The invasion of Ukraine in 2022 dynamited the foundations of European energy security. Before the conflict, Russia supplied between 40% and 45% of the European Union’s natural gas imports, injecting more than 155 billion cubic meters annually into the continent. Faced with the urgency of disconnecting from Moscow, Europe was looking for a place to fill its reserves again and the answer was in the south.
To understand the magnitude of this shift, just look at what is happening on the ground. According to The Africa Reportunder the scorching sun of southern Algeria, the energy ministers of Algeria, Nigeria and Niger officially inaugurated the works of the gigantic Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP). It is not a project on paper; the pipes are already being welded. As detailed Al-Monitorthe Algerian state company Sonatrach has begun building a critical 1,210 kilometer stretch in the Aoulef region, which will connect Nigerian gas to the immense Hassi R’Mel field, a node that already has direct arteries to Europe.
A question of survival. The European Union plans to end its dependence on Russian gas at the end of 2027. The arrival of a new corridor that provides 30 billion cubic meters of gas per year is a strategic lifeline.
But for the African continent, the meaning is even deeper. It is about resolving a historical paradox: being a continent rich in energy but with serious deficiencies in local electricity access. According to an investigation published in the Journal of Geo-Energy and Environmentthe rival project, the Africa-Atlantic Gas Pipeline (AAGP), could generate about $75 million annually in transit revenue for West African countries. Furthermore, these projects are designed so that a part of the gas stays in the transit countries, promoting their electrification, their industrial development and reducing the use of polluting biomass.
The battle of the megaprojects. However, this energy awakening has unleashed a fierce geopolitical rivalry. As highlighted The Africa ReportAlgeria and Morocco are competing aggressively to become the exclusive “gateway” for Nigerian gas to Europe, spearheading two colossal megaprojects competing for international funding and European favor.
On the table are two titans of engineering that promise to change the world map:
- The Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP): Led by Nigeria, Niger and Algeria. Business Insider details that it will measure 4,128 kilometers in length. It will cross the desert and it is estimated that its cost ranges between 13,000 million dollars and the 19.5 billion. With the works already started in Algeria, the Minister of Petroleum of Niger has confirmed that his country will begin to build its section of 720 kilometers at the beginning of 2027.
- The Africa-Atlantic Gas Pipeline (AAGP / NMGP): The Moroccan alternative is even more pharaonic. With a length of between 5,600 and 7,000 kilometers, it will border the entire Atlantic coast, crossing 13 African countries. Its estimated cost amounts to about 25 billion dollars.
How to finance infrastructure of this magnitude? academic research concludes thatAfter analyzing multiple strategies, the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model is the most robust and viable path. This model makes it possible to mobilize the gigantic private capital necessary, transfer the risks of construction and operation, and at the same time ensure that local governments maintain fiscal benefits and employment development.
The small print. Despite the euphoria, the obstacles are formidable. As you remember Al-Monitorthe trans-Saharan gas pipeline was conceived in the 1970s and has suffered decades of paralysis. Academic analyzes warn that the viability of the project is threatened by historical security risks in the Niger Delta, northern Niger and southern Algeria, coupled with political instability caused by recent coups in the Sahel region.
Furthermore, there is an “elephant in the room”: the energy transition. Natural gas is seen as a transition fuel. So that these gas pipelines do not become stranded (obsolete) assets in the long term in the face of European climate policies, experts point out that they must be designed with operational flexibility. This includes “reverse flow” capability to redistribute energy southwards when Europe doesn’t need it, and even adapt infrastructure to transport green hydrogen in a decarbonized future.
A new axis of power. The center of gravity of world energy is falling southward. Europe, cornered by geopolitics, desperately needs the stability of new suppliers; Africa, for its part, demands the investment and infrastructure it has historically been denied.
The success of these thousands of kilometers of steel tubes, buried under the burning sands of the Sahara or submerged off the Atlantic coast, will decide much more than the temperature of European homes in the coming winters. The true historical challenge is not to demonstrate that the continent can turn on the northern lights, but to dare to invent a model where Africa stops exporting its wealth to import dependence. The ultimate goal is for African energy to belong to and transform, once and for all, its own people.
Image | Unsplash
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