Strait

Spain and Morocco have been dreaming of a tunnel under the Strait for 40 years. The great enemy of the project is called Umbral de Camarinal

by

Linking Europe with Africa from the Strait of Gibraltar has been discussed for decades. However, in recent years we have seen how the Governments of the countries involved have been adding steps to this project. Spain and Morocco work has accelerated in recent months to make a railway tunnel a reality that would pass under the Strait and that would connect Punta Paloma (Tarifa) with Cape Malabata (near Tangier). The infrastructure (if it is built) would easily become a historic engineering work, allowing people to cross from one continent to another in just half an hour. What are we talking about?. The project contemplates a strictly railway tunnel, without a viaduct or vehicle lanes (something it originally discussed doing), with a total length of about 42 kilometers between stations, of which 27.7 are submerged. The deepest point it would reach 475 meters below sea level and would cross what is known as the Camarinal Threshold, the shallowest area of ​​the Strait and, curiously, much more complex from a geological point of view. What would it be like inside?. According to data collected by the Spanish public company SECEGSA, the design proposes two independent single-track tubes, each with an inner diameter of 7.90 metersand a 6-meter central service gallery for maintenance and emergency tasks. This gallery would connect with the main tubes through transversal passages every 340 meters. At the lowest point of the layout there would be a safe parking area with intervention areas and a smoke extraction system. High-speed trains for passengers and shuttle convoys for goods and vehicles would run through the tunnel. Who is in charge. The project is moving forward in two ways. On the Spanish side, the work is coordinated by SECEGSA, a public company created in the eighties precisely to promote this connection. On the Moroccan side, the Government has decided to concentrate all its efforts on the channel with Madridruling out other parallel paths. The most recent and relevant agreement It was signed on December 4, 2025 in La Moncloa between the Minister of Transport of Spain, Óscar Puente, and his counterpart in Morocco, Karim Zidane. It contains a memorandum between the Spanish National Geographic Institute and the National Center for Scientific and Technical Research of Morocco (CNRST) to jointly study the seismicity and geodynamics of the Strait for three years. Financing. In March of this year, the Spanish Government approved an additional transfer of 1.73 million euros to finance technical studies, according to they count from La Razón. Added to this item is a marine research campaign commissioned by the Higher Council for Scientific Research (CSIC) with a budget of 553,187 euros, published in the Official State Gazette. This campaign, lasting about 15 days and scheduled for the first half of 2026, includes high-resolution bathymetry, sampling of sediments and rocks from the seabed, and laboratory analysis. Three CSIC institutes participate (Marine, Geological and Mining Sciences, and Oceanography), the Navy Hydrographic Institute and the United States Geological Survey. Obstacles. The key is in the Camarinal Threshold. The Spanish subsidiary of the German manufacturer Herrenknecht, specialized in tunnel boring machines, carried out a feasibility study that concluded that the work is technically possible with current engineering, although he warned of enormous logistical and economic challenges. The subsoil of that area is made up of materials from the Flysch Complex, with layers of sandstone and clay of turbidite origin, covered by more recent sediments. This geological variability, added to the fact that the Strait is located on the Azores-Gibraltar-Tunisia fracture, the same one that caused the devastating Lisbon earthquake of 1755makes excavation a particularly complex challenge. On the other hand, it should be noted that the Strait is not an easy scenario. More than 100,000 ships pass through its waters a year and the study area is located within a Special Conservation Area with a protection plan for orcas. More than 1,900 species of marine flora and fauna have been recorded, which requires obtaining certain environmental permits before doing anything. How much will it cost. Although there are no concrete figures on how much the project would cost, Morocco World News situates the estimated cost alone for the Spanish part is above 8.5 billion euros, while other media such as El Diario elevate the total budget above 15,000 million, to be distributed between Spain, Morocco and the European Union. In any case, it will be one of the most expensive infrastructures ever built in the region. When will it be ready. Here it is advisable to lower expectations. And the deadlines that are managed They place the possible inauguration between 2035 and 2040always in the best of scenarios, but very possibly set more in the 2040s than before (that is, if the work is ever executed). If the seismic and geotechnical studies end up being favorable, a reconnaissance gallery could be put out to tender in 2027, requiring several years to complete to obtain detailed information on the terrain and the viability of the project. Why it matters beyond engineering. Connecting Africa with Europe by rail would encourage trade in very profitable ways, integrating the railway networks of the Maghreb with the European system and making the peninsular south take on a completely different color as a logistical node. Of course, it also raises political debates, especially regarding immigration management. Be that as it may, we will still have to wait to find out if the project finally materializes. Cover image | SECEGSA and Google Earth In Xataka | Amazon wants to save its ‘cloud’ from the mud: the plan to shield Zaragoza against large floods

In 1967 a war closed the Suez Canal for eight years. Half a century later, the Strait of Hormuz looks into the same abyss

by

When war broke out between Egypt and Israel in 1967, fifteen commercial ships were trapped in the Suez Canal. The captains dropped anchor assuming they would only have to wait a few days for the fighting to end. They were right about the duration of hostilities: it was the Six Day War. However, It took eight years for the canal to reopen. When the ships were finally able to set sail in 1975, only two were still seaworthy. The rest had rusted so much under the desert sun that They went down in history as the “Yellow Fleet”. Almost sixty years later, history rhymes in the Persian Gulf. Ninety days after the war between the United States, Israel and Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February, the most important maritime passage in the world remains closed. Dozens of oil tankers wait at anchor, waiting for a diplomatic agreement that always seems imminent but never arrives. The optimism trap on Wall Street The analyst Javier Blas, in your column for Bloombergexposes the dangerous complacency with which the world is facing this closure. The financial industry operates under an adapted version of Stein’s Law: “The Strait cannot be closed forever because it would cause too much economic damage; therefore, it will reopen soon.” The problem with this logic is that the economy has not yet inflicted the pain necessary to force peace. As Blas points out: For Washington: The war is proving politically cheap. The US economy is riding with quarterly growth of more than 4% and the S&P 500 index is close to historical highs, having risen almost 10% since the start of the conflict. For Tehran: Even as the currency plummets and inflation chokes the population, the Iranian regime has demonstrated for decades an almost inexhaustible capacity to absorb economic punishment when it considers it faces an existential threat. While the mediators seek an agreement in Islamabadinertia maintains the illusion of normality. The market has absorbed the disappearance of about 20 million barrels per day thanks to accumulated inventories and massive releases of strategic reserves. Qero the global tank is emptying. June: The end of logistics inertia If we do not see shortages on the streets it is due to pure physics of transportation: a supertanker moves at the speed of a bicycle. The fuel that the West consumed in the spring left the Gulf before the first missile fell. However, the data They already show the cracks in the system. Global demand fell by 5 million barrels per day in April, the largest consumption destruction since the COVID-19 pandemic. And the blow is already felt at home: Funcas warns thatIf the conflict continues, Spanish inflation will exceed 4% and growth will fall to 1.8%. In addition, the multimillion-dollar extra cost of fuel for airlines such as Iberia or Vueling directly threatens the waterline of Spanish tourism. The real precipice has a date: June. With the arrival of summer, the peak driving season and the massive use of air conditioning will collide with inventories at multi-year lows. Furthermore, a diplomatic reopening it would not solve the physical problem: Clearing the mile-wide Hormuz safe lane would require months of complex naval operations. However, the impact of this crisis goes far beyond the gas pump. As the physical shortage of crude oil becomes undeniable, the most serious repercussions are brewing in the bowels of the global financial system: The fracture of the petrodollar: The unwritten agreement of 1974, which guaranteed security in the Gulf in exchange for crude oil being sold in dollars and reinvested in US debt, is breaking down. Countries like India They are selling their US Treasury bonds to obtain liquidity and pay for much more expensive oil. The bond market: The persistence of energy inflation has skyrocketed sovereign bond yields. 30-year Treasury bonds in the US exceeded 5.15%. The cost of real life: If government bonds yield above 5%, 30-year mortgages are inexorably approaching 7%. This translates into more expensive loans, lower business investment and a paralysis of the real estate market. As several analysts warn, undoing the economic damage from Hormuz could require an induced recession to curb borrowing costs. The bypass of the desert While the world waits, some actors have already given up on Hormuz. United Arab Emirates has accelerated urgently the construction of a gigantic pipeline that bypasses the strait, with the goal of exporting 3.5 million barrels a day directly to the Gulf of Oman by 2027. It is “prudent planning for the worst scenario,” and a clear sign that Abu Dhabi believes the waterway could remain threatened for years. Half a century ago, no one imagined that 15 ships would spend a decade rotting in the sun in Suez for a war that lasted less than a week. Today, the world assumes that the Hormuz crisis will be a temporary blip. But as the days go by, the shock absorbers wear out and the financial markets creak. The oil is simply still waiting in the sea. Image | Photo by Jens Rademacher on Unsplash Xataka | The war in the East has reached an unexpected agreement: one where the US does not discuss Iran’s missiles, bombs or uranium

In the 16th century, Spain wanted to control the Strait of Magellan by founding a city. It became a cursed settlement

by

A coin is a coin. And a compass, a compass. What seems so obvious changes when we talk about the old (and ephemeral) city ​​of King Don Felipea Spanish settlement founded more than four centuries ago by Pedro Sarmiento de Gamboa on the northern shore of the Strait of Magellan. Its objective was to become a fortress that would reinforce the control of the Spanish Crown in a strategic maritime passage, but the mission became so complicated that the town ended up becoming a death trap for its settlers. Things went so badly that with the passage of time the citadel ended up being renamed ‘Port of Hunger’a name much more in line with what happened there in the 17th century, and its memory it faded in the mists of history. We had to wait until well into the 20th century so that the secrets of King Don Felipe would emerge from oblivion… and the earth. Now the archaeologists have found among its ruins a small piece of silver that in March 1584 Pedro Sarmiento de Gamboa himself deposited there during the founding ceremony of the town. In its day it was a simple currency (a real of eight) that was used for ritual purposes. In 2026 it has become something more: a compassa guide that will help researchers better understand the structure and location of the city of Rey Don Felipe, the cursed citadel in the Strait of Magellan that should never have existed. At the ends of the world Today the world lives pending what happens in the Strait of Hormuz. Almost five centuries ago the eyes of the Spanish Crown were directed towards another maritime strait with important strategic value: that of Magellana navigable strip located south of what is now Chile and that stands out as the natural connection between the Pacific and the Atlantic. Since Ferdinand Magellan crossed it for the first time, in the autumn 1520the pass became an object of desire for the Spanish Empire, especially after other expeditions managed to cross it successfully and the English entered the race for its control through late 1570s from the hand of the corsair Francis Drake. To guarantee Spain’s geopolitical plans and its exclusive control of the transoceanic passage, the authorities had an idea: found permanent settlements in the area. The mission fell to Pedro Sarmiento de Gamboaa hardworking sailor who, among other missions, had participated in a (frustrated) mission of the Viceroyalty of Peru to hunt down Drake. Sarmiento first undertook an expedition with two ships in the autumn of 1579 to reconnoiter the coastline of the strait and explore its coasts and, once back in Spain, in 1580 he played a decisive role in getting the Council of the Indies to decide to build citadels and fortifications in the transoceanic passage to America. The expedition left Sanlúcar at the end of September 1581 with a fleet of 23 boats and around 3,000 men, including sailors and future settlers. Despite his enormous ambition, the adventure started badly. And not only because of the differences between Sarmiento and Diego Flores de Valdeswho had been appointed captain general of the Strait Navy. Before even leaving Cádiz, a storm sank half a dozen ships and killed 800 men. What followed next was a journey marked by disagreements between Sarmiento and Valdés, illnesses, the inclemency of the ocean and storms that caused the expedition to lose ships, crew and supplies. After various incidents and vicissitudes, Sarmiento and his men arrived at the strait at the beginning of 1584 and founded a city that they named ‘Purification of Our Lady’. It didn’t work. The location and climate did not help, so Sarmiento looked for a new enclave, near Cape Vírgenes, and founded a settlement which he called ‘Name of Jesus’. Determined to continue with the mission, the sailor chose part of the 340 people he kept and looked for a third location to create another citadel. On this occasion he baptized it with a nod to the Habsburg court (King Don Felipe) and celebrated the founding ceremony in March 1584. We know that Sarmiento himself participated in the ritual. On March 25, he laid the first stone of the citadel church and, with it, in the foundations, buried a real of eight silver. As they explain from the Bernardo O’Higgins University of Santiago, it was “a symbolic gesture that marked the birth of the city.” If the ritual was intended to promote the settlement’s fortunes, it only half worked. It has served archaeologists of the 21st century, who have just found the coin “in place and position” described by Sarmiento in his writings and now, thanks to that clue, they will have an easier time interpreting a map of the 16th century in which the buildings of the town are represented. The one who certainly had no use for the currency was the colonists who settled in Rey Don Felipe city. Theirs was a tragic story from the beginning. a cursed city Ciudad Rey Don Felipe may have enjoyed a privileged location from a geopolitical and strategic point of view, but the truth is that it soon became hell for its settlers. And not only because the crew of the ill-fated (and diminished) Armada del Estrecho arrived in Magallanes at the limit of their strength. In ‘Port of Hunger. Beyond the legend’a work signed by the historian Soledad González and the archaeologist Simón Urbina, a key piece of information is provided: “On board the ships or on land they saw people die or desert. nine out of ten colleaguesfriends or family. As if that were not enough, after founding the Nombre de Jesús settlement, the crew divided into groups to expand towards the Santa Ana peninsula, precisely to establish Rey Don Felipe. Once there, and despite the fact that Sarmiento de Gamboa was quick to lay the foundations of the new citadel (both in a metaphorical and literal sense), things did not improve. The scene looked so bad … Read more

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz chokes the Chinese economy. Its only energy solution is a historic pact with Putin

by

“一日不见，如隔三秋” (A day without seeing you is like three autumns). Using the Russian translation of this ancient Chinese proverb, President Vladimir Putin wanted to begin his meeting with Xi Jinping. The gesture of extreme closeness was not accidental. Tiananmen Square was dressed up with a 21-gun salute, a military band and dozens of children waving flags to welcome the Russian president. On the face of it, Beijing displayed the same diplomatic theatrics and pageantry it had offered to US President Donald Trump just days earlier, as detailed Bloomberg. However, the background was diametrically opposite: if with Trump the red carpet sought to appease and choreograph stability with a volatile rival, with Putin the authority and support for a cornered partner was staged. The Chinese leader addressed his counterpart as an “old friend,” a term unusually reserved in the Party bureaucracy for highly regarded foreigners. The visit, which marks the 25th anniversary of the signing of the friendship treaty between both countries and represents Putin’s 25th trip to China, represents a vital alliance at the most critical moment of the decade. Behind the walks through the imperial gardens and the closed-door meetings, there is a suffocating urgency. The global board is burning due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz derived from the war between the United States and Iran, a blockade that has cut off Asia’s energy arteries and has turned this summit into a geopolitical lifeline. The Siberian lifeguard. The response to the crisis has a clear name on the agenda of both leaders: the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline. According to the estimatesOnce completed, this colossal 2,600-kilometer-long infrastructure will transport up to 50 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas per year from the Russian Arctic fields of Yamal to northern China, passing through Mongolia. Moscow and Beijing have already reached a “general understanding” on the project, encompassing consensus on the layout and construction methods, as stated Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov told journalists and spokesman Dmitri Peskov confirmed. Additionally, both governments have signed a legally binding supply memorandum to boost construction. But all that glitters is not gold. As newspapers such as he Financial Times and CNBCthe agreement has been stumbling over the same rock for years: the price, financing and delivery schedule. China, aware of its position of strength, demands that the rate for the new gas pipeline be equal to the price of the heavily subsidized Russian domestic market (between $120 and $130 per 1,000 cubic meters), conditions that would drastically reduce the profit margins for the Russian state giant Gazprom. Furthermore, secrecy and caution reign in Beijing: as pointed out Reuterswhen Gazprom announced the memorandum last September, China did not issue any official statement on the matter. And even if the agreement is closed now, Russian salvation will not be immediate; from the research unit of China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) has already has warned that gas projects of this magnitude require at least eight to ten years for their construction. The Hormuz factor: a geopolitical accelerator. If the gas pipeline had been on the drawing board for years, the Third Gulf War has stepped on the accelerator. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a real cataclysm in the Indo-Pacific region. This maritime blockade has suddenly interrupted the arrival of half of China’s oil imports and almost a third of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply. The consequences they have been immediate: The Asian giant has already reported a rebound in inflation and an abrupt weakening of its domestic economic activity during the month of April. Faced with maritime vulnerability, securing a land supply route is vital for Beijing’s survival. As experts in German Welleinstability in the Gulf has triggered China’s desire for a pipelined energy flow that is immune to Western sanctions or American naval blockades. Still, China faces this crisis with homework done. Far from improvising, Beijing took advantage of the previous years to buy heavily sanctioned crude oil from countries such as Russia, Venezuela and Iran. Thanks to this, China today has colossal strategic reserves, also supported by a fleet of Iranian oil tankers that function as a floating warehouse off its coasts. A deeply strained and asymmetrical relationship. Although official statements speak of “mutual respect” and a “limitless” partnership, economic reality depicts a deeply unequal relationship. President Putin himself has declared that Russia and China want to be equal partners, but the gap is evident: the Chinese economy is almost eight times larger and much more technologically advanced. Without China’s money and technology, the very survival of the Russian regime would be in question. The data is devastating. According to him Financial TimesRussia has suffered a 38% year-on-year drop in its energy export revenues. To survive Western isolation, Moscow has turned China into its lifeline. At the end of last year, more than 99% of bilateral trade was settled in rubles and yuan to circumvent the SWIFT system, and Beijing currently supplies 90% of imports of sanctioned Russian technology, including semiconductors, microelectronics and dual-use goods, essential for its war machine. For his part, Xi Jinping carries out a delicate diplomatic balancing act. His meeting with Putin comes just days after his summit with Donald Trump. This synchronicity allows Russia a key tactical move: as reported EuronewsPutin’s trip serves to receive direct information and exchange views with Beijing on recent negotiations with Washington. Simultaneously, China does not hesitate to invoke its “Blocking Rules” to order its domestic refiners to ignore US sanctions and continue buying Iranian crude. But at the same time, as the newspaper highlights Asahi Shimbunthe Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed the purchase of 200 Boeing aircraft just after Trump’s visit, in a clear gesture to stabilize its economic ties with the West. A new world epicenter. The current crisis and the negotiations in Beijing certify an irreversible paradigm shift. The entry into operation of “Power of Siberia 2” is not just a commercial agreement, it is the chronicle of an announced breakup. … Read more

The Strait of Hormuz has become a death trap. The Arab Emirates’ solution is a pharaonic oil “bypass” through the desert

by

The new energy order is not debated in suit and tie summits, but is rising against the clock under the scorching sun of the Arabian Peninsula. Suffocated by the Third Gulf War, the United Arab Emirates has hit the table: it refuses to leave the survival of its trade routes in the hands of chance, war or its neighbors. The strategy is clear: if the strait is a minefield, they will build a rear exit. The news that has shaken the foundations of oil logistics came to light through official channels. According to a statement from the company itself ADNOC (the Emirati state oil company), His Highness Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed has chaired a key meeting in which he has ordered an urgent directive: to accelerate the construction of the new “West-East Pipeline” project. But what infrastructure are we talking about exactly? As energy analyst Javier Blas points outthe key to this movement is that the Emirates is laying out a second oil pipeline expressly designed to turn its back on the Strait of Hormuz. The date marked on the calendar is 2027. When they open the tap, this new infrastructure will double the volume of crude oil that the country takes out to the world through the port of Fujairah (in the Gulf of Oman). In practical figures, this represents a gigantic leap: they will go from the 1.5 million barrels a day that they move right now, to injecting between 3 and 3.5 million. It is not a project improvised in the last week. As analyst Bachar El-Halabi points outwork on this project began quietly in early 2024, long before the war in Iran paralyzed the region. However, the conflict has acted as the definitive “catalyst.” The war did not inspire the pipeline, but it has injected it with urgency. The logistical “antidote” As was discussed in the middle Amwaj Mediathe Iran war has starkly exhibited the tremendous vulnerability of maritime bottlenecks (chokepoints). The near-total shutdown of Hormuz has caused the worst supply disruption in history, removing 12% of the world’s oil from the market. In this context, the West-East pipeline stands as a lifeline. This Emirati infrastructure, added to the gigantic oil pipeline East-West (or Petroline) of 1,200 kilometers that Saudi Arabia has reactivated towards the Red Sea, form a true logistical “antidote.” They are escape routes that neutralize Tehran’s blackmail, allowing crude oil to go out into the world without entering the range of missiles and blockades in the Persian Gulf. They are, in the words of experts, “buying invaluable time” for the West. To understand the privilege of having this infrastructure, just look at the neighboring country: the situation in Iraq exposes the other side of the coin. Lacking alternative outlets to the sea and completely dependent on Hormuz, Iraq has been left without physical space to store its own oil. As a result, Baghdad has been forced to shut down 70% of production in its prolific southern fields and beg the Kurdistan region to let them use an old, patched-up pipeline to Turkey that barely manages to export 250,000 barrels a day. Iraq is a hostage to its own geography; The Emirates, on the other hand, are buying their freedom with steel and engineering. A free (and flooded) market by 2027 All this new logistical muscle takes on its true meaning when it intersects with another historic decision: the Emirates’ slamming of the door on OPEC+. Emirates has formally left the organizationarguing the defense of their “national interest.” After almost six decades, the country has decided that its national interests no longer fit into the cartel’s quotas. The UAE had been accumulating commercial frustration for years because OPEC forced them to limit their pumping to 3.2 million barrels per day, despite the fact that the country has invested aggressively to reach a production capacity of 5 million barrels by 2027, the same year in which its new megagas pipeline to Fujairah will be ready. But as various international media explain, this divorce is not just about money. Abu Dhabi feels betrayed. The Emirates have had to absorb much of the impact of Iranian missiles and drones alone, feeling that their Arab “brothers” and the Gulf Cooperation Council were turning their backs on them. Therefore, the consequences of this schism will be tectonic. The cartel has seen its global market share plummet to 26%. When the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the West-East pipeline operates at full capacity, the Emirates will flood the market under its own rules, leaving a lone Saudi Arabia to bear the brutal cost of trying to stabilize prices in a world of extreme volatility. The cold war for the future The Emirati order, in fact, is directly addressed to Riyadh. In the silent cold war it is waging with Saudi Arabia for regional hegemony, the Emirates refuses to be a supporting actor in the face of Prince Mohamed bin Salman’s monolithic “Vision 2030.” As explained Middle East Economythe UAE can afford to leave OPEC and endure a downward pulse in prices because its break-even Fiscal is around a comfortable $45 per barrel, compared to the much greater needs of its neighbors. Thanks to diversification, the Emirates today generates 25% of its electricity with the Barakah nuclear power plant and has immense solar parks, allowing itself to use today’s petrodollars to finance hydrogen and the technology of tomorrow. However, this apparent invulnerability has a terrifying blind spot. Military analysts warn that, in the era of hybrid warfare, a steel pipe is of little use if a $500 drone can paralyze the region. The Third Gulf War already demonstrated this fragility when a drone reached the gigantic Emirati Ruwais refinery. Added to this is the panic unleashed when pro-Iranian militias explicitly threatened vital infrastructure such as the Barakah nuclear power plant. The Emirates is building its financial and logistical freedom, yes, but it is doing so through a minefield. The new West-East pipeline is ultimately much more than a … Read more

close the Bering Strait

by

We haven’t been talking about it for years without reason, the consequences of the end of the Gulf Stream would be catastrophic in much of the northern hemisphere and, above all, for Europe. For this reason, many scientists have stopped wondering if it is going to happen or not; and they have begun to wonder how we avoid it. And beyond the well-known emissions cut, the responses have sincerely been tremendous: from proposals to cool the Arctic or launch orbital sunshades into space to chartering planes to fertilize the ocean with millions and millions of tons of iron… But perhaps the last one is the one that takes the cake: some climatologists have started doing the math to see What would happen if we closed the Bering Strait. What is this about the Gulf Stream? Its technical name is ‘Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation’ and it is, in general terms, the North Atlantic branch of the thermohaline circulation. Since the sun does not heat the sea equally everywhere and freshwater flows reach the ocean at very specific points, this is the basic mechanism by which the oceans balance differences in temperature and salinity. The AMOC is a good example of this regulation. After all, as explained from AEMETit is an “Atlantic basin-scale north-south ocean flow that begins with cold sea water sinking to the bottom off Greenland, subsequently flowing south, and being replaced by warmer water flowing at the surface from the south, transferring heat from the tropics to the east coast of North America and the west coast of Europe.” And why do they want to build a dam in the Bering Strait? Well, strictly speaking, they don’t want to close the Bering Strait, they just picked up the idea of ​​a Soviet engineer from the 1950s and they have done calculations to see if this could help resolve the issue. It may seem somewhat counterintuitive, but the basic idea is that cutting off the flow of waters from the Pacific to the Arctic would favor the creation of deep waters (due to the difference in salinities). The calculations show that it makes sense. How does that make sense? Well, yes, it’s true. It makes partial sense. Here’s the interesting thing: As long as the AMOC can continue moving salt northward, the mechanism works and protects the climate of the Northern Hemisphere. On the other hand, if the AMOC is weakened, the closure of Bering would have the opposite effect. It would plunge us into an even more complex winter. Thank goodness it’s crazy, right? It is not very realistic, that is clear. But I’m not sure I’d say it’s crazy either. As the authors themselves acknowledge, there are already dams (such as the Saemangeum in Korea) that are 33 kilometers long: half of what would be required to close the strait. So is it something viable? Nobody says that. Not even the authors say so.. But it is something interesting in order to reflect on one of the great themes of the future: the increasingly imperative “need” of humanity to take the reins of control of the planet. Something that, in short, can cost us very dearly. Image | Fictional recreation In Xataka | The current that warms Europe will weaken by 51% before the end of the century. And Spain, according to experts, is already beginning to notice

In silence, the US is arming Spain’s most uncomfortable neighbor on the other side of the Strait of Gibraltar in a big way.

by

The scene took place in the 1980s, when the United States discreetly used bases in southern Spain to launch air strikes on Libya, an operation that showed to what extent the strategic balances in the Mediterranean could depend on little visible agreements for public opinion. Decades later, that same board moves again, although along less obvious paths for Spain. A silent turn in the Strait. In the surroundings of Strait of Gibraltar A fundamental strategic change is taking place that does not respond to a single movement in itself, but to an entire accumulation of decisions sustained over time that are strengthening Morocco. as a key military actor on the southern European flank. This movement, although it is still not public, has now acquired character official with the signature of a road map of defense between the governments of Rabat and Washington for the next decade, a movement that is neither trivial nor an isolated gesture, but the formalization of a broader commitment in which the United States consolidates Morocco in the next 10 years as itsyour preferred partner in North Africa, with direct implications for regional balance and, no doubt, for Spain’s position. From regional partner to strategic platform. Yes, because the relationship between both countries has evolved to make Morocco more than an allygoing on to play the role of operational and technological platform from which the United States projects influence towards Africa and the Mediterranean. There are several examples, for example, the exercises as African Lionwhich integrate troops, industry and technology, and reflect this transformation, as well as the incorporation advanced capabilities as the Link-16 systemwhich brings Morocco closer to NATO standards. This leap not only improves military interoperability, but also places the country in a privileged position within the Western security architecture. Access to advanced technology. The reinforcement of this alliance translates into a military modernization unprecedented, with a significant increase in defense spending and access to systems that until recently were out of reach, from helicopters Apache attack up to guided munitions and potentially the almighty F-35 Lightning II fighters. Added to this is the development of a self defense industrywith production, maintenance and training plants that allow Morocco not only to acquire capabilities, but to begin to consolidate them autonomously, reducing its external dependence in the long term. A rearmament to change the balance. Be that as it may, and despite this progress, Spain maintains a clear superiority for now in structural termsespecially in the naval field and in its technological and industrial base, which allows it to retain a significant advantage over Morocco. However, this advantage is no longer as large as in the past, and the trend and agreement with Washington aims for a progressive convergence, driven by Moroccan economic growth and its sustained investment in military capabilities. If you like, the result is not an immediate balance, but an increasingly competitive environment in which the distance between both countries is reduced constantly. Technology, influence and projection. Plus: Morocco’s objective is not limited to improving its military capacity, but is very possibly part of a broader strategy to increase its geopolitical weight in the Maghreb, the Sahel and the entire western Mediterranean. American support, along with its approach to other partners like Israelreinforces this idea and ambition, allowing Rabat to position itself as a central actor in regional security and as a privileged interlocutor of the great powers in the area. Gradual change. In short, the panorama that draw ten years view is not that of an abrupt and total break, of course, but rather that of a progressive transformation in which Morocco gains capabilities, influence and room for maneuver thanks to the US support. In this process, Spain will continue to be the dominant actor on the military level, but it no longer operates in a static environment, but in one in which its neighbor to the south, often uncomfortable depending on the circumstances, is getting stronger constantly, slowly altering the balance in one of the most sensitive points of Europe, and nuclear from Spain. Image | US Africa CommandNARA In Xataka | The tunnel between Spain and Morocco seemed like a chimera. Now a tunnel boring machine manufacturer says it is viable In Xataka | The US threatened to take the Rota base to Morocco. Spain has buried it with an unbeatable offer: more territory

The US already has the first response to its blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. A boomerang of unpredictable consequences: China

by

During a crisis with Japan in 2019, China constantly sent patrol boats and government vessels to the disputed waters of the senkaku islandsmaintaining an almost daily presence without completely crossing the line of direct confrontation. That strategy, based on sustained pressure without shock frontal, showed how Beijing can protect its interests at sea by playing on an ambiguous terrain where every move counts. The block changes the board. USA has finally activated the naval blockade of Iranian ports in response to the failure of negotiations, deploying ships, special forces and interdiction capabilities to cut off the flow of oil and economically suffocate Tehran. The operation does not seek to completely close the Strait of Hormuz, but to control who enters and who leaves of the Iranian energy system, which involves intercepting, diverting or even boarding ships in transit. This movement, long studied by the Pentagon, marks a qualitative leap in war, since it transfers pressure from the air and land to the sea, where the legal, military and commercial implications are much more diffuse. and potentially explosive. The reality of global trade. The fundamental problem of the blockade is not only in its military execution, but in its fit with the global system of energy transport, where the majority of the ships are not Iranian, but from third countries such as India, Iraq or, especially China. Intercepting or pressuring these ships in international waters introduces an entirely different dimension, one where the line between military action and global economic conflict is blurred.becomes extremely thin. Thus, each attempt to stop this flow not only affects Iran, but also removes more crude oil from the market, raises prices and transfers the political and economic cost to the blocker himself. Iran and the long term. I remembered the weekend the new york times that, far from collapsing, Iran has demonstrated remarkable strategic resilience, relying on alternative routes, land trade with Asia and financial networks that include Asian, especially Chinese, banks and partners. Its economy, although under pressure, continues to function thanks to indirect exports, accumulated income and access to credit, while control of the strait allows it to continue conditioning the global energy market. In this context, the time plays in your favor: The longer the crisis continues, the greater the wear and tear on the United States and its allies, both in economic and political terms. Permanent military friction point. The blockade forces the US navy to operate in a extremely delicate environmentone where any interaction with suspicious vessels can escalate quickly. The need to board oil tankers, manage crews or redirect cargo turns each operation into a possible international incidentespecially if those ships are protected or linked to state actors. Added to this is the latent threat from Iran, which maintains sufficient capacity (missiles, drones, fast boats) to turn any mistake or specific confrontation into a major climb. The boomerang effect: China. The great consequence of the blockade at this time has not been long in coming, and it is China’s reactionthe main buyer of Iranian oil and a key player in the region. Beijing has made it clear through a statement that it will continue to defend its energy and commercial interests, keeping its routes open and warning against any external interference. There is no doubt, this introduces a completely new risk to the conflict: that of a direct or indirect shock between US forces and assets linked to China, whether in the form of tankers, escorts or diplomatic and economic pressure. Furthermore, the Asian giant has response tools that go beyond the military sphere, from the use of its commercial weight to the control of critical resources. Dead end scenario. The result is a situation in which the attempt to strangle Iran It becomes a system of crossed tensions with multiple actors, where each movement generates new frictions. Blocking does not guarantee a quick resolutionbut it does increase the chances of miscalculations, incidents at sea and escalations that are difficult to contain. Precisely in this unstable balance, the United States not only faces Iran, but an environment where the consequences rebound outside the region, with China as the actor who turns a regional operation into a first order global problem. Image | US Navy In Xataka | The problem in Hormuz is not that it is closed: it is that Iran has “lost the keys” and without them the balance is broken In Xataka | The most buoyant market right now is selling streaming and satellite images of US movements to Iran.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz already points to gasoline at two euros/liter

by

Unpredictable, unexpected and extreme impact. There are three characteristics that define what Nassim TalebLebanese philosopher, mathematician and essayist, pointed out to explain the “black swan theory”. With it he tries to explain what position to take in the face of such an inexplicable event of which we cannot understand its consequences. The theory takes its cue from the poet Juvenal, who once spoke of “a rare bird on earth, and very similar to a black swan“, a phrase that makes it clear that there was a time when it was believed that the swan, invariably, must be white because a black one had never been discovered. The phrase, in fact, was popular in England centuries ago. For Western Europe, swans were white. Spot. But a Dutch expedition at the end of the 17th century in Australia found that the black swan did indeed exist, which forever changed the knowledge we had on this subject. It was an unexpected, unpredictable event whose impact was extreme in its branch. Nacho Rabadán, general director of CEEES (Spanish Confederation of Service Station Employers), the most representative association of the sector, rescues this theory to point out what can happen with a constant block of the Strait of Hormuz. “Whenever there are problems in the Middle East, there is speculation about a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz and whenever that possibility is on the table, the price of oil rises. If Hormuz were really closed, we would be talking about a black swan, there would be an immediate and violent reaction in the price of oil and we would be in a scenario similar to that of the spring of 2022 with the invasion of Ukraine,” Rabadán explains to ABC. Gasoline at two euros/liter If the prices of the first days of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are reached, we would be talking about gasoline at a sustained price of between 1.80 and 2.00 euros/liter. At that time, Europe got to work to contain the impact on homes, mitigated in our country with one of subsidy of 20 cents/liter that did not end up stopping the rise in price and which, in fact, came to be used as means to attract clients according to the CNMC. Those days when OPEC maneuvered to keep the price of oil above $80/barrel seems far away. It even reached $130/barrel. But now they seem more alive than ever. The Strait of Hormuz is a key passage for energy for much of the world. It is an enclave of high tension, where the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf narrow to leave just a passage of between 60 and 100 kilometers for ships loaded with oil. For Iran, Oman, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, controlling the passage of ships is key. since two weeksthe traffic is committed and with the attack by the United States and Israel on Iranand the country’s response to neighboring countries with US bases, the closure seems confirmed. A closure that has caught some 240 ships stopped in the middle of a historic traffic jam. Of them, Bloomberg The number of detained ships loaded with the precious commodity is estimated at 40 supertankers. The impact on the oil futures market was immediate once the attack became known but, for now, the price per barrel is close to 73 euros/unit (a few days ago it was around 65 dollars/barrel). The impact should be felt in the coming days if the fight becomes entrenched and Hormuz remains closed. For now, the price of gasoline has already risen slightly but the figures we find at the pumps will be, in the opinion of analystsmuch lower than we can expect in a few days. With the Ukrainian War and the Russia’s exit from the market (legal) of fuel, the price of gasoline shot up to 2.15 euros/liter and diesel to 2.10 euros/liter. The fear, of course, is not that only the price of fuel will skyrocket. Increasing its price impacts a general rise in prices since transportation is much more expensive. In fact, indirectly, not only the closure of Hormuz to the passage of oil can make products more expensive. Have to border the entire African coast to reach Europe to avoid attacks by some and others would raise the final bill. Both because of the extra fuel spent and the higher cost of keeping a ship traveling for more than 10 days, which extends the route in traffic between Asia and Europe. Photo | Marek Studzinski and Glenn Fawcett, Gieling, Rob In Xataka | Spain was supposed to raise diesel in 2026. It was supposed

Tension in Iran is so high that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. And that will have consequences when you go to refuel.

by

The world woke up today with a dangerous contradiction: while in the aseptic halls of Geneva the diplomats of the United States and Iran they shake hands cautiouslyin the waters of the Persian Gulf, the speedboats of the Revolutionary Guard block the passage of oil tankers. It doesn’t take a missile to fall for the global economy to feel the impact; Fear is trading higher and traveling faster than any ship. The Strait of Hormuz, the planet’s energy jugular, has undergone closure “partial and temporary” for the first time since tensions escalated in January. For the consumer, this is not a distant headline: the price of Brent oil has already increased by 13% so far this year. An increase in prices that does not respond to a real lack of supply, but rather to the geopolitical risk premium. We are paying for what could happen, not for what has happened. As confirmed by Iranian state media cited by EuronewsTehran ordered the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz under the justification of “security precautions.” The Iranian Fars news agency, referenced by Deutsche Welleexplained that this maneuver responds to the military exercises called “Intelligent Control of the Strait of Hormuz.” It is an unprecedented move in this crisis: it is the first time that Iran has physically closed sectors of the waterway since the US administration threatened military action last January. However, it is important to clarify the operational scope so as not to fall into unjustified alarmism. Jakob Larsen, safety director at Bimco (the association representing global shipowners), explained to the CNBC that it is not an indefinite total block. The closure affects the incoming “traffic separation scheme” area and lasts “several hours.” Iranian authorities have asked commercial ships to stay away from the exercise zone, which is causing delays and “minor inconveniences,” but the flow has not stopped completely. A 33 kilometer funnel for 20% of the world’s oil To understand why the market is holding its breath, you have to look at the map. The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) rate this step as the “choke point” (chokepoint) most important in the world for oil transit. The figures are overwhelming: Volume: About 20 million barrels of crude oil, condensates and refined products flow through this artery daily. Global Impact: According to data from consulting firms Vortexa and Kplerthis represents approximately 20% of global consumption of petroleum liquids and nearly 30% of maritime crude oil trade. The problem is geographical. As explained D.W.At its narrowest point, the road is just 33 kilometers wide. But crucially, the safe navigable route for large supertankers is only two miles wide in each direction. It’s a perfect funnel where any interruption, no matter how small, creates an immediate domino effect. He timing of this military operation is not a coincidence; It’s a message. As analyzed Euronewsthe partial closure occurred exactly while the second round of nuclear talks between Abbas Araghchi, Iranian Foreign Minister, and Steve Witkoff, US special envoy, was being held in Geneva. For this reason, Tehran is using the strait as a negotiating lever. The United States has increased its military pressure with the deployment of the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford in the region, in response to both Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the bloody repression of internal protests shaking the Persian country. Paradoxically, diplomacy seems to advance while the guns are aimed. According to ReutersAraghchi confirmed after the meeting that a “principle of agreement” has been reached on the bases of a future relationship, although he warned that closing the final pact will be a slow process. Iran shows its fist in the sea while offering its hand in Switzerland. The price mirage: why do we pay the “fear premium”? The market reaction has been an emotional rollercoaster in the last 24 hours: Tuesday’s mirage: Initially, when the progress in Geneva became known, the price of oil fell. The barrel of Brent fell 1.8% (to $67.36) and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) lost 1%. The markets “bought” the hope of peace. Today’s reality, Wednesday: The trend has reversed. Prices are recovering and rising again. As explained in OilPricethe traders have reevaluated the situation: the final agreement seems distant and the physical closure of the strait, although partial, is a tangible reality today. As Sugandha Sachdeva points out, analyst cited by Reutersthe market is experiencing a “technical rally” because doubt dominates the scene. Although 82% of the crude oil that passes through Hormuz goes to Asia (China, India, Japan), oil is a global market. If there is a lack of supply in Asia, those countries will bid for the crude oil available in other regions, making the barrel more expensive for everyone. This has an immediate effect on Europe due to the “financialization” of energy. Gas and oil they have stopped being simple commodities to become financial assets that operate with high-speed algorithms. The volatility is such that “an early morning headline about Iran can alter the price of heating in Berlin before dawn.” The European Achilles heel The situation is especially delicate for the Old Continent. Europe is experiencing a “painful déjà vu“: fleeing from Russian dependence, has fallen into dependence on gas that arrives by ship (LNG). European gas reserves are at worrying lows (44% at the end of January) and vulnerability is maximum. This is where Hormuz plays a critical role beyond oil. As we have detailed in Xatakathe European Union looks to Qatar as a vital alternative for its gas supply, but “military tensions between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz put that route at risk.” If the strait is closed, not only oil to Asia is blocked, but also the Qatari liquefied natural gas that Europe desperately needs to refill its warehouses for next winter. The short-term horizon is bleak. According to an estimate by Eurasia Group collected by OilPricethere is a 65% chance that the United States will launch a military strike against Iran in April if the current talks … Read more

Log In

Forgot password?

Forgot password?

Enter your account data and we will send you a link to reset your password.

Your password reset link appears to be invalid or expired.

Log in

Privacy Policy

Add to Collection

No Collections

Here you'll find all collections you've created before.