Early on Saturday, January 3, a raid by the United States Delta Force broke into the Fuerte Tiuna military complex, located in the south of Caracas, to arrest Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores, the president of Venezuela and his wife. Shortly after, someone was looking at his account. Polymarket and he rubbed his hands: that same Friday he had invested $30,000 betting on Maduro’s departure. With his arrest on Saturday, he had obtained a profit of $436,759.61. How lucky. A new account and a lucrative “hunch”. Polymarket’s Burdensome-Mix account barely I was a week old on the PolyMarket platform, but in record time it became one of the most fervent and active in “predict”“ Maduro’s departure during the hours before the operation. In a few hours he had gone from injecting money when the bet investment was at bargain prices to skyrocket: his participation had obtained a total return of more than 1,333.33% and a profit of at least 1,233.33% more than what he bet in less than 24 hours. PolyMarket. Tyson Brody Many people may have been caught off guard by Maduro’s arrest, but it certainly wasn’t for everyone: there are people who anticipated events and earned thousands of dollars as a result. Whether for him pizzometer or looking at Polymarket and company, something was brewing. In fact, there are already those has developed a tool to track suspicious activity on Polymarket because yes, there are those who decide to invest in what Elon Musk will become president of the United States and throw away his money like that (spoiler: he is South African and the US Constitution vetoes the presidency to foreigners), but he has long since emerged as one of the best seers of immediate events. As explained one of the creatorsPolymarket API keys are available to everyone and from here, it’s a matter of analyzing new wallets, unusual sizes and repeat entries into certain market niches. Suspicious behavior like the one that took place on Friday, when his tracker flagged five different alerts hours before Operation Absolute Resolve happened. The market that was betting on Maduro’s departure rose strongly before 10 p.m. on Friday after being at very low figures during the previous weeks, as picks up The Wall Street Journal. Polymarket What has happened in Venezuela. Nicolás Maduro was captured by US special forces following Operation Absolute Resolve in an intervention that threatens international lawalthough the United States relies on its domestic jurisdiction. Yesterday he was transferred to Stewart Air National Guard Base, a military airport in New York, and later landed at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, where he will face trial for drug trafficking and weapons possession. Donald Trump gave the details of the operation at the relevant press conference ensuring that “We are going to govern Venezuela until there is a safe transition” and that after the operation, American energy companies will take care of Venezuela’s oil industry. The official White House rapid response support account published a video where Nicolás Maduro was seen detained, being escorted through a hallway while he congratulated the new year to the people who were in his path. Tap to go to the post The insider trading of the prediction market. The Polymarket user’s operation draws so much attention that it seems evident that he knew what was going to happen in some way, which closes the circle to spheres very close to the president insofar as neither Congress nor his Defense Committee knew about this operation (much less had they authorized it, as he complained the governor of New York State on Twitter). Needless to say, what is known in financial markets as insider trading (trafficking of privileged information) It also happens in prediction markets like Polymarket, Kalshi either PredictIt and it is not only that it is allowed, but it is an ecosystem that favors it: Polymarket accounts are anonymous, global and transparent using technology from the blockchainso from there it is not possible to pull the thread of that lucrative operation. Furthermore, they are decentralized systems and operations are in USDCa stablecoin linked to the US dollar to avoid volatility and with very low commissions. The Polymarket phenomenon returns to its old ways. This is not the first time we have talked about Polymarket in terms of striking movements linked to politics, so Maduro’s thing is not something that is new. Without going any further, these markets came to the fore when they were revealed announcing a clear discrepancy in the 2024 United States Presidency elections compared to traditional analyzes and in turn, most accurate with respect to reality. With that move, French investor Freddi9999 struck gold: betting Due to Trump’s victory, his profits amounted to 85 million dollars, according to Bloomberg. Polymarket and company are not a mere betting platform like those for sporting events, but they have changed the discourse from betting to investmentwhich affects both linguistics and regulation. Thus, they are defined as “event contracts”, which allows them to sneak into the traditional financial system with the approval of leading players in the sector. like the owners of the New York Stock Exchange. The idea on paper is simple: as a user, you can express your opinion by buying or selling shares in eventual outcomes of events in operations executed between peers using smart contracts. Markets grow as they have more participants and prices mirror the perceived probability of an event occurring. It is clear that a lot of money can be made by predicting major news events, although we will have to see how long. In Xataka | Five years ago he worked from his bathroom on the brink of ruin. Today he runs a company valued at 8 billion In Xataka | I don’t bet, I invest: Polymarket and company have sophisticated gambling addiction to the point of making it indistinguishable from “investing” Cover | Chancellery of Ecuador from Ecuador, CC BY-SA 2.0 and Hanna Pad