oil

The EU has a perfect plan to suffocate Russia. The problem is that now it needs its oil to survive

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In December 2025, we said goodbye to the year by telling Vladimir Putin a resounding da svidániya (До свида́ния). The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the Commissioner for Energy, Dan Jørgensen, pompously announced a political agreement to end Russian gas imports (both by pipeline and liquefied) by 2027. The political message was crystal clear: Europe wanted to show that it was no longer dependent on Moscow. The blackmail was over. But in its eagerness to celebrate the blackout of Russian gas, Brussels forgot a small detail: Putin’s oil still runs through the veins of Eastern Europe. And the embargo, in reality, has lasted very little. Barely three months later, physical reality has imposed itself on diplomacy. Today we find ourselves with a brutal paradox: the same European Union that designed an unprecedented economic war architecture against Moscow, and that asked its citizens to make sacrifices in the name of collective security, is now pressuring invaded Ukraine to open the tap on Russian crude oil. Deep down in the Kremlin, Putin always knew that the laws of politics rarely win against dependence on infrastructure. The epicenter of this crisis has its own name: the Druzhba pipeline (Interestingly, “friendship” in Russian). As revealed by an exclusive from Financial Timesthe EU is pressuring kyiv to allow inspection and repair of this infrastructure that transports Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia. The problem lies in a Russian attack that occurred on January 27. As detailed ReutersUkrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal confirmed that a bombing severely damaged the sensors and internal equipment of the infrastructure. The story is expanded by the CEO of Naftogaz, Sergii Koretskyi, in statements to Financial Times: The attack caused a storage tank with 75,000 cubic meters of oil to catch fire, unleashing a fire the size of a football field that took 10 days to extinguish. Ukraine claims that repairing this in the middle of war is slow and dangerous. However, Hungary and Slovakia do not buy this version. According to EuronewsPrime Ministers Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico have created a joint investigative committee, demanding immediate access to the area. Orbán has gone further, accusing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of lying and orchestrating “state terrorism” and, together with Fico, demands that an independent investigation mission be deployed on the ground to verify the damage, something that kyiv refuses for security reasons in the middle of the war. The perfect storm in the Middle East Europe is not asking Ukraine for this favor on a whim, but out of pure survival. And to understand it you have to look to the Middle East. The recent coordinated attack by the US and Israel against Iran, which culminated in the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has unleashed chaos. The Iranian response has caused a blockage de facto of the Strait of Hormuz, 20% of the world’s daily oil supply passes through this maritime funnel. The impact has been devastating: hundreds of ships are paralyzed, insurance premiums have shot up by up to 50% and the daily cost of renting a supertanker has risen by 600%. This has destroyed European plans.As analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera emphasizesEuropean sanctions have collided head-on with thermodynamics, and thermodynamics has won. With the EU’s gas reserves at 30% in mid-February, Qatar’s LNG trapped after the Hormuz blockade and the alternatives of Norway, Algeria and the US at the limit of their capacity, Europe has been left without a plan B. “The EU does not return to Russian oil because it wants to, it returns because it has no other option,” says Perera. So, are we once again dependent on Russia? For some EU countries, dependency was never cut. According to The Moscow TimesHungary and Slovakia continued to enjoy legal exemptions from European sanctions and were almost 100% dependent on the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline, receiving some 150,000 barrels per day in January. The reason is purely economic, since Russian crude oil is between 13% and 20% cheaper. Although Croatia has offered its Adria pipeline (JANAF) to ship non-Russian oil to these countries, Euronews explains that Budapest resists. Orbán considers that it is not commercially viable, demands that Croatia allow the passage of sanctioned Russian oil and defends that its energy security cannot be an “ideological” issue. Curiously, while Europe suffers from its dependence, Russia observes the crisis of its allies from afar. According to an analysis of the cnnFollowing Khamenei’s death, the Kremlin has issued strong verbal condemnations but has refused to provide real military aid to Iran. Ukrainian military analysts note that Russia even refused to “blind” Israeli radars using its bases in Syria. Moscow, bogged down in Ukraine, does not have the resources to open new fronts, demonstrating that its alliances are more transactional than strategic. The pipeline crisis has mutated into lethal financial blackmail for kyiv. As noted Financial TimesHungary has vetoed the approval of an EU aid package for Ukraine worth €90 billion (scheduled for 2026-2027). Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó made it clear: there will be no money until oil flows through the Druzhba again. In Brussels, the European Commission is looking for shortcuts. Euronews points out that complex legal options are being consideredsuch as invoking Article 327 (which prevents countries excluded from an agreement from blocking the rest) or using the withholding of defense funds (the SAFE program) to pressure Orbán, who is in the midst of an election campaign. In the midst of the crossfire, diplomacy tries to survive. Deutsche Welle reports that Zelensky remains open to negotiating an end to the war with Russia. Although the talks were scheduled for March in Abu Dhabi, the instability in the Middle East due to Iranian missiles has led the Ukrainian leader to propose moving the dialogue table to Switzerland or Turkey. The great silent winner and European weakness While the West hyperventilates, calm reigns in Asia. China foresaw this scenario and he has been shielding himself for years. During 2025, $10 billion was spent … Read more

China spent 10 billion on oil it did not need. With Hormuz blocked, the puzzle finally makes sense

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As the West panics over the possibility of the barrel break the $100 barrieran eerie calm reigns in Beijing. The Asian giant observes the crisis with the coldness of someone who has already done his homework. During the last few months, the world has been debating the excess oil supply, but the real winner of this war crisis is not firing missiles, but has been filling its storage tanks for years in the most absolute silence. World geopolitics has been blown up a few weeks before the expected summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. As reported Nikkei Asiathe coordinated airstrikes of the United States and Israel (dubbed “Operation Epic Fury“) have culminated in the assassination of the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Tehran’s response has been a rain of missiles and drones on American allies in the region. The immediate impact has been felt in the water. The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 million barrels a day flow (20% of the world’s oil supply), is blocked de facto. As detailed Bloomberg, Rates to hire a supertanker on the route from the Middle East to China have skyrocketed by 600%, reaching $200,000 a day (or 525 Worldscale points for a Suezmax). Besides, France 24 points out that insurers They have increased war risk premiums between 25% and 50%. As reported cnnBrent crude oil jumped 6.5% in the early stages, touching $82, driven by fear of prolonged logistical disruptions. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, warned the US chain that closing Hormuz would cause an immediate global energy crisis. China’s exposed vulnerability On paper, the Donald Trump administration’s offensive should be an absolute nightmare for Xi Jinping. As explained The TelegraphAmerican military adventurism is exposing the gigantic energy vulnerability of China, the largest oil importer in the world, which buys three-quarters of the crude oil it consumes abroad. Washington’s strategy seems clear: suffocate the “rebellious” suppliers that supply the Chinese industrial machinery at bargain prices. Earlier this year, the military capture of Nicolás Maduro has established what some analysts They already call the “Donroe Doctrine”. Trump has been explicit in his goal to control oil. If the United States manages to add Venezuelan production to that of Guyana and its own, it would de facto control 30% of the world’s reserves, according to JP Morgan. This movement cuts supply to China in the bud, evaporating imports that represented around 4% of its maritime purchases. according to data from Kpler collected by The Financial Review. However, Washington’s optimism collides with geology: the infrastructure is so in ruins that loading a supertanker today takes five days and the crude oil arrives so “dirty” that the Chinese and Indian refineries themselves have canceled orders, according to a Reuters investigation. Refloating this industry will cost 10 billion dollars annually for a decade, as Francisco Monaldi calculatesdirector of energy policy at Rice University. For its part, the current blow to Iran. From Chosun Daily details that China bought 80% of Iranian maritime exports last year (about 1.38 million barrels per day), which represents 13.4% of Beijing’s total maritime crude oil imports. As he points out Institute for Energy Research (IER) United States, cited by the same mediumChina has used the heavily sanctioned and cheap oil from these countries to cement its manufacturing competitiveness. Losing Iran and Venezuela would force Chinese refiners — especially the independent ones in Shandong, known as “teapots” — to look for much more expensive substitutes on the open market, threatening to import inflation and slow their economic growth. The master plan in execution If Western analysts expected to see China cornered, they were wrong. Beijing foresaw this scenario of isolation and has been executing a four-pronged master plan for years that today allows it to cushion the blow of Hormuz. While in 2025 the world feared a global oversupply, China dedicated itself to massive purchasing. Last year, China spent $10 billion buying an extra 150 million barrels that it didn’t immediately need, absorbing more than 90% of crude oil storage measurable globally. Supported by a new Energy Law that obliges the public and private sector to maintain reserves, Beijing today has strategic reserves equivalent to at least 96 days of imports, according to The Telegraph. Under the banner of national security, China is investing $80 billion annually in its state oil fields. In March 2025 they reached a production peak of 4.6 million barrels per day and they completed the drilling of the deepest oil well in Asia (10,910 meters). Its goal is not financial profitability, but pure autonomy. With Iran and Venezuela under fire, China has simply turned its head toward Russia and Saudi Arabia. According to oil price, Chinese refineries are absorbing record amounts of Russian crude oil (more than 2 million barrels per day in February 2026), taking advantage of the fact that India has given in to pressure from the US to stop buying from Moscow. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia has cut the official price of its crude oil Arab Light to five-year lows to gain market share in Asia, which has led China to order between 56 and 57 million Saudi barrels by March. China’s definitive move is to abandon the oil board. As analyzed by Professor Hussein Dia in The ConversationChina’s massive commitment to electric vehicles (50% of new car sales last year) and renewable energy is a national security policy. How they collect in The Telegraph, The new five-year plan (2026-2030) seeks to peak oil consumption by accelerating the installation of solar and wind parks (430 gigawatts added last year alone). Unlike the ships in Hormuz, sunlight cannot be blocked by the US Fifth Fleet. The diplomacy of silence and the illusion of OPEC+ In the face of Khamenei’s assassination, the response of the Chinese Foreign Ministry has been one of calculated coldness. They condemned the act as “unacceptable” and a “violation of sovereignty,” but, as pointed out Chosun Dailythey carefully avoided directly mentioning Donald Trump. From Nikkei Asia explains this pragmatism: … Read more

Iran has put the price of oil at stake by attacking it with drones

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The world stage is Monday, a Monday marked by Iran bombing by the United States and Israel last Saturday. Iran has not sat idly byresponding with something it has already used in the past: suicide drones to attack bases of the allies of the aggressor countries. They have attacked Dubaibut also Saudi Arabia, causing the closure of one of the key refineries globally: Ras Tanura. And the result is -another- earthquake in the world market. In short. A few hours ago, Saudi Arabia and Aramco (the oil company) made the decision to stop production at the refinery Ras Tanura. The decision came when Saudi defenses intercepted several remains of Iranian drones. They did not impact, but their remains have caused some fires within the storage facilities of the power plant. Ras Tanura. We are talking about some of the largest refineries in the world, with an estimated capacity of about 550,000 barrels per day. Its closure implies that the export operations associated with the complex stop, which is addition to the closure of other energy infrastructures in the region, such as gas infrastructure in Israel and Kurdistan. As pointed out Bloombergthe problem is that Ras Tanura is one of the key refineries in the transportation fuel segment, specifically diesel, and not only have operations stopped, but very close is one of Aramco’s largest export terminals for refined products. This is the Strait of Hormuz, with dozens of ships waiting Hormuz. Uncertainty and military operations are once again causing the Strait of Hormuz to become abuzz. Hormuz is, after Malacca, the second largest oil corridor in the worldand a disturbance in normal functioning causes the entire chain to wobble. Uncertainty is causing a monumental bottleneck with ships stopped on both sides of the strait, waits that do not know when they will end, rescheduling, diversions to other ports and, ultimately, chaos in oil transportation. Impact. And you can already guess how the market is responding. Crude oil is one of the economic thermometers today, and the initial reaction has been as expected: a strong rise in prices. The barrel has risen around 10% in some markets after learning of the closure of the refinery, but it is already estimated that they could rise more than 20% if the situation continues and the strait closes. How much? Well, it is currently around $80, more than $100, according to some analysts, and it depends on how long the situation lasts that we begin to see how this price increase affects the fuel market. Vital. It is not the first time that refineries in the area have been attacked. They have become essential enclaves in the country’s economy, but also in global geopolitics. As pointed out Reuterssuch an attack is not just another military action, “it marks a significant escalation in violence.” It implies that Iran has the Gulf’s energy infrastructure in its sights because it knows its importance to the economy of the entire globe. And, evidently, an attack on its plants could cause Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors to join the US and Israeli military operations against Iran. Now, Iran has also been ‘touched’ by that basic infrastructure for its economy. The country is the third largest producer in OPEC and on February 28, explosions were reported on the island of Kharg, where process 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports. In the end, it is one more example of the domino effect and the fragile nature of the supply chain for a basic good. It’s just a part of a perfect storm whose consequences are far from reaching their ceiling. Images | MarineTrafficUS Army, VALGO In xataka | Europe believed it had won the gas war against Russia. Now it faces a much more uncomfortable reality: its dependence on the United States.

Russia set up a secret network to sell 90 billion in oil. It has fallen due to using the same mail server

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In the geopolitical chess of international sanctions, where Western governments design complex legislation to suffocate Vladimir Putin’s war machine, sometimes checkmate comes not from a brilliant diplomatic maneuver, but from corporate stinginess. An entire global smuggling network, designed to the millimeter to be invisible to the eyes of Washington and Brussels, has fallen like a house of cards for not wanting to pay separate email bills. A simple saving in computer infrastructure has exposed a monumental flow of black money. a colossal IT blunder (a huge computer error) has brought to light a smuggling network that has moved at least $90 billion worth of Russian oil. As revealed by extensive research of the Finance Timesthis plot is mainly responsible for financing the Kremlin in its war against Ukraine. The British media has identified a network of 48 companies which, on paper, operated completely independently from different physical addresses. However, in practice, they acted in unison to disguise the origin of the crude oil, especially that of Rosneft, the Russian state-controlled oil company. The need to hide these exports became life or death for the Kremlin in October 2025, when the United States imposed direct sanctions to Rosneft and Lukoil. From that moment on, a previously unknown company called Redwood Global Supply was suddenly crowned as the largest exporter of Russian crude oil in the world. This firm, along with the rest of the network, is linked to a group of businessmen of Azerbaijani origin with privileged access to the leadership of Rosneft, led by figures such as Tahir Garayev and Etibar Eyyub. The independent Russian media The Moscow Times has been echoed of this discovery, highlighting a devastating fact: in November 2024, more than 80% of Rosneft’s maritime exports They moved through this network. Sergey Vakulenko, former head of strategy at Gazprom Neft and current researcher at the Carnegie Center, explained to this medium that using fifty shell companies is “an old trick from the 90s” to evade taxes, but he confesses his surprise at the fact that a single network has become so immensely crucial for a giant like Rosneft. The triumph of shadow intermediaries The existence of this network means, quite simply, that the Western sanctions system is full of holes and that Russia has managed to industrialize evasion. According to the investigationthe success of this $90 billion network was based on strict separation of roles to erase the money trail. The network used a group of shell companies exclusively to buy crude oil shipments in Russia, and another group of companies, totally different on paper, to sell them in key markets such as India or China. In this way, the initial buyer and the final seller almost never coincided in customs documents. Furthermore, in most cases, the crude oil was labeled under generic names such as “export mix”, which destroyed any possibility of tracing its origin or checking whether the price cap imposed by the G7 was being respected. As we already explained at the time in Xatakathis modus operandi It is not new and it relies on an architecture of evasion that has been brewing for years in places like the United Arab Emirates. Something very similar happened with the case of Christopher Eppinger, a young trader German that perfectly illustrates how this underworld works. As we detailed in our report, while Europe boasted of energy sovereignty, an army of new intermediaries moved to Dubai—a jurisdiction that does not apply sanctions to Moscow—to make gold. The network now discovered by the British media uses exactly the same tools that we already analyzed: the express creation of opaque companies, the use of the “ghost fleet” (aging ships that turn off their transponders when approaching to load Russian crude oil) and transfers of oil on the high seas to mix it and falsify its origin. The only difference is that the Rosneft network uncovered by the FT was operating on an unprecedented industrial scale… Until they made a rookie mistake on the internet. The rookie mistake This entire sophisticated international network collapsed due to an absurd detail that borders on comedy. He Finance Times discovered that these 48 multi-billion dollar companies shared a single private server for their emails: mx.phoenixtrading.ltd By pulling this digital thread, the journalists of the FT they managed to identify 442 web domains who shared administrative functions of back office on that same server. The next step was pure data mining: they compared the names of those domains with the customs records of Russia and India. Thus, they discovered that the domain foxton-fzco.com It corresponded to Foxton FZCO (based in Dubai), buyer of $5.6 billion in oil; and? advanalliance.ltd It was Advan Alliance, which sold 1.5 billion to India. The desire to create and destroy companies quickly to mislead sanctioners—according to The Moscow Timesthe average lifespan of these signatures is only six months—led the network to centralize your IT infrastructure to reduce costs. A saving that has cost them their anonymity. The show must go on In the short term, the strategy of those involved is denial and adaptation. How to collect Finance Timesboth Tahir Garayev and Etibar Eyyub have categorically denied their involvement in sanctions evasion, calling the accusations “baseless” (curiously, Eyyub sent his denial from an email address hosted on the compromised server). The original company that founded the network, Coral Energy (now 2Rivers), has also disengaged from operations. However, behind the scenes, the machinery is already looking for new avenues. A senior Russian energy executive, speaking on condition of anonymity, summed up the situation in the investigation starkly: “It creates additional costs and inconveniences. But at the end of the day, the show must go on.” The United Kingdom has already reacted to the investigation of the British media, sanctioning nearly 300 entities linked to this “dark web”, blocking Russian ships and banks. The fall of this immense $90 billion network shows that, in the 21st century, bank secrecy and flags of convenience are useless if the system administrator decides … Read more

the increase in abandoned oil tankers

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Abandoning an oil tanker or other commercial vessel has gone from being something rare to becoming a dangerous trend: in 2025 alone there are 410 vessels registered, an abysmal difference compared to the 20 cases in 2016, according to data from the International Transport Workers Federation (ITF), a global trade union organization that tracks these incidents. What is causing this rebound? The first affected: the crew. An abandoned oil tanker does not only mean neglecting the vessel itself, but also more than 6,000 sailors abandoned to their fate, according to ITF global figures. The most affected are Indian sailors, with more than a thousand people affected representing the majority of the total. One case is that of Iván (not his real name), the chief deck officer of an oil tanker that has been abandoned for weeks outside the territorial waters of China, which recently declared for the BBC how this event has affected their health and the environment: “We had a shortage of meat, cereals, fish, basic things to survive.” And that’s not to mention the uncertainty of seeing the Chinese coast and not knowing if you’ll be able to set foot on it. The context: the ghost fleets. Over the last few months we have heard about “ghost ships” or “zombie ships”, that is, ships that legally barely exist, with owners hiding behind front companies. The objective is to operate outside the official financial and regulatory framework to evade sanctions through “prohibited” routes such as Iran, Russia or Venezuela. The Ukrainian War and the context of sanctions have created a B market for old ships that transport oil. The ideal candidates to become ghost banks are aging vessels, generally oil tankers that are around two decades old, a critical age at which the vessel is already headed for scrapping, which makes it easier for them to move into that clandestine scenario. Whoever buys it is not going to invest in long-term maintenance, he wants to pay it off quickly by transporting sanctioned crude oil. These types of boats lack complete insurance such as P&I Clubsso that in the event of any problem, the shipowner disappears before assuming repair or repatriation costs. The legal trap of rental flags. Here the “flags of convenience“, something like the tax haven of the seas. This is what happens when a shipowner registers his ship in a country other than his own to benefit from more lax regulations. There is a legal disconnection between the real ownership of the ship and the state that gives it the flag. And what does it have to do with abandoned oil tankers? According to the ITF82% of abandonments occur on ships that operate under flags of convenience. Among the states with flags of convenience are Panama, Liberia and the Marshall Islands, which represent 46.5% of all merchant ships. But there is one country that deserves a special mention: Gambia. In 2023 it went from having no ships to having 35 sailing under its flag, a record time to create that infrastructure organically. In addition to softer legislation, many of these countries outsource inspections to private organizations and lack sufficient technical personnel to verify it afterwards, such as notes the International Maritime Organization in several reports. Prisons and floating time bombs. Ivan’s is just one case, but what an example: The ship is carrying almost 750,000 barrels of Russian oil that has a nominal value of about 50 million dollars (42 million euros). He left the Russian Far East for China at the beginning of November 2025 and there he is, at the gates of his destination and unable to enter. It is so that the alarms go off due to the environmental risk posed by a possible spill from an abandoned ship without responsibility. Furthermore, the safety of the vessel is compromised, as human error accounts for more than 80% of maritime accidents and these sailors are not exactly at their best. Fortunately, the ITF took charge of the situation in December, providing payroll arrears up to this point, providing groceries and other essentials, and planning repatriation. It is not an isolated problem. The drastic increase in abandoned oil tankers represents not only a violation of international sanctions and regulations, but also a human drama and potential environmental disaster for which there would be no legal responsibility to cover it. Although it is true that there are interventions and approaches and that there are states putting pressure on those countries that are banners of flags of convenience like Gambia and achieving something in the attemptthe reality is that this is a global phenomenon that requires stricter international regulation, serve as an example India’s blacklistwhich included 86 foreign ships in a database for abandonment of sailors and violation of their rights. In Xataka | Fewer and fewer oil tankers are being scrapped, and there is only one reasonable explanation: Russia’s ghost fleet In Xataka | The ships of the oil “ghost fleet” turn off their GPS to avoid being detected. Malaysia is going to hunt them with drones Cover | Jack Dong

The island has so little oil that foreign airlines will not be able to refuel

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There is no fuel. A message as simple as it is terrible. It is the one that the Government of Cuba has sent to foreign airlines. This is what the news agency claims EFEfrom where they point out that none of the island’s airports will be able to refuel planes arriving from abroad. JET A1 FUEL NOT AVBL. That is the message that appeared yesterday in the database of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the United States. “A1 jet fuel not available” is what that message means. It arrived, they assure EFEin a Notam message, one designed to alert pilots and air traffic controllers of a dangerous and unexpected situation. The fuel deficit is confirmation of the problems that the island is having in supplying itself. Without Venezuela supporting and Mexico in clear retreat, the Cuban Government has an almost impossible mission to replenish the 70,000 barrels of oil per day who have stopped coming to the island. And now? The big question is how airlines are going to operate in order to maintain their operations, as far as possible, within normality. The simplest thing, obviously, is to refuel with enough fuel near the island to be able to leave it without impediments. The situation It is not new for airlines who have had to play with restrictions of this type before. The biggest problem is with long-haul direct flights to the island (those in which you have to cross the ocean) because they would have no choice but to stop in countries in the area such as the United States, Mexico or the Dominican Republic, among others. In Xataka We have contacted Iberia. When we write these lines we have not received an answer as to whether they already have an alternative plan on the table. More pressure. The lack of fuel is, as we said, a direct consequence of the strangulation that the United States is carrying out on the country through pressure on countries that until now supplied crude oil to Cuba. Since US special forces will take away by force To Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela is not supplying barrels to a country that, until now, had an oxygen cylinder in its ally. days later, Donald Trump already announced in their own social network that no more oil or money would reach Cuba, in a clear movement to continue suffocating the Cuban regime. These statements referred to oil that arrived from Venezuela But over time we have learned that Mexican oil has not been reaching the Cuban coasts either. In total, it is estimated that it has represented a deficit of 70,000 barrels per day of the 110,000 barrels that Cuba needs to function with a certain normality. Now, this shortage is being felt in air traffic but for a long time people have been living on the streets with Regular power outages that can last more than a day. Humanitarian aid? In its pressure to prevent more oil from reaching Cuba, the United States focused on Mexico. As confirmed France 24a few days after the overthrow of Nicolás Maduro the last successful shipment from Mexico to Cuba occurred. The freighter that was to take over in mid-January never left the port. Claudia Sheinbaum, president of Mexico, has defended her ability to decide whether to “sell or give” crude oil to Cuba. That “da” makes all the sense in the world because, supposedly, since 2024, Mexicans have been delivering oil to Cuba as “humanitarian aid” but according to Pemex accounts Oil worth almost 500 million dollars was sold to Cuba in 2025 and the figure rises to over 1.4 billion euros if the accounts are backdated to 2023. And the company’s own directors have confirmed that they are being paid daily. The question is whether or not Mexico has actually been sending barrels to Cuba as “humanitarian aid.” And it is that chow we count on XatakaWhile the oil business has very tight accounts, the supposed humanitarian shipments are very opaque. Shipments that the United States threatens to collect for itself with more tariffs on countries that help Cuba in managing this crisis. We have already seen this. With Venezuela out of the game, Mexico was supposed to be Cuba’s energy lifeline. Without the entry of oil from abroad, the Cuban Government faces suffocation. The current situation forces the same rationing that was already experienced in the so-called Special Periodwhen the island faced the collapse of the Soviet Union, which was then its safeguard against the American blockade. “How do we farm our land? How do we get around? How do we keep our children in class without fuel? We are going to take measures that, while not permanent, will require effort. What else can we do? Are we going to give up? There is so much to defend,” Miguel Díaz-Canel, president of Cuba, stated just a few days ago. In his speech, Díaz-Canel also sent the message to the United States that they were willing to negotiate: “Cuba is willing to have a dialogue with the United States on any of the issues that we want to debate or discuss.” Less than a week later, the island is experiencing one of the most complicated energy situations in decades. Photo | Tacorontey and Edward Galitsky In Xataka | For the first time, electrified cars are outselling gasoline cars. It is the beginning of the inevitable

The ships of the oil “ghost fleet” turn off their GPS to avoid being detected. Malaysia is going to hunt them with drones

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In the crystal clear waters of Southeast Asia, where the Strait of Malacca meets the South China Sea, a war is being fought that does not appear in conventional military reports. There are no trenches, but there are rusty helmets that turn off their GPS signal to disappear from international radars. This is the kingdom of the “ghost fleet”, an ecosystem of lawless ships that, according to the latest researchhas found its safe harbor in Malaysia, doubling its activity in just twelve months. However, the time for impunity appears to be running out: from the use of artificial intelligence to the deployment of naval drones, technology is beginning to illuminate the darkest corners of the ocean. The black market boom. The situation on the east coast of Malaysia has ceased to be an open secret and has become a global security problem. According to the specialized media Seatrade Maritime“ship-to-ship” (STS) oil transfers have recently doubled, going from just seven weekly operations to peaks of fifteen in just one year. This increase responds to an infrastructure designed to circumvent the sanctions imposed on Russia, Iran and Venezuela, using Malaysian waters as a gigantic clandestine service station before the crude oil continues on its way, mainly to China. Analyst Charlie Brown, of the organization UANIhas managed to capture a disturbing reality through satellite images and direct photos. In mid-January 2026, some 60 vessels linked to Iranian oil and another 30 with Russian and Venezuelan cargoes were waiting at anchor in Malaysia’s Exclusive Economic Zone. These ships not only operate outside the law, but they do so under deplorable technical conditions. Images distributed by UANI show tankers with false names broadbrushed on their hulls and flags of convenience hidden under tarps to deceive authorities. The metamorphosis of the threat. What began as a purely economic strategy to keep Moscow’s revenue flowing has mutated into something far more dangerous for European security. As the chronicles of my colleague Miguel Jorge relate in XatakaRussia has converted part of this fleet into covert hybrid warfare platforms. It’s not just about moving barrels; Now these ships incorporate “technicians” who, under a civilian guise, are usually special forces veterans or mercenaries linked to the Wagner group. These agents wield authority that often exceeds that of the ship’s captain and have been accused of photographing military installations and monitoring underwater cables in EU and NATO waters. An example of this tension was experienced with the oil tanker Boracaywhich after embarking Russian technicians in the Baltic, was intercepted by the French navy off Brittany after suspicious drones were detected flying over critical infrastructure in Copenhagen. The ghost fleet is today, in essence, an extension of the Kremlin’s security apparatus sailing with impunity under the flags of countries like Gabon or Gambia. A new fragmented energy order. From the academic level, the Elcano Royal Institute’s analysis highlights that this phenomenon is the symptom of a “deglobalization” of the gas and oil market. In your reportresearcher Gonzalo Escribano explains that international value chains, previously based on efficiency and transparency, are being replaced by “geoeconometrically armored” circuits. Europe finds itself at a crossroads: although it seeks to disassociate itself from Russian energy, the persistence of these black markets complicates strategic autonomy. This fragmentation has even reached the LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) market. According to Bloombergsanctioned Russian gas transfers have been documented in Malaysian waters, a technically much more complex operation than crude oil. The ship Pearlmanaged by an opaque company based in a Dubai hotel, is the face of this new network that desperately seeks buyers in Asia for the gas that Europe no longer wants. The technological response: AI and drones to the rescue. Faced with a fleet that “turns off” the real world by hacking GPS signals (spoofing) and the shutdown of transponders, the response is being purely technological. The middle CNBC highlights thatof the ships loaded with Iranian crude in 2025, 96% made dark transfers and 77% falsified their location. To combat this “blackout”, Ukraine has shown the way with an innovation that has made conventional fleets obsolete: the use of artificial intelligence in naval drones. The drones Be Baby have multiplied its capabilities thanks to AI, allowing precision attacks from thousands of kilometers away. In a recent operation near the Turkish coast, these drones hit Russian ghost fleet tankers, specifically targeting their rudders and propulsion systems. The objective is not to sink them, which would cause an ecological disaster of catastrophic dimensions, but to render them useless and turn them into an unbearable economic burden for those who operate them. This “precision offensive” is forcing insurers and shipping companies to reconsider the risk of collaborating with Moscow, raising the costs of war for the Kremlin. The dilemma of safety and the environment. The proliferation of elderly ships, without liability insurance and with dubious maintenance, is an environmental time bomb. Lars Barstad, CEO of the operator Frontline, warned in the Financial Times that organizations such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) appear to be “sleeping at the wheel”. Barstad notes that it is only a matter of time before a major disaster occurs, as these ships operate outside of any regulatory framework. Meanwhile, diplomatic pressure increases. The US has begun a campaign of aggressive seizures, such as that of the ship Sailor (before Bella 1), which was boarded by the US Coast Guard in North Atlantic waters after a chase from the Caribbean. This “gunboat diplomacy” of the 21st century, analyzed by the Atlantic Councilposes immense legal challenges: once a steel giant full of crude oil is seized, the maintenance and storage costs are astronomical. The end of the shadow. The current geopolitical dashboard report shows that Malaysia, Spain or the waters of the Caribbean are just scenes of a larger battle for visibility. The ghost fleet survives in the shadow of legal ambiguity, but the advance of artificial intelligence and constant satellite monitoring are tightening the fence. As the analysis concludes from my partnerthis is not a frontal … Read more

Mexico was supposed to be giving oil to Cuba out of “humanity.” Now we know that he was charging millions

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On the coast of Veracruz, Mexico’s diplomatic and energy machinery has applied the handbrake. The image of the ship Ocean Marinerdocking in Havana on January 9 with 85,000 barrels of crude oil, seems to be the last postcard of an era that is abruptly closing. As confirmed France 24that was the last successful shipment before geopolitics cut off the flow. His replacement, Swift Galaxywas scheduled to sail in mid-January, but his trip was quietly canceled and he disappeared from the logistical calendar of Mexican Petroleum, how they have advanced in The Country. What happens in Mexican ports is the reflection of a tension that goes beyond commercial matters. After the American intervention in Venezuela on January 3 and the fall of Nicolás Maduro, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, was blunt: “No more money or oil will reach Cuba. Zero.” The threat was accompanied by an executive order that promises tariffs on any nation that supplies crude oil to the island, which Trump has described as a “failed nation.” Caught in this crossfire, Claudia Sheinbaum’s government navigates between two waters. On the one hand, it defends the “sovereignty” of helping a sister nation; On the other hand, in the Washington offices, their own accounting books tell another story: formal businesses and punctual payments that refute the purely humanitarian narrative. Solidarity after the storm From the National Palace, the speech has tried to avoid direct confrontation appealing to history. President Sheinbaum has reiterated that Mexico, faithful to its diplomatic tradition of voting against the blockade from day one, has the sovereign power to decide whether to “sell or give” oil to Cuba. This rhetoric gained strength at the end of 2024. After the collapse of the Cuban electrical system and the devastating passage of Hurricane Rafael in November, the Mexican government started labeling their shipments under the umbrella of “humanitarian aid.” However, here the enigma arises. Although the president assures that there is a humanitarian donation channel other than the commercial one, her administration has not offered specific figures on how many barrels are given away and how many are charged. Everything is opacity in the help, while the business has lights and stenographers, as highlighted The Country. While the political discourse focuses on solidarity, the financial documents are cold and exact. Pemex, which is listed on international markets, cannot afford ambiguities before the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to the information delivered to this regulatory body, the Mexican oil company maintains a current contract with the Cuban government since July 2023 through its subsidiary Wellbeing Gasoline. Far from being a hidden charity, the figures revealed by the director of Pemex, Víctor Rodríguez Padilla, show an active and lucrative commercial relationship. In 2025, Mexico sold oil to Cuba worth 496 million dollars. If we add what has been invoiced since the start of the contract in 2023, the total figure amounts to about 1.4 billion dollars. Rodríguez Padilla was emphatic in denying that Cuba does not pay its debts, a common perception given the island’s crisis. “Of course they pay us! We have a business relationship too. They are very formal in their payments,” the manager assuredclarifying that there are no overdue invoices. To try to minimize the impact of these revelations before the scrutinizing eyes of Washington, Pemex has argued thatAlthough the figures sound high, they are marginal for the company: they represent less than 1% of its crude oil production and just 0.1% of its oil sales. It is an “open” contract that depends on Mexico’s availability, and not an unbreakable commitment. The domino effect: why the tap was turned off The current crisis is not explained only by Mexico’s decisions, but by the collapse of Havana’s historical suppliers. For years, Venezuela was the island’s lifeline, shipping up to 100,000 barrels a day during the time of Hugo Chávez. However, after the capture of Nicolás Maduro and the US intervention in Caracas, these shipments ceased completely in January. as detailed BBC. Mexico then became the last lifeline, sending approximately 20,000 barrels a day, a figure that, although far from the island’s total needs, was essential. to maintain minimum services. The pressure escalated when Republican congressmen, such as Carlos Giménez, put the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) on the table. The threat it was clear: If Mexico continues to oxygenate the Cuban regime, the review of the trade agreement in 2026 could become a nightmare for the Mexican economy. Faced with the risk of tariffs that would damage its own economy, Mexico chose to suspend hydrocarbon shipments. The consequences of this supply cut are immediate and alarming. A graph made with data from Kpler and published by the Financial Times illustrates the seriousness of the moment: Cuba’s crude oil imports have plummeted and, according to the estimates displayed in the report, the island only has oil reserves left for between 15 and 20 days. The situation has raised alarm bells at the United Nations. The Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, he warned through his spokesperson that Cuba is at risk of imminent “humanitarian collapse” if its energy needs are not met. Without fuel, not only do the lights go out; The pumping of drinking water, the transportation of food and the operation of hospitals are stopped. Faced with the impossibility of shipping oil without suffering commercial reprisals, the Sheinbaum government has modified its relief strategy. The president confirmed that, while the Foreign Ministry seeks “diplomatic ways” to resolve the oil issue, Mexico will ship this week shipments of food and basic products managed by the Secretary of the Navy. It is a palliative for a crisis that is, above all, energy. In this maximum pressure scenario, an unexpected edge arises. As Trump closes the oil fence, he has also dropped comments that suggest the door is not completely closed. The American president recently stated that “we are negotiating with Cuban leaders right now,” hinting at conversations about immigration issues and the … Read more

Saudi Arabia already knows the real price of Neom and it is not measured in billions, but in barrels of oil at $90

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Saudi Arabia is mired in a paradox that revolves around barrels of oil. Years ago the kingdom launched an ambitious program to reduce its dependence on ‘black gold’, a key element in its accounts and public treasury. Under the name of ‘Vision 2030’ basically proposed to diversify its economy with a rosary of projects which included large urban developments such as Oxagon, Trojena or the famous The Line. The problem is that the swings in the price of crude oil (the same one from which he wants to get away) is complicating the things. So much so that the kingdom has already been forced to moderate its expectations. What has happened? We told you a few days ago: Saudi Arabia has had to rethink the Neom megaprojects, the program with which the kingdom wants to promote works such as Trojena or The Line, a futuristic city 170 km long, 500 m high and 200 meters wide built from scratch in the middle of the desert. According to Financial TimesNeom’s president, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is now considering a “much smaller” scale. In fact, there is already talk of a drastic cut in The Line and changes also in Trojena. Is it a novelty? Half. Despite the efforts of Saudi Arabia for showing how the works were progressing, the international press has been warning for some time the difficulties (technical, but especially financial) that the kingdom has encountered to carry out its projects. own FT posted a few months ago a report in which he talked about how Neom’s dream is “unraveling.” His last article It goes further however and helps to understand the context. The cuts come after Neom officials commissioned an audit of the project. And although its final conclusions are not yet known, they seem to be strong enough that there are already architects working on the redesign of The Line. Their goal: to turn it into a “modest” project that can take advantage of the infrastructure built in recent years. There is talk of a change in concept, of a Neom that (without giving up the diversification of the Saudi economy) stops focusing on the “cities of the future” to focus on something much more concrete: data centers. The kingdom insists in any case that Neom is a bet that “aims to span generations” and its discourse (at least the public) is far from being defeatist. What is the problem? Beyond the scale and enormous ambition of the projects (only The Line involves building a 170 km city), Riyadh has encountered a perfect storm. Not even her years of waste (or precisely because of them) have prevented her from being forced to rethink some milestones in her initial schedule. The clearest example Trojena leaves it. There, in its ambitious ski resort, the 2029 edition of the Winter Games was going to be held. A few days ago, however, the Asian Olympic Council and its Saudi counterpart announced that the appointment will have to be postponed indefinitely. Financial Times remember that in the medium term the kingdom also has important commitments that will require it to step on the accelerator. The first will arrive with the international fair Expo 2030. The second, with the 2034 World Cup. Click on the image to go to the tweet. And what does the oil look like? If something they usually repeat analysts trying to explain the development of Vision 2030 (and more specifically Neom) is how the price of crude oil is influencing it. The reason is very simple. Although the financing of Vision 2030 does not fall directly into the budget of Saudi Arabia, its implementation does depend on large projects funded by the State. And it receives a large part of its income through oil. Saudi Arabia is the main exporter of crude oil on the planet, which explains that in 2024 this will represent 60% of public income. In general, oil and natural gas accounted for more than 20% of its entire GDP that year. A few months ago Arab Gulg States Institute (AGSI) I remembered that the weight of the oil business in the Government’s tax revenue is today much lower than a decade ago, when it reached 88%, but it has still accounted for close to 63% in recent years. Not only that. Its technicians recognize that the health of Aramco (the Saudi national oil company) is “vital for the health” of the public coffers and the country. Why is it important? By a simple rule of three. The implementation of Vision 2030 depends largely on the Saudi kingdom and its PIF (the Public Investment Fund), sovereign in nature and chaired by Mohammed bin Salman. And the money they receive is closely linked to the progress of the global oil business. In April of last year, in a complicated context, marked by fear of the trade war and differences within OPEC, Reuters warned of how the fall in the price of crude oil would be reflected in Aramco’s dividends… and these, in turn, in the money that would enter the coffers of the Government and the PIF. “The Government and the PIF will receive 32 billion dollars and 6 billion dollars less, respectively,” collected the chronicle signed by Yousef Saba. Already at that time there were experts who pointed out that this snip would take its toll on some of the projects that the kingdom had in its hands. “Saudi Arabia is likely to depend on debt financing and will have to delay or reduce some planned contract awards,” insisted Karen Young of Columbia University, recalling the nation’s deficit. Is there more? Yes. A key fact that in recent months have slipped several analysts and in which affected these days Brad Setser, CFR researcher, following the latest news about Neom and The Line. It is not just a matter of the price of oil rising or falling in the market, it is that Saudi Arabia needs the barrel of Brent to remain at certain … Read more

It is raining so much in the province of Jaén that the olive oil harvest has had a problem: there is too much water

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The “liquid gold” market expected a great recovery after years of drought, but the data you have given the Food Information and Control Agency At the end of December 2025, they have had a significant impact. Especially in the epicenter of oil production in our countrysuch as Jaén, where it has been registered a 45% drop in its accumulated production. Although it is something that hides an important economic paradox: it is selling more than ever. The figures. As detailed by the Ministry of Agriculture itselfthe reality of the current campaign is radically different from the previous one. While in 2024 Jaén accumulated almost 300,000 tons at the end of the year, this 2025 it has remained at half speed with 164,841 tons, which represents a variation of 45.3%. Something that has also been noticed at the national level. What has happened? Although everyone might think that we are talking about the drought that has caused there to be fewer olives, the reality is that excess rain has been the problem. The intense rainfall of November and December 2025, although beneficial for the tree in the long termhave been an obstacle to the harvest. Logically, with the mud it is difficult to enter with the machines to be able to pick the olives or work by hand. This has caused the harvest to be delayed and has affected the yield of the fruit. Other factors. Beyond the excess of rain at the end of this year, we must also highlight the high temperatures that were recorded in the month of June 2025, which damaged the weight of the fruit after spring fruit set that promised a lot, but fell short. Besides, according to COAG Jaénthe delay in taking the olive to the olive mill due to the weather has caused part of the fruit to suffer damage, reducing the final yield. Less oil, but more sales. Even though the silos fill more slowly, the market is extremely active. UPA Andalusia has highlighted that, despite the decrease in production, sales have increased by 10% in the last quarter, with a month of November where oil output reached 129,727 tons. This means that the consumer continues to demand olive oil despite the instability of recent years. Exports are also doing well, with a substantial increase of 44% in Andalusia, which puts pressure on current stocks, which are 13% lower than last year. The price. Without a doubt it is the most important point for the consumer, especially when in the past we have already seen really high prices for olive oil due to a bad harvest. Logic dictates that if supply falls and demand increases, prices should increase, but experts call for considerable caution. Right now, the price of Extra Virgin oil at origin moves between 4.20 and 4.29 euros per liter, and what is expected is that it will remain at a stable price during the year 2026, without major drops to maintain the stability of the sector that needs to cover costs. Images | Kostas Morfiris Nazar Hrabovyi In Xataka | Half of Spain has gone crazy with the question of whether olives make you fat or not. But your biggest problem is not calories.

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