly descriptive example of how this theory falters in the face of technological advances: “Imagine that in the early 80s, someone said to you: “You know what? Three billion people are going to wake up tomorrow and start typing. “We would have said: and why does the world need three billion typists?” joked the company’s top executive who, according to the CEO of Perplexitybuilt the concept of office work to sell more software and was mainly responsible for the computer implementation in companies. “In the last 40 years, the entire knowledge work economy was created, and all of us have worked in it in different roles,” Nadella concluded. That is, the CEO believes that the future of employment cannot be assessed from the perspective of current labor or work organization needs, because in the future, the needs of companies will be different and the roles of employees will also be different. The fact behind the anecdote is real. In 1980 there were almost a million typists in the US. Today it is a profession that is almost extinct. And yet, office employment remains more active than ever. He just changed the way he worked. Nadella bets that something similar will happen with AI. The process of change. We are already seeing this change in the way of working in some sectors such as software engineers or in the lawyers. “What it means to be a software engineer is changing,” Nadella said. Creating a document and creating a program have become, “to some extent, the same task”: enough ask the AI ​​agent appropriate. This change is already noticeable outside of computing. In the legal sector, some firms treat AI as a quick but unreliable intern. And lawyers, increasingly, as their AI supervisors. Nadella states that: “Our ability to discern what a human does with the output of AI will be the new quality we value.” The value is no longer in typing quickly, but in know what deserves to stay and what to throw away. However, the manager has no doubts about the difficulty that all of humanity will face to complete this change in the labor paradigm: “This process is going to have some changes and a significant displacement (of employment). Not everything is going to be rosy. But when we come out on the other side, I think there will be new jobs that we will value as human beings.” Macrodelegation and microdirection. To explain day-to-day work, Nadella coins his own term: macrodelegation and micromanagement. “Each of us will become better at managing through intentions (madrodelegation) and will have the ability to direct it exactly where we want it (microdirection),” he declared in his interview with the cnn. In other words, the role of employees will be that of conductor of the orchestra of AI agents. An employee would tell them what objectives to achieve, and would supervise that the results delivered by the AI ​​meet that objective and are precise in their execution. That is, AI would not play a substitute role, but rather a collaborative one. “Does that mean that, in some way, the specialized systems engineer that we need to be able to build distributed systems in Azure disappears? No way,” stated the Microsoft CEO. Nadella’s revolution. The manager closed his interview by pointing out one of the fears that Silicon Valley is stirring: that society does not accept the change implied by the arrival of AI and this process of job displacement. There Nadella draws a historical reference. “Revolutions are great, as long as there is a reaction.” The CEO prefers an orderly transition, like the one experienced in England in 1688in which the institutions did not lose control, to a violent rupture as the French Revolutionwhich made the heads of the country’s authorities roll. In Xataka | In 1993 Satya Nadella was a lanky middle man who introduced Excel to developers. Today he is the CEO of Microsoft Image | Microsoft

“Solving problems will not be limited by our ability, but by our imagination.”

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Jeff Bezos has set out to be everywhere both physically and metaphorically. Apart from being behind Amazon (leaving it aside to focus on other projects) or Blue Originhas a “new” company called Prometheus. Its goal is to develop AI systems capable of creating artificial engineersand his latest statements They have heated up the conversation about AI and the future of work. The reason? Qwho boos the AI because he thinks it will take away his job is “very far from reality”, but then he claims that AI will lead to job reductions. Regarding physical presence, Bezos is in Europe these days. Specifically, in Paris, where the Vivatech fair is being held, which we were able to attend and where he gave a talk about the obsession of large companies with exploring space, reach the Moon, explore it and create “clouds” of satellites orbiting the Earth. The talk was about that, but we had to ask about the controversy, about Prometheus and about that future of work. And he wondered. And if you thought he was going to cast himself on the argument that AI will create jobs…you thought well and, in fact, he has gone further: he has compared it to the Industrial Revolution. Prometheus and the AI ​​that will be good at doing things, not just knowing things Prometheus is neither a model nor a technology: it is a company. Bezos founded it in 2024 and already has 150 employees spread across three countries. It has a valuation of $41 billion and is currently in deals to raise a $100 billion fund. It seems outrageous because it is, but on repeated occasions, these businessmen have declared that we are in a new golden ageand at Vivatech 2026, Bezos has said precisely that. “We live in the most incredible time in history. There has not been a better time to found a company” and Prometheus is an example. Your product will be an AI that does things, not just knows things. This is where the ‘gravy’ is, since what they are doing is developing AI systems capable of assisting in the entire engineering process, from start to finish. It will cover everything from the initial design, simulation, prototypes, manufacturing and launch, and an example that Bezos has put on the table on several occasions, and that he has repeated, is that of the engine for a new generation airplane. Because the idea of ​​this new AI is that it is capable of assisting an engineer, “empowering” him, according to Bezosso that they can make tools much easier and much faster. If developing a jet engine takes a decade of work, the idea is that these artificial engineers will be able to create it in five years first, then in three, then in two… “If we can accelerate that process, everything will change,” comments Bezos in his talk. For him, the key is how Prometheus is focusing on developing this AI. “We have great language models, but not one focused on building things. If I read 100 books on how to be a great athlete, I will know a lot, but I will still be a bad athlete. That’s why we have to change the way we train these models,” he says. “You can’t have a model that only reads. You have to have a model that is good at doing things” One of the legs that Bezos focuses on is that speed when developing something. He comments that industries embark on very long development cycles, of five or ten years, before having products, and something is necessary to change that dynamic. Something similar happens with semiconductors and chips. In fact, in the United States there are a center called Epic which has Applied Materials, Samsung or SK Hynix behind it and is focusing not only on developing machines to create chips, but also on tools for reduce development cycles for these cutting-edge chips. That is, it is not an approach that only Bezos is working on. The problem is another: how he is defending it. AI, the future of work and the new Industrial Revolution “If you take a step back, 6,000 years ago someone invented the plow and everything changed. Then someone invented the steam engine and everything changed again. We want to be in that cycle to make a leap in productivity and prosperity,” Bezos declared at the Paris fair. This argument of comparing artificial intelligence with the Industrial Revolution is not new. In recent months, the tone of university graduations in the US has been the presence of AI gurus telling how this technology is the future. The response has been young people worried about their current job booing the statements. “Solving problems will not be limited by our ability to execute something, but by our imagination” Because there is a fear that AI will end up replacing them and Bezos is not hiding too much. Returning to the engine example, a few days ago he commented that now it takes 100 people to make a next-generation jet engine, but with Prometheus AI it will take 10. He also stated that “despite the fact that the number of people who will be needed is being reduced by 10technology will create opportunities to multiply those jobs by 10.” The problem is what kind of job it will be, since software engineers will be needed (for the moment, at least), but Other jobs can be completely replaced. “I understand that there is a lot of concern about how AI will make humans redundant, but, AI will actually create jobs because people will focus on creating and finding other problems to solve,” he points out. “Solving problems will not be limited by our ability to execute something, but by our imagination,” he points out. And, I guess, the imagination is infinite… In Xataka | Laying off employees and saving for AI seemed like a seamless plan to make more profits. The data show that not

The big question behind the US visit to Beijing is not Taiwan. They are two Chinese SUVs with roofs that have fired the imagination

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The scene took place in 2018, during a military parade in Moscow. So several Western analysts spent hours trying to identify a strange russian truck covered by tarps and antennas of which no one offered explanations. Years later it was learned that it was part of one of the systems electronic warfare most advanced in the Kremlin. Since then, every rare vehicle that appears near a world leader has ceased to seem like a simple logistical eccentricity. Two SUVs and an uncomfortable question. For years, American presidential visits to Beijing revolved around the same topics: Taiwan, trade, sanctions or the military balance in Asia. However, they had TWZ analysts that in Donald Trump’s recent visit there was a detail that ended up attracting much more attention among military analysts and technological observers: two Chinese Hongqi SUVs with huge modified roofs that seemed to hide some kind of special system. They were not particularly elegant or discreet. In fact, they seemed heavy and strange. That is precisely why they attracted so much attention. The feeling they left is that China wanted teach something without showing it really. The big question after the trip was no longer just what Washington and Beijing had talked about, but what the hell exactly those vehicles were hiding. Modern warfare and protecting the sky. The most repeated theory links to something that we have been countingand these roofs could house electronic warfare systems, advanced communications or even anti-drone capabilities. The idea makes sense because the presidential caravans begin to face a relatively new problem: cheap drones capable of threatening even extremely protected world leaders. Ukraine, the Middle East and the Red Sea have shown that it no longer takes a sophisticated missile to create a huge security problem. That’s it forcing to transform VIP convoys in small fortresses mobile electronics. The Hongqi seen in Beijing fit perfectly in that trend: lots of interior space, extra weight and modifications probably designed to transport complex equipment rather than people. Caravan converted into a command center. The interesting thing is that those SUVs were not an isolated anomaly. The caravan also included Modified Suburbans, Lincoln Navigators, and Ford vans with antennas, sensors, and special roof structures. Everything suggested a mobile architecture of communications, surveillance and electronic interference much more sophisticated than usual. In practice, presidential convoys are beginning to look less like simple armored columns and more to command centers capable of operating in environments saturated with drones, electronic signals and autonomous threats. Not only that. Analysts recalled that China also used Hongqi vehicles, a brand very historically linked to Chinese political power, reinforces another important idea: Beijing wants to demonstrate that it can develop this type of strategic capabilities with its own national platforms. The new competition between powers. For a long time, the rivalry between China and the United States was measured with aircraft carriers, stealth fighters or hypersonic missiles. Now it’s starting to appear another competition quieter: who masters electronic and anti-drone protection in real scenarios. The recent wars have shown that nearby airspace has become extremely dangerous even far from the front. This requires protecting infrastructure, convoys and political leaders in completely new ways. In this context, a jamming system can be as important as traditional shielding. Beijing’s SUVs reflect precisely this change in mentality. Deliberately ambiguous message. Of course also, perhaps the most important thing is that no one really knows what those vehicles were transporting. And that uncertainty is probably part of the message. In today’s technological competition, projecting unknown capabilities is also a form of deterrence. The huge Hongqi roofs they seem designed to provoke questions rather than offer answers. Be that as it may, his appearance on a high-level presidential visit leaves a clear conclusion: while much of the world continues to look at Taiwan, Ukraine or Iran, China seems determined to teach discreetly something else. That the next great military revolution could not be in large visible platforms, but in mobile, discreet electronic systems prepared for a war dominated by drones. Now that Russia is about to fall in Beijing, it will be time to see if they show those SUVs again. Image | x In Xataka | Something is happening over the skies of Chile: the US and China are fighting their particular “cold war” in silence In Xataka | The US’s problem in the AI ​​and humanoid race is not China: it is all of Asia and it is greatly disadvantaged

We believed that imagination was exclusive to humans. Kanzi, the bonobo who drinks “invisible coffee”, has just proven the opposite

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For decades, cognitive science has drawn a firm red line between us and the rest of the animals that is the imagination. Although animals can use tools and even solve complex problems, the ability to disconnect from immediate reality and imagine a scenario that does not exist was considered something exclusive to humans. Until Kanzi arrived. Kanzi. A bonobo that is world famous for its mastery of lexigrams to communicate and that has now starred a published study this week in the magazine Science that could rewrite the books of evolution. And it is no wonder, since Kanzi not only knows how to order food, but also knows how to pretend to eat it when it’s not there yet, and being completely aware of what it does. The tea party. The study published earlier this month presents the strongest evidence to date for the representation of pretend objects in a great ape. And for a human Pretend you are drinking coffee by imagining you have a cup in your hand It is something very simple to do. But until now in apes it was something unthinkable. But to prove us wrong about our exclusive quality, the studio designed an experiment where they sat Kanzi down and interacted with empty objects. Specifically, they pretended to pour juice from an empty bottle into a juice or eat “grapes” that did not really exist. But the best thing is that it was not a simple imitation, but Kanzi followed the game with astonishing precision as if he really imagined it. The juice trick. The objective here was to rule out that Kanzi was simply copying movements without understanding the basic concept, and to do this the team designed three tests. The first of them began with the researcher pretending pouring juice into one of several empty glasses. Kanzi was then asked to interact with them by picking one up. In this case, in 68% of the 50 tests, Kanzi chose the glass that “contained” the imaginary juice, ignoring the other identical but “empty” glasses. Fact versus fiction. This is where the crucial point of the investigation is, since if Kanzi were confused, he would treat real and imaginary juice the same. This was not the case, since when given a choice, Kanzi preferred the real object in 78% of the cases. Something that may seem insignificant, but that shows that it maintains two simultaneous mental representations: the physical reality of the empty glass, and the fake reality where we play that the glass has juice. The same thing happened when imaginary grapes were used instead of juice, where Kanzi maintained a 69% success rate in identifying the location of the pretend food. Decoupling reality. The technical term being discussed here is decoupled secondary representation, which is the brain’s ability to hold an image of the world that contradicts direct sensory information. That is, what is being seen or heard. Until now, it was debated whether this ability emerged with modern human language, but Kanzi’s results suggest that this “spark” of imagination was already present in the common ancestor we share with bonobos and chimpanzees. between 6 and 9 million years ago. This is something that also changes our understanding of childhood play, since when a two-year-old takes a banana and pretends it is a telephone, he is exercising a cognitive muscle that evolution has been refining long before telephones or cultivated bananas existed. Exception or rule. It must be taken into account that these experiments have not been done with just any bonobo, but rather an “enculturated” ape since it has spent its life surrounded by humans and trained in the use of lexigramsmaking it have extraordinary capabilities. This gives rise to some critics, such as comparative psychologist Daniel Povinelli, who usually argue that these results could be the result of intensive training that “humanizes” the ape’s mind, rather than a natural capacity in the wild. Although it is something that the investigation tries to counteract with rigorous controls to ensure that Kanzi was not responding to human clues. Images | Will Rust In Xataka | Humans are evolving live on the Tibetan plateau. And understanding what happens there will be essential in space

If you have the feeling that everything is more expensive than ever, it is not your imagination: it is called “Zillow effect”

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Digital platforms promised to make everything easier and cheaper. Actually, they have created the opposite phenomenon: The “Zillow Effect” is taking practically everything What we play online, whether digital or not. Why is it important. When any transaction is digitized, the demand is triggered because it eliminates friction, but the supply remains constant. The result is usually the same: prices go up and competition intensifies for buyers. The panoramic. The effect began in the real estate sector with Zillow in the United States, A real estate platform born in 2006 which allowed anyone to consult the value of their home. Now it extends to university candidates, employment searches, appointment applications, concert tickets, vacation destinations and even second -hand markets. If you can buy it with a click, it is probably more expensive than before. In detail. The mechanism is simple: Before, requesting place at a university required physical effort. Get forms, send them by postal mail, go to pay fees. Now, with a button you can send your application to twenty universities. Result: the best receive many more requests, they can be more selective and the competition to access goes up to the same pace that their access barriers are lowered to the application. The same happens in the labor market: For candidates, there is a paradox: getting a job becomes more complicated. The contrast. There are two large categories of products here: Products with elastic offer. They are the ones that can be manufactured in greater quantities. Clothing, processed food, smartphones. They have been cheaper. Products with limited offer, or by regulation or by their own nature. Housing in good areas, places of universities, more desirable jobs, very attractive sexual couples. They have fisher, financially or symbolically. Between the lines. Great technology benefit from this problem, so they have no incentive to solve this problem. More demand is equivalent to more data, more engagementmore commissions. The case that gives name to this effect has a perfect example: Zillow earned money both if the houses were sold as if notbecause he charged for teaching them. AND Your platform fired your visibilitywith the aforementioned consequence: same supply, greater demand … upward prices. The threat. The Zillow effect has as first victims local and imperfect markets where opportunities could be found before. There are no longer the secret restaurants, virgin and quiet holiday destinations, or jobs that only a few knew. Google Maps, LinkedIn, Instagram or YouTube have democratized knowledge, but have also concentrated demand. An example: Instagram and ‘Tourism of Likes‘. And now what. A possible solution would increase the offer where possible, such as building more housing or creating more university places. Another would artificially limit digital demand. But there are not too many incentives for it. The digital world has connected us in this century, but it has also put us to compete against many more people for the same limited resources. And there is only a great winner: the platforms. In Xataka | 34 futuristic predictions made in the past: erroneous, successful and crazy Outstanding image | Xataka

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