The periphery was always the refuge of those fleeing the housing prices of Madrid. That’s over

With an untouchable market, exorbitant prices and draconian conditionsfor years many residents of Madrid who wanted to buy a house had no choice but to look outside the capital, in the metropolitan area. The logic was very simple: perhaps they couldn’t afford a flat in Castellana, but they could in Alcobendas, Coslada, Leganés or Móstoles, towns relatively well connected to Madrid and with more ‘friendly’ real estate markets.

The problem is that these shelters are becoming fewer and fewer shelters.

Where do I buy a house? There was a time when the answer to that question was obvious. One bought where one could, but usually the market offered enough margin so as not to have to leave the municipality in which one wanted to live due to roots, personal ties or work. In recent years that margin has been increasingly narrowing in cities like Madrid or Barcelona, ​​forcing buyers to consider your future beyondin metropolitan areas.

There are even people who, taking advantage of teleworking and the improvement of public transport, decide to put their things in boxes and move dozens (or even hundreds) of kilometers away without giving up their jobs in Madrid. It is something that is already perceived, for example in Valladolidwhich has seen its registry grow thanks in part to Madrid residents who come there attracted by a more affordable residential market. There are around two hundred kilometers by car between both cities, but the AVE allows you to cover the journey in just over one hour.

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Is it a real solution? The problem, like pointed out a few days ago José Manuel García Suárez in Their prices may still be lower in many cases than those paid on average in the capital, but that distance is being reduced little by little. What’s more, the more affordable their markets were initially, the faster they seem to be becoming more expensive, lowering their value as housing ‘havens’.

What does that mean? Although housing in these locations is still cheaper than in Madrid, the m2 has begun to become more expensive than in the capital, which raises an uncomfortable question: Will they continue to be an alternative for those fleeing the capital? And if so, how long?

The phenomenon is best understood with Idealista data. Right now on the real estate portal, the average residential m2 in Madrid is offered at 5,960 euros. Except for some luxury developments, there is no town in the province with such expensive housing. However, what Madrid no longer stands out for is the rate at which prices rise. According to Idealistahouses have become more expensive there by 12% in the last year compared to 16% in Pozuelo de Alcorcón, 19.8% in Majadahonda, 19.3% in Alcobendas, 16.2% in Rivas-Vaciamadrid or 20.8% in Getafe.

But it was something to be expected, right? More or less. That housing is becoming more expensive at a faster rate in Fuenlabrada than in Madrid capital is in a certain way logical. The higher a value is, the more difficult it is for it to register large percentage increases. In other words: that in Madrid housing has risen by 12% and in Coslada by 23.5% does not have to mean, in net terms, that the latter requires disbursing a greater amount of money.

Making the above clear, data such as those published by Idealista show that the real estate market is overheating more quickly in the periphery than in the metropolis. And that is relevant because it paints a scenario in which the metropolitan area stops being the “plan B” of those looking for affordable housing.

The phenomenon also It is not exclusive to Madrid. Something similar is happening on the outskirts of Barcelona, ​​which has seen how housing in Badalona, ​​Santa Coloma or Cornella de Llobregat becomes more expensive at a faster rate than in Barcelona.

What can we expect? The outlook is complicated for several reasons. Firstly, because the Madrid or Barcelona market does not give any signs that it is cooling, not at least as far as prices are concerned. Also in Spain they continue to be created homes faster than new homes are being built, suggesting that the deficit that stresses the market will not be corrected in the short term. The question is how that will affect large metropolitan areas.

Teleworking and public transportation mean that there are more and more people willing to live far from their jobs (the number of those who live and work in different provinces has increased by 30% since 2019), but cases such as those in Madrid or Barcelona show that price increases do not take long to spread to new markets, especially targeting the most affordable ones.

Image | Joshua Aguilar (Unsplash)

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