lifeline

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused panic in Asia and set off all the alarms in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). Faced with this global shortage, the Spanish system has done its homework. According to Agency EFEour country’s refineries have made their operations more flexible to maximize the production of petroleum derivatives, backed by a supply of crude oil that, for now, remains secure. Gonzalo Escribano, principal researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute, explains in statements to EFE that Spain has “specialized and better adapted refineries” than most of its neighbors. The contrast is blatant: Italy or Germany made the strategic mistake of closing 20% ​​of their refining capacity in recent years, outsourcing production to the Persian Gulf or to chinese refineries. Today, that decision is taking a historic toll on them. The real crisis is in the derivatives. It is easy to look out the window and think that the energy apocalypse has not arrived because there is still fuel at the gas stations. But it is a logistical mirage, maritime supply lines they move at the speed of a bicycle by the sheer inertia of the gigantic supertankers (VLCC) that were already sailing before the closure. The jam of more than 800 ships in the Gulf has already erased hundreds of millions of barrels from the market, and the real problem facing the world is not the lack of crude oil, but of already processed products. The first sector to suffocate has been aviation, which acts like the canary in the mine. global airlines They are canceling thousands of flights in the face of kerosene that has soared above 170 euros per barrel. At this point, the Spanish Fuel Industry Association (ACIE) corroborates EFE that the current bottleneck is in distillates such as diesel and kerosene. The Spanish lifeguard. By keeping its refineries at maximum performance, our country not only covers its demand, but also establishes itself as a logistics node capable of helping its neighbors. The contrast is abysmal: while the United Kingdom is forced to import 80% of the kerosene that its planes burn, Spain is capable of producing 80% of what it consumes. This not only protects the internal market from shortages, but also positions the peninsula to export the surplus to a thirsty Europe. In a scenario where the barrel maintains a “war premium” that inflates prices, having the final product already processed makes the Spanish plants the great emergency supplier. Those countries that decided to outsource their production of derivatives to Asia today depend on Spanish capacity so that their carriers and airlines do not remain grounded. The strategic “bunker”: the ace up CORES’ sleeve. How is it possible for Spain to hold its own if it imports practically 100% of the crude oil it consumes? The answer lies in our emergency reserves. Spain counts with an autonomy of about 105 dayswell above the 92 required by international law, managed through a mixed system between the industry and the Strategic Reserves Corporation (CORES). But the real “trick” of this bunker is not the quantity, but the quality: more than half (54.4%) of CORES’ reserves are already refined diesel fuel. Even if Saudi Arabia manages to bypass the Hormuz blockade by sending crude oil through its pipelines to the Red Sea, Europe has a serious problem if it does not have enough factories to distill it. By having the refining duties done in advance, the Spanish tanks buy the country more than three months of logistical peace to prevent the trucks from stopping. There is another safe passage: the “green shield” exception. Added to this fossil shielding is the electrical part, a front where Spain plays with a structural advantage. More than 60% of our generation mix It is already renewable, supported by massive solar and wind deployment and a solid hydraulic cushion. In the European electricity system—where the most expensive technology, usually gas, dictates the final price of all electricity—this green park acts as a retaining wall. During the central hours of the day, the massive injection of clean energy manages to sink wholesale market prices, reaching zero or even negative values. This protects us from the brutal gas increases that are suffocating bills in Germany or Italy. In practice, it allows the national industry to maintain a vital respite and a huge competitive advantage during sunny hours, cushioning an economic blow that is devastating manufacturers in the rest of the continent. A life preserver that floats, but is not immune. Spain has become a fortunate energy island, but not by chance. It is the result of not having succumbed to the temptation to dismantle its hydrocarbon infrastructure while, in parallel, investing massively in the transition towards sun and wind. However, it would be a mistake to become complacent. The life jacket floats, but the sea is rougher than ever. Fatih Birol, director of the IEA, has warned that this crisis exceeds those of 1973, 1979 and 2022 combined. And our country is not without cracks: we still lack massive batteries to store our renewable energy (which makes us vulnerable to gas every time it gets dark) and our external dependence on crude oil remains almost absolute. We have gained precious time, but the hyper-connected economy of the 21st century reminds us that when the world slows down, no one is completely unscathed. Image | Gregorio Puga Bailón Xataka | First it was the automotive industry, now Europe is going to lose another of its star industries to China