Hormuz

This is how Russia has become the great winner of the Hormuz crisis

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On Thursday evening, March 12, the Swedish Coast Guard boarded the tanker Sea Owl I south of Trelleborg, off the coast of Sweden. The next day, the authorities They arrested their captainof Russian nationality, and on Sunday a court ordered his formal arrest for using allegedly false documents to operate the ship. This 228-meter-long ship sails under suspicion of using a false flag, in this case from Comoros, and is on the European Union sanctions list. As explained The Moscow TimesAlthough the ship, which set sail from Brazil, claimed to be heading to Estonia, the Swedish Coast Guard believes its actual destination was the Russian port of Primorsk. This is one more link in the “shadow fleet” that Moscow uses to evade sanctions. In fact, just a few days before, Sweden had seized another ship, the cargo ship Caffasuspected of transporting stolen Ukrainian grain. A lethal bottleneck. But while the West tightens the noose in the icy Baltic, the true collapse looms in the south. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, turned into an impassable “digital fog” by the war between the United States, Israel and Iran, has suffocated the world energy market. According to The New York TimesIndia—highly dependent on imports from the Middle East—had been in agony for months after Donald Trump’s administration imposed punitive tariffs to force it to stop buying Russian crude. Without quick access to crude oil from the Persian Gulf and with the US ban on Moscow, the Asian giant was looking into the abyss. Indian state refineries were forced to close entire processing units due to the simple physical shortage of oil. Washington’s retreat. Faced with Iran’s direct threat to shoot up the barrel of Brent at 200 dollarsthe United States has had no choice but to give in. The US Treasury Department has issued a temporary emergency waiver. This license, valid for 30 days, allows India and other countries to buy Russian oil stranded at sea. Although Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent justified the measure by stating that it seeks to stabilize world prices and that it will not bring “significant financial benefits” to the Kremlin, the reality of the markets dictates a very different ruling. Russia makes money (and legally). Indeed, the main beneficiary of this crisis is the Kremlin, and it is also doing so completely legally in the eyes of Washington. According to data from Argus Media collected by Bloomberg, Prices for Russian Ural crude oil delivered to India’s west coast have hit a record high of $98.93 per barrel. This historic rebound has occurred precisely after the United States expanded its permission to buy Russian crude oil in the midst of the upward spiral caused by the war in the Middle East. The humiliating discount that Russia was forced to apply has vanished, reducing it to just $4.80 per barrel compared to the global Brent index. At the diplomatic level, Moscow also gains muscle. According to the Anadolu Agencythe foreign ministers of Russia and India are already talking to use alternative forums to the West, such as the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), to mediate the de-escalation of the Middle East. The great irony of international sanctions. On the one hand, Sweden spends police resources raiding Russian ghost ships in the frigid Baltic Sea. On the other hand, offices in Washington are forced to urgently legalize the purchase of crude oil from Moscow to avoid the economic collapse of India and a global recession. In the end, geopolitics always ends up surrendering to the laws of thermodynamics and infrastructure: the world needs physical energy and, faced with the closure of Hormuz, the West has had to swallow and pay in gold price for the oil of the same country it was trying to suffocate. Image | Photo by Kelly Sikkema on Unsplash Xataka | The big winner of the Hormuz blockade is the country that the West has tried to suffocate for years: Russia

The US has asked all its allies in Hormuz for help. The answer he received was anticipated by Spain before anyone else: “no”

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In 1988, during the call “tanker war” between Iran and Iraq, a single low-cost naval device managed to seriously damage to a state-of-the-art American frigate in the Persian Gulf. That crisis left an uncomfortable lesson for the great powers: in the busiest maritime straits on the planet, a handful of well-placed threats are enough to put entire fleets in check and alter the balance of the world economy. A global appeal. Two weeks after the start of the war against Iran, the United States finds itself facing a paradox most disturbing. Despite the massive bombings against Iranian military installations and the blows against its strategic infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz (the energy artery through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes) still blocked for much of the maritime traffic. The White House has responded with a unusual request: ask other powers to send warships to escort trade and reopen the passage. In fact, Trump’s call has not only been directed at traditional allies such as the United Kingdom or France, but also at rival powers. like china. This movement reflects, once again, an increasingly evident reality: the war is much more difficult to end than Washington expected. Reluctant allies. The international response has been prudent when not directly evasive. Spain has been the clearestbut the United Kingdom has insisted that the priority should be reduce escalation military rather than expanding naval deployment. For its part, Japan has recalled that its pacifist constitution limits participation in armed conflicts. South Korea has limited itself to promise consultations with Washington, while France has suggested that could participate in naval escorts, but only if the conflict is stabilized first. In other words, the allies recognize the strategic problem of the strait, but none seems willing to assume the political and military cost of fully entering the war. A notice to NATO. The frustration of the White House has ended up translating into a very direct message through a interview in Financial Times. Trump has publicly warned that NATO could face to a “very bad future” if its allies do not help the United States reopen the strait. The president’s argument is simple: Europe depends on the oil that passes through Hormuz and should help protect that route. In its vision of things, Washington has supported its allies in crises such as the war in Ukraine and now expect reciprocity. The problem is that this pressure comes at a time when many European governments fear being dragged into a military escalation with unforeseeable consequences. Appeal to China. In the face of Western coldness, the American appeal surprisingly included also to Beijing. China buys large quantities of Iranian oil and depends largely on the energy flow that passes through Hormuz. For Washington, this dependence could turn China into an actor interested in stabilizing the area. However, the maneuver has a complex diplomatic background: The United States is asking for help to resolve a war that it itself has started, and it is doing so even from a power with which it maintains a global strategic rivalry. Support for Iran. And while Washington seeks support from the most unexpected places, Tehran has responded proving that it is not isolated. The Iranian government has confirmed that maintains political, economic and even military cooperation with Russia and China. The relationship with Moscow has narrowed especially since the Ukraine war, in which Russia has used Iranian drones as part of its arsenal. With Beijing, the link is supported above all in energy trade and in long-term economic agreements. For Iran, this support does not necessarily imply direct intervention, but it does reinforce its position in the face of Western pressure. The strategic letter. we have been counting. Control of the Strait of Hormuz has become the main instrument of Iranian pressure. Tehran maintains that the passage is not closed to world trade, but only to the ships of the United States, Israel and their direct allies. This narrative seeks to present the situation as a selective retaliation and not as a global blockade. At the same time, it allows Iran use the threat on energy trafficking as a tool to force other countries to become diplomatically involved in the conflict. Economic war underway. Meanwhile, the impact on energy markets is already visible. The price of oil has exceeded $100 per barrel and several countries fear that the rise in energy prices will cause new inflationary tensions. For Asian economies, especially dependent on Gulf crude oil, the blockade represents a direct risk to their growth. That economic pressure is part of the Iranian strategic calculation: turn the conflict into a global problem that forces other powers to pressure Washington to find a solution. Late help. In that context, the implicit response of Iran is quite clear. In his view, the war has entered a phase in which calls for international cooperation no longer change the balance of the conflict. US attacks on strategic targets like the oil island of Kharg They have raised the tension to a level that makes any rapid retreat difficult. In other words, if Washington now seeks external support to close the war, Tehran interprets that it does so when the opportunity to avoid that escalation it’s already happened. An unexpected script. The final paradox begins to become increasingly evident, because the United States insists that has seriously weakened to Iran and that it can reopen the strait “one way or another”, but at the same time it is requesting international help to do it. This contradiction reveals that keeping Hormuz open under constant threat of mines, drones and missiles requires military coordination much larger than expected. Thus, the war that began as an air campaign fast has become a strategic challenge that involves (or seeks to involve) the entire international system. An increasingly complex board. The result is a scenario in which traditional alliances are shown extremely cautiousthe rival powers support Iran and the world economy is beginning to feel the impact of the … Read more

Asia is hoarding all the world’s LNG due to Hormuz panic

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In global energy markets, alarm bells do not always ring loudly; Sometimes all you have to do is watch where the boats are sailing. Right now, the canary in the mine of the looming crisis is the frenzy of Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) buyers. As the conflict in the Middle East escalates, Asia’s major powers are preparing for supply disruptions that could last months. The prolonged paralysis at the world’s largest export plant is stifling global supply and skyrocketing prices. As Dai Jiaquan explainschief economist at the CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute, companies should prepare “contingency plans” for a two- to four-month disruption. Far from expecting a quick resolution to the attacks between the United States, Israel and Iran, Asia is sweeping up all available gas. The Qatar blackout and the buying fever. The origin of this panic has exact coordinates: the Strait of Hormuz. The trigger was an attack with Iranian drones that hit the strategic facilities of Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, forcing the state company QatarEnergy to cease production. The impact is massive: Qatar supplies 20% of the world’s LNG and, without Hormuz, there is no alternative route. According to the consulting firm AMEthis stoppage removes 1.5 million tons of gas from the global market every week. Added to this is an unprecedented logistical blockade with some 150 ships paralyzed in the area. Faced with this abyss, purchases have skyrocketed. According to BloombergTaiwan has already fully secured its supply for March and April, and is now actively purchasing to cover the month of May. Bangladesh managed to secure shipments for April and is already evaluating purchases from May onwards. For their part, Thailand and South Korea seek to ensure immediate deliveries, while in India, the company Gail India Ltd. barely managed to reserve a shipment in March after several failed attempts. Europe vs. Asia. What is coming is a direct trade war: Europe and Asia fighting for the same gas. According to Financial Timesthe contest is a chilling reminder of the crisis of 2022 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. To this battle, Europe arrives with its defenses low: its gas storages are barely 30% because companies did not fill them due to high future prices, a phenomenon known as backwardation. Furthermore, Spain, despite having regasification plants, cannot act as a total lifeline for the continent due to its lack of interconnections through the Pyrenees. Historically, Asia consumes more gas in summer due to air conditioners, creating a desperate urgency that is already reflected in prices. As explained BloombergLNG spot prices in Asia are around $18 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). This represents an 80% increase in price compared to pre-conflict levels, despite having fallen from a recent peak of $25. The Asian benchmark JKM index doubled to $24.80. In Europe, the reaction was one of panic: the TTF benchmark index jumped sharply from below 40 euros to almost 47.5 euros, marking an increase of 55% in recent days. In fact, it is projected that a 90-day closure in Hormuz would raise the TTF to €92/MWh. And this is where the alarms go off for the real economy, As the report explains Kpler, The profitability threshold for intensive European industry (chemicals, fertilizers or ceramics) is usually between €50 and €60/MWh. If prices stagnate there, we could see a new wave of factory closures and a resurgence of inflation. Change of course at sea. According to monitoring data collected by Bloombergat least nine shipments bound for Europe have been redirected to Asia since the fighting began. Atlantic ships like the Clean Mistraloriginally destined for Spain, or the BW Brusselswhich was going to France, have redirected their compasses towards the Pacific in the face of lucrative Asian offers. This maritime chaos is not exclusive to gas. In the oil sector, about 30 giant supertankers They crowd off the Saudi coast of Yanbu in the Red Sea to collect crude oil transported by land, in a desperate attempt to avoid the Iranian blockade. Vulnerabilities and “buffers”. Not all countries face this crisis with the same weapons. According to an analysis of A.M.E.Taiwan is the most exposed and vulnerable player: Qatar and the United Arab Emirates provided it with 35% of its imports in 2025, and after the closure of its nuclear park, it has almost no options to use other fuels. South Asia is also on the line. The report of Kpler highlights that Qatar and the Emirates account for 99% of Pakistan’s LNG imports, 72% of Bangladesh’s and 53% of India’s. However, powers such as China and Japan breathe a little easier. According to Vortexa analyst Ken Lee cited by oil priceBeijing and Tokyo’s exposure to Qatari LNG is just 6% and 5% of their gas mix, respectively. Furthermore, Japan has a good reserve inventory and the restart of its nuclear plants gives it a strategic “cushion.” Asia as a global buffer. In the end, the market will rebalance, but the pain will be uneven. Faced with the impossibility of paying stratospheric prices, very price-sensitive countries such as Pakistan or Bangladesh will have to resort to demand destruction, industrial cuts or return to burning coal. According to AMEJapan and South Korea will seek to replace between 70% and 90% of Qatar’s lost volumes in the spot market, while China, confident in its inventories, will only seek to cover 50%. As pointed out KplerSouth Asia and its industry will operate as the “buffer” (shock absorb) of this crisis. By cutting their own consumption due to not being able to pay, they will leave gas available for the Asian and European giants, but at the cost of maintaining relentless upward pressure that will make the entire world’s energy bill more expensive in the coming months. Image | Photo by Chris Pagan on Unsplash Xataka | The $200 per barrel scenario: when geography suffocates the world economy

The US Navy already knows what is going to happen to the planet. The mission to open Hormuz is the closest thing to a suicide operation

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In the world there are only a dozen maritime passages capable of altering the global economy if they are blocked. Some are so narrow that, at certain points, they barely exceed 30 kilometers wide. However, millions of barrels of oil, huge ships of liquefied natural gas and a good part of the planet’s energy trade circulate through them every day. When one of those places goes into crisisthe impact it doesn’t take long to feel in markets, governments and homes around the world. And the Strait of Hormuz points to a unprecedented scenario. The impossible mission. Yes, the Strait of Hormuz has become the point most dangerous on the planet for global energy trade. Some 20 million barrels of oil daily (around 20% of global consumption) in addition to one fifth of liquefied natural gas that supplies numerous countries. The conflict with Iran has transformed that corridor into a war zone where attacks on oil tankers, drones, missiles and sabotage have paralyzed much of the traffic. But what is most revealing is not only the violence of the incidents, but Washington’s reaction: even the world’s largest naval power just recognized which is not prepared to escort oil tankers through the area. That delay is a clear sign of the magnitude of the problem, because if the US Navy needs weeks to organize convoys, and that is exactly the words they have usedthe implicit message for the markets is that the Gulf energy blockade may last much longer than many imagined. Convoys under fire. To understand it we must imagine the scenario. The idea of ​​accompanying oil tankers with warships seems, on paper, a direct solution. In practice, it is one of the riskiest missions that a modern navy can face. The convoys would need frigates and destroyers protecting the freighters while specialized units They search for mines and drones in an environment saturated with threats. The ships would be exposed to anti-ship missiles launched from mobile trucks off the Iranian coast, swarms of explosive speedboats, kamikaze drones and possible mines hidden in the strait. To completely eliminate these threats, some analysts they even propose something Washington would prefer to avoid: a ground operation to control the Iranian coast that dominates the sea passage. This scenario explains why military planners speak of a “very complicated” situation: reopening the strait does not depend only on naval superiority, but on neutralizing an entire ecosystem of asymmetric warfare. Iranian missile boat moments before being attacked The cheapest weapon to paralyze commerce. And among all the threats, one stands out for its effectiveness: naval mines. We are talking about simple, cheap and extremely disruptive weapons that can transform a maritime corridor in a death trap. Even a few mines in a narrow spot are enough to paralyze traffic, because shipping companies and their insurers simply refuse to take the risk. Iran has several types of these devices, from floating mines to models anchored to the seabed capable of detonating charges of more than one hundred kilos of explosives upon contact. Not only that. You can also display them in ways difficult to detect: from small boats camouflaged as fishing boats or by divers who attach them to the hull of the ships. History, in fact, has already demonstrated his powerbecause mines have damaged more American ships than any other weapon naval since World War II. Hence its true effect is not to sink ships, but to sow enough fear to block traffic. Map with the strategic location of the Strait of Hormuz The invisible lock. The paradox of this type of war is that it is not necessary to mine the entire strait to close it. In reality, it is enough the simple suspicion. The reason is simple: in such a narrow channel, the presence of a few mines requires inspection every meter of water with sonar, underwater drones and specialized ships. A slow and dangerous process, especially if the enemy continues to lay new mines or attack demining units. Plus: recent experience in the black sea has shown that even uncertainty about their presence can keep commercial ships away for months. And in the Persian Gulf the same thing happens: Thousands of ships wait for instructions while the risk of mines, missiles or drones turns each voyage into a gamble. Oil as a geopolitical hostage. There is no doubt, all this gives Iran a strategic power of large dimensions. Before the conflict, about a fifth of the world’s oil passed through Hormuz daily. With this altered flow, energy prices react immediately and governments release strategic reserves to contain the impact. The strait thus becomes a colossal geopolitical lever: Even if the war were to end soon, something that is currently a utopia, an Iranian regime still capable of launching drones, missiles or mines could keep threatening maritime traffic when it suits you. That means oil and gas can stay hostage of Gulf stability for a long time, something that worries both the markets and Washington’s regional allies. There is no easy way out. Under this scenario, the dilemma For the United States it is evident. Stopping the war too soon could leave intact Iran’s ability to blockade the strait and put pressure on global energy markets. Continuing it could require a major climbincluding land operations or prolonged naval campaigns to ensure the security of the sea passage. Meanwhile, the conflict has already demonstrated something truly disturbing: even in the face of a military power like the United States, Iran retains enough tools to disrupt the global energy system. That is why the real alarm signal is not only the closure of Hormuz, but the realization that opening it may be much more difficult (and expensive) than many thought at the beginning of the war. Image | US NAVY, Oils & Fats international In Xataka | China has just found a hole in the US’s quietest weapon: an algorithm has hacked its B-2s in Iran In Xataka | The great paradox of war: the … Read more

Saudi Arabia’s ace in the hole to break the Iranian blockade in Hormuz

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Iran’s survival strategy in this war is based on a tactic of geopolitical suffocation: strangling the Strait of Hormuz to impose an unbearable economic cost on the West. However, while the financial market blindly speculates with express truces and the price of fuel follows its own dynamics at the pumps, the physical reality on the ground is about to change. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have a logistical “antidote” capable of rescuing up to 7 million of those barrels, radically changing the equation and breaking Iranian blackmail. The “antidote” in the desert. This lifeline was not improvised yesterday. Known as the East-West Pipeline (or Petroline), It began to be built in the 80s for fear that the war between Iran and Iraq will paralyze the Persian Gulf. According to Middle East Eye, It is a pharaonic artery of some 1,200 kilometers that winds through the Arabian desert, connecting the gigantic extraction fields in the east directly with the port terminal of Yanbu, bathed by the waters of the Red Sea. In this way, the crude oil can go out into the world without coming into the range of the Iranian missiles in Hormuz. As confirmed by the CEO of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, in Financial Timesthe company is working around the clock to raise pumping to the pipeline’s maximum capacity: 7 million barrels per day. Before the crisis, only 2.8 million barrels circulated there. Nasser detailed that about 2 million barrels will remain to feed its refineries on the west coast, leaving the not inconsiderable figure of 5 million barrels per day ready for the global market. The machinery in motion. Saudi Arabia has stepped on the accelerator. “We should reach maximum capacity in a couple of days,” said the head of Aramco, according to statements collected by Reuters. If Riyadh manages to consolidate this route, the kingdom will be able to export close to 70% of its usual shipments. The energy analyst Javier Blas underlines in your column for Bloomberg that right now the critical thing is to look at the flow export outside of Hormuz, and not so much in wellhead production. And shipping data supports this frenetic activity: Bloomberg has detailed as an “armada” of at least 25 supertankers (known as VLCCs) have changed course and are sailing towards the port of Yanbu to load this lifesaving crude oil. Adding to this ball of oxygen is the effort of the United Arab Emirates. Through their Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, which also bypasses the dangerous strait to exit the Gulf of Oman, they are providing between 1.5 and 2 million additional barrels per day, according to the data of Wall Street Journal. The small print. However, as with any large-scale emergency logistics operation, there is no magic wand. Experts warn of several blind spots in this strategy: The port funnel: According to the agency Argus MediaAlthough the Saudi pipeline manages to transport 5 million barrels for export, the port of Yanbu has its own limits. Its nominal loading capacity is about 4.5 million barrels per day in two terminals, but market sources place the proven effective capacity closer to 4 million. The fuel crisis (distillates): As Arne Lohmann Rasmussen warns, analyst cited by Middle East Eyethe current problem goes beyond crude oil; It is a diesel and aviation fuel crisis. The pipeline East-West It transports crude oil, not refined products. This leaves markets such as Europe, which were highly dependent on Middle Eastern refineries (such as the gigantic Emirati Ruwais plant, recently hit by a drone). The Houthi threat and the collapse of the tanks: Moving the oil outlet to the Red Sea returns the spotlight to the Houthi rebels in Yemen. As Greg Priddy points outships loading in Yanbu bound for Asia will have to pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, exposing themselves to drone attacks. Added to this is that, faced with the inability to remove ships through Hormuz, the Gulf countries are filling their storage reserves to the limit, forcing Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq to drastically cut extraction from their wells, as it has progressed Bloomberg. Buying time in the “Battle of the pipelines”. Nobody in the oil industry deceives anyone. Aramco’s own CEO admitted the “catastrophic consequences” What would a prolongation of this scenario have for the world economy? As Blas concludesthese alternative pipelines do not replace the opening of the Strait of Hormuz permanently. Its main mission is another: to buy valuable time. If the Saudi-Emirati duo manages to get this enormous pipeline to spit millions of barrels into the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman, they will stop the panic at the Western pumps and take away Iran’s main negotiating asset. Far from the political and stock market noise, the resolution of this crisis is being fought in the logistical desert. Image | Aramco Xataka | Light and gas have become luxury items. Europe’s plan is to intervene in prices no matter what the cost

Iran is planting sea mines in Hormuz. And what threatens to blow up is not ships: it is the world economy

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On the maps it looks like just a gap of water between deserts, but it passes through that narrow corridor every day. a gigantic portion of the energy that moves the planet. So narrow that in some sections the ships navigate in maritime lanes of just a few kilometers, constantly monitored by radars, drones and military fleets. For decades, any tension at that point in the Persian Gulf has been capable of shake up prices of oil in a matter of minutes. Imagine if will plant mines. A war also at sea. As bombings and missiles focus attention on the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, a parallel battle has begun to unfold in the Persian Gulf. From the start of the warUS intelligence services They detected signs that Tehran could try to disrupt maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by deploying naval mines and small fast boats. The threat is serious enough to have triggered public warnings of Washington and preventive military operations against Iranian ships suspected of participating in these maneuvers. In this context, the control of this narrow maritime corridor has become one of the strategic points more delicate of the conflict, because any disturbance there has immediate repercussions on the global energy supply. The strait, the global energy artery. There is no doubt, the tension is explained by the central role that Hormuz plays in the global energy system. Approximately a fifth of the oil consumed by the planet circulates through this strait of just a few dozen kilometers, in addition to a similar proportion of the international trade in liquefied natural gas. Every day they go through it in normal conditions about twenty million of barrels of crude oil from the producing countries of the Gulf heading to Asia, Europe and America. Powers like China, India, Japan or South Korea depend largely of this step to secure its energy supply, which turns any threat in these waters into an immediate global problem. It is no coincidence that even rumors or minor incidents in the area provoke immediate reactions in the oil markets. The new war. In that scenario it has begun a new phase of the conflict: that of oil tankers navigating between the risk of mines capable of shaking the planet’s economies. American intelligence reports indicate that Iran has begun deploying dozens of these explosives in the strait and keeps intact most of its fleet of small boats capable of planting hundreds more in a short time. The Revolutionary Guard controls much of the area next to the Iranian navy and has a combination of speedboats, minelayer boats, drones and coastal missile batteries that can turn the sea passage into a navigation trap. The goal would not necessarily be to sink large numbers of ships, that too, but to create enough uncertainty enough to paralyze global energy traffic, raise transportation costs and trigger a shock in international markets. In other words, a well-placed mine in these waters can have an economic impact that goes much further of the ship that hits it. First shocks. Faced with this threat, Washington has chosen for acting before mine deployment reaches a larger scale. The US military has confirmed (with videos included) a few hours ago the destruction of at least sixteen Iranian vessels involved in mining operations near the strait, in what US officials describe as pre-emptive strikes based on intelligence about Tehran’s operational plans. These actions seek to prevent Iran from turning the strait into a practically closed area to navigation before the deployment of explosives multiplies. At the same time, the White House has warned that any attempt to block the flow of oil will provoke a much more forceful military response than the operations carried out so far. Trapped oil and markets in panic. The economic consequences are already beginning to become visible. Since the start of the war, oil transit from the Gulf has seriously upsetwith millions of barrels per day that cannot leave the region normally. Countries like Iraq or Kuwait depend almost exclusively of this route to export its crude, which amplifies the potential impact of any interruption. Energy companies have started diverting ships or to look for alternative routeswhile Saudi Arabia tries to compensate for part of the problem by increasing the use of its oil pipeline to the Red Sea. In parallel, the International Energy Agency studies a massive liberation of strategic reserves to contain the impact of the energy crisis. A few kilometers to shake the world. The fragility of the situation is also explained by the geography of the enclave itself. At its narrowest point it barely has 34 kilometers wide and the navigation lanes through which the ships circulate barely exceed three kilometers in each direction. This narrowness makes the place extremely vulnerable to mines, drone attacks or coastal missiles. It is not the first time this has happened, in fact, since how do we countduring the so-called “tanker war” in the eighties, Iran already used mines in these same waters to pressure its adversaries during the conflict with Iraq. History, therefore, suggests that these types of tactics can be surprisingly effective in destabilizing global trade. A planetary blow. The extreme sensitivity of the energy markets to any news coming from Hormuz was fully demonstrated very recently, when a wrong message on social media suggested that the US Navy had successfully escorted a tanker through the strait. The simple rumor caused an immediate collapse of crude oil prices and a shake-up in financial markets before authorities clarified that no such operation had occurred. The episode illustrates the extent to which the world watches every movement in these waters with nervousness. In a global energy system so dependent on a few strategic corridors, the mine threat in the Strait of Hormuz has opened a new dimension of war: one in which fate of the world economy it may depend on a maritime corridor just a few kilometers wide. Image | nara, Picryl, naraNZ … Read more

The big winner of the Hormuz blockade is the country that the West has tried to suffocate for years: Russia

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The script was written and the West was already celebrating the definitive economic strangulation of Russia. However, geopolitics has a bad habit of blowing up office plans. Today, the world is witnessing a historical paradox: the United States has just opened the back door to Vladimir Putin’s oil to try to stop a global energy collapse. The war between the United States and Israel against Iran has set the markets on fire, pushing up barrel prices above 100 dollars. Faced with the abyss of an unprecedented crisis, diplomacy has had to surrender to the stubborn reality of infrastructure. The “digital fog” and an emergency rescue. To understand the magnitude of the paralysis you have to look at the maritime traffic monitors. As detailed Bloombergthe Strait of Hormuz has become a “digital fog.” The few ships that dare to sail do so by turning off their location transponders (AIS) and suffering constant interference and GPS spoofing (spoofing) fruit of electronic warfare. In this scenario of physical suffocation, India was on the brink of collapse. The Asian giant is heavily dependent on imports from the Middle East, and the closure of Hormuz has cut off its rennet supplies. Reuters reported last week that state refineries like MRPL (Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd.) have been forced to close entire processing units due to the simple and simple shortage of crude oil. The unexpected lifesaver? In a turn of events, the US administration has had to swallow its own sanctions. As confirmed The Moscow Times and it is observed in the official OFAC document (the Treasury Department’s General License 133), the United States has issued a temporary 30-day waiver, valid until April 4, 2026, allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil loaded on vessels by March 5. Paradoxically, how to explain BloombergIndia had drastically reduced its purchases from Moscow at the beginning of the year after facing the threat of punitive 50% tariffs from Trump himself. Now, cornered by the crisis, dozens of Russian oil tankers that were wandering aimlessly are changing their coordinates on the high seas to come to the rescue of Indian ports. The political story versus the reality of the market. Officially, Washington tries to minimize the impact of this capitulation. In statements collected by The Kyiv Independentthe US Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, assured that “there is no change in policy towards Russia” and that the exemption is only a “pragmatic decision.” For his part, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended that this measure “will not provide significant financial benefits to the Russian government” as it is applied only to crude oil stranded at sea. But the reality of the markets tells a very different story. According to CNBCRussian crude oil of the Ural variety has gone from being sold with humiliating discounts of between 10 and 20 dollars, to being traded at a historical premium of between 2 and 4 dollars above the barrel of Brent in its deliveries to India. This injection of capital to Moscow has unleashed an internal political storm. The Democrats They have demanded Trump to immediately reverse the exemption, accusing him of strengthening an adversary. From the humanitarian field, the NGO Global Witness, cited by Guardian, has been blunt, accusing the White House of “feeding Putin’s war machine” to cover up a price crisis that the United States itself has unleashed. Putin rubs his hands. To understand the magnitude of the Russian victory, you have to look at where they were just a month ago. Bloomberg, in your market analysishighlights that Russian exports were under unprecedented pressure. The Kremlin had nearly 140 million barrels stuck in the sea (65% more than usual), and was forced into a suicidal price war against Iran to try to place its surpluses in the limited Chinese refineries. Overnight, the Hormuz blockade removed all of its Middle Eastern competition from the equation. The crisis has been a gift from heaven. From Moscow they don’t even hide. How to collect CNBCKremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov publicly boasted to the press: “We are seeing a significant increase in demand for Russian energy resources in connection with the war in Iran,” reminding the world that Russia “remains a reliable supplier.” Hurt pride and a sea of ​​uncertainty. As Russian ships sail south, the battle of public perception rages in India. Although in the BBC estimates that the country It barely has crude oil reserves for about 25 days, the Indian government is trying to project absolute calm. As reported Mashable Indiaauthorities insist that “there is no shortage in the world.” However, on social networks the narrative is one of deep sovereignist indignation. Politicians like Rajiv Shukla cried out on social network X against American paternalism: “Who is the United States to dictate to us that we can only buy oil from Russia for a month?” Added to this is the harsh reality that there are no easy alternatives. Although Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates They have pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, its maximum capacity barely covers a fraction of the 20 million barrels per day that the world has just lost. The laws of thermodynamics do not understand sanctions. This whole scenario returns us to a conclusion that We already analyzed in the recent crisis of the Druzhba pipeline in Europe. The West has spent years writing laws, imposing price caps and signing embargoes on elegant offices to isolate Russia. But geopolitics always ends up submitting to mathematics and thermodynamics. While China watches the crisis calmly, with its reserves filled to the brim after years of silent strategic purchases, the European Union and the United States have had to swallow their own sanctions in record time to avoid collapse. The energy embargo on Russia has proven to be a gigantic house of cards; It only took someone to cut off the passage through the Strait of Hormuz for everything to collapse. Image | Coded and kremlin.ru Xataka | The EU has a perfect plan to suffocate Russia. The … Read more

China spent 10 billion on oil it did not need. With Hormuz blocked, the puzzle finally makes sense

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As the West panics over the possibility of the barrel break the $100 barrieran eerie calm reigns in Beijing. The Asian giant observes the crisis with the coldness of someone who has already done his homework. During the last few months, the world has been debating the excess oil supply, but the real winner of this war crisis is not firing missiles, but has been filling its storage tanks for years in the most absolute silence. World geopolitics has been blown up a few weeks before the expected summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. As reported Nikkei Asiathe coordinated airstrikes of the United States and Israel (dubbed “Operation Epic Fury“) have culminated in the assassination of the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Tehran’s response has been a rain of missiles and drones on American allies in the region. The immediate impact has been felt in the water. The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 million barrels a day flow (20% of the world’s oil supply), is blocked de facto. As detailed Bloomberg, Rates to hire a supertanker on the route from the Middle East to China have skyrocketed by 600%, reaching $200,000 a day (or 525 Worldscale points for a Suezmax). Besides, France 24 points out that insurers They have increased war risk premiums between 25% and 50%. As reported cnnBrent crude oil jumped 6.5% in the early stages, touching $82, driven by fear of prolonged logistical disruptions. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, warned the US chain that closing Hormuz would cause an immediate global energy crisis. China’s exposed vulnerability On paper, the Donald Trump administration’s offensive should be an absolute nightmare for Xi Jinping. As explained The TelegraphAmerican military adventurism is exposing the gigantic energy vulnerability of China, the largest oil importer in the world, which buys three-quarters of the crude oil it consumes abroad. Washington’s strategy seems clear: suffocate the “rebellious” suppliers that supply the Chinese industrial machinery at bargain prices. Earlier this year, the military capture of Nicolás Maduro has established what some analysts They already call the “Donroe Doctrine”. Trump has been explicit in his goal to control oil. If the United States manages to add Venezuelan production to that of Guyana and its own, it would de facto control 30% of the world’s reserves, according to JP Morgan. This movement cuts supply to China in the bud, evaporating imports that represented around 4% of its maritime purchases. according to data from Kpler collected by The Financial Review. However, Washington’s optimism collides with geology: the infrastructure is so in ruins that loading a supertanker today takes five days and the crude oil arrives so “dirty” that the Chinese and Indian refineries themselves have canceled orders, according to a Reuters investigation. Refloating this industry will cost 10 billion dollars annually for a decade, as Francisco Monaldi calculatesdirector of energy policy at Rice University. For its part, the current blow to Iran. From Chosun Daily details that China bought 80% of Iranian maritime exports last year (about 1.38 million barrels per day), which represents 13.4% of Beijing’s total maritime crude oil imports. As he points out Institute for Energy Research (IER) United States, cited by the same mediumChina has used the heavily sanctioned and cheap oil from these countries to cement its manufacturing competitiveness. Losing Iran and Venezuela would force Chinese refiners — especially the independent ones in Shandong, known as “teapots” — to look for much more expensive substitutes on the open market, threatening to import inflation and slow their economic growth. The master plan in execution If Western analysts expected to see China cornered, they were wrong. Beijing foresaw this scenario of isolation and has been executing a four-pronged master plan for years that today allows it to cushion the blow of Hormuz. While in 2025 the world feared a global oversupply, China dedicated itself to massive purchasing. Last year, China spent $10 billion buying an extra 150 million barrels that it didn’t immediately need, absorbing more than 90% of crude oil storage measurable globally. Supported by a new Energy Law that obliges the public and private sector to maintain reserves, Beijing today has strategic reserves equivalent to at least 96 days of imports, according to The Telegraph. Under the banner of national security, China is investing $80 billion annually in its state oil fields. In March 2025 they reached a production peak of 4.6 million barrels per day and they completed the drilling of the deepest oil well in Asia (10,910 meters). Its goal is not financial profitability, but pure autonomy. With Iran and Venezuela under fire, China has simply turned its head toward Russia and Saudi Arabia. According to oil price, Chinese refineries are absorbing record amounts of Russian crude oil (more than 2 million barrels per day in February 2026), taking advantage of the fact that India has given in to pressure from the US to stop buying from Moscow. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia has cut the official price of its crude oil Arab Light to five-year lows to gain market share in Asia, which has led China to order between 56 and 57 million Saudi barrels by March. China’s definitive move is to abandon the oil board. As analyzed by Professor Hussein Dia in The ConversationChina’s massive commitment to electric vehicles (50% of new car sales last year) and renewable energy is a national security policy. How they collect in The Telegraph, The new five-year plan (2026-2030) seeks to peak oil consumption by accelerating the installation of solar and wind parks (430 gigawatts added last year alone). Unlike the ships in Hormuz, sunlight cannot be blocked by the US Fifth Fleet. The diplomacy of silence and the illusion of OPEC+ In the face of Khamenei’s assassination, the response of the Chinese Foreign Ministry has been one of calculated coldness. They condemned the act as “unacceptable” and a “violation of sovereignty,” but, as pointed out Chosun Dailythey carefully avoided directly mentioning Donald Trump. From Nikkei Asia explains this pragmatism: … Read more

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz already points to gasoline at two euros/liter

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Unpredictable, unexpected and extreme impact. There are three characteristics that define what Nassim TalebLebanese philosopher, mathematician and essayist, pointed out to explain the “black swan theory”. With it he tries to explain what position to take in the face of such an inexplicable event of which we cannot understand its consequences. The theory takes its cue from the poet Juvenal, who once spoke of “a rare bird on earth, and very similar to a black swan“, a phrase that makes it clear that there was a time when it was believed that the swan, invariably, must be white because a black one had never been discovered. The phrase, in fact, was popular in England centuries ago. For Western Europe, swans were white. Spot. But a Dutch expedition at the end of the 17th century in Australia found that the black swan did indeed exist, which forever changed the knowledge we had on this subject. It was an unexpected, unpredictable event whose impact was extreme in its branch. Nacho Rabadán, general director of CEEES (Spanish Confederation of Service Station Employers), the most representative association of the sector, rescues this theory to point out what can happen with a constant block of the Strait of Hormuz. “Whenever there are problems in the Middle East, there is speculation about a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz and whenever that possibility is on the table, the price of oil rises. If Hormuz were really closed, we would be talking about a black swan, there would be an immediate and violent reaction in the price of oil and we would be in a scenario similar to that of the spring of 2022 with the invasion of Ukraine,” Rabadán explains to ABC. Gasoline at two euros/liter If the prices of the first days of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are reached, we would be talking about gasoline at a sustained price of between 1.80 and 2.00 euros/liter. At that time, Europe got to work to contain the impact on homes, mitigated in our country with one of subsidy of 20 cents/liter that did not end up stopping the rise in price and which, in fact, came to be used as means to attract clients according to the CNMC. Those days when OPEC maneuvered to keep the price of oil above $80/barrel seems far away. It even reached $130/barrel. But now they seem more alive than ever. The Strait of Hormuz is a key passage for energy for much of the world. It is an enclave of high tension, where the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf narrow to leave just a passage of between 60 and 100 kilometers for ships loaded with oil. For Iran, Oman, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, controlling the passage of ships is key. since two weeksthe traffic is committed and with the attack by the United States and Israel on Iranand the country’s response to neighboring countries with US bases, the closure seems confirmed. A closure that has caught some 240 ships stopped in the middle of a historic traffic jam. Of them, Bloomberg The number of detained ships loaded with the precious commodity is estimated at 40 supertankers. The impact on the oil futures market was immediate once the attack became known but, for now, the price per barrel is close to 73 euros/unit (a few days ago it was around 65 dollars/barrel). The impact should be felt in the coming days if the fight becomes entrenched and Hormuz remains closed. For now, the price of gasoline has already risen slightly but the figures we find at the pumps will be, in the opinion of analystsmuch lower than we can expect in a few days. With the Ukrainian War and the Russia’s exit from the market (legal) of fuel, the price of gasoline shot up to 2.15 euros/liter and diesel to 2.10 euros/liter. The fear, of course, is not that only the price of fuel will skyrocket. Increasing its price impacts a general rise in prices since transportation is much more expensive. In fact, indirectly, not only the closure of Hormuz to the passage of oil can make products more expensive. Have to border the entire African coast to reach Europe to avoid attacks by some and others would raise the final bill. Both because of the extra fuel spent and the higher cost of keeping a ship traveling for more than 10 days, which extends the route in traffic between Asia and Europe. Photo | Marek Studzinski and Glenn Fawcett, Gieling, Rob In Xataka | Spain was supposed to raise diesel in 2026. It was supposed

This is the Hormuz “swarm” that threatens to break the $100 barrier

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Just enter Marine Traffic to understand the magnitude of the problem. The entire world is holding its breath before a funnel of water just a few miles wide. Through the Strait of Hormuz travels approximately 20% of the world’s daily oil supply and a vital quota of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Today, that global artery is suffering a heart attack. An unprecedented escalation in the Middle East, detonated by attacks of the United States and Israel that ended the life of the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has unleashed a hail of missiles and drones. The result is a blockage de facto of the most important sea route on the planet. X-ray of a historical traffic jam. The cover image of Marine Traffic It is a veritable swarm of red icons that crowd on both sides of the strait, especially near the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas and off the coast of the United Arab Emirates. Once we move the cursor over the boats, we see that they are still. According to the data of S&P Globalmaritime traffic has plummeted, between 40% and 50%. There are around 240 ships clustered waiting for instructions. Among them, as analyst Weilun Soon details in Bloombergthere are at least 40 supertankers (VLCCs), inactive giants each loaded with about 2 million barrels of crude oil. And time is against us: according to estimates by JPMorganIf this effective closure lasts more than 25 days, producers will run out of space to store crude oil and will have to stop physical production. The chaos is not only physical, it is also electronic. The data team SkyNews has documented severe interference in ship tracking systems (AIS). The signals are so distorted that some oil tankers appear located inland on radars. The fear is more than justified: the war has already spilled into the water. According to reports from the UKMTO (UK Maritime Commercial Operations) cited by Business Insiderthe tanker skylightflying the Palauan flag, was attacked near Oman. The balance has left four injured and 20 crew members urgently evacuated. Markets in panic and freight rates through the roof. The chain reaction has not been long in coming. In a quick look at the bag, we can observe the initial panic of investors: in the first hours of operations, Brent crude oil (the European benchmark) soared by 13%, reaching $82 per barrel—its highest in 14 months. Although it later relaxed to dawn this Monday around $79, the scare was already in the body. This whiplash has had winners and losers in the European stock markets. As you have detailed Guardian, While oil companies (Shell, BP) and defense companies (BAE Systems) rose sharply, airlines such as IAG or easyJet plummeted by around 10% and 7% respectively, terrified by the imminent increase in fuel costs. Moving crude oil today is a high-risk sport. The daily cost of renting a supertanker has skyrocketed by an unusual 600%, reaching $200,000 a day, as Alex Longley warns in Bloomberg. Insurance must be added to this bill: France 24 reports that premiums against war risks They are going to become between 25% and 50% more expensive for those who dare to enter ground zero. The paradox of OPEC+. The next market movement looked askance at the offices. According to the official statement from OPEC+the cartel agreed to inject an additional 206,000 barrels per day starting in April to stabilize prices. However, this measure is, in practice, a logistical mirage. As analyst John Kemp explains: in your column for Finance TimesOPEC+ has excess capacity of more than 3 million barrels per day, but almost all of that capacity is inside of the Persian Gulf countries. In other words, no matter how much extra oil Saudi Arabia or Iraq promise to pump, if the ships cannot cross the Strait of Hormuz, that oil does not exist for the rest of the world. The analysts of wood Mackenzie, collected by oil price, They have been more forceful: “If traffic is not restored quickly, the barrel will pierce the $100 barrier.” The nuances that will define the crisis. Despite the drama, the world has some escape valves that did not exist in the oil crises of the 70s: Lifesaving pipelines: As Kemp explainsSaudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates can bypass the strait by exporting some of their crude oil through pipelines to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman. However, countries like Iraq and Kuwait are trapped: they are 100% dependent on Hormuz. Global shock absorbers: Analyst Javier Blas shells in Bloomberg that the shale revolution (shale oil) in the United States gives Washington unprecedented control over supply. Furthermore, China lIt has been filling to the brim for years its strategic reserves, which would soften the blow in the short term. The big beneficiary: Ironically, the blockade is excellent news for Vladimir Putin. As Blas points outa sustained rise in prices makes it easier for Russia to sell its sanctioned crude oil on the Asian black market with much juicier margins. The world holds its breath. At the moment, the global economy is paralyzed waiting for what a few ship captains decide. Maritime transport giants such as Maersk have already announced the temporary suspension of all their transits through the area, how to collect France 24. Laden ships will remain idle, “avoiding drama,” in the words of a shipping broker consulted by S&P Global. Today, the fate of global inflation is decided not on Wall Street or central banks, but in the tense waters of Oman and Iran, where a swarm of steel giants have decided to shut down their engines and pray for the storm to subside. Image | MarineTraffic Xataka | Tension in Iran is so high that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. And that will have consequences when you go to refuel.

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