closure

Sony has just set a date for the end of video games in physical format. At the same time it announces the closure of digital stores

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The main players in the video game industry have been looking for years to find out how to migrate from physical Blu-Ray to digital format and they already have the answer: Sony has just set the date for the death of the physical format in video games. In a brief releasethe Japanese company has announced that January 2028 will be the turning point and that all the games that come out later for its consoles will arrive only in digital format. Curiously, at the same time that they dropped that bomb, the Japanese they threw another: the closure of the PlayStation Store for PS3 and PS Vita. Definitely not the best news to start July if you are a video game lover (and you like to own what you pay for). We go in parts because it has chicha. The end of physical games on PlayStation consoles “As consumer preferences and the broader entertainment industry continue to shift from physical to digital discs, production of physical game discs for all new games released on PlayStation consoles will be discontinued beginning in January 2028. After this date, new games will be available on the PlayStation Store and at retailers in digital formats only.” Thus begins the statement from a company that continues to claim that this is a “natural direction” to adapt to consumer trends. They argue that “the overall preference for digital media significantly outweighs physical discs” and comment that they are doing gamers a favor because this decision will “allow us to align more closely with how the majority of our community prefers to access and play games today.” This news comes just a few days after we learned that a generational game like ‘GTA VI’ will not have a physical edition (at least at launch) and follows the trend of Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo that, in recent years, have invested heavily in the move to digital. There are consoles without a reader, a PS5 Pro whose reader was sold separately or a Nintendo that has launched Game Key Cards. It is undeniable that the convenience of the digital format was winning the battle. Recent estimates have put this on the table in major markets such as the United States, but the physical format has something that the digital format cannot offer: belonging. Because digital games (except those from stores like GOG) do not belong to whoever pays for them. They are user licenses, which means that today we can pay 80 euros for one, but if tomorrow whoever decides that that license is no longer valid, they can delete it. Even if you had it installed on the machine (tell that to ‘The Crew’ users). Some physical games were also paperweights that required an additional download, but the only way to own a video game was to buy a physical version that came complete on disk. With this movement, Sony gives an important blow to the possession of the product for which you have paid, but it completely destroys the second hand that is so important to access that cultural product called a video game. Sony won the PS4 generation with, among other things, that argument: the loan of video games and the free circulation of discs. And not that long ago. Because Sony announcing that it will stop “printing” discs is just that, a brutal blow to video games in physical format. Sony, along with Panasonic, was the main manufacturer of Blu-Ray discs, the one with the production chain and to which the rest of the companies have to send their games to capture them on the disc. And in the statement the company does not say: “we are going to stop manufacturing discs of our games”, but rather the “production of physical discs that will end in January 2028 for new games released on PlayStation consoles”, in general. In development…

The price you will pay will be the dismissal of 100,000 employees and the closure of more factories

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Just a year and a half ago, Volkswagen reached an agreement with the unions to lay off “only” 35,000 employees to ensure the continuity of some factories, ensuring their operation until 2030. a bad drinkbut acceptable in order to preserve the employment of many other Volkswagen employees. Today the German group has announced that this pact it’s broken. The numbers don’t work. The German magazine Manager Magazine advanced that the group’s CEO, Oliver Blume, had presented a new adjustment plan to the board of directors. The number of layoffs is the highest that the German manufacturer has ever announced: up to 100,000 layoffs worldwide, and four factories in Germany with closure on the table. The size of the problem. Volkswagen closed 2025 with more than 662,000 employees all over the world. Losing 100,000 jobs means losing almost one in six workers. As and as highlighted the agency EFEthis is the largest restructuring in the group’s 89-year history. The plants designated for closure are those in Hannover, Zwickau and Emden, all three of the Volkswagen brand, plus the Audi factory in Neckarsulm. The plan also includes a 15% reduction in investments for the next five years and a general spending cut of 11 billion euros before the end of the decade. The accounts don’t add up. The numbers for the first quarter of 2026 explain this drastic move by Volkswagen. Operating profit fell by 14% year-on-year to 2.5 billion euroswith a margin of 3.3%, while sales fell 7%. Analysts expected almost 4,000 million in operating profit. Chief Financial Officer Arno Antlitz left no room for doubt in the seriousness of the situation in the results report for the first quarter of the year: “We must radically transform our business model and achieve structural and sustainable improvements.” The group has already reduced around 29,000 positions from 2023 and cut its production capacity from 12 to 9 million vehicles per year. For management, these measures are not enough to compensate for the drop in sales. Chinese pressure and tariffs. There are two sources of pressure that have accelerated the deterioration of Volkswagen’s situation. The first and most obvious are the Chinese manufacturers. In 2025, cars made in China reached 7% of sales in the EUexceeding one million units for the first time. At the same time, European exports to China plummeted by 43%. Volkswagen, which has one of its largest markets in China, has been losing share there for years due to the unstoppable push of local Chinese brands. The second key factor comes from the opposite extreme: the United States. The tariffs that Trump has imposed on European vehicles have hit hard a group that has most of its factories in countries affected by the tariffs. Blume he recognized it at last week’s general meeting of shareholders: “Never before has the risk situation been so high.” To gain liquidity, the German manufacturer has just closed the sale of 51% of its Everllence marine engine division to Bain Capital for 7.4 billion euros. This could be just one more of future asset sales to obtain more liquidity. The union wall. As might be expected, the plan has not been well received by unions. The late 2024 agreement with IG Metall promised that there would be no factory closures or forced layoffs in Germany until at least 2030. The new plan blows up those commitments. Daniela Cavallo, president of the Volkswagen works council, and Christiane Benner, head of IG Metall, reacted with a joint statement of frontal rejection of the announced layoffs: “If these plans go ahead, we will stop them with all our forces.” On July 9, the supervisory board of the Volkswagen group will debate this workforce adjustment plan, which would affect one in every six of the company’s employees. The decisions made at that meeting will decide the future of Volkswagen. In Xataka | Volkswagen cars are no longer as popular as they used to be, so Volkswagen wants to start making… missiles Image | Volkswagen

Ninja Theory closure rumors and profound changes

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In the last Xbox Games ShowcaseNinja Theory announced ‘Senua’, the third installment of ‘Hellblade’. Eight days later, according to Bloombergthe company is negotiating its closure. They are not the only ones: at least three studios under the Xbox Game Studios umbrella would be negotiating with Microsoft to avoid closure. It is just the tip of the iceberg of an environment with traces of apocalypse at Xbox: the same Monday that the news came out, the head of Xbox Game Studios, Craig Duncan, and the chief of staff, Louise O’Connor, left the company. They are hacks in the structure of the company whose origins and consequences go back a long way. Who closes? The three studios that have been leaked so far are Compulsion Games, which released ‘South of Midnight’ in April 2025, winning a Peabody; Double Fine, founded by LucasArts veteran Tim Schafer in 2000, has recently focused on small games like ‘Keeper’ and ‘Kiln’ in the last year, following a career that includes ‘Psychonauts’, ‘Brütal Legend’ and ‘Broken Age’. Ninja Theory is the studio behind the entire ‘Hellblade’ saga, and before that, high-quality blockbusters like ‘Heavenly Sword’. As other media have also confirmed, like VGCCompulsion and Double Fine are in negotiations to buy themselves and become independent (just as Toys for Bob did in 2023, after which they announced the return of Spyro). Ninja Theory has a more complicated scenario: The studio is being closed directly by Xbox, and its only alternative would be to find an external buyer to acquire it. And in any case, independence is not an easy way out: even if the studios manage to buy themselves, they will lose many employees in the process. Who are these people. Regarding departures from the management team, Craig Duncan arrived at Xbox in 2011 and directed Rare for more than 13 years, a period in which ‘Sea of ​​Thieves’ was released and the Kinect peripheral was developed. He assumed leadership of Xbox Game Studios in October 2024, when under that umbrella there were studios such as Halo Studios, The Coalition, Playground Games, Obsidian, Ninja Theory, Compulsion Games, Double Fine and a dozen more. His duties will be temporarily assumed by Matt Booty. Louise O’Connor also came to Xbox through Rare, where she joined in 1999 as an animator. This is her second discharge: she obtained the position of chief of staff in September 2025, shortly after leaving Rare following the cancellation of ‘Everwild’. These two simultaneous departures, in the positions that mediate between the CEO and the studios, point to internal turbulence. “This cannot continue.” Less than a week ago, new Xbox CEO Asha Sharma and Matt Booty published a internal memo that was also made public in which they described the situation in the company with considerable crudeness. The fiscal year that ends June 30 will leave Xbox with a profit margin of around 3%. The division spent $20 billion on studio investments over the past five years (not counting, of course, the purchase of Activision Blizzard for 69,000 million) while its annual income fell almost 500 million in the same period. Not everything is bad management, but a situation, in general, very complicated for the sector: the company currently pays four times more for hardware components than last fall (as they all do), and that cost is expected to rise even more heading into Christmas 2027. The memo called the studio system “overextended” and admitted that Xbox had tried to “balance too many different strategies” without funding its studios enough to be competitive. “This cannot continue,” they even said. What is coming. It is expected that Xbox will announce things after the close of the fiscal year, on June 30 (the same day of the memo, in a coincidence that is difficult to see as coincidental, Bloomberg advanced that the company is going to suffer massive layoffs). Sharma said that the new Xbox will prioritize “the biggest franchises”, that is, ‘Halo’, ‘Gears of War’, ‘Fable’ or ‘The Elder Scrolls’. It is possible to think that studies with lower IPs or that minimally deviate from the mainstream They are left out of the plans. What undoubtedly increases the feeling of unleashed chaos and profound earthquakes within the company is the timing: This all takes place right after the Summer Game Fest, when Xbox presented a showcase on June 7 with very precise and careful plans, which included Ninja Theory’s own ‘Senua’, the return of ‘Fable’, the long-awaited new ‘Gears of War’… A week later, one of the studios that starred in that showcase He is negotiating his survival. In Xataka | Xbox lowers Game Pass and backs down with Call of Duty: the bet of “Everything on subscriptions” has not turned out as Microsoft expected

We have been fearing the Apocalypse for 100 days due to the closure of Hormuz. The blow is going to be given to us by a heat wave in China

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At the end of February, the clocks in the financial markets seemed to stop. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz was not a simple geopolitical skirmish; It meant amputating, from one day to the next, the main energy artery of the planet. Classical economics manuals dictated that the abrupt disappearance of 20% of the world’s crude oil would trigger industrial paralysis, widespread shortages and an imminent recession. However, more than one hundred days after the start of the blockade, Western economies are still standing and the barrel of crude oil, far from reaching the catastrophic 200 dollars that some investment funds even predicted, has been contained below the $100 barrier. We have survived what, on paper, is the greatest threat to energy security in history. The question that now resonates in the European chancelleries is unanimous: how have we achieved it and, above all, how long will the truce last? The architecture of an unexpected rescue The fact that the world has not collapsed is due to a complex network of counterweights that have absorbed the blow. The first revealing data it is provided by the agency Reuters: The production of OPEC countries has fallen this May to its lowest level since 2000 (16.13 million barrels per day) as a direct consequence of the siege of Iran. Despite this massive hole in supply, global supply has been reorganized in record time. The analyst Javier Blas unfolds in his column of Bloomberg the keys to this logistical miracle. The main lifeline, paradoxically, has arrived from Beijing. China has plunged its oil imports by ship to decade lows (nearly 40% less than last year’s average). According to Blas, this unexpected destruction of Asian demand has acted as a huge escape valve: “If Beijing were buying the same amount of oil as in the past, global inflation would be out of control.” Added to Chinese containment is a tectonic shift in energy hegemony. As documented Reutersthe United States has taken advantage of the chaos to become the largest oil exporter in the world, overtaking Russia and Saudi Arabia by shipping nearly 10.5 million barrels per day in May. Furthermore, the Gulf countries have not sat idly by. The producers They are using a network of pipelines less known through Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates that circumvent the Hormuz bottleneck, keeping some five million barrels a day alive, in addition to maintaining “hot” extraction infrastructures for an eventual rapid restart. The silent blow The fact that there are no kilometer-long lines at service stations has generated a false sense of immunity. Hormuz’s economic blow is landing, but it is doing so through the financial system. The war conflict has blown up the roadmap by Christine Lagarde and the European Central Bank (ECB), since the sustained rise in fuel prices has caused eurozone inflation to rise to 3.2% in May. Given the fear that this extra cost will permanently spread to the shopping basket, the ECB has been forced to resume raising interest rates this June, placing them at 2.25%. The true price of the Iran war is already being paid by European households and companies through more expensive mortgages and restricted credit. And the scenario continues to be a powder keg: the extreme volatility of the markets after the latest crossed attacks between the United States and Iran, which have kept Brent crude stressed above $95. The Asian thermometer: the great threat to Spain While the global macroeconomy deals with interest rates, at the local level a perfect storm is brewing for the Spanish consumer in the coming months. And the trigger will not be military, but climate. According to the forecasts of the consulting firm Tempos Energía, collected by Europa Pressthe price of electricity in Spain this summer will not depend on what happens in the Strait of Hormuz, but on the temperatures in Asia. Until now, Europe has been importing American liquefied natural gas (LNG) without much competition because China was not demanding it. However, the general director of Tempos Energía, Antonio Aceituno, warns of an imminent reversal: “When the heat arrives and the thermometer soars in Shanghai, American freighters will be divided between demand from Asia and Europe.” If the Asian market absorbs the supply to feed its air conditioning networks, Europe will be left without cheap alternatives to cover its own summer demand peaks, and with tanks at less than half capacity. The consulting firm’s forecast for Spain is severe: if China breaks into the purchasing market, the electricity bill for July and August could rise to the range of 88 to 95 euros per megawatt hour. This represents an increase of up to 40%, which “would be equivalent to paying double what was paid in 2019.” A truce with an expiration date We have managed to avoid the precipice thanks to the inertia of pre-war inventories, a historic deployment of emergency reserves and the forced reconfiguration of the global market. If diplomacy triumphs, Blas explains how the intact infrastructure of the Gulf would allow 50% of production to be recovered in a matter of days. However, trusting economic stability to an imminent diplomatic agreement is a dangerous game. Emergency reserves are not infinite and the capacity to cushion shocks has a limit. The world has shown astonishing resilience in surviving without its main oil route, but the armor is cracking. If the situation continues and summer demand tightens, the apocalypse that we avoided in spring could arrive in the form of unaffordable bills and an induced recession. The Hormuz bill, sooner or later, will have to be paid. Image | Unsplash 1 and 2 Xataka | Ukraine turned drones into hunters. A helicopter shot down in Hormuz has transformed them into a Spielberg film

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz chokes the Chinese economy. Its only energy solution is a historic pact with Putin

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“一日不见，如隔三秋” (A day without seeing you is like three autumns). Using the Russian translation of this ancient Chinese proverb, President Vladimir Putin wanted to begin his meeting with Xi Jinping. The gesture of extreme closeness was not accidental. Tiananmen Square was dressed up with a 21-gun salute, a military band and dozens of children waving flags to welcome the Russian president. On the face of it, Beijing displayed the same diplomatic theatrics and pageantry it had offered to US President Donald Trump just days earlier, as detailed Bloomberg. However, the background was diametrically opposite: if with Trump the red carpet sought to appease and choreograph stability with a volatile rival, with Putin the authority and support for a cornered partner was staged. The Chinese leader addressed his counterpart as an “old friend,” a term unusually reserved in the Party bureaucracy for highly regarded foreigners. The visit, which marks the 25th anniversary of the signing of the friendship treaty between both countries and represents Putin’s 25th trip to China, represents a vital alliance at the most critical moment of the decade. Behind the walks through the imperial gardens and the closed-door meetings, there is a suffocating urgency. The global board is burning due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz derived from the war between the United States and Iran, a blockade that has cut off Asia’s energy arteries and has turned this summit into a geopolitical lifeline. The Siberian lifeguard. The response to the crisis has a clear name on the agenda of both leaders: the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline. According to the estimatesOnce completed, this colossal 2,600-kilometer-long infrastructure will transport up to 50 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas per year from the Russian Arctic fields of Yamal to northern China, passing through Mongolia. Moscow and Beijing have already reached a “general understanding” on the project, encompassing consensus on the layout and construction methods, as stated Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov told journalists and spokesman Dmitri Peskov confirmed. Additionally, both governments have signed a legally binding supply memorandum to boost construction. But all that glitters is not gold. As newspapers such as he Financial Times and CNBCthe agreement has been stumbling over the same rock for years: the price, financing and delivery schedule. China, aware of its position of strength, demands that the rate for the new gas pipeline be equal to the price of the heavily subsidized Russian domestic market (between $120 and $130 per 1,000 cubic meters), conditions that would drastically reduce the profit margins for the Russian state giant Gazprom. Furthermore, secrecy and caution reign in Beijing: as pointed out Reuterswhen Gazprom announced the memorandum last September, China did not issue any official statement on the matter. And even if the agreement is closed now, Russian salvation will not be immediate; from the research unit of China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) has already has warned that gas projects of this magnitude require at least eight to ten years for their construction. The Hormuz factor: a geopolitical accelerator. If the gas pipeline had been on the drawing board for years, the Third Gulf War has stepped on the accelerator. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a real cataclysm in the Indo-Pacific region. This maritime blockade has suddenly interrupted the arrival of half of China’s oil imports and almost a third of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply. The consequences they have been immediate: The Asian giant has already reported a rebound in inflation and an abrupt weakening of its domestic economic activity during the month of April. Faced with maritime vulnerability, securing a land supply route is vital for Beijing’s survival. As experts in German Welleinstability in the Gulf has triggered China’s desire for a pipelined energy flow that is immune to Western sanctions or American naval blockades. Still, China faces this crisis with homework done. Far from improvising, Beijing took advantage of the previous years to buy heavily sanctioned crude oil from countries such as Russia, Venezuela and Iran. Thanks to this, China today has colossal strategic reserves, also supported by a fleet of Iranian oil tankers that function as a floating warehouse off its coasts. A deeply strained and asymmetrical relationship. Although official statements speak of “mutual respect” and a “limitless” partnership, economic reality depicts a deeply unequal relationship. President Putin himself has declared that Russia and China want to be equal partners, but the gap is evident: the Chinese economy is almost eight times larger and much more technologically advanced. Without China’s money and technology, the very survival of the Russian regime would be in question. The data is devastating. According to him Financial TimesRussia has suffered a 38% year-on-year drop in its energy export revenues. To survive Western isolation, Moscow has turned China into its lifeline. At the end of last year, more than 99% of bilateral trade was settled in rubles and yuan to circumvent the SWIFT system, and Beijing currently supplies 90% of imports of sanctioned Russian technology, including semiconductors, microelectronics and dual-use goods, essential for its war machine. For his part, Xi Jinping carries out a delicate diplomatic balancing act. His meeting with Putin comes just days after his summit with Donald Trump. This synchronicity allows Russia a key tactical move: as reported EuronewsPutin’s trip serves to receive direct information and exchange views with Beijing on recent negotiations with Washington. Simultaneously, China does not hesitate to invoke its “Blocking Rules” to order its domestic refiners to ignore US sanctions and continue buying Iranian crude. But at the same time, as the newspaper highlights Asahi Shimbunthe Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed the purchase of 200 Boeing aircraft just after Trump’s visit, in a clear gesture to stabilize its economic ties with the West. A new world epicenter. The current crisis and the negotiations in Beijing certify an irreversible paradigm shift. The entry into operation of “Power of Siberia 2” is not just a commercial agreement, it is the chronicle of an announced breakup. … Read more

We know that all things are in crisis due to the closure of Hormuz, but the aluminum thing is truly worrying

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The world economy has come face to face with a scenario that no one wanted to foresee. The global aluminum market is facing what analysts and experts already classify as a “black swan” event. The Third Gulf War has caused a drastic closure in shipping routes, triggering a supply crisis of historic proportions. An unprecedented crisis. “The magnitude of the supply crisis that we are seeing in the aluminum market is probably the largest single supply crisis that a base metals market has suffered in the post-2000 era,” Nick Snowdon, head of metals and mining research at the trading firm Mercuria, summarized it forcefully. in statements collected by the agency Reuters. And the numbers support the alarm: the Persian Gulf region has a smelting capacity of 7 million metric tons annually. That is, almost 9% of this year’s global supply is at the epicenter of a war conflict. A logistical bottleneck. The implications of this blockage go far beyond financial speculation, as aluminum is the backbone of vital industries such as transportation, construction and packaging. Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Demand Analyst in StoneXfocuses on logistical asphyxiation. According to the expert, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz does not have an easy solution, since “there are no other maritime routes that have a similar capacity.” This disruption, Scott-Gray explains, has the potential to eliminate up to 50% of the Middle East’s aluminum supply, equivalent to a direct 5% hit to global production. In Europe, the impact has already jumped from offices to factories. According to the specialized portal Miningconsumers in the construction and transportation sector are being squeezed. In Rotterdam, the physical premium (the extra cost paid above the market price to ensure delivery) for aluminum extrusion ingots has more than doubled since the start of the war, rising from $530 to $1,100 per metric ton. And the perfect storm arrives. The market has reacted with panic. According to data from Reutersfear of shortages triggered prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) to a four-year high, reaching $3,672 per ton in mid-April. Since the start of hostilities, the reference price has risen by 14%, how it complements Financial Times. What follows this crisis is an imminent structural deficit. Mercuria estimates that the market will face a minimum deficit of 2 million tons by the end of the year, an alarming figure if we consider that visible global inventories are barely around one and a half million tons. The West is particularly vulnerable. The United States imported almost 22% of its aluminum from the Middle East last year, while Europe relied on the region for 18.5% of its imports. Safety nets are failing: Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA) has been forced to declare status of “force majeure” in several European contracts after suffering an Iranian attack on its foundry in the United Arab Emirates. Simultaneously, Kubal, the only Swedish foundry (owned by the Russian Rusal), has mysteriously stopped its deliveries in Europefurther straining short-term availability. The “kings” of chaos. This aluminum shock does not occur in a vacuum; It is the symptom of a greater illness. Daniel Yergin, vice president of S&P Global, warned in Bloomberg that we are facing “the biggest energy disruption we have ever seen.” The impact transcends oil, affecting natural gas, fertilizers and metals. Aluminum production is extremely energy intensive, so rising fuel prices are driving up the costs of foundries around the world. However, in a troubled river, fishermen gain. While manufacturers suffer, the giants of commodity trading are making a move. He Financial Times reveals that the Swiss firm Mercuria has begun aggressive expansion, investing more than $3 billion in base metals. In a strategic shift, they have gone from simply financing shipments to purchasing real assets, acquiring 25% of an aluminum smelter in Indonesia. “We have both the appetite and the capacity to do more,” he assured the British newspaper Kostas Bintashead of metals at Mercuria, confirming that the company is firmly committed to this metal in the midst of the chaos. The clock is ticking. The current crisis has mutated, In the words of Yergin to Bloombergin a clash between two blockades: American economic pressure versus Tehran’s ability to “wage war on the world economy”. The paradox is that this energy and logistics bottleneck will end up accelerating the transition to electric vehicles and will force countries to redesign their energy security. But in the short term, reality is stubborn. As the analysis concludes ReutersMiddle Eastern aluminum simply cannot be replaced overnight. China, the world’s largest producer, has a strict legal annual production limit of 45 million tonnes, and neither the United States nor Europe have enough idle capacity they can turn on to salvage the situation. The “black swan” has landed, and the global industry will have to learn to survive in a scenario where aluminum, once abundant, has become a treasure caught in the crossfire. Image | Magnificent Xataka | Iran has pulled out a “trick” to sell to China while avoiding the US: turning the ocean into its secret gas station

The closure of Hormuz is the symptom of a much more threatening problem: the straits are no longer reliable

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The world watches the Strait of Hormuz waiting for a sign of normality that does not come. After weeks of conflict, the official “reopening” narrative faces a devastating mathematical and logistical reality. What we are witnessing is not a temporary blip in trade, but, as experts warnthe confirmation that the system of “bottlenecks” that supported the global economy has been definitively broken. At first glance, the news of a ceasefire and the “reopening” of Hormuz should have reassured the markets. However, the reality on the ground is very different. Cyril Widdershoven, analyst OilPricedescribes this supposed normality as a “mirage.” While under normal conditions the strait registers between 120 and 140 daily transits, data from April 2026 show days with just three boats. Why don’t we see the total disaster on our streets yet? The answer lies in the physics of shipping. As we have already explaineda supertanker moves at the speed of a bicycle. The crude oil we consume today is the one that “pedaled” through the ocean before the conflict broke out. According to the data of Kpler206 million barrels have already “vanished” from the market in just 40 days. Logistical inertia has kept us in a false calm, but the shock wave is about to reach us. The report of Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)titled “The Strait of Hormuz in 8 Charts“, confirms that the strait has been “effectively closed” since March 2. Although Tehran announced an opening on April 17, the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) turned back just 24 hours later, threatening to attack any ship that collaborates with “the enemy.” In Xataka It is true that we have not yet noticed 100% the effect of the closure of Hormuz. The reasons are not at all optimistic The end of trust and the petrodollar What makes this crisis different from Suez is the trust factor. Analyst Widdershoven points out that the system It is not broken by geography, but by the perception of risk. When insurers withdraw “war risk” coverage, the strait ceases to exist economically, even though it is physically open. But the impact goes beyond the price of gasoline. Aaron Brown, in Bloombergissues a historic warning: “The war in Iran has just broken the petrodollar.” The 1974 pact, where the US guaranteed security in the Gulf in exchange for oil being sold in dollars and that money being reinvested in US debt, has collapsed. Countries like India or Türkiye are selling their US Treasury bonds to obtain liquidity and pay for increasingly expensive crude oil. For the first time in decades, central banks hold more gold than US bonds. Even if full peace were signed tomorrow, a return to normality is a technical chimera. Jacob Judah, in Financial Timesdescribes a “demining nightmare.” Iran has seeded the strait with sophisticated mines that can be camouflaged as rocks or buried in the seabed. Clearing a safe lane just a mile wide could take weeks; clear the strait completely, months. And, as Judah points out, the US Navy has neglected its mine warfare capability for decades. On the other hand, the recovery capacity of inventories is discouraging. Fatih Birol, director of the IEA, has declared to Reuters that this crisis is “more serious than those of 1973, 1979 and 2022 combined.” The IEA report from April estimates the collapse of global supply at 10.1 million of barrels daily. However, even producing an extra million barrels a day, it will take the world two years to recover pre-conflict inventory levels. Terrestrial alternatives are not the solution either. According to Holly Ellyatt for the CNBCthe pipelines that cross Saudi Arabia (East-West) and the UAE (Fujairah) only have the capacity to absorb between 3.5 and 5.5 million barrels per day, a fraction of the 20 million that normally flow through Hormuz. Behind the barrel numbers there is an invisible human drama. Wired tells the situation of 20,000 sailors trapped in the Gulf. Stories like that of PK Vijay, an Indian sailor on an abandoned ship, show how the complexity of maritime registration leaves workers in legal limbo, without pay and without the possibility of disembarking in a war zone. On a legal level, the situation is just as swampy. As the West condemns Iran, Maryam Jamshidi in The Nation argues that, technically, the US and Israel are the ones who have violated international law with their “war of aggression.” Iran, having not ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), has a legal basis to regulate passage through its territorial waters and collect tolls, something that Western powers describe as “economic hostage-taking.” {“videoId”:”x8j6422″,”autoplay”:false,”title”:”Declassified video of the clash between Russian fighters and the American drone”, “tag”:”united states”, “duration”:”42″} Suez was the warning, but Hormuz is confirmation that the era of just-in-time logistics and cheap, frictionless energy is over. The global economy has discovered, in the worst possible way, that its heart continues to beat to the rhythm of slow ships. As the analysis concludes OilPriceHormuz is no longer just a step; It is a tectonic fault. The world that emerges from this crisis will be one of “resilience over efficiency”, where trade will be more regional, more redundant and, inevitably, much more expensive. The price of security has become permanently embedded in the price of oil, and with it, the future of the world economy. Image |NASA GSFC Xataka |The US resurrected the “right of prey” to capture a ship from China: the problem is that China has taken note (function() { window._JS_MODULES = window._JS_MODULES || {}; var headElement = document.getElementsByTagName(‘head’)(0); if (_JS_MODULES.instagram) { var instagramScript = document.createElement(‘script’); instagramScript.src=”https://platform.instagram.com/en_US/embeds.js”; instagramScript.async = true; instagramScript.defer = true; headElement.appendChild(instagramScript); – The news The closure of Hormuz is the symptom of a much more threatening problem: the straits are no longer reliable was originally published in Xataka by Alba Otero .

Delaying the closure of a single plant forces us to redesign the entire energy map of Spain

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Right in the middle of a relentless political and business battle to extend the life of the Spanish atomic park, the harsh reality of the market has imposed itself. While top executives discuss the long-term future, the present has hit the table: the owner of the Almaraz II nuclear power plant notified the Nuclear Safety Council (CSN) of an unscheduled shutdown of its reactor and its decoupling from the electrical grid. The alarms did not go off due to a security problem. In fact, the incident was classified as level 0 (no significance for security) on the international INES scale, to which we have had access. The real reason was purely economic and motivated by causes related to the electricity market. As explained The Extremadura Newspaper, The recent succession of storms triggered renewable production —sinking electricity prices— which, added to an “unaffordable tax burden” that represents more than 75% of its variable costs, made it completely unfeasible to keep the reactor on. The recent pulse: from disconnection to extension This disconnection collides head-on with the intense corporate movements of recent weeks. At the end of October, Iberdrola, Endesa and Naturgy presented to the Executive a formal request to postpone until June 2030 the closure of Almaraz, whose two reactors were scheduled to be disconnected for 2027 and 2028. But the ambition of the sector does not stop in Cáceres. According to Five Daysthe president of Iberdrola, Ignacio Sánchez Galán, has confirmed that they will request the expansion of other plants in the future, ensuring that “most of them can reach 60 and even 80 years.” This position is supported by technical and logistical arguments from the industry. As detailed in The Economistthe CEO of Endesa, José Bogas, aspires to prolong “in round numbers about 10 more years” the entire Spanish nuclear park. Bogas argues that it does not make logistical sense to proceed with the complex dismantling of two groups of the same plant on different dates (2027 and 2028). Meanwhile, the CSN is already analyzing the documentation to issue its mandatory report, foreseeably in summer, as reported in a press release from the regulator itself. The possible extension of Almaraz has opened a huge gap between two irreconcilable visions of the energy transition. In the block of those who defend extending atomic life, economic and labor arguments set the pace. According to the statements of Ignacio Sánchez Galán collected by Vozpópulinuclear power plants are a key element in reducing the price of electricity. In fact, the president of Iberdrola recalls that European countries that lack this type of energy, such as Italy and Germany, pay “about 20 euros more” per megawatt hour for electricity compared to Spain and France. Added to this defense of competitiveness is the warning about the direct impact on the final consumer’s pocket. A recent report from the OBS Business School alert that if Almaraz closesthe inevitable dependence on gas would increase the electricity bill by around 23% for households – between 150 and 250 euros more per year – and up to 35% for industry. Beyond the receipt, there is the territorial factor. The College of Industrial Engineers, in statements to The Energy Newspaperremember that this plant not only generates 7% of the electricity in all of Spain, complying with the highest international safety standards (WANO 1), but is also a vital economic engine to sustain 4,000 direct and indirect jobs that stop depopulation in the region. However, against this position stands a solid wall of detractors who see the extension as an imminent danger for the green transition. A joint investigation by the Rey Juan Carlos University (URJC) and the Polytechnic University of Catalonia (UPC), prepared on behalf of Greenpeaceconcludes that extending Almaraz for just three years would mean “momentary relief, structural damage.” Researchers calculate that this decision would cost consumers a cumulative extra cost of 3,831 million euros between now and 2033 and would stop up to 26,129 million euros in investments destined for new clean energies. From Greenpeace they also point to the so-called “plug effect”: since nuclear is an inflexible technology that produces fixed gear regardless of demand, it often forces us to disconnect or waste renewable energy—free and clean—in times of high sun or wind. This situation generates a climate of enormous concern in the green sector. In an interview with InfoLibrePedro Fresco, general director of the Valencian renewable employer association Avaesen, warns that granting a “mini-extension” of three years would be the worst possible scenario. In his opinion, this movement would send a message of total uncertainty to investors, threatening to stop the development of future renewable projects in its tracks. The “Domino Effect”: rewriting the energy map The true background of this battle is that Almaraz is not an isolated piece. As several experts warn he Vigo Lighthouse and andl Newspaper of Extremaduradelaying the closure of the Cáceres plant would unleash an unstoppable “domino effect” throughout the national territory. If Almaraz is delayed to 2030, its closure would coincide in time with that of Ascó I (Tarragona) and Cofrentes (Valencia). The electricity companies assume that the Government would also have to postpone these closures to avoid overlapping the gigantic and complex work of dismantling four reactors simultaneously. This would also force the closures of Ascó II, Vandellós II and Trillo to be pushed well beyond 2035, blowing up the current National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC). The final decision is in the hands of the Executive, which for the moment maintains its position. The Government has marked three non-negotiable red lines to accept any change: that it guarantees radiological safety, security of supply and, above all, that it does not cost consumers an extra euro or imply tax reductions for electricity companies. And this is where the circle closes. As Galán insists on Vozpópulithe plants bear an enormous tax burden of “30-35 euros per megawatt hour.” Without a tax reduction, electricity companies threaten economic viability; but without profitability, it is the market itself that, as … Read more

The closure of QatarEnergy shoots up the price by 45%, reviving fears of 2022

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Just when Europe breathed a sigh of relief, convinced of having stabilized its energy supply after the traumatic cut of ties with Putin’s Russia, the specter of the 2022 crisis has materialized again. A new “Black Monday” has shaken international markets, but this time the epicenter is not in Eastern Europe, but in the waters of the Persian Gulf. An unprecedented escalation of war in the Middle East has culminated with the temporary closure of the largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in the world. Europe reaches this moment in a position of vulnerability, since the gas market has mutated: it has ceased to be a simple raw material and has become a “high-speed financial asset” dominated by volatility. Added to this is that the continent has changed its dependency of Russian gas pipelines by methane tankers from the US and Qatar, today facing unusually low gas stores. The spark that set the markets on fire jumped on March 2, 2026. The state-owned company QatarEnergy issued a statement announcing the cessation of production of LNG and associated products after suffering military attacks on its strategic facilities in Ras Laffan and the industrial city of Mesaieed. According to the Qatari Ministry of Defense collected by Al Jazeerathe country was attacked by drones launched from Iran. One hit a water tank in Mesaieed and another hit an energy facility in Ras Laffan. Although the toll is about 20 injured and “minimal damage” after a rain of dozens of drones and missiles against the country, the decision to paralyze operations in Ras Laffan – which manages a capacity of 77 million tons per year—has been devastating. The chaos, however, not limited to Qatar. We are facing a regional domino effect. Saudi Arabia has been forced to temporarily close units of its giant Ras Tanura refinery after Iranian drones were intercepted. In parallel, Iraq has stopped the flow of a key pipeline to Türkiye for security reasons, and the Israeli government has ordered Chevron to halt production from its huge Leviathan gas field. The energy system faces a logistical problem There are some 150 ships paralyzed in the areawhich means an effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuzthe bottleneck through which a fifth of the world’s maritime oil and gas trade transits. The situation is so serious that, according to the Financial Timeshalf of the world’s largest marine insurers will suspend their war risk coverage in the area, completely deterring cargo ships. But the paralysis of QatarEnergy has a deeper reading. For geopolitical analyst Bachar El-Halabi, consulted through their social networksthis is not just a supply shock, but a clever maneuver. By stopping production, Doha internationalizes the conflict: sends the message that it will not be a simple passive game board and puts the pressure directly on its partners in Washington, Europe and Asia. The macroeconomic impact is already visible. From the British environment They point to widespread falls in the stock markets -with the Stoxx Europe 600 losing almost 2%— and a flight of investors towards gold. As stated by Simone Tagliapietra, analyst at the Bruegel think tank cited by Bloomberg: “The threat to security of supply is immediate (…) we are facing a new scenario.” So, is the price of gas going to rise? The market’s immediate reaction has been one of true panic. The reference gas contract in Europe (Dutch TTF) recorded intraday increases of more than 50%. According to data collected by The Economistthe megawatt hour jumped sharply from below 40 euros up to touching 47.5 euros. At the same time, Brent oil rose 9%, hovering around $80 per barrel. The European citizen might ask: “If only 10% of the LNG that reaches Europe passes through the Strait of Hormuz, why does it affect us so much?” The energy expert Joaquín Coronado sums it up perfectly: Gas markets do not operate based on isolated physical volumes, but rather based on global prices. If Asia suddenly loses the Qatari tap, it will compete fiercely with checkbook against Europe for shipments from the United States or Africa. In fact, Coronado warns that the consulting firm ICIS projects that a closure 90 days in Hormuz would raise the TTF up to €92/MWh. However, in the midst of the noise, analytical voices ask for calm. The columnist of Bloomberg Javier Blas he remembered on his social networkssupported by the economic journalist Miquel Roig, who although a 45% rise is scary in the headlines, the current ones €46/MWh They are nothing compared to the absolute record of €345/MWh in the summer of 2022. As Blas states: “As always, putting the wide angle lens on helps.” Although we are far from historical highs, the current situation finds Europe unprotected. Joaquin Coronado provides worrying information: European gas storages are at 30%7.5 points below the 2025 level. In Xataka we explain it with the phenomenon of backwardation: since gas in the future was cheaper than current gas, it was not worth it for companies to fill their warehouses. This price spike has direct and immediate consequences. Crowned already advance that the price of electricity in the Spanish wholesale market (OMIE) will reach €106.6/MWh in tomorrow’s peak hours. For intensive industries (such as chemicals, fertilizers or ceramics), the profitability threshold usually is among the 50 and 60 €/MWh. If prices stagnate there, we could see a new wave of factory closures and a rebound in inflation. On this board, Spain lives its own paradox. Although it has regasification plants and ships on its coasts, it functions as an “energy island.” Our country lacks sufficient interconnections (pipes through the Pyrenees) to pump all that gas to Germany or Central Europe, preventing Spain from serving as a total lifeline for the continent. The closure of the QatarEnergy plant serves as a stark reminder of current energy geopolitics. Europe believed it had shielded its system by becoming independent of piped gas from Russia, but it simply has replaced one vulnerability with another: dependence on sea routes and American and Qatari … Read more

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz already points to gasoline at two euros/liter

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Unpredictable, unexpected and extreme impact. There are three characteristics that define what Nassim TalebLebanese philosopher, mathematician and essayist, pointed out to explain the “black swan theory”. With it he tries to explain what position to take in the face of such an inexplicable event of which we cannot understand its consequences. The theory takes its cue from the poet Juvenal, who once spoke of “a rare bird on earth, and very similar to a black swan“, a phrase that makes it clear that there was a time when it was believed that the swan, invariably, must be white because a black one had never been discovered. The phrase, in fact, was popular in England centuries ago. For Western Europe, swans were white. Spot. But a Dutch expedition at the end of the 17th century in Australia found that the black swan did indeed exist, which forever changed the knowledge we had on this subject. It was an unexpected, unpredictable event whose impact was extreme in its branch. Nacho Rabadán, general director of CEEES (Spanish Confederation of Service Station Employers), the most representative association of the sector, rescues this theory to point out what can happen with a constant block of the Strait of Hormuz. “Whenever there are problems in the Middle East, there is speculation about a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz and whenever that possibility is on the table, the price of oil rises. If Hormuz were really closed, we would be talking about a black swan, there would be an immediate and violent reaction in the price of oil and we would be in a scenario similar to that of the spring of 2022 with the invasion of Ukraine,” Rabadán explains to ABC. Gasoline at two euros/liter If the prices of the first days of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are reached, we would be talking about gasoline at a sustained price of between 1.80 and 2.00 euros/liter. At that time, Europe got to work to contain the impact on homes, mitigated in our country with one of subsidy of 20 cents/liter that did not end up stopping the rise in price and which, in fact, came to be used as means to attract clients according to the CNMC. Those days when OPEC maneuvered to keep the price of oil above $80/barrel seems far away. It even reached $130/barrel. But now they seem more alive than ever. The Strait of Hormuz is a key passage for energy for much of the world. It is an enclave of high tension, where the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf narrow to leave just a passage of between 60 and 100 kilometers for ships loaded with oil. For Iran, Oman, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, controlling the passage of ships is key. since two weeksthe traffic is committed and with the attack by the United States and Israel on Iranand the country’s response to neighboring countries with US bases, the closure seems confirmed. A closure that has caught some 240 ships stopped in the middle of a historic traffic jam. Of them, Bloomberg The number of detained ships loaded with the precious commodity is estimated at 40 supertankers. The impact on the oil futures market was immediate once the attack became known but, for now, the price per barrel is close to 73 euros/unit (a few days ago it was around 65 dollars/barrel). The impact should be felt in the coming days if the fight becomes entrenched and Hormuz remains closed. For now, the price of gasoline has already risen slightly but the figures we find at the pumps will be, in the opinion of analystsmuch lower than we can expect in a few days. With the Ukrainian War and the Russia’s exit from the market (legal) of fuel, the price of gasoline shot up to 2.15 euros/liter and diesel to 2.10 euros/liter. The fear, of course, is not that only the price of fuel will skyrocket. Increasing its price impacts a general rise in prices since transportation is much more expensive. In fact, indirectly, not only the closure of Hormuz to the passage of oil can make products more expensive. Have to border the entire African coast to reach Europe to avoid attacks by some and others would raise the final bill. Both because of the extra fuel spent and the higher cost of keeping a ship traveling for more than 10 days, which extends the route in traffic between Asia and Europe. Photo | Marek Studzinski and Glenn Fawcett, Gieling, Rob In Xataka | Spain was supposed to raise diesel in 2026. It was supposed

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