Iran

The war in Iran is going to repeat a suicidal scenario from 1980. But with drones and kamikaze boats in the most fearsome point on the planet

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At first glance it is just a strip of water between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, but its importance it’s huge. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the few places on the planet where global trade it literally depends of a maritime corridor just a few kilometers wide. Every day dozens of supertankers and monster container ships pass through it, connecting the Middle East. with the rest of the planeta constant choreography that moves energy, raw materials and essential products on a global scale. Therefore, when something happens there, the effect is greatly felt. beyond the Gulf. The most dangerous bottleneck on the planet. As we said, the Strait of Hormuz is one of the most critical geographical points of the world economic system and also one of the most vulnerable. At its narrowest point it barely reaches 33 kilometers wide and thousands of ships pass through it every month connecting the Persian Gulf with the rest of the planet. Through this maritime strip it circulates around a fifth of oil that is traded in the world, large volumes of liquefied natural gas and an essential part of the industrial raw materials that sustain the global economy. But its importance goes beyond energy: it is also a key artery for trade in fertilizers and chemicals that end up directly influencing food production. When this route is interrupted, not only are the energy markets altered, the entire chain that connects agricultural fields, the chemical industry and supermarkets is shaken. War stops traffic. The military escalation between the United States, Israel and Iran has brought that critical point to the brink of a historic crisis. Attacks on oil tankers and commercial vessels, along with direct warnings from Tehran to shipping companies, have caused traffic through the strait to reduce. almost to zero in matter of days. Several vessels have been hit by projectiles or dronessome energy facilities in Gulf countries have been attacked and oil prices have reacted immediately with strong rises. Shipping companies and insurers have begun to cancel policies or dramatically raise war insurance costs, as some ships attempt to cross the zone with their location systems turned off to reduce the probability of being identified as a target. Washington’s response and the convoys. Faced with the risk that the global energy flow will be blocked, the United States has raised an extraordinary measure: escort oil tankers and commercial vessels with the US Navy and also offer financial guarantees and political insurance to reassure shipping companies. The idea seeks to avoid a global energy shock, but it implies send warships directly to the most dangerous area of ​​the Gulf. Organizing maritime convoys is a complex operation that requires destroyers, aircraft and military resources that could not be used in other missions. Furthermore, even with an escort, experts remember that ships would continue to navigate within an extremely hostile space, where reaction times to attacks can be reduced to minutes. The ghost of the eighties. I was counting this morning the financial times that the situation inevitably reminds one of the most tense episodes of the Cold War in the Middle East: the so-called “tanker war” which developed during the conflict between Iran and Iraq in the 1980s. So both countries They systematically attacked maritime traffic in the Gulf with missiles, naval mines and air strikes. A kamikaze battle involving more than four hundred commercial ships were damaged or sunk and the United States deployed dozens of ships to escort convoys and protect oil tankers. Still, the risk it was huge: American frigates were severely damaged by mines and missiles and dozens of sailors were killed. That crisis demonstrated the extent to which a regional conflict could put global trade in check. The difference: drones and kamikaze boats. The war in Iran is about to end repeat the scenario suicide bombing of 1980, but with a difference: now there are drones and kamikaze boats at the most fearsome point for the planet. From then until now the Iranian arsenal has evolved radically and today it combines long-range anti-ship missiles, thousands of cruise shellsarmed drones, diesel submarines, modern naval mines and fast vessels capable of swarming attacks. Added to this are unmanned surface vehicles, small ships loaded with explosives that hit the hulls of ships at the waterline, causing flooding in the engine room and rapid sinking. In a strait “so narrow” and close to the Iranian coast, these systems offer Tehran a obvious tactical advantage. An economic weapon to paralyze everything. Even without completely blocking the passage, the simple risk of attacks can paralyze maritime traffic. Recent history of the red seawhere attacks by militias allied with Iran diverted trade routes for months, shows that it only takes a few incidents to skyrocket shipping costs and force shipping companies to look for much longer alternative routes. In Hormuz the effect would be much greater because it is of the natural exit of the energy production of the entire Gulf. Tanker freight rates have already skyrocketed and any sign of mines or new attacks could double shipping prices again. A global pulse with unpredictable consequences. Close Hormuz also has a cost for Iranwhose economy depends largely on exporting its own oil, especially to China. However, the strategic logic of the conflict could push Tehran to use the strait as an economic lever to pressure Washington and its allies. In any case, the longer the war continues, the greater the temptation on both sides to use energy as a weapon. In that scenario, the world could face a perfect storm: skyrocketing oil, scarce fertilizers and more expensive food. All concentrated in a strait just a few kilometers wide that once again becomes the most fragile point in the global economic system. Image | eutrophication&hypoxiaNZ Defense Force, National Museum of the US Navy In Xataka | Shahed drones are spreading terror in the Gulf. Ukraine has offered the solution, and the price to pay has a name In Xataka | Spain has … Read more

The US is launching a missile capable of burying the Tomahawk on Iran. And the big question is where are you doing it from?

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The image of an American precision strike has been linked to silhouettes taking off from the sea or from the air. However, in recent years the Army has invested billions in recovering a capability that seemed secondary: hitting very, very far… from the mainland. In that bet may lie one of the greatest transformations of modern military power. A debut that changes theater. USA has premiered in combat the so-called Precision Strike Missileits new tactical ballistic missile, within the operation against Iran. It is not a minor evolution of the former ATACMSit is rather a leap in scope and concept. With more than 500 kilometers radius (and room to grow towards 650 and even 1,000) practically doubles the depth of ground fire available until now. As in many other “premieres”, it is not symbolic, it is doctrinal. A missile to bury the Tomahawk. The PrSM flies at speeds greater than Mach 3 in the terminal phase, allowing it to arrive earlier and better penetrate hardened targets. Forehead to Tomahawkslower and subsonic, the new system greatly reduces the enemy’s reaction time and complicates interception. Additionally, two missiles fit in a single HIMARS launcher pod, meaning that double the punch per vehicle. Of course, it does not replace the Tomahawk in strategic range, but in regional scenarios it can be left in the background due to speed, survivability and response capacity against time-sensitive targets. A PrSM capsule seen in front of a US Army M142 during an exercise in Australia. The M142 carries a 227 mm rocket with six projectiles. The Persian Gulf as a platform. At this point, geography explains a good part of the movement. The Gulf has a medium width of just 250 kilometerswith American allies aligned on the western bank and Iran occupying the eastern one. With a range of 500 kilometers, a land battery located anywhere on the Arab side can cover wide swathes from Iranian territory without the need to penetrate its airspace. That makes the missile a perfect tool to support an air campaign without exposing fighters or depending exclusively on ships. A test launch of a PrSM The key question: from where? The most decisive fact remains unknown. No has been confirmed Which Gulf country has authorized the use of its soil to launch these missiles. This mystery is not technical, it is rather political. The reason? Allowing a US land battery to fire on Iran automatically makes that territory in possible objective of retaliation. Many States in the region have historically preferred discreetly support to Washington while avoiding public exposure. Put another way, the exact location of the launch determines what capital takes on the direct risk. Hunting sensitive targets. Short-range ballistic missiles are especially effective against radars, mobile launchers and air defense nodes. Plus: they can be maintained on permanent alert and strike within minutes when a target arises. In a conflict where neutralizing anti-aircraft systems is key to sustaining air superiority, the PrSM provides a ground suppression capability which until now relied heavily on aviation and naval missiles. Beyond Iran. If you also want the premiere of the PrSM send a signal to other scenarios, especially the Pacific. Its planned evolution includes anti-ship versions capable of attacking moving targets and variants with greater range that will touch the threshold of medium-range missiles. It we have counted before. The US Army wants regain prominence in long-range warfare, traditionally dominated by the Air Force and Navy. Iran, in that sense, has been the first real test bed. Cost, volume and future. It is the “but” of any ballistic missile. Each projectile can exceed a million and a half dollars, although the price has been dropping as production increases. The goal is to reach up to 400 units annuallywhich will expand the available inventory and facilitate its sustained use. With future versions that could exceed the 1,000 kilometers rangethe PrSM does not seem just a substitute for the ATACMS. It is the first stone of a terrestrial architecture that seeks to project deep power from solid ground. What is really at stake. In short, the real twist is not that the United States has launched a new missile in a war, but that it has from the ground and against Iran. If he Tomahawk has symbolized precision warfare from the sea, the PrSM aims to represent the return of the tactical ballistic missile as a flexible instrument of regional pressure. And while it is not known with certainty from what ground ally is taking off, the political dimension of that launch will continue to be as relevant as the technical one. Image | CENTCOM, Australian Army, US Army In Xataka | If the question is how much of Europe is within range of Iran’s missiles, the answer is simple: a fairly large In Xataka | The arrival of the B-2s to Iran can only mean one thing: the search for the greatest threat to the United States has begun

Iran is not only resisting, it can mess things up

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In just four days of fighting, they have launched hundreds of missiles and drones over several Gulf countries, the Strait of Hormuz has seen paralyzed the transit of a fifth of the world’s oil and gas prices in Europe they have been shot about 50% in a matter of hours. What began as an offensive aimed to quickly neutralize A concrete threat has become a crisis that already affects markets, embassies and military bases throughout the region. It had to be “surgical”. The joint offensive of the United States and Israel was born with an “official” goal: Neutralize the Iranian missile program and dismantle its response capability before it could reorganize. It was assumed that the initial attacks, directed against hardened installations and command centers, would leave Tehran disoriented and with little room to react. However, four days later, the reality is another. Iran has not only continued launching ballistic missiles, but has shown that its military structure I was prepared to absorb decapitations and continue operating. The war has not ended in an initial phase of incontestable air supremacy. The mystery of the arsenal. Washington recognizes that completely eliminating Iranian ballistic missiles is extremely complex. Part of the production is undergroundfortified, and the systems can be disassembled, transported and reassembled. Israel claims to have destroyed hundreds of shuttles, but the shooting continues. The question is no longer where they are, but how many are left. The historical precedent of hunting of Scud in 1991which barely achieved verifiable results despite a massive air campaign, weighs as a warning. Because damage assessment from the air rarely offers absolute certainty. The decentralization that avoided the collapse. I was counting this morning the Financial Times that, after the death of the supreme leader and senior commanders in the first bombings, the Iranian response did not stop, accelerated. Command was previously decentralized to prevent the elimination of key figures from paralyzing the operational chain. The middle I remembered that the units now act with general guidelines already established. This explains the speed with which the attacks began against US bases, energy infrastructure and targets in the Gulf. It does not seem like improvisation, but execution of a designed plan for a long war. Iran’s key naval base in Strait of Hormuz set on fire in attacks Saturation, wear and western cost. American and allied defenses are being tested in an unprecedented scale. Low-cost drones, ballistic missiles short and medium range and electronic warfare capabilities are forcing Patriot and THAAD systems to be deployed on multiple fronts simultaneously. We talk about the embassy protectionbases and energy assets that encompass an immense space. Even when interceptors work, the economic cost is disproportionate: because shooting down a drone can cost several times more than manufacturing it. In addition, the chaos in the sky has caused fire incidents friend and low. In short, the feeling of absolute control, if there was one at any time before the attack, has been eroded. The Gulf as a field of economic pressure. Because Iran has gone beyond direct confrontation with Israel and the United States. It has hit energy facilities in Qatar and Saudi Arabiahas tense traffic until it closes a few hours ago through the Strait of Hormuz and has sent gas and oil prices skyrocketing. The Eurozone, in fact, already fears a severe inflationary spike if the conflict continues. The message in this scenario is clear: war is not limited to the exchange of projectiles, it is also fought in the markets. Global economic stability is part of the battlefield. Displacing the neighbors. The Gulf States, which had attempted to maintain cautious neutrality, now find themselves under direct fire. Hundreds of missiles and drones have been detected and intercepted over the Emirates and other countries, which are preparing to counterattack. The scale and speed of the attacks have surprised even those who expected retaliation. The regional outrage growsbut also the bewilderment at the unexpected magnitude of the Iranian response. Tehran, in short, is demonstrating the ability to strike broadly and sustainably. The idea that no one contemplated. So, four days after the start of the offensive, an uncomfortable realization is imposed in Washington and Jerusalem: Iran is not collapsing, far from it. Has not exhausted its launch capacity nor his will to climband your bet combines volume, dispersion and structural resistance. Hence the unknown about the actual size of its arsenal remains open, and as long as that question does not have a definitive answer, each missile intercepted is not a strategic victory, but rather a most uncertain extension. The campaign that was to quickly neutralize the threat thus faces a scenario that did not appear in the initial calculations: Iran not only resists, has margin to expand the conflict and turn it into something much more unstable and explosive than anyone had anticipated. Image | ESA, Hossein Velayati, Planet Labs In Xataka | Europe has opened its doors to the US to attack Iran. Except Spain, which had an ace up its sleeve: a Cold War signature In Xataka | The arrival of the B-2s to Iran can only mean one thing: the search for the greatest threat to the United States has begun

The US Government stopped using Claude because it was a “woke AI”. Right after he bombed Iran using Claude, according to WSJ

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This February 28, Israel and the United States They bombed Iran. It is something that occurs in parallel to a ‘war’ that is taking place on American soil: that of what AI should the country’s military arm use. Because yes, AI has become an essential tool for Intelligence operations, to the point that there are reports that suggest that Claude was key in the massive bombings on Saturday. But there is a problem. Hours before the attack, Trump ordered that Claude and any Anthropic artificial intelligence tools not be used in military operations. And the fact that the Pentagon has disobeyed only responds to one thing: Claude is too deep inside the United States military systems. The Anthropic Mess. This topic is complex, so let’s go with some context before getting into it. When the United States was looking for an AI to support its defense systems and will integrate with PalantirAnthropic offered theirs for the modest price of one dollar. That it was worth it a 200 million contract and both Anthropic and the Pentagon got to work integrating the company’s models into all kinds of systems. Claude’s support is so important to the Pentagon in massive scale data analysis that it is estimated that he was used for the capture of Nicolás Maduro a few months ago. The “problem” is that Anthropic programmed its AI not to violate two red lines: It will not be used to massively spy on American citizens. It will not be used for the development or control of autonomous weapons and attack systems. “The Woke AI”. The War Department and Donald Trump They didn’t agree with this. and last week they released a ultimatum: Either Anthropic gave up its ‘unleashed’ AI, or there would be consequences. What consequences? Play the card Defense Production Act of 1950 to take over the force of Anthropic’s creation. The company had until 5:01 p.m. last Friday to respond, and boy did it do so. In a long statement signed by Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, it was stated that the company was on the side of the country’s defense interests, but not at any price. Their moral standard was very clear and they were not going to give in to the blackmail of a United States that hours before threatened to “make them a Huawei” by putting Anthropic on a blacklist. Amodei’s response infuriated Trump and Pete Hegseth. The Secretary of Defense called Claude an “AI Woke,” a line that Trump himself followed. On his social network Truth Social, Trump pointed out that Anthropic is a “radical left-wing AI company run by people who have no idea how the real world goes.” Striking, to say the least, and with another response: the United States ended its collaboration with Anthropic and prohibited the use of its AI. The problem is that it’s… fake. “I am ordering ALL US federal agencies to IMMEDIATELY CEASE all use of Anthropic’s technology. We don’t need it, we don’t want it, and we will not do business with them again! – Donald Trump Claude to attack Iran. As soon reported The Wall Street Journalthe air attack against Iran was carried out with the help of those same radical left tools. The media noted that commands around the world, including the United States Central Command in the Middle East, used Claude’s tools to assess the situation, identify targets and simulate battle scenarios. Dependence. And this just paints a scenario, one in which the Pentagon is going to have a very difficult time removing those Anthropic tools from its system. It happened in Venezuela and it seems that it has happened again in Iran. Claude is too deep inside the Pentagon’s systems, maintaining an almost symbiotic relationship with the Palantir software, and breaking that from one day to the next seems complicated. HE esteem that it will take six months to eliminate Claude’s trace from the Pentagon software, but despite the prohibition of use and his inclusion on the blacklist by Hegseth, another decision seems to prevail: if we already have this, we will use it until we find a successor. OpenAI goes out for the crumbs (millionaires). And it didn’t take them even half a second to find that new AI provider. OpenAI -ChatGPT- issued a release in which he noted that “the United States needs AI models to support its mission, especially in the face of growing threats from potential adversaries that are increasingly integrating artificial intelligence technologies into their systems.” Interestingly, they have the same red lines that Anthropic imposed (no use for mass domestic surveillance, no direct autonomous weapons systems, no AI making high-risk decisions automatically). But there is a difference: if Anthropic refused to give full powers to the Pentagon, OpenAI points out that, despite maintaining the same moral principles, the use of its AI is tied to the legal use that the Department of Defense wants to make. This is ambiguous because if a certain use is considered legal, it does not conflict with that “morality.” We will see if it is a mere exchange of chips resulting from anger because someone opposed a government order or if the change from Anthropic to OpenAI translates into what the US needs for its security. In Xataka | The war between Anthropic and the Pentagon points to something terrifying: a new “Oppenheimer Moment”

Iran has put the price of oil at stake by attacking it with drones

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The world stage is Monday, a Monday marked by Iran bombing by the United States and Israel last Saturday. Iran has not sat idly byresponding with something it has already used in the past: suicide drones to attack bases of the allies of the aggressor countries. They have attacked Dubaibut also Saudi Arabia, causing the closure of one of the key refineries globally: Ras Tanura. And the result is -another- earthquake in the world market. In short. A few hours ago, Saudi Arabia and Aramco (the oil company) made the decision to stop production at the refinery Ras Tanura. The decision came when Saudi defenses intercepted several remains of Iranian drones. They did not impact, but their remains have caused some fires within the storage facilities of the power plant. Ras Tanura. We are talking about some of the largest refineries in the world, with an estimated capacity of about 550,000 barrels per day. Its closure implies that the export operations associated with the complex stop, which is addition to the closure of other energy infrastructures in the region, such as gas infrastructure in Israel and Kurdistan. As pointed out Bloombergthe problem is that Ras Tanura is one of the key refineries in the transportation fuel segment, specifically diesel, and not only have operations stopped, but very close is one of Aramco’s largest export terminals for refined products. This is the Strait of Hormuz, with dozens of ships waiting Hormuz. Uncertainty and military operations are once again causing the Strait of Hormuz to become abuzz. Hormuz is, after Malacca, the second largest oil corridor in the worldand a disturbance in normal functioning causes the entire chain to wobble. Uncertainty is causing a monumental bottleneck with ships stopped on both sides of the strait, waits that do not know when they will end, rescheduling, diversions to other ports and, ultimately, chaos in oil transportation. Impact. And you can already guess how the market is responding. Crude oil is one of the economic thermometers today, and the initial reaction has been as expected: a strong rise in prices. The barrel has risen around 10% in some markets after learning of the closure of the refinery, but it is already estimated that they could rise more than 20% if the situation continues and the strait closes. How much? Well, it is currently around $80, more than $100, according to some analysts, and it depends on how long the situation lasts that we begin to see how this price increase affects the fuel market. Vital. It is not the first time that refineries in the area have been attacked. They have become essential enclaves in the country’s economy, but also in global geopolitics. As pointed out Reuterssuch an attack is not just another military action, “it marks a significant escalation in violence.” It implies that Iran has the Gulf’s energy infrastructure in its sights because it knows its importance to the economy of the entire globe. And, evidently, an attack on its plants could cause Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors to join the US and Israeli military operations against Iran. Now, Iran has also been ‘touched’ by that basic infrastructure for its economy. The country is the third largest producer in OPEC and on February 28, explosions were reported on the island of Kharg, where process 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports. In the end, it is one more example of the domino effect and the fragile nature of the supply chain for a basic good. It’s just a part of a perfect storm whose consequences are far from reaching their ceiling. Images | MarineTrafficUS Army, VALGO In xataka | Europe believed it had won the gas war against Russia. Now it faces a much more uncomfortable reality: its dependence on the United States.

Iran has just attacked a base in Europe. The paradox of Spain is that it condemns the war, but the US does not need to ask to use its bases

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In 1953, in the middle of the Cold War and at a time of international isolation, Spain signed with the United States the so-called Madrid Pactsan agreement that opened the door to the installation of North American military bases on Spanish soil in exchange for economic and military aid. That decision, taken in a completely different geopolitical context, ended up becoming one of the longer lasting pillars of the bilateral relationship and a structural element of Western defensive architecture in southern Europe. Rota, Morón and a return. The operation American and Israeli against Iran has returned to place the Rota and Morón bases in the center of the strategic board. Destroyers permanently deployed in Cádiz They sailed to the Mediterranean Eastern, strategic transport planes and tankers took off towards the area and the Aegis system embarked on ships of the Arleigh Burke class It once again acted as an anti-missile shield. Rota is not just another base: it is part of the naval component of the NATO missile shield and, in practice, it has served on several occasions as a direct reinforcement of the defense of Israel in the face of Iranian salvos. Far from being reduced, the American presence has expanded in recent years, with five destroyers already stationed and a sixth on the wayconsolidating the Cádiz base as a structural piece of Washington’s military projection in the Middle East. Europe closes ranks with Washington. France, the United Kingdom and Germany have declared your disposition to take proportionate defensive actions against Iran and have coordinated your posture with the United States. London has explicitly authorized the use of British bases to neutralize missiles at source, while Paris and Berlin have supported the defense of European interests in the region. This position of the so-called E3 represents a political and operational support to the US strategy and confirms that, on a military level, Western Europe has not distanced itself from the offensive. Beyond diplomatic nuances, the message is clear: the main European powers are willing to provide infrastructure and resources if escalation demands it. First attack on Europe. Hours after Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his decision to authorize the United States to use bases in the United Kingdom to launch attacks on Iranian missile depots, a drone has impacted against the RAF military installations at Akrotiri, on the island of Cyprus. In this way, a more than relevant event occurs on the continent: Iran has attacked a European base. The Spanish paradox. For its part, Spain has condemned publicly the intervention and has appealed for de-escalation and respect for international law. However, the paradox is evident: while the Government criticizes the operation, US ships and media stationed in Rota have participated in the military device. The key is in the current legal framework. The US forces are not in Spain by specific authorization of the Executive in power, but by virtue of that bilateral agreement that regulates their presence and use of facilities. Because the United States does not need ask permission on a case-by-case basis for each ordinary operational movement within the agreed framework. In essence, Spain may express political rejection, but infrastructure is already part of the US strategic architecture in Europe and the Mediterranean, and its activation does not depend on an improvised consultation in the middle of a crisis. What Spain can do legally. The bases of Rota and Morón are governed by the Convention of Defense Cooperation between Spain and the United States, which is periodically renewed and establishes the conditions of use. Spain could in theorydenounce the agreement, not renew it or demand substantial modifications, which would open a complex diplomatic process that would require formal deadlines and prior notifications. It could also try to limit certain activities if it considers that they exceed what was agreed or violate international law. However, the real chances of that scenario materializing are rather few. The bases are part of NATO’s defensive framework, generate employment and investment, and are integrated into broader strategic commitments. Abruptly breaking or restricting the agreement would imply a political, military and diplomatic cost of great magnitude, both in the bilateral relationship with Washington and within the Atlantic Alliance. Between sovereignty and interdependence. If you also want, the current situation reveals the structural tension that exists between formal sovereignty and strategic commitments. Spain retains ultimate legal power over its territory, but has voluntarily linked part of its military infrastructure to a collective defense system. In this way, when a crisis breaks out like Iranthat interdependence becomes visible: the decisions made in Washington, London or Paris are immediately reflected in Spanish ports and runways. The political condemnation can modulate the discourse, but strategic reality shows that Rota and Morón are nodes integrated in a network that transcends the current debate and that places Spain, want it or notwithin the operational perimeter of the US strategy in the Middle East. Image | US Naval Forces Central Command/US Fifth Fleet, Navy In Xataka | The US threatened to take the Rota base to Morocco. Spain has buried it with an unbeatable offer: more territory In Xataka | A disturbing idea for the US is beginning to gain strength: if the war with Iran lasts more than five days it will not win it

If the war with Iran lasts more than five days he will not win it

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In major conflicts, strategists used to say that wars are not won only on the front, but in the factories. During World War II, for example, Washington produced more planes in a month than some countries in an entire year, and that industrial difference ended up tipping the balance. Today, that same logic re-emerges in a different and much more accelerated form, one where the speed of production can be as decisive as precision on the battlefield. A war that is measured in warehouses. The war between Iran, Israel and the United States It has stopped revolving around the conquest of positions or classic air superiority and has transformed into something much colder and more arithmetic: a race to see who runs out of ammunition first. An analysis that, in fact, was already circulating before Washington’s initial attacks and that after the first day it became clear. Tehran would not try to compete in air dominance or sustained strategic bombing, but in something simpler and potentially devastating: launching enough missiles and drones to force its enemies to spend more than they can replenish. The question, therefore, is no longer who hits the hardest, but who can sustain the rhythm the longest. The prior notice. As we said, even before this new escalation, senior US officials they had warned that previous conflicts in the region had dangerously eroded interceptor reserves. Systems like THAAD, Patriot either Standard Missile had already been used intensively in previous episodesand the data pointed to significant percentages of the annual stock consumed in a few days of combat. Behind this idea there is a reality: manufacturing these interceptors is neither fast nor cheap, and the industry has been working for years. showing difficulties to increase the rate of production. The problem was not hypothetical: the depth of magazines (the so-called magazine Depth) was already a cause for concern before this open phase of the conflict began. The economic equation: millions against missiles. In other words, Iran has turned cost into your main weapon strategic. In the first few moments alone, it launched hundreds of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and more than half a thousand drones against targets in Israel and the Gulf. Although the interception rate in places like the United Arab Emirates has been extraordinary, around 92%the bill is brutal. While Tehran invests hundreds of millions in its salvos, defenders they spend billions in interceptors that cost between four and five million dollars per unit, often firing two or more for each incoming threat. In the case of drones, the contrast is even sharper: platforms that cost tens of thousands force the use of expensive interceptors. in hundreds of thousands or more. For every dollar Iran spends, its adversaries may be shelling out between five and ten, and in some segments the ratio skyrockets. up to twenty to one. Submunitions and saturation. Far from reducing the pace, Iran has begun to use some of its most advanced missiles, capable of releasing submunitions during reentry and expanding the impact area, further complicating interception. Videos broadcast In networks they show launchers firing nine or eleven interceptors against a single missile, sometimes without success. The daily figures are eloquent: between 200 and 220 Iranian missiles launched per day against at 700 or even 1,000 interceptors fired by the coalition. Despite massive bombing raids on Iranian bases, mobile launchers and air defenses, launch capacity remains high, with hundreds of missiles and drones still available. The war is becoming a duel of logistical resistance rather than a contest of surgical precision. Four or five days: the critical window. At this point, various analysts agree that, at the current rate, interceptor reserves could be depleted in a matter of minutes. four or five days. This estimate does not arise from speculation, but from a simple intersection between Iranian launch cadence and coalition defensive consumption. Each interceptor fired is one that cannot be replaced immediately; Its manufacture can take months or years. If the conflict extends beyond From that window, the balance could quickly tip, not because Iran manages to destroy all strategic objectives, but because the shield that protects them begins to empty. The American problem. Hence, the disturbing idea for the United States is that if the war with Iran lasts more than those five days, its chances of winning would begin to descend. Not necessarily in immediate territorial or political terms, but rather in the more tangible realm of available ammunition. Every Patriot, THAAD, or naval interceptor fired in the Gulf is a resource that would also be crucial in a hypothetical conflict with China or North Korea. If the campaign becomes a protracted exchange, technological superiority may be neutralized by simple cost arithmetic and production time. Iran appears to have chosen a economic war in the form of missilesand contrary to what it may seem, that choice gives it a structural advantage: it can afford to waste cheaper projectiles for longer than its adversaries can afford to fire theirs. Numbers war. The question that summarizes this phase of the conflict is brutally simple: What will run out first, the Iranian launchers or the coalition interceptors? So far, neither intensive bombing nor the elimination of key targets have reduced decisively Tehran’s launch capacity. Meanwhile, defensive warehouses are being emptied at an accelerated rate. From that prism, the war is no longer decided only in the sky over Tehran or Tel Aviv, but on assembly lines and in the industrial capacity to replace what was fired. Image | Glenn Fawcett, Gieling, Rob In Xataka | The US used one of the oldest practices of war to bomb Iran: reverse engineering with an unprecedented weapon In Xataka | To sink a US aircraft carrier required a weapon that Iran did not have. The arrival of China has just changed everything

Iran is going to need much more from China and Russia. The US has landed its fighter planes loaded with a weapon that changes everything: angry kittens

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For most of the 20th century, air superiority has been decided by who flew higher, faster, or with more missiles. Today, the decisive factor does not have to be seen or heard, and sometimes even fits in a container under the fuselage. In modern conflicts, confuse the enemy for a few seconds it can be worth more than destroying it, and those seconds are usually start much earlier for the first plane to appear on the radar. Therefore, Iran may need much more than “aid” and agreements with China either Russia. A deployment that anticipates. While Washington and Tehran keep the diplomatic channel open, we have been counting that the Pentagon has been strengthening its presence in the Middle East for weeks with a movement of forces that includes fighters, bombers, submarines, aircraft carriers and land systems. The transfer of F-16CJ fighters specialized in air defense suppression is not a symbolic gesture. It is an operational signal that, if the negotiation ends up failing, the United States wants have the key ready to open the Iranian sky from the first minute. Wild Weasel: Enter first, shoot later. The F-16CJ are designed to an uncomfortable mission and certainly dangerous– Locate enemy radars, force them to turn on, and neutralize them before they can guide missiles against the attacking force. These aircraft are equipped with the system AN/ASQ-213 and anti-radiation missiles AGM-88 HARMand can physically destroy detection and command nodes. That said, its true advantage isn’t always in explosion. It is in the ability to disorganize the entire anti-aircraft architecture before it understands what is happening through a secret weapon. The “angry kittens”. Yes, because under the fuselage of these fighters travels the Angry Kitten podan advanced electronic warfare system that began as a tool to simulate threats in exercises and ended up evolving into a real operational capability. Let it be known, at least since 2017 It has been tested on multiple platforms and has become a test bed for cognitive electronic warfare, approaching the ideal of systems capable of quickly adapting to changing threat environments. Turning radar into a mirage. Thanks to technology from radio frequency digital memorythe Angry Kitten can detect, capture and manipulate enemy radar emissions to return altered signals. In other words, they don’t just block. What it does is create false targetsdistorts trajectories and sows doubts on the operator’s screen, thus reducing thereliability of information that supports the launch of interceptor missiles. Additionally, it can update jamming techniques very quickly and even adjust them during the mission, while the pilot concentrates on flying and fighting. They will face the invisible challenge. Tehran has reinforced its anti-aircraft batteries and seeks external support, trusting in missiles of chinese origin and in strategic alliances with Russia as a deterrent. However, that network relies on radars, data links and command centers that can be confused before a single interceptor leaves the launcher. Hence, Iran is going to need much more than Beijing’s missiles and the Moscow submarines. Because Washington has just landed in the East with fighter planes loaded with those angry kittens capable of disorganizing the defense from within and converting the apparent solidity of the shield into an electronic illusion. The war before the first impact. In short, everything indicates that, if a prolonged air campaignthe breakdown of the Iranian defensive overlap will not fall solely on stealth platforms. Most likely it will require methodical work of these F-16CJ opening corridors, degrading sensors and keeping pressure on the anti-aircraft network. In that scenario, the first phase would not be so much a rain of bombs. It would be more of an invisible battle for control of the spectrum, one where whoever dominates the signal dominates the sky. Image | John QuineUSAF In Xataka | As the US approached, the satellites have captured a shadow: Iran has resurrected a Russian Frankenstein for what is to come In Xataka | To sink a US aircraft carrier required a weapon that Iran did not have. The arrival of China has just changed everything

Iran has resurrected a Russian Frankenstein for what is to come

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For decades, Russian shipyards have turned their diesel-electric submarines into one of the star products of their military industry: dozens of units of Project 877 and 636 (known in the West as the Kilo class) were exported to countries such as India, China, Algeria, Vietnam or Iran, offering a combination of relatively contained cost, affordable maintenance and coastal warfare capabilities that allowed navies without a great submarine tradition to take a strategic leap without developing their own technology. Iran has resurrected and modernized one of them. The shadow under the Strait. While Washington was approaching their carrier groups to the Gulf and first the USS Abraham Lincoln, and then the USS Gerald R. Ford, entered sensitive waters, the satellites captured a disturbing image at Iranian Base 1: one of the old Kilo class submarinesacquired from Russia in the nineties for around $600 million each, returned to its berth after months in dry dock. Amid American pressure for a new nuclear deal and Iranian warnings of all-out war, Tehran appeared to have resurrected a Frankenstein Russian for submarine warfare, returning to the scene a platform that for years dragged maintenance problems and availability, but it remains its most powerful asset underwater. The myth of the Russian “black hole”. The Kilo, designed in the Cold War as Project 877 and evolved into later variants, gained the nickname “black hole” for their low acoustic signal when sailing on batteries, a reputation that some experts consider exaggeratedagainst modern Western submarines with air-independent propulsion. However, their combination of relative stealth, heavy torpedoes, ability to mine shipping lanes, and anechoic coatings made them one of the star products Soviet and Russian naval export, sold to China, India or Iran, countries that were looking for an effective submarine force without developing their own industry. Today many of these navies are removing them due to obsolescence, but in the Persian Gulf they continue to be pieces with strategic value. A weapon designed to deny. The normal thing is that Iran does not aspire to defeat the United States Navy in the open field, but rather to defeat make more expensive and complicate its presence in the Strait of Hormuz through an area denial strategy supported by a set of mines, coastal missiles, fast boats and submarines. In this scenario, a Kilo operating on batteries can become a serious threat. for escort or logistics vessels that transit maritime corridors barely three kilometers wide, even if a supercarrier has layered defenses and anti-submarine coverage with MH-60R helicopters and airplanes P-8A. The key in this case is not so much to sink an aircraft carrier, but to sow enough uncertainty to raise the political and military cost of any attack. The dwarf fleet that completes the picture. There is no doubt, the modernization of the Kilo cannot be understood without the other half of the Iranian device: the more than twenty Ghadir class mini submarinesat least eleven recently visible on the same base, designed for shallow waters and intense traffic. With just 117-125 tons submerged and diesel-electric propulsion, these units are optimized for ambushes in coastal environments where civil noise, salinity and currents degrade sonar performance, making them difficult to detect, although limited in autonomy and firepower. Faced with American technological superiority, Iran accumulates quantity, dispersion and knowledge of the terrain. Geography, wear and calculation. Experts say as Jack Bubby that another equation must be taken into account. The conditions of the Gulf, a scenario with shallow depth, high salinity and complex currents, have historically punished the Iranian Kilos and reduced availabilityforcing long periods of maintenance and reconditioning. But precisely this restricted environment favors small and discreet platforms, and turns any concentration of naval forces into a calculated risk exercise. Thus, while the United States reinforces its presence to sustain diplomatic and military pressure, Tehran rebuilds its submarine force combining updated Soviet relics and modern coastal flotillas, betting that, in a conflict, the shadow underwater weighs as much as the steel visible on the surface. Image | rhk111X, Vitaliy Ankov In Xataka | From space something very dangerous can be seen in Iran: the US cannot do what it did in Caracas if it does not want a massacre In Xataka | If the US attacks Iran with drones, it will find a surprise: Russia has shielded its sky with an explosive weapon, Verba

If the US attacks Iran like Venezuela, it will be a drain in both directions.

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In recent weeks, the United States has concentrated hundreds of aircraft and support assets around the Middle East, while commercial satellites captured unusual movements around the Iranian capital. That combination of deployments and repositioning It has raised tension and forced us to rethink calculations about what a direct collision would really entail. The temptation to copy Caracas. I remembered this morning the new york times that when Donald Trump compared an eventual offensive against Iran with the lightning operation which allowed Nicolás Maduro to be captured in Caracas, raised the idea of ​​rapid, surgical and decisive action. The problem is that the parallelism is quite misleading from its strategic basis. Venezuela offered a aging airspace and weakly defended, in addition to an accessible political objective, while Tehran is supported by a theocratic structure consolidated for almost half a century, a Revolutionary Guard of some 150,000 troops and a regional network of militias that can open multiple fronts. There is no “clean” or low-cost option, and any attempt to decapitate the regime would involve a sustained campaign with real risk of American casualties and regional escalation. And not only that. Satellite images. The latest images commercial flights from space through Airbus and Planet Labs have shown something that changes the calculus: the relocation of S-300 systems long-range around Tehran and Isfahan, accompanied by the Cobra-V8 electronic warfare in key positions south of the capital. This combination combines interceptors capable of hitting targets hundreds of kilometers away with powerful jamming capabilities in critical bands for radars, satellite links and designation pods, which points directly to the US “kill chain” before the missiles even enter their range. The signal is clear: Iran not only wants or can fire, it also wants blinddegrade and force attackers to operate closer and with greater exposure. A shield that complicates air attack. He S-300PMU-2with high-speed missiles and three-dimensional radars optimized for detect targets at low altitudesuch as drones and cruise missiles, constitutes the hard shell of the Iranian system, while the Cobra-V8 system seeks to erode and wear down the sensory advantage of American platforms like AWACS or even electronic suppression aircraft. Although there are doubts about the full integration of these systems and the absence of advanced fighters that act as overhead sensors, their deployment near the capital suggests an architecture designed to survive the first wave of attacks and force Washington to devote additional resources to suppression and electronic warfare. In other words, it is no longer just about dropping bombs, but about winning a previous battle in the electromagnetic spectrum. Missiles and multiple fronts. Added to this defensive armor is one of the missile arsenals wider Middle Eastwith medium-range systems capable of hitting US bases and allied cities more than 2,000 kilometersin addition to drones, anti-ship weapons and recent sea-based air defense tests in the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, it is entirely plausible that Iran could scale quickly through its so-called “axis of resistance”, activating Hezbollah, the Houthis or Iraqi militias to disperse the cost and expand the theater of the conflict. All this, of course, while threatening a road along which nearly a fifth of of world oil and gas. The logic, therefore, is dissuasive: any blow against Tehran would have an immediate echo in Israel, in the Gulf and in the planet’s energy trade. An indentation in both directions. The result of this equation is that the comparison with Caracas is diluted facing a scenario where the Iranian capital has become a strongly defended and electromagnetically contested space. The satellite images do not show a disarmed country, but one that has strengthened its core strategic in anticipation of a modern aerial suppression campaign. In short, if the United States plans to attack as he did it in Venezuelayou will not face an operational vacuum, but rather an environment saturated with missilesinterference and possible regional retaliation, a full-blown clash that threatens to become a combat with casualties in both directions from day one. Image | Airbus, Planet Labs In Xataka | If the US attacks Iran with drones, it will find a surprise: Russia has shielded its sky with an explosive weapon, Verba In Xataka | It is so small that it can barely be seen from space, but this secret island is the main problem for the US to attack Iran

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