Russia in five years

“Donald, you have taken us to a crucial moment for the United States, Europe and the world. Europe is going to pay, as it should be, and it will be your victory.” With those words he went in A private message Mark Rutte, NATO general secretary, Donald Trump, who did not hesitate to make praise public. In the background, that summit that It is taking place With the expense in defense of the 5% of GDP For European countries as the main theme. Spain still He has not said yesbut there is something that aims to tip the balance definitely.

Reinforced commitment. I told it in Exclusive Guardian. Rutte would have confirmed that the 32 member countries have accepted significantly their defense expenditure, even 5 % of GDPand they would have done it for a very simple reason: in direct response to the growing threat which represents Russia. The decision, taken on the eve of the Alliance Summit in the beech that is taking place, is based on the conviction that Moscow could be able to attack an NATO member within a period in a period three to five years.

Rutte also stressed that Russia already produces four more times Ammunition that all NATO Board, despite having a much lower economy in size, which requires an immediate increase in the resources assigned to defense and security. The new goal It breaks down In that announced 3.5% for direct military expenditure and an additional 1.5% for cybersecurity, intelligence and other strategic aspects.

The warning of Germany. The threat is not new. A few weeks ago he was the head of the German General Staff, General Carsten Breuer, who launched one of the more overwhelming warnings to date from NATO breast: Russia could be in a position to launch a direct attack against one or several alliance members, in particular the Baltic states, before 2029. He did it within the framework of the Shangri-La Security Summit in Singapore, where Breuer said that Russian military accumulation is of such magnitude that an aggression cannot be ruled out even before that date.

The general explained that Russia would be producing around 1,500 tanks a year And more than four million artillery rounds of 152 mm, many of which are not allocated to Ukraine but to strategic reserves and new military structures oriented towards the West. According to allied intelligence services, these data reflect not only capacity, but a clear intention to prepare for a direct confrontation With NATO.

Systemic threat. Breuer explained That Kremlin does not see war in Ukraine as an isolated conflict, but as part of a structural escalation against NATO. Hence recent hybrid attacks such as cable sabotage submarines in the Baltic, cyber attacks against European public transport, and unidentified drones on key infrastructure in Germany.

The Russian objective would be to prove the strength of allied defenses and identify vulnerable points, such as the known “Suwalki runner”that strategic strip between Poland and Lithuania that connects the Baltic states with the rest of the NATO flanked by Belarus and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. In Breuer’s opinionit is essential that all the members of the Alliance understand the seriousness of the moment: while in Germany “smoke is only seen on the horizon”, in Estonia “the heat is already felt and the flames are seen.”

The strategic plant. Had yesterday in a exclusive the independence kyiv A Russian maneuver that has been brewing to the heat of war in Ukraine. Apparently, its strategic missile plant In Votkinsk It has expanded massively, avoiding international sanctions with the help of suppliers from China, Taiwan and Belarus. This state installation, key to missile production Iskander-M short -range and intercontinental missiles such as The Yars and The Bulavaha tripled its production In a year and currently accumulates a sufficient arsenal to hold attacks for at least two years.

In addition to building new facilities, hiring more than 2,500 workers and acquiring 7,000 industrial equipment, many of them imported through intermediaries, growth has been funded by Government subsidies Russian. Despite Western sanctions, the plant has received advanced Chinese and Taiwanese machinery through disguised commercial routes.

China in the shadow. Not just that. The medium stressed that, in addition, Chinese companies supply Key supplies such as titanium and fuel components. For Ukrainian intelligence, this industrial reinforcement not only seeks to replace what is used in Ukraine, but also prepare for prolonged war and expand the global nuclear attack capacity.

Votkinsk, in that sense, represents the epicenter of An expanded network of Russian war production that already transcends the Ukrainian conflict and points to a prolonged confrontation scenario with the West.

Trump and cohesion. As for the meeting in The Hague, despite the historical tensions between Trump and the NATO, Rutte He has assured That the US president (who has publicly questioned the very existence of the Alliance) is “absolutely committed” to her, although he made it clear that Washington expects more effort from its European partners.

The friction: Spain. We have already coming counting. The 5% proposal that is expected has not been adopted without disagreements. Spain He has refused Officially to formally join the common objective, considering it “unreasonable”, and has offered an alternative commitment to spend 2.1% of GDP, arguing that your national defense industry allows you to save significant costs.

This position generated Trump’s criticism, which He accused Spain of being a partner that brings little, as well as from Poland and Belgiumwhich warned that granting exceptions mine the NATO unity. Routte, however, minimized tensions, insisting that there are no special treatment, although the final statement of the summit allows Madrid for some flexibility to achieve its capacity commitments.

Ukraine, between racks. It is the other elephant in the summit room. Amid the growing Russian military pressure and budgetary debates, Rutte rejected Ukraine It was marginalized. Although this year the usual Notan-Ukraine Council will not be held, President Zelenskyy has attended a dinner organized by the King of Netherlands.

Rutte reiterated his optimism about him Continuous support to Kyivwhich currently faces an alarming deterioration of its air defense and the new Russian advances, especially in the Sumy area. Meanwhile, Putin, from Russia’s economic forum, reaffirmed his ambition to Control all Ukrainewhich confirms, according to Routte, the urgency of maintaining and strengthening Western military support.

A new cycle. What does seem clear, if an “agreement” is confirmed between European nations, is that this turn in defense policy reflects not only the aggravation of the war scenario in the old continent, but also the priorities redefinition Within the alliance.

NATO is not only rearma in front of Russian aggressionbut it begins to consolidate a vision of shared security that transcends the military and incorporates intelligence, cyber -defense and industrial projection. Rutte has decisive hours in which NATO tries to respond with cohesion to the Russian challenge without fracturing inside, a difficult equilibrism game between US demands and the political capacities and capacities of its European partners.

Image | Dmitry TerekhovMinistry of Defense of the Russian Federation

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