We have been fearing the Apocalypse for 100 days due to the closure of Hormuz. The blow is going to be given to us by a heat wave in China

At the end of February, the clocks in the financial markets seemed to stop. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz was not a simple geopolitical skirmish; It meant amputating, from one day to the next, the main energy artery of the planet. Classical economics manuals dictated that the abrupt disappearance of 20% of the world’s crude oil would trigger industrial paralysis, widespread shortages and an imminent recession. However, more than one hundred days after the start of the blockade, Western economies are still standing and the barrel of crude oil, far from reaching the catastrophic 200 dollars that some investment funds even predicted, has been contained below the $100 barrier. We have survived what, on paper, is the greatest threat to energy security in history. The question that now resonates in the European chancelleries is unanimous: how have we achieved it and, above all, how long will the truce last? The architecture of an unexpected rescue The fact that the world has not collapsed is due to a complex network of counterweights that have absorbed the blow. The first revealing data it is provided by the agency Reuters: The production of OPEC countries has fallen this May to its lowest level since 2000 (16.13 million barrels per day) as a direct consequence of the siege of Iran. Despite this massive hole in supply, global supply has been reorganized in record time. The analyst Javier Blas unfolds in his column of Bloomberg the keys to this logistical miracle. The main lifeline, paradoxically, has arrived from Beijing. China has plunged its oil imports by ship to decade lows (nearly 40% less than last year’s average). According to Blas, this unexpected destruction of Asian demand has acted as a huge escape valve: “If Beijing were buying the same amount of oil as in the past, global inflation would be out of control.” Added to Chinese containment is a tectonic shift in energy hegemony. As documented Reutersthe United States has taken advantage of the chaos to become the largest oil exporter in the world, overtaking Russia and Saudi Arabia by shipping nearly 10.5 million barrels per day in May. Furthermore, the Gulf countries have not sat idly by. The producers They are using a network of pipelines less known through Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates that circumvent the Hormuz bottleneck, keeping some five million barrels a day alive, in addition to maintaining “hot” extraction infrastructures for an eventual rapid restart. The silent blow The fact that there are no kilometer-long lines at service stations has generated a false sense of immunity. Hormuz’s economic blow is landing, but it is doing so through the financial system. The war conflict has blown up the roadmap by Christine Lagarde and the European Central Bank (ECB), since the sustained rise in fuel prices has caused eurozone inflation to rise to 3.2% in May. Given the fear that this extra cost will permanently spread to the shopping basket, the ECB has been forced to resume raising interest rates this June, placing them at 2.25%. The true price of the Iran war is already being paid by European households and companies through more expensive mortgages and restricted credit. And the scenario continues to be a powder keg: the extreme volatility of the markets after the latest crossed attacks between the United States and Iran, which have kept Brent crude stressed above $95. The Asian thermometer: the great threat to Spain While the global macroeconomy deals with interest rates, at the local level a perfect storm is brewing for the Spanish consumer in the coming months. And the trigger will not be military, but climate. According to the forecasts of the consulting firm Tempos Energía, collected by Europa Pressthe price of electricity in Spain this summer will not depend on what happens in the Strait of Hormuz, but on the temperatures in Asia. Until now, Europe has been importing American liquefied natural gas (LNG) without much competition because China was not demanding it. However, the general director of Tempos Energía, Antonio Aceituno, warns of an imminent reversal: “When the heat arrives and the thermometer soars in Shanghai, American freighters will be divided between demand from Asia and Europe.” If the Asian market absorbs the supply to feed its air conditioning networks, Europe will be left without cheap alternatives to cover its own summer demand peaks, and with tanks at less than half capacity. The consulting firm’s forecast for Spain is severe: if China breaks into the purchasing market, the electricity bill for July and August could rise to the range of 88 to 95 euros per megawatt hour. This represents an increase of up to 40%, which “would be equivalent to paying double what was paid in 2019.” A truce with an expiration date We have managed to avoid the precipice thanks to the inertia of pre-war inventories, a historic deployment of emergency reserves and the forced reconfiguration of the global market. If diplomacy triumphs, Blas explains how the intact infrastructure of the Gulf would allow 50% of production to be recovered in a matter of days. However, trusting economic stability to an imminent diplomatic agreement is a dangerous game. Emergency reserves are not infinite and the capacity to cushion shocks has a limit. The world has shown astonishing resilience in surviving without its main oil route, but the armor is cracking. If the situation continues and summer demand tightens, the apocalypse that we avoided in spring could arrive in the form of unaffordable bills and an induced recession. The Hormuz bill, sooner or later, will have to be paid. Image | Unsplash 1 and 2 Xataka | Ukraine turned drones into hunters. A helicopter shot down in Hormuz has transformed them into a Spielberg film

Colombia’s archaeologists have been fearing looting for years. Now they add a major threat: Guaqueros influencers

The Colombian Institute of Anthropology and History (ICANH) launched A statement To celebrate a relevant finding for researchers studying the country’s history: 114 archaeological pieces, especially ceramics, discovered in the south of Huilain the Andean region. So far nothing striking. The funny thing is that these treasures were not found anthropologists or archaeologists, but agents of the National Police and the Attorney General’s Office. Nor were they extracted from an ancient indigenous grave, a pre -Hispanic necropolis or A cave unexplored. No. The pieces were in the houses of two Influencers. It is the last example of a problem that worries the authorities and Colombian archaeologists: the rise of Influencers Guaqueros. Network slopes. Huila’s is just one more example of a phenomenon that has called attention of the Colombian press And he has done Jump alarms Among the defenders of the country’s archaeological heritage: the guaquería through the networks. Or otherwise, the people who are dedicated to lounge deposits and presume the process and the results through Tiktok or other platforms. It is concerned about the damage that they can cause to the Colombian heritage during their excavations, rudimentary and without the supervision of professional archaeologists and anthropologists; But worry about the speaker they find on the networks, which allows them to spread their activity and attract the attention of possible buyers or followers willing to point out the location of other deposits. @Laboyanos.com They capture guaqueros “influencers” in Saladoblanco Huila. They seized 144 archaeological pieces. In an operation carried out in the last hours in the rural area of ​​this municipality, the authorities managed to capture two known men in social networks for making Guaqueria and publishing the findings on their social networks. According to the report, 144 archaeological pieces and a replica were seized that the subjects allegedly passed the community and their followers. According to research, men promoted the looting and illicit traffic of archaeological goods through their publications, because in videos and photographs they were seen taking the assets of their original context, which caused the loss of invaluable information about the history of those objects and pre -Hispanic cultures to which they belonged. #Saladoblancohuila #Huilacolombia🇨🇴 #Guaqueros #Guaquerosencolombia #archeology #Laboyanoscom ♬ Original sound – Laboyanos.com Is it a new phenomenon? Yes. And no. The guaquería itself is not something new. The looting of indigenous graves in search of treasures It can go back To the colonial era, although there are those who point out that the boom of the guaquería would arrive much later, between the end of the 19th and early twentieth centuries. During a time of fact the search for treasures in The guacas (The graves of the ancient indigenous people) became a key activity for the economy of places like Quindó. Its history is extensive enough to Your approachlegacy and impact has varied over time. The guaqueros did not always seek their personal enrichment and in a way they played a key role in the history of archeology. “If it had not existed at the beginning of the 20th century, we would not have San Agustín or Teyuna,” I recently recognized to The country Alhena Caicedo, from ICANH. “At first what they did was find where the great deposits were. In the 19th it was the one that allowed, among other things, that archeology appeared.” What is new is that guaqueros use platforms like Tiktok to show their work, share their findings and disseminate an activity whose impact on heritage They already warn archaeologists. Huila’s is a clear example. According to Incahthe Influencers to those who withdrew the 144 pieces “promoted the looting and illicit traffic of archaeological goods through their publications.” “They were recorded by damaging and looting the goods and then making it public.” Is it common? In An article About the phenomenon published in March, Time He speaks of “hundreds” of videos disseminated over the last years, some with millions of reproductions and that show that the problem has spread to regions such as Antioquia, Huila, Caldas or Cundinamarca. Not just that. The newspaper ensures that between 2020 and 2024 the ICANH identified 13 accounts (some with several hundred thousand followers) related to the guaquería. “Irreparable damage”. What means and authorities do so much attention to the subject is explained for a simple reason: the guaqueros presume from the ceramics they find during their campaigns, but often when they are extracted by a valuable source of information for experts. After all, professional archaeologists obtain data from both the vessels themselves and their surroundings. “The problem with guaquería and improper extraction is that people do not know that the value of each piece is not only in itself, but especially in the context in which it is found,” Underline ICANH director. “The looting of archaeological pieces constitutes irreparable damage to the reconstruction and understanding of the past of the different human groups that occupied our territory,” insist From the Colombian Institute. “This practice produces irreversible losses of unique information about archaeological objects and its sites of origin.” With each looting, experts emphasize, stubble on the study of society, economy, religion and culture of indigenous people. “It’s not about our roots”. In videos you can see guaqueros manipulating mud vessels, necklaces or even bones, pieces that can lose part of their historical value if they are extracted rudimentary and without the supervision of professionals. “Data on the history and rituals of the indigenous peoples who inhabited these lands are being lost. It is not only about objects, but of knowledge about our roots,” warns Juan Pablo Ospina, coordinator of the ICANH Archeology Group in an interview in Huila Diario. Beyond the impact it may have for Colombian history, the looting of heritage can lead to legal consequences, such as warns The ICANH, who recalls that Law 397 of 1997 establishes that the pieces with archaeological value are “unattainable, imprescriptible and inalienable.” “Its alteration, undue manipulation, marketing or unauthorized export can generate irreversible effects and carry economic sanctions of up to 500 … Read more

We have been fearing the arrival of the ‘Beast of the East’ a week and in the end an Atlantic front has sneaked into the squad

In recent days, the big topic of weather conversation has been the ‘East beast‘. Many things have been said: from Nieves generalized throughout the country to a simple decrease in temperatures. What we did not expect was the “extraordinary turn” that the situation has taken. What do we talk about when we talk about the ‘Beast of the East’? As we explained yesterdaybeyond the controversy by name, the phenomenon is very simple: a mass of polar air that takes advantage of an Atlantic blocking situation to move from the northeast of the European continent to the southwest. That is, towards us. From ‘beast’ a ‘bestiecilla’. Unlike the ‘Beast’ of 2018the mass that was approaching had no capacity to form a cold and snow storm worthy of that name. However, since these situations are rare and difficult to model, there were many doubts and uncertainties. Beyond that We were going to notice the closeness of that mass of cold airnobody was very clear about what was going to happen. The unknown is clearing. On the one hand, the mass of air has started doing something that was as far as possible: cycloogenesis. These types of masses are very dry, but on their way to the southwest they can generate cold danas or storms. On the other, an Atlantic Front It has sneaked by the northwest and is on the way to the Southeast leaving generalized rains throughout the Peninsula (less on the Mediterranean coast and the Balearic Islands). And what will happen? The interaction of the two phenomena will leave a lot of snow in the Pyrenees (already very low levels). The front will leave some water in most of the country. However, the great turn is that the instability that the front is creating will help moderate the cold peaks. That does not change the general image (it will be colder than usual), but it does make The worst forecasts are diluted Between the rain. In fact, as the front passes the temperatures will tend to rise. Be that as it may, care in the north third: snow, fog and ice will roast a few days between us. Image | ECMWF In Xataka | The Arctic is living a very anomalous situation: temperatures above zero in the middle of winter and a 30º thermal anomaly

Log In

Forgot password?

Forgot password?

Enter your account data and we will send you a link to reset your password.

Your password reset link appears to be invalid or expired.

Log in

Privacy Policy

Add to Collection

No Collections

Here you'll find all collections you've created before.