China has done everything to stop its population bleeding. The result is the lowest birth rate since 1949
China has encountered an even more complex challenge than the real estate crisis, the trade war with the US or the future of Taiwan: the babies. As your birth rate deflates (leaving the number of newborns below the number of deaths) the Asian giant is becoming less and less “giant”, a trend that threatens to punish the nation’s economy. Beijing knows it and that is why it takes time deploying measures that seek to boost their demographics. The problem is that, despite his many efforts, he can’t hit the nail on the head. Your latest official data birth rates show a new setback. What has happened? That despite all its efforts, China has not been able to stop its demographic hemorrhage. This is how it reveals the last balance from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), which shows a scenario similar to that suffered by other nations (inside and outside Asia) shaken by demographic winter: fewer babies, more deaths and general population decline. In short: a country that continues to lose weight little by little and risks complying UN predictionswhich estimates that by 2100 China will have lost more than half of its population, remaining at the size it had in the late 1950s. What does the data say? That in 2025 the authorities counted 7.92 million of births, 17% less than the previous year. The data leaves two other negative readings: the first is that it suggests that the birth rate increase registered in 2024 was punctual and has not been consolidated over time. After that brief rebound (which some associate to the cultural influence of ‘Year of the Dragon’) the Chinese birth rate has resumed the negative curve that it has been drawing for years. The second negative reading is that the decrease in the number of births has in turn reduced the country’s birth rate, leaving it in 5.63 births per 1,000 people. This is a historic low. A fact that has not been seen since (at least) 1949, year of foundation of the People’s Republic of China. It is about the steepest drop birth rate for the last five years. As AP News recallsChinese authorities do not regularly publish their fertility rate, but their last estimate, from 2020, was 1.3 children per woman. Now that indicator would have dropped to 1. The data is far from the “replacement rate” (2.1), essential to keep a country’s population stable. Click on the image to go to the tweet. Are there more figures? Yes. And they are just as bad. Deaths increased, going from 10.93 million registered in 2024 to 11.31 in 2025. The result of this drop in birth rates and increase in deaths was a natural loss of population (the data does not allude to the migratory effect) that brings China even closer to the projections of the United Nations by the end of the century. The NBS balance sheet reflects the loss of some 3.39 million of Chinese, leaving the country’s total population at around 1,405 million. It is the fourth consecutive year in which the country sees its population reduced, which has caused China to no longer be the most populous nation on the planet: from 2023 that honor India boasts itwhich comfortably exceeds the 1.4 billion of people. Why is it important? Birth rate and census are more than just demographic variables. They also influence the future of the country. The size of the population is directly related, for example, to domestic consumption (key piece in the country’s economy) or the health of its workforce. The demographic winter threatens to subject China to the same social pressures as other countries in Asia and the West, only on a much larger scale. Right now the population over 60 years old represents 23%. If nothing changes, in 2035 that strip will add 400 million of people, just like the entire population of the US and Italy combined. The big question is how that will affect their pension system. At the moment the country already has increased the retirement age. How to change it? That is the other reason why the NBS data is so important and has probably fallen like a bucket of cold water on Beijing. It’s not just about fewer babies being born and population being lost, it’s that the Government has been looking for a way to avoid it for some time… without success, at least until now. As far as birth rates are concerned, it seems to have hit the same rock as other neighboring nations that face a similar challenge, like japan either South Korea. What have you tried? Of everything. And without much success. Despite the billions of dollars invested in child care programs, the facilities offered to those considering becoming parents (from subsidies to medical attention) and efforts to form new couplesthe birth rate continues without increasing. And the Chinese authorities have gone to the extreme of go door to door encouraging women to be mothers. The reason? Beyond the influence of ‘one child’ policy (abandoned a decade ago) there are those who point to cultural changes and the high cost that (despite everything) parenthood entails in China. A 2024 report from the YuWan Population Research Institute in fact concluded that China is one of the most expensive places to raise children (especially if we talk about cities), even more than in Japan or the United States in relative terms. The study addressed both direct and opportunity costs. Image | Peijia Li (Unsplash) In Xataka | China knows that its population is going to collapse but it already has a long-term plan to solve it. Of course, thanks to AI