Russia

Ukraine has turned Russia into a fearsome air force

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In 1991, during the Gulf War, the United States discovered something uncomfortable: despite its total air superiority, it could not prevent Iraq from continuing to launch scud missiles from mobile platforms that appeared and disappeared in the desert. That frustration left a clear lesson For military strategists: in modern warfare, it is not enough to dominate the air, you must constantly adapt to an enemy that also learns. From questioned strength to real threat. During the first stages of the invasion of Ukraine, Russian aviation was perceived like a disappointment unable to achieve air superiority, which led many Western analysts to perhaps hastily underestimate it. However, with the passage of time, that vision has started to change disturbingly, especially in Europe, where aviation security experts have focused on something that is no longer an intuition: that the conflict has not weakened Russia, but rather the has forced to learn. Accumulated experience, system improvements and tactical adaptation have transformed a force that seemed limited into a much more dangerous and credible actor than it was before 2022. War as a laboratory. They remembered on Insider that, far from collapsing, Russian aviation has used Ukraine as a real training environment where pilots and crews have gained experience in high-intensity combat. Although it has lost aircraft, it has retained a large part of its qualified personnel and has compensated for those losses with sustained production of new aircraft, which has allowed it to maintain and even expand its fleet. This process has corrected one of its greatest historical weaknesses, the lack of flight hours, turning its pilots into more prepared fighters for complex scenarios. More reach, less risk. One of the most significant changes has been the evolution of his attack capacitywhich now increasingly relies on long-range weapons and systems that allow you to hit without directly exposing yourself. We are talking about advanced missiles, gliding bombs and remote attacks that have reduced the need to penetrate defended airspace, greatly complicating the enemy response. This way of fighting has not only proven to be effective in Ukraine, but also poses a worrying scenario. for future conflictswhere control of the air no longer depends solely on physically dominating it. Constant pressure from the air. They counted on ukrainian media that, in parallel, Russia has intensified its air campaign with massive and increasingly sophisticated use of drones and missiles, launching thousands of devices and perfecting saturation tactics to overwhelm defenses. Coordinated attacks, changes in flight patterns and the combination of different types of weapons have made it possible to maintain continuous pressure on infrastructure and the civilian population, generating not only material but also psychological wear. This strategy turns air into space permanent threatwhere the defense can never relax. A more complex threat. If you will, the result is a Russian air force that, although it still has structural limitations and does not match NATO in a direct confrontation, has become much scariest and most difficult to counteract. The combination of strengthened air defense, better coordination between systems and a more adaptive doctrine presents a scenario for its enemies in which achieving air superiority will be much more expensive and risky. In other words, a paradox has developed and is beginning to take hold, one where Ukraine has not only resisted Russian aviation, but, by forcing it to evolve, has contributed to turning it into a more sophisticated and persistent threat to the European military balance. Image | Alan Wilsonparfaits In Xataka | If fog was deadly in Ukraine’s winter, spring is offering Russia a key advantage: greenery In Xataka | Ukraine is close to what no one has achieved in a war: shooting down missiles for less than a million dollars

Ukraine has tested whether Russia was complying with the ceasefire with an optical illusion in the open field. The video is self-explanatory

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during the call Christmas Truce In the First World War, enemy soldiers came out of their trenches, exchanged gifts and even played soccer games in no man’s land, in one of the most unusual episodes of the conflict. That scene, as brief as it was unexpected, showed to what extent war can change shape in a matter of hours. A ceasefire on paper. Russia had announced a ceasefire for Orthodox Easter with a strong symbolic and political component, seeking to project an image of negotiating will in the middle of war. However, on the ground the reality has been very different, with thousands of violations recorded in just 32 hours, including artillery attacks, assaults and a massive use of tactical drones. Although long-range attacks were reduced, information arriving from kyiv They point out that the intensity on the near front was maintained, reflecting a dynamic where pauses are used more as a narrative tool than as a true attempt to stop the fighting. The war of stories. Both Moscow and kyiv tried to position themselves as the party that respected the truce, in a conditioned diplomatic pulse also due to international pressure, especially from the United States. While Russia defended having complied with the ceasefire, Ukraine documented thousands of violations in a matter of hours, showing an obvious gap between the official discourse and what was happening on the battlefield. This duality reinforced the idea that truce announcements are part of a communication strategy as much as the war itself. The unexpected test: an optical illusion. In this context, Ukraine decided to go beyond the accusations and designed a direct test to check Russian behavior: evacuate apparently own soldiers, unarmed and wounded, complying with all the conditions of a ceasefire. It turns out that, in reality, it was Russian prisoners in disguise with neutral uniforms, used as a kind of “visual bait” to verify whether the agreements were respected. The scene functioned as a kind of terrifying optical illusion on the battlefield, where what looked like a legitimate evacuation hid a carefully prepared experiment. The video that dismantles the truce. The outcome was so fast as forceful: because a swarm of Russian drones attacked the evacuees, killing several of them without knowing that they were actually their own captured soldiers. The episode, recorded on video and broadcast Later on different social networks, he crudely exposed the fragility of the ceasefire and the inability (or lack of will) to respect it even in situations clearly protected by the rules of war. Beyond the tactical impact, the incident became in a visual test difficult to refute about what was really happening on the front. An episode that also leaves everyone in a bad light due to the crudeness of the visual piece. An impossible truce. If you also want, the set of events confirms that the ceasefire was, in practice, untenable in a conflict where both parties seek to maintain the military initiative while competing for the international narrative. For Russia, the test reveals the extent to which modern combat (based on the intensive use of drones, quick decisions and targets detected without full verification) can turn against him even in sensitive situations. For Ukraine, the test not only highlighted Russian non-compliance, but also showed the extent to which the battle has entered a phase where even humanitarian gestures can become in strategic tools. In this scenario, the truce was nothing more than a nominal pause in a war that continues to develop with the same intensity under a layer of unfulfilled promises. Image | x In Xataka | If fog was deadly in Ukraine’s winter, spring is offering Russia a key advantage: greenery In Xataka | Ukraine is close to what no one has achieved in a war: shooting down missiles for less than a million dollars

If fog was deadly in Ukraine’s winter, spring is offering Russia a key advantage: greenery

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In modern conflicts, small changes in the environment can completely alter the balance of combat, even in the face of advanced technologies such as combat drones or sensors. Throughout history, factors such as climate, the ground or the vegetation have conditioned entire offensivesdeciding when and how to attack. In many cases, the difference between advancing or being exposed didn’t depend on a weapon, but on what was happening in the landscape. The same is happening in Ukraine. The cold as an invisible brake. It we count in several occasions. Last winter, the war in Ukraine was marked for a factor as silent as it is decisive: the visibility and conditions meteorological conditions that favored some over others, where the absence of vegetation and phenomena such as the fog and the cold They turned the battlefield into an exposed and lethal space for any offensive movement. In that environment, the drones dominated the air with ease, detecting practically any movement and converting each advance into an immediate risk. Russia, despite its superiority in resources, saw its momentum partially slowed while Ukraine took advantage of this scenario to stabilize the front and launch limited but effective counterattacks. Spring changes the script. With the arrival of spring, that balance begins to break because the terrain is no longer the same nor is the visibility. The vegetation, especially the lines of trees that run through the agricultural fields, introduces a concealment element which profoundly alters the dynamics of combat. So, I remembered this morning the new york times that what was previously an open space dominated by sensors and drones is transformed into a fragmented environment where movement is once again possible, even if in a limited and slower way. Trees as a tactical weapon. Tree lines, inherited from the soviet era to protect crops, they have become natural corridors for the advance, withdrawal and reorganization of troops, offering cover from constant aerial surveillance. In a conflict where large mechanized movements have lost effectiveness, the war is now being fought on foot and in small groupsand this vegetation cover reduces exposure and increases the chances of survival. Vegetation does not eliminate drone threatbut it does hinder their detection ability, enough to change the probabilities on the ground. The Russian advantage. They remembered in the Times that, although both sides benefit from this new coverage, Ukraine recognizes that the effect can favor Russia more due to its greater number of troops, which allows it to better take advantage of any concealment opportunity and advance with fewer relative losses. In areas such as around the Dnieper River, where vegetation has grown especially dense, Russian troops can concentrate and maneuver with a level of discretion that did not exist in winter. This change does not guarantee decisive advances, but it does increase the options for achieve tactical progress. War and the seasons. If you like, the evolution of the conflict confirms to what extent seasonal factors They continue to be decisive even in a dominated war by advanced technologywhere each season alters the rules of combat. If winter favored the defense by exposing the attacker, spring introduces a room for maneuver that Russia tries to exploit to regain initiative. Even so, the constant presence of drones maintains large areas of the front as spaces of high lethality, which limits the scope of any offensive and suggests that, despite the change in scenario, the war will continue to be slow, costly and still far from being resolved in the short term. Image | 7th Army Training Command In Xataka | If the question is where Russia’s missiles come from in the Ukrainian war, the answer is surprising: from cigarette filters In Xataka | Neither drones nor missiles nor AI, the war in Ukraine has turned a vehicle from 1950 into a key piece: the M113

The big problem with nuclear energy has always been its waste. Russia can now recycle them up to five times

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A nuclear reactor operating for 60 years using a closed system of three circulating fuel loads, subjected to cleaning processes and specific recharges in each cycle. What until recently seemed like an unattainable technical utopia for the energy industry is the reality that Russia’s latest technological breakthrough points to. The historic Achilles heel of nuclear fission—radioactive waste—is about to take a radical turn to become an almost inexhaustible resource. The magnitude of the test. The press release of Atom Media explains that Unit 1 of the Balakovo nuclear power plant (operated by Rosatom’s energy division) has just made history. They have successfully removed the last three lead test assemblies from an innovative fuel dubbed REMIX. These groups have completed three operating cycles of 18 months each. We are talking about 54 months performing at maximum capacity in a Russian commercial reactor type VVER-1000, thus exhausting its standard useful life. This puts the finishing touch to a demanding pilot program which started at the end of 2021 when the first six experimental rods were introduced into the reactor core. The resounding success. The most impressive thing about this milestone is not just that the fuel works, but where it works. Unlike other experiments designed for new generation fast reactors, REMIX fuel can be used in light water thermal reactors already operating massively around the planet. And without the need to modify its design or add costly security measures. The rehearsal went flawlessly. Yuri Ryzhkov, deputy chief engineer of the Balakovo power plant, detailed: “After each cycle, the fuel rods and structural elements were inspected using the television camera of the refueling machine. No deviations were detected during operation; neutron, physical and service characteristics remained within the design limits.” The science behind REMIX. But what exactly is this material? REMIX comes from Regenerated Mixture (Regenerated Mixture). Instead of using the usual natural enriched uranium, Russian scientists have created a matrix pellet that mixes regenerated uranium and plutonium (both recovered from already spent and reprocessed nuclear fuel), seasoned with some fresh enriched uranium. The technical key to the process is in the proportion: it maintains a very low level of plutonium, up to 1.5%. Thanks to this exact formulation, its neutron spectrum is practically identical to that of standard fuel. For practical purposes, the reactor core behaves the same and does not even “notice” the difference. The cleaning process. It is the circular economy taken to the atomic extreme. The magazine World Nuclear Newyes explains that this recycling cycle can be repeated up to five times. With each pass, the industry reprocesses the material to separate the useful uranium and plutonium from the fission products, which constitute the true radioactive waste. This useless waste is extracted and vitrified (encapsulated in glass) to be permanently and safely buried in geological deposits, while the useful fuel mixture is reintroduced into the reactor. The vision of the balanced cycle. Now it’s time for the laboratory and certification phase, where the irradiated material, now resting in cooling pools, will travel to the Atomic Reactor Research Institute in Dimitrovgrad for exhaustive analysis. Alexander Ugryumov, Vice President of R&D at TVEL (Rosatom’s fuel subsidiary), He announced that after these studies They will be able to bring the product to the market. The next evolutionary step will be to test mixtures with depleted uranium and up to 5% plutonium. All this is part of what Rosatom has called the “Balanced Nuclear Fuel Cycle” (NFC). The goal is to drastically reduce the volume and danger of radioactive waste, solving the historic problem of long-term storage for future generations and guaranteeing a truly sustainable production system. An impact on a global scale. Although the technical success is undeniable and the operational milestone in a commercial reactor is demonstrated, the mass adoption of this technology on a global level will largely depend on the commercialization costs and the economic viability of large-scale reprocessing; factors that the industry must demonstrate after the current qualification phase. However, if Rosatom manages to market REMIX at competitive prices, the global energy situation could take an unprecedented turn. We are not talking about a niche experiment. The data provided by Atom Media illustrate this magnitude: TVEL currently supplies fuel to more than 70 power reactors in 15 countries. Today, one in six reactors in the world operates with its technology. Moving from a linear “use and bury” industry to a closed loop where nuclear resources have multiple lives would not only dramatically expand the planet’s energy reserves, but could forever redefine the ecological viability of nuclear energy. Image | atom Xataka | The US has to make a crucial decision in Iran: exit without destroying its nuclear capabilities or a terrestrial “armaggedon”

the one that Russia gave him

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In modern warfare, see before the enemy can be more decisive than shooting first, hence some military systems current ones are capable of monitoring areas the size of an entire country from the air. We are talking about devices whose cost can exceed 500 million dollars per unit. The problem is that even these key pieces depend on something much more fragile than it seems: information. Without “eyes” in the war. In the last 48 hours, Iran has achieved something much more relevant than destroying a plane: has rendered useless one of the few key systems that allow the United States to see the battlefield from hundreds of kilometers, the E-3 Sentrya true aerial nerve center that coordinates fighters, detects threats and maintains superiority in the air. Its destruction is not symbolic (it barely keeps a fraction of the 16 it had operational), It is functionalbecause it eliminates real capacity surveillance and command at a critical moment, forcing the few remaining aircraft to take on more load and increasing blind spots in the theater of operations. In a conflict where every second of detection makes a difference, losing one of these assets is equivalent to fighting with your eyes partially bandaged. 500 million. They counted in the Telegraph that satellite images showed a few hours ago the destroyed fuselage of the four-engine United States Air Force plane on the runway of the air base in Saudi Arabia. Among the twisted metal remains, what looked like a large flying saucer lay face down. It is, or was, the crotating radar dome which typically sits atop E-3, the $500 million air operations nerve center that allows commanders to track everything in the air over hundreds of miles. Images of the destroyed E-3 Invisible help. The attack, furthermore, not only reveals precision, but also high-level prior intelligence, and that is where a decisive factor comes in: Russia. According to various sources, including his own president of UkraineMoscow provided images satellites from the base days before the attack, allowing Iran to know the exact location of the planes and choose the most vulnerable point, right where the E-3 radar is located. This support transformed a conventional attack into a surgical operation, demonstrating that war is no longer decided only by who shoots, but by who sees first and best. The Russian-Iranian collaboration turns each strike into more than just a tactical impact: it is a demonstration of network warfare against the American military architecture. Aging fleet. The severity of the blow is multiplied because the United States barely has these systems and its fleet is aging. As we said, only It had 16 units in total and many of them not operational at all times. Therefore, although the loss of one may be replaceable, since there is no immediate active production and replacement programs accumulate delays and political doubts. This leaves Washington in an awkward position, where each casualty is not just a material cost, but a structural reduction of capabilities in the middle of war, just when it is most necessary to maintain constant coverage over the airspace. The bombed base Bases exposed to missiles and drones. The attack also exposes an increasingly obvious weakness: America’s most valuable assets remain parked. in poorly protected bases against long range weapons. Although an attempt was made to disperse the planes to make them difficult to locate, the combination of satellite intelligence, drones and missiles has shown that this strategy is insufficient. Without hardened shelters and adequate protection, even key systems can be destroyed on the ground without the need for direct confrontationconfirming that technological superiority is of little use if critical assets are vulnerable before takeoff. War of attrition. Meanwhile, Iran has adapted its strategy toward a sustained pace of attacks. smaller but constantseeking not so much to saturate the defenses as to wear them down over time. With a still significant arsenal and the ability to coordinate still complex strikes, Tehran maintains continuous pressure while forcing the United States and its allies to expend interceptors and critical resources. This attrition logic, combined with selective attacks on key nodes such as radars or aircraft of command, multiplies the impact of each action and reinforces the central idea: it is not about launching more missiles, but about hitting where it hurts most. Silent shifting. Be that as it may, the episode points to a deeper transformation: modern war no longer revolves only around destroying forces, but to blind systems. Iran has not only attacked infrastructure or troops, but the information layer that supports the entire US military operation, and it has done so relying in external intelligence. The result is a clear signal, another onefor future conflicts: that whoever manages to disable the adversary’s sensors and command networks will have a decisive advantageeven against technologically superior powers. Image | USF In Xataka | Iran has achieved something unprecedented in the Middle East: that the US has to abandon its military bases In Xataka | While the US bombs Iran, something unusual has happened: drones attacking the nuclear bases in North Dakota

With the arrival of good weather in Ukraine, Russia thought it was a good idea to bring out its hidden tanks. It wasn’t at all

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In 2022, many analysts assumed that tanks would remain the undisputed symbol of land power, but four years later the battlefield has evolved to the point where multi-ton vehicles can be neutralized for systems that fit in a backpack and cost thousands of times less. A return at the worst time. Winter is giving way to spring in Ukraine, and Russia has decided it was time to bring out its armored vehicles again after almost one year of limited useconvinced that she could regain initiative on the front. However, this movement has collided head-on with the current reality of the battlefield: an environment saturated with drones, remote mines and sensors where any concentration of vehicles becomes an almost immediate target. What on paper should have been an offensive reactivation has translated, in its first stages, in massive losses of material, with mechanized attacks that have ended in authentic “massacres” in a matter of minutes. From hiding to exposing yourself. For much of the last year, Russia had chosen to reduce the use of vehicles and advance with small groups of infantry to minimize their exposure. That tactic, although costly in lives, was more difficult to neutralize in a battlefield dominated by drones. But the enormous human wear and tear (with hundreds of thousands of casualties) has forced Moscow to rethink its approach. The return to mechanized attacks is not so much a choice as a necessity: replacing men with machines, even if that means assuming a new type of vulnerability. The Soviet heritage. It we have counted on other occasions. To sustain this change, Russia has begun to turn to its deeper reservesreactivating T-72 tanks from the 1970s and 1980s that remained in storage for years. This movement reveals an important turn in the contest, because it is no longer about deploying the best available, but rather to maintain volume at any price. The Russian military industry is still capable of regenerating units, but increasingly with older materialmore heterogeneous and less adapted to an environment where threats come from above and not from the front. A battlefield that does not forgive armor. The problem from the Moscow sidewalk is that the context has radically changed. Drones, capable of detecting, tracking and attacking vehicles with great precision, have turned mechanized advances into operations andxtremely risky. Added to this are remotely deployed mines and coordinated attacks that turn any movement in a trap. What was once the spearhead of offensives now behaves like a slow, visible and predictable target, especially when deployed in a group. Hit logistics to wear out. In addition, a parallel strategy is added to this direct pressure on the vehicles: the continuous attack to the rear. The Ukrainian coups against fuel tankslogistics nodes and supply centers seek to make any accumulation of armored vehicles on the front meaningless. And without fuel and maintenance, even a large number of vehicles lose operational value. Thus, the Russian problem is not only how many tanks you can deploy, but how long you can keep them functioning in real combat conditions. Accelerate burnout. In short, Russia appears to be trading a depleting resource (the labor) for another that is also beginning to become scarce: his armored legacy of the Cold War. In the short term it may be able to sustain the pressure on the front, but if current losses continue, the material cost can quickly grow to become unsustainable. In that scenario, the return of the tanks It does not seem to represent a return to conventional warfare, but rather a risky bet on a battlefield that has already evolved. faster than them. Image | Telegram In Xataka | Iran is winning the war with “Ukrainian mathematics”: there is no need to shoot down US fighters, it is enough to force them to take off In Xataka | Europe’s fear of an unprecedented situation in the Mediterranean: a Ukrainian drone has left a ticking bomb floating

just bombed the “Uber of shahed drones” between Russia and Iran

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Although more than 90% of world trade travels by sea, there are routes that do not even appear on common trade maps and yet concentrate all types of critical flows of goods and technology. In some of these corridors, it is enough to turn off a simple transponder to disappear from the radar and turn an ordinary journey into something much more difficult to track. And one of them directly “connects” the war in Ukraine with that in Iran. The “Uber of the shahed.” Israel has found and beaten much more than a port: it has attacked the invisible highway that connected two apparently separate wars, that of Ukraine and the Middle East. As? For months, the Caspian Sea functioned as a discreet runner where Russia and Iran exchanged Shahed drones, ammunition and technology far from Western reach, a true “Uber of the Shahed” that moved weapons silently while the ships they turned off their transponders. This logistical system allowed the same drones that fell on kyiv or Kharkiv to also fuel attacks in the Gulf, and its partial destruction It not only aims to disrupt supplies, but also reveals the extent to which both conflicts are intertwined. A key route for two simultaneous wars. Because the Caspian corridor was not a secondary route, but a centerpiece of the Russian and Iranian military equipment, used to transport hundreds of thousands of projectiles and millions of ammunition, in addition to drones that both countries they already produce jointly. They remembered in the Wall Street Journal that Russia depended on this route to sustain its war effort in Ukraine, while Iran used it to project power in the Middle East, turning maritime traffic between Bandar Anzali and Russian ports into a critical logistics artery. Its hybrid nature, mixing civil commerce with military shipments, made its detection and blocking even more difficult. Technological and total war partners. I was counting this morning the financial times that the relationship between Moscow and Tehran has evolved from one-off cooperation to integration ever deeperone in which Russia provides intelligence, satellite images and technological improvements, while Iran provides expertise in cheap drones and mass production. However, that relationship is no longer one-way: Russia has perfected the Shahed in Ukraine (improving navigation, payload and jam resistance) and is now in a position to return Iran vmore advanced versionscapable of increasing the effectiveness of their attacks or serving as a basis for new generations of weapons. The Israeli coup and its effect. Apparently the attack against Bandar Anzali It has destroyed key infrastructure, from ships to command and maintenance centers, with the explicit aim of demonstrating that not even the Caspian is a safe space for Iran. Beyond the physical damage, the operation also seeks to disorganize temporarily the flow of weapons and send a strategic message: Israel can reach critical logistical nodes even in areas considered outside of direct conflict. Plus: By affecting a route that also transports civilian goods such as wheat or energy, the coup places additional pressure on Iranian internal stability. A system also vulnerable. Despite the impact, neither Russia nor Iran depend on a single path, and it is likely that redirect your shipments to other ports or routes, maintaining the flow, although with greater costs and delays. That said, the attack has exposed a structural weaknessThere is no doubt: the need to maintain discreet but concentrated logistics corridors, susceptible to being identified and hit. Put another way, modern war is not only fought on the front lines, but in these invisible networks that sustain production and supply. Strategic message. If you also want, what has happened in the Caspian redefines the map of the conflict, because it shows that wars are no longer a kind of watertight compartments, but rather interconnected systems where a logistics chain can feed multiple fronts. By bombing this route, Israel has not only hit Iran, but also indirectly the russian military machinery in Ukraine, showing that the battle for drones (and the chains that transport them) is a global conflict. From that prism, the “Uber of the Shahed” was not just another route: it was the symbol of a new form of war, one that is now also a priority objective. Image | Alma, Wikimedia, Kyiv City State Administration In Xataka | Drones and ballistic missiles have revolutionized warfare. Iran suspects there is another weapon: rain theft In Xataka | Iran has sent a message with a ballistic missile 4,000 km away: Europe is within reach, including Spain

This is how Russia has become the great winner of the Hormuz crisis

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On Thursday evening, March 12, the Swedish Coast Guard boarded the tanker Sea Owl I south of Trelleborg, off the coast of Sweden. The next day, the authorities They arrested their captainof Russian nationality, and on Sunday a court ordered his formal arrest for using allegedly false documents to operate the ship. This 228-meter-long ship sails under suspicion of using a false flag, in this case from Comoros, and is on the European Union sanctions list. As explained The Moscow TimesAlthough the ship, which set sail from Brazil, claimed to be heading to Estonia, the Swedish Coast Guard believes its actual destination was the Russian port of Primorsk. This is one more link in the “shadow fleet” that Moscow uses to evade sanctions. In fact, just a few days before, Sweden had seized another ship, the cargo ship Caffasuspected of transporting stolen Ukrainian grain. A lethal bottleneck. But while the West tightens the noose in the icy Baltic, the true collapse looms in the south. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, turned into an impassable “digital fog” by the war between the United States, Israel and Iran, has suffocated the world energy market. According to The New York TimesIndia—highly dependent on imports from the Middle East—had been in agony for months after Donald Trump’s administration imposed punitive tariffs to force it to stop buying Russian crude. Without quick access to crude oil from the Persian Gulf and with the US ban on Moscow, the Asian giant was looking into the abyss. Indian state refineries were forced to close entire processing units due to the simple physical shortage of oil. Washington’s retreat. Faced with Iran’s direct threat to shoot up the barrel of Brent at 200 dollarsthe United States has had no choice but to give in. The US Treasury Department has issued a temporary emergency waiver. This license, valid for 30 days, allows India and other countries to buy Russian oil stranded at sea. Although Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent justified the measure by stating that it seeks to stabilize world prices and that it will not bring “significant financial benefits” to the Kremlin, the reality of the markets dictates a very different ruling. Russia makes money (and legally). Indeed, the main beneficiary of this crisis is the Kremlin, and it is also doing so completely legally in the eyes of Washington. According to data from Argus Media collected by Bloomberg, Prices for Russian Ural crude oil delivered to India’s west coast have hit a record high of $98.93 per barrel. This historic rebound has occurred precisely after the United States expanded its permission to buy Russian crude oil in the midst of the upward spiral caused by the war in the Middle East. The humiliating discount that Russia was forced to apply has vanished, reducing it to just $4.80 per barrel compared to the global Brent index. At the diplomatic level, Moscow also gains muscle. According to the Anadolu Agencythe foreign ministers of Russia and India are already talking to use alternative forums to the West, such as the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), to mediate the de-escalation of the Middle East. The great irony of international sanctions. On the one hand, Sweden spends police resources raiding Russian ghost ships in the frigid Baltic Sea. On the other hand, offices in Washington are forced to urgently legalize the purchase of crude oil from Moscow to avoid the economic collapse of India and a global recession. In the end, geopolitics always ends up surrendering to the laws of thermodynamics and infrastructure: the world needs physical energy and, faced with the closure of Hormuz, the West has had to swallow and pay in gold price for the oil of the same country it was trying to suffocate. Image | Photo by Kelly Sikkema on Unsplash Xataka | The big winner of the Hormuz blockade is the country that the West has tried to suffocate for years: Russia

Europe has found a hole that has been sending sensitive material to Russia for years: a “Mercadona” from Germany

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More than 400 billion packages circulate around the world every year, and the international postal system is designed to move them as quickly as possible. To achieve this, many shipments cross borders with simplified controls and risk-based reviews, not full inspections. That logistical efficiency, designed to speed up commerce and everyday correspondence, sometimes generates unexpected cracks in much larger systems. An unexpected hole. Since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the European Union has lifted one of the sanctions regimes wider of its history with the aim of economically isolating Russia and hindering access to technology that can feed his military machine. Advanced electronics, sensitive components or certain industrial equipment are theoretically blocked to prevent them from reinforcing the Kremlin’s war economy. However, the practical application of these restrictions faces a constant problem: the more complex the sanctions system, the more ingenious They become the routes to avoid it. And in this case the weak point has appeared in a place so everyday that it is difficult to believe. A clandestine channel in the supermarket. The story was told in a report in Politico. Apparently, in several Russian chain supermarkets throughout Germany, among shelves of sweets or freezers, advertisements have appeared that promote a logistics service specialized in sending packages from Germany directly to Russia. What at first glance seems like a postal service for the Russian diaspora has become an unexpected crack within the European sanctions system. Customers may drop off boxes that supposedly contain clothing, books or small personal items. No one inspects the contents and, for a few euros per kilo, the package begins a journey that ends in Moscow or St. Petersburg. In this apparently innocent flow, even sensitive electronic components whose export is prohibited. The inherited logistics network. The middle counted that behind this circuit is LS Logistics Solution GmbH, a German company created by former employees by RusPostthe subsidiary that the Russian state postal service had established in Germany before sanctions forced it to close. After the invasion of Ukraine, that structure did not completely disappear. It was reorganized under a new namekept part of its staff and continued to operate from Germany with a similar system. The result is a kind of parallel postal network that collects packages throughout Europe and concentrates them in a warehouse near the Berlin airport, from where shipments to Russia are organized. The seal trick. The key to the system is an apparently bureaucratic detail. The packages do not have labels from the Russian Post, but from the state postal service of uzbekistan. Since that country is not subject to European sanctions, the shipment can take advantage of special rules that protect international postal traffic. In practice, this means that packets move with lighter controls than traditional commercial shipments. This administrative difference, designed to facilitate mail between citizens, becomes a back door for sensitive goods to cross borders without raising too many suspicions. A kilometer trip through Europe. The route of the packages illustrates chow it works the system. After being picked up from supermarkets or delivery points, they spend a day or two in Germany before moving to a large logistics warehouse near Berlin airport. From there they are loaded onto trucks that cross Poland on the A2 highway and continue to Belarus. Even though this country is also sanctioned for its support to Moscow, the packages continue to advance thanks to your status international postal mail. After traveling more than 2,000 km, they end up arriving at addresses in Moscow or Saint Petersburg. The problem of sanctions. Plus: the episode also reflects a challenge that those who design economic sanctions are well aware of. Officially blocking trade is relatively simple, but preventing alternative routes appear It is much more complicated, and that is already we have told it in the drone war in Ukraine. Each new restriction forces the creation of more complex control systems, while those who try to circumvent them constantly search new legal cracks or logistics. The result is an endless game of adaptation in which authorities try to close holes just as new ones begin to appear. Always one step behind. They finished the report explaining that European authorities are already reviewing the case and have strengthened the rules to pursue sanctions violations. Be that as it may, the discovery of the network itself demonstrates to what extent the system can make fun. As governments design increasingly strict legal frameworks, makeshift logistics networks continue to find ways to move sensitive goods across of unexpected routes. And in this case, the blind spot that allowed this channel to Russia to be kept open was not in an industrial port or a large cargo terminal, but in something as everyday as the check-in counter. a supermarket. Image | flowcomm, RawPixel In Xataka | In 2022, the war in Ukraine sent supermarket prices soaring. Iran threatens to make it child’s play In Xataka | The EU has a perfect plan to suffocate Russia. The problem is that now it needs its oil to survive

Faced with the fear of a barrel of oil at $200, the US has made an unprecedented decision: remove sanctions on Russia

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After almost two weeks, the Iran war already has a great (and unexpected) beneficiary: the Kremlin. days after giving carte blanche to India to buy million barrels of Russian crude without fear of sanctions, yesterday Washington was one step further by lifting (partially) the sanctions imposed on the Russian oil industry after the invasion of Ukraine. With this, he hopes to alleviate the effects of the Iran war on the energy market and prevent Tehran’s threat from becoming a reality: that the barrel of Brent shoots to $200an all-time high. The question is… What will it mean for the war in Ukraine? What has happened? That the US has decided to pause the sanctions that penalize the purchase of Russian oil, a measure adopted four years ago and which seeks asphyxiate the Kremlin’s ability to finance its troops in Ukraine. The White House just published an order in which it gives the green light to the purchase of crude oil and oil products from Russia. Of course, with small print. The suspension of sanctions is temporary. It will only affect merchandise previously loaded on ships and (a priori) will be limited to one month: from March 12 to April 11. Click on the image to go to the tweet. Why do you do it? The task of announcing the measure has been the Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bressent, who a few hours ago insisted in the White House’s efforts to “promote stability” in the global energy market and above all “keep prices low” while the Iran war lasts. “To expand global supply reach, Treasury grants temporary authorization for countries to purchase Russian oil stranded at sea,” explains the high office. “This measure, which is limited in scope and short-term, applies only to oil that is already in transit.” In the same messageBressent insists that the rise in crude oil prices this week, coinciding with the escalation of tension in the Persian Gulf, is “temporary” and claims that “in the long term it will greatly benefit” the US economy. In recent days, Trump himself has tried to downplay the fluctuations in the Brent barrel. Recently he even stated that, being “the largest oil producer”, the US makes “a lot of money” when crude oil rises. Does context matter? A lot. In fact, the decision of the Treasury Department cannot be understood without taking into account several factors. The first, the escalation in the value of oil to which Bressent himself refers. The stock charts show that the cost of a barrel of Brent has skyrocketed in recent days: from marking just under 70 dollars in mid-February, it has gone above 90, with peaks that exceeded the barrier of the 100. Those fluctuations already affect to those who need to fill the car tank and threaten to go beyond transportation, infecting the shopping basket. What will happen now? The problem is not just how much oil has risen over the last two weeks. There is (very much) concern that the barrel of Brent will continue to become more expensive and, if so, by how much. The Iranian regime already has shown its ability to condition oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime passage that channels 20% of international oil, and Tehran seems willing to use ‘black gold’ as a weapon of war. On Wednesday the regime of the ayatollahs threatened to the US (and the West) with a scenario in which the Brent barrel doubles its value and shoots up to $200, shattering the all-time high of 2008, when it reached $174.5. How will it affect Russia? That’s the other big question. The order just published by the US Treasury will allow Russia to market oil for a month without its customers risking sanctions, generating a flow of cash for the Kremlin. Bressent questions in any case the scope of that injection of funds. “It will not bring significant financial benefits to the Russian government, which derives most of its energy revenue from taxes levied at the point of extraction,” defend the secretary. Is it an exceptional measure? The truth is that it is not the first ‘balloon of oxygen’ that Trump has granted to the Russian oil industry since he began his military operation in Iran. It’s been a week now temporarily relaxed its sanctions policy so that India can buy Russian oil. The measure was approved with conditions very similar to those that Washington now extends to the rest of the countries: a 30-day suspension limited to crude oil already loaded on ships. It is not the only card that the White House has tried to reduce market tension. Another, adopted hand in hand of the International Energy Agency, has been to release millions of barrels of reserves. How much will it benefit Moscow? The great unknown. The measure approved by the US is temporary and has a limited scope, but it will probably allow the Kremlin to sell its oil without having to apply significant discounts to offset the possible sanctions that its buyers faced. Recently Financial Times I calculated that Russia is already winning up to 150 million of dollars in extra income every day through the sale of oil, a plus directly related to the conflict in Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the turbulence in the Gulf and the growing interest of India and China. But will it help the Kremlin? The situation of the Russian coffers is not particularly buoyant. Its public deficit accumulated during the first two months of the year almost reaches the objective set for the entire year and there are those who question that the extra injection it will receive over the next month thanks to oil will increase its room for maneuver in Ukraine. The reason: hydrocarbons represent only a part of the income (relevant, but not decisive) on which the Kremlin depends, which after four years of war has seen how the country’s military industry is conditioning its economy. Images | … Read more

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