Hormuz

We know that all things are in crisis due to the closure of Hormuz, but the aluminum thing is truly worrying

by

The world economy has come face to face with a scenario that no one wanted to foresee. The global aluminum market is facing what analysts and experts already classify as a “black swan” event. The Third Gulf War has caused a drastic closure in shipping routes, triggering a supply crisis of historic proportions. An unprecedented crisis. “The magnitude of the supply crisis that we are seeing in the aluminum market is probably the largest single supply crisis that a base metals market has suffered in the post-2000 era,” Nick Snowdon, head of metals and mining research at the trading firm Mercuria, summarized it forcefully. in statements collected by the agency Reuters. And the numbers support the alarm: the Persian Gulf region has a smelting capacity of 7 million metric tons annually. That is, almost 9% of this year’s global supply is at the epicenter of a war conflict. A logistical bottleneck. The implications of this blockage go far beyond financial speculation, as aluminum is the backbone of vital industries such as transportation, construction and packaging. Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Demand Analyst in StoneXfocuses on logistical asphyxiation. According to the expert, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz does not have an easy solution, since “there are no other maritime routes that have a similar capacity.” This disruption, Scott-Gray explains, has the potential to eliminate up to 50% of the Middle East’s aluminum supply, equivalent to a direct 5% hit to global production. In Europe, the impact has already jumped from offices to factories. According to the specialized portal Miningconsumers in the construction and transportation sector are being squeezed. In Rotterdam, the physical premium (the extra cost paid above the market price to ensure delivery) for aluminum extrusion ingots has more than doubled since the start of the war, rising from $530 to $1,100 per metric ton. And the perfect storm arrives. The market has reacted with panic. According to data from Reutersfear of shortages triggered prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) to a four-year high, reaching $3,672 per ton in mid-April. Since the start of hostilities, the reference price has risen by 14%, how it complements Financial Times. What follows this crisis is an imminent structural deficit. Mercuria estimates that the market will face a minimum deficit of 2 million tons by the end of the year, an alarming figure if we consider that visible global inventories are barely around one and a half million tons. The West is particularly vulnerable. The United States imported almost 22% of its aluminum from the Middle East last year, while Europe relied on the region for 18.5% of its imports. Safety nets are failing: Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA) has been forced to declare status of “force majeure” in several European contracts after suffering an Iranian attack on its foundry in the United Arab Emirates. Simultaneously, Kubal, the only Swedish foundry (owned by the Russian Rusal), has mysteriously stopped its deliveries in Europefurther straining short-term availability. The “kings” of chaos. This aluminum shock does not occur in a vacuum; It is the symptom of a greater illness. Daniel Yergin, vice president of S&P Global, warned in Bloomberg that we are facing “the biggest energy disruption we have ever seen.” The impact transcends oil, affecting natural gas, fertilizers and metals. Aluminum production is extremely energy intensive, so rising fuel prices are driving up the costs of foundries around the world. However, in a troubled river, fishermen gain. While manufacturers suffer, the giants of commodity trading are making a move. He Financial Times reveals that the Swiss firm Mercuria has begun aggressive expansion, investing more than $3 billion in base metals. In a strategic shift, they have gone from simply financing shipments to purchasing real assets, acquiring 25% of an aluminum smelter in Indonesia. “We have both the appetite and the capacity to do more,” he assured the British newspaper Kostas Bintashead of metals at Mercuria, confirming that the company is firmly committed to this metal in the midst of the chaos. The clock is ticking. The current crisis has mutated, In the words of Yergin to Bloombergin a clash between two blockades: American economic pressure versus Tehran’s ability to “wage war on the world economy”. The paradox is that this energy and logistics bottleneck will end up accelerating the transition to electric vehicles and will force countries to redesign their energy security. But in the short term, reality is stubborn. As the analysis concludes ReutersMiddle Eastern aluminum simply cannot be replaced overnight. China, the world’s largest producer, has a strict legal annual production limit of 45 million tonnes, and neither the United States nor Europe have enough idle capacity they can turn on to salvage the situation. The “black swan” has landed, and the global industry will have to learn to survive in a scenario where aluminum, once abundant, has become a treasure caught in the crossfire. Image | Magnificent Xataka | Iran has pulled out a “trick” to sell to China while avoiding the US: turning the ocean into its secret gas station

The US is doing a lot of damage to Iran with the Hormuz counterblockade. So much so that he is already considering closing oil wells

by

Oil has an unbreakable physical law: once it leaves the ground, it has to go somewhere. If ships can’t transport it and storage tanks fill up, the only option is to shut down the wells. Today, the war of attrition between the United States and Iran has ceased to be a mere diplomatic conflict and has become a geological and logistical time bomb. According to data from the analysis firm KplerIran has just 12 to 22 days left before its crude oil storage capacity is completely saturated. The US naval blockade has suffocated its exports by 70%, plummeting shipments from 1.85 million barrels per day to a meager 567,000. A lethal limit. As explained Al Jazeera, Stopping production at an oil well is not like turning off a light switch. When pumping is stopped, the pressure in the underground reservoirs drops sharply, allowing water or gas to seep into the production layers. The potential damage is immense: The Wall Street Journal warns that almost half of the Iranian oil fields are old and low pressure. An abrupt shutdown threatens to permanently destroy part of this aging infrastructure, making recovering that crude oil in the future technically and financially unfeasible. In Washington, the narrative is one of imminent victory. The US administration is confident that this collapse will force Tehran to surrender. According to statements collected by Foreign Policythe US Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessentand President Donald Trump himself predict that the drowning will cause an imminent internal shortage of gasoline, increasing social pressure on the regime until it is forced to give in. However, experts urge caution against Western triumphalism. A rigorous analysis of the Center on Global Energy Policy from Columbia University dismantles part of the myth of catastrophic damage dividing the problem into two fronts: Crude oil can breathe: Specialists detail that the historic oil fields of Khuzestan operate through a “gravity drainage” system. Paradoxically, a temporary stoppage could allow these specific reservoirs to recharge naturally. Natural gas, the true Achilles’ heel: The real risk, the institution explains, lies in the natural gas fields, such as the gigantic South Pars. If these become blocked as they cannot release the associated liquids, Iran will be forced to drastically ration energy for industry and homes in the coming months. Tehran does not plan to give up. According to NDTV, The Islamic Republic will maintain its “diplomacy of patience.” Furthermore, the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) already survived to severe production cuts in 2012 and 2019, and has a robust smuggling network that makes it very resistant to conventional economic pressure. Added to this is the time factor: according to the calculations of Kplerthe real financial blow will take between three and four months to be felt in Iranian coffers, since China – its main client – ​​operates with long delays in payments. The flight forward. To buy time, Iran is resorting to extreme measures. As revealed The Wall Street Journal, The country is reactivating dilapidated infrastructure, known in the sector as “junk storage”, in areas such as Ahvaz and Asaluyeh, and is even trying to export crude oil by train to China; a very slow and very expensive route that shows the level of stress in the system. and in the sea activation of the Nashaa 30-year-old supertanker rescued from scrapping to serve as an emergency floating warehouse. But the most fascinating and opaque strategy is unfolding thousands of miles from the Persian Gulf. As my colleague Miguel Jorge has developed for Xataka, There is a “secret gas station” in the middle of the ocean. This is an area off the coast of Malaysia, known as EOPL, which functions as a huge ghost car park. There, a shadow fleet of aging ships with their tracking systems (AIS) turned off conduct dangerous ship-to-ship crude transfers. With this maneuver they launder the origin of the oil, passing it off as Malaysian to sell it to independent Chinese refineries and evade the radar of US sanctions. The global earthquake. As Iran searches for oxygen, the collateral damage of this blockade is fracturing the global economy and geopolitics. Behind closed doors, the Iranian social collapse is advancing at a steady pace. A crude report of the Financial Times details that real inflation is already close to 50% and the national currency (the rial) sinks to historic lows. The price of basic products such as cheese and chicken has skyrocketed, and the government admits that more than 191,000 workers have applied for unemployment benefits since the start of the war. Globally, the Straits crisis has shattered the mirage of modern logistics. The collapse of Hormuz It’s not a temporary traffic jam.but a tectonic fault that has broken the “just in time” system and is threatening the hegemony of the petrodollar. Markets, panicking over a prolonged disruption, have pushed a barrel of Brent crude above $120, its highest level since 2022. But the most seismic geopolitical consequence of this war has erupted within the oil cartel: the United Arab Emirates (UAE). will leave OPEC+ May 1st. Fed up with production quotas that limited their income and feeling deeply abandoned by their Arab neighbors in the face of direct attacks from Iran, the Emiratis have decided to fly alone. This breakup leaves Saudi Arabia alone bearing the cost of stabilizing the market, greatly weakens OPEC and gives Donald Trump a diplomatic coup that he had been seeking for years. The final pulse. In the end, this conflict has become a drag race in which no one emerges unscathed. The big question that will decide the outcome of the war is who will go bankrupt first: the fragile and antiquated oil wells of Iran and its exhausted population, or the global consumers and the great Western powers, unable to withstand the skyrocketing fuel prices and the collapse of world shipping routes for much longer. And all this happens under inescapable pressure. While political leaders debate and move their chips thousands of kilometers away, the valves of Kharg Island … Read more

A superyacht has just crossed Hormuz before the astonished gaze of the US and Iran. Its flag has confirmed that mines are not for everyone

by

In 2019, during one of the highest recent tensions in the Persian Gulf, several marine insurers they raised their premiums so much that some shipowners chose to keep their ships anchored for weeks rather than crossing certain routes considered too dangerous. In parallel, other ships continued sailing with relative normality thanks to apparently minor details such as their registration or the documentation they carried, making it clear that, even in times of greatest uncertainty, not all ships play with the same rules. A strategic step converted into a global funnel. we have been counting. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil normally circulates, has become one of the most tense points of the planet after the outbreak of the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, with traffic plummeting from more than 130 ships daily to just a few dozen and hundreds of ships trapped waiting for safe conditions. The situation has skyrocketed energy prices and generated a domino effect in global trade, while Tehran demands permits to cross and Washington threatens to intercept certain movements. In this scenario, crossing this bottleneck has become an operation fraught with military, legal and economic risks. Or maybe not so much. A superyacht that defies the blockade. Because in the midst of that collapse, he Northa luxury superyacht valued at just over $500 million and linked to the Russian oligarch Alexei Mordashovachieved what very few have achieved in recent weeks: crossing Hormuz from Dubai to Oman without incident. With more than 140 meters in length, several decks, a swimming pool, heliports and even a convertible hangar, its journey not only contrasts with the general paralysis of maritime traffic, but also makes it a striking anomaly in an environment where even large oil companies prefer not to take risks. Your journey, monitored in real timefollowed routes that other ships have used with some type of coordination in the area, although without official confirmation about permits. Alexey Mordashov The invisible key. Possibly the most revealing element of this episode is not in the luxury of the ship, but in how did he get through without being detained or attacked, in a context where any ship can become a target. Everything indicates that he achieved it with a combination of factors: not heading to Iranian ports (which would place it outside the direct focus of the US blockade), sailing through corridors tolerated by Iran and, above all, operating under a diffuse legal structure where the formal property does not entirely coincide with the real one. In other words, in an environment where each movement is interpreted as a political signal, the flag, the chosen route and the legal ambiguity act as a kind of tacit safe conduct that allows one to move between red lines without completely crossing them. Geopolitics, sanctions and alliances in the background. Of course, the journey of North cannot be understood without the political background that surrounds it, marked by the close relationship between Russia and Iran and by the fact that Vladimir Putin maintains a strategic support to Tehran in full escalation with the West. Mordashov, one of the men richest in Russia and sanctioned for the United States and the European Union since the invasion of Ukraine, you have already seen other seized assetswhich has led many oligarchs to move their assets to safer jurisdictions. In this context, the passage of the yacht through Hormuz also becomes a sign of the extent to which certain networks of power and alliances can influence what, in theory, should be a total blockade. A symptom of how conflicts work. Beyond the anecdote, the episode reflects a dynamic increasingly common in contemporary conflicts: while great powers impose restrictions and threats, they always there are gray spaces where specific actors manage to move thanks to combinations of diplomacy, crossed interests and legal loopholes. The fact that a luxury superyacht can cross one of the most dangerous points on the planet in the middle of a crisis, while hundreds of ships remain immobilized and frightened by mines and drones in the surrounding area, illustrates how power is not only measured in military capacity, but also in ability to browse (literally and figuratively) between rules that are not always applied uniformly. Image | POT, Wolfgang Fricke In Xataka | The US resurrected the “right of prey” to capture a ship from China: the problem is that China has taken note In Xataka | Ukraine taught how to use drones. Iran has gone one step further: turning them into a crusher for US radars and bases

The closure of Hormuz is the symptom of a much more threatening problem: the straits are no longer reliable

by

The world watches the Strait of Hormuz waiting for a sign of normality that does not come. After weeks of conflict, the official “reopening” narrative faces a devastating mathematical and logistical reality. What we are witnessing is not a temporary blip in trade, but, as experts warnthe confirmation that the system of “bottlenecks” that supported the global economy has been definitively broken. At first glance, the news of a ceasefire and the “reopening” of Hormuz should have reassured the markets. However, the reality on the ground is very different. Cyril Widdershoven, analyst OilPricedescribes this supposed normality as a “mirage.” While under normal conditions the strait registers between 120 and 140 daily transits, data from April 2026 show days with just three boats. Why don’t we see the total disaster on our streets yet? The answer lies in the physics of shipping. As we have already explaineda supertanker moves at the speed of a bicycle. The crude oil we consume today is the one that “pedaled” through the ocean before the conflict broke out. According to the data of Kpler206 million barrels have already “vanished” from the market in just 40 days. Logistical inertia has kept us in a false calm, but the shock wave is about to reach us. The report of Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)titled “The Strait of Hormuz in 8 Charts“, confirms that the strait has been “effectively closed” since March 2. Although Tehran announced an opening on April 17, the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) turned back just 24 hours later, threatening to attack any ship that collaborates with “the enemy.” In Xataka It is true that we have not yet noticed 100% the effect of the closure of Hormuz. The reasons are not at all optimistic The end of trust and the petrodollar What makes this crisis different from Suez is the trust factor. Analyst Widdershoven points out that the system It is not broken by geography, but by the perception of risk. When insurers withdraw “war risk” coverage, the strait ceases to exist economically, even though it is physically open. But the impact goes beyond the price of gasoline. Aaron Brown, in Bloombergissues a historic warning: “The war in Iran has just broken the petrodollar.” The 1974 pact, where the US guaranteed security in the Gulf in exchange for oil being sold in dollars and that money being reinvested in US debt, has collapsed. Countries like India or Türkiye are selling their US Treasury bonds to obtain liquidity and pay for increasingly expensive crude oil. For the first time in decades, central banks hold more gold than US bonds. Even if full peace were signed tomorrow, a return to normality is a technical chimera. Jacob Judah, in Financial Timesdescribes a “demining nightmare.” Iran has seeded the strait with sophisticated mines that can be camouflaged as rocks or buried in the seabed. Clearing a safe lane just a mile wide could take weeks; clear the strait completely, months. And, as Judah points out, the US Navy has neglected its mine warfare capability for decades. On the other hand, the recovery capacity of inventories is discouraging. Fatih Birol, director of the IEA, has declared to Reuters that this crisis is “more serious than those of 1973, 1979 and 2022 combined.” The IEA report from April estimates the collapse of global supply at 10.1 million of barrels daily. However, even producing an extra million barrels a day, it will take the world two years to recover pre-conflict inventory levels. Terrestrial alternatives are not the solution either. According to Holly Ellyatt for the CNBCthe pipelines that cross Saudi Arabia (East-West) and the UAE (Fujairah) only have the capacity to absorb between 3.5 and 5.5 million barrels per day, a fraction of the 20 million that normally flow through Hormuz. Behind the barrel numbers there is an invisible human drama. Wired tells the situation of 20,000 sailors trapped in the Gulf. Stories like that of PK Vijay, an Indian sailor on an abandoned ship, show how the complexity of maritime registration leaves workers in legal limbo, without pay and without the possibility of disembarking in a war zone. On a legal level, the situation is just as swampy. As the West condemns Iran, Maryam Jamshidi in The Nation argues that, technically, the US and Israel are the ones who have violated international law with their “war of aggression.” Iran, having not ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), has a legal basis to regulate passage through its territorial waters and collect tolls, something that Western powers describe as “economic hostage-taking.” {“videoId”:”x8j6422″,”autoplay”:false,”title”:”Declassified video of the clash between Russian fighters and the American drone”, “tag”:”united states”, “duration”:”42″} Suez was the warning, but Hormuz is confirmation that the era of just-in-time logistics and cheap, frictionless energy is over. The global economy has discovered, in the worst possible way, that its heart continues to beat to the rhythm of slow ships. As the analysis concludes OilPriceHormuz is no longer just a step; It is a tectonic fault. The world that emerges from this crisis will be one of “resilience over efficiency”, where trade will be more regional, more redundant and, inevitably, much more expensive. The price of security has become permanently embedded in the price of oil, and with it, the future of the world economy. Image |NASA GSFC Xataka |The US resurrected the “right of prey” to capture a ship from China: the problem is that China has taken note (function() { window._JS_MODULES = window._JS_MODULES || {}; var headElement = document.getElementsByTagName(‘head’)(0); if (_JS_MODULES.instagram) { var instagramScript = document.createElement(‘script’); instagramScript.src=”https://platform.instagram.com/en_US/embeds.js”; instagramScript.async = true; instagramScript.defer = true; headElement.appendChild(instagramScript); – The news The closure of Hormuz is the symptom of a much more threatening problem: the straits are no longer reliable was originally published in Xataka by Alba Otero .

Not only has the US just lost the “eye” that Hormuz watched, its nuclear aircraft carrier is in Africa for fear of being shot down

by

Year 2019, an American surveillance drone more than 200 million of dollars disappears from the radar over the Gulf of Oman and, a few hours later, Iran shows its remains to the world on television. It was not the first time something like this had happened, but it was one of the most uncomfortable: a machine designed to see everything had been seen before it could react. Since then, in that part of the map, each silence in the systems begins to weigh more than it seems. Losing the “eye” that watched Hormuz. Confirmation of the fall of MQ-4C Triton a few hours ago is not a simple technical incident, but the loss of one of the most advanced pieces of the US surveillance system in the Persian Gulf. This drone, capable of operating at high altitude for hours and equipped with cutting-edge sensors, was key to monitor naval movementsdetect threats and maintain situational control around the strait. His disappearance, under circumstances still unclearleaves a most uncomfortable void at a time when every piece of information matters, especially in an environment where mines, drones and speedboats turn any mistake into a real threat. The “scared” aircraft carrier. Plus: the diversion of USS George H.W. Bush Going around Africa instead of crossing the Suez Canal is not just any logistical decision, but a symptom of that operational vulnerability What Washington is suffering from. The reason? Avoid passing through Bab el-Mandeb It means recognizing that even a nuclear aircraft carrier battle group, one of the most powerful assets in the world, cannot guarantee their security in a strait where actors such as the Houthis have demonstrated the ability to attack ships with drones and missiles. This detour not only lengthens times and complicates deployments, but also shows that military superiority does not always translate into freedom of movement. The uncomfortable precedent. Not only that. They counted the Forbes analysts that the decision of avoid Bab el-Mandeb It raises a disturbing question for the immediate future, because if this step is already considered too dangerous, what happens to Hormuz, much narrower, guarded and saturated with Iranian defensive systems? The logic is a huge question. Iran not only has more advanced technology than its regional allies, but also decades of specific preparation for that scenario. That makes any attempt to operate there a very high risk betand where even a single relevant impact could completely alter the strategic balance of the area. The strategic paradox. If you also want, what emerges from these movements is not that image of overflowing force that is presupposed, but rather of calculation and extreme fear. While American political discourse speaks of pressure, blockade and control, tactical decisions are revealing prudence, we would even say caution. The simple fact that the route of a nuclear aircraft carrier is redesigned to avoid a hot spot shows that the margin of error it’s tiny. And in an environment where a successful attack on a high-value ship could trigger disproportionate military and political consequences, the priority is no longer projecting strength and power, but avoiding losses at all costs. When losing a little is too much. In summary, the combination of drone crash Triton and the rnuclear aircraft carrier odeo paints a crystal clear picture: right now, the United States is not operating from a position of comfort, but rather in an extremely delicate balance. In that scenario, it doesn’t take a devastating blow to change the rules of the game, just with a symbolic one. Because a lost surveillance drone may be acceptable, even if it has the characteristics of the MQ-4C, but a damaged warship or a compromised nuclear aircraft carrier would be a very different story. Image | USN In Xataka | The US already has the first response to its blockade of Hormuz: a boomerang of unpredictable consequences called China In Xataka | The US has closed all exits from the Strait of Hormuz. And now Iran can put into practice what it has been preparing for 25 years

If you thought the crisis in Hormuz was enough, the war in Ukraine has triggered another maritime drama in Europe: the Gulf of Finland

by

About five years ago, the container ship Ever Given became stuck in the Suez Canal for six daysblocking one of the most important commercial arteries in the world and leaving hundreds of ships trapped waiting. That incident, caused by a failed maneuver and adverse wind conditions, was enough to disrupt global supply chains in a matter of hours. A new seafront. As global attention focuses on the Strait of Hormuz, the war in Ukraine has opened another critical scenario much closer to Europe: the Gulf of Finlanda small but key space for Russian energy exports. There, far from spectacular drones or large fleets, the conflict manifests itself in a more silent way but just as revealingwith ships detained, routes blocked and growing tension between actors trying to avoid a direct escalation. This new focus demonstrates that the war is not only being fought on the land front, but also in the nerve centers of maritime trade. Ukraine attacks and a collapse. The situation has its origins in a clear kyiv strategy: to hit key russian ports to export oil, such as Ust-Luga and Primorsk, where it comes a fundamental part of the income that finances the war. The attacks have drastically reduced the operational capacity of these facilities, leaving dwhole days without activity and causing an immediate chain effect. The result: a unprecedented maritime traffic jamwith dozens of oil tankers (many of them linked to the so-called “floats in the shadows” Russian) accumulating waiting to be able to load. A system on the limit. They remembered this week in Political that this traffic jam in the Gulf of Finland is not just a striking image, but a symptom of something deeper: an energy and logistics system that begins to fracture under the pressure of war. Unlike conventional vessels, these tankers cannot be easily redirected to other ports due to the risk of being detained or sanctioned, which forced to remain anchored for days or weeks. As a result, there is an unusual concentration of aging and, in many cases, unsafe ships in European waters that were not prepared to absorb that volume. Europe trapped between control and escalation. Under this scenario, countries like Estonia and Finland They are in a particularly delicate position, since, despite being within the NATO framework, they have chosen not to intervene directly against these ships. The reason is clear: any attempt to stop or board an oil tanker could trigger a Russian military responseas already happened when a Russian fighter intervened to protect one of these ships. Since then, Moscow has reinforced its naval presence in the area, making it clear that it considers these strategic routes a red line. The Mirror of Hormuz. There is no doubt, what happens in the Gulf of Finland connects directly with the crisis in Hormuz: In both cases, the war moves towards maritime straits where traffic control becomes a strategic tool. The difference is that there is no formal block here, but an indirect disruption which generates similar effects, with stopped ships, tense routes and altered markets. In both scenarios, it is enough to interfere enough to collapse the system, and also without the need for a total shutdown. A war that spreads across the map. If you like, the result is a conflict that is no longer limited to Ukraine either to the Middle Eastbut it extends to the critical nodes of global trade, affecting Europe directly. The Gulf of Finland has thus become in another hot spot where energy, legal and military interests intersect, with an extremely fragile and volatile balance. And what seemed like a localized war is proving to have a much greater scope, generating new sources of tension that, like in Hormuz, can escalate quickly. without prior notice. Image | LAC, NormanEinstein In Xataka | If fog was deadly in Ukraine’s winter, spring is offering Russia a key advantage: greenery In Xataka | Ukraine is close to what no one has achieved in a war: shooting down missiles for less than a million dollars

The US already has the first response to its blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. A boomerang of unpredictable consequences: China

by

During a crisis with Japan in 2019, China constantly sent patrol boats and government vessels to the disputed waters of the senkaku islandsmaintaining an almost daily presence without completely crossing the line of direct confrontation. That strategy, based on sustained pressure without shock frontal, showed how Beijing can protect its interests at sea by playing on an ambiguous terrain where every move counts. The block changes the board. USA has finally activated the naval blockade of Iranian ports in response to the failure of negotiations, deploying ships, special forces and interdiction capabilities to cut off the flow of oil and economically suffocate Tehran. The operation does not seek to completely close the Strait of Hormuz, but to control who enters and who leaves of the Iranian energy system, which involves intercepting, diverting or even boarding ships in transit. This movement, long studied by the Pentagon, marks a qualitative leap in war, since it transfers pressure from the air and land to the sea, where the legal, military and commercial implications are much more diffuse. and potentially explosive. The reality of global trade. The fundamental problem of the blockade is not only in its military execution, but in its fit with the global system of energy transport, where the majority of the ships are not Iranian, but from third countries such as India, Iraq or, especially China. Intercepting or pressuring these ships in international waters introduces an entirely different dimension, one where the line between military action and global economic conflict is blurred.becomes extremely thin. Thus, each attempt to stop this flow not only affects Iran, but also removes more crude oil from the market, raises prices and transfers the political and economic cost to the blocker himself. Iran and the long term. I remembered the weekend the new york times that, far from collapsing, Iran has demonstrated remarkable strategic resilience, relying on alternative routes, land trade with Asia and financial networks that include Asian, especially Chinese, banks and partners. Its economy, although under pressure, continues to function thanks to indirect exports, accumulated income and access to credit, while control of the strait allows it to continue conditioning the global energy market. In this context, the time plays in your favor: The longer the crisis continues, the greater the wear and tear on the United States and its allies, both in economic and political terms. Permanent military friction point. The blockade forces the US navy to operate in a extremely delicate environmentone where any interaction with suspicious vessels can escalate quickly. The need to board oil tankers, manage crews or redirect cargo turns each operation into a possible international incidentespecially if those ships are protected or linked to state actors. Added to this is the latent threat from Iran, which maintains sufficient capacity (missiles, drones, fast boats) to turn any mistake or specific confrontation into a major climb. The boomerang effect: China. The great consequence of the blockade at this time has not been long in coming, and it is China’s reactionthe main buyer of Iranian oil and a key player in the region. Beijing has made it clear through a statement that it will continue to defend its energy and commercial interests, keeping its routes open and warning against any external interference. There is no doubt, this introduces a completely new risk to the conflict: that of a direct or indirect shock between US forces and assets linked to China, whether in the form of tankers, escorts or diplomatic and economic pressure. Furthermore, the Asian giant has response tools that go beyond the military sphere, from the use of its commercial weight to the control of critical resources. Dead end scenario. The result is a situation in which the attempt to strangle Iran It becomes a system of crossed tensions with multiple actors, where each movement generates new frictions. Blocking does not guarantee a quick resolutionbut it does increase the chances of miscalculations, incidents at sea and escalations that are difficult to contain. Precisely in this unstable balance, the United States not only faces Iran, but an environment where the consequences rebound outside the region, with China as the actor who turns a regional operation into a first order global problem. Image | US Navy In Xataka | The problem in Hormuz is not that it is closed: it is that Iran has “lost the keys” and without them the balance is broken In Xataka | The most buoyant market right now is selling streaming and satellite images of US movements to Iran.

The world trembles over Hormuz oil while ignoring what feeds 50% of the planet

by

Geopolitics has a curious tendency to make us focus our attention on a specific point and not look at everything around us. With the scale of the tension in the Strait of Hormuzall eyes were on crude oil and the price of gasoline; However, experts warn that fertilizers are also in the spotlight. And the reality is that its collapse can cause a lack of food in our crops, since the vast majority depend on it. An invisible engine. Although the world seems to have forgotten about the fertilizers that arrive through the Strait of Hormuz, the reality is that we can affirm that humanity cannot exist without organic chemistry. And it is no wonder, because more than half of the food produced worldwide is available thanks to mineral fertilizers, as the IFDC points out. If we go further, the studies point out that nitrogen fertilizers Synthetics sustain the diet of almost half of the world’s population. And the worst of all is that, without this mineral contribution, global harvests will be directly reduced by half, so we are not talking about a product that improves performance marginally, but rather we are talking about the pillar of a food system that supports 8 billion people. A bottleneck. In this context of absolute dependence, the media focus is paradoxical. International attention and logistical surveillance focus almost exclusively on fossil fuels, ignoring the fact that fertilizers are a highly concentrated industry and closely linked to natural gas. But organizations like UNCTAD and media like EFE they have put figures to disaster by estimating that a third of global maritime fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This means that logistical interruptions in the Persian Gulf directly affect millions of tons of agricultural inputs, which for the UN It is undoubtedly a major impact on global food security. There are no reservations. In recent weeks we have seen how different governments have announced with great fanfare the release of thousands of barrels of oil in national reserves. A strategy that has been built in recent years to be able to cushion this type of geopolitical shocks, but with fertilizers there is no such thing. It has consequences. The analyzes of the experts point out in this case that the interruption of the fertilizer chain has a full impact on the field, since any interruption has a full impact on the bank. Here both the FAO and the World Bank They have been warning for months that the suspension of shipments from the Gulf can skyrocket food prices almost instantly, severely affecting countries that depend on food imports. But the problem is that right now there is a significant lack of infrastructure, since we are seeing that the sector is dominated by a few players such as Russia, China, India and the United States. This, added to the shortage of long-term storage networks, makes us think that the price of food may suffer a large increase in the coming weeks, as well as have a bad harvest of 2026. Measures to alleviate it. The Government of Spain recently approved a new text that, in addition to lower energy-related taxesalso opted to inject money into the primary sector. In this case, direct aid was offered to partially compensate for this increase in fertilizers with the aim of ensuring that the increase was not transferred entirely to the shopping basket. Images | James Baltz Jonathan Cooper In Xataka | You’ve probably never heard of urea. The missiles in Iran are destroying their production, and that will affect your food

We wanted electric cars and solar panels. The Hormuz blockade has returned us to the era of coal and nuclear energy

by

The Third Gulf War has caused what decades of climate summits tried to avoid: the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has erased 20% of the world’s supply of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in one fell swoop. Faced with the imminent threat of a large-scale blackout, governments around the world have put their energy transition plans in a drawer. However, to keep the lights on and the economy afloat, the immediate response has been to look back to the past: burn coal by the piece and resurrect nuclear power. The mirage of “bridge fuel.” Asia buys more than 80% of the crude oil and gas that transits through Hormuz, but the problem goes far beyond a simple ship jam. This crisis has destroyed one of the great pillars of the energy transition. As explained The New York TimesLiquefied Natural Gas (LNG) was sold during the last decade as the perfect “bridge fuel”: less polluting than coal, more reliable than intermittent renewables and capable of being transported by sea to any corner. That bridge just blew up. The damage is far from being repaired, and it is estimated that the infrastructure attacked It will take years to operate again. Added to this is that Iran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a kind of maritime “VIP discotheque”deciding by hand which ships can cross. No one can depend on LNG ships to guarantee their sovereignty. The main problem: live without pantry. But there is a technical factor that has turned this crisis into an immediate catastrophe: lack of storage. Unlike the West, most Asian countries lack underground gas stores, leaving them completely exposed to supply disruptions. While nations like South Korea can last up to 52 days and Japan about three weeks, Taiwan walk on a wire extremely fragile, with a legal security threshold of just 11 or 12 days of reserves. Without a “pantry” to store the LNG, Asia has no room for maneuver: if the ship does not arrive on Monday, the blackout begins on Tuesday. This structural vulnerability is what has forced an unconditional surrender to coal. Coal’s dirty lifesaver. As Jonathan Teubner, the aforementioned analyst, perfectly summarizes by Financial Times: “No coal ship passes through the Strait of Hormuz.” That is the key to everything. Being a cheap, abundant resource that does not depend on the troubled waters of the Middle East, the most polluting mineral has returned with a bang. According to FortuneSouth Korea has removed the 80% operational cap for its coal plants, a decision that has drawn the ire of environmental groups who accuse the government of using “energy security as a pretext.” Thailand, for its part, is restarting plants it had dismantled last year. From Seoul to New Delhi: the dilemma of the powers. Japan, one of the world’s largest gas importers, has also bowed to the evidence, allowing its least efficient coal plants to operate at full capacity for a year. Energy desperation is such that in Japan There are already voices demanding cancel the emissions trading system, calling it a “death sentence” for the coal plants they now need to survive. In India, the situation is critical. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has warned of a “major challenge” ahead of the summer. To avoid massive blackouts, New Delhi has commanded giants such as Tata Power and Adani Power operate at full capacity, while Bangladesh seeks multi-billion dollar loans. Sam Chua, analyst at Rystad Energy, sums it up in Financial Times: We are not seeing a transition, but a brutal “destruction of gas demand.” Although it is not that simple: the money wall. This coal revival has a glass ceiling. As experts point out in Japan Timesthe banking sector flatly refuses to finance the construction of new coal plants for fear of being left with “stranded assets” (stranded assets) in the face of global climate commitments. That is, countries are squeezing their dirty old infrastructure to the last drop, but they can’t build new ones. Charcoal is the assisted respirator, but not the cure. The atom as a shield: the great redemption of uranium. Panic too has broken atomic taboos. Taiwan, whose government promised a “nuclear-free homeland” in 2016, has announced plans to restart two decommissioned reactors. The Philippines has charted a fast track to atomic energy by 2032, and Vietnam has just struck a deal with Russia to build its first reactors. Uranium is no longer seen as a threat, but rather as the only way to protect the electricity supply against maritime blackmail. The domino effect reaches Europe. What started as an emergency solution in Asia is already infecting the West. The crisis has forced the European Union to break its own historical taboos, admitting that Europe committed a “strategic mistake” by moving away from atomic energy. Brussels has already put 200 million euros on the table to develop Small Modular Reactors (SMR) by 2030. This shift shows a continental fracture: while France entrenches itself protecting its nuclear investment of 300 billion euros and blocks energy interconnections with the Iberian Peninsula, Europe assumes that it cannot guarantee its future solely with the sun and the wind. War rationing in the 21st century. While the plants uproot, the daily suffocation hit the streets. Philippines has declared a “national energy emergency.” In South Korea, the government implores families to take short showers and Samsung has prohibited its employees from driving to work based on the license plate. In Thailand, officials operate with work weeks for four days and they are prohibited from wearing ties in order to raise the temperature of the air conditioning. The collapse is so severe that Thai ambulances have taken to Facebook to beg gas stations to reserve diesel for them to save lives. The collateral damage. The scope of this blockage transcends the electricity bill. If the conflict lasts until June, Bloomberg alert that the barrel could touch $200, a price designed to cause “demand destruction.” This would lock global inflation at a chronic … Read more

Iran has turned Hormuz into the entrance to a VIP nightclub. And Spain enters the guest list and the US stays at the door

by

Spain has never been a great military power, but it has been a key player in energy routes. In fact, more than 60% of the gas Its consumption arrives by ship and its refineries are among the most important in southern Europe. Furthermore, its geographical position makes it a natural bridge between Africa, America and the Mediterranean, which means that any change in global energy flows ends up impacting, directly or indirectly, its economy. Iran as oil watchdog. what is happening in Hormuz At this moment it breaks one of the great premises of the global order of recent decades. The naval superiority of the United States was assumed to be overwhelming, backed by a navy that far surpasses the rest of the world in capacity and deployment, and which guaranteed the security of the great sea routes. However, Iran has shown that it is not necessary to dominate the oceans to control a key point. It is enough to have the ability to deny access in a small space, combine asymmetric military pressure and assume the cost of the conflict. The result is that Washington, despite its power, is tied hand and foot and cannot reopen the strait without escalating the war to levels much more dangerous. This turns Iran into a kind of “watchdog” for world oil, capable of deciding who passes and who doesn’tand marks a paradigm shift where the control of strategic bottlenecks outweighs global military supremacy. A tight as a VIP nightclub. Yes, because Iran has transformed the Strait of Hormuz into something more than an energetic chokepoint: has converted it in a business which works in the same way as the door of an exclusive nightclub, that is, a space where not just anyone enters, but only those who are on the list. And there Spain appears among the guests (what have confirmed explicitly) and, of course, the “hostile ships” of the United States and Israel are clearly banned. In other words, they have established a system selective access that redefines control of one of the most critical routes on the planet and turns geopolitics into a direct filter on who can trade and who cannot. Spain and its no to war. Impossible to ignore the government statement Spanish with Iran’s latest move. Pedro Sánchez’s refusal to align with Donald Trump’s strategy broke the dynamic common in Europe. Spain blocked the use from its bases, refused to actively participate in the operation, and turned “no to war” into foreign policy. That movement, which seemed isolated, began to influence other countries. Germany and Italy, for their part, they took distance. And Europe stopped moving as a bloc, showing that there is room to challenge Washington without completely breaking the alliance. The “prize”. It remains to be seen if in the end it will be “poisoned”, but the truth is that this Spanish positioning has had immediate consequences. Iran has shown a special disposition towards Spain, facilitating ship transit linked to their country in a context in which the passage is practically closed for many others. This preferential treatment turns neutrality into an operational advantage tangible, but also introduces a delicate dimension. Spain gains room for maneuver in the short term, but at the cost of exposing itself to criticism and pressure from its allies, critics who may interpret such access as a dangerous concession in a highly polarized environment. The Iranian model that no one saw coming. I was counting this morning the financial times that Tehran is designing a maritime traffic control system much more structured than it might seem. Transit no longer depends solely on navigation, but of a process which combines diplomacy, supervision and, in some cases, high payments to guarantee passage. As? Apparently, the ships must coordinate with the Iranian authorities, undergo verifications and follow specific routes under surveillance. This “handmade” model that few saw coming in the middle of the war introduces a de facto “toll” that transforms the strait into an economic and political tool at the same time, reinforcing Iran’s ability to influence global trade. A global bottleneck. The impact of this change is enormous if we take into account the importance of the Strait of Hormuz. How have we been countingit passes approximately one fifth of world oil, as well as gas and essential raw materials for the global economy. The war has reduced traffic drastically, has increased attacks on ships and has generated a situation of great uncertainty for thousands of sailors. What was once a predictable route has become a high risk spacewith immediate consequences on energy prices and market stability. From highway to guarded corridor. They explained in The Guardian through a visual analysis that the functioning of the strait has also changed in operational terms. The usual routes have been replaced by controlled runners closer to the Iranian coast, where authorities can directly supervise transiting ships. This system allows almost individualized traffic management, reducing the volume of passage and increasing control on each vessel. The result is that Hormuz has stopped behaving as an international maritime highway and begins to function as a regulated access, where each movement depends on prior authorization. Consequences. In the long term, this model opens the door for Iran to obtain important income and consolidate a tool for strategic pressure on world trade. However, also raises legal issues and diplomatic tensions significant, since it questions basic principles of international maritime law. Given this scenario, other countries could accelerate the search for alternatives, such as new energy infrastructure or different trade routes (China and Russia they are already doing it). If this process is consolidated, the result could be a system fragmentation global, where access to key resources depends increasingly on political decisions and less on norms shared for years. Image | eutrophication&hypoxiaNARA, US Navy, اری In Xataka | Israel has found the secret route of the war in Ukraine: it has just bombed the “Uber of shahed drones” between Russia and Iran In Xataka | Iran is … Read more

Log In

Forgot password?

Forgot password?

Enter your account data and we will send you a link to reset your password.

Your password reset link appears to be invalid or expired.

Log in

Privacy Policy

Add to Collection

No Collections

Here you'll find all collections you've created before.