“Six. Four. Zero. Nine.” A mysterious radio has been repeating numbers in Iran since the start of the war, and no one knows why

The short waves They were for decades one of the strangest territories on the radio planet: anyone with a cheap radio could hear metallic voices reciting meaningless numbers, repetitive melodies or absurd phrases that seemed straight out of a spy movie. During the Cold War, thousands of radio amateurs recorded these emissions mysterious things spread all over the world, many of them active for years without anyone officially knowing who was behind them. Some disappeared after the fall of the Soviet bloc. Others, surprisingly, they never left altogether. A voice in the middle of the war. I told the story this morning the financial times and begins shortly after the United States and Israel They will start their attacks against Iran on February 28. Then a sound began to be heard strange transmission on short wave directed at the country: a male voice in Persian that bursts through the static repeating “Tavajjoh” (attention) three times before reciting long sequences of numbers with an almost mechanical cadence. The emissions, detected by radio amateurs and signal trackers, apparently come from somewhere in Western Europe and are repeated twice a day for about an hour and a half. Although its exact origin has not been confirmed, former US intelligence officials consider it very likely that it is a emergency communication system to maintain contact with agents inside Iran at an especially sensitive time, when the war has raised the risks for any informant and the Iranian government has restricted access to the internet and other international communications. What the V32 station really is. The mysterious emission has been identified by observers like V32a call “number station”a type of shortwave transmission historically used by intelligence agencies to send encrypted orders to spies on the ground. The system works in an extremely simple way: the agent only needs a radio and a code book (the so-called one-time pads) to convert the figures heard into understandable messages. The station began broadcasting in Persian exactly coinciding with the start of the war and has already tried to be interfered with through electronic noises which probably come from Iranian jamming systems, but the mysterious voice has been limited to change frequency and continue with his reading of numbers. These types of broadcasts are almost impossible to completely neutralize, because anyone can tune in and because counterintelligence can only act if it detects a spy transcribing the message or if the operators make mistakes. The shadow of the Cold War. The pattern that this station follows is directly reminiscent of one of the most disturbing elements of 20th century espionage: the digital radios that proliferated during the cold war. For decades, services like the CIAthe KGB or the Stasi emitted metallic voices that recited numbers, letters or even melodies followed by coded sequences aimed at agents infiltrating enemy territory. These transmissions could heard around the world and yet its meaning was indecipherable to anyone who did not possess the proper key. Some stations became famous among radio amateurs for its peculiarities (childish voices, strange music or seemingly absurd phrases), but its logic was always the same: to offer an untraceable and extremely secure communication system. The method survived for decades because it was cheap, discreet and resistant even the most sophisticated espionage systems, and although the phenomenon decreased after the end of the Cold War never disappeared full. The Cold War Morse/Voice Generator is a machine that has been used in many well-known number stations Old, but it works. The reason why these stations continue to be useful in the 21st century is precisely their simplicity. If the internet goes down, if phones are tapped, or if digital communications are blocked, a simple shortwave radio still works and allows orders to be transmitted without leaving an electronic trace. For the secret services, it also offers additional benefits: The recipient can listen to the message in seconds, destroy their codebook immediately afterwards, and disappear without leaving any evidence. That simplicity makes even a single person well located can receive instructions capable of causing enormous consequences, from sabotage to more complex intelligence operations. By the way, messages are usually repeated several times to minimize the risk that the agent in question will have to expose himself for too long listening to the transmission. What could the mysterious voice be saying. Although they are all hypotheses and no one outside of their operators knows the real meaning of the sequences, former intelligence officials they point to several plausible possibilities. Emissions could serve to activate agents who remained waiting inside Iran, order evacuations to meeting points or even coordinate operations covered up during the conflict. There is also another more strategic interpretation: that the station is deliberately designed to sow doubts within Iranian counterintelligence, suggesting that there are high-level infiltrators awaiting instructions from the West. In that case, even without transmitting specific orders, the very existence of the station would force Tehran to mobilize cryptographers, researchers and resources to try to decipher a message that may never be understood. Weird, but still alive. Number stations are one of the few times when the normally invisible work of intelligence services becomes audible for anyone with a radio. Although they are much less common today than during the confrontation between blocs of the 20th century, they still there are transmissions regulars associated with countries such as Russia, Poland, Taiwan or North Korea. Some even preserve an almost ceremonial style, such as the Taiwanese station known as New Star Broadcastingwhich begins with a flute melody and ends by wishing “health and happiness” to its listeners before issuing coded numbers intended for agents on extremely sensitive missions. Iran and the difficulty. For the United States, maintaining intelligence networks inside Iran has always been especially complicatedpartly because it does not have an embassy in the country and because the Iranian security apparatus is one of the most vigilant in the world. That forces Western services to retain emergency communication methods capable of working when all else fails. … Read more

The United Kingdom has opened the kamikaze drone that exploded at the European base. The surprise is capital: it is not from Iran, it is "made in Russia"

In Ukraine, the drone remains knocked down have converted in one unexpected source of strategic information: Engineers and analysts often rebuild their interior piece by piece to trace their origin, their electronics, and the supply networks that make them. IF you want, a kind of “military archeology” or “war unboxing” that has become common practice in modern conflicts, where a single microchip or a navigation module can reveal geopolitical connections much broader than a simple attack appears. The same thing just happened, but in Iran. A drone and a new unknown. When a kamikaze drone hit against the British air base of RAF Akrotiri, in Cyprus, seemed like another episode within the increasing escalation of drone attacks in the Middle East. However, analysis of the remains of the device by British intelligence has revealed an unexpected detail: inside there was a Russian military navigation system Kometa-Ba sophisticated component designed to resist electronic interference and improve the precision of attacks. The discovery surprised British researchers because the device had been launched by a Iran-aligned group from Lebanon, making the incident the first tangible evidence of Russian military technology used in an attack within the regional conflict. In Xataka Satellite images have revealed that Iran knocked down four of the US’s eight unique defense systems. If they reach zero a new war begins The track that connects two wars. The Kometa-B system is not just any component. It is about of a module which had already been detected in drones intercepted on the Ukrainian front, where Russia uses it to improve the navigation of its weapons against Western electronic warfare systems. Finding it inside a drone that ended up exploding in a European military base suggests that some of that technology has come out from the Ukrainian theater of war and has reached the military ecosystem surrounding Iran. That technical detail has opened a new line of concern among Western intelligence services: the possibility that Moscow is providing equipment, electronics or technical knowledge that is increasing the effectiveness of Iranian attacks and those of its regional allies. An alliance that is becoming closer. The discovery fits within a strategic relationship which has been deepening since the start of the war in Ukraine. During the early years of the conflict, Iran provided Russia with technology to make drones of Iranian design (especially variants of the Shahed model) that Moscow has used massively against Ukrainian infrastructure. Over time, Russia began to produce their own versions already introduce improvements electronics and navigation. Now the indications are that some of that cooperation could have been invested: Components or systems developed in the Russian military industry would appear in weapons used by militias aligned with Tehran on other fronts. {“videoId”:”x89xg5y”,”autoplay”:false,”title”:”American aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford – CVN 78″, “tag”:”Ships”, “duration”:”145″} Russian intelligence in the shadows. He discovery of the drone It also coincides with information from Western officials who claim that Moscow has been providing Iran with intelligence information on US military positions in the Middle East, including the location of warships and aircraft. I counted the weekend in an exclusive the Washington Post that such support could explain the increasing precision of some recent attacks against Western military infrastructure and radar systems. Iran has limited space capabilities, with very few of its own satellites, so access to data from Russian observation systems would be a significant advantage for planning more selective attacks. In 3D Games Children under 5 years old in 2026 will never have to work, according to Vinod Khosla. This is what the great era of AI abundance has in store for us Regional conflict with echoes of global war. If you also want, the appearance Russian technology in an attack against a British base suggests that the war in the Middle East could be becoming increasingly intertwined with the strategic confrontation that already exists between Russia and the West since 2022. For Moscow, an escalation that keeps the United States and Europe focused on another front may have strategic advantagesfrom the distraction over Ukraine to the rise in oil prices. Although the Kremlin has avoided getting directly involved in the war, and even Trump maintained in the last hours a first conversation telephone with Putin, the presence of your technology on the battlefield and suspicions about intelligence sharing point to a familiar pattern of indirect conflict: a scenario in which great powers do not fight each other openly, but their weapons, their data and their influence begin to appear in increasingly unexpected places and uncomfortable. Image | National Police of UkraineRAF/MOD In Xataka | The US has begun to take on one last suicidal mission: enter Iran to remove a 441 kg buried “treasure” that gives meaning to the war In Xataka | The war in Iran has confirmed what was sensed in Ukraine: battles are won long before the first missile is launched (function() { window._JS_MODULES = window._JS_MODULES || {}; var headElement = document.getElementsByTagName(‘head’)(0); if (_JS_MODULES.instagram) { var instagramScript = document.createElement(‘script’); instagramScript.src=”https://platform.instagram.com/en_US/embeds.js”; instagramScript.async = true; instagramScript.defer = true; headElement.appendChild(instagramScript); – The news The United Kingdom has opened the kamikaze drone that exploded at the European base. The surprise is capital: it is not from Iran, it is “made in Russia” was originally published in Xataka by Miguel Jorge .

The Iran war is making the best possible advertisement for Chinese renewables. And China knows it

Oil has skyrocketed again. Brent has crossed 90 dollars, WTI is around 87, and the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil transits, has reduced its traffic from 138 ships a day to just two. The most interesting thing here is not the price of crude oil but who wins when that happens. Why is it important. Each shock oil is, for China, a free advertisement on a planetary scale of its energy value proposition. Solar panels, electric cars and batteries do not rise in price when there is a war in the Persian Gulf. Natural gas and gasoline, yes. For countries that have been buying Chinese clean technology for years, this week has been the practical demonstration that they got it right. For those who have not yet done so, it is the best sales argument that China could wish for, and on top of that it has not involved a direct expense. The contrast. The US economy is structurally more vulnerable to the shocks of oil than China. The oil intensity of US GDP, that is, how much oil is needed to generate each dollar of economic activity, is notably higher than that of China, the EU or Russia. When crude oil soars, the blow is felt harder by the American consumer, who fills the tank of his car with gasoline, than by the Chinese consumer, whose fleet of vehicles is already almost 50% electric in new sales. In November 2025, electric cars They exceeded 60% of total sales in China. It is not a country in energy transition: it is a country that has already changed fuel in its largest vehicle fleet. And that is without counting the traffic of motorcycles, all electric for many years in several of its large cities, and with much greater volume than in other countries. Between the lines. China produces more than twice as many solar panels as the world is capable of absorbingand its batteries and electric cars are already reaching Western Europe, the Middle East and Latin America. When oil rises, the economic equation for those exports improves automatically, without your government having to lift a finger. An energy crisis in the Gulf acts as an indirect subsidy to its clean industries: it makes everything China sells more attractive and everything it doesn’t sell more expensive. In figures. The clean energy sector already represents 11.4% of Chinese GDP, according to The analysis published by Carbon Brief last month. Without those industries, China would have grown 3.5% in 2025 instead of the 5% recorded. Electric cars and batteries explain 44% of the economic impact of that sector. China installed 315 GW of solar and 119 GW of wind in 2025, more than the rest of the world combined in both categories. Yes, but. China also imports oil, a lot. It remains one of the world’s largest buyers of crude oil, and the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz complicates its short-term supply. In fact, in recent weeks China has increased its oil imports by almost 16% due to uncertainty. That said, In September it already began to make an unusual collection. What changes the long-term equation is not that China is immune to the shocks oil producers, but each crisis accelerates the internal conversion towards renewables and reinforces the export argument against third countries. It is a temporary pain that finances a structural advantage. Furthermore, this scenario leaves a question in the air: whether the world, by purchasing Chinese clean technology, is ultimately exchanging an energy dependency for a technological dependency. In both the United States and Europe this will end up becoming a question as uncomfortable as it is inevitable. In Xataka | On the roof of the world, China is building the largest solar park on the planet Featured image | Nuno Marques

enter Iran to remove a buried “treasure” of 441 kg that gives meaning to the war

Since 1921 when the Italian general Giulio Douhet argued that bombers could win wars by destroying the “vital centers” of a country, air power has fascinated strategists and politicians. However, more than a century of conflict has left a lingering paradox: even the most devastating bombing campaigns in history have, sooner or later, required something much riskier than airplanes to truly decide a war. Especially if, as in almost all wars, one seeks to give meaning to the nonsense. The historical limit. They told it this morning in a special report from the Wall Street Journal. The war started with intense bombing campaign on Iran has once again put on the table an uncomfortable lesson from military history: planes, missiles and bombs can destroy infrastructure, armies and arsenals, but they rarely bring down a regime on their own. Despite the wishes expressed in Washington to bring about political change in Tehran, the military commanders themselves have lowered expectations and they have insisted that the real objective of the campaign is to degrade Iranian offensive capabilities, whether missiles, drones or naval forces, and to wear down its nuclear program. The reason is simple. Even after weeks of attacks, the power structures of the Iranian state they are still intactbacked by military and paramilitary forces that number hundreds of thousands of troops and whose main interest is to maintain the system as it is. Nor does historical precedent help support the idea that strategic bombing alone can decide a war: neither World War II, nor Kosovo, nor Libya. they managed to change governments only from the air. In all cases there were forces on the ground, local insurgencies or invasions that ended up tipping the balance. Members of the US Army using nuclear material detection tools during an exercise No main objective. That air power limit has a immediate strategic consequence: Although the bombings may reduce Iran’s military capacity, they do not guarantee that what gave rise to the conflict will disappear, if there ever was something tangible. The central official concern remains nuclear material that the country has accumulated for years and that represents a latent option to manufacture atomic weapons in a short time. The air campaign can destroy facilities, seal access or delay the program, but it cannot guarantee anything much more complicated: locate, control and neutralize fissile material that already exists. The dilemma is especially serious if the regime survives the conflict or if the Iranian State enters a phase of internal chaos, because that scenario would open the door for some of that material to end up in the hands of regional militias, non-state actors or even black market networks. In other words, war can weaken the adversary without solving the problem that caused it. U.S. Army Soldiers with the 128th Chemical Company, 337th Engineer Battalion conduct reconnaissance in an underground tunnel during an exercise in Lithuania in 2025 The buried “treasure” that gives meaning to war. At the center of this dilemma is a specific piece of information that summarizes all the strategic tension: some 441 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, enough to produce material for various nuclear weapons if taken to levels of military purity. This material, stored mainly in underground facilities deeply protected, is the true objective that explains the military campaign. As long as it exists and remains out of control, any aerial victory will be incomplete. The paradox is that this nuclear “treasure” is designed precisely to withstand the type of war that the United States and Israel have been fighting: buried facilities, protected by layers of concrete and rock, designed to survive bombings. Destroying buildings is relatively easy, but destroying or capture nuclear material stored underground is another story entirely. The last mission: enter Iran. Thus we come to a stage which is closer than ever to the rhetoric that the United States has tried to inoculate the planet through a species trailer hollywood. Because an idea has begun to appear that until recently seemed extreme: the possibility of a ground raid of special forces to physically seize Iranian nuclear material or neutralize it in situ. The reasoning is brutally simple. If bombing cannot guarantee control of the enriched uranium, someone will have to go looking for it. They counted the TWZ analysts that, in American strategic circles, there is talk of operations in which elite commandos would penetrate facilities underground, they would secure the material and decide on the spot whether to transport it out of the country or reduce its purity to make it unusable. There is no doubt, it would be a extremely complex operationalmost movie makerwhich would combine special forces, nuclear experts and possibly specialized technical personnel, with the aim of securing material that cannot simply be destroyed with explosives without causing radiological risks. Possible, but almost suicidal. The problem is that such a mission would be one of the military operations riskiest imaginable. The material weighs hundreds of kilos and it is probably stored in armored containers, which would greatly complicate its transportation. The facilities are buried, protected and defended by forces that consider these facilities one of the country’s most important strategic assets. To access them it may be necessary open tunnels or remove tons of earth and concrete as the Iranian army tries to react. The longer the assault force remains on the ground, the more likely the Iranian forces will organize a counterattack with artillery, missiles or ground units. Added to this is the difficulty of infiltrating and extracting a relatively large contingent of operators loaded with specialized equipment in the middle of an open conflict. The logic that moves it. Despite everything, strategic logic pushes towards that direction. If nuclear material is dispersed, hidden, or moved to multiple locations, the problem will multiply and any attempt to neutralize it will be even more difficult. Furthermore, bombing convoys or depots from the air could disperse radioactive material without eliminating the threat. In that context, physically securing uranium becomes the solution to … Read more

If an all-out war breaks out between the US and Iran, the ultimate weapon will be desalination plants

The whole world holds its breath looking at the same point on the map: the Strait of Hormuz. With markets trembling at the possibility of a barrel of oil breaking the $100 barrier and exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) paralyzing, the global narrative has turned this conflict into a purely energy crisis. But the reality is much more primary and terrifying. As the analyst Javier Blas warns in a forceful report for Bloombergthe real threat in the military escalation between the coalition led by the United States and Israel against Iran lies not in the oil wells, but in thirst. Oil, Blas points out, is essential for the global economy, but water is simply irreplaceable. If total war breaks out, the definitive weapon will not be energy, but biological survival. This vulnerability is not a secret. As the analyst himself revealsthe American CIA has been warning its policymakers about this matter for decades. In a secret evaluation in the early 1980s —now declassified—, the intelligence agency made it clear that the true “strategic product” (strategic commodity) of the Middle East is not black gold, but drinking water. Unable to engage in a head-on, symmetrical clash with the combined war machine of the United States and Israel, Iran has adopted a survival strategy based on attacking what are known in military jargon as “soft targets.” And they have already started. As detailed in another report by BloombergIran recently attacked a power plant in Fujairah, in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which is responsible for keeping one of the largest desalination plants in the world in operation. In neighboring Kuwait, debris from an intercepted drone caused a fire at another of its water facilities in Doha West. The offense doesn’t stop there. As we have explained in Xatakathe Saudi Ras Tanura refinery was hit by Iranian drones twice in a single week. The truly alarming thing is that this refinery is only 80 kilometers from Ras Al Khairthe largest hybrid desalination complex on the planet. The risk is physical and mathematical: attacks on the port of Jebel Ali in Dubai fell just 20 kilometers from a critical complex with 43 desalination units, according to Michael Christopher Low in The Conversation. The level of aggressiveness is overwhelming the region. The UAE have already faced more than 800 missile and drone attacks (exceeding in volume those received by Israel). Although most are intercepted, the impacts have caused fires in the Burj Al Arab and have damaged data centers of Amazon Web Services (AWS) in UAE and Bahrain. This last point is critical: As experts warn Chosun Dailythese data centers digitally manage the energy and water distribution network; A digital blackout is equivalent to a physical power outage. Survival hangs by a thread for 72 hours The region’s monarchies are “saltwater kingdoms,” How do you define them? The Conversation. Eight of the ten largest desalination plants in the world are in the Arabian Peninsula, concentrating 60% of global capacity. The population’s dependence on this technology, according to data from W.G.I. Worldis absolute: Kuwait: 90% of its drinking water comes from desalination. Oman: 86%. Saudi Arabia: 70%. United Arab Emirates: 42% (almost 100% in metropolises like Dubai). If Iran decides to target these plants, human collapse would be devastating. A great report of House of Saudbased on a 2008 US diplomatic cable leaked by WikiLeaksreveals a terrifying scenario about Riyadh. The Saudi capital, with more than 8 million inhabitants, receives more than 90% of its drinking water from the Jubail plant through a single 500 kilometer pipeline. The report is blunt: if the plant or its pipeline were destroyed, “Riyadh would have to be evacuated within a week.” There is not even room to improvise. As an analysis in Iran InternationalQatar admitted that, in a scenario of massive water pollution, the country estimated to run out of drinking water in just three days, which forced them to build 15 giant emergency reservoirs. However, as researcher Bailey Schwab points out in WGI Worldwater cannot be politically rationed for long in cities that depend on the State to survive extreme temperatures. The energy-water nexus: the asymmetric calculation The system’s vulnerability is asymmetric and deeply technical. As explained by the analysis of House of Sauddesalination plants consume massive amounts of electricity (they represent almost 6% of total consumption in Saudi Arabia) and are co-located with mega power plants. If a missile takes down the power plant, the water supply dies instantly with it. Additionally, there is an unsustainable gap in recovery times. While an oil refinery can restore part of its production in a couple of weeks (as happened after the attack on Abqaiq in 2019), as Bailey Schwab warns, the components of a reverse osmosis plant are extremely high-precision parts that, if destroyed, would take months to replace. And defending this is economically unsustainable. Iran is using Shahed-136 droneswhich cost between $15,000 and $50,000 per unit. Opposite, the monumental Ras Al Khair plant cost 7.2 billion dollars and sits just 250 kilometers from the Iranian coast. It is a trivial flight for drones that have a range of 2,500 kilometers. As if that were not enough, this vulnerability drags food security down with it. There is one fact that goes unnoticed in the economic press: 70% of food imports of the GCC transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia imports almost 80% of its food (wheat, corn and barley) by sea. With marine insurers canceling war risk policies for merchant ships, Gulf countries not only face dying of thirst, but also food isolation. The paradox: Iran, a country drowned by its own drought If the situation in the Gulf is critical, that of the aggressor country is equally desperate, although for different reasons. An analysis by Fred Pearce in Yale Environment 360 (Yale E360) details that Iran faces its own “water bankruptcy.” The crisis has reached such a point that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warned last November that the country “has no choice” but to … Read more

Iran has spent decades excavating its “missile cities.” Satellite images have just revealed that they are a death trap

For years, Iran has shown the world tunnel videos endless tunnels dug under mountains, with military trucks circulating between missiles lined up as if they were cars in an underground subway. It was understood that many of these facilities extend kilometers underground and are part of one of the military fortification programs. most ambitious in the Middle East. What almost no one knew until now is to what extent this gigantic hidden labyrinth could become a key piece of the current conflict. The cities, but with missiles. Yes, for decades, Iran has excavated an extensive underground base network known as “missile cities”, complexes hidden under mountains and hills intended to protect its enormous ballistic arsenal against air attacks and guarantee the regime’s retaliation capacity even in the event of open war. There are numerous videos Officials released in recent years where we could see long tunnels illuminated by artificial lights, windowless corridors and convoys of trucks loaded with missiles ready to move to the surface, an entire military architecture designed to hide thousands of short and medium range projectiles away from spy satellites and enemy bombers. Some installations even incorporate silos dug into the rock or mechanical systems on rails to move missiles within underground galleries, a perfectly assembled choreography reflecting a strategic project conceived to ensure arsenal survival Iranian in a protracted conflict. The images that reveal the paradox. However, the war has begun to show the unexpected reverse of that strategy. Recent images from space have revealed Smoldering remains of destroyed launchers and missiles near the entrances to several underground complexes, a sign that systems hidden underground are becoming extremely vulnerable at the moment when they must go outside to shoot. It makes sense. American and Israeli surveillance planes, armed drones and fighters They patrol constantly over the areas where these facilities are located, observing the entrances to the tunnels and attacking the launchers as soon as they appear on nearby roads or canyons. In other words, what for years was a system designed to hide mobile weapons It thus becomes a relatively predictable pattern: tunnel entrances, exit roads and deployment areas that can be monitored from the air and destroyed as soon as activity is detected. From strategic refuge to death trap. They remembered in the wall street journal A few hours ago this change has revealed a structural problem in the very concept of missile cities. Underground complexes are very difficult to destroy from the air, but they are also fixed installations whose location is known by Western intelligence services. In practice, this means that much of the arsenal remains stored in specific places while enemy planes continually fly over the airspace, waiting for the moment when the launchers come out to act. Many military analysts summarize the dilemma in a simple way: What was previously a mobile and difficult to locate system is now concentrated in fixed points, which facilitates its surveillance and reduces its capacity for surprise. Commercial satellite images themselves show destroyed launchers As soon as they left the mouths of the tunnels, fires were caused by leaked fuel and access to facilities bombed with heavy ammunition. Missile base north of Tabriz in Iran. The image on the left belongs to February 23, the one on the right from March 1 after the first attacks The air offensive against underground infrastructure. As the first week of war approaches, the military campaign has begun to focus increasingly on these infrastructures. They told Reuters that the first phase of the attacks focused on destroying visible launchers and surface systems capable of firing at Israel or US bases in the region, while the second stage aims straight to the bunkers and buried warehouses where missiles and equipment are stored. Israeli aviation, with American support, has attacked hundreds of positions and has managed to drastically reduce the number of launches, while an almost constant air offensive that hits targets continues. both in Iran and Lebanon during the same missions. The stated objective is to progressively degrade Iran’s ability to launch ballistic missiles and drones until it is completely neutralized. Missile base north of Kermanshah in Iran. The image on the left belongs to February 28, on the right it belongs to March 3 A gigantic arsenal underground. The actual scope of these facilities remains difficult to determine. There are military estimates that place the Iranian arsenal before the war between about 2,500 and up to 6,000 missilesstored in different facilities throughout the country, many of them excavated under mountains or in remote areas of the territory. Despite the attacks, Iran has managed to launch more than 500 missiles against Israel, US bases and targets in the Gulf since the start of the conflict, although many have been intercepted and the pace of salvos has decreased rapidly. That drop suggests that attacks on launchers and storage centers are beginning to erode the country’s ability to respond. The strategic dilemma. The result is a strategic paradox that is just beginning to become visible. Missile cities were designed to protect the core of Iranian military power and ensure its ability to retaliate, but in a scenario where the enemy dominate the air and watch constantly the entrances to these complexes can become choke points for the arsenal itself. Iran has spent decades excavating these underground bases with the intention of making its missiles invisible. But satellite images of the war are showing something very different: that this labyrinth of tunnels, designed as a shelter, can become one of its greatest vulnerabilities when the launchers are forced to surface under the look constant flow of planes, drones and satellites. Image | X, Planet Labs In Xataka | We had seen everything in Ukraine, but this is new: neither drones nor missiles, bulldozers have reached the front In Xataka | You’ve probably never heard of urea. The missiles in Iran are destroying their production, and that will affect your food

the fear of living in 1973 again because of the war in Iran

Just enter the tracking platform Marine Traffic to understand the magnitude of the paralysis. Dozens of red dots, representing colossal merchant ships, crowd motionless off the coasts of Oman and the United Arab Emirates. The steel giants do not dare to cross a strip of water that, at its narrowest point, barely measures 33 kilometers. The Strait of Hormuz It is the main energy artery of the planet. A fifth of the world’s oil – some 20.9 million barrels per day – and a vital percentage of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) sail through its waters daily. Today, that step is de facto blocked. Half a century later, an atavistic terror has awakened in Western capitals: the fear of reliving the energy collapse and rampant inflation of 1973. The spark that set the markets on fire jumped after a war escalation unprecedented in the Middle East, triggered by the attacks by the United States and Israel that culminated in the assassination of the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Tehran’s response has not been long in coming: a rain of drones and missiles on American allies and trade routes that has caused a blockade de facto of the Strait of Hormuz. The crisis broke out after an unprecedented escalation of war in the Middle East. The offensive by the United States and Israel (named “Operation Epic Fury”), which culminated in the assassination of the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sparked a quick response from Tehran: a rain of drones and missiles on American allies and strategic infrastructure in the Gulf. The physical consequences have been immediate. An Iranian drone attack forced to paralyze the Ras Laffan facilities in Qatar, the largest LNG export plant in the world, and forced Saudi Arabia to temporarily close units of its gigantic Ras Tanura refinery. The violence has directly reached the water: the British agency UKMTO reported the attack on an oil tanker near Oman, leaving several injured, and the energy expert Javier Blas warned of the explosion of another ship anchored off the coast of Kuwait, causing an oil spill into the sea. Given this panorama, transport giants such as Maersk or MSC They have ordered their fleets seek refuge. The panic has rewritten logistics rates: the cost of leasing a supertanker (VLCC) has shot up by 600%, hovering around $200,000 a day, while insurers have increased war risk premiums by up to 50%, as Alex Longley warns in Bloomberg. The echoes of the past are terrifying. Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee, warns in Fortune that a prolonged closure of Hormuz could have an impact “three times the scale of the energy crisis we saw in the 1970s.” What could happen if the tanks overflow The problem with ships not sailing is not only that the oil does not reach its destination, it is that it accumulates at the point of origin. The industry is facing a logistical collapse due to lack of physical storage. Iraq has been the first major victim of this logistical collapse. As you have detailed OilPricethe country has had to begin to turn off the tap on gigantic fields such as Rumaila (the largest in the world), withdrawing about 1.5 million barrels a day from the market, a figure that could double if the crisis persists. According to sources from the commercial sector in Financial TimesIf the blockade continues, Kuwait will be the next to give up in a matter of days, followed by the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia, thanks to its immense storage capacity, could last between two and four weeks before being forced to cut its extraction. Financial markets reflect absolute short-term stress. As analyst John Kemp’s charts illustrateBrent crude oil futures have entered a backwardation extreme, with a difference of almost 11 dollars per barrel between short- and long-term contracts, placing it in the 98th-99th percentile in history. This signals an acute and immediate shortage of barrels, especially for refiners in Asia, which have already begun to cut back on operations. If this funnel continues for three months, the unwritten rule of firms like Goldman Sachs suggests that crude oil could become more expensive by an additional $40, turning the barrier of $100 per barrel in the new normal. The differences with 1973 Despite the drama and the fact that a barrel quickly exceeded $80, the macroeconomic scenario is not a carbon copy of the Arab embargo. Global resilience has changed: The new oil sheriff: Today, the US economy depends much less on crude oil to generate wealth (barely 0.4% of GDP compared to 1.5% in 1979). Furthermore, the American country is now the world’s largest producer of oil, which protects it from supply shocks, as pointed out Fortune. The “Myopia of Hormuz”: Mukesh Sahdev, Chief Analyst at XAnalysts, points in Fortune that the market is overreacting. The main objective of the US (neutralizing the Iranian leadership) has already been met, and Donald Trump himself has suggested that the military campaign could be short, which would limit the long-term impact. Alternative routes to rescue: Saudi Arabia has a colossal lifeline. Your pipeline East-Westwhich connects the eastern fields with the Red Sea, has the capacity to pump about 7 million barrels per day, bypassing Hormuz. There are already signs that Riyadh is redirecting flows this way, as Blas explains. For its part, Iraq has managed to resume a modest flow of 50,000 barrels per day to Türkiye after a brief pause, as the analyst collects Bachar El-Halabi. Safety mattresses: Global onshore reserves reach 2 billion barrels, enough to weather the initial storm. For its part, the Trump Administration has tried to calm the markets by promising Navy naval escorts and state insurance of up to $1 billion per ship through the International Development Finance Corporation (DFC). However, this is not a magic solution. As they warn in the sectorcaptains are the ones who decide to set sail, and sailing surrounded by US military destroyers often makes them more attractive … Read more

You’ve probably never heard of urea. The missiles in Iran are destroying their production, and that will affect your food

At the beginning of the 20th century, the world feared it would run out of food because crops were not growing enough to feed a growing population. The solution came from chemistry: an industrial process capable of manufacturing artificial nutrients for plants and multiplying crops across the planet. Today, this invisible system supports much of what reaches our plates, but it also depends on a global chain. surprisingly fragile. The invisible substance that feeds us. We already said it in the headline, you may not know urea. However, this chemical compound is one of the silent pillars of modern agriculture. It is nitrogen fertilizer most used in the world and indirectly responsible for approximately half of global food production. Its function is simple but crucial: providing nitrogen to crops so they can grow quickly and produce larger harvests. To give us an idea, approximately half of global food production depends on synthetic fertilizers. nitrogen basedand urea is the most widespread of all. Without it, agricultural yields would fall abruptly, which would directly affect products as basic as wheat, corn or rice. The Gulf and fertilizers. It happens that a large part of this global agricultural system depends on a very specific region of the planet: the Persian Gulf. The Middle East is home to some of the largest plants of fertilizer production in the world and is also a key source of raw materials necessary to manufacture them, such as ammonia or sulfur. Furthermore, the Strait of Hormuz has become an essential artery for this trade. between one quarter and a third of the world’s traffic of raw materials for fertilizers passes through this maritime passage, along with approximately 35% of global urea exports and 45% of sulfur trade. A war that hits the food chain. The military escalation in Iran and the attacks around the Strait of Hormuz are starting to interrupt that delicate system. Maritime traffic through the area has been drastically reduced and several ships have been attacked, while industrial facilities in the Gulf have suffered direct damage. In Qatar, one of the largest fertilizer facilities in the world had to stop your production after a drone attack, while Iran has paralyzed its own ammonia production. Every missile in the Iran war is not only destroying its production, it brings us a little closer to a dystopian future scenario. Urea sample in the form of granules The domino effect of urea. When the supply of fertilizers such as urea is interrupted, the impact soon spreads to the food system. If farmers cannot apply enough fertilizer, the ccrops produce less. Some experts estimate that the lack of fertilizers could reduce harvests by up to 50% in the first affected agricultural cycle. This decline would quickly translate in price increases in basic foods. Bread could become more expensive in a matter of weeks, while derived products such as eggs, chicken or pork would do so months later, as the increase in the cost of animal feed is passed on to the entire food chain. Gas, the hidden ingredient. The manufacture of nitrogen fertilizers also depends on another key factor: natural gas. Between 60% and 80% of the cost of producing fertilizers comes from the gas used in the chemical process that transforms atmospheric nitrogen into compounds usable by plants. With the war driving up energy prices and damaging industrial infrastructure, the cost of production skyrockets even before fertilizers reach the market. In a few days, the international price of urea has risen more than 25%reaching levels close to 625 dollars per ton. Risk of global food crisis. I remembered the financial times that the situation also comes at a particularly delicate moment in the agricultural calendar. In much of the northern hemisphere, farmers are starting the season spring planting, when they buy and apply the fertilizers that will determine the year’s crops. If the Strait of Hormuz disruption lasts more than a few weeks, the impact could extend far beyond energy or maritime trade. Thus, what today seems like a localized geopolitical crisis could transform into something much deeper: a global food shock reminiscent of (or even surpassing) the one that occurred after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In that scenario, the war in Iran would not only be fought with missiles and drones, but also in the fields of crops half the planet. Image | liz west, nara, LHcheM, eutrophication&hypoxia In Xataka | Iran is directing its attacks where it knows it hurts the West: energy and data centers In Xataka | In 2022, the gas crisis skyrocketed the price of electricity in Spain. In 2026 we have a “green shield” but also a serious problem

The Iran war has thrown a rug over Russia

In almost every modern war there is an unexpected object that ends up symbolizing the conflict. In the First World War were the trenchesin the Second the tanksand in Ukraine many thought that this role would be filled the drones. However, another much less sophisticated tool has appeared on the front that has become just as essential: a construction machine capable of moving tons of earth in a few hours and completely changing the way of surviving on the battlefield. Also a sign of the emergency situation. The shield that supports Ukraine. Since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022, Ukraine’s military survival has largely depended on an outer shield: the constant flow of weapons, technology and financing from from the United States and Europe. Patriot anti-aircraft systems, interceptor missiles, advanced drones and Western munitions allowed kyiv to resist to a much larger enemy and regain territory in the early stages of the war. Over time, this cooperation even evolved into a new industrial model in which European companies began manufacturing weapons based on Ukrainian technology, creating a production network that combined battlefield innovation with the industrial capacity of Western allies. Iran threatens the shield. That support system is now beginning to show cracks for an unexpected reason: open war between the United States, Israel and Iran. The new front in the Middle East has forced Washington to concentrate resources military, missiles and strategic attention in another crisis, generating fear in Europe and kyiv that Ukraine will be left in the background. They remembered in the Wall Street Journal that the same interceptors, munitions and systems that Ukraine needs to defend itself against Russian bombing are now being used in operations against Iran, and if the conflict drags on, the United States could be forced to prioritize replacement of their own arsenals rather than continue supplying kyiv. Change of priorities. The risk is not only military, but political. With the White House focused on the Middle East, European diplomats they fear that the momentum to maintain pressure on Russia will be diluted in a conflict that has already entered its fifth year. In fact, Washington had long reducing your involvement directly and pressing to find a negotiated solution, but a prolonged conflict with Iran could absorb even more resourcesattention and industrial capacity. For Ukraine, that scenario would mean confronting Russia with fewer defensive missiles, fewer components for its military industry, and a flow of aid. increasingly uncertain. Ukrainian soldier operating an excavator near the front Objective: dig. On the battlefield, this potential shortage is translating into increasingly rudimentary decisions. Drones dominate modern combat, but their effectiveness depends on something much older: the excavated ground. Defensive positions have become underground networks of trenches, shelters and tunnels designed to survive constant surveillance by drones, artillery and guided bombs. In an open field where any movement can be detected within minutes, survival depends on staying hidden underground and operate from fortified positions that withstand constant attacks. Excavators in front. In this regard, they had in a Forbes report that the arrival of the bulldozers is also the most fearsome signal for Ukraine, because the war in Iran is destroying the shield that prevented the invasion to Russia. In a conflict dominated by advanced technology, the most urgent element in many brigades is not a new weapons system, but construction machinery Able to dig through defenses quickly. Each battalion tries to achieve at least one excavator to build deep trenches, covered shelters and obstacle networks that channel Russian attacks into controlled fire zones. These machines replace weeks of manual work and allow us to build defenses that can save dozens of lives. Modern warfare underground. If you will also, the evolution of combat has turned fortifications into a complex infrastructure that integrates technology, electrical cables, charging stations and shelters for drones and ground robots. However, it all starts with the same basic task: move earth before the next attack comes. On a front where Russia launches hundreds of drones and missiles in a single night and where gliding bombs seek to breach defensive lines, it turns out that the speed of digging can decide whether a position survives or disappears. and that reality sums up the moment that Ukraine is experiencing: a modern war sustained by drones and algorithms, but whose last line of defense depends on what happens in another conflict…and in a yellow machine digging mud in the middle of the front. Image | Tonya Levchuk In Xataka | Shahed drones are spreading terror in the Gulf. Ukraine has offered the solution and the price to pay has a name In Xataka | The Russian military is so desperate for Internet access that Ukraine has used it to spring a death trap.

While everyone looks at Iran, China is building a nuclear “Great Wall”

Under the surface of the oceans one of the technological competitions is taking place quieter and more decisive of the planet. The nuclear submarines They can remain submerged for months, travel halfway around the world undetected and launch missiles from thousands of kilometers away. Therefore, each new advance under the sea usually anticipates much bigger changes in the global strategic balance. Washington’s alarm. While much of international attention is focused on the immediate conflicts in the Middle Eastanother much deeper strategic concern is beginning to take shape in Washington. Apparently, the US Navy commanders have warned before Congress that the military balance under the sea is changing rapidly and that China is accelerating a transformation process that could alter the global nuclear deterrent in the coming decades. The underwater race. we have been counting in recent months. China already owns one of the largest submarine fleets in the world and is expanding it at high speed thanks to massive investments in its military shipyards. Production has gone from less than one nuclear submarine a year to significantly higher rateswith forecasts that the fleet will reach around 70 units by the end of this decade and close to 80 by 2035. Although the United States still maintains a technological and operational advantage in submarine warfare, the rapid growth of Chinese industrial capacity is reducing that distance and forcing Washington to rethink the strategic balance in the Pacific. The transition to a nuclear fleet. One of the most important changes is structural. For decades, the Chinese submarine fleet has been based on diesel-electric vessels, which are cheaper, but have less autonomy and must surface frequently. Now Beijing is promoting a strategic shift towards more and more construction focused on nuclear submarinescapable of remaining submerged for long periods and operating at great distances from their bases. This change will allow the Chinese navy to project a presence beyond its immediate environment and complicate US naval operations. in the Pacific and other oceans. The new submarines. The technological leap will come with new generations of submarines that will begin to enter service between the end of this decade and the 1930s. Among them stand out the Type 095 models and, above all, the Type 096designed to transport nuclear ballistic missiles long range. We are talking about equipped boats with JL-4 missilessubmarines that will be able to attack large areas of US territory even operating from waters near China, much more protected by its naval and air defenses. Such a capability would significantly bolster the credibility of China’s nuclear deterrent and reduce the need to patrol more exposed areas of the Pacific. A network to protect the nuclear deterrent. Plus: the Chinese project is not limited to building more submarines. American commanders said that Beijing is developing an extensive sensor network on the seabed, surveillance cables, satellite-connected buoys and unmanned underwater vehicles capable of detecting movements in nearby oceans. This system, described by many analysts as an “underwater Great Wall,” would allow China monitor strategic routestrack foreign submarines, and protect its own nuclear fleet while patrolling in relatively safe waters. The strategic horizon of 2025 and 2040. The result of this transformation should be seen clearly in the next decade. As the number of nuclear submarines grows and this undersea sensor network is deployed, China could greatly expand its underwater presence. beyond the first chain of western Pacific islands. US forecasts suggest that, around 2040Chinese submarines could operate more frequently in the Indian Ocean, the Arctic and even the Atlantic. If this evolution is confirmed, the global naval balance could enter a new phase marked by a fearsome underwater competition between the two greatest powers on the planet. Image | Google Earth, SteKrueBe In Xataka | The US has always been the largest nuclear power on the planet. China has already surpassed it in something: submarines In Xataka | The new fear of Western fleets is not nuclear. They are conventional submarines armed with surprise and a flag: China

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