The last few years have been anything but quiet for the pistachio industry. First ‘Dubai chocolate’ fever Its demand skyrocketed, straining supply chains and skyrocketing prices. Now the Iran conflict has struck a blow to its market, causing an earthquake whose consequences are still difficult to predict. For now there are already analysts warning that the fruit is beginning to be priced at highs that have not been seen for almost a decade.
The big question is… And now what?
What has happened? That the pistachio market is showing signs that it does not remain immune to the Middle East conflict, something that is otherwise expected if we take into account that Iran is one of the large world producers of this dried fruit. The alarm signal was raised by Bloomberg, which on Monday warned that the conflict is already affecting the price of pistachios in the markets.
Their analysis is based on measurements from Expana Markets, a British firm specialized in the agri-food sector, which assures that in March the pound of pistachios reached $4.57the highest value since May 2018.
Is it important? Yes. The pistachio market is very broad, it moves billions and it is supplied from more suppliers than Iran, so Expana’s data should be taken as a clue. Even so, they are interesting for their context.
The pistachio had already experienced a price increase in recent years, driven by its popularization in the the drinks and food in general and especially for the enormous success of Dubai chocolate, a sweet made with cocoa and pistachios. After TikTok was filled with viral videos about its tablets, the price of grain skyrocketed: Bloomberg estimates that between the end of 2023 and 2025, Expana’s reference value for the US rose 30%.
Are there more indicators? Yes. In Spain we have the platform data Pistachio Prowhich shows the increase in prices that the different varieties of grain have experienced in recent years in the Lonja de Albacete. A few months ago, in fact, the website informed that the price of Kerman-type grain had reached a “historical record” in both conventional and organic grains.
Globally, a year ago Financial Times I already warned that Dubai chocolate was straining global pistachio supplies, driving up prices.
Does the war in Iran have that much influence now? Yes. And for several reasons. The main one is that Iran does not occupy just any place on the world pistachio map. Although his weight is nowhere near what it was a few decades ago, when he hoarded good part of global production, the Islamic Republic continues to be the second largest breadwinner on the planet, only behind the United States.
USDA estimates in fact indicated that during the 2025/2026 season its production would be around 200,000 metric tons, 18% of world production. They are 80,000 tons more than the third country by volume, Türkiye, and 160,000 tons more than the contribution of the entire EU.
Some analysts it’s been several weeks warning that Iranian crops may be affected by the impact of the war on energy and water supplies for irrigation, in addition to problems with infrastructure. This is without, of course, taking into account the blow that the conflict has dealt to maritime traffic and the entire logistics chain. Some voices even have slipped in which the Iranian pistachio industry has been directly punished by the bombings.
Are there more factors? The answer is once again affirmative. The war has tightened the rope, but the reality is that the pistachio trade was not going through its best moment in Iran. The industry has not been immune to the sanctions and geopolitical tensions that preceded the attack launched by the US and Israel on February 28. Neither, remember Bloombergto the repression with which Tehran responded to the protests internal. Even the harvest would have been lower than expected. All these factors also impact the supply of the fruit.
“Pistachios are undoubtedly sensitive to disruptions in the Middle East, given the region’s role as a producer, transit hub and destination,” warns Nick Moss of Expana Markets. Tehran is also a key supplier of pistachio to the gigantic Indian market, which has now seen its supply chains affected, like other nations. “The war has led shipping companies to cancel all new reservations from March 2 for shipments destined for the Middle East,” duck Gyana Ranjan Das, from Grown Point.
Does it only affect Iran? At all. If the war in Ukraine in 2022 and that in Iran now demonstrated anything, it is that the effect of bombs and drones is still felt in the countries where the battles are fought, but the disruptions they generate extend to markets and economies around the world.
Iranian farmers are not the only ones affected by the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz is key to global shipping oil and ureaso its blockage directly affects the supply (and therefore the costs) of two essential inputs for farmers: fuel and fertilizer.
Although there are those who believe that US producers will be the big beneficiaries, in recent weeks media such as Associated Press (AP) or Los Angeles Times They have interviewed California farmers who acknowledge that they have also been harmed by the conflict. one of them assured have merchandise worth five million dollars blocked on ships, fruits that under normal conditions would have already arrived in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
An expectant market. Surely that is the adjective that best defines the current state of the world pistachio market. Expectant. And not only because the second largest producer on the planet is at the center of a conflict that is currently hanging on a very delicate truce. After years marked by increased demand, the sector faces a potential increase in costs, a rise in prices, a decrease in supply and a strangulation of trade.
“Even for buyers who do not normally source directly or indirectly from Iran, these supply restrictions could lead to increased competition for stock available elsewhere,” Moss points out..
It is an especially interesting warning for Spain (especially Ciudad Real), which in recent years has seen how more and more farmers They were betting on this crop. In summer, in fact, Cooperativas Agro-alimentarias Castilla-La Mancha expected to harvest some 8,900 tons of fruit, which would quadruple the 2024 production and led them to talk about “the largest harvest to date.”
Images | Brenan Greene (Unsplash), Engin Akyurt (Unsplash) and USDA
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