impact

Its impact on wine

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“The misfortunes never come alone,” says the saying. August 2025 threatens to demonstrate in Ourense to what extent that is true. The province has been besieged by the flames, which have calcined thousands of hectaresforced to Evacuate neighbors and razed Farms Now the region faces however another challenge that threatens to hit one of its most emblematic industries: the wine. In fact there is already Who is speaking There are “completely razed” vineyards. They are the sequelae of fire. Ourense, in flames. The province of Ourense is not the only one that has been dealing with the flames for days, but its case is especially serious. There have registered the forest megaincendios of Queixa Chandrexa or that of Larouco, which some already point out like THE GAIN IN HISTORY from Galicia, with some 20,000 ha calcined. In general the wave of fires that the community supports for two weeks has burned more than 70,000 hamore than The surface from the city of Madrid. A sector in suspense. Although the fires have already razed homes and some farms Livestock From the province, there is a specific sector that follows the progress of the flames with special attention: The wine. Ourense has a secular winery tradition and hosts four different denominations (DO), that of Monterrei, Ribeiro, Valdeorras and Ribeira Sacrashared the latter with Lugo. This wine muscle in turn generates millions of euros and hundreds of jobs. According to The data That it manages the interprofessional of the wine of Spain Oive, there are vineyards in 60 of the 92 municipalities of Ourense, which in turn hosts one more than one third (33.7%) of the entire vinícola surface of Galicia. Only Pontevedra and Ourense add up to 82.5% of the vineyard area of the region and almost 87% of broth production. Now those responsible see how The heat wave It comes accompanied by a fire succession that reminds of those of 2022. The Invoice of Fire. To better understand how ourensanos winemakers live the progress of the flames comes to see reading The statements that left a few days ago in The country Ernesto Rodríguez, Bodeguero de la Do Monterrei and owner of the brands Father 1934 and Crego and Mongaguillo. It is not so much for the flames to directly reach the strains as the effect of their proximity. “I have seen completely razed vineyards. It is not that the strain burns, but the heat devours everything: it burns the leaves, the vegetation, and the grape dies,” He recounts Rodríguez. “When the heat approaches 50 m the grape is cooked, as if you put the fire. And if they are young vineyards, the damage is incalculable because you have to start.” From do Valdeorras Remember That the phenomenon even has a name, ‘araz’, “an excess of heat that interrupts the flow of saliva and dry the grape before maturation.” Have you affected the flames? The country Precise That the fires that have affected municipalities such as Oimbra, Laza or Verín have damaged two important varieties of the region, the Godello and Mencía. In some parishes, such as Ace Chás or Rosal, in addition to chestnuts, robes, olive trees and pasture areas have also burned vineyards. From the Valdeorras Regulatory Council they remembered a few days ago that the flames ended up crossing from the neighboring regions and entered for Larouco. Although it is early to know how the vineyards will affect the fire, there is a revealing fact: in 65.2% of the municipalities From Ourense there are planted vineyards. A delicate moment. The fire wave has caught the sector also at a particularly sensitive time: almost At the doors of the harvest. At the beginning of the month the regulatory advice of the four of Ourense trusted that the decrease in temperatures and the return of the rains favor the grape collection campaign, marked this year by the shortage of water of the summer. By then The region He slipped That, due to the delay in maturation due to water stress, the harvest could be delayed until the end of August or the beginning of next month. Now to drought, the cannula or the effect of mildew About strains add a new concern, even greater: forest fires. Images | Wikipedia, Ministry of Defense (X) In Xataka | That Ourense, León and Zamora concentrate this year the great fires have nothing casual: it is the “Triangle of Fire”

Russia is using a tactic that clashes with war codes. It is called a double impact, and after the drones the worst comes

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In 2025 we have seen changes and adaptations in the offensives of Moscow. Shahed drones have continued to be The spearhead of the invasion, but to them have joined other tactics that from kyiv have been denounced as “implacable”, such as that undetectable sabotage bomb through the mobiles of LUkrainian teenagers. The latest: “double impact” offensives. Calculated terror. In recent months, Ukraine has witnessed the intensification of A Russian tactic particularly brutal: the calls “Double-Tap” attacks or double impact, a strategy that consists in attacking a certain area (frequently a civil objective) and hitting the same place after the arrival of emergency equipment, volunteers and medical staff. This technique, described by the United Nations as “Ruthless”, or ruthlessis being observed on multiple fronts by Air Defenders and Ukrainian lifeguards, who relate How drones are initially used to inflict damage, and minutes later, cruise missiles fall on the same objective when there are already rescue personnel in the place. Relentless. The result not only multiplies the victims, but also seeks to break the morals and paralyze the response capacity of the Ukrainian authorities. According to testimoniesthis form of attack has been used near Kyiv, Bila Tserkva, Járkiv and Jersón, with registered impacts on recreational, residential or strategic infrastructure. Adaptation to the stage. The doctrine behind these attacks It is not new. Russia already She was accused to use the same technique during his Intervention in Syriain support of the Bashar Al-Vasad regime. What makes the difference in Ukraine is the combination of drones and missileswhere the former act as baits or advanced that attract lifeguards, and the latter ensure total devastation. Oleksiy, subcomandante of a Ukrainian mobile air defense unit, He describes it as an intentional use of multiple weapons “to intimidate the population” and neutralize any immediate response capacity. While some cases have involved only drones, others have combined the two vectors with lethal efficacy, as evidenced in a Attack on a complex Recreational near Kyiv in June, where the second explosion hit just when emergency teams tried to contain the fire. Moscow’s silence. For its part, Russia has not responded to requests for information on these incidents, and their Ministry of Defense He has sent to general statements of the exterior spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova. Meanwhile, surveillance images and testimonies on the ground seem to confirm the existence of a recurring pattern. An example provides it A shared recording From the outskirts of Kyiv, where the buzz of a drone is heard followed by an explosion, just when rescue personnel were in the area. Although the total frequency of this type of attacks is still difficult to estimate, the accumulation of cases suggests that they are not accidental, but part of a systematic strategy. Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War They have affirmed that the Russian forces “are most likely pointing intentionally against Ukrainian civilians and lifeguards”, in an effort for demoralize and paralyze The institutional response. Defensive situation. This trend coincides with a General deterioration of the Ukrainian defensive panorama, aggravated by the Temporary suspension of critical armament deliveries by of the United Statesincluding anti -aircraft ammunition and other essential equipment. The decision, adopted within the framework of the policy of containment of American strategic reserves under the presidency of Trump, could have serious consequences for Ukraine’s ability to defend its cities and positions on the front before the Russian offensive. Last week, Moscow launched about 550 ammunition In a single night against Ukrainian territory, a reflection of an increasingly intense air campaign. The Foreign Ministry of Ukraine He has warned That any delay in western support will only be emboldened to Kremlin, while experts warn that lack of backup will accelerate advances Russians on the ground. Under fire resilience. It We have counted: In this context of vulnerability, Ukrainian President Zelenski has held conversations with his American counterpart to try to restore air defense shipments, declaring that both countries “will work together to reinforce the protection of our skies.” However, uncertainty persists, and every day without elevation The risks of collapse defensive in certain regions. Meanwhile, the international community observes with concern the use of prohibited tactics or morally reprehensible by Russia, including attacks on civil areas seconded by A second lethal blow. Beyond the battlefield, these methods question the commitment of the international order to humanitarian law, and demand an answer before the exceptional becomes a norm. Image | Picryl In Xataka | Machines capturing and prisoners were the preserve of science fiction. Until the war in Ukraine arrived In Xataka | We were accustomed to seeing strange things in Ukraine, but this is different: ships and bombers with no one behind the wheel

The devastating economic impact of war in Ukraine, exposed in this graphic

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The video game ‘Fallout 3“It started with a phrase:” War … war never changes. ” But it turns out yes: the War between Russia and Ukraine has shown us that, in drone season, Military adaptation It is the difference between enduring another day or not. He has also represented the prelude What we are seeing now Between Iran and Israel. What is true that it has not changed is the trail of destruction that the continuous attacks leave in their path. And this chart reveals the direct economic cost that war has already left in Ukraine: Housing and Transport. Prepared by Visual Capitalistin the upper graph we can see a representation of the figures of the World Bank’s Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment. Updated until December 2023, (similar to 176,000 million estimates more recent), in the graph the direct damage of the Russian offensive in nine key sectors are broken down. The total? More than 175,000 million dollars in verified destruction. Two of them, at least two of the ones that most involve the population, are housing and transport infrastructure, and between them they are more than half of those 175,000 million. Specifically, it is estimated that one in eight Ukrainian homes has been damaged or destroyed, which translates into the need to have 57,000 million for reconstruction. On the other hand, damage to roads, bridges and rail lines are estimated at about 37,000 million dollars. Energy is not far behind. What housing and transport are the most damaged sectors directly does not imply that the rest of the destroyed elements are of lower importance and, in fact, everything goes hand in hand. For example, energy, with estimated damage to more than 20,000 million, occupies third place in the list. Although the country is connected to the European Emergency Electricity, it is something that has Exposed to blackouts to homes and companies. In fact, the Greater European nuclear power plant is Ukrainian. Or it was. And, as we said, everything is connected. Housing damage is causing the displacement of the population to other cities with rental housing in safer regions, than by the law of supply and demand, they rise in price, away from those refugees. And the damage to transport infrastructure not only hinders the movement of people and merchandise internally, but also the exports of grain and metals that help the economy of the country. Other sectors. Below 20,000 million we have other basic legs in any country. Are the following: Commerce and Industry – 17,500 million dollars. Education and Science – 13.4 billion dollars. Agriculture – 11.2 billion dollars. Water supply network 4.6 billion dollars. Culture and Tourism – 4.1 billion dollars. And another 10.3 billion dollars in other sectors. In the end, and as we indicated, many of them are related. Many more millions. Now, something important to keep in mind is that these are the estimated direct costs of verified physical damage. Which will cost to recover the country amounts to an astronomical figure: more than 524,000 million. According to the World Bankit is necessary for recovery during the next decade if the contest will end. This figure represents almost three times the estimated nominal GDP of Ukraine by 2024 and only the Rubble management It will require about 13,000 million dollars. In fact, the estimated breakdown for recovery is as follows: Housing – 84,000 million dollars. Transport – 78,000 million dollars. Energy and Mining – 68,000 million dollars. Commerce and Industry – 64,000 million dollars. Agriculture – 55,000 million dollars. And, again, all this counting with the end of the short -term conflict, something that is not yet on the horizon. On the sidelines, we must not put aside something irreplaceable. human losses. Because if something betrays the brutality of this war It is that Ukraine would have lost between 60,000 and 100,000 left. On the side of Russia, 250,000 soldiers would have already died in combat. In Xataka | Ukraine has been filled with civilians armed with rifles of World War II: they demolish Russian drones for $ 2,400

The impressive impact of the rains, seen from space

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After a particularly dry years in which Spain was being put face to Sahara branch With zones severely affected for drought and A disastrous 2024this 2025 seems to have broken the streak. After a spring Exceptionally rainywith many Reservoirs showing good healthalthough The ghost of drought Still there, there is also optimism. 2024 He left exhausted fields In good part of the country. But 2025, at least for now, has given them a break. And that is something that we can see with a comparison in satellite view about Spanish reservoirs and fields. Bewilderment. This year’s spring is being a puzzle. The Azores anticyclone, a dorsal from central Europe and a continuous transfer of low pressures systems has contributed to A really strange situation With storms, some very intense, hail and rains. March has been one of the Rainy Since 1961, when records began to be taken. It is only behind 2018 and 2013, with rainfall in a generalized way, widely exceeding average values. In May too We have seen unusual storms And the big question is what will imply that for traditionally dry summers in many parts of the Peninsula. Certainties. What we know is that there are areas where this shadow of drought seems to have dissipated. There are points in which the authorities already They are raising drought restrictions And transvases are also prepared equivalent to twice the annual consumption throughout an autonomous community –The Tajo-Segura-. And an area in which it seems that optimism reigns is in eastern Catalonia. The region suffered a devastating drought between 2021 and 2024 that forced measures not to end the reservoirs. There were no certainties that it would have entered a ‘Megasquía‘, but of course the situation was worrying. What we can be sure is that, in view of satellite, vegetation, rivers, lakes and reservoirs have gained ground this year. Green outbreaks. Different Catalan regions are very evident examples. In the suquera dam we see not only green in general, but also that the dam and the river has regained lost ground. In Lleida, beyond the rotation of crops, more of the same. There are many other examples throughout the geography related to reservoirs and green areas around its surroundings. Obviating crops, irrigation and with rotation in some cases, in the images in which there are natural green areas we can see what they are … well, more green. In the case of Almendra reservoir in Salamancaalthough the reservoir occupies less space this year, the green areas are somewhat more ‘bright’. Valencia after the Dana. On October 29, the water razed localities of the East of Castilla-La Mancha-Letur- and, above all, Valencian territory and part of the Alicante. In the satellite comparison, we can see that green has taken over the panoramic view from space, but with an important counterpart. As they point in The Valencian mercantilethat green of the cultivation fields may be due to greater exuberance, but not of the crops, but of the “weeds” that flourish in abandoned terrain. The effect of the Dana on the Albufera is also notable, which received Much of the weight of dragged waste from the localities to the south of Valencia. Unequal. In spite of everything, the enthusiasm for rains in general has not reached A concrete area of ​​the country: the Southeast. Alicante this Above last year’s data, but without reaching the average of the last decade, Murcia has Orange/red reserves and Almería is another of the red lanterns. While Andalusia has registered Fantastic data, Almeria reserves are found around 11%. In satellite images we see that they have some green sprouts, but in general the capacity of their reservoirs is not at the level that it should and we see that this problem of Almería with water has become a situation chronicle. Now, although spring has been generous, summer will have the last word about whether we abandon the drought … or not. What is clear is that Satellite images are very different To what was captured in May two years ago, where green gave all the prominence to the Marrol. Images | Sentinel-2 Copernicus In Xataka | “Thank you so much, reservoirs.net”: Spanish men are developing a peculiar obsession with swamps

We already have a rigorous study of the impact of US tariffs on the technology we buy. It is shocking

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The tariffs you are currently preparing The US government led by Donald Trump have American technology companies in suspense. In the middle of last April the US Customs and Border Protection Office He published a statement in which he officialized that some electronic devices and strategic components were tariff exempt. Of all of them. However, it is a strictly temporary measure, so presumably in the future tariffs will reach the consumer electronics industries and semiconductors. The US Technology Consumers Association (known as CTA for its English denomination) has published a very detailed report which has been prepared by Trade Partnership Worldwide (TPW), a consultant specializing in economic and commerce analysis. This study evaluates The foreseeable impact that tariffs They will have electronic consumer devices, and their conclusions are shocking. Two notes to get into flour: according to TPW, the Gross Domestic Product of the US will be reduced by 69,000 million dollars annually as a result of tariffs and consumers will spend 123,000 million less a year. The price of technology will increase between 11 and 70%, according to TPW Before moving forward it is important that we keep in mind that the study of this consultant describes a scenario in which the 90 -day suspension of the tariffs executed by the US administration ends in July and the highest taxes announced by the government led by Donald Trump are activated. This scenario is perfectly possible, hence the interest of this report, but at the situation of current instability it is also feasible that finally The announced measures are not implanted as the US government has foreshadowed. Video game consoles would be the most affected because most of them are manufactured in China Anyway, as I have anticipated a few lines above, the conclusions that TPW collects and those that CTA has given visibility are very worrying. According to this report, the average retail price of mobile phones will increase by 31%; that of the monitors, 32%; that of laptops and tablets, 34%; and that of video game consoles nothing less than 69%. The desktop PCs would not be released from an increase in their price close to 24%. Video game consoles would be the most harmed because most of them are manufactured in China, so they will presumably be subject to 145%tariffs. If so, according to TPW, imports in the US would fall by 71%. This almost apocalyptic scenario from a commercial point of view describes the impact that tariffs will have on the pocket of US consumers, but it is reasonable that we ask ourselves what will happen to US products that we will buy in Spain or other European countries. The most reasonable conclusion we can reach is that its price will also be increased by two reasons that run in parallel. On the one hand if US companies must assume higher costs due to the need to import components or manufacture abroad, prices of their products They will rise throughout the planet. And also If Europe decides to apply reciprocal tariffs To the imported products from the US, which currently seems most likely, again European consumers will pay more. We will see what happens finally, but the panorama is certainly not flattering. More information | TPW/CTA In Xataka | Tariffs force Apple to manufacture US iPhone in India. It is not a problem: it is a tactic with many advantages and few fissures

Apple anticipates 900 million dollars of tariff impact. It is equivalent to the cost of producing almost two million iPhone

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Apple has released the financial bomb that Wall Street was waiting for: 900 million dollars in extra costs For Trump’s tariffs. The figure, although considerable, is less devastating than feared by analysts, a possible sign of the stealthy preparation that Apple had been executing for months. The backdrop. Apple has exceeded expectations with 95.4 billion dollars in income, but The commercial war Draw a complicated horizon. Actions, in fact, fell 4% after closing. Not because of the present, above the expected, but for what will arrive after June. The market was waiting for clear answers about the future from Apple, but instead received well -calculated evasive. The money trail. Apple has also reduced its sharing repurchase program by 10,000 million compared to the previous year. It is the typical financial movement that goes unnoticed between tariff holders, but betrays a defensive position: Apple is accumulating effective before the commercial storm that is coming. The company that presumed from its treasury now protects it more than ever. Between the lines. “I don’t want to predict the future because I’m not sure what will happen to tariffs,” Cook said in The subsequent call with investors. It is not very common for a CEO to expose its uncertainty, and even less if we talk about Cook, known for its meticulous planning. Perhaps it is a symptom of the real problem: neither an all Apple can foresee the turns of Trump’s tariff policy. Emergency logistics reorganization, diverting iPhone manufacture towards India And from the rest of the products to Vietnam, it is impressive, but improvised: a plan B for which the deadlines have had to be accelerated. At stake. The battle goes beyond 900 million in a quarter: it is for the future of Apple’s business model. It is the sale of premium products with margins far superior to the average of its sector manufactured in Asia. If India is 5% or 8% more expensive than China, as analysts anticipate, it could lead to a blow to profitability. And would go far beyond a quarter. It is the first act of the threat of change for the technological value chain. In Xataka | Apple loses the war against Epic. Fortnite returns triumphant and Spotify already prepares its rematch Outstanding image | Rashed Paykary in Unspash

The Government has been launching the “pajorte” for months. Spanish porn platforms are already noticing their impact

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“Before watching this video for adults, please show me your porn card.” That was in July 2024 the idea of ​​the government to prevent minors from accessing pornographic content on the Internet. That hypothetical Pajorto It seems to have stayed in anyone’s land, however, because … Does anyone know where it is? Pajorto. The popularly known as porn card or “pajorte” had as an official name “Beta Digital”. That it was nothing more than a mobile application that thanks to the use of public or private keys would allow the user’s age to verify and give access to online pornographic content. Doubts everywhere. Soon many doubts appeared –even legal– On the viability of a very complex project at the technical level and With a little reach In our country. In addition, governments have centuries trying to put doors to porn And they never went too well. Pajorte, theoretically in tests. As they point out In the countryPajorte still does not exist even though it should have been ready for the “end of summer” of 2024. That was at least the promise of the then Minister of Digital Transformation, José Luis Escrivá. His successor, Óscar López, declared in the Senate On February 26 that the digital portfolio “is being reviewed at the National Cryptological Center to have all the security, because it has to give guarantees to all citizens.” Even so, according to the Vanguardia López, he said that the government “has found a solution to guarantee privacy and verify age” and that the Spanish tool is being “study in Europe and the same within a year all of Europe is applying it.” European digital identity (EIDAS2). The European Union It has been for years working on the call ‘European Digital Identity Wallet‘, a kind of digital identity card that will unify DNI, passwords and all payments in the same application. That initiative He is not exempt from criticismbut theoretically it will end up being implemented in November 2027 although the barriers are still important. Spain tried to advance with this digital portfolio focusing on solving the problem of access to the porn of minors, but the Spanish initiative has ended up becoming a recurring meme. Picture traffic drop. The Cumloouder Adult Content website, of the Asturiana Techpump company, asks its users in Barcelona and Madrid to choose an age verification system to access its contents. On the one hand, an app similar to Beta Digital Portfolio that makes the introduction of the DNI necessary. The second, an age estimate based on an image of the user’s face. Responsible for this platform explained in the country how their traffic has fallen 85% after implementing this system. Of the 15% who end up accessing “3.38% do the verification and 11.7% make the estimation with AI, it is almost four times more practically those who put their face.” Porn (national) would have to close. For those responsible for Cumlouder, a 85% drop in your business would be catastrophic. “The traffic is business. If we get to do it for all Spain, we go down blind,” said Javier Fernández, head of Techpump technology in statements to El País. Data privacy and protection. Pojorto will only affect Spanish porn platforms, which as we said are the ones that users use the least in our country. Despite this, this measure could harm them because the lack of legal clarity is worrying. The CNMC has processed several files for the application of the 2022 audiovisual lawwhich forces to take necessary measures for the protection of minors in this area. Better leave the business. In fact, the regulations are causing a blunt effect on that industry. “There is no system in the market that complies with the new audiovisual law without violating data protection rights,” explained one of those affected by regulation. He ended up selling the domain and eliminating the content “to avoid possible sanctions that could take me to bankruptcy.” The CNMC already fined 308,529 euros to Techpump Because of their zero age control, and these types of sanctions can be a death sentence for smaller platforms. Possible solution: no free content. The failure of the verification system has caused Techpump to choose to move on to a payment gateway, which will make it filter first with a credit card. From there they intend to create a verification system to offer it to other adult content platforms. The CNMC already indicated that the card payment is not enough to verify that a person is of legal age. United Kingdom, a parallel example. The British country also has been promoting measures to protect minors from access to pornography. His Online Safety Act It raises alternatives for identification and access to these contents, among which are a photographic identification, an age estimate, credit card checks or with digital identity services. However, there is no unique or definitive system, but It is supposed According to the British regulator, ofcom, which “by July 2025, all platforms must have a very effective age guarantee solution to protect children under 18.” Impossible to put doors to the field. All this leads to the colossal challenge of being able to control access to pornographic content by minors, something that seems almost impossible despite the efforts of Spain or the European Union. There is still room for options, of course, but the possible disadvantages – especially in privacy and limitation of freedoms – can be insurmountable obstacles to these projects. In Xataka | The Japanese are ceasing to consume paper pornography. And that has had a direct effect on its streets

In its pulse with the US, China has restricted key minerals for the Tech industry. Japan fears an impact globally

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The commercial war between United States and China It is developing with export controls. While Washington restricts the sending of advanced semiconductors and other avant -garde technologies, Beijing responds by limiting access to strategic resources. However, Japan has not hesitated to warn that the repercussions of this confrontation can go beyond these two powers. Financial Times points out That both the Japanese government and the companies in the country are alarmed by the recent measures of the Asian giant, which could mark the beginning of a “declaration of economic war against the rest of the world.” Japan, the greatest global consumer of Germanio, Graphite and Gallic, continues to receive these critical minerals, but fears that China further limits its supply. The dilemma of re -export controls China wants to prevent Gallium, whose supply to control 98%, drive military applications in the United States. And not only is he trying to do it directly with the export controls, but also indirectly with the Re -export controlswhich seek to limit the sending of products that contain this element, but the rules of the game are not clear at this time. The Chinese Gallic is in pieces made in Japan and imported by Tesla, as well as in Broadcom optical communication components and semiconductors used in Apple devices. However, Japanese suppliers that make up the supply chain of these US companies claim to ignore the gallium limit that they can incorporate into their products. So, as they warn, China could decide overnight that an excess of gallium is being sent to the United States and demand that a export license to continue supplying. The dynamics of licenses is well known: the United States has also used them To restrict the export of Nvidia graphics chips to Chinaand the problem is that, in most cases, they are never granted. In a globalized world, the decisions of key countries resonate beyond its borders. A change in the export policies of China or the United States can reconfigure access to essential resources, affect global prices and alter the economy of some nations. What seems like an isolated dispute can have direct effects on global markets, even making themselves feel in consumers. Images | Lio voo | Ln In Xataka | China’s veto to export minerals to the US had a small print and affects a key element of Ukraine defense: drones

The new data almost rule out the impact

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The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has fallen from 2.8% to just 0.16%, according to the Coordination Center of objects close to Earth Earth. NASA, meanwhile, has gone from an estimate of 3.1% (The highest since these records exist) at 0.28%. Almost-off risk. Space agencies have more and more data from 2024 YR4 because they have been incorporating new observations throughout their exhaustive monitoring of the asteroid. Therefore, and although it has been fluctuating in recent weeks, the most reliable estimate of its trajectory is what the European and NASA space agency has just published. With A possibility between 625 that the asteroid falls on Earth on December 22, 2032 (one between 357, according to NASA), ESA believes that we can soon rule out all the risks associated with 2024 YR4. What has changed. The new observations from large telescopes such as the Great Canary Islands Telescope, 10 meters in diameter, have allowed astronomers Reduce the uncertainty window in its calculations on the asteroid orbit. The range of options has been closed that the object crosses the earth in 2032. With current information, the Earth is on the verge of probability distribution, on the edge of that uncertainty window. If the fan had continued closing with the earth in the center, the probability would have continued to rise, but now the planet, to explain it visually, is about to get out of the graph to stop being a concern. The Webb will help discard it at all. The Webb Space Telescope, with its extraordinary sensitivity to observe infrared, will be key to rule out the probability of impact. The asteroid is moving away from Earth at this time, But the Webb can continue seeing it until Mayunlike the normal telescopes they observe in the visible. The observation hours already reserved by NASA, ESA and the Canadian Space Agency with the Webb Telescope will be extended until May. Among other things, these sessions will determine the size of the object, which is estimated between 40 and 90 meters, in the absence of knowing the reflectivity of its surface. Chronology of an asteroid. 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27 by the last system of land impact of asteroids (Atlas) from Chile, but did not caught the attention of astronomers until Automatically appeared on NASA’s Sentry list on December 31 for its impact risk greater than 1% with the planet Earth. The asteroid will go down in history as the first object for which activated the planetary defense action protocols established by the UN in 2018. Since then, space agencies have coordinated as many observatories as possible to follow it carefully. In May they will meet to deide what to do, unless the danger has been completely discarded. Image | THAT In Xataka | The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has risen to 3.1% (1 of 32): why the UN waiting for May to act

There is a 2% probability that the asteroid impact the earth, but we will not know how much it measures until the webb observes it

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He Asteroid 2024 YR4 He has aroused unusual interest since his discovery on December 27. Although the probability of impact with the earth remains very low, has risen from 1 to 2% As new observations are obtained. However, astronomers are having difficulty measuring their size and have decided to resort to the most powerful space telescope in history to get out of doubt. There is a problem in how an asteroid is measured. Until now, the size estimates of 2024 YR4 have oscillated between 40 and 90 meters in diameter, a too wide range to assess the danger that would represent an eventual impact with our planet. This lack of precision has a reason and is that The size of the asteroid is calculated from the reflected visible lighta method that depends on the reflectivity of its surface. 2024 YR4 could be an object of 40 meters very reflective or an object of 90 meters very dark. As well as any intermediate option. The James Webb space telescope to the rescue. Unlike other observatories, The 10,000 million dollar telescopeoperated by NASA, ESA and the Canadian space agency, does not observe the visible spectrum, but the infrared spectrum, and with an unprecedented sensitivity. Astronomers will allocate hours of webb use to analyze the infrared light emitted by the asteroid to obtain a more precise measurement of its size and temperature. With luck, it will allow them to discern whether 2024 YR4 is at the lower or upper end of the estimated range, crucial information to better evaluate the consequences of their unlikely but possible impact. Two rounds of observation are planned. Space agencies have foreseen Two rounds of crucial observations With the Webb Telescope. The first will take place in early March, when the asteroid is at its point of greatest brightness and visibility for the telescope. The second round, scheduled for May, will allow scientists to study how the object temperature varies as it moves away from the sun, in addition to continuing to obtain data on its trajectory when the object has ceased to be visible by terrestrial telescopes. Why fluctuate the probability of impact. The 2% estimate is the most up -to -date ES has provided so far (NASA publishes a 2.1% estimate). The figure varies constantly because the calculations have been incorporating new observations that reduce the uncertainty of their trajectory. These fluctuations are, in fact, typical behavior in the estimation of the impact risk of newly discovered objects. NASA planetary defense equipment and ESA are based on orbital dynamic systems (such as Scout, Sentry, Meerkat and Aegis) that generate multiple possible trajectories for the asteroid. As less likely orbits are discarded, targeting on Earth may increase the fraction of possible impacts, although, over time, additional observations allow the threat to definitively discard. If this were not the case with 2024 YR4, we would be talking about a meteorite that could fall in countries as populated as Colombia, Nigeria or India on January 22, 2032. Then we would start talking about a mission to divert it, a task in the that We already have some practice. Image | Two of the 18 mirrors of the Webb Telescope (NASA/C. GUNN) In Xataka | The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has risen to 1.6%. The UN has already activated a special protocol

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