The oil ships are changing route to avoid the Ormuz Strait. Who will pay the detour: We

Hostilities between Israel and Iran have reached a new peak of tension. The impact has not been expected: The price of oil rises and all looks point to the Ormuz Strait. Through that narrow step it circulates almost a fifth of the world crude, and although it has not been blocked, the tension is already altering routes, more than transportation and raising the pressure on the global energy market.

A global bottleneck. The Ormuz Strait connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabic Sea, and is under the control of Iran. Only in 2024, more than 1.4 million barrels daily on ships were transported. According to Bloombergalso manages about 27% of the global oil liquefied gas flow (LPG). A partial or total obstruction It would directly affect energy powers such as China and India, as well as Iran, which has the third largest oil reserve on the planet.

An unprecedented climb. Amid the registration of the conflict, many shipowners have begun to avoid the area or demand much higher risk premiums to cross it. According to Financial Timesthe result has been a vertiginous rise in charter prices. According to Clarksons Research figures cited by the British media, the daily rate to rent a VLCC (Vary Large Crude Carrier) that transports 2 million barrels of crude oil from the Gulf to China jumped from $ 19,998 to $ 47,609 in just a week. And not only oil transport has been increased: tank ships that transfer refined products, such as gasoline and diesel, have also doubled their rates, reaching more than $ 51,000 daily on that same route.

The gas feels the impact. The tension has caused a slight fall in maritime traffic in the area, and some countries have begun to take precautions. Catar, through his state company Qatarenergy – the world’s largest exporter in the world – officially recommended to its vessels, care to cross the Strait, being the first measure known by an energy producer of the Gulf, According to Bloomberg.

The tension is intensified. Iran, under international sanctionsuse a “ghost fleet”: ships that operate outside the international regulatory system, without valid insurance or security certifications. This not only represents a legal risk, but also operational. On June 17, Petrolero Front Eagle, of the Norwegian Frontline company, collided with one of these ships just after leaving the Gulf, According to Reuters. That same day, two other oil tankers collided and even caught fire, while two others were approached by Iranian vessels, which led to a “maximum alert” in the area.

According to Richard Fulford-Smith, director of the firm Eden Ocean, cited by the Financial Timessome oil buyers are opting for suppliers other than Iran who use regulated vessels. This is pushing the demand towards the legitimate fleet and further increases the global rates.

And now what? Uncertainty has already pushed some companies to redirect their routes outside the Persian Gulf, despite the additional cost. China and India could increase their purchases to suppliers such as Saudi Arabia or Russia, which do not depend on the Strait. So, some vessels are demanding higher risk premiums to cross the area, while others prefer to avoid it completely. For its part, United States has begun to reinforce its military presence.

Can there be a real closure? Although there has been no official closure of the Strait, the tension has raised the fears that it may occur. Oxford Economics has recently warned In Bloomberg that the price of the Brent barrel could reach $ 130 if a total blockade occurs. And the most worrying: an eventual risk premium could be maintained even after a reopening. For now, the flows continue, but with greater caution and an increasingly dense naval presence.

Energy risk. The Ormuz Strait is still open, but fear of a block is more present than ever. For now, the flow of crude and gas continues, although conditioned by a conflict that threatens to spread. The tension has not paralyzed trade, but has more expensive. And that, in the energy market, is enough to light alarms.

Image | Pexels

Xataka | A fear has taken over the world oil industry: the closure of the Ormuz Strait by Iran