Russia

If China attacks Taiwan, Russia and North Korea will also do so … but to Europe

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An interview of the New York Times It has opened the possibility of a scenario that concerns a large number of nations. NATO general secretary Mark Rutte, explained The closest thing to a chess board where the movement of a key piece produced a geopolitical earthquake of extraordinary dimensions, according to the leader, everything would begin if China finally decides Attack Taiwan. What would come later would be the closest thing to world war. The context. The extensive interview He came to a key point: the fear of an escalation of Chinese military intervention on the island of Taiwan It has increased drastically He launched his invasion On a large scale of Ukraine. The approach: the war has served as possible model How both taipéi and the international community could answer if Beijing decides to invade. Of course, Rutte took the opportunity to spread the message we listen to incessantly: rearmamentbut from a disturbing perspective. Routte word. “There is more and more awareness, and let’s not be naive about it: if xi jinping attack Taiwan, he would first make sure his smallest partner in all this, Vladimir Putin, and say: ‘Hey, I will do this and I need you to keep them occupied in Europe attacking NATO territory’”, Routte declared. “It is very likely that this is how this advances. And to dissuade them, we need to do two things. One is that it, collectively, is so strong that the Russians never do it. And the second, collaborate with the Indo -Pacific, something that President Trump is promoting vehemently,” added. The strategic clamp. We have coming counting These months. As the military pressure China on Taiwan reaches levels unprecedentedthat key date of 2027 It is glimpsed on the horizon and, meanwhile, Western strategists begin to fear a more gloomy scenario: than Beijing, when launched into an eventual invasion of the island, activate its Russian partner to open a second front in Europe. That was about Rutte’s wordsthat this coordination would not be an improvised act, but a deliberate play. They remembered the Analysts on Twz That, although it seems alarmist, the warning fits with the growing alignment between Moscow and Beijing, which not only share strategic interests, but also reinforce each other in their respective wars: Russia with Chinese technical support in Ukraine, and China benefiting from the distraction that represents the European conflict for US military resources. NATO troops The 2027 horizon. A few months ago We point that Western intelligence reports agree that both China and Russia would be working with similar temporal horizons. Xi Jinping would have ordered the EPL armed forces to be ready to Take Taiwan in 2027a period supported For the CIA and by The statements of the then head of the IndoPacom, when talking about the call “Davidson Window.” In turn, the Rutte ownas well as high controls military from Germany and Ukraine, they argue that Russia could reconstitute your abilities To attack NATO territory Towards 2029. That is, by the end of this decade, both powers would be (it does not mean that it will be so) in technical and logistics conditions to open A double front which would test the American reaction capacity. In practice, this would mean that any Chinese offensive on Taiwan It could coincide With a Russian offensive on the eastern flank of Europe, forcing the United States to divide its resources between two simultaneous war theaters. Pressures on Taiwan. The United States Indo-Pacific Command data (INDOPACOM) leaves no doubt: Chinese military pressure on Taiwan has Increased 300% Annual, with Naval maneuversexercises amphibians, drills landing, rocket and operations releases of aircraft carriers Around the island. Admiral Samuel Paparo warned of a “boiling point” that could crystallize in a real operation if Beijing considers that Washington is too dispersed to respond effectively. Although some analysts consider unlikely that Russia is ready Right to attack NATO, others recognize that even a credible threat or hybrid war actions could force the United States to mobilize resources preventively. And the simple expectation of conflict would already be enough to dilute the American response capacity in the Pacific. Iran and North Korea. Beyond Russia, experts agree that China has other “saturation actors” to divert US attention and media. The recent offensive With B-2 Spirit bombings on Iranian nuclear facilities, it shows that Washington already has part of its arsenal committed in the Middle East. The maintenance of Two groups of aircraft carriers In the region, along with the sustained war Against the hutis In Yemen and the constant tension with Iran, they already suppose a drainage considerable operation. To this is added the latent threat North Koreawhose structural dependence on China makes it a strategic pawn willing to sow chaos if Beijing demands it. Neither Pyongyang nor Moscow would have to launch into a total war: it would be enough with actions of “Gray Zone” Sufficiently to force a reaction from the United States and its allies, dispersing strength, anticipating conflicts and undermining the logistics and tactical concentration that would require a Taiwan effective defense. Wear strategy. The key to the scenario that is emerging is not in the immediate brute force, but in asymmetric deterrence. China knows that a Taiwan invasion is not simply a military operation, but a total geostrategic bet. To have any chance of success, It must guarantee that the United States cannot concentrate your forces quickly in the region. Russia, North Korea and even latent conflicts in the Middle East are part of this architecture. In that context, a weakened, distracted or forced to defend their eastern flank while Washington has to operate on several fronts, would offer the “Window of opportunity” that Beijing needs. Hence the revitalization of the European rearmethe reinforcement of the Defenses in Finland and Poland, and the Increase in spending Military in almost all the countries of the Alliance, are not only reactive measures against Russia, but essential elements of the strategy to also deter China. Washington and unpredictable deterrence. The Trump … Read more

Russia is using an unprecedented tactic to dynamit Ukraine: Telegram and Ukrainian adolescents

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The story jumped following a data from Ukrainian intelligence. Apparently, More than 700 people They have been arrested in the country for crimes of sabotage and terrorism. The problem? That a quarter of them were minors, so an investigation was opened to find out how they had got there. They discovered something much bigger: many of them did not even know they were executing a Russian mission. Spies and terrorists by accident. The war between Russia and Ukraine has stopped being fought only in the battlefields to infiltrate the teenage mobiles. A growing number of Ukrainian minors is being recruited by Russian intelligence services through messaging applications Like Telegramwith the promise of easy money in exchange for performing tasks ranging from taking photographs of military objectives to the placement of explosives. One of the most recent cases is that of a 16 -year -old arrested In fraganti In the city of Dnipro while collecting information about Ukrainian military positions For the FSB. Your case It is not exceptional: According to the Ukraine Safety Service (SBU), more than 700 people have been arrested for espionage, sabotage or terrorism directed by Russian agents, and as we said, around 25% were minors. From Telegram to the battlefield. The capture methods follow a disturbing pattern. Wearing anonymous accounts In Telegram, Discord, WhatsApp or Viber, the Russian agents contact young people offering them Between $ 100 and 1,000 For simple tasks that become more and more dangerous: take photos of anti -aircraft systems, cause fires in critical infrastructure or plant explosives in recruitment stations. Many of recruited teenagers act knowingly, others believe they are participating in games o Digital challenges, as in the case of two children under 15 and 16 years in Járkiv, who thought to be completing a “Quest” by following FSB instructions to geolocate and record military facilities. These coordinates were used to guide air attacks against the city. Involuntary suicides. In other cases, the result It has been lethal: two recruited teenagers to place a pump in a train station in Ivano-Frankivsk were Victims of the device itselfremotely activated by its Russian supervisors, in what has been described as a forced suicide operation without knowledge of the executor. In another, described For the GuardianOleh, a 19 -year -old from East of Ukraine accepted a job offered by a stranger named “Anton” for $ 1,000: he had to collect a backpack in Rivne and sprinkle paint in front of a police station. It happens that there was no paint inside the bag, but an improvised explosive artifact, with cables, an attached mobile and a deadly trap that would have made it, without knowing it, a suicidal attacker. The operation. Oleh was progressively recruited. He started sending photos of public buildings for 50 dollars in exchange for cryptocurrency payments, which made him enter the orbit of his captors. After refusing to set fire to a building, he was contacted weeks later by another man, “Alexander”, which offered him a new seemingly harmless task and Better remunerated. Oleh convinced his friend Serhiy to join the plan. Both, unemployed and needy money, traveled to Rivne and collected the bags in an agreed area. The operation, carefully directed by Alexander from Telegram, included precise instructions, video calls, remote surveillance and an alleged spray with which they had to make a symbolic graffiti in front of a police station. However, at the last moment, when opening the package, Oleh discovered that he had been deceived and alerted a policeman nearby. SBU agents who followed the operation arrested both young people. The attack was avoided thanks to signal blocking systems that prevented Alexander from detonating the explosives by a call. The same type of attack had killed a 21 -year -old boy three days before in the same city. Systematic campaign The Ukrainian authorities They denounce that this strategy is not sporadic or improvised, but a systematic effort For destabilizing the country from within, exploiting the precariousness and emotional vulnerability of its youth. Displaced young people, orphans for war or simply in need of money for a mobile phone have become objectives of a covert war machine that transforms their curiosity and despair into sabotage tools. Faced with this, the SBU has launched A national campaign of awareness to counteract these tactics: alert messages by SMS, poster posters, educational videos in trains and visits to schools where agents teach adolescents how to detect recruitment signals. He campaign motto“Do not burn yours, burn the enemy,” seeks to reverse the narrative imposed by Moscow. National Security vs. Childhood Rights. No doubt, the use of minors in espionage and terrorism actions also raises a Legal and ethical dilemma. Under the martial law in force in Ukraine, crimes of betrayal, sabotage or collaboration can lead to Perpetual prison sentenceseven for teenagers. Although the Government ensures that due process and legal representation are being guaranteed, organizations such as Human Rights Watch They warn that minors must be treated under international youth justice standards, prioritizing rehabilitation. Even so, internal pressure on the authorities It is huge: With a current total war and Russian attacks guided from within the country, even adolescents arrested for collaborating with the enemy are seen as traitors. For the head of the SBU, Vasyl Malyuk, there is no ambiguity: “For us, they are traitors of the State.” Threat that grows. He counted The Financial Times That the sophistication of Russian recruitment techniques is increasing. In June, the SBU warned about a new tactic: Russian agents who pass Ukrainian officials to manipulate minors and get sabotages or cyber crimes on behalf of the government themselves to harm. Disinformation, digital anonymity and the use of playful playful dynamics have converted the phones of Ukrainian adolescents into The new front of a war without clear rules. Thus, as the conflict extends, Ukraine is forced to fight not only against missiles and drones, but against an invasion that is also infiltrated in the youngest and most vulnerable minds of his society. Image | … Read more

Shahed drones were already a real nightmare for Ukraine. Russia has just made them a little more lethal

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The scene took place a clear day of June. From a secret location, a six -meter “nurse” drone rose to the sky by order of the soldiers, crossed 200 kilometers within the enemy territory and released two suicide drones that hung from their wings. Designed to fly at low altitude and avoid radars, secondary drones autonomously searched for an objective and, once identified, they threw themselves to detonate on it without direct human intervention. This is today the Ukraine War. Systematic terror. We have gone counting to Long of the war in Ukraine. The Shahed drone has become the MORE MORTÍFERA of the contest thanks to additions and evolutions Like fiberbut from a while at this part that evolution is exceeding the known limits. He counted The New York Times In a long and overwhelming piece what is assuming for the Ukrainian people. He Shahed-136developed by Iran and manufactured under a license by Russia as Geran-2, has evolved from being a rudimentary two-stroke drone and cardboard fuselage reinforced to a sophisticated horror weapon. Russia lo has modified with rBlack ecubows For night flights, interference resistant navigation, multiple types of eyelets (included Thermobáricaincendiary and fragmentation with Tungsten balls) and navigation systems assisted by Sim Ukranian cards and kometa satellite antennas, resistant TO THE ELECTRONIC WAR. Cheap. The cost per unit, between 50,000 and 80,000 dollarsit makes it a much cheaper option than ballistic missiles such as Iskander-M (2 million) or The KH-101and even cheaper than the anti -aircraft missiles that are used to intercept them. Its low cost, mass production In industrial complexes In Tartaristan and Izhevsk, and his adaptability has made him one of the most effective weapons of modern war, ideal for hosting civil rear and exhausting defenses. Missiles with ia. They underlined In Forbes The most striking fact of the last evolutions of the Shahed: Reaction engines. Although they will go He had presented publicly a variant of this type (the Shahed-238), It was not until recently that its use in Ukraine was confirmed by means of remains analyzed in the field. It is estimated that these models can reach speeds of up to 480 km/hquadruplying the cruise speed of the previous versions. Its acute and fast roar replaces the buzz of the old engine, and its speed drastically reduces the reaction time of the defenses. However, its cost and complexity probably forces Russia to use a Mixed strategy of drones A piston and turbojetfurther complicating defensive systems. Visual navigation: more. In addition to more powerful engines, some Shahed units are now armored in compartment of the engine and with relocated fuel tanks inside the fuselage. This has reduced and much reduced the effectiveness of light weapons, forcing defensive operators to point surgical precision to vulnerable parts such as the wing or the engine itself. Plus: Shahed drones have already been seen with computerized vision systems with Artificial Intelligence Processorsaccording to images released on June 18 by the Ukrainian specialist Serhii Beskrestnov. These systems offer autonomous visual navigation, regardless of GPS, which would make them immune offers one of the most effective defensive tactics so far: satellite interference. The Shahed would thus enter into a new era of autonomy and lethality. Shahed intercepted Fear of night. Explain in your reports the Times that everything changed from mid -2024, when the releases shot: 34 drones per week in 2022, more than 1,000 per week In 2025. On June 8 of this year, Russia launched 479 drones in one night. Many Shahed no longer aimed at military objectives: they impact markets, apartments, churches and other tactical value, in violation of Geneva conventions. According to UkraineRussia has implemented a deliberate night horror campaign to emotionally and physically exhaust the civilian population. 20% of drones manage to overcome Ukrainian defenses in certain weeks, a growing figure. Ukrainian counteroffensive. To counteract the threat, Ukraine has deployed specialized units Like Darknodea secret regiment within unmanned systems forces. These soldiers, mostly reconverted civilians, fight night battles using hunter drones To intercept Shaheds. Its technology, even in development, already allows identifying and destroying enemy drones in flight, even when they maneuver or change altitude. He Times explained cases like him Kyryloa young pilot recruited for his video game skills that has already demolished more than a dozen objectives. They use interceptor drones of $ 6,000 and throw them from open fields following patterns that remind of night agricultural rituals. In this regard, one of their greatest advantages is that they can guide the enemy drone away from inhabited areas before it explodes, avoiding collateral damage. Black Shahed Evolutionary career. In a race that does not stop, Russia has also adjusted its tactics: the Shaheds now They fly higherthey change altitude, they follow convoluted routes and are accompanied by lures such as The gerbera dronesbuilt in foam, which consume missiles and distract defenses. In addition, some Shahed units carry cameras to evaluate the damage or for remote assistance in flight. In other words, the war has entered into a dynamic of constant innovation: each improvement in defense is answered by a Russian tactical evolution. “It’s like a race between sword and armor”, He explained to the newspaper A Ukrainian soldier. Russian guide in drone handling with fiber The fiber and a guide. It We count A few weeks ago. Fiber drones are evolution MORE MORTÍFERA From the contest to the point that Russia has published A manual (image on top) for FPV operations with optical fiber. It includes procedures for wind conditions, such as avoiding the fiber on trees or electric lines that can move and break the cable, and reduce the altitude to 1 or 2 meters to minimize the curvature of the cable. Why the rules change. Regarding the fiber, he remembered The Financial Times that all the last Russian drones use an ultrafine cable to maintain continuous connection with their operator, which makes them immune to electromagnetic interference. Ukrainian defenses, based on GPS signal blocking, radio or cell phone, are useless to this … Read more

Russia in five years

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“Donald, you have taken us to a crucial moment for the United States, Europe and the world. Europe is going to pay, as it should be, and it will be your victory.” With those words he went in A private message Mark Rutte, NATO general secretary, Donald Trump, who did not hesitate to make praise public. In the background, that summit that It is taking place With the expense in defense of the 5% of GDP For European countries as the main theme. Spain still He has not said yesbut there is something that aims to tip the balance definitely. Reinforced commitment. I told it in Exclusive Guardian. Rutte would have confirmed that the 32 member countries have accepted significantly their defense expenditure, even 5 % of GDPand they would have done it for a very simple reason: in direct response to the growing threat which represents Russia. The decision, taken on the eve of the Alliance Summit in the beech that is taking place, is based on the conviction that Moscow could be able to attack an NATO member within a period in a period three to five years. Rutte also stressed that Russia already produces four more times Ammunition that all NATO Board, despite having a much lower economy in size, which requires an immediate increase in the resources assigned to defense and security. The new goal It breaks down In that announced 3.5% for direct military expenditure and an additional 1.5% for cybersecurity, intelligence and other strategic aspects. The warning of Germany. The threat is not new. A few weeks ago he was the head of the German General Staff, General Carsten Breuer, who launched one of the more overwhelming warnings to date from NATO breast: Russia could be in a position to launch a direct attack against one or several alliance members, in particular the Baltic states, before 2029. He did it within the framework of the Shangri-La Security Summit in Singapore, where Breuer said that Russian military accumulation is of such magnitude that an aggression cannot be ruled out even before that date. The general explained that Russia would be producing around 1,500 tanks a year And more than four million artillery rounds of 152 mm, many of which are not allocated to Ukraine but to strategic reserves and new military structures oriented towards the West. According to allied intelligence services, these data reflect not only capacity, but a clear intention to prepare for a direct confrontation With NATO. Screenshots of the text message sent by RUTTE to Trump, published by the president of the United States in his social network Systemic threat. Breuer explained That Kremlin does not see war in Ukraine as an isolated conflict, but as part of a structural escalation against NATO. Hence recent hybrid attacks such as cable sabotage submarines in the Baltic, cyber attacks against European public transport, and unidentified drones on key infrastructure in Germany. The Russian objective would be to prove the strength of allied defenses and identify vulnerable points, such as the known “Suwalki runner”that strategic strip between Poland and Lithuania that connects the Baltic states with the rest of the NATO flanked by Belarus and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. In Breuer’s opinionit is essential that all the members of the Alliance understand the seriousness of the moment: while in Germany “smoke is only seen on the horizon”, in Estonia “the heat is already felt and the flames are seen.” The strategic plant. Had yesterday in a exclusive the independence kyiv A Russian maneuver that has been brewing to the heat of war in Ukraine. Apparently, its strategic missile plant In Votkinsk It has expanded massively, avoiding international sanctions with the help of suppliers from China, Taiwan and Belarus. This state installation, key to missile production Iskander-M short -range and intercontinental missiles such as The Yars and The Bulavaha tripled its production In a year and currently accumulates a sufficient arsenal to hold attacks for at least two years. In addition to building new facilities, hiring more than 2,500 workers and acquiring 7,000 industrial equipment, many of them imported through intermediaries, growth has been funded by Government subsidies Russian. Despite Western sanctions, the plant has received advanced Chinese and Taiwanese machinery through disguised commercial routes. China in the shadow. Not just that. The medium stressed that, in addition, Chinese companies supply Key supplies such as titanium and fuel components. For Ukrainian intelligence, this industrial reinforcement not only seeks to replace what is used in Ukraine, but also prepare for prolonged war and expand the global nuclear attack capacity. Votkinsk, in that sense, represents the epicenter of An expanded network of Russian war production that already transcends the Ukrainian conflict and points to a prolonged confrontation scenario with the West. Missile transfer in Moscow Trump and cohesion. As for the meeting in The Hague, despite the historical tensions between Trump and the NATO, Rutte He has assured That the US president (who has publicly questioned the very existence of the Alliance) is “absolutely committed” to her, although he made it clear that Washington expects more effort from its European partners. The friction: Spain. We have already coming counting. The 5% proposal that is expected has not been adopted without disagreements. Spain He has refused Officially to formally join the common objective, considering it “unreasonable”, and has offered an alternative commitment to spend 2.1% of GDP, arguing that your national defense industry allows you to save significant costs. This position generated Trump’s criticism, which He accused Spain of being a partner that brings little, as well as from Poland and Belgiumwhich warned that granting exceptions mine the NATO unity. Routte, however, minimized tensions, insisting that there are no special treatment, although the final statement of the summit allows Madrid for some flexibility to achieve its capacity commitments. Ukraine, between racks. It is the other elephant in the summit room. Amid the growing Russian military pressure and budgetary debates, Rutte rejected Ukraine It was marginalized. Although this … Read more

An army of 25,000 North Koreans addresses Russia. They will not fight, they will build the biggest army of kamikaze drones

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It is taking place A paradox in the war that is taking place in Europe. While Ukraine has weakened Russian artillery, another growing threat has been increasing more and more over the months. If kyiv became a industry of combat drones in record time, Moscow is determined to overcome. As? To begin with, with the arrival of thousands of North Koreans. Drones, workers and an alliance. The strategic alliance between Russia and North Korea has ceased to be a marginal cooperation to become a structural axis with direct implications in the evolution of the war in Ukraine and in the security architecture of Eastern Asia. According to diplomatic sources cited in media Japanese and Western, Pyongyang has begun to send an army of up to 25,000 workers to the Special Economic Zone of Alabuga, in the Russian Republic of Tartaristan. THE OBJECTIVE: Massive support the industrial production of Shahed dronesof Iranian origin, used by Moscow As a main weapon of saturation and attack in Ukraine. But there is more. This collaboration also includes knowledge transfer operational, training in the use of unmanned systems, and a component of reconstruction aid in combat areas, Like Kurskwhich has suffered important damage from the Ukrainian offensive of August 2024. The arrival of North Korean personnel not only represents a solution to the growing labor shortage qualified in Russia, but also contributes to consolidating a political and military axis based on convergent interests against the West. Mass kamikazes. The Alabuga factory, epicenter of the Russian Drones Shahed program, currently produces some 2,000 units per month with the objective of reach 5,000 Thanks to this new workforce. In fact, satellites They have detected an enormous expansion in the industrial zone, with the construction of Collective bedrooms designed to accommodate hundreds of workersfollowing an intensive and permanent occupation architecture. The logistics reinforcement aims to guarantee the continuity of production even under direct threat, since the plant has repeatedly suffered attacks by Ukrainian drones, as it happened June 15 with a Airrakt A-22 loaded with explosives that towed a glider, unpublished tactics Until then and capable of attacking two goals simultaneously. Russian Drones Shahed A key drone. The Russian need to maintain pressure on Ukrainian defenses has turned Shahed into the backbone of his aerial offensive. It We have counted before: these vehicles are modified to carry major explosive loads and, in some cases, elements of autonomy that make them more difficult to intercept. He massive use (With attacks that reach more than a hundred drones per night) it forces Ukraine to accelerate their anti -aircraft reserves, progressively weakening their defense and reaction capacity. Rebuild with military logic. The sending of North Korean workers is not limited to the production of weapons. After his visit to Pyongyang, Russian Defense Minister Serguéi Shoigú, confirmed the incorporation of about 1,000 North Korean and at least 5,000 civil workers which will participate in the reconstruction of destroyed infrastructure in Kursk. This region, invaded by Ukrainian forces In August 2024 And recovered by Russia after weeks of combat, it has been deeply damaged. Moscow considers its reconstruction essential both in terms of national morals and the logistics sustainability of the front. Not just that. They counted the Twz analysts that the initiative also responds to a Internal logic: Kremlin perceives Central Asian migrants as politically unstable and potentially vulnerable to recruitment for Western or Ukrainian intelligence services, which has driven the search of “Leales migrants”like North Koreans. A labor hybrid. According to General Ukrainian Kyrylo Budanovpart of these workers will end up signing Contracts with the Ministry Russian defense, constituting unofficial units of Russian nationality but North Korean origin, which would mark a new step in hybridization between foreign workforce and regular military structure. Inverse technological transfer. It is another leg to analyze. The alliance has an even deeper geopolitical dimension. According to BudanovRussia is actively helping North Korea to improve the accuracy of Your KN-23 ballistic missilesto Modernize your missiles long-range air-air and reinforce the capacities of Its nuclear submarinesparticularly in relation to missile launch from submerged platforms. Strategic evolution. In exchange for Labor and Cooperation Logistics, Moscow is consolidating a North Korean offensive capacity that could alter military balance in the Korean peninsula. In that sense and how We countPyongyang is developing (with Russian assistance) the necessary infrastructure to produce local versions Of the Shahed drones, which would endow the regime of Kim Jong-un of an arsenal capable of, for example, saturate the aerial defenses of South Korea through mass and simultaneous attacks. This change represents a strategic evolution for a country that until a few years ago operated outside the large global military production chains, but now emerges as a relevant actor in asymmetric technological warfare. “Other” world order. In short, the image of a giant factory where thousands of Russians and North Koreans come together In a Shahed drone assembly line, that Moscow-Pyongyang alliance at a new level. If you also want, it marks the emergence of an authoritarian axis not only military, but also economic and structuralthat frontally challenges the Western Alliances System. What doubt fits, if Russia manages to stabilize its forehead through Drones produced by mass With North Korean help and at the same time strengthens Pyongyang’s strategic capabilities in Asia, global security architecture will experience A dangerous mutation. Now it is not simply an exchange of resources for services, but the training of a Coordinated Interest Network With a shared narrative against the United States, Europe and its Asian allies. Image | KNCA, X. In Xataka | North Korea has been sending armament for months to Russia. In return, Russia is giving him what longs for her: a functional army In Xataka | Ukraine is surviving in the war thanks to the drones. Russia has an ally to change that: North Korea

The drones of the greatest attack against Russia lost the signal before reaching the target. Ukraine had an ace in the manga

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On June 1 and the agreed time, trucks parked for weeks in several points from Russia They opened their doors. A swarm of more than 100 advanced drones thus began a mission that was destined for several air bases in Moscow. Upon reaching the designated objectives, explosive loads were automatically activated. The mission was historic for The sophistication level in the Uncianned war. In fact, the drones even lost every signal before achieving the goal. And at that time the algorithms came into play. The face that changes the war. We had slipped it weeks agobut now it has been The Financial Times The one described that AS in the Ukraine manga so that the Spiderweb operation was a success. The war in Eastern Europe has entered a new phase marked by accelerated integration of artificial intelligence In attack and defense systems, and in “Spiderweb”, where the drones successfully attacked Russian military airfields even beyond the Arctic Circle, it was key. A new generation. The operation, carried out by the Ukraine Security Service (SBU), not only evidenced Kyiv’s technical and strategic capacity for enemybut exposed the growing importance of Automation On the modern battlefield. Behind the attack was a new generation of drones designed by the First Contact companydirected by Valeriy Borovyk, whose flagship, The Osastands out for its sophistication, high -end materials and autonomous navigation capabilities resistant to adverse conditions and interference systems. These devices, five times more expensive that conventional drones were scheduled to continue their flight following pre -established routes even After losing signal and automatically detonate when reaching the goal. SBU map that illustrates drone transports in trucks from Cheliábinsk to the five target air bases Assisted autonomy. He counted the medium that the development of these drones has not been exclusive to a single company. Yaroslav Azhnyuk, creator From The Fourth LawHe explained that both Ukraine and Russia are expanding their deployment capacity of autonomous systems in early stages, although still with partial human intervention in the terminal guidance. For a year, Adehnyuk He has delivered To the lines of the Front Systems with these experimental functions, and other Ukrainian companies have followed the same path. The idea of ​​delegating final decisions to AI in environments where signals can be easily blocked by the enemy has become a tactical need rather than a technological ambition. In parallel, the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine recently announced the activation of carrying drones capable of Fly 300 kilometers and launch two free FPV, thus expanding the operational dimension of these tools in strategic depth. Invisible war. We had already talked about the term With optical fiber. In this war of wear, technology not only responds to advances but also to deficiencies. The lack of anti -aircraft missiles, artillery or ammunition has forced Ukraine to reinvent continuously. Civil foundations like The Prytula Foundationheaded by Bohdan Danyliv, they have contributed hundreds of fixed wing interceptors They have managed to demolish almost 250 Russian drones, demonstrating how improvised solutions have compensated for the shortage of traditional systems. Russia has not been left behind. He has identified Ukrainian drones and has counterattacked with improved modelsmany of them equipped with autonomous technology, optical fiber and even components from American video game consoles, According to services of Ukrainian intelligence. This evolution reveals a technological career in which the borders between civil and military are increasingly blurred. The Russian challenge. It We have explained: One of the most surprising turns has been the effectiveness of Russian drones connected by fiber optic cable, a seemingly rudimentary solution but brutally effective in front of Ukrainian interference systems. This technology, which allows operators to control drones without worrying about electronic blockages, has been decisive in the recent Russian offensive In the Kursk region, where they have made faster advances than at any other time since November. The Ukrainian reaction has been slow. Oleksandr Yakovenko, director of Taf Drones, recognized having underestimated the potential of this technique, and your company now tries to recover land by increasing production to 10,000 fiber optic drones per month, although he admits that they would need to manufacture at least 70,000 to match the Russian offensive capacity. New war balance. It seems clear that drone war It is no longer a complement to the conflict, but its central operating core. In an environment saturated with interference, scarcity of resources and geostrategic pressure, Ukraine and Russia face in a duel where innovation is not a luxury, but A vital imperative. Artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, improvised production networks and unexpected adaptations such as the use of cables or video games are redefining the limits of the possible. Seen, the question that looms over the coming months does not seem to be who has more drones, but who will adapt faster in a war where intelligence, in any of its forms, has become the decisive factor. Image | Ssu.gov.ua In Xataka | The Ukraine War is getting rid, first of all, with drones. And that is leaving an infinite fiber optic trail through the field In Xataka | We suspected that Ukraine drones attack had been destructive. Space images have revealed how much

Russia is surprising Ukraine with suicidal attacks. They are not drones, they are waves of an assault on the Max style motorcycle

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Drones have changed so much Combat tactics that the war in Ukraine has become a Test laboratory where leading and arsenal technologies of the past are mixed to try to find an advantage over the enemy. Already We have seen like the First and second World War were recognized in Some practices. The last one: a Russian offensive that Ukraine did not see to arrive: two -wheel troops offensive waves. Suicide loads. The images That they have state seeing In different channels they are more typical of The Mad Max saga that we saw in the cinema. And not only because of the appearance and surroundings of these squads, but for the type of offensive and the end in most cases. What is appreciated is a dangerous evolution of assault tactics, one where the Russian army has begun to Use motorcycles as a main tool to move towards the Ukrainian lines, in an attempt to avoid the destruction of their armored Modern to the power of precision attack drones. In figures, Telegram told That a quarter of the Russian soldiers who participate in terrestrial offensives now do so on two wheels, a number that underlines Moscow’s strategic despair before an enemy that dominates the air with swarms of DONS FPV. These incursions, which often involve More than 100 motorists simultaneously, they have a mortality rate extremely highwhich is why Russian combatants themselves have begun to share in networks Survival guides with tips that seem to be extracted from a postpocalyptic war scenario. A brutal logic. The logic behind these motorcycle loads is as simple as chilling: the tanks They are easy white and the soldiers on foot too slow. Motorcycles, on the other hand, can move quickly, disperse, zigzagen and, hopefully, dodge the drones before being detected. It happens that speed is not protection, and FPV, with speeds of up to 190 km/hy autonomy of several minutes, make any error into a death sentence. The shared guide on the Russian channel of Telegram Rambo School It summarizes it clearly: “Your motorcycle is speed, no armor. An error is death.” The recommendation: Avoid straight roads, move through broken land, react in less than three seconds, get rid of any extra weight and, if a drone is detected, separate from colleagues to divide the risk. “No frenzy. Or you die,” repeat the central slogan. The small possibility of surviving improves if exhaust routes have been explored and drives between trees, buildings or directly towards the weeds, waiting for drone to shock before impacting. Tactics without return. They counted in Forbes that these attacks do not seek to take a large -scale strategic ground, but to win a few meters and press defensive lines. His success, therefore, is marginal and almost always temporary, but responds to A brutal reality: The life of the Russian soldier is treated as expendable in a wear war where priority is volume, not efficiency. Unlike any western army, which would hardly accept such a low level in a single operation, Russia seems comfortable assuming that 80-90% of these motorcyclists It will not return. Surviving one of these onslaught does not imply a reward, but to be the first in the next wave. A war that mutates. We have gone counting before. The change of military paradigm on the Ukrainian front shows a war that It is reinventing Its forms In real time. Of tanks turned into mobile coffinsit has passed to Light vehicles such as buggies, quads and motorcycles, which offer some more mobility at the cost of protection. The trend seems clear: prioritize evasion over resistance. However, the evolution is reciprocal. If motorcycle loads demonstrate a real tactical threat, it will be possible much before Ukraine introduces specific countermeasures, such as “antimotos” drones with wider fields of vision or explosive fragmentation heads designed to cancel these mobile targets, and then the Russian contrary and thus…. At the moment, Ukraine has already tripled its production of drones in a year, reaching the 4.5 million in 2025with increasingly trained operators to intercept and eliminate motorcyclists before they approach the front. Perpetual sacrifice. In short, the phenomenon of Suicide charges In motorcycle not only evidences the high human cost that is willing to pay, but also the increasingly character asymmetric and technological of the conflict. The image of soldiers without armor launching On dirt roads to avoid drones as if they were intelligent projectiles portrays a war that has left behind any traditional notion of war confrontation. If you want also, what happens in the front is more similar to a lethal experiment of military evolution, where adaptation means the difference between being sprayed in seconds or lasting enough to, perhaps, die in the next wave. The phrase that summarizes this dynamic is not a metaphor, it is a battle array Among the troops: run or die. Image | Telegram/Ministry of Defense of Russia In Xataka | The Ukraine War is getting rid, first of all, with drones. And that is leaving an infinite fiber optic trail through the field In Xataka | Renault was a pioneer in the production of war tanks. And now you will start manufacturing drones for Ukraine

Russia, Emirates and Saudi Arabia are dynamiting the poster from within

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In 1973 one of the greatest energy crises of the twentieth century broke out. Yom Kipur war and the oil embargo decreed by Arab countries fired the price of crude oil, which quadrupled in a few months. The consequence was an economic storm: inflation, recession and a deep geopolitical rearrangement that catapulted the OPEC to the center of the world energy board. Five decades have passed, but oil continues to mark the pulse of global tensions. There is no formal embargo, but worldwide conflicts added to a Commercial War promoted by the United States. Despite all this unstable situation, the OPEC+ has chosen to continue producing for the third consecutive month, in an already saturated market and with prices in descent. Disturbing signals. Against all forecast, OPEC+ has decided to increase its production in full price drop. At its last meeting, the poster, with the impulse of Saudi Arabia, has approved to add 411,000 barrels per day from July. The measure has left several of its own members perplexed, According to Bloomberg. The adjustment is equivalent to just 1.2 % of the global demand, but its political and strategic impact is deeper. Very disparate reasons. A possibility like He has pointed out The Economist is that Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies would be trying to please Donald Trump. During his recent tour of the region, the former president pressed directly to achieve a decrease in fuel prices. In return, Riad and Abu Dabi expect strategic benefits, such as agreements in technological sectors such as In artificial intelligence chips. However, this is not the only motivation. The United States Plan based on an aggressive fracking expansion To lower oil It has altered the global market balance. In this scenario, Saudi Arabia has opted for a blunt response: flood the market with crude. By increasing the supply and forcing a price drop, it seeks to press schist producers in the United States, whose profitability depends on higher prices. This strategy also allows you to punish OPEC+ members who do not respect the quotas and, at the same time, recover part of the lost market share in the face of American unconfral oil. The background problem. The OPEC+ crisis is not only a matter of strategy or prices, but of internal cohesion. The cardinal regla of the poster on not producing more than agreed is being ignored by several members. According to The Economistthe United Arab Emirates (EAU) have declared to produce 2.9 million barrels per day (MB/D), but according to analysts consulted by the medium they have estimated that they would be producing between 200,000 and 500,000 b/d, well above their real share. The most worrying thing for OPEC+ is that even the “secondary sources” that they use to verify figures seem complicit in maintaining this fiction. Many are consultants that depend on contracts with state companies such as ADNOC (EAU) or Saudi Aramco. Although this comes from before. The first to reveal itself as such It was Kazakhstanwho overproduces up to 300,000 b/d above what was agreed in April. While Iraq has difficulty controlling its total production, which includes fields in Kurdish hands. These three countries are weakening the authority of the poster from within. And there is a surprise more. The only member of the group with geopolitical power comparable to the Saudi, has begun to show opposition. Bloomberg has detailed That at the most recent meeting, Russia supported by Algeria and Oman, asked to freeze production in July to evaluate the effects of previous increases, but his proposal was ignored. Saudi Arabia has imposed its plan without consensus, a clear sign that the era of collegiate leadership is over. Are we facing an implosion? If Saudi Arabia fails to control the Emirates or contain divergences with Russia, the poster runs the risk of becoming irrelevant. The promised fees review for this year has been postponed until 2027, which has unleashed frustration in Abu Dhabi. The Emirates, with a capacity that almost reaches 5 MB/D, need only $ 50 per barrel to balance their accounts, compared to the $ 90 that requires Saudi Arabia. The structural divergence between the two is deep. An analyst with contacts in both governments He has warned For The Economist that is only a matter of time for an open clash between the two giants, which could precipitate an Emirati output of the OPEC+. On the edge of collapse. For 65 years, OPEC has survived wars, pandemics and the fracking boom. But it seems that it has reached its limit in this situation, where the demand for oil could reach its peak in the next decade, and many petroesties are determined to sell what they can before it is too late. If internal cohesion continues to erode, if the quotas are unfulfilled unpaid and if the large producers act unilaterally, the OPEC+ will no longer be a global strategic actor and will become a symbolic alliance. The current “crack” is not just prices. It is an institutional “crack.” And this time, it can be definitive. Image | Pexels Xataka | The oil market faces a triple coup and IEA is clear why: Iran, Opep+ and electric vehicles

Now we know why North Korea has never left Ukraine. Send missiles to Russia has made it a power

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For a while nobody has heard more about North Korean troops In the Ukraine War. However, the nation has never left the conflict in Eastern Europe. In fact, now it has been known The scope of the collaboration between Moscow and Pyongyang. While North Korean missiles arrived in Russia, another package of measures and artillery has been transforming the military capacity of North Korea. A war and its missiles. I told yesterday The Guardian. A prepared report For the UN sanctions multilateral group of the UN, it has revealed that Russia is using North Korean armamentincluding ballistic missiles and heavy artillery, to intensify their attacks against Ukrainian cities and destroying critical civil infrastructure. According to this consisting team by 11 countries (Among them the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan and several EU nations), the Kim Jong-un regime has sent Moscow More than 20,000 containers With ammunition since September 2023, equivalent to some nine million projectiles of artillery and rockets. This massive arms supply, a VIOLATION OF RESOLUTIONS The UN Security Council has allowed Russia to hold and intensify its long -distance bombing campaign, especially in urban areas such as Kyiv and Zaporiyia. From Korea to Russia. The revelation arrives shortly after Kim and Putin signed An association treaty Comprehensive strategic in the summer of 2024. The same compromises both powers to Attend mutually If one of them is attacked. This pact formalizes a military alliance that already It had been brewing de facto through the systematic exchange of armament, technology and military personnel. The transfer of weapons It is not limited To projectiles: North Korea has supplied Russia Balistic missilesLong -range multiple launches, self -propelled cannons and other advanced ammunition, sent by sea, air and rail. Military Renaissance. For decades, North Korea dragged a chronicle inability to modernize His army. Isolated by international sanctions, devastated by natural disasters and impoverished by its own autarkic policy, Pyongyang maintained an oxidized military apparatus, with Soviet technology from the mid -twentieth century and insufficient resources to update it. However, and as explained this week The New York TimesRussian invasion to Ukraine has offered Kim Jong-un an unexpected opportunity: a military power needy ammunition, soldiers and conventional material. In exchange for supplying those millions of projectiles and thousands of troops, Kim has received from Moscow Fuel, food, technological assistance and a flow of weapons, components and knowledge that have completely transformed the North Korean military industry. Expanding arsenal. Thanks to this tacit exchange pact, North Korea has multiplied its capacity Armamentistic HE They have identified Modernized tanks with electronic war systems, attack drones led by artificial intelligence, advanced anti-aircraft systems, air-air missiles and naval destroyers equipped with supersonic cruise missiles. Ha also Test missiles Antiacera under the direct supervision of Kim, who has intensified his visits to ammunition factories and military facilities. He kamikaze drones trial With self -destruction capacity, directed by AI, it has been one of the most striking acquisitions, reducing the South Korea gap in the field of conventional weapons. These improvements reflect a Russian technological transfer that would have been unthinkable in the recent past. Troops, experience and diplomacy. Kim has not only exported ammunition. I remembered the Times that has also sent up to 15,000 soldiers North Koreans to the Russian Front, mainly in the Kursk region. Although Moscow initially hid his presence, in the end he recognized his participation as “significant”. For the North Korean regime, this deployment has an incalculable formative value: thousands of soldiers get real experience in combat, returning as veterans, something that not even the South Korean army can exhibit. According to analyststhis symbolic and strategic component full of pride to Kim and reinforces its internal and external image, providing it with greater margin of maneuver against key actors such as Trump or Jinping. If you want also, the result is a north Korea more assertivewith renewed military muscle and expanded negotiation capacity. North Korea nuclear submarine A pact without sanction. It is another of the legs that derive from the alliance. The Cooperation with Russia has allowed North Korea avoid effectively The sanctions of the UN Security Council, which explicitly prohibit the arms trade with the Kim regime. Plus: The Ukrainian conflict has facilitated A perfect route To overcome those restrictions. Moscow needs projectiles and soldiers, Pyongyang Technology and validation. The relationship, which began as A practical exchangehas been institutionalized with the signing of that alliance treaty that we commented. Since then, North Korea has intensified the construction of new destroyers Navales, has reactivated its program Nuclear submarines and has expanded its ammunition industry, multiplying by four its production of artillery projectiles. Naval ambitions. And of all, one of the most disturbing advances We commented recently: The presentation of Choe Hyon destroyerthe first of its class in decades, armed with cruise missiles similar to Russian 3m22 Zirconpotentially nuclear. To this is added the construction project of A nuclear submarinewhose only possibility is a qualitative leap in Pyongyang’s offensive capacity. Although many experts doubt that Moscow dares to share naval nuclear technology (especially a compact reactor for submarines), the fact that North Haya publicly shown The beginning of its construction suggests an unprecedented level of ambition. Its existence, even incomplete, already alters the strategic calculations of the United States and Japan in the Pacific. Errors and improvisations. No doubt, this meteoric advance is not exempt from errors: the recent shipwreck Of the second destroyer, which occurred shortly after his launch, caused Kim’s anger and the arrest of several officers. The incident reveals the pressure that the North Korean leader is exercising on his technical and military apparatus to accelerate development deadlines. Even so, with the support of Russia, these failures do not seem to stop the general rhythm of modernization. Kim has proposed to fulfill the ambitious arms program announced in 2021, and with the resources and knowledge acquired from Moscow, it is closer than ever to achieve it. Power rebalancing. Meanwhile, for Seoul, Tokyo and Washington, the North Korean military transformation … Read more

The undercover operation of Ukraine has left an irreparable hole for Russia. Its nuclear deterrence has jumped through the air

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If they had told us that a fleet of trucks disguised as mobile houses was going to enter Russia in a covert operation of a year and a half, and that after that time a swarm of more than 100 drones would attack with surgical precision several air bases of Moscow, we would not have believed it. However, and beyond A mission That seems more typical of a Hollywood film, the operation has meant a hole for Russia that can hardly be replaced in the short term. A letter clue In negotiations. Unprecedented. It We count yesterday. On June 1, 2025, Ukraine carried out the greatest operation with war drones to date, launching 117 drones against at least four Russian air bases in a coordinated attack that had as its direct objective the backbone of Russian strategic aviation: its long -range bombers. Until then, the Ukrainian attacks on these platforms had been sporadic and limited to a single location, but this blow, simultaneously executed against Belaya, Olenya, Dyagilevo and Ivanovo, says A radical change in the Ukrainian capacity to penetrate deeply in Russian airspace and degrade key strategic assets. Figures While there is still uncertainty about the exact number of destroyed or damaged aircraft, Ukraine claims to have impacted At least 41 aircraftwith 13 of them completely destroyed, including bombers Tu-22m3, TU-95msan early alert plane A-50 and possibly a TU-160 Blackjackthe most sophisticated bomber in Russia. An irreplaceable fleet. The importance of these bombers is not only in their conventional offensive capacity, but Its nuclear role within the Russian strategic triad. If the Ukraine figures are confirmed, the damages would be equivalent to a loss of the 10% of the force TU-95ms operational, for example, an alarming percentage considering that these aircraft have no immediate replacement. The TU-95ms, designed in the fifties and produced until the early nineties, It has been modernizingbut its value is more strategic than monetary. In the case of TU-22m3, another relic of the Cold War, its current use has been marked by devastating bombings with KH-22 missiles converted, causing Large number of deaths civilians in Ukraine. The loss of several of these airplanes greatly complicates their replacement. For its part, the TU-160the only one of these models still in production, represents a minimal fraction of the fleet and each unit costs more than 500 million dollars. Plus: Build new It has been for years and requires an industrial infrastructure diminished by sanctions. Your 22m3 Blow to nuclear deterrence. The Ukrainian attack, by Its scope and precisionnot only neutralizes short -term attack capacity, but also weakens Russia’s credibility as nuclear power. These bombers constitute the most flexible part of their Dysuasoria triadnot only for its role in conventional conflicts, but for its ability to launch nuclear missiles from remote distances. In addition, they also fulfill symbolic functions, patrolling the airspace of Europe, Asia and even approaching Alaska’s environment As a sample of force. The loss of aircraft in this sector undermines that projection. Moscow has repeatedly argued that attacks on its strategic abilities represent a red line, but so far it has not responded proportionally To attacks that have been growing in scope and intensity. This operation, however, marks An climb difficult to ignore. At 50u Structural vulnerability. The attack has also clearly exposed the persistent vulnerability of the Russian aviation on land. Although defensive measures implemented from previous attacks (such as aircraft dispersion, anti -explosive wallsreinforced shelters, models painted on tracks and wings tires To confuse drone guidance systems), the infrastructure has not achieved Protect airplanes whose large size even prevents them from protecting them completely. In fact, they were used junk aircraft Like lures, but none of that avoided the damage. The anti -aircraft defenses installed in the bases have been insufficient once again. The dispersion of bombers to remote places such as Olenya or Belaya intended to complicate Ukrainian attacks, but failed to avoid a huge scale and precision. Doctrinal change and a threat. Also We count widely yesterday. The Spiderweb Operation Not only demonstrated the technical capacity of Ukraine to infiltrate enemy territory with small and cheap drones, but also an emerging war doctrine focused on saturate and erode assets clue. This tactic not only damages expensive equipment with economic means, but it forces Russia to deploy even more Resources in static defensereduces its operational freedom and generates constant uncertainty. While Moscow launches nightly hundreds of drones against Ukraine, kyiv showed that he can strike back at unthinkable distances only one year ago. And it also does it with tools that evolve: the use of drones with improved countermeasures is expected, artificial intelligence To avoid The Jamming and the elimination of the human pilot in real time, which will further difficult to detect and neutralization. Putin and invulnerability. Bloomberg had Another leg that must be analyzed after the attack. Beyond the exact count of destroyed airplanes, the mission has shaken the Kremlin environment. The internal reaction itself has been alarm, anger and recognition of a scenario so far unthinkable: that nuclear assets can be legitimate and effective white from a country that No nuclear armament. Although the number of bombers needed to attack Ukraine is limited and Moscow could maintain its rhythm of envestidas, the underlying message seems clear: there is no territory Absolutely safe. This perception directly affects the Force projection that Putin has cultivated for two decades and erodes his rhetoric of strategic supremacy. The nuclear triad, touched. We said it at the beginning. Long -range aviation is the smallest component (and now, more damaged) Russian nuclear triadalso composed of intercontinental and strategic submarine ballistic missiles. Although bombers are frequently used in conventional missions, they are also part of the global deterrent gear. Its symbolic character as nuclear projection instruments add a layer of gravity to the attack. Even if its operating role within the nuclear arsenal is secondary to missiles or submarines, the perception that they can be neutralized from the interior of Russia represents that doctrinal change … Read more

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