the two pharaonic African gas pipelines that want to change the energy map

The invasion of Ukraine in 2022 dynamited the foundations of European energy security. Before the conflict, Russia supplied between 40% and 45% of the European Union’s natural gas imports, injecting more than 155 billion cubic meters annually into the continent. Faced with the urgency of disconnecting from Moscow, Europe was looking for a place to fill its reserves again and the answer was in the south. To understand the magnitude of this shift, just look at what is happening on the ground. According to The Africa Reportunder the scorching sun of southern Algeria, the energy ministers of Algeria, Nigeria and Niger officially inaugurated the works of the gigantic Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP). It is not a project on paper; the pipes are already being welded. As detailed Al-Monitorthe Algerian state company Sonatrach has begun building a critical 1,210 kilometer stretch in the Aoulef region, which will connect Nigerian gas to the immense Hassi R’Mel field, a node that already has direct arteries to Europe. A question of survival. The European Union plans to end its dependence on Russian gas at the end of 2027. The arrival of a new corridor that provides 30 billion cubic meters of gas per year is a strategic lifeline. But for the African continent, the meaning is even deeper. It is about resolving a historical paradox: being a continent rich in energy but with serious deficiencies in local electricity access. According to an investigation published in the Journal of Geo-Energy and Environmentthe rival project, the Africa-Atlantic Gas Pipeline (AAGP), could generate about $75 million annually in transit revenue for West African countries. Furthermore, these projects are designed so that a part of the gas stays in the transit countries, promoting their electrification, their industrial development and reducing the use of polluting biomass. The battle of the megaprojects. However, this energy awakening has unleashed a fierce geopolitical rivalry. As highlighted The Africa ReportAlgeria and Morocco are competing aggressively to become the exclusive “gateway” for Nigerian gas to Europe, spearheading two colossal megaprojects competing for international funding and European favor. On the table are two titans of engineering that promise to change the world map: The Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP): Led by Nigeria, Niger and Algeria. Business Insider details that it will measure 4,128 kilometers in length. It will cross the desert and it is estimated that its cost ranges between 13,000 million dollars and the 19.5 billion. With the works already started in Algeria, the Minister of Petroleum of Niger has confirmed that his country will begin to build its section of 720 kilometers at the beginning of 2027. The Africa-Atlantic Gas Pipeline (AAGP / NMGP): The Moroccan alternative is even more pharaonic. With a length of between 5,600 and 7,000 kilometers, it will border the entire Atlantic coast, crossing 13 African countries. Its estimated cost amounts to about 25 billion dollars. How to finance infrastructure of this magnitude? academic research concludes thatAfter analyzing multiple strategies, the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model is the most robust and viable path. This model makes it possible to mobilize the gigantic private capital necessary, transfer the risks of construction and operation, and at the same time ensure that local governments maintain fiscal benefits and employment development. The small print. Despite the euphoria, the obstacles are formidable. As you remember Al-Monitorthe trans-Saharan gas pipeline was conceived in the 1970s and has suffered decades of paralysis. Academic analyzes warn that the viability of the project is threatened by historical security risks in the Niger Delta, northern Niger and southern Algeria, coupled with political instability caused by recent coups in the Sahel region. Furthermore, there is an “elephant in the room”: the energy transition. Natural gas is seen as a transition fuel. So that these gas pipelines do not become stranded (obsolete) assets in the long term in the face of European climate policies, experts point out that they must be designed with operational flexibility. This includes “reverse flow” capability to redistribute energy southwards when Europe doesn’t need it, and even adapt infrastructure to transport green hydrogen in a decarbonized future. A new axis of power. The center of gravity of world energy is falling southward. Europe, cornered by geopolitics, desperately needs the stability of new suppliers; Africa, for its part, demands the investment and infrastructure it has historically been denied. The success of these thousands of kilometers of steel tubes, buried under the burning sands of the Sahara or submerged off the Atlantic coast, will decide much more than the temperature of European homes in the coming winters. The true historical challenge is not to demonstrate that the continent can turn on the northern lights, but to dare to invent a model where Africa stops exporting its wealth to import dependence. The ultimate goal is for African energy to belong to and transform, once and for all, its own people. Image | Unsplash Xataka | The first natural gas that does not depend on fossil sources is already a reality in Europe: it is manufactured in Extremadura by combining hydrogen and CO2

The Strait of Hormuz has become a death trap. The Arab Emirates’ solution is a pharaonic oil “bypass” through the desert

The new energy order is not debated in suit and tie summits, but is rising against the clock under the scorching sun of the Arabian Peninsula. Suffocated by the Third Gulf War, the United Arab Emirates has hit the table: it refuses to leave the survival of its trade routes in the hands of chance, war or its neighbors. The strategy is clear: if the strait is a minefield, they will build a rear exit. The news that has shaken the foundations of oil logistics came to light through official channels. According to a statement from the company itself ADNOC (the Emirati state oil company), His Highness Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed has chaired a key meeting in which he has ordered an urgent directive: to accelerate the construction of the new “West-East Pipeline” project. But what infrastructure are we talking about exactly? As energy analyst Javier Blas points outthe key to this movement is that the Emirates is laying out a second oil pipeline expressly designed to turn its back on the Strait of Hormuz. The date marked on the calendar is 2027. When they open the tap, this new infrastructure will double the volume of crude oil that the country takes out to the world through the port of Fujairah (in the Gulf of Oman). In practical figures, this represents a gigantic leap: they will go from the 1.5 million barrels a day that they move right now, to injecting between 3 and 3.5 million. It is not a project improvised in the last week. As analyst Bachar El-Halabi points outwork on this project began quietly in early 2024, long before the war in Iran paralyzed the region. However, the conflict has acted as the definitive “catalyst.” The war did not inspire the pipeline, but it has injected it with urgency. The logistical “antidote” As was discussed in the middle Amwaj Mediathe Iran war has starkly exhibited the tremendous vulnerability of maritime bottlenecks (chokepoints). The near-total shutdown of Hormuz has caused the worst supply disruption in history, removing 12% of the world’s oil from the market. In this context, the West-East pipeline stands as a lifeline. This Emirati infrastructure, added to the gigantic oil pipeline East-West (or Petroline) of 1,200 kilometers that Saudi Arabia has reactivated towards the Red Sea, form a true logistical “antidote.” They are escape routes that neutralize Tehran’s blackmail, allowing crude oil to go out into the world without entering the range of missiles and blockades in the Persian Gulf. They are, in the words of experts, “buying invaluable time” for the West. To understand the privilege of having this infrastructure, just look at the neighboring country: the situation in Iraq exposes the other side of the coin. Lacking alternative outlets to the sea and completely dependent on Hormuz, Iraq has been left without physical space to store its own oil. As a result, Baghdad has been forced to shut down 70% of production in its prolific southern fields and beg the Kurdistan region to let them use an old, patched-up pipeline to Turkey that barely manages to export 250,000 barrels a day. Iraq is a hostage to its own geography; The Emirates, on the other hand, are buying their freedom with steel and engineering. A free (and flooded) market by 2027 All this new logistical muscle takes on its true meaning when it intersects with another historic decision: the Emirates’ slamming of the door on OPEC+. Emirates has formally left the organizationarguing the defense of their “national interest.” After almost six decades, the country has decided that its national interests no longer fit into the cartel’s quotas. The UAE had been accumulating commercial frustration for years because OPEC forced them to limit their pumping to 3.2 million barrels per day, despite the fact that the country has invested aggressively to reach a production capacity of 5 million barrels by 2027, the same year in which its new megagas pipeline to Fujairah will be ready. But as various international media explain, this divorce is not just about money. Abu Dhabi feels betrayed. The Emirates have had to absorb much of the impact of Iranian missiles and drones alone, feeling that their Arab “brothers” and the Gulf Cooperation Council were turning their backs on them. Therefore, the consequences of this schism will be tectonic. The cartel has seen its global market share plummet to 26%. When the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the West-East pipeline operates at full capacity, the Emirates will flood the market under its own rules, leaving a lone Saudi Arabia to bear the brutal cost of trying to stabilize prices in a world of extreme volatility. The cold war for the future The Emirati order, in fact, is directly addressed to Riyadh. In the silent cold war it is waging with Saudi Arabia for regional hegemony, the Emirates refuses to be a supporting actor in the face of Prince Mohamed bin Salman’s monolithic “Vision 2030.” As explained Middle East Economythe UAE can afford to leave OPEC and endure a downward pulse in prices because its break-even Fiscal is around a comfortable $45 per barrel, compared to the much greater needs of its neighbors. Thanks to diversification, the Emirates today generates 25% of its electricity with the Barakah nuclear power plant and has immense solar parks, allowing itself to use today’s petrodollars to finance hydrogen and the technology of tomorrow. However, this apparent invulnerability has a terrifying blind spot. Military analysts warn that, in the era of hybrid warfare, a steel pipe is of little use if a $500 drone can paralyze the region. The Third Gulf War already demonstrated this fragility when a drone reached the gigantic Emirati Ruwais refinery. Added to this is the panic unleashed when pro-Iranian militias explicitly threatened vital infrastructure such as the Barakah nuclear power plant. The Emirates is building its financial and logistical freedom, yes, but it is doing so through a minefield. The new West-East pipeline is ultimately much more than a … Read more

Navigating from Madrid to Lisbon, the pharaonic real dream that gave rise to the failed Channel del Manzanares

The Manzanares river in Madrid has become one of the protagonists of recent days. March is being an extremely rainy month, so much that it has caused Solar energy ceases to grow in Spainbut has also caused the River overflow throughout the country. One of those rivers is Manzanares, which is usually a thread of water and Now it’s a torrent. But the river has not only become news for the increase in flow, but because during the works of Metro line 11 they have found a section of the real historical channel of Manzanares, an ambitious project that It was centuries on the table and that had a target target: join Madrid, Lisbon and Seville by boat. Felipe II’s dream Felipe II It is not just one of the most remembered kings in Spain: it may also be from Europe. Under his reign, The Spanish Empire reached its peak And it was a monarch interested in finance projects of several sciences. He also liked the sea, starting maritime engineering projects, stimulating the creation of large warships and the most ambitious of all: the idea of ​​making The main rivers of the peninsula were navigable. Another detail for which Felipe II is remembered is for the move of the capital of the country: he decided that Madrid would be the ideal location, so he transferred the court in full. But of course, Madrid did not have direct access to the sea and this was something important, especially for trade and those expansionist ambitionsso the project To open Madrid to the sea, he made eyes to the king. And the task fell into the hands of the Italian engineer Juan Bautista Antonelli. Nothing, something simple: Tajo, Duero, Guadalquivir and Ebro, among other rivers, would become navigable, with channels among them that would allow Madrid to have a way out of the sea and a river connection with some of the main cities of the country. For commerce, this was an extremely juicy idea between cities and between Madrid and European, Chinese, African and Indian cities. Fourth Lock of the Real Canal del Manzanares Felipe supported the project And he released funds to be carried out, but it was not going to be simple: a slope of more than 600 meters had to be saved and the necessary adjustments first to open Madrid and, later, that the 600 kilometers that separates the capital from the Atlantic coast were completely navigable. HE I would continue The route of the river and They would create 10 locks between the Toledo bridge and the Vaciamadrid jetty, many for a distance of just 20 kilometers. The capital would join with Aranjuez and, through the Tagus, it would have an exit to the Atlantic by Lisbon. A road was also projected to Seville. He did not set. Although the works are They started Among the Madrid and Alcantara Madrid nuclei, the money was not unlimited and the cocktail of technical difficulties, issues with private properties and, above all, The financing of the invincible Navycaused the money to be redistributed and the interior navigation project was saved in the drawer. He also influenced that, in 1588 Antonelli died and, in 1598, Felipe would. Madrid with double exit to the sea Later it was tried to recover, but the decisive moment came under the reign of Carlos III. Businessman Pedro Martinengo took the witness and presented In 1769 the project to recover the ambitious plan of Felipe II. The construction began in 1770 when Carlos III approved the proposal and the initial funds were in charge of Martinengo himself and private investors he had gathered. Under the direction of the businessman, the project advanced completing eight of the ten planned locks, but the costs were being tremendous and ran out of funds to continue. Martinengo had ruined, but Carlos III liked the projectso bought and thus officially became the Real Canal del Manzanares. The tenth lock Nor do we think that the monarch invested too much: he maintained what there was. Nor is it that he caught the economy at its most buoyant time and the river itself was not the most appropriate for navigation, since it needed water transvases to be able to operate correctly. Some companies were established, such as furnaces, but the channel was being underutilized. With Carlos IV, the thing didn’t improve either. Again, invested just as to maintain it, But in 1799 the disaster arrived: strong rains took part of the Gasco dam, a new construction on the Guadarraman that was the one that was taking the money. Another lock This set of misfortunes, and seeing that the Manzanares channel had been stagnant decades without contributing what was promised, caused the abandonment of the project until the arrival of a Fernando VII who tried to recover it, building the ninth and tenth lock and carrying the work until the vicinity of Vaciamadrid. But the work was not finished. Progress arrived Upon stopping, the channel was degrading, but the last nail in the coffin was the passage of time. In the time of Felipe II, the project could make sense. With Carlos III too, but already entered the 19th, things had changed a lot. The development of roads and, above all, the arrival of the railroad made the priorities change. Why keep investing a fortune to open Madrid to the sea when there were faster than the ship to transport goods? Apart from what The Manzanares channel looked like a money background wellin 1851 the Aranjuez train was inaugurated and, although with Isabel II some boats had sailed through the channel, in the second half of the 19th century it was decided to cut the tap of the funds. When not staying and being water is for a long time, health problems began to appear. The channel became a danger and, although maintenance work began again, around 1860 it was decided Cancel Definitely the pharaonic project. The irony: the railway bridge over the Manzanares … Read more

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