To no one’s surprise, the fanciful tunnel that aspires to join the Strait of Gibraltar under the sea will not be ready by 20230

The idea of ​​connecting Europe and Africa with a direct channel that allows us to do without ships and planes is so attractive, so damn sexy, that it takes more than a century warming the imagination of engineers. The same time they have been seeing the Strait of Gibraltar as the ideal point for a Spain-Morocco tunnel. After decades of idling, in recent years the project seemed gain momentumat least as far as the political sphere and the public interest. A few months ago even transcended that one of the leading companies in tunnel boring machines sees the infrastructure as technically viable. He hype around the tunnel it grew so much (and so strong) that there were those who trusted that the 2030 Soccer World Cupcelebrated mainly in Spain, Morocco and Portugal, it would serve you of ultimate lever. They were even read headlines that suggested that it would be executed with a view to 2030. To no one’s surprise, everything indicates that it won’t be like that. Strait Slopes. About a century ago, around 1929engineer Fernando Gallego Herrera a question was asked: Why not ‘suture’ the gap between Europe and Africa with an underwater tunnel in the Strait of Gibraltar? He was not the first to consider the issue, but he did so with a seriousness, a degree of technical level and a vocation, which gave visibility to the approach. Since then the idea of ​​creating a megastructure that allows Spain and Morocco to ‘touch each other’ has continued with comings and goings on the table. And not only on a theoretical level. The idea of ​​establishing a “fixed link” between Spain and Morocco even led to the creation of two entities: SECEGSAon the Spanish side, and the Societé Nationale d’Etudes du Detroit (SNED) on the Moroccan side. In recent years, the project has also attracted headlines that echoed the degree of political commitmentthe investment in studieshis time horizon and even his technical feasibilitya key aspect considering that we are talking about a structure of several dozens of kilometers in a difficult geological area. A small (big) step. In 2024 the project gave one step forwarde that (although very initial) was revealing. At the request of SECGSA, INECO commissioned a study for the “cross-strait fixed link project”. Its objective was basically to analyze “the feasibility” of excavations in the area, especially in the most critical points, such as the Camarinal Threshold that separates the Mediterranean and Atlantic basins. The task fell to a famous company in the sector: Herrenknechta leading German firm in the world of tunnel boring machines related, among other works, to the Brenner Tunnel or that of Saint Gotthard. Viable yes, although not cheap. The conclusions of their analysis have been known in recent months. First in October Populi Voice revealed that the German firm has confirmed that, although extremely complex, the Spain-Morocco pipeline would be viable from a technical point of view. The same media reported that the purpose of Spain and Portugal would be to decide in 2027 whether or not to tender an exploratory tunnel and provided a provisional calendar: just shaping the reconnaissance gallery would require between six and nine years. Regarding the cost of infrastructure, slid that the base bidding budget of the Spanish side would exceed 8.5 billion euros, a figure that includes everything from the base gallery to the tunnels, the terminal and other facilities. The sum is considerable but there is talk of diversifying its origin, including everything from community funds to formulas (concessions, fees) inspired by other megaprojects, such as the Eurotunnel wave Figueras-Perpignan line. Has there been more progress? It seems so. Although again in an initial phase still. At the end of November Populi Voice revealed again that, after the technical endorsement of Herrenknecht, SECEGSA entrusted INECO to complete the updating of the preliminary project of the structure. A deadline was even included: summer 2026. Around the same time, the Government of Spain and Morocco held a summit in Moncloa during which a memorandum was signed to “promote scientific cooperation in the study of seismicity and geodynamics in the Strait area.” In the statement released by Transport there is no mention of the tunnel, but there were those who saw in the agreement a positive nod for infrastructure. Question of deadlines. The tunnel is not only interested in its technical details and cost. Another key aspect is your calendar. Especially since already in the autumn, when the first touches of Herrenknecht’s analysis became known, slipped that the first progress of the project could arrive by 2030, the year of the Soccer World Cup in which Spain and Morocco participate as host countries. The coincidence of dates made it create expectation about how the Cup could influence the project and even if it would act as a stimulus for the subway. It was even raised if I could arrive on time. In recent days those expectations have received a jug of cold water. One more and unsurprisingIn fact. Why’s that? Because 2030 is four years away. And that is a ridiculously short time for a work that, beyond being viable on a technical and logistical level, is more than notable in complexity. First for its ambition and dimensions (more than 40 kmbetween the underwater and terrestrial section). Second because it must be developed in an area highly conditioned by its geology. Although there may be some progress towards 2030, Populi Voice mentioned in October sources close to the project that pointed to 2035-2040 as a “more realistic horizon” to see significant milestones. The idea would be to have gallery design recognition in June to put out to tender the infrastructure starting in 2027. As a reference, the construction of the Eurotunnel (50 kilometers) required some seven years (from 1988 to 19949 and Saint Gotthard (57 km) around 17. Moderating expectation. In recent weeks (and days) media like Huffington Post The reason either ACE They have echoed, citing the technical feasibility study, that the tunnel between … Read more

Yes, the Strait of Gibraltar is “about” to disappear. Within 50 million years, specifically

In recent days, we have been able to see some voices that pointed to an almost apocalyptic event in our country: the Strait of Gibraltar this “about to disappear“, making two continents come together. The image in this case is quite powerful: the Mediterranean turning into a salt lake or completely disappearing before our eyes because its water intake would be cut off. However, when geologists say ‘soon’, they don’t mean next week. The reality. This new wave of fear over this fact arises as a result of a publication in the magazine Geology which is undoubtedly fascinating. In this case, geologists have used the capacity of supercomputers and 3D geodynamic models to see that under Gibraltar there is a subduction zone that right now she is ‘asleep’ and could wake up at any moment. The study, led by João C. Duarte together with researchers from the University of Mainz, addresses one of the great debates in plate tectonics: is the Gibraltar subduction zone dead? The discovery. For years science has pointed out that the sinking of the oceanic lithosphere under the Gibraltar Arc had stopped. However, the authors have applied new computer simulation techniques with the 3D ‘gravity-driven’ model to be able to reproduce the evolution that the western Mediterranean will follow where this strait is located. This is something fundamental, since the ancient models had us quite limited, but with technology you can see the processes over millions of years. The result of what was seen is quite clear: subduction is not dead, but is in a period of ‘rest’ or ‘silence’. Although the model believes that at some point this is something that will be activated or unblocked again. The future of the Atlantic. Something that must be clear is that the oceans are not static, but rather follow what is known as the Wilson Cycle. According to this model, the Atlantic is a young ocean that is expanding right now. But like everything in this life, it is doomed to die, just as happened in the past with the Tethys ocean, which is the ancestor of the Mediterranean Sea. However, for this to occur, subduction zones need to be activated where the tectonic plate sinks under another. breaking plates. The problem is that breaking a tectonic plate to start this subduction process is mechanically very difficult. The solution proposed by this team is that this area already exists in the Mediterranean, and its effect will spread to the west, crossing the Strait and invading the Atlantic. This is something that would give something called the ‘Atlantic Ring of Fire’, analogous to the famous Pacific beltcharacterized by volcanoes and earthquakes. When will this occur? This is where the important nuance comes in that must be taken into account when we talk about something in geology happening ‘soon’. According to this simulation, the current phase of inactivity will last for some time yet. But not a few days, but the propagation of subduction towards the Atlantic will gain traction in 20 million years and the development of the new subduction system can be delayed up to 50 million years. Saying that the Strait is “about to disappear” based on this study is like saying that the Sun is about to go out because it has “only” fuel left. 5 billion years. It is true on the scale of the universe, but irrelevant to our daily lives. Why it is important. Beyond the time it will take for this to occur, this model demonstrates how subduction zones can migrate from dying oceans like the Mediterranean to expanding oceans like the Atlantic, helping us understand how the Earth has been shaped throughout its history. Images | Malcolm Ketteridge In Xataka | Cádiz has decided to prepare for something that has happened five times in 7,000 years: its destructive potential justifies it

The oil ships are changing route to avoid the Ormuz Strait. Who will pay the detour: We

Hostilities between Israel and Iran have reached a new peak of tension. The impact has not been expected: The price of oil rises and all looks point to the Ormuz Strait. Through that narrow step it circulates almost a fifth of the world crude, and although it has not been blocked, the tension is already altering routes, more than transportation and raising the pressure on the global energy market. A global bottleneck. The Ormuz Strait connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabic Sea, and is under the control of Iran. Only in 2024, more than 1.4 million barrels daily on ships were transported. According to Bloombergalso manages about 27% of the global oil liquefied gas flow (LPG). A partial or total obstruction It would directly affect energy powers such as China and India, as well as Iran, which has the third largest oil reserve on the planet. An unprecedented climb. Amid the registration of the conflict, many shipowners have begun to avoid the area or demand much higher risk premiums to cross it. According to Financial Timesthe result has been a vertiginous rise in charter prices. According to Clarksons Research figures cited by the British media, the daily rate to rent a VLCC (Vary Large Crude Carrier) that transports 2 million barrels of crude oil from the Gulf to China jumped from $ 19,998 to $ 47,609 in just a week. And not only oil transport has been increased: tank ships that transfer refined products, such as gasoline and diesel, have also doubled their rates, reaching more than $ 51,000 daily on that same route. The gas feels the impact. The tension has caused a slight fall in maritime traffic in the area, and some countries have begun to take precautions. Catar, through his state company Qatarenergy – the world’s largest exporter in the world – officially recommended to its vessels, care to cross the Strait, being the first measure known by an energy producer of the Gulf, According to Bloomberg. The tension is intensified. Iran, under international sanctionsuse a “ghost fleet”: ships that operate outside the international regulatory system, without valid insurance or security certifications. This not only represents a legal risk, but also operational. On June 17, Petrolero Front Eagle, of the Norwegian Frontline company, collided with one of these ships just after leaving the Gulf, According to Reuters. That same day, two other oil tankers collided and even caught fire, while two others were approached by Iranian vessels, which led to a “maximum alert” in the area. According to Richard Fulford-Smith, director of the firm Eden Ocean, cited by the Financial Timessome oil buyers are opting for suppliers other than Iran who use regulated vessels. This is pushing the demand towards the legitimate fleet and further increases the global rates. And now what? Uncertainty has already pushed some companies to redirect their routes outside the Persian Gulf, despite the additional cost. China and India could increase their purchases to suppliers such as Saudi Arabia or Russia, which do not depend on the Strait. So, some vessels are demanding higher risk premiums to cross the area, while others prefer to avoid it completely. For its part, United States has begun to reinforce its military presence. Can there be a real closure? Although there has been no official closure of the Strait, the tension has raised the fears that it may occur. Oxford Economics has recently warned In Bloomberg that the price of the Brent barrel could reach $ 130 if a total blockade occurs. And the most worrying: an eventual risk premium could be maintained even after a reopening. For now, the flows continue, but with greater caution and an increasingly dense naval presence. Energy risk. The Ormuz Strait is still open, but fear of a block is more present than ever. For now, the flow of crude and gas continues, although conditioned by a conflict that threatens to spread. The tension has not paralyzed trade, but has more expensive. And that, in the energy market, is enough to light alarms. Image | Pexels Xataka | A fear has taken over the world oil industry: the closure of the Ormuz Strait by Iran

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