Europe

Europe believes it has won the gas war against Russia, but it has forgotten one small detail: infrastructure

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Europe has made a historic decision: 2027 will be the year in which the last trace of Russian gas disappear from the energy system of the continent. However, between the offices in Brussels and the reality of homes there is a chasm that is not measured in cubic meters, but in months of construction. The continent’s security no longer depends on diplomacy with the Kremlin, but on the speed at which terminals can be erected, tubes connected and ships deployed. The new European sovereignty is in the hands of the engineers. A system to build. As analyst Giacomo Prandelli explainsthe focus of the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) market has been on the price, but the real crisis is infrastructure. Europe is in a frantic race to replace Russian gas, but much of the necessary capacity is still under construction or in the planning phase. This has created a golden opportunity for a very select group of companies that own the physical assets. According to Prandelli, there are vital European companies that still go unnoticed. He gives as an example a firm valued at 662 million euros that operates “at a bargain price”: Their profits are very high compared to their stock market value and, most importantly, they already have government contracts secured until 2030. They are, basically, the owners of the “plugs” that Europe is forced to go through. The reasons for structural change. The reason for this urgency is an irreversible “divorce”. According to data collected by OilPriceRussian exports by gas pipeline to Europe have fallen by 44% in 2025, reaching lows in the 1970s. The definitive closure of the Ukrainian route this December leaves the continent without its historic arteries. The reasons for this new reality are three: US dependence: US gas It already represents 56% of LNG imports in Europe. The July 2025 agreementby which the EU will buy 750 billion dollars in energy from the US, has reconfigured the global board. The physical rigidity of the system: Although there is plenty of gas in the global market, European regasification plants (especially in the Netherlands) have operated at the limit of their technical capacity. Spain has the gas, but cannot send it to the rest of Europe: its pipelines with France they only allow export 8,500 million m³ per year. The problem is not the lack of fuel, it is the “funnel” of the pipes. Gas as an eternal backup: A report from McKinsey & Company issues an uncomfortable warning: Gas demand will grow by 26% until 2050. Europe needs gas to stabilize its electricity grid when renewables fail. The energy transition, far from eliminating gas, has turned it into a “permanent strategic pillar.” The Black Sea axis and the ghost fleet. However, the European wall has cracks. Hungary and Slovakia they keep injecting money to the Kremlin via the Druzhba pipeline and the TurkStream route. While Brussels asks for disconnection, Budapest and Bratislava build new connections towards the Black Sea, claiming that the cut would be “economic suicide.” Added to this is the fear of the “ghost fleet.” Brussels fears that Russian gas will repeat the oil scriptan opaque market of ships that change flag and documentation to hide the origin of the gas. To avoid this, the EU has imposed fines of up to 3.5% of global turnover and certificate of origin systems, but the crude oil precedent shows that, when Europe closes a door, the market usually opens a clandestine window. Europe’s floating lifebuoy. Given the slowness of concrete, a technical solution arises. According to Professor Alexandre Munspoints towards FSRUs (Floating Storage and Regasification Units). These ships are mobile regasification plants that use the heat of the sea to process the gas. According to Muns, their advantages are the speed of deployment and the cost since they can be rented for about $155,000 per day. Giants such as Excelerate Energy or Höegh LNG are those that today allow the EU to keep the pulse. Without these ships, the gas crossing the Atlantic simply would have nowhere to enter the continent. The tyranny of the calendar. Europe closes 2025 with deceptive calm. As reported by El Economistaprices have fallen to four-year lows (€27/MWh) thanks to a mild winter and the constant flow of ships. But, as the president of Sedigas, Joan Batalla, warns, this stability is “conditional.” Any extreme cold snap or technical failure in a saturated terminal could skyrocket prices again, because the network operates without margin for error. Europe’s autonomy is no longer negotiated in Moscow; It is built in the ports of Germany, in the interconnections of the Pyrenees and in the FSRU shipyards. The success of the 2027 plan will not depend on politicians’ promises, but on cranes and welders finishing their work before the climate changes the rules of the game. Image | freepik Xataka | The European Union has finally made the decision that has terrified it for so many years: stop importing Russian gas

Europe has experienced its cleanest electric Christmas. The problem is what comes next

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Europe has just said goodbye to the “cleanest” Christmas in its recent history in electrical terms, but the sector’s toast has been bittersweet. While families celebrated the holidays with electricity prices at a minimum, in the offices of regulators and analysis centers a very different scenario was already being drawn for the near future. We have the sun, we have the wind and we have broken production records, but the system shows signs of exhaustion. The success of this Christmas is, in reality, a reminder of the paradox that the continent is experiencing: we have never produced so much clean energy and, yet, the specter of gas, the saturation of the networks and an imminent rise in regulated costs threaten to spoil the party from 2026. The milestones of December. The fourth week of December 2025 will be recorded as an oasis of low prices. According to data from AleaSoft Energy Forecastingthe prices of the main European electricity markets fell significantly, with weekly averages below €85/MWh. In the Iberian Peninsula, the MIBEL market led this trend with a drop of 20%, the largest percentage decrease on the continent. This phenomenon, dubbed by analysts as the “Christmas effect”, is due to the combination of lower demand due to the festive break and a massive increase in wind and solar production, which put downward pressure on prices across almost the entire continent. The deployment of clean energies. As the report detailssolar photovoltaic production increased by 48% in Portugal and 21% in Spain during the week of December 22. This push was not exclusive to the peninsula: Germany, Italy and France set new historical highs for photovoltaic production for a day in December (Germany generated 87 GWh on the 25th). For its part, wind production maintained its upward trend, rising by 80% in Italy and 21% in Spain. According to the monthly report of OMIEthis force of the wind had already been brewing since November, the month in which wind energy reached a market share of 39.7% in the Spanish system. Abundance vs. rigidity. Despite these records, the transition faces critical obstacles: the disconnection between generation and the capacity to absorb it. According to AleaSoft forecastsAlthough solar production continues to grow, the European grid shows signs of saturation as demand falls. The technical problem is that, at times of maximum solar production and low demand, the system has nowhere to store the surplus. This forces prices collapse non-structurallywhich in the long term puts the profitability of new investments in check. Furthermore, added to this is a fiscal anomaly since in much of Europe, electricity is still burdened with tolls and taxes that make it up to three times more expensive than gas for the end user, slowing down the adoption of efficient technologies. like heat pumps. The Spanish case: the danger of bottlenecks. In Spain, this situation is especially delicate. The country has converted in a “case study on the dangers of saturation.” The lack of investment in networks (only 30 cents for every euro invested in renewables) has caused the curtailment —clean energy that is wasted because the grid cannot transport it—has tripled. The example most critical is Asturias. The network in the central Asturian area is at the technical limit; No more storage projects or new industry can be connected because the cables and transformers cannot support any more load. Furthermore, to avoid blackouts, Red Eléctrica operates in “reinforced mode”activating expensive gas plants to stabilize the tension, an extra cost that ends up in the citizens’ bill. A structural January slope. This Christmas’s price relief could be temporary. AleaSoft Energy Forecasting warns that future of CO2 have reached their highest closing prices since October 2024 (above €88/t), and TTF gas remains stressed due to low temperatures and European reserves below 65%. And in Spain we have to add the regulatory horizon of 2026. As we have detailedthe largest simultaneous increase in fixed costs in years is expected: transport tolls will rise by 12.1% and government charges by 10.5%. There is a real risk of returning to the tariff deficit if electricity demand does not grow as much as the Government expects, which would generate new structural debt in the system. The challenge of not dying of success. The European energy transition has shown that it can expel fossil fuels in certain days. However, this triumph has collided with an insurmountable physical reality: obsolete networks and a cost structure that still penalizes electricity. Christmas 2025 has given us a green market, but the shadow of 2026 reminds us that it is not enough to fill the landscape with mirrors and windmills. Without a real commitment to batteries, a modernization of cables and a reform of regulated costs, the abundance of clean energy will remain a mirage that fades just before reaching our pockets. Image | freepik Xataka | 2026 has not yet started but it has already managed to produce the first bad news: the light goes up

Apple made privacy its flag. One of his functions has resulted in a fine of 98 million euros in Europe

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Privacy has been one of Apple’s great arguments to explain why its ecosystem works differently. It is not just a technical issue, but a narrative built over years. Precisely for this reason it is surprising that a tool presented as an advance for the user is at the center of a fine of almost one hundred million euros. The Italian Competition Authority has imposed Apple fined 98.6 million euros for abuse of dominant position, considering that the implementation of App Tracking Transparency restricts competition. The focus is not on the idea of ​​​​protecting data, but on how those rules were applied to developers who distribute their apps on iOS. This is where the underlying shock lies. The origin of the function. Transparency Tracking App It does not arise in this regulatory context, but several years earlier, as part of a broader change in Apple’s privacy strategy. The feature was introduced in April 2021 with the release of iOS 14.5 and was presented as a direct way to return control over advertising tracking to the user. From then on, each app had to ask for explicit permission before tracking user activity on other apps and websites. It was a turn that reordered the mobile ecosystem from within. The logic behind App Tracking Transparency is based on a specific definition of what Apple considers tracking. It is not just about displaying ads, but about linking data collected in an app with information obtained from third-party services for targeted advertising or measurement. If the user chooses not to be tracked, the developer loses access to the IDFA and, according to system rulesnor may you use other personal identifiers for the same purpose. It is a technical cut that simplifies the user’s decision, but has direct consequences on how many applications are monetized. A position of strength in the iOS ecosystem. For the Italian authority, the key is not the subsequent opening of the system, but the situation that existed when ATT began to be applied. During that period, Apple concentrated control over the distribution of iOS apps and over the rules that govern advertising tracking at the system level. From that dominant position, the regulator concludes, the company was able to set conditions that had a competitive impact. All of this, beyond the stated objective of protecting user privacy. The App Tracking Transparency Notice The core of the reproach: “double consent.” The heart of the penalty is how ATT was applied to third-party developers. According to the Italian authorityApple’s screen required a first permit to be requested which, by itself, did not meet all the requirements of European data protection regulations. This forced developers to request a second additional consent for the same advertising purpose. That extra step, the regulator maintains, reduced the probability of acceptance and limited the collection and use of data necessary for personalized advertising. The economic impact is one of the pillars of the file. By increasing the friction of obtaining consent, ATT limited the collection and linking of data used to measure and personalize ads. For the Italian authority, this harmed developers whose business is based on the sale of advertising space and also affected advertisers and intermediation platforms. In the summary of the case, the regulator adds that this design could generate benefits for Apple, both through higher commissions associated with App Store services and the growth of its advertising business. Was there another way to do it? One of the keys to resolution is that the problem is not in the goal, but in the path. The Italian authority claims that Apple could have achieved the same level of privacy protection without requiring duplicate consent requests. Disagreement and notice of appeal. Apple has expressed its disagreement with the resolution of the Italian authority and considers that it does not adequately value the privacy protections provided by ATT. In a statement cited by Reutersthe company insists that the system was created to give users clear control over ad tracking and that its rules apply equally to all developers. The company has also confirmed that it will appeal the fine and that it will maintain its commitment to protecting user privacy. The fine is the result of a long and complex investigation. According to the case summarythe Italian authority opened the file in May 2023 and expanded its scope in October 2024, in coordination with the European Commission, other competition regulators and the national data protection authority. This joint approach underlines that ATT’s analysis was not limited to a single country or a single dimension. Rather, it was approached as a intersection between competition, privacy and the functioning of the digital market. Beyond the announced appeal, the resolution imposes immediate effects. The authority orders Apple to immediately cease the aforementioned conduct and refrain from repeating similar practices in the future. In addition, Apple has 90 days to inform the AGCM how it will comply with those demands. It is not clear, for now, whether this calendar also depends on the appeal process, but the case makes it clear that the debate is no longer just theoretical. Images | Georgiy Lyamin | Screenshot In Xataka | We believed that Microsoft had already put Copilot everywhere. LG shows us that we were very wrong

When the war in Ukraine ends, Russia has a plan for Europe

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A week ago and in the midst of the peace negotiations that the United States has tried to lead between Russia and Ukraine, the president of Finland issued a warning to the old continent. If peace comes to Eastern Europe, it will be the end of the war, but also, possibly, the beginning of another. Now it has been Washington’s intelligence that seems to be on the same line. The ultimate goal. counted this week Reuters that US intelligence reports have been conveying a less than reassuring message for more than two years: Putin’s objectives in Ukraine have not been moderated or reduced, despite military attrition, economic sanctions and ongoing diplomatic talks. Since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, the assessment of US agencies has been that the Kremlin aims to subdue all of Ukraine and, beyond that, to restore a sphere of influence over territories that were part of the former Soviet bloc, including countries that today they are part of NATO. This reading is neither punctual nor cyclical, but rather a line of analysis sustained over time that agrees widely with the conclusions of the European intelligence services and with the strategic perception of countries especially exposed as Poland or the Baltic Stateswhich are considered the next potential targets if Moscow manages to consolidate its position in Ukraine. Between intelligence and speech. This diagnosis collides head-on with the narrative promoted by Trump and his negotiating team, who maintain that Putin wants to end the conflict and that a peace agreement would be closer than ever. For intelligence analysts, that view ignores both the Russian leader’s own public statements and the logic of your actions military and political. From Washington it is emphasized that Putin has denied repeatedly be a threat to Europe, but the facts (the annexation of territories, sustained military pressure and the refusal to renounce maximalist demands) contradict that discourse. Even voices within the US Congress, such as that of the Democratic congressman Mike Quigleya member of the House Intelligence Committee, have insisted that the conviction that Russia “wants more” is shared by allies key in Europe and is based on solid information, not assumptions. Territorial control. On the ground, Russia controls approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory. This domain includes almost all of the provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk, the industrial heart of Donbas, large areas of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, and the Crimean peninsula, a strategic enclave in the Black Sea. Putin does not present these conquests as provisional or negotiable: he has formally declared that Crimea and the four occupied provinces belong to Russiaa statement that sets a clear red line for any negotiation. This position turns the territorial debate into the main obstacle of diplomatic contacts, since accepting these demands would mean, de facto, legitimizing a war of annexation and setting a dangerous precedent for the post-Cold War European order. Pressure on kyiv. In this context, Washington’s pressure on kyiv has been increasing. According to sources familiar with the talks, the US proposal would include Ukraine withdraw your forces of the areas of Donetsk that it still controls, as part of a peace agreement. For Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the majority of Ukrainian society, this concession is unacceptable. Not only would it imply ceding sovereign territory under military coercion, but it would call into question future viability of the Ukrainian State and its ability to defend itself from new aggression. kyiv insists that any agreement that does not include real and credible security guarantees would be equivalent to freeze the conflict on terms favorable to Moscow, leaving the door open to a resumption of the war when Russia feels stronger. Security: the great debate. The negotiations led by Trump’s entourage, with figures such as Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, have advanced in defining a package of security guarantees backed by the United States and generally accepted by Ukraine and several European countries. These guarantees would contemplate the deployment of a security force mainly European in neighboring countries and in areas of Ukraine far from the front, with the aim of deterring and responding to future Russian aggression. The scheme would also include a limit on the size of the Ukrainian army, set at around the 800,000 troopsalthough Moscow is pushing to reduce it further, a demand to which some American negotiators are open. To this would be added intelligence support by the United States, air patrols backed by Washington and the ratification of the agreement by the US Senate, which in theory would give the commitment greater political solidity. Mistrust and Russian mystery. Despite these advances, Zelenskiy has publicly expressed your doubts about the real effectiveness of those guarantees, wondering what would prevent Russia from attacking again in practice. Uncertainty worsens because Putin has rejected the presence of foreign troops in Ukraine, even as part of a peace agreement. In parallel, the Russian leader has not offered signs of flexibility: although he declares himself willing to talk about peace, he insists that his conditions must be met and boasts of the territorial advances achieved by his forces, which he estimates at about 6,000 square kilometers in the last year. The lack of a clear response from Washington to these demands fuels the perception that Moscow could be using the talks as a tactical tool to buy time and consolidate positions. Strategic risk. From the Office of the Director of National Intelligence has qualified that Russia, in its current state, lacks the military capacity to conquer all of Ukraine or to launch a full-scale offensive against Europe. However, the reports themselves emphasize that the lack of immediate capacity does not equate to a strategic renunciation. Putin’s political intention, according to US intelligence, remains being expansiveand their calculation seems oriented toward a long war, in which the attrition of Ukraine and the political fatigue of the West work in their favor. That combination of unbroken ambition and strategic patience is what explains the caution (also, if you will, skepticism) of the intelligence services regarding … Read more

Spain turns in the opposite direction to the rest of Europe. Form part of a geological plan: closing the Mediterranean

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Spain and Portugal are dancing to a different rhythm than the rest of Europe. They are moving clockwise and the consequence is clear: a long-term closure of the Mediterranean that connects the Iberian Peninsula directly to North Africa. The convergence between continents is slow, a few millimeters a year (so we will continue needing the tunnel between Spain and Morocco), but one thing is clear: another Pangea is on the way. And the Iberian Peninsula and Morocco will be a unit. In short. Continental plates move. Some separate, others collide, and that continental drift has caused the emergence the Pangea Ultima theory. In 250 million years, there will only be one continent. There is a long way to go for that, but now, some researchers from the University of the Basque Country have analyzed geodetic data that allows them to affirm that the Iberian Peninsula is rotating clockwise. This east-west rotation is driven by the convergence between the Eurasian and African plates, and the conclusion is clear: both are moving between four and six millimeters closer each year. This information is not new, but the researchers’ discovery is to specify the processes that take place at the diffuse boundary of the two western Mediterranean plates. Thanks, Gibraltar. Although the boundaries of other plates are well defined, this does not occur in the Western Mediterranean. There, the processes are much grayer, and there is something called “Gibraltar Arch” which plays an interesting role in this tectonic dynamic. To the east of the strait, the crust absorbs the deformation caused by the collision between the Eurasian and African plates. This ‘Gibraltar Arc’ acts as a buffer, but it has a consequence: in the west of the strait there is a direct collision between the plates, while in the east it is absorbed by the Gibraltar Arc. This lack of buffering from the southwest is what causes the clockwise rotation. Rotational strain rate field. Positive values ​​correspond to clockwise rotation, while negative values ​​refer to counterclockwise rotation. Active and potentially active faults are marked with solid and dashed gray lines, respectively. Double analysis. The researchers combined two types of accuracy analyzes to obtain these results. On the one hand, those of satellite deformation through GNSS system (Global Navigation Satellite System). Analyzing the data, they measured surface displacements with millimeter precision, relying on both permanent and occasional GPS markers. On the other hand, they also analyzed information from recent earthquakes that allowed them to determine the tectonic “stresses” in the area. They are independent data sets, but by crossing them they were able to draw a series of ‘lines’ that have allowed them to better specify the boundary between the plates. So that? Well, to better understand which sectors are in direct collision between plates and which are still more protected by the Gibraltar Arc. And the neighbors? The problem is that, although they claim that it is a rapid tectonic movement, this is true in geological terms. For us it is invaluable, but it also comes into play that we only have satellite data since 1999 and detailed seismic data since the 1980s. Even so, if with such a short range of data we have reached that conclusion in the annual approach, it is because the phenomenon is not in a hurry, but it does not pause either. And the most interesting thing is that this only affects the Iberian Peninsula. It is not that we are going to separate from France, since we ‘drag’ the rest of the continent thanks to the effect of the Gibraltar Arc, but we are not turning in the same direction as other neighbors. Italy, for example, experiences a counterclockwise rotation that exerts pressure in the alpine zoneand in the anatolian plate (where most of Türkiye is), there is also this counterclockwise rotation. Hello, Morocco. While in Turkey the consequence may be more earthquakes or mountain formations, this current speed of between 4 and 6 millimeters will cause, at some point, the Iberian Peninsula and Morocco to unite. This continental collision would close the Mediterraneanbut there is a lot left for it. How much? About 100 million years. They estimate that for 20 million years we will continue at the same speed, but within about 50 million years, things will gain momentum, accelerating the process and turning the region into one of the most active volcanic and seismic areas on the planet. It’s… foolish to worry. present utility. Now, beyond curiosity, the most immediate implication that the researchers point out is a better identification of active faults or areas in which previously unidentified tectonic structures could exist. Asier Madarieta-Txurruka, one of those responsible for the investigation, explains This information indicates where to look for these structures and boundaries to determine what type of folds and faults there may be. Thus, we can anticipate the type of earthquake that there will be and its magnitude in areas such as the Western Pyrenees or the region of Cádiz and Seville in which we know that there are numerous places with significant deformationbut we do not have well identified the active tectonic structures that cause them. And, although there is still a long way to go before the Alps and a new mountain range are founded across the peninsula and all of North Africa to Arabia, knowing better what we have right under our feet is much more useful. In Xataka | We knew that Africa was going to split in half. What we didn’t know was that it would happen so quickly.

Russia’s ghost fleet has changed its business model. Oil has given way to a much bigger target: Europe

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Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has not only built a vast fleet of tankers to avoid Western sanctions and continue exporting crude oil from the Baltic and the Black Sea, but has turned that logistical infrastructure into something much more ambitious. How much? The size of an old continent. The fleet in the shadows. According to Western and Ukrainian intelligence sources cited by CNN, Part of this so-called shadow fleet is being used as a covert platform for espionage and hybrid operations in European waters. We are talking about hundreds of ships that routinely sail near the coasts of EU and NATO countries, generating income of hundreds of millions of dollars for Moscow while, at the same time, expanding the radius of action of its security services away from Russian territory. “Civilian” crews with a detail. The pattern detected by the intelligence services is revealing. Many of these tankers, registered under flags of convenience and with mostly Asian or African crews, incorporate just before setting sail to one or two Russian citizens additional. The crew lists show as simple “technicians”but his background tells another story: former police officers, members of special units of the Ministry of the Interior, veterans of the Russian army or former mercenaries linked to Wagner. They are often the only Russians on board and, according to testimonies of Danish maritime pilots and European observers, exercise an authority that goes beyond the civilian chain of command, even imposing itself over the ship’s captain. Moran Security and privatization. Many of these men would be linked to Moran Security Groupa private Russian company with deep ties to the FSB, GRU, and the Kremlin’s military contractor ecosystem. Moran was sanctioned by the United States Treasury in 2024 for providing armed security services to Russian state companies, and his history connects directly with Wagner and with operations in scenarios such as Syria or Somalia. Its corporate structure (with registrations in Moscow and in opaque jurisdictions such as Belize) and its professional profile, explicitly oriented to recruit veterans of special forces, fit perfectly into the logic of hybrid warfare: formally private actors that allow the Russian state to operate with a high degree of plausible deniability. Espionage and internal control. The functions of these “technicians” would not be limited to protecting the cargo. Ukrainian and Western sources maintain that also supervise captains non-Russian vessels to ensure that the ships are acting in the interests of the Kremlin and that, in at least one documented case, took photographs of European military installations from one of these tankers. Furthermore, although details are scarce, intelligence services suggest that some of these men have participated in acts of sabotage. These would not be direct confrontations, but rather low-profile actions designed to collect information, generate uncertainty and strain the limits of the Western response. The Boracay case. He Boracay tanker illustrates this dynamic well. Sanctioned, with frequent changes of name and flag, two Russian citizens embarked in September in the port of Primorsk, near Saint Petersburg. Both were listed as technicians and were the only Russians among a crew of Chinese, Burmese and Bangladeshis. Coincidence or not, his crossing through Danish waters overlapped with a wave of sightings of drones near the Copenhagen airport and Danish military bases. Days later, the ship was boarded by the French navy against Brittany for irregularities in their documentation. No drones were found on board, but the presence of the two Russians came to light and they were discreetly questioned. For some analyststemporal correlation proves nothing, but for others It fits too well with the pattern of trial and error in the “gray zone.” Drones, sensors and something new. Beyond Boracay, Swedish and Danish authorities have detected on other ships in the shadow fleet antennas and masts not usually found on civilian merchant ships, as well as hostile behavior towards inspectors and an obsession with photographing critical infrastructure. In an environment like the Baltic, a strategic bottleneck surrounded by NATO countries, any anomalous activity becomes a disproportionate weight. For European security services, these ships are ideal mobile platforms: seemingly legal, difficult to intercept without diplomatic escalation and capable of approaching ports, cables, bases and airports without raising immediate alarms. Hybrid warfare at sea. All this fits with a broader strategy that senior intelligence officials, such as the new head of British MI6describe as constant testing “below the threshold of war.” Drones near airports, aggressive activity at sea, discreet sabotage and covert espionage are part of the same repertoire. The shadow fleet is not only an economic instrument to circumvent sanctions, but an extension of the Russian security apparatus, capable of operating in a space where Western legal and military responses are slow and politically sensitive. The European dilemma. Europe thus faces an uncomfortable decision. Intercepting ships without insurance, with dubious documentation or with armed personnel on board could stop these practices, but it also carries the risk of a direct russian reaction. As summarized on CNN a veteran Danish maritime pilot, no small country wants to be the first to make the move. The answer, if it comes, will have to be collective. Meanwhile, the shadow fleet continues growing and sailingdemonstrating that for the Kremlin the war is not only being fought in Ukraine, but also in the seas surrounding Europe, silently and in civilian uniform. Image | kees torn, Greg Bishop In Xataka | For years Europe has wondered how to stop the Russian ghost fleet. Ukraine just showed you the way: with AI In Xataka | A ghost fleet has mapped the entire underwater structure of the EU. The question is what Moscow is going to do with that information.

Europe is the world leader in heat pump manufacturing. The only problem is that Europeans don’t use them

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Not to get grandiose, but Europe has never had so many renewables underwayhad never made so much clean technology and never had talked so much about energy independence. And yet, winter has arrived again and the ritual is always the same: turning on the heating still means burning imported gas. Although if we reach this point it is not for lack of alternatives, because they are there. The problem is much more mundane: in much of the continent, heating with electricity it’s still more expensive than doing it with gas. The energy shock that changed everything. A recent EMBER report has detailed how Europe abruptly lost access to cheap Russian gas and had to replace it with much more expensive liquefied natural gas in a highly volatile global market. The result was an unprecedented price shock: an accumulated extra cost of 930 billion euros during the energy crisis. More on fossils. Far from being a problem caused by the green transition, the document indicates that the impact was concentrated precisely in the sectors most dependent on imported fossil fuels. Energy-intensive industries reduced production and, in many cases, never returned to pre-Ukraine war levels. This reading coincides with that presented by researcher Jan Rosenowwho rejects the idea that dismantling climate policies would make energy cheaper. The problem, he maintains, was not going too fast, but rather having delayed electrification for decades and having kept gas as the pillar of the system. Here the central contradiction emerges. According to EMBERheat pumps are a mature, efficient and strategic technology: they produce between two and three times more heat than a gas boiler for each unit of energy consumed. Even if that electricity came entirely from a gas plant, the net fuel savings would still exist. However, in practice, the technological advantage is diluted in the bill. In most EU countries, electricity costs 2 to 4 times more than gas for the end consumer. The average electricity-gas ratio in the EU is 2.85, and in some member states it exceeds 4. The problem: the pricing structure. As pointed out in the consultancynon-energy costs —taxes, tolls and public policy surcharges— can represent up to three quarters of the final price of electricity, while gas maintains a much lower tax burden. The result is an obvious distortion: the most efficient technology appears expensive and the most polluting technology appears affordable. You save but not. For an average home, this anomaly has a direct effect, since changing systems reduces energy consumption, but it does not always reduce the bill. And when that happens, adoption slows down. Furthermore, the data confirm that this is not a cultural or climatic issue, but rather an economic one. In countries like the Netherlands, where electricity is only slightly more expensive than gas, heat pump sales are soaring. On the other hand, in Germany, Poland or Hungary —where electricity can cost more than three times as much as gas—, adoption is much lower. The lever that remains to be activated. Solutions exist and many are immediately applicable: transferring the costs of electricity policies to public budgets, reducing electricity VAT, taxing fossil gas more coherently or implementing specific rates for heat pumps. From there, technological deployment is no longer a promise, but a reality. In fact, Europe leads the global heat pump industrywith manufacturers such as Bosch, Vaillant, NIBE or Danfoss, and with industrial projects that already operate on a large scale. These are not prototypes or pilots, but rather functioning infrastructure. Real limits and tensions. None of this eliminates obstacles. Europe still need gas to stabilize its electrical grid. The infrastructures are stressed, the flexibility of the system is insufficient and any cold winter can send prices skyrocketing again. Added to this are the physical frictions of the transition. The massive expansion of offshore wind in the North Sea is generating unprecedented conflicts between countries due to the so-called “wake effect”, which reduces the production of neighboring parks. Electrification is not only a matter of political will, but also of technical coordination and supranational planning. The anomaly that Europe has not yet corrected. Europe already has the technology, the industry and the climate goals. What it has not yet corrected is a basic anomaly: fiscally penalizing electricity while de facto subsidizing fossil gas. As long as that distortion persists, heat pumps will continue to advance more slowly than data, engineering, and economic common sense would allow. As the EMBER report concludeselectrifying heating is not a green whim, but a strategy for energy security, industrial competitiveness and price stability. The transition is not about inventing new machines, but about deciding which energy is made cheaper and which is left behind. And today, in Europe, that decision continues to be reflected—very clearly—in the invoice. Image | freepik Xataka | While the US and China dominate different sectors, Europe leads an unexpected leadership: heat pumps

We have found the oldest genetic evidence of incest in Europe. And it’s a case of father and daughter

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When we talk about endogamy in the historical worldthe truth is that it is easy to think about the royal dynasties or in island populations that were on the verge of extinction. But the truth is that this type of practice dates back 4,000 years, since it was only now that a team of researchers has found the first irrefutable biological proof of a sexual union. between a father and his own daughter in European prehistory. The study. Although it may seem crazy, the fact that a father and his own daughter were united beyond the family bond, the reality is very different. The research published in Communications Biology has reached this conclusion after analyzing some remains from a Bronze Age community in Calabria. The discovered. The finding focuses on the Grotta della Monacaan archaeological site in southern Italy used for both mining and burials during the Bronze Age (between 1780 and 1380 BC). There, archaeologists recovered remains of several individuals, but two of them powerfully called the attention of geneticists when analyzing your DNA. Specifically, an adult male with the code GMO022 and a pre-adolescent child with the code GMO007. The genetic material. It undoubtedly keeps a large number of secrets, and the fact that it is maintained over time to know all its details. By sequencing the genomes of these two subjects, the researchers They saw the kinship they had with great clarityand the subject with the number 22 was not only the father of the child. The analysis revealed that the child’s mother was also the daughter of subject 22. That is, child GMO007 was the result of a first-degree union between father and daughter. According to the researchers, led by paleogeneticists from the University of Bologna and the Max Planck Institute, this is the oldest evidence of this type of incest ever sequenced in Europe. Behind the discovery. How can researchers be so sure of this? The key is in a genetic measure called ROH or “homozygosity sections“To understand it, you have to know that when two parents are closely related, their offspring will inherit identical genetic blocks from both sides, and not different ones, as is normal in relationships with two genetically different people. The closer the relationship, the longer these blocks are. In the case of boy GMO007, researchers found unusually long stretches of identical DNA, occupying a massive portion of his genome. This through the computer modeling managed to rule out that it was a union between brothersand confirmed that the markers fit a father-daughter relationship. Habit? Without a doubt, it is the idea that can come to mind when seeing something that today can be a real aberration. In this way, looking for the reasons, it was seen that this community did not have a state of isolation that justified them having to procreate among their own relatives, since the population was about 5,000 individuals. In this way, there were many options available to not have to choose to have a father-daughter relationship. This leads the study authors to an important conclusion: this was not an accepted cultural practice. Unlike later Egyptian dynasties or the Incas, where royal incest was sacred, in this Bronze Age community the case of GMO007 appears to be a unique event. It wasn’t normal. In this way, it seems that this was a chance event or a violation of a taboo, which for some reason occurred in this family. The reasons are not known, but at that time it was not something accepted by social norms, despite talking about a community that was 3,700 years old. Its importance. Until now, evidence of first-degree incest (parent-child or full siblings) was almost non-existent in the European genetic registry outside of very specific cases. We had data on unions between siblings in Neanderthals or distant cases in the Irish Neolithic (Newgrange), but nothing so explicit between direct generations in this period. In this way, this study reminds us that the DNA of the oldest people even helps us see their most intimate details. Images | Sangharsh Lohakare In Xataka | They found a cube-shaped skull in Tamaulipas and thought it was a migrant. Science has turned history upside down

Europe has finally approved how to help Ukraine. The great paradox is that the most unexpected vote has been imposed: that of Russia

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Europe has finally closed an agreement to guarantee financing for Ukraine for the next two years through a loan of 90,000 million of euros backed by the common budget of the Union, a decision taken after more than 16 hours of negotiations in Brussels and under explicit pressure to avoid a financial collapse of kyiv at the beginning of 2026. In the background, a crystal clear idea: Russia has imposed its “vote”. The lifeguard and a pulse. The pact comes at a particularly delicate moment, with the United States and Russia advancing conversations parallels about a possible end to the war and with Trump publicly urging Ukraine to accept a quick agreement. For European leaders, the loan is not just an economic instrument, but a way to reaffirm that the EU wants and needs to have its own voice in any outcome of the most serious conflict experienced on the continent in the last eight decades. The political message is clear: Europe cannot stand by while others decide the future of Ukraine and, by extension, its own security. The failure of the ideal plan. For months, Brussels’ preferred option was to use the fences of 210,000 million euros in Russian sovereign assets frozen in Europe as collateral for a large “reparations” loan for Ukraine, a formula that made it possible to finance the war effort and the functioning of the Ukrainian state without directly resorting to European taxpayers’ money. The idea was powerful, both economically as symbolically: that Russia would pay, at least indirectly, for the destruction caused by its invasion. However, the plan fell apart at the last moment, a victim of the legal, financial and political risks involved in touching that capital, above all and as we told yesterdayfor a handful of countries. Russia, in fact, has already initiated legal action denouncing an illegal confiscation, and fear of economic or judicial reprisals grew as the decisive summit approached. Bucha and the passing of the war A pragmatic agreement. Faced with the impossibility of closing ranks around the use of frozen assets, France and Italy led a more pragmatic alternative: use the common EU budget to issue debt on the markets and channel the funds to Ukraine. The result is a two year loan which guarantees immediate liquidity to kyiv, although it is more expensive and less scalable than the original option. To achieve consensus, a complex political architecture was also accepted: Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic will not assume obligations direct financial measures, a key condition to avoid an internal blockage. Still, the agreement was presented as a minimal but necessary victory. Ukraine gets the money it needs to survive and Europe avoids a picture of total paralysis at a critical moment. The resilience narrative. From kyiv, Zelenskiy celebrated the agreement as a real reinforcement of Ukrainian resilience, underscoring both the arrival of funds and the fact that Russian assets remain tied up. For the Ukrainian president, the combination it is essential: short-term financial security and sustained strategic pressure on Moscow. Zelenskiy had defended the use of frozen assets until the last moment, appealing to moral, legal and historical justice criteria, but he accepted the compromise. like a lesser evil facing the existential risk of running out of resources. The EU, for its part, insists that Ukraine will only have to repay the loan when Russia pays reparationsa formula that keeps the narrative of Russian responsibility alive without yet crossing the line of direct confiscation. Belgium and type C accounts. It we explained yesterday. In the background of the agreement there was a key actor: Belgium. Most of the Russian money frozen in Europe is there, guarded through critical financial infrastructure like Euroclear and linked to mechanisms such as called type C accountsdesigned precisely to immobilize assets without transferring ownership. Brussels demanded “unlimited” guarantees against possible Russian demands and retaliation, a level of protection that the rest of the partners were not willing to assume. The final result, although presented as a European commitment, essentially coincides with what was best for Moscow: that its sovereign capital not be confiscated or used as direct collateral. Russia loses access to the money, but retains the fundamental principle that these funds remain formally its own, avoiding a far-reaching legal precedent. If you also want, indirectly, Europe has chosen the safest path for itself and, at the same time, the least disruptive for the Kremlin. Europe and its limitations. So things are, the agreement leaves an ambivalent feeling. On the one hand, it shows that the EU is capable of mobilizing massive resources to support Ukraine and prevent its financial collapse in the middle of the war. On the other hand, it exposes again structural limitations of the European project when it comes to quick and risky decisions in foreign policy and security. The plan based on Russian assets promised to be more forceful and transformative, and the loan backed by the common budget is more conservativeslower and more politically comfortable. In a context in which Washington presses for an agreement and Russia hopes to buy time, Europe has chosen legal stability and internal cohesion over a direct financial confrontation with Moscow. Ukraine thus receives the oxygen it needs. The strategic pulse, however, is far from resolved. Image | RawPixel In Xataka | Ukraine’s biggest problem is not Russia. There are three European countries trapped in a perverse mechanism: type C accounts In Xataka | A Soviet missile is destroying Ukraine’s helicopters. The paradox is that it is not from Russia: it comes from the West

While cars are becoming more expensive in Europe, they are only going down in China. The Government has had to take measures

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Despite how they are sweeping brands outside of Chinain its domestic market there is voracious competition among all car manufacturers, which has led to an uncontrolled discount trend. For this reason, China’s market regulator has published a draft of guidelines to regulate prices in the automobile industry, seeking to stop the destructive price war that has shaken the sector in recent years. The country’s major manufacturers, including BYD, Xpeng, Great Wall Motors, Chery and BAIC, have publicly expressed their support for these new rules. The origin of the problem. According to data Cited by Wang Xia, chairman of the Automobile Committee of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, more than 200 vehicle models recorded price reductions in the domestic market during 2024. In May, the situation worsened even more when leading manufacturers applied massive discounts that exceeded 50,000 yuan (about 6,300 euros), while some vehicles were sold for as little as 30,000 yuan. This spiral of cuts has forced some small manufacturers to leave the market and has deteriorated the profitability of the sector. What the guidelines propose. The document from the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), published on December 12 and open to public consultation until the 22nd of this month, establish clear requirements for both manufacturers and dealers. Manufacturers must set prices based on production costs and market conditions, respecting the price autonomy of distributors. On the other hand, according to the document, selling below the production cost with the aim of eliminating competitors or achieving a monopoly position is prohibited, as well as price-fixing agreements between manufacturers. Dealers, for their part, must show complete and transparent prices, without false price references or misleading discounts. The reaction of the industry. BYD, the world’s largest manufacturer of electric vehicles, issued an official statement committing to follow the guidelines and optimize their internal price management systems. Xpeng, Nio and other manufacturers released similar statements supporting both the pricing guidelines and other complementary regulations on financing that facilitates the change of vehicle by reducing penalties for early loan repayment. Between the lines. The word “involution” has appeared more than once and twice in China’s hectic domestic vehicle market. Therefore, the Government wants to confront this idea with this new series of price regulations. The authorities They had already tried to stop the price war in June, when they summoned the CEOs of the major electric vehicle manufacturers to warn them about the abusive cuts. However, prices continued to fall: according to account Bloomberg with data collected by China Auto Market, BYD’s average transaction price fell from 116,200 yuan in June to 108,100 yuan in October. The transition aims to be complicated, since according to Bloomberg, there is a persistent weakness in demand, especially in luxury combustion vehicles. The middle account In addition, there are already manufacturers adapting these measures, offering more equipment for the same price or selling large SUVs at the price of smaller models. And now what. Following the public consultation period, which ends on December 22, the guidelines are expected to be formalized and play a key role. November already showed signs of stabilization, with 19 models with price cuts compared to 26 the previous year, according to ChinaEVHome. It remains to be seen if these regulations end up alleviating two of the most serious problems of this industry in China: excess productive capacity and weak demand. Cover image | BYD In Xataka | When the United States handed over its entire electrical grid to Chinese devices it seemed like a good idea. Now you have a problem

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