prices

The real estate market has started 2026 with a strange ‘photo’ that, a priori, seems to contradict the most basic laws of the market: sales fallbut prices go up. Or what is the same, thousands of fewer operations are closed in notary offices than a year ago without this apparent cooling in demand being passed on to prices, which continue to grow at the same time. double digit after saying goodbye to last year with historical data. The question in view of this duo trend is evident: What is happening? And above all, what can we expect now? Fewer homes sold. Although winter is not the time of year more dynamic For the real estate sector, the first quarter of 2026 has left a curious image: despite how tense the market is and that homes continue to be created at much more speed of which new homes are built, in Spain there are fewer houses changing hands. The purchase and sale operations chained three months downward during the start of 2026, which explains why the INE registered a 2.6% decline in the first quarter. The number: 4,713. To be precise, the INE registered 61,295 transactions of homes throughout March, 2.2% less than during the same month in 2025. If we talk about new constructions, the decline was even more pronounced: 10.2% (5.3%, if we talk about the entire quarter). In general, the aggregate for the year (January-March) is 178,473 purchases, 4,713 less than in the equivalent period of 2025. The ‘photo’ of the marketOf course, it is not the same throughout the territory. There were eight regions in which March closed with more transactions than last year, with Castilla-La Mancha in the lead; but in eight others (including some of the most populated) the trend was the opposite. In Madrid the INE recorded 2.5% fewer purchases and sales, in Catalonia the decline was 3.5% and in Andalusia 6.5%. The largest falls were recorded in the Basque Country (-11.6%) and Cantabria (-15.4%). The INE is not the only one to detect the setback. In March, the Notarial Council also registered a 4.7% puncture in transactions, more pronounced in the case of apartments. And the prices? They point in the opposite direction. He latest newsletter from the Ministry of Housing on appraisals shows that, in general, free housing became more expensive during the first quarter of the year until the residential square meter (m2) stood at 2,315.7 euros. For reference, it is 3.8% more than the previous quarter and 13.9% above what was paid a year before. In new housing, less than five years old, the increase compared to 2025 was 12.8% and in used housing (more than five years old) 13.8%. Once again, the trend was also felt in the offices of notaries. In it same statement in which it notes a general drop of 4.7% in sales in March, the sector reports a 7% rise in the cost of m2. Its balance sheet shows this apparent dissonance even more clearly: apartment transactions fell by 5.8% compared to March 2025, while prices rose by 9.7% to reach €2,332/m2; In the case of single-family homes, operations contracted by 1.1% while the cost rose by 2.2%. Year (1st quarter) Free housing (€/m2) less than five years More than five years 2020 1,640.4 1,891.5 1,632.5 2021 1,625.4 1,879.3 1,617.5 2022 1,734.0 1,980.9 1,726.7 2023 1,788.4 2,112.1 1,778.1 2024 1,865.8 2,199.3 1,855.8 2025 2,033.4 2,357.3 2,024.1 2026 2,315.7 2,685.2 2,303.8 But… Why? The first thing is to take perspective. The market may be stepping on the brakes with respect to 2025, but it continues to move at high levels if we analyze what the sector has managed since the setback that followed the brick crisis of 2008. That is, the 61,295 transactions in March may be less than those of 2025, but they are still well above the 44,664 of 2024. In fact, a year ago we were at record values that have not been seen since 2007. It is an important nuance because it shows that the drop in sales in the first quarter of 2026, as much as it may attract attention, seems to point more to a gradual slowdown than a sudden turn or change in cycle. The market gives signs, true, but they come after 2025 that closed with more than 700,000 salesthe highest figure in almost 20 years, since the bursting of the brick bubble. He last balance from the INE also shows that purchases do not suffer throughout the territory. In fact, there are regions, such as Castilla-La Mancha, Navarra, La Rioja or the Valencian Community, Galicia or Asturias, where they have grown. And the prices? Not everything is uphill. There are those who also appreciate some restraint. A recent study by Idealista shows, for example, that in the first quarter 14% of homes for sale they had to lower their price. During the same period in 2025 that percentage was 11%. Other reports specify that, beyond the general ‘photo’ provided by the Ministry of Housing, there are cities (including some capitals) in which prices have moderated. something moves. The above helps to put things into perspective, but it does not mean that the residential market is not changing. confirms it in theEconomist José García Montalvo, expert at the Pompeu Fabra University: “The slowdown in sales is one more example of a trend that is corroborated by the increase in sales time, the growing disparity between the prices that sellers want to receive and the growing limitations of buyers due to the difficulty of obtaining credits of the necessary amount for homes whose price has grown rapidly.” Ángel Talavera, from Oxford Economics, launches another reflection in elDiario: “When prices begin to rise uncoupled from rising incomes, it is likely that purchases will slow down.” The truth is that the cost of housing itself partly explains the slowdown in sales. Rentals, for example, they continue to get more expensive. And while this makes the purchase more attractive, it also … Read more