Pistachios

The world is preparing to harvest 36% fewer pistachios. This is great news for Spanish farmers

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2025 is not being an easy year for the pistachio. TO the effects of the Iran war, the closure of Hormuz and the swings The price of the fruit now adds a more than likely puncture in the global harvest. This is what at least the main producer organization, the INC, expects, which foresees a drop of 36% in the amount of fruit harvested worldwide. Although it’s not strange that crops rise and fall, conditioned by the climate or the cycles of the trees, the sector’s estimate is interesting for another reason: it confirms that Spain is reinforcing assumption. And everything indicates that it will gain ground this campaign. What has happened? That the International Nuts and Dehydrated Fruits Council (INC) has recognized that the 2026/2027 campaign does not look particularly good for pistachio. At least if we talk about production. Although the sector expects an increase in the cultivation of walnuts, hazelnuts or raisins, in the case of pistachios it anticipates a ‘puncture’ of 36% on a global scale. Translated into tons, that means that production would go from 1.1 million harvested during the 2025/2026 campaign to 701,050 t in the 2026/2027 campaign. Country Campaign 2025/2026 (tons) Campaign 2026/2027 (tons) USA 722,670 350,000 Türkiye 114,600 156,400 Iran 225,000 130,000 Syria 13,350 35,000 Spain 9,500 11,500 Greece 6,500 8,500 Australia 3,000 5,500 Afghanistan 2,600 2,700 Italy 4,700 1,000 China 320 450 World production 1,101,740 701,050 What is the reason? Although a drop of 36% may seem alarming, the data should be handled with caution. Pistachio cultivation is conditioned by the vecería, which means that there are campaigns in which the trees are loaded with fruit and others in which the harvests are much scarcer. It is one of the handicaps with which the sector plays. Hence there are voices, like that of Juan Gallegofrom Ibero Pistacho, who ensure that a drop of 36% “is within the norm.” Nor is it strange that part of the harvests are saved from one year to the next precisely to compensate for the ‘puncture’ of the years highly marked by the harvest. Does only that factor influence? No. The INC data, advanced by the EFE agency, allow us to focus more and observe the great differences that exist between producing countries, each conditioned by its own challenges. For example, in California, the world capital For pistachio, a 52% drop in the harvest is expected due to flowering problems. The ‘photo’ is not good in Iran either, which is suffering the consequences of the high temperatures of the previous campaign and expects its production to be reduced by another 42%. And what happens in Spain? Here the panorama is somewhat different. Although our production is light years away Compared to the US or Türkiye, the INC estimates that in Spain the 2026/2027 campaign will close with 21% more fruit harvested. In practice, this would mean going from 9,500 tons in the 2025/2026 financial year to 11,500 in the 2026/2027 campaign. The data is interesting because it not only consolidates Spain as the fifth world producer, it also allows it to dream of closing the gap on the podium. The forecast of the INC shows a decline in crops in the US and Iran, the first and third producers on a global scale. And although a priori Türkiye (the second supplier) will see its harvest increase by 36%, it remains to be seen if the strong storm that suffered in May has damaged the trees and will reduce the harvest. How is that possible? That the Spanish crop grows while it declines in other countries with large pistachio plantations, such as the US, Türkiye or Iran, is actually little surprising. Spanish farmers They have been increasing for years the number of hectares dedicated to this crop, especially in Castile-La Manchawhich concentrates a large part of the national production and 77% of the surface. The growth of the harvest in Spain during the next campaign (2026/2027) is only a reflection of that bet. The data from the Ministry of Agriculture show that the planted area in Spain has skyrocketed in recent years to exceed 85,800 hectares in the 2024/2025 campaign and that production has grown by more than 70% in just a few years. Looking ahead to the 2026/2027 season, the INC expects a harvest of 11,500 tons. Not all sources agree on this information (in the sector there are those raises it to 16,000 t), but in any case the background photo is always the same: Spanish production is increasing. What to expect now? The million dollar question. For now, and beyond the short-term fall in harvests due to the rainy season, both the US and Iran they hope to increase its production thanks to the increase in plantations. Specifically, California hopes to boost its average capacity by 40% in the coming campaigns and Iran and Türkiye are already considering approaching 300,000 tons in the medium term. Regarding the price of the fruit and whether or not prices will be altered by the 36% drop in production, there are different opinions in the sector. The Italian analysis company Areté warns of a market with “strong tensions on supply and prices” given that the demand for pistachios has been growing for years. Others, like Gallego, acknowledge that “there may be a small increase in cents,” but clarifies: “All of us who are in this sector are interested in the product remaining stable and being consumed.” Not only the generosity of the crops comes into play. The price is also affected by other factorssuch as instability in Iran, the closure of Hormuz or the influence of war on the cost of inputs such as fuel. Images | Brenan Greene (Unsplash), Brad Spry (Flickr) and USDA In Xataka | Fruit seems like the perfect summer dinner. The problem is that it is not as good an idea as it seems.

The world became obsessed with pistachios because of Dubai chocolate. Now the war has turned it into a trap

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The last few years have been anything but quiet for the pistachio industry. First ‘Dubai chocolate’ fever Its demand skyrocketed, straining supply chains and skyrocketing prices. Now the Iran conflict has struck a blow to its market, causing an earthquake whose consequences are still difficult to predict. For now there are already analysts warning that the fruit is beginning to be priced at highs that have not been seen for almost a decade. The big question is… And now what? What has happened? That the pistachio market is showing signs that it does not remain immune to the Middle East conflict, something that is otherwise expected if we take into account that Iran is one of the large world producers of this dried fruit. The alarm signal was raised by Bloomberg, which on Monday warned that the conflict is already affecting the price of pistachios in the markets. Their analysis is based on measurements from Expana Markets, a British firm specialized in the agri-food sector, which assures that in March the pound of pistachios reached $4.57the highest value since May 2018. Is it important? Yes. The pistachio market is very broad, it moves billions and it is supplied from more suppliers than Iran, so Expana’s data should be taken as a clue. Even so, they are interesting for their context. The pistachio had already experienced a price increase in recent years, driven by its popularization in the the drinks and food in general and especially for the enormous success of Dubai chocolate, a sweet made with cocoa and pistachios. After TikTok was filled with viral videos about its tablets, the price of grain skyrocketed: Bloomberg estimates that between the end of 2023 and 2025, Expana’s reference value for the US rose 30%. Are there more indicators? Yes. In Spain we have the platform data Pistachio Prowhich shows the increase in prices that the different varieties of grain have experienced in recent years in the Lonja de Albacete. A few months ago, in fact, the website informed that the price of Kerman-type grain had reached a “historical record” in both conventional and organic grains. Globally, a year ago Financial Times I already warned that Dubai chocolate was straining global pistachio supplies, driving up prices. Does the war in Iran have that much influence now? Yes. And for several reasons. The main one is that Iran does not occupy just any place on the world pistachio map. Although his weight is nowhere near what it was a few decades ago, when he hoarded good part of global production, the Islamic Republic continues to be the second largest breadwinner on the planet, only behind the United States. USDA estimates in fact indicated that during the 2025/2026 season its production would be around 200,000 metric tons, 18% of world production. They are 80,000 tons more than the third country by volume, Türkiye, and 160,000 tons more than the contribution of the entire EU. Some analysts it’s been several weeks warning that Iranian crops may be affected by the impact of the war on energy and water supplies for irrigation, in addition to problems with infrastructure. This is without, of course, taking into account the blow that the conflict has dealt to maritime traffic and the entire logistics chain. Some voices even have slipped in which the Iranian pistachio industry has been directly punished by the bombings. Are there more factors? The answer is once again affirmative. The war has tightened the rope, but the reality is that the pistachio trade was not going through its best moment in Iran. The industry has not been immune to the sanctions and geopolitical tensions that preceded the attack launched by the US and Israel on February 28. Neither, remember Bloombergto the repression with which Tehran responded to the protests internal. Even the harvest would have been lower than expected. All these factors also impact the supply of the fruit. “Pistachios are undoubtedly sensitive to disruptions in the Middle East, given the region’s role as a producer, transit hub and destination,” warns Nick Moss of Expana Markets. Tehran is also a key supplier of pistachio to the gigantic Indian market, which has now seen its supply chains affected, like other nations. “The war has led shipping companies to cancel all new reservations from March 2 for shipments destined for the Middle East,” duck Gyana Ranjan Das, from Grown Point. Does it only affect Iran? At all. If the war in Ukraine in 2022 and that in Iran now demonstrated anything, it is that the effect of bombs and drones is still felt in the countries where the battles are fought, but the disruptions they generate extend to markets and economies around the world. Iranian farmers are not the only ones affected by the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz is key to global shipping oil and ureaso its blockage directly affects the supply (and therefore the costs) of two essential inputs for farmers: fuel and fertilizer. Although there are those who believe that US producers will be the big beneficiaries, in recent weeks media such as Associated Press (AP) or Los Angeles Times They have interviewed California farmers who acknowledge that they have also been harmed by the conflict. one of them assured have merchandise worth five million dollars blocked on ships, fruits that under normal conditions would have already arrived in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. An expectant market. Surely that is the adjective that best defines the current state of the world pistachio market. Expectant. And not only because the second largest producer on the planet is at the center of a conflict that is currently hanging on a very delicate truce. After years marked by increased demand, the sector faces a potential increase in costs, a rise in prices, a decrease in supply and a strangulation of trade. “Even for buyers who do not normally source directly or indirectly from Iran, these supply restrictions could lead to increased competition for stock available elsewhere,” … Read more

Behind oil, the US had a much more mundane reason for attacking Iran: pistachios

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Since the United States and Israel struck Iran on February 28, unleashing a war that has lasted more than a month and now hangs on a fragile truce, the world has been attentive to the ups and downs in the price of oil and the traffic of goods such as urea either helium. Logical Your flow has been greatly damaged by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and sectors as important as transportation, agriculture or the technology industry depend on them. There is, however, another commodity that has grabbed much fewer headlines and is equally affected (perhaps even more so) by the war: the pistachio. green gold. No market remains immune to the passage of time, but few have changed as much over the last half century as that of pistachio. If we go back to the 60s, even the 70s, talking about the world pistachio market was talk basically about Iran. The country dominated global trade, placing itself far above from rivals such as the United States or Türkiye. Today the photo is different. Has it changed that much? It comes with looking at the graph above. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), during the 2025/2026 season the US will strengthen its global leadership with 712,700 tons metric, 65% of total production. Iran takes 18% of the pie, followed not so far by Türkiye (11%). These are not current figures, but the new reality. Although the pistachio industry is a business marked by cyclical patterns of its production, its global photo has hardly changed in the last decade: the USA dominates, followed by Iran and Türkiye, which have sometimes reached exchange the second and third position. At the distancefollowed by Syria and the EU, Spain included. It’s the market… and politics. That Iran has lost its global leadership in favor of the United States is hardly a coincidence. Nor is it explained only by reasons of production or pure economics. As I remembered recently analyst Justin Fox in Bloomberg, in reality the US authorities did not begin to bet on pistachio production in California until the middle of the last century. The plantations as such did not arrive until the late 1960s and the first commercial harvest with a certain scope was harvested in 1976. However, the future of the world pistachio market has been influenced by both the geostrategic decisions made in Washington and the work of pistachio farmers in the San Joaquin Valleyin the state of California. Reviewing history. At the end of the 70s, after the overthrow of the Shah and the takeover of the embassy American in Iran, Washington imposed a trade embargo on the country that cleared the way for Californian farmers eager to dominate the national market. The trade penalty was lifted in 1981, but just a few years later the US gave another boost to its industry by applying a tariff of 241% to raw Iranian pistachios in shell. Since then the scenario has become more complicated, but its result is evident: California has become a heavyweight in global production. And with it the US, which surpassed Iran for the first time in the 2004 campaign and has been more than doubling its annual harvest since 2020. “What’s behind that takeoff?” That’s the question Justin Fox asks himself in your analysisin which he slips several ideas: this boom is partly explained by changes in water policies that led American farmers to bet on almonds and pistachios, the advantages of their production during droughts and the boost of Stewart and Lynda Resnickowners of Wonderful Company, a firm that brings together between 15 and 20% of California pistachios and found the key to popularizing the product. And for proof, a button: since the middle of the last decade, per capita consumption in the country has tripled. Beyond the geostrategic value of Iran, its weight in the oil industry or the turbulent relationship with Israel, there are those who have seen the pistachio market as one of the factors that have conditioned the relationship between Washington and Tehran over recent decades. “Hostile relations with Iran seem to have benefited California producers,” says Fox, who recalls that there is even a documentary, ‘Pistachio Wars’which “even hints that pistachio interests are partly responsible for that hostility.” Is it that important? It is estimated that the ‘vede gold’ was the 17th export in terms of value of the US agricultural industry during fiscal year 2025. And it is not unreasonable to think that this position will improve. Both for the growing popularity of pistachio, driven in recent years by the fever of ‘Dubai chocolate’as well as the commitment of US farmers. The New York Times esteem that pistachio orchards have exploded in surface area in the last quarter of a century: from around 100,000 acres in California in 2001, they have grown to more than 600,000. And the war came. At this point the question is obvious… How is the war in Iran affecting the world pistachio market? There are those who believe that the American industry will be one of the best stops. “This war will limit what Iran can make and export to customers in Europe and China,” explains to TNYT Adam Orandi, responsible for a pistachio tree extension in San Joaquín. It is not only about a possible loss of strength of the Islamic Republic in the market, but about the behavior of prices. Orandi is not the only one who has pointed in that direction. In recent weeks other voices have speculated about the benefits that California companies could obtain, especially considering the good estimates of harvest that they handle in the US. Click on the image to go to the tweet. Has the war affected that much? Yes. A few weeks ago Times of India slid and to some of the threats that the war represents for the Iranian pistachio trade: logistical paralysis (conditioned by disturbances in maritime routes), the increase in premiums charged by insurance companies, power … Read more

Pistachio’s profitability comes after years and the sun pays from the first lease contract

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In Carmona (Seville), up to 28 solar projects advance on land that, until recently, were sown with cereal, pipes or chickpeas. The boom of photovoltaic in this municipality is not only attracting energy investment, but also transforming the rural landscape and the local economy. This was reported by the farmer José Portillo In a report of the Research Team Program. The most striking of his case is the economic jump: for each hectare of dry land he obtained just about 100 euros a year; Now, leased to a solar plant, it brings 1,900 euros. This is not an isolated case. With contracts from 20 to 30 years and stable profitability, More and more farmers wonder If the future of the field goes to continue cultivating or capturing the sun. And the answer is that it is within the usual: According to the Eave installation companyIn 2024 the average rental price for photovoltaic projects ranged between 1,000 and 2,000 euros per hectare. Of course, not any farm is suitable: soils are needed for energy use, overcome environmental and hydraulic procedures and, above all, have a point of connection to the electricity grid with sufficient capacity. From the grain to the kilowatt. Official numbers help contextualize the dilemma. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, In your Agricultural Income 2024 – 2nd estimate (March 2025)Spanish agricultural income grew by 11.2 % in 2024, driven by cereal recovery (+38.9 %), The olive oil rebound (+34.3 %) and the decrease in feed costs (−19.5 %) and fertilizers (−23.3 %). But that average bonanza is not distributed the same on all plots. The National Agrarian Accounting Network (Recan) shows that in extensive crops of drying the benefits are usually very small, while In intensive accounts change. The olive grove can generate between 3,000 and 4,000 euros per hectare per year; The Almendro in Seto recovers the investment in about five years, and the pistachio reaches yields of 5,000 to 8,000 euros per hectare in full maturity. In short, everything depends on what the farm is dedicated. In cereal dryland, the solar lease far multiplies the usual benefits. In more technified crops, figures can approach or even exceed the profitability of photovoltaic, although at the expense of assuming higher investments, agronomic risks and price volatility. The sun, in any case, has become an economic competitor of the traditional field. A third way: self -consumption. Not everything goes for renting the ground. Another option is that it is the farmer himself who installs panels to reduce their energy costs. According to the Renewable APPA reportSpain already has more than 8,585 MW of self -consumption, 73 % of them in industrial projects, which covered 3.7 % of national demand. Savings is not less: APPA and EDP Energy They estimate that each KW installed is € 157 less per year in homes and € 101 in industries. Field translated: an irrigation exploitation with a 100 kW installation could save around 10,000 euros per year in electricity, more if it adds batteries and adapts consumption to sun hours. An intermediate formula. Between white and black the agrovoltaic arises: producing electricity while growing. Researchers from the University of Córdoba (2024) They have demonstrated that in olive groves in hedge it is viable to install high plates that optimize radiation for both trees and solar modules, without losing olives. International examples also point in that direction: Italian wineries that They have improved the quality of wine Under the shadow of panels or farms in Australia where even the wool of the sheep It was of higher quality. Looking for the combination. The future of the Spanish field may not consist in choosing between sun or land, but in combining them. In the agrarian Spain of 2025, one hectare is no longer measured only in kilos of cereal or liters of oil, but also in kilowatts. With an agricultural income that rebounds thanks to cereal and olive grove, the photovoltaic rent offers many farmers a stable income difficult to match in low profitability areas. Between panels, olive groves and batteries, the future is probably mixed – and will depend, as always, on the ground, the sun and of the network. Image | Unspash Xataka | Spain believed to be very clear about the last year in which nuclear power plants would operate in Spain. Now not so much

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