Hormuz

The closure of Hormuz is the symptom of a much more threatening problem: the straits are no longer reliable

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The world watches the Strait of Hormuz waiting for a sign of normality that does not come. After weeks of conflict, the official “reopening” narrative faces a devastating mathematical and logistical reality. What we are witnessing is not a temporary blip in trade, but, as experts warnthe confirmation that the system of “bottlenecks” that supported the global economy has been definitively broken. At first glance, the news of a ceasefire and the “reopening” of Hormuz should have reassured the markets. However, the reality on the ground is very different. Cyril Widdershoven, analyst OilPricedescribes this supposed normality as a “mirage.” While under normal conditions the strait registers between 120 and 140 daily transits, data from April 2026 show days with just three boats. Why don’t we see the total disaster on our streets yet? The answer lies in the physics of shipping. As we have already explaineda supertanker moves at the speed of a bicycle. The crude oil we consume today is the one that “pedaled” through the ocean before the conflict broke out. According to the data of Kpler206 million barrels have already “vanished” from the market in just 40 days. Logistical inertia has kept us in a false calm, but the shock wave is about to reach us. The report of Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)titled “The Strait of Hormuz in 8 Charts“, confirms that the strait has been “effectively closed” since March 2. Although Tehran announced an opening on April 17, the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) turned back just 24 hours later, threatening to attack any ship that collaborates with “the enemy.” In Xataka It is true that we have not yet noticed 100% the effect of the closure of Hormuz. The reasons are not at all optimistic The end of trust and the petrodollar What makes this crisis different from Suez is the trust factor. Analyst Widdershoven points out that the system It is not broken by geography, but by the perception of risk. When insurers withdraw “war risk” coverage, the strait ceases to exist economically, even though it is physically open. But the impact goes beyond the price of gasoline. Aaron Brown, in Bloombergissues a historic warning: “The war in Iran has just broken the petrodollar.” The 1974 pact, where the US guaranteed security in the Gulf in exchange for oil being sold in dollars and that money being reinvested in US debt, has collapsed. Countries like India or Türkiye are selling their US Treasury bonds to obtain liquidity and pay for increasingly expensive crude oil. For the first time in decades, central banks hold more gold than US bonds. Even if full peace were signed tomorrow, a return to normality is a technical chimera. Jacob Judah, in Financial Timesdescribes a “demining nightmare.” Iran has seeded the strait with sophisticated mines that can be camouflaged as rocks or buried in the seabed. Clearing a safe lane just a mile wide could take weeks; clear the strait completely, months. And, as Judah points out, the US Navy has neglected its mine warfare capability for decades. On the other hand, the recovery capacity of inventories is discouraging. Fatih Birol, director of the IEA, has declared to Reuters that this crisis is “more serious than those of 1973, 1979 and 2022 combined.” The IEA report from April estimates the collapse of global supply at 10.1 million of barrels daily. However, even producing an extra million barrels a day, it will take the world two years to recover pre-conflict inventory levels. Terrestrial alternatives are not the solution either. According to Holly Ellyatt for the CNBCthe pipelines that cross Saudi Arabia (East-West) and the UAE (Fujairah) only have the capacity to absorb between 3.5 and 5.5 million barrels per day, a fraction of the 20 million that normally flow through Hormuz. Behind the barrel numbers there is an invisible human drama. Wired tells the situation of 20,000 sailors trapped in the Gulf. Stories like that of PK Vijay, an Indian sailor on an abandoned ship, show how the complexity of maritime registration leaves workers in legal limbo, without pay and without the possibility of disembarking in a war zone. On a legal level, the situation is just as swampy. As the West condemns Iran, Maryam Jamshidi in The Nation argues that, technically, the US and Israel are the ones who have violated international law with their “war of aggression.” Iran, having not ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), has a legal basis to regulate passage through its territorial waters and collect tolls, something that Western powers describe as “economic hostage-taking.” {“videoId”:”x8j6422″,”autoplay”:false,”title”:”Declassified video of the clash between Russian fighters and the American drone”, “tag”:”united states”, “duration”:”42″} Suez was the warning, but Hormuz is confirmation that the era of just-in-time logistics and cheap, frictionless energy is over. The global economy has discovered, in the worst possible way, that its heart continues to beat to the rhythm of slow ships. As the analysis concludes OilPriceHormuz is no longer just a step; It is a tectonic fault. The world that emerges from this crisis will be one of “resilience over efficiency”, where trade will be more regional, more redundant and, inevitably, much more expensive. The price of security has become permanently embedded in the price of oil, and with it, the future of the world economy. Image |NASA GSFC Xataka |The US resurrected the “right of prey” to capture a ship from China: the problem is that China has taken note (function() { window._JS_MODULES = window._JS_MODULES || {}; var headElement = document.getElementsByTagName(‘head’)(0); if (_JS_MODULES.instagram) { var instagramScript = document.createElement(‘script’); instagramScript.src=”https://platform.instagram.com/en_US/embeds.js”; instagramScript.async = true; instagramScript.defer = true; headElement.appendChild(instagramScript); – The news The closure of Hormuz is the symptom of a much more threatening problem: the straits are no longer reliable was originally published in Xataka by Alba Otero .

Not only has the US just lost the “eye” that Hormuz watched, its nuclear aircraft carrier is in Africa for fear of being shot down

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Year 2019, an American surveillance drone more than 200 million of dollars disappears from the radar over the Gulf of Oman and, a few hours later, Iran shows its remains to the world on television. It was not the first time something like this had happened, but it was one of the most uncomfortable: a machine designed to see everything had been seen before it could react. Since then, in that part of the map, each silence in the systems begins to weigh more than it seems. Losing the “eye” that watched Hormuz. Confirmation of the fall of MQ-4C Triton a few hours ago is not a simple technical incident, but the loss of one of the most advanced pieces of the US surveillance system in the Persian Gulf. This drone, capable of operating at high altitude for hours and equipped with cutting-edge sensors, was key to monitor naval movementsdetect threats and maintain situational control around the strait. His disappearance, under circumstances still unclearleaves a most uncomfortable void at a time when every piece of information matters, especially in an environment where mines, drones and speedboats turn any mistake into a real threat. The “scared” aircraft carrier. Plus: the diversion of USS George H.W. Bush Going around Africa instead of crossing the Suez Canal is not just any logistical decision, but a symptom of that operational vulnerability What Washington is suffering from. The reason? Avoid passing through Bab el-Mandeb It means recognizing that even a nuclear aircraft carrier battle group, one of the most powerful assets in the world, cannot guarantee their security in a strait where actors such as the Houthis have demonstrated the ability to attack ships with drones and missiles. This detour not only lengthens times and complicates deployments, but also shows that military superiority does not always translate into freedom of movement. The uncomfortable precedent. Not only that. They counted the Forbes analysts that the decision of avoid Bab el-Mandeb It raises a disturbing question for the immediate future, because if this step is already considered too dangerous, what happens to Hormuz, much narrower, guarded and saturated with Iranian defensive systems? The logic is a huge question. Iran not only has more advanced technology than its regional allies, but also decades of specific preparation for that scenario. That makes any attempt to operate there a very high risk betand where even a single relevant impact could completely alter the strategic balance of the area. The strategic paradox. If you also want, what emerges from these movements is not that image of overflowing force that is presupposed, but rather of calculation and extreme fear. While American political discourse speaks of pressure, blockade and control, tactical decisions are revealing prudence, we would even say caution. The simple fact that the route of a nuclear aircraft carrier is redesigned to avoid a hot spot shows that the margin of error it’s tiny. And in an environment where a successful attack on a high-value ship could trigger disproportionate military and political consequences, the priority is no longer projecting strength and power, but avoiding losses at all costs. When losing a little is too much. In summary, the combination of drone crash Triton and the rnuclear aircraft carrier odeo paints a crystal clear picture: right now, the United States is not operating from a position of comfort, but rather in an extremely delicate balance. In that scenario, it doesn’t take a devastating blow to change the rules of the game, just with a symbolic one. Because a lost surveillance drone may be acceptable, even if it has the characteristics of the MQ-4C, but a damaged warship or a compromised nuclear aircraft carrier would be a very different story. Image | USN In Xataka | The US already has the first response to its blockade of Hormuz: a boomerang of unpredictable consequences called China In Xataka | The US has closed all exits from the Strait of Hormuz. And now Iran can put into practice what it has been preparing for 25 years

If you thought the crisis in Hormuz was enough, the war in Ukraine has triggered another maritime drama in Europe: the Gulf of Finland

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About five years ago, the container ship Ever Given became stuck in the Suez Canal for six daysblocking one of the most important commercial arteries in the world and leaving hundreds of ships trapped waiting. That incident, caused by a failed maneuver and adverse wind conditions, was enough to disrupt global supply chains in a matter of hours. A new seafront. As global attention focuses on the Strait of Hormuz, the war in Ukraine has opened another critical scenario much closer to Europe: the Gulf of Finlanda small but key space for Russian energy exports. There, far from spectacular drones or large fleets, the conflict manifests itself in a more silent way but just as revealingwith ships detained, routes blocked and growing tension between actors trying to avoid a direct escalation. This new focus demonstrates that the war is not only being fought on the land front, but also in the nerve centers of maritime trade. Ukraine attacks and a collapse. The situation has its origins in a clear kyiv strategy: to hit key russian ports to export oil, such as Ust-Luga and Primorsk, where it comes a fundamental part of the income that finances the war. The attacks have drastically reduced the operational capacity of these facilities, leaving dwhole days without activity and causing an immediate chain effect. The result: a unprecedented maritime traffic jamwith dozens of oil tankers (many of them linked to the so-called “floats in the shadows” Russian) accumulating waiting to be able to load. A system on the limit. They remembered this week in Political that this traffic jam in the Gulf of Finland is not just a striking image, but a symptom of something deeper: an energy and logistics system that begins to fracture under the pressure of war. Unlike conventional vessels, these tankers cannot be easily redirected to other ports due to the risk of being detained or sanctioned, which forced to remain anchored for days or weeks. As a result, there is an unusual concentration of aging and, in many cases, unsafe ships in European waters that were not prepared to absorb that volume. Europe trapped between control and escalation. Under this scenario, countries like Estonia and Finland They are in a particularly delicate position, since, despite being within the NATO framework, they have chosen not to intervene directly against these ships. The reason is clear: any attempt to stop or board an oil tanker could trigger a Russian military responseas already happened when a Russian fighter intervened to protect one of these ships. Since then, Moscow has reinforced its naval presence in the area, making it clear that it considers these strategic routes a red line. The Mirror of Hormuz. There is no doubt, what happens in the Gulf of Finland connects directly with the crisis in Hormuz: In both cases, the war moves towards maritime straits where traffic control becomes a strategic tool. The difference is that there is no formal block here, but an indirect disruption which generates similar effects, with stopped ships, tense routes and altered markets. In both scenarios, it is enough to interfere enough to collapse the system, and also without the need for a total shutdown. A war that spreads across the map. If you like, the result is a conflict that is no longer limited to Ukraine either to the Middle Eastbut it extends to the critical nodes of global trade, affecting Europe directly. The Gulf of Finland has thus become in another hot spot where energy, legal and military interests intersect, with an extremely fragile and volatile balance. And what seemed like a localized war is proving to have a much greater scope, generating new sources of tension that, like in Hormuz, can escalate quickly. without prior notice. Image | LAC, NormanEinstein In Xataka | If fog was deadly in Ukraine’s winter, spring is offering Russia a key advantage: greenery In Xataka | Ukraine is close to what no one has achieved in a war: shooting down missiles for less than a million dollars

The US already has the first response to its blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. A boomerang of unpredictable consequences: China

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During a crisis with Japan in 2019, China constantly sent patrol boats and government vessels to the disputed waters of the senkaku islandsmaintaining an almost daily presence without completely crossing the line of direct confrontation. That strategy, based on sustained pressure without shock frontal, showed how Beijing can protect its interests at sea by playing on an ambiguous terrain where every move counts. The block changes the board. USA has finally activated the naval blockade of Iranian ports in response to the failure of negotiations, deploying ships, special forces and interdiction capabilities to cut off the flow of oil and economically suffocate Tehran. The operation does not seek to completely close the Strait of Hormuz, but to control who enters and who leaves of the Iranian energy system, which involves intercepting, diverting or even boarding ships in transit. This movement, long studied by the Pentagon, marks a qualitative leap in war, since it transfers pressure from the air and land to the sea, where the legal, military and commercial implications are much more diffuse. and potentially explosive. The reality of global trade. The fundamental problem of the blockade is not only in its military execution, but in its fit with the global system of energy transport, where the majority of the ships are not Iranian, but from third countries such as India, Iraq or, especially China. Intercepting or pressuring these ships in international waters introduces an entirely different dimension, one where the line between military action and global economic conflict is blurred.becomes extremely thin. Thus, each attempt to stop this flow not only affects Iran, but also removes more crude oil from the market, raises prices and transfers the political and economic cost to the blocker himself. Iran and the long term. I remembered the weekend the new york times that, far from collapsing, Iran has demonstrated remarkable strategic resilience, relying on alternative routes, land trade with Asia and financial networks that include Asian, especially Chinese, banks and partners. Its economy, although under pressure, continues to function thanks to indirect exports, accumulated income and access to credit, while control of the strait allows it to continue conditioning the global energy market. In this context, the time plays in your favor: The longer the crisis continues, the greater the wear and tear on the United States and its allies, both in economic and political terms. Permanent military friction point. The blockade forces the US navy to operate in a extremely delicate environmentone where any interaction with suspicious vessels can escalate quickly. The need to board oil tankers, manage crews or redirect cargo turns each operation into a possible international incidentespecially if those ships are protected or linked to state actors. Added to this is the latent threat from Iran, which maintains sufficient capacity (missiles, drones, fast boats) to turn any mistake or specific confrontation into a major climb. The boomerang effect: China. The great consequence of the blockade at this time has not been long in coming, and it is China’s reactionthe main buyer of Iranian oil and a key player in the region. Beijing has made it clear through a statement that it will continue to defend its energy and commercial interests, keeping its routes open and warning against any external interference. There is no doubt, this introduces a completely new risk to the conflict: that of a direct or indirect shock between US forces and assets linked to China, whether in the form of tankers, escorts or diplomatic and economic pressure. Furthermore, the Asian giant has response tools that go beyond the military sphere, from the use of its commercial weight to the control of critical resources. Dead end scenario. The result is a situation in which the attempt to strangle Iran It becomes a system of crossed tensions with multiple actors, where each movement generates new frictions. Blocking does not guarantee a quick resolutionbut it does increase the chances of miscalculations, incidents at sea and escalations that are difficult to contain. Precisely in this unstable balance, the United States not only faces Iran, but an environment where the consequences rebound outside the region, with China as the actor who turns a regional operation into a first order global problem. Image | US Navy In Xataka | The problem in Hormuz is not that it is closed: it is that Iran has “lost the keys” and without them the balance is broken In Xataka | The most buoyant market right now is selling streaming and satellite images of US movements to Iran.

The world trembles over Hormuz oil while ignoring what feeds 50% of the planet

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Geopolitics has a curious tendency to make us focus our attention on a specific point and not look at everything around us. With the scale of the tension in the Strait of Hormuzall eyes were on crude oil and the price of gasoline; However, experts warn that fertilizers are also in the spotlight. And the reality is that its collapse can cause a lack of food in our crops, since the vast majority depend on it. An invisible engine. Although the world seems to have forgotten about the fertilizers that arrive through the Strait of Hormuz, the reality is that we can affirm that humanity cannot exist without organic chemistry. And it is no wonder, because more than half of the food produced worldwide is available thanks to mineral fertilizers, as the IFDC points out. If we go further, the studies point out that nitrogen fertilizers Synthetics sustain the diet of almost half of the world’s population. And the worst of all is that, without this mineral contribution, global harvests will be directly reduced by half, so we are not talking about a product that improves performance marginally, but rather we are talking about the pillar of a food system that supports 8 billion people. A bottleneck. In this context of absolute dependence, the media focus is paradoxical. International attention and logistical surveillance focus almost exclusively on fossil fuels, ignoring the fact that fertilizers are a highly concentrated industry and closely linked to natural gas. But organizations like UNCTAD and media like EFE they have put figures to disaster by estimating that a third of global maritime fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This means that logistical interruptions in the Persian Gulf directly affect millions of tons of agricultural inputs, which for the UN It is undoubtedly a major impact on global food security. There are no reservations. In recent weeks we have seen how different governments have announced with great fanfare the release of thousands of barrels of oil in national reserves. A strategy that has been built in recent years to be able to cushion this type of geopolitical shocks, but with fertilizers there is no such thing. It has consequences. The analyzes of the experts point out in this case that the interruption of the fertilizer chain has a full impact on the field, since any interruption has a full impact on the bank. Here both the FAO and the World Bank They have been warning for months that the suspension of shipments from the Gulf can skyrocket food prices almost instantly, severely affecting countries that depend on food imports. But the problem is that right now there is a significant lack of infrastructure, since we are seeing that the sector is dominated by a few players such as Russia, China, India and the United States. This, added to the shortage of long-term storage networks, makes us think that the price of food may suffer a large increase in the coming weeks, as well as have a bad harvest of 2026. Measures to alleviate it. The Government of Spain recently approved a new text that, in addition to lower energy-related taxesalso opted to inject money into the primary sector. In this case, direct aid was offered to partially compensate for this increase in fertilizers with the aim of ensuring that the increase was not transferred entirely to the shopping basket. Images | James Baltz Jonathan Cooper In Xataka | You’ve probably never heard of urea. The missiles in Iran are destroying their production, and that will affect your food

We wanted electric cars and solar panels. The Hormuz blockade has returned us to the era of coal and nuclear energy

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The Third Gulf War has caused what decades of climate summits tried to avoid: the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has erased 20% of the world’s supply of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in one fell swoop. Faced with the imminent threat of a large-scale blackout, governments around the world have put their energy transition plans in a drawer. However, to keep the lights on and the economy afloat, the immediate response has been to look back to the past: burn coal by the piece and resurrect nuclear power. The mirage of “bridge fuel.” Asia buys more than 80% of the crude oil and gas that transits through Hormuz, but the problem goes far beyond a simple ship jam. This crisis has destroyed one of the great pillars of the energy transition. As explained The New York TimesLiquefied Natural Gas (LNG) was sold during the last decade as the perfect “bridge fuel”: less polluting than coal, more reliable than intermittent renewables and capable of being transported by sea to any corner. That bridge just blew up. The damage is far from being repaired, and it is estimated that the infrastructure attacked It will take years to operate again. Added to this is that Iran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a kind of maritime “VIP discotheque”deciding by hand which ships can cross. No one can depend on LNG ships to guarantee their sovereignty. The main problem: live without pantry. But there is a technical factor that has turned this crisis into an immediate catastrophe: lack of storage. Unlike the West, most Asian countries lack underground gas stores, leaving them completely exposed to supply disruptions. While nations like South Korea can last up to 52 days and Japan about three weeks, Taiwan walk on a wire extremely fragile, with a legal security threshold of just 11 or 12 days of reserves. Without a “pantry” to store the LNG, Asia has no room for maneuver: if the ship does not arrive on Monday, the blackout begins on Tuesday. This structural vulnerability is what has forced an unconditional surrender to coal. Coal’s dirty lifesaver. As Jonathan Teubner, the aforementioned analyst, perfectly summarizes by Financial Times: “No coal ship passes through the Strait of Hormuz.” That is the key to everything. Being a cheap, abundant resource that does not depend on the troubled waters of the Middle East, the most polluting mineral has returned with a bang. According to FortuneSouth Korea has removed the 80% operational cap for its coal plants, a decision that has drawn the ire of environmental groups who accuse the government of using “energy security as a pretext.” Thailand, for its part, is restarting plants it had dismantled last year. From Seoul to New Delhi: the dilemma of the powers. Japan, one of the world’s largest gas importers, has also bowed to the evidence, allowing its least efficient coal plants to operate at full capacity for a year. Energy desperation is such that in Japan There are already voices demanding cancel the emissions trading system, calling it a “death sentence” for the coal plants they now need to survive. In India, the situation is critical. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has warned of a “major challenge” ahead of the summer. To avoid massive blackouts, New Delhi has commanded giants such as Tata Power and Adani Power operate at full capacity, while Bangladesh seeks multi-billion dollar loans. Sam Chua, analyst at Rystad Energy, sums it up in Financial Times: We are not seeing a transition, but a brutal “destruction of gas demand.” Although it is not that simple: the money wall. This coal revival has a glass ceiling. As experts point out in Japan Timesthe banking sector flatly refuses to finance the construction of new coal plants for fear of being left with “stranded assets” (stranded assets) in the face of global climate commitments. That is, countries are squeezing their dirty old infrastructure to the last drop, but they can’t build new ones. Charcoal is the assisted respirator, but not the cure. The atom as a shield: the great redemption of uranium. Panic too has broken atomic taboos. Taiwan, whose government promised a “nuclear-free homeland” in 2016, has announced plans to restart two decommissioned reactors. The Philippines has charted a fast track to atomic energy by 2032, and Vietnam has just struck a deal with Russia to build its first reactors. Uranium is no longer seen as a threat, but rather as the only way to protect the electricity supply against maritime blackmail. The domino effect reaches Europe. What started as an emergency solution in Asia is already infecting the West. The crisis has forced the European Union to break its own historical taboos, admitting that Europe committed a “strategic mistake” by moving away from atomic energy. Brussels has already put 200 million euros on the table to develop Small Modular Reactors (SMR) by 2030. This shift shows a continental fracture: while France entrenches itself protecting its nuclear investment of 300 billion euros and blocks energy interconnections with the Iberian Peninsula, Europe assumes that it cannot guarantee its future solely with the sun and the wind. War rationing in the 21st century. While the plants uproot, the daily suffocation hit the streets. Philippines has declared a “national energy emergency.” In South Korea, the government implores families to take short showers and Samsung has prohibited its employees from driving to work based on the license plate. In Thailand, officials operate with work weeks for four days and they are prohibited from wearing ties in order to raise the temperature of the air conditioning. The collapse is so severe that Thai ambulances have taken to Facebook to beg gas stations to reserve diesel for them to save lives. The collateral damage. The scope of this blockage transcends the electricity bill. If the conflict lasts until June, Bloomberg alert that the barrel could touch $200, a price designed to cause “demand destruction.” This would lock global inflation at a chronic … Read more

Iran has turned Hormuz into the entrance to a VIP nightclub. And Spain enters the guest list and the US stays at the door

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Spain has never been a great military power, but it has been a key player in energy routes. In fact, more than 60% of the gas Its consumption arrives by ship and its refineries are among the most important in southern Europe. Furthermore, its geographical position makes it a natural bridge between Africa, America and the Mediterranean, which means that any change in global energy flows ends up impacting, directly or indirectly, its economy. Iran as oil watchdog. what is happening in Hormuz At this moment it breaks one of the great premises of the global order of recent decades. The naval superiority of the United States was assumed to be overwhelming, backed by a navy that far surpasses the rest of the world in capacity and deployment, and which guaranteed the security of the great sea routes. However, Iran has shown that it is not necessary to dominate the oceans to control a key point. It is enough to have the ability to deny access in a small space, combine asymmetric military pressure and assume the cost of the conflict. The result is that Washington, despite its power, is tied hand and foot and cannot reopen the strait without escalating the war to levels much more dangerous. This turns Iran into a kind of “watchdog” for world oil, capable of deciding who passes and who doesn’tand marks a paradigm shift where the control of strategic bottlenecks outweighs global military supremacy. A tight as a VIP nightclub. Yes, because Iran has transformed the Strait of Hormuz into something more than an energetic chokepoint: has converted it in a business which works in the same way as the door of an exclusive nightclub, that is, a space where not just anyone enters, but only those who are on the list. And there Spain appears among the guests (what have confirmed explicitly) and, of course, the “hostile ships” of the United States and Israel are clearly banned. In other words, they have established a system selective access that redefines control of one of the most critical routes on the planet and turns geopolitics into a direct filter on who can trade and who cannot. Spain and its no to war. Impossible to ignore the government statement Spanish with Iran’s latest move. Pedro Sánchez’s refusal to align with Donald Trump’s strategy broke the dynamic common in Europe. Spain blocked the use from its bases, refused to actively participate in the operation, and turned “no to war” into foreign policy. That movement, which seemed isolated, began to influence other countries. Germany and Italy, for their part, they took distance. And Europe stopped moving as a bloc, showing that there is room to challenge Washington without completely breaking the alliance. The “prize”. It remains to be seen if in the end it will be “poisoned”, but the truth is that this Spanish positioning has had immediate consequences. Iran has shown a special disposition towards Spain, facilitating ship transit linked to their country in a context in which the passage is practically closed for many others. This preferential treatment turns neutrality into an operational advantage tangible, but also introduces a delicate dimension. Spain gains room for maneuver in the short term, but at the cost of exposing itself to criticism and pressure from its allies, critics who may interpret such access as a dangerous concession in a highly polarized environment. The Iranian model that no one saw coming. I was counting this morning the financial times that Tehran is designing a maritime traffic control system much more structured than it might seem. Transit no longer depends solely on navigation, but of a process which combines diplomacy, supervision and, in some cases, high payments to guarantee passage. As? Apparently, the ships must coordinate with the Iranian authorities, undergo verifications and follow specific routes under surveillance. This “handmade” model that few saw coming in the middle of the war introduces a de facto “toll” that transforms the strait into an economic and political tool at the same time, reinforcing Iran’s ability to influence global trade. A global bottleneck. The impact of this change is enormous if we take into account the importance of the Strait of Hormuz. How have we been countingit passes approximately one fifth of world oil, as well as gas and essential raw materials for the global economy. The war has reduced traffic drastically, has increased attacks on ships and has generated a situation of great uncertainty for thousands of sailors. What was once a predictable route has become a high risk spacewith immediate consequences on energy prices and market stability. From highway to guarded corridor. They explained in The Guardian through a visual analysis that the functioning of the strait has also changed in operational terms. The usual routes have been replaced by controlled runners closer to the Iranian coast, where authorities can directly supervise transiting ships. This system allows almost individualized traffic management, reducing the volume of passage and increasing control on each vessel. The result is that Hormuz has stopped behaving as an international maritime highway and begins to function as a regulated access, where each movement depends on prior authorization. Consequences. In the long term, this model opens the door for Iran to obtain important income and consolidate a tool for strategic pressure on world trade. However, also raises legal issues and diplomatic tensions significant, since it questions basic principles of international maritime law. Given this scenario, other countries could accelerate the search for alternatives, such as new energy infrastructure or different trade routes (China and Russia they are already doing it). If this process is consolidated, the result could be a system fragmentation global, where access to key resources depends increasingly on political decisions and less on norms shared for years. Image | eutrophication&hypoxiaNARA, US Navy, اری In Xataka | Israel has found the secret route of the war in Ukraine: it has just bombed the “Uber of shahed drones” between Russia and Iran In Xataka | Iran is … Read more

to open Hormuz the US is no longer going to bomb, but rather something more dangerous

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In the Persian Gulf there is an enclave of just a few square kilometers that, despite its size, became bombed hundreds of times during the war between Iran and Iraq in the 1980s while continuing to function as one of the main crude oil outlets in the world. Their history shows that sometimes the smallest places are also the hardest to replace. The war is changing the verb. Over the weekend, the arrival of a second amphibious group US launch into the Gulf, with thousands of Marines on board, is not just another tactical move but rather a sign that the war is possibly coming to a head. a new phase: to open the Strait of Hormuz, Washington is no longer thinking only of bombing, but of doing something much more dangerous, taking the key territory. How have we been countingKharg, the small island off the Iranian coast, concentrated near the 90% of exports of the country’s oil and has become the true center of gravity of the conflict, not because it is large or defensible, but because whoever controls it control the flow economy that sustains the regime. After weeks of remote attacks, the accelerated dispatch of amphibious forces indicates that the United States is preparing the option that involves boots on the ground, a qualitative leap that transforms an air campaign into a potential occupation operation. The plan is not new, it is from 40 years ago. I remembered the financial times this morning that what today seems like an improvised escalation actually has much deeper roots, because the idea of ​​taking Kharg is not new, but is part of a script that Trump had already outlined in the eightieswhen he openly argued that the United States should directly hit Iranian oil assets to force concessions. So talked about “go and take the island” as a response to any challenge in the Gulf, and four decades later that same scheme (ultimatum, economic pressure and decisive use of force) reappears almost no changes. The difference is that now it is not campaign rhetoric, but a very real option on the table, turning an old strategic intuition into an operational plan with global implications. The economic switch of war. The logic behind this move seems quite obvious: Iran has managed resist bombing and, at the same time, maintain its crude oil exports while blocking those of its rivals, turning the closure of Hormuz into an economic weapon that puts pressure on the rest of the world. From that perspective, for the United States, taking Kharg would break that dynamic by cutting off Tehran’s main source of income and striking back in the same area, the economic one, where Iran is trying to win the war. In other words, it is not so much about destroying as to control and taketo use the island as a negotiating lever to force the reopening of the strait and, ultimately, force the regime to accept imposed conditions from outside. The impossible operation. On paper, the capture of the island could be relatively fastsupported by previous attacks and the deployment of amphibious units capable of assaulting key points such as the airport and port facilities. However, the difficulty is not in conquering Kharg, but rather in holding it: its proximity to the Iranian coast makes it an exposed target to missiles, drones and constant attacks, while American supply lines would be vulnerable in an environment saturated with asymmetric threats. That is to say, the scenario looks less like the traditional blitzkrieg campaigns of the Americans and more like a war of attritionwhere holding a small island can become a large-scale strategic problem. The risk of escalation without return. Most analysts agree on the same diagnosis: the real danger is not only military, but political and economic. Such an assault operation would imply a direct escalation against the economic heart of Iran, with unforeseeable consequences: from regional attacks to energy infrastructures (Iran, in fact, has already warned with this) to a prolonged rise in oil prices and increasing pressure on the United States to exit the conflict. Furthermore, it must be taken into account that there is no guarantee that taking the island will force Tehran to give in. In fact, it could, on the contrary, further harden its stance and widen the conflict. In this unstable balance, Kharg Island has ceased to be just a military objective and has become a strategic bet high risk for Washington: a move that could change the course of the war… or trap it in an even more dangerous phase. Image | USN In Xataka | We wonder if it is safe to fly now that there are more drones than Ryanair planes: the answer is an Ockham’s razor In Xataka | The weapon to liberate Hormuz has fled 6,000 km from the war. And that just means the US is preparing for what comes next.

Spain has the cheapest wholesale energy in Europe in the midst of the Hormuz crisis

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The outbreak of war in Iran on February 28 and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz have plunged the world, overnight, into an energy crisis of alarming proportions. In the midst of this global chaos, a European country is resisting the challenge much better than its neighbors: Spain. A shield in front of the market. To understand why electricity in Spain has not become more expensive at the same rate as in the rest of the continent, it is essential to look at how the electricity market works. The European system is “marginalist”meaning that the most expensive technology needed to meet the demand for a given day (usually gas) is what dictates the final price of all electricity. The day after the start of the conflict in the Middle East, the price of gas rose by 55%, according to Euronews. However, the impact on Spanish bills is being cushioned, thanks to the fact that the share of clean energy in the country’s generation mix already exceeds 60%. Since 2019, Spain has added more than 40 GW of renewable capacity, doubling its wind and solar farms. Added to this structural deployment is a key seasonal factor: a solid spring “hydraulic cushion”, with the reservoirs located at 82.6% of their capacity. The data of the Iberian exception. The x-ray of the European wholesale markets, reflected in the records of Energy-chartsconfirms this gap in a very visual way: The Spanish daytime miracle: Spain’s graphics during February and March They show almost absolute dominance of renewable generation and hydraulic pumping. This massive injection sinks prices from 11:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., becoming free, or even registering negative prices, because many plants find it more profitable to bid at zero price than to assume the very high costs of stopping and restarting their machines. The fossil condemnation of Germany and Italy: The European contrast is devastating and explains the asymmetric impact of the war. German market data for the same period reveal a heavy dependence on non-renewable sources, illustrated by a thick gray strip of fossil generation that sustains their system. The case of Italy is even more illustrative about the dangers of depending on foreign gas: its graphs show a huge constant load of non-renewable generation, which condemns the transalpine country to maintain a systematically high and flat price curve throughout the day. The “green shield” night fissure: However, we are not invulnerable. As analyst Antonio Aceituno, from the consulting firm Tempos Energía, warns, in Europa Pressthe Spanish balance is broken when evening falls. When the sun disappears, gas combined cycles begin to cover demand, returning tension to prices. This explains why in March the monthly average It woke up abruptly to 64.05 euros/MWh, with nighttime peaks of up to 247.15 euros/MWh. It is empirical proof that, no massive batteries to save the sunat eight in the afternoon we are still at the mercy of what happens in the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, time is against us. Antonio The Tempos Energía analyst warns that our precious “hydraulic shield” could begin to give way at the beginning of summer if the conflict becomes entrenched. In the worst case scenario, the June bill could jump above 100 euros per MWh, reaching the feared 120 euros between July and August. A halfway transition. The current energy crisis has left an irrefutable lesson: renewables are our best social shield. The deployment of recent years has prevented Spain from suffering the same financial drowning as its neighbors. As energy financing expert Gerard Reid reflects, in Euronewsit is preferable to depend on China to import a solar panel once every 25 years, than to depend on oil and gas from the Persian Gulf every day. But the transition is painfully incomplete. As long as lack of storage forces us to turn on gas plants when the sun sets, our pockets will continue to be hostage to global volatility. Whether due to a military drone over the Strait of Hormuz or due to political retaliation in the Oval Office, Spain’s true energy independence will not come until we are able to massively save the sun and wind that we have left over. Image | Photo by Alexis Presa on Unsplash and Photo by Jakub Zerdzicki on Unsplash Xataka | Skyscrapers are full of glass, so some Spanish researchers have had an idea: let them serve as “solar panels”

One trick is unblocking the passage of ships in Hormuz without the need for drones or escorts. And the US is not going to be amused

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In 2023, some of the world’s largest oil tankers have already begun sailing with transponders off in risk areas to avoid being tracked, a known practice like “dark shipping” which makes it difficult to know what cargo they are transporting and where they are going. In scenarios of maximum tension, these opaque movements tend to multiply and anticipate deeper changes in how it circulates really the energy for the world. The new rules. Although it may seem like it, in reality, the Strait of Hormuz is not formally closed, but in practice it has stopped be a neutral space to become a conditional passage through Iran, where transit depends on implicit authorizations and specific routes under its control. In the midst of attacks, mines and a constant threat that has paralyzed hundreds of ships, some oil tankers have managed to cross a simple tactic: follow trajectories close to the Iranian coast, avoiding the usual corridors and suggesting the existence of a selective passage system that redefines who can circulate and under what conditions. Tehran’s invisible filter. The ships that manage to cross the strait do not do so by chance, but within a pattern increasingly clear: negotiated transit, “acceptable” flags and destinations aligned with countries that do not directly participate in the conflict or without directly “friends.” There it appears mainly India and China along with neutral actors who have begun to secure shipments through diplomatic contacts, while ships linked to the West remain outside or directly exposed. This model allows Iran to maintain a minimum flow of energy that avoids a total collapse of the market, but at the same time turns the passage into a tool of geopolitical pressure, where each transit is a concession and not a right. Minimum flow with global impact. Although the number of ships that manage to cross is still a fraction of the usual, that small trickle is enough to influence prices energy and avoid further escalation, especially towards Asia. That said, the bottleneck is enormous, with hundreds of ships waiting and logistics extremely limited in a passage that already functions as a two-lane highway. The constant threat of drones, mines or specific attacks maintains the risk at maximum levels and deters the majority of operators, consolidating a system where the exception, and not the normality, sets the pace of commerce. China in the lead. In this context, China emerges as one of the main beneficiaries of this selective system, absorbing much of the crude oil that manages to get out of the Gulf and using its ambiguous position to keep open supply lines that others cannot guarantee. In other words, the appearance of ships with Chinese ties among the few that cross the strait reinforces the idea that access to Hormuz no longer depends only on geography, but rather on political alignment, consolidating a transit network where Beijing gains margin while other actors lose access. The Eurasian plan B. In parallel, China and Russia are accelerating construction of structural alternatives to vulnerable routes such as Hormuz, promoting its own logistics corridors that include lto Arctic Route and terrestrial networks across Eurasia. With investments in ports, icebreaking vessels and independent logistics systems, both countries seek to reduce their exposure to bottlenecks controlled by third parties and create a commercial architecture more resilient and politically aligned. This strategy not only responds to the current crisis, but also aims at a lasting reorganization of global trade. An uncomfortable scenario for the United States. There is no doubt, the combination of a partially narrow controlled by Iranan energy flow that is redirected towards Asia and development of alternative routes Outside of Western influence, it sets up an increasingly unfavorable scenario for the United States. As Washington tries to respond with naval escorts and pressure international (although at the last minute started again back saying that it does not need help from the allies), its capacity to guarantee free transit is limited compared to a system where a mine or a drone is enough to paralyze everything. The result is a silent but profound change: the control of energy flows begins to depend less on direct military force and more of political and logistical networks that escape US control. Image | x In Xataka | The war with Iran is leading the US to a plan B that no one imagined: avoiding the nuclear objective at all costs In Xataka | The US nuclear supercarrier has a problem: its marines are sleeping on the ground in the middle of the war with Iran

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