In silence, the US is arming Spain’s most uncomfortable neighbor on the other side of the Strait of Gibraltar in a big way.

The scene took place in the 1980s, when the United States discreetly used bases in southern Spain to launch air strikes on Libya, an operation that showed to what extent the strategic balances in the Mediterranean could depend on little visible agreements for public opinion. Decades later, that same board moves again, although along less obvious paths for Spain.

A silent turn in the Strait. In the surroundings of Strait of Gibraltar A fundamental strategic change is taking place that does not respond to a single movement in itself, but to an entire accumulation of decisions sustained over time that are strengthening Morocco. as a key military actor on the southern European flank.

This movement, although it is still not public, has now acquired character official with the signature of a road map of defense between the governments of Rabat and Washington for the next decade, a movement that is neither trivial nor an isolated gesture, but the formalization of a broader commitment in which the United States consolidates Morocco in the next 10 years as itsyour preferred partner in North Africa, with direct implications for regional balance and, no doubt, for Spain’s position.

From regional partner to strategic platform. Yes, because the relationship between both countries has evolved to make Morocco more than an allygoing on to play the role of operational and technological platform from which the United States projects influence towards Africa and the Mediterranean.

There are several examples, for example, the exercises as African Lionwhich integrate troops, industry and technology, and reflect this transformation, as well as the incorporation advanced capabilities as the Link-16 systemwhich brings Morocco closer to NATO standards. This leap not only improves military interoperability, but also places the country in a privileged position within the Western security architecture.

Access to advanced technology. The reinforcement of this alliance translates into a military modernization unprecedented, with a significant increase in defense spending and access to systems that until recently were out of reach, from helicopters Apache attack up to guided munitions and potentially the almighty F-35 Lightning II fighters.

Added to this is the development of a self defense industrywith production, maintenance and training plants that allow Morocco not only to acquire capabilities, but to begin to consolidate them autonomously, reducing its external dependence in the long term.

A rearmament to change the balance. Be that as it may, and despite this progress, Spain maintains a clear superiority for now in structural termsespecially in the naval field and in its technological and industrial base, which allows it to retain a significant advantage over Morocco.

However, this advantage is no longer as large as in the past, and the trend and agreement with Washington aims for a progressive convergence, driven by Moroccan economic growth and its sustained investment in military capabilities. If you like, the result is not an immediate balance, but an increasingly competitive environment in which the distance between both countries is reduced constantly.

Technology, influence and projection. Plus: Morocco’s objective is not limited to improving its military capacity, but is very possibly part of a broader strategy to increase its geopolitical weight in the Maghreb, the Sahel and the entire western Mediterranean.

American support, along with its approach to other partners like Israelreinforces this idea and ambition, allowing Rabat to position itself as a central actor in regional security and as a privileged interlocutor of the great powers in the area.

Gradual change. In short, the panorama that draw ten years view is not that of an abrupt and total break, of course, but rather that of a progressive transformation in which Morocco gains capabilities, influence and room for maneuver thanks to the US support.

In this process, Spain will continue to be the dominant actor on the military level, but it no longer operates in a static environment, but in one in which its neighbor to the south, often uncomfortable depending on the circumstances, is getting stronger constantly, slowly altering the balance in one of the most sensitive points of Europe, and nuclear from Spain.

Image | US Africa CommandNARA

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