Iran

The war in Iran has given China an unprecedented opportunity. And she has just been transferred to Taiwan so she can think twice

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Taiwan is one of the most advanced economies in the world, yet it produces less than 5% of the energy it consumes. In just a few days, it can go from being a key center of global technology to depend completely of what happens thousands of kilometers from its coasts. And China has seen an opportunity. Energy as a geopolitical weapon. The war in the Middle East has triggered a chain reaction that goes far beyond the battlefield: with energy routes strained and the Strait of Hormuz turned into a global bottleneckcountries have set out to ensure supplies at any price. In this context of urgency, energy has ceased to be just an economic resource and has become a direct tool of political pressure, one capable of reconfiguring alliances, dependencies and strategic balances in a matter of weeks. The offer that changes the board. And it is precisely in that scenario where China has reformulated your proposal towards Taiwan with a much more pragmatic approach: instead of appealing so much to national identity, the offer is aimed at a concrete and urgent need, energy security. The idea? Beijing offers guaranteed access to stable, cheaper and less exposed resources to external crises in exchange for peaceful “reunification”presenting integration as a technical solution to a structural problem. The message leaves no room for doubt: under the umbrella of a “strong power,” the island could free yourself from uncertainty of global markets and their dependence on vulnerable maritime routes. Gas station in Taiwan A known vulnerability. The proposal is not coincidental, of course, but rather points directly to a critical weakness what was known: Taiwan almost all the energy matters that consumes and depends largely on supplies that pass through areas of high geopolitical risk. Beijing not only presents itself as an alternative supplier, but also suggests that this exposure can get worse if the conflict is prolonged, reinforcing the idea that the solution is to reduce this external dependence. At the same time, it proposes a future of energy integration (electrical networks, gas pipelines, interconnections) that would eliminate a large part of that vulnerability. Between seducing and pressuring. There is no doubt, this strategy of “energy persuasion” It does not replace the rest of the pressure tools that China has had active for a long time. It we have counted before, those military maneuvers around the island, the blockade drills and the constant presence of Chinese forces are part of an environment of sustained pressure that seeks to wear down without provoking open conflict. Under this scenario, the energy adds thus to a set of levers (military, economic and diplomatic) designed to progressively reduce Taiwan’s room for maneuver. Taiwanese rejection and calculation. Taiwan’s response remained to be known. Faced with the suggestive offer, the island has officially responded firmlyrefusing to exchange sovereignty for energy supply and defending that it has sufficient reserves and diversified sources, especially with the support of the United States. As analysts point out, beyond the technical feasibility of the Chinese proposal, the problem is more credibility: The Hong Kong experience has eroded confidence in the model of “one country, two systems”and for a large part of Taiwanese society accepting this agreement would mean beginning a process of gradual loss of autonomy. Long term play. This “no” from Taiwan has not been interpreted in Beijing as something resounding. Possibly, because deep down, the Beijing proposal reflects a much broader strategy: taking advantage of global crises to present itself as a provider of stability in the face of an increasingly volatile environment. There is, therefore, no urgency or immediate rush to force reunification, but rather an accumulation of advantages that, over time, make the option of integrating less costly than resisting. The war in the East has thus opened an unexpected window for that narrative, turning energy into a political argument first order and demonstrating that, in the new geopolitical situation, the control of resources can be as decisive as that of territories. Image | 總統府, Picryl In Xataka | The same day that the US sent its marines to Iran, Taiwan woke up with déjà vu: China has surrounded it with 26 planes and 7 warships In Xataka | US experts are clear about the year in which China will try its luck with Taiwan: the countdown has already begun

The US continues to hit targets in Iran, but the Islamic republic keeps another weapon practically intact: its cyber attacks

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In recent days, tension between the United States and Iran has escalated with direct military actions. Washington has resorted to Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from warships and fighters F-35 to attack Iranian strategic infrastructure. At the moment, there is no evidence that Tehran has managed to respond with military attacks on US territory. Its response, however, has been felt on another front: the attacks against energy facilities in the Gulf, like those of Ras Laffan, in Qatar. In parallel, the conflict is also being fought in a less visible terrain, cyberspace. The information war. The photograph of the conflict begins to be completed when we look beyond the military level. Analysts cited by The Register They argue that Iran is turning more intensively to cyberspace to pressure the United States, an area in which it can operate with less direct exposure. In this context, the attack against Stryker is not interpreted as an isolated episode, but as an indication of a trend. “This is just the beginning,” said retired Gen. Ross Coffman. A case already visible. The most recent example of this dynamic is offered by Stryker, a medical device manufacturer with a global presence. According to Reutersa cyberattack last week altered its internal operations and made it difficult to manage personalized inventory. The company confirmed that it had contained the incident, although the episode shows how this type of action can impact especially sensitive sectors, beyond the strictly technological field. Beyond a specific interruption. Bloomberg notes that the impact on Stryker’s operations had an indirect impact on hospitals and patients, with surgeries that had to be rescheduled due to problems in the supply of specific material. This is a clear example of how the border between digital and physical can quickly blur. The American Stryker specializes in surgical equipment, orthopedic implants and neurotechnology solutions Civilian targets. Along the same lines as the analysts pointed out, the focus is not limited to public organizations. The aforementioned media reports that several voices agree that companies may be more exposed than government agencies, in part due to their unequal defenses. Targeting this type of offensive seeks to generate economic pressure and disruption without the need for a direct confrontation, they explain. A historical case. A clear example is Stuxneta malware discovered in 2010 that managed to infiltrate the Natanz nuclear plant and manipulate its systems until it caused failures in about a thousand centrifuges. The code was designed specifically for that environment, acting stealthily for weeks while altering processes without being detected. Its authorship has never been officially confirmed, although it has been widely attributed to the United States and Israel. When the damage is physical. The Stuxnet case helps to understand a key idea in this type of conflict. As we tell in a video from Xataka Presentahe malware He did not limit himself to infiltrating computer systems, but took control of the industrial controllers that regulated the centrifuges and altered their operation. First accelerating them and then slowing them down, he caused progressive wear until they became unusable. A front that already leaves its mark. The scenario that is drawn is clear. While there is no evidence of a direct Iranian military attack inside the United States, the conflict is already having effects inside the United States through other means. The Stryker case shows how an intrusion can translate into real disruptions in sensitive sectors, with an impact on companies and patients. Images | DC Studio | Stryker In Xataka | Russia is not sending troops or weapons to Iran: it is sending something much more important to take down the US

the war in Iran has put it in check

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Between Galicia and Tehran there are more than 5,000 km and the situation experienced in the Iberian Peninsula bears little or no resemblance to that which crosses the Persian Gulf. However, a server here, who writes these lines from Galician lands, has found that the situation in the Middle East has turned his travel plans upside down. And he is not the only one. Throughout Europe (and beyond) thousands of people are rethinking their vacations due to instability in the Gulf, which already threatens alter the flows of international tourism in the short term. The reason is very simple: the Middle East is not only a key player in the oil market (something already crucial in itself), it is also a key player in the map of air interconnections, especially between Europe and Asia. And that affects those who plan to fly this year to Vietnam, Japan or Thailand, among other destinations. A turbulent sector. Beyond Iranian politics, the energy market or the general threat that the rise in crude oil ended up moving to the shopping cart, there is a sector that is suffering in a very special way from what is happening in the Middle East: tourism. The Gulf is not only one of the great lungs of the oil industry, it is also a crucial piece on the tourism map. Firstly, due to the growing attractiveness of destinations like Dubai, especially among expats. Second (and this is the key) because in recent decades the region has managed to establish itself as the great connecting node between Europe, Asia and Africa. How important the Gulf is to the operations of international airlines became clear in the days following the US-Israeli attack on Iran. Tehran’s response, which launched attacks on its neighbors in retaliation for the support they provide to the United States, left out of play to airports such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha or Kuwait (among others), unleashing what some analysts consider the biggest crisis aeronautics since the pandemic. Was it that serious? Yes. And so we tell you at the time. That airfields like Dubai had to close their doors for security reasons affected thousands of Western expats who suddenly found themselves without options to return to their countries. The situation reached the point that some drove for hours to try their luck in Oman. Others paid large sums to charter jets. The fact is that the expats were not the only ones harmed. The ‘shock wave’ of the war also hit Western tourists who were on vacation in Asia and overnight they found that the Middle East terminals where they had to make a stopover to return to Europe (Doha, Dubai, Abu Dhabi) were blocked. A young Spanish woman complained in X those days of being “stuck” in Thailand. “The flights are for 4,000 euros or there is overbooking“, he lamented. The Government ended repatriating tourists from the Middle East. And the hangover came. This was more than a week ago, but that does not mean that the waters have returned to normal in airport operations, much less in the tourism sector. To begin with, because part of the Gulf is still an untouchable area for airlines. It comes with taking a look at Flight Radar’s flight monitoring maps to see the huge gap which remains open mainly on Iran, Iraq, Syria and Jordan. Emirates advertisement. Airspace slopes. The reality as of March 17 is that the war continues to condition airline operations in the area. In your last part Regarding traffic, OPS Group confirmed on Monday that a large part of the airspace in the Middle East remains marked by conflict, either closed (Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait and Syria) or subject to more or less restricted operations, as is the case above all in Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar. In fact the platform remember that the most common corridor in the Persian Gulf for flights between Europe and Asia remains greatly altered by the war, which is leading airlines to look for alternative routes, either diverting north, towards the Caucasus, or south, through Egypt, Saudi Arabia or Oman. What do the companies say? The Middle East not only stands out for its geographical position. It is also home to some of the most important airlines in the sector, such as Qatar Airways, Emirates and Etihad. And their grills are still far from being normalized. Just yesterday Al Jazeera informed that Qatar Airways has announced a program of limited flights to and from Doha due to the war. In fact, its operations will remain restricted at least until March 28. “Qatar Airways’ scheduled flight operations remain temporarily suspended due to the closure of Qatari airspace,” explains the company. “The airline will resume operations once the Qatar Civil Aviation Authority announces the full and safe reopening of Qatari airspace.” She’s not the only one. Etihad Airways too indicates on their website which, at least for now, “operates a limited program of commercial flights between Abu Dhabi and several key destinations.” It even gives the option to change reservations at no extra cost. Qatar announcement. “A reduced schedule”. Another company that has not returned to normal is Emirates. In the last hours I published an update in which it clarifies the status of its flight schedule: “Following the partial opening of the region’s airspace, Emirates operates with a reduced flight schedule.” Lufthansa has also suspended operations with Dubai, Dabi, Amman and Ebril until next week. Connections with Tel Aviv, Beirut and Tehran remain marked and in some cases will not be recovered until late April. In general, the specialized environment Condé Nast Traveler informed on Friday the 13th that there are a significant number of airlines with their operations altered in one way or another. What can we expect now? The situation in hubs like Dubai has improved since the total blockade that followed the attack on February 28, but the panorama continues not to be what it was before that date. Dubai … Read more

His marines are sleeping on the ground in the middle of the war with Iran

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To give us an idea, a nuclear aircraft carrier can generate enough electricity to supply a small city and house thousands of people for months without touching land. Inside there are everything from bakeries to hospitals, but also systems that work tirelessly and that, if they failcan completely alter life on board. For example, a small fire can turn into a nightmare. The limit of a super aircraft carrier. He USS Gerald R. Ford, the nuclear aircraft carrier more advanced and expensive from the United States, is designed to operate as a floating city capable of sustaining continuous air operations for months. Its prolonged deployment, which already breaks record numbers after almost ten months at sea, also reflects the increasing operating pressure in the war with Iran. This extreme pace has led the ship to chain missions with hardly any margin for maintenance, accumulating wear and tear on both its systems and its crew. Which reveals a minor fire. The incident that triggered it all began in a seemingly secondary place: the ship’s laundry. According to the new york timesa failure in a dryer or the accumulation of waste caused a fire that spread and forced an intervention that has already lasted more than 30 hours. In a closed, highly flammable environment like an aircraft carrier, even these everyday incidents become critical threats. The fact that it was contained without affecting key systems demonstrates the preparation of the crew, but also demonstrates the delicate operational balance in these floating masses. Hundreds on the ground. It turns out that the most shocking consequence has not been technical, but human, because more than 600 marines and crew members they have lost their beds after the fire. Since then, most are sleeping on the floor or on improvised tables, all in the middle of an active military operation in the war with Iran. If you like, the image of the troops sleeping on the ground breaks with the idea of ​​technological invulnerability and shows everyday reality of sustained combat. A failure in an auxiliary system ends up directly affecting the rest, morale and operational capacity of hundreds of troops. Fatigue, wear and tear and the invisible limit. The episode fits into a broader context of accumulated fatigue after months of continuous deployment. In fact, the Times reported that previous problems in basic systems such as healthcare or deferred maintenance already pointed to progressive wear. many experts warn that these failures usually appear first in everyday services, not so much in combat systems. When these incidents begin to chain together, they usually indicate that both the crew and the ship’s structure are being pushed to the limit. The fragility of the “giants of the sea”. The truth is that the history of aircraft carriers has been full of episodes that show that even these platforms can be compromised in critical situations: in 1967, a rocket accidentally fired caused a brutal fire. on the USS Forrestal against Vietnam, causing 134 deaths and forcing security protocols to be rethought. Two years later, in 1969, the USS Enterprise suffered another explosion on deck due to the detonation of ammunition exposed to the heat of the reactors, with 27 deaths and serious damage. In the new millennium, in 2008, the USS George Washington was out of service for months after a fire caused by a simple poorly extinguished cigarette which caused million-dollar losses, and more recently, in 2020, the USS Bonhomme Richard burned for days in San Diego until it became unusable and was permanently removed, all due to a fire that showed failures in the supervision and initial response. Cases widely documented which reflect that beyond their military power, aircraft carriers remain extremely vulnerable environments where small errors or incidents can quickly escalate into large-scale crises. The paradox of modern war. Be that as it may, the Ford case reveals a key contradiction: the fact that one of the most advanced war machines on the planet can launch planes relentlessly, but also remains dependent on thousands of human routines and basic systems that cannot fail. If you like, modern warfare not only requires technological power, but also sustained resistance. And it is precisely in these everyday details where the problems begin to appear. cracks of a prolonged effort. Image | US Navy In Xataka | The US has asked all its allies in Hormuz for help. The answer he received was anticipated by Spain before anyone else: “no” In Xataka | The world is desperately asking Ukraine for its antidote to the Shahed. And Ukraine has decided to keep them for its war

The “bottom of the barrel” was the cheapest waste of the oil industry. The war in Iran has just turned it into an unaffordable luxury

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Historically, the fuel oil has been known in the oil industry as the “bottom of the barrel.” Typically cheap and underappreciated, this byproduct comes from the bottom of distillation towers, the equipment where crude oil is heated and split into multiple products. In fact, very often, this fuel cost less than a barrel of crude oil, and refineries sold it at a loss as it was a simple remnant of the process necessary to manufacture high-value products such as diesel. However, as expert Javier Blas warns in your column for Bloombergthe Iran war has turned the industry upside down. That waste that no one wanted has become an ultra-expensive raw material overnight, which is bad news for the global economy. Despite being overshadowed by other distillates, the fuel oil plays an immense role in the modern world, driving container ships that act as the workhorses of globalization. The breakup of a market at the limit. In the current conflict, all eyes they are set in the rises and falls of crude oil. However, the real drama is hidden in the physical maritime bunker markets, where the traditional relationship between the price of crude oil and refined products has been completely broken. With crude oil hovering around $100, the fuel oil It shouldn’t be much more expensive. In reality, it is trading at $140 a barrel in Singapore and almost $160 in the Emirati port of Fujairah. A report of Lloyd’s List explains that the average price of the fuel oil of very low sulfur content (VLSFO) in the 20 main bunkering centers reached $1,005 per ton, double its pre-war cost and the highest figure since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. For his part, analyst Clyde Russell warns in his column Reuters that, while crude oil futures are confident of a solution, prices for physical cargoes are sending signals of an impending crisis and a supply chain that is buckling under pressure. The missing link. The key to this specific crisis lies in geography and geology. As Blas points outrefineries in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates produce 20% of all fuel oil sold internationally. Added to this is a crucial geological factor: the crude oil from the Persian Gulf generates much more fuel oil than that of other regions. For example, when distilling a barrel of Saudi flagship crude oil (Arab Light), approximately 50% of what comes out is residue for fuel oil, compared to 33% left by US WTI crude oil. This explains why the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a death trap specifically for this byproduct. The logistical panic. The real urgency is no longer just the price, but physical availability. The shipping industry has raised the alarm because supplies are critically low in Singapore and Fujairah, two of the world’s most important bunkering hubs. “If we do nothing, we risk ending up with dry supply points in Asia,” Vincent Clerc sharply warnedCEO of shipping giant Maersk. To avoid collapse, Maersk needs to be proactive and is transporting its own fuel around the globe to have the right amount in the right place, an unprecedented challenge that Clerc compares to the logistical juggle experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic. On a day-to-day basis, the charter market is paralyzed. Scott Bergeron, CEO of Oldendorff Carriers, confess to Lloyd’s List that there are problems getting fuel quotes, and that “availability for April is a big question mark.” The operational consequences will be drastic: Global slowing: Ships will reduce their speed to conserve fuel. Port congestion: Massive congestion is expected in ports that still have reserves. Accelerated scrapping: Older and inefficient fleets could be forced to be scrapped due to the enormous costs. Furthermore, according to Clyde Russell in your column for ReutersAsian refiners are cutting production, and countries like South Korea could restrict exports, pushing dependent nations like New Zealand into rationing measures. The environmental dilemma. This severe lack of supply is even putting pressure on climate regulations. Given the suffocating lack of distillates, The Maritime Executive details that the regulators could be tempted to temporarily suspend IMO 2020 emissions regulations. This would allow ships to return to burning heavy fuel oil (HSFO) widely, freeing up ingredients for other critical sectors. Meanwhile, ships already equipped with scrubbers (scrubbers) can still legally burn the cheaper HSFO. As the price gap between clean and dirty fuel widens, these shipowners are realizing massive savings; In fact, this price spread reached $189.50 per ton in Singapore. The current crisis leaves no room for maneuver. As Javier Blas saysthe world has already spent its main lines of defense against this oil shock: compromised refineries have been avoided and strategic reserves have been emptied. Looking to the future, the only variable capable of balancing consumption with a meager supply is the “destruction of demand” through suffocating prices. Ship fuel may come from the bottom of the barrel, but it has proven to have the ability to sink or keep afloat international commerce. Today, without a doubt, it has become the world’s main problem. Image | Photo by william william on Unsplash Xataka | The US Navy already knows what is going to happen to the planet: the mission to open Hormuz is the closest thing to a suicide operation

The Oscar gala has been completely unrelated to the conflicts in Iran and Palestine except for one person: Javier Bardem

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Javier Bardem took the stage at the Oscars with a red badge with large letters hanging on his lapel. “No to war.” The same one he wore 23 years ago at the now legendary Goya gala that opposed another war, that one in Iraq. Before announcing the Oscar for Best International Film, he waited for the accompanying music to end and said: “No to war. Free Palestine.” The public applauded the actor’s bravery, unconsciously making clear the cultural abyss between Hollywood and Spain. An apolitical gala, except for a few things. The Academy had already warned that this gala would be exempt from political proclamations, but there were a couple of exceptions. One was a devastating Conan O’Brien, who He congratulated the British because they do stop their pedophilespointing to the Epstein files and the recent arrest of Prince Andrew. Jimmy Kimmel dedicated a little dig at ‘Melania’not nominated for Best Documentary. Javier Bardem, however, had no problems naming wars, countries and leaders. Why the pin. On the red carpet, Bardem explained to the press that the “No to War” pin was the same one he wore in the Goya of 2003 while protesting against what he described as what he has later described as the “illegal war in Iraq”. This time he wore the badge to protest against the US and Israeli attacks on Iran. “We are here 23 years later, again with another illegal war created by Trump and Netanyahu, causing a lot of damage and killing many innocent people,” declared. In addition to that badge, he wore the Handala, a figure of a child with his back turned that the cartoonist Naji al-Ali created in 1969 and which has become a symbol of Palestinian resistance. Legal ironies. A detail completed the portrait of wars and conflicts against which Bardem protested: the Palestinian actor Motaz Malhees, one of the protagonists of ‘The Voice of Hind Rajab’, nominated for Best International Film, could not attend the ceremony because the new regulations of the Trump administration prevented him from traveling to the United States with his Palestinian Authority passport. The film chronicles the attempts to rescue a five-year-old Gazan girl killed by an Israeli bombing. No to war: Origins. We recommend the podcast still in progress ‘Delusions of Spain‘ dedicated to the 2003 Goya gala, to understand all the implications of the protests of that year. The invasion of Iraq was imminent and Aznar had publicly shown his support for Bush. Willy Toledo, Alberto San Juan and the Animalario theater group took over TVE to protest against the government itself: there was no official plan but the vast majority of guests and candidates put on the stickers. Bardem himself was the first to start the protests that night with a “Never again” against the Prestige disaster, which was taking place in those same days. Different industries. The gap that separates the political culture of Spanish cinema from that of American cinema is neither new nor accidental. In Spain, the sector has a documented tradition of public positioning: the white hands of the president of the Academy José Luis Borau against ETA in 1998, the violet tide of recent years, the speeches on historical memory, Bardem himself in 2003. The industry understands that the gala is a loudspeaker and that using it makes sense, even if it has costs. Susan Sarandon, upon receiving the international Goya during her visit to Spain, declared that she was “very surprised” by the atmosphere of political protest that was breathed there, in contrast to what he described as “censorship” in the United States. Because Hollywood works differently. Explicit political activism from the stage is usually the exception, not the norm. Bardem has verbalized it with little contemplation: at the 2025 Emmyswearing a Palestinian kufiya, said he “would not work” with any company that supported Israel, joining protests from other Hollywood actors. He added that not getting jobs was “absolutely irrelevant” compared to what is happening in Gaza. National protest. It is curious that this has happened in a year like this, the triumph of a highly politicized film like ‘One Battle After Another’. However, although there were different proclamations in favor of peace and well-intentioned desires to improve the world (starting with those of the film’s own director, Paul Thomas Anderson), no one expressed the demands as forcefully as Bardem. That thus demonstrated that “I am Spanish, Spanish, Spanish” goes beyond winning at tennis from time to time. In Xataka | Two Oscars with the same serial number: how the biggest and most confusing silent fraud of the Academy was created

two mine hunters and a fleet in the opposite direction are putting Iran in the face of Vietnam

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In the vietnam warthe United States came to deploy more than 500,000 soldiers in Southeast Asia and still failed to impose a clear victory. Decades later, that conflict remains the classic example of how an overwhelming military power can become trapped in a war that, on paper, seemed much simpler. The war begins to mutate. The war between the United States and Israel against Iran has entered a different phase because two strategic moves are happening at the same time and the satellites have clearly revealed their destinations. While the United States strengthens the region with marine units capable of rapidly deploying troops ashore, two major US ships ready to clear mines in the Gulf have appeared in Malaysiathousands of kilometers from Hormuz. There is no doubt, this combination is, to say the least, strange: if the immediate objective was to reopen the strait through a classic naval operation, those ships displaced from the East should be precisely there. The contrast suggests that Washington is beginning to assume that the problem it won’t solve itself from the sea and that the conflict can lead to a more complex and prolonged phase. Hormuz: the perfect bottleneck. The strait favors especially Iran because it turns an American technological advantage into a logistical problem. It is a passage, pardon the redundancy, narrow, surrounded by a hostile coast and saturated with underwater noise, which makes it difficult to detect mines and defend ships. As we count last week, Iran can combine speedboats, drones, mobile missiles and mines of different types to sow uncertainty with cheap means. The suspicion of a minefield is enough to paralyze navigation, trigger maritime insurance and force Washington to spend enormous resources on escorts and surveillance. The asymmetry of the mines. naval mines they explain much of the problem. Placing them is relatively simple and cheap: they can be launched from small boats, submarines or even civilian ships. However, removing them It’s much more difficult. Mine-clearing ships must move slowly, use sonar, drones and helicopters, and examine the seabed in great detail. Plus: during this process they are vulnerable to attacks from the coast. That’s why even a few devices can block an entire strait and force the world’s most powerful navy to act with extreme caution. The USS Canberra somewhere in the Middle East in 2025 Where are the minesweepers? In that context, the absence of the LCS Americans prepared for countermines is especially striking. He USS Tulsa and the USS Santa Barbara They were deployed in Bahrain precisely to replace the old Avenger minehunters retired from the Gulf. But satellite images recent ones place them on the other side of the world, in Malaysia. This means that two-thirds of the ships destined for that mission are no longer in the area where they are most needed. The decision may have tactical explanationssuch as preventing them from being exposed to Iranian attacks in port, but the result is more or less clear: the American ability to clear mines in Hormuz is now much more limited. The limits of the naval solution. Even if such ships were present, clearing the strait would not be quick, of course. They counted the TWZ analysts that the new LCS are not dedicated minehunters like the old Avenger, but rather multipurpose platforms that depend on drones, helicopters and remote sensors to locate each device. In other words, the process aims to slow and requires air protection constant. In the middle of war, with missiles and drones flying from the Iranian coastthe operation becomes even more risky and almost suicidal. That is why many analysts warn that reopening Hormuz only from the sea could lead to weeks or months. Uss Tripoli The marines arrive. This is where the other big piece of the board comes in. The United States is sending a Marine Expeditionary Unitthat is, a rapid response force of about 2,200 marines embarked on amphibious ships with helicopters, F-35B and landing vehicles. These units are designed for assault operationsraids and temporary terrain control. In the case of Hormuz, and although everything is a hypothesis, its mission could include attack nearby islands into the strait, destroy missile launchers or neutralize bases from which mines are placed. School or attack. This change implies, a priori, a conceptual shift. Instead of just escorting oil tankers and clearing mines, the United States could try to eliminate threats on land. That would mean attacks on strategic islands, military depots or launching positions off the Iranian coast. Under that scenario, amphibious operations would allow open temporary windows security for navigation, but they would also introduce US troops into a hostile environment where the enemy can respond with missiles, drones or maritime guerrillas. Marine Expeditionary Unit on the move in the Pacific The risk of escalation. The problem with this type of operation is that tend to expand. The main reason? An incursion on an island requires protecting the deployed troops. Not only that. Then you have to maintain control of the place, reinforce defenses and secure supply lines. And if Iran reoccupies the area once the marines withdraw, the cycle begins again. This is how operations intended as quick hits can be transformed into prolonged missions. The mirror of Vietnam. May the main countermine warships have fled thousands of kilometers from Hormuz while marines arrive does not suggest a simple maritime reopening operation, but rather the possibility that Washington begins to assume that the real problem is no longer just in the water, but on the coastin the islands and in the Iranian capacity to reappear again and again with mobile, dispersed and cheap means. And that brings the war closer, saving all historical distances, to a very logical similar to vietnam. Not because Iran is going to reproduce that conflict exactly, but because the central risk is the same: a technologically superior superpower enters with objectives that seem limited and rational, discovers that the terrain forces it to expand the mission, and ends up trapped in a … Read more

India has been wanting to be the new China for years. The Iran war is putting it on a plate

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The iran war is demonstrating, once again, the fragility of globalization. Just look at this graph: Graphic: Xataka The price of a barrel of crude oil has rampaged because Iran is attacking refineries, the Strait of Hormuz through which 20% of the world’s crude oil passes It is abuzz and there is instability in the ‘oil well of the world’. Refineries are targetedbut also the new mine of the world economy: data centers. Iran has attacked data centers of Amazon in Saudi Arabia and Big Tech are setting their eyes on nearby countries where they can move. And what is very attentive is an India that has been pursuing an ambitious goal for years: to become the new China. They have been tempting big technology companies for years and with the narrative of being a safe and reliable country in which to manufacture. The war in Iran is now giving it another argument: kamikaze drones do not fall in its data centers. In short. Data centers have become critical infrastructure. They are from the moment you are investing in them. more than we invested to go to the Moonthe economy of some companies and countries is being linked to their success and, above all, they have been since the AI ​​fever has put the world of hardware in an alley. In war and love, anything goes (or so some apply), and this time we are seeing how they bomb schools, hotels and data centers. On March 1 and 2, Iran attacked with its drones two of the Amazon Web Services, or AWS, facilities in the United Arab Emirates and another center in Bahrain. This has forced the technology company to pause activity in those facilities, asking that companies that had services running on their servers migrate to those in other countries. Solutions. Latency plays a fundamental role in certain operations, so they must be servers that are relatively close to those that have been attacked. And that’s where they come into play both that Amazon has in India, specifically the one in Munbai and the one in Hyderabad. These are data centers from Amazon, yes, but the country has big plans to create an industrial fabric based on this type of infrastructure. At the beginning of last year we echoed a mega data center hard to believe. When most of the world’s large facilities remain below 1 GW of energy capacity, an Indian company wants to create a single data center with a capacity of 3 GW. If we return to the Amazon centers in northern Virginia, in the United States, we see that about 300 installations add up to a total of 2.5 GW. And now India wants one to only have 3 GW. And it wants to have it by 2027, a date as ambitious as its own dimensions. Rain of millions. It is estimated that such a facility would cost between 20,000 and 30,000 million dollars, but it is something that today’s India cares little about: they are burning money to attract industry and steal what they can from China. The country has been offering hundreds of millions of dollars to each technology company that wants to settle in its territory. It’s not just money. India is developingits market is growing and something important: young Chinese are increasingly more qualified and labor is getting more expensive. A cheaper workforce in India, added to government incentives, are two powerful arguments for some giants in the technology sector to move to the country. And, little by little, they are achieving it. Xiaomi, Motorola and even Huawei manufacture complete models of some of their lines in India. Asus, HTC, Samsung, Microsoft and LG have plants for some parts and Apple has taken the production of parts to India. old iPhone models. Another one is Micron, one of the main players in the memory segment. tempting everyone. The country wants more and it is gone sitting with representatives of heavyweights such as the aforementioned Apple… and Samsung. They want the South Koreans don’t just make a few piecesbut rather that they invest in artificial intelligence, hardware and in something that India is eagerly seeking: semiconductor research and development. Samsung is one of the world’s leading foundries and is investing millions outside of South Korea. India seeks to be part of that equation. To do this, they have something called PLI. This is a government initiative that encourages the production of a complete portfolio of products. That is to say: the more complete products a same brand manufactures in the country, the more incentives and economic advantages it receives. They also promise less economic friction with the West, although looking at the issue of tariffs and their ups and downs, it is something that can change from one day to the next. And it’s not all about pure and simple money: India is the most populous country on the planet and it is estimated that the average level of income will continue to rise over the next five years, which also “promise” a good national market for those products that companies manufacture on their soil. The Bangladesh Hi-Tech Park project And the result, with Hyundai being the only one with a significant presence and many open fields, buildings under construction… broken dreams. According to estimates, electronics manufacturing in India was a market of 115,000 million dollars and it is expected triple it by 2027. My colleague Laura already detailed that they were executing the technique of being a steamroller based on releasing billsalthough two things must be said. The first is that one of those objectives, the become the foundry of the worldit’s going to be complicated. TSMC is leading the conversation and is moving both on home soil -Taiwan- and in Europe and, above all, the United States. And what is truly worrying for the country is that, in this search for talent at all costs, it has invested a lot of money in the construction of technological cities that … Read more

If Ukraine promoted the use of drones, Iran has triggered the Terminator algorithm. And that was already a problem in science fiction

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In the gulf war 1991, the international coalition took more than a month to launch some 100,000 airstrikes after weeks of planning. Three decades later, the ability to process military information has changed radically: satellites, sensors and drones generate amounts of data that no human team could analyze alone. In this new technological environment, the true battlefield is no longer just the air or the land, but the speed at which information is interpreted. From the drone to the algorithm. Recent wars had already anticipated a profound transformation of modern combat, but the conflict with Iran seems to have crossed a different technological frontier. If the war in ukraine popularized the massive use of drones as a dominant tool from the battlefield, the campaign against Iran has introduced a logical even more radical: integration artificial intelligence at the very heart of military decisions. In fact, the initial attacks showed an intensity difficult to imagine just a few years ago, with hundreds of targets hit in a matter of hours and thousands in a few days. That speed was not only the result of greater firepower, but also of the use of capable systems of analyzing enormous volumes of data and transforming that information into almost instantaneous attack plans. Understanding the “kill chain”. I remembered this morning the financial times that traditional war, the so-called chain of destruction (from identifying a target to launching the attack) was a long and bureaucratic process. Intelligence officers analyzed information, wrote reports, commanders evaluated options and finally the coup was authorized. A process that could take hours or even days. The incorporation of AI is reducing that cycle drastically. We are talking about platforms that integrate data from satellites, drones, sensors and intercepted communications that are capable of generating lists of targets, prioritizing them and suggesting the appropriate weapon in a matter of seconds. The result is extreme and disturbing compression of the kill chain: What once required prolonged deliberation now becomes an almost instantaneous sequence. The digital brain of the battlefield. Behind this acceleration are data analysis systems that act as a true operational “brain.” These platforms combine geospatial intelligence, machine learning and advanced language models to interpret information and propose military actions. Its most disruptive capacity is that it no longer only summarizes data, but can reason step by stepevaluate alternatives and generate tactical recommendations. This allows military commanders to process volumes of information that are impossible to handle manually and multiply the number of operational decisions made in the same period of time. In practice, algorithms are allowing select and execute objectives at a scale and speed that were previously unthinkable. Bomb faster than thought. The result of this transformation is a war that begins to move at a rapid speed. higher than human pace. Artificial intelligence can now analyze information, detect patterns and propose attacks faster than a team of analysts could even formulate the right questions. Some experts describe This phenomenon as a form of “compressed decision,” in which planning is reduced to such short windows of time that human managers can barely review what the machine has already processed. In this context, another disturbing idea: that destruction can precede the human reflection process itself, that is, first comes the recommendation generated by the algorithm and then the formal approval of the person who must execute it. And there, there is no doubt, we can have a problem of colossal dimensions. The human dilemma in algorithmic warfare. Because this technological acceleration is generating a growing debate about the real role of humans in military decision-making. Although the armed forces they insist As final control remains in the hands of people, the time available to evaluate system recommendations is increasingly reduced. Some analysts fear that this will lead to a form of “cognitive download”one in which military leaders end up automatically trusting the decisions generated by algorithms. Other countries like China itself observe this evolution with concern and warn of the risk that automated systems end up directly influencing life or death decisions on the battlefield, associating the scenario with the closest thing to the “Terminator algorithm” due to the unequivocal way in which all paths approach James Cameron’s fantastic proposal. A new accelerated war. If you will also, what is emerging is not just a new military technology, but rather a new time of the war. AI makes it possible to process information on a massive scale, identify targets more quickly, and execute attacks with unprecedented simultaneity. This means that military campaigns can develop at a pace that overflows the models traditional planning. From this perspective, war no longer advances solely at the pace of logistics or firepower, but at the pace of algorithms capable of interpreting the battlefield in real time. And in this unprecedented scenario, strategic advantage could increasingly depend on who is able to think (or calculate) faster than the adversary. Although neither of them be human. Image | Ministry of Defense of Ukraine In Xataka | China has just found a hole in the US’s quietest weapon: an algorithm has hacked its B-2s in Iran In Xataka | The great paradox of war: the US ignored Ukraine’s pleas to Russia and now needs it in Iran

The war in Iran has reconfigured global airspace and its consequences are worrying

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Europe and Asia, continents united by land, are more separated than ever by the skies. Or, at least, it is more complicated than ever to travel between them. With the conflict in Ukraine and Iran active, airlines are either dealing with a bottleneck in their usual corridors or, on the contrary, are being forced to make long detours. And that has enormous implications. The latest. We have now been two weeks since the United States and Israel opened hostilities against Iran. The country’s response against the latter country and all those neighboring countries that host US bases caused chaos in air mobility in the area. Overnight, thousands of people saw how their flights departing or stopping in Dubai or Doha, two of the 10 largest airports in the world by passenger volumethey were cancelled. And they began to enter the hallways hundreds and thousands of other people looking for a quick exit of countries that were beginning to suffer bombings. Only in the first two days of conflict More than 5,000 operations have already been suspended with Emirates, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways some of the most affected companies. The consequences were immediate: passengers traveling 10 hours by car to neighboring countries to find free seats and tickets shot over the top. 10,000, 20,000 and up to 80,000 euros. Coping as they can. Little by little, the volume of flights at these airports has been increasing. After the first days of hostilities, Dubai is handling about 500 operations daily but this is much lower than the usual average of 1,200 operations. And airlines are in a similar situation. As stated in Business InsiderEmirates aspired to recover 100% of flights this Friday, March 13. Until the start of the conflict, they operated more than 500 flights daily and at the moment they have barely been exceeding 300. And in a worse situation are Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways, with a volume of operations that does not reach 100 daily flights when in the past they also exceeded 500. The passage between Iran and Russia has become a funnel a funnel. Those who do not have to make a stopover or are not destined for Middle Eastern countries are also not free of problems. With airspace closed over Iran, the passage between Europe and Asia has been reconfigured into a kind of funnel where Azerbaijan is key. And in the south the airlines have to deal with the conflict in the East, in the north they have to deal with the War in Ukraine. Most flights between Europe and Asia without stops in the Middle East are passing through the narrow passage between Türkiye, southern Russia and northern Iran. The other alternative is to divert flights through the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula. These narrow corridors represent a new obstacle for travel from Europe that had to pass through Russia before this country’s attacks on Ukraine. And this last country was chosen for a good part of the routes that connect with China or Japan. Now the airlines have two paths: go around to the south or go around far to the north. More, many more kilometers. Obviously, planes have to fly many more kilometers and burn much more kerosene. In The New York Times They give the example of the Nordic countries. Before 2022, flying from Helsinki to Tokyo was as easy as passing through Russia. Now flights have to circle the latter country from the north or south, spending time, fuel and, of course, money. The same has happened with Helsinki-Bangkok, which used Iran to take advantage of the forced detour to avoid passing through Russia. Now they are diverted through the funnel that is the narrow corridor between Russia and Iran. In BBC They already picked up on this problem a few days ago. With growing tension in the Middle East, some airlines had already chosen to reconfigure their flights through the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula before the first attacks. With greater air traffic in the area and more kilometers to travel, the experts consulted by the media point to something obvious: flights will be longer and the risks of delay greater. And the fuel through the clouds. These diversions also arrive when fuel for airplanes has skyrocketed. They collect in Argus that jet fuel is now double the price of oil before its refinement. The gap between both products is so high that American Airlines has lost 19% in stock market value so far this year. The reason: investors distrust the future of airlines. The fuel used by airplanes is a very delicate refined product whose storage costs are enormous so reserves are small. This causes its price to skyrocket with each new conflict and even its supply to be put at risk. When an unexpected situation involves a war conflict in a corridor through which 20% of oil and gas circulates around the world, the situation is much more delicate. and when 40% of aircraft fuel for Europe arrives through the Strait of Hormuz and it closes, we already know what to expect. From tourism to bankruptcy. The consequences of changes in routes and increases in fuel prices are very diverse. According to Deutsches Bankairlines are at risk of bankruptcy if fuel prices remain so high. They don’t talk just to talk. The last time there was such a big gap between the price of oil and jet fuel was in 2005 after the Katrina and Rita disasters. It was the trigger for the airlines Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines went bankrupt. But the change in routes is also key for the cities of the Gulf countries. Dubai or Doha have achieved attract Western tourists who spend a few days in its streets in a kind of gigantic terminal. Without intermediate stops on major trips between Europe and Asia, they risk losing their status as a recreational space between both continents, with tourists having a handful of days between two long trips. … Read more

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