AEMET

“Temperatures between 5 or 10 degrees above normal will continue,” says Rodríguez Marcos of AEMET.

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We’ve known this for weeks. AEMET believes that the June-July-August quarter of 2026 will be in the warm tertile throughout Spain and the truth is that it is not a very risky bet. Of the 10 heat waves that AEMET has been counted in June in the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands since 1975half are concentrated in the last decade. The underlying problem is that, as we are seeing, June has ceased to be a ‘transition’ month to join (statistically and climatically) the summer ‘in a chemically pure state’. Like ‘June’ is ‘summer’? Climatologically it already was, of course. The climatic summer began on June 1. The difference is what the AEMET tells us: the same definition of heat waves was calibrated taking into account the highest temperatures of July and August. That it is increasingly common for June to begin to exceed these temperatures is a clear indication of what we are talking about. Above all, because the wave of June 2025 (from June 18 to July 4) It lasted 17 days and affected 40 provinces: the third longest and the third most extensive of the series. It’s not that this isn’t “the heat from before”, it’s that the situation is out of control. What does this translate into? As explained Francisco Javier Rodríguez Marcos of the AEMET, what the models say is that the temperatures this quarter will be among the 30 highest on record. This will especially affect the northern area, the east of the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. The line to overcome is clear: the 46 ºC that El Granado (Huelva) reached on June 29 of last year. It is, so far, the highest temperature ever recorded in Spain in the month of June. But in 2026 isn’t that ‘weird’? It is true that we are coming from the wettest winter in 47 years, but it is also true that April was the warmest April in the historical series. That is, no one knows what is ‘normal’ in 2026 and, in this sense, no one can say that the scenario that is drawn is strange. The important thing is to prepare. In some ways, early waves have a potentially greater health impact because the body is not yet acclimated to the heat at the beginning of the season. In this sense, it is best to advance the preparation of the homes (insulation, cooling, night ventilation) and start preparing our daily lives. Image | Tropical TidBits In Xataka | There are areas of Pakistan and India touching 50º C: human beings are discovering where their physiological limit is

AEMET is clear that it does not end here

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The calendar and the thermometer are fighting loudly in Spain. And the thing is that (little by little) we are getting used to it, but what we are experiencing it’s not normal. From May 26 and 29 the interior of the Peninsula will live about five degrees above usual. And, sincerely, the words of AEMET they leave no room for doubt “extraordinarily warm for the time.” We thought that 2026 was going to be different, but no. After a completely anomalous January, many expected that this anomaly would continue with us. But the tentacles of summer are already here. And as AEMET says, none of this is “a flash”. It is one more installment of a recurring pattern: the hot season is getting longer and warmer. The records that They are marking all the thermometers of the Cantabrian coast make it clear. What is happening right now? The week will be dominated by a powerful subtropical anticyclone extended over Western Europe that will generate what It is often referred to as a “heat dome”. That is, a situation in which the air we have above the peninsula is not renewed and is warming little by little. In this sense, in this week’s episode there is no clear influence of the warm African air. Have one of the first “Iberian ovens” of the year: The country is generating its own heat through stagnation and compression (the descent of warm ridge air over warm surface air). While mainland Spain is on the verge of 40 degrees (and many parts exceed it), countries like France They are experiencing completely unprecedented heat. “It doesn’t end here.” What AEMET says is clear: The next few days will be extraordinarily warm and the seasonal prediction for May-June-July places all of Spain in the upper tertile of temperatures. However, these are only “participations” in a “weather lottery” whose result, as always, is yet to be decided. However, the Agency has explained ad nauseam that, in the last 50 years, the heat has only gotten earlier and longer. June 2025, without going any further, It was the warmest June in the historical series Spanish, with an average temperature 3.5 °C above the average and 0.8 °C above the previous maximum (that of 2017). The entire summer of 2025 closed 2.1°C above average. However, 2026 is not a normal year. In fact, there is an interesting paradox that should be highlighted. All this happens with reservoirs at 84% (one of the Mays with the most reserves in the last 35 years): this rules out the drought scenario, but opens an unexpected flank: the fires have grown by 218% so far this year and we still have summer ahead of us. Image | BenBaso In Xataka | Oviedo is at 34º C in the middle of May and AEMET knows that it is the beginning of something more: a brutal heat ridge

Oviedo has already broken its heat record for May and AEMET warns that this has only just begun

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Let’s stay with a figure: 34.3. It is, almost certainly, the most important data of the week. On Thursday, May 21, 2026, the thermometers of the city of Oviedo They recorded a temperature of 34.3 degrees. 1.8 ºC more than the highest temperature ever recorded in May in the capital of the Principality. AEMET is convinced that between today and the weekend will be reached again (or even exceeded) this temperature. And yet, this is only a tiny part of the story. Because the real story is that, in a region structurally protected by its oceanic climate, records are being broken in ways we would not have been able to imagine. And that’s without the country being in a ‘heat wave’. What is happening? Although There is some controversy with the namewhat is happening is called ‘heat dome‘. That is, a subtropical anticyclonic ridge, anomalously powerful for this time of year, which is trapping very warm air above our heads. Europe is bearing the brunt, it is true. Countries such as France, Germany, the Netherlands and the British Isles they are seeing temperatures between 10 and 15 degrees above normal. If everything goes as predicted by the models, the May records of half of Europe are going to explode on the 25th of this month. And, of course, we are noticing that. As the haze falls on the Canary Islands (right at the eastern vertex of the dome), a good part of the country will suffer considerable heat. We talk about more than 34 degrees in Asturias and the Basque Country and 38 in the Guadiana valleys. The Guadalquivir valley is already above 35. And, as I say, all this without heat waves. Despite the magnitude of the episode, AEMET does not rate it like a heat wave in peninsular Spain. It is not. We already know that the operational definition requires exceeding the 95th percentile of daily maximum temperatures for the July-August quarter for at least three days and, of course, we are not going to go to that extreme. What does all this heat tell us? Let’s be honest. For Andújar or Badajoz to reach 38 degrees on May 21 is rare, but not exceptional. But for Oviedo to reach 34.3 is a very different thing. It shows, above all, that the Cantabrian coast is beginning to stop being a “climate refuge.” Why is all this important? In addition to an underlying climate issue, this warm episode is important because it is dangerous. The first extreme heat of the year is the deadliest because the population has not gone through the period of physiological acclimatization produced by progressive exposure to summer heat. That is, because it is May and the Iberian summer has truly begun. Image | Tropical TidBits In Xataka | The Gulf Stream is dying. Someone’s idea to solve it dates back to the 1950s: closing the Bering Strait

After the hottest April since there are records, AEMET already foresees the following change: days of “winter atmosphere”

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After an unprecedented April in Spain (with temperatures more than three degrees above the average of the last 40 years), the Atlantic has decided to complicate our lives. In the coming days, a deep storm will move from the area around Iceland towards our coordinates, causing a sharp thermal drop between Saturday, May 9 and Monday, May 11. Are we facing a “cold wave” in May? No, nothing like that. We are not even facing something exceptional. Maritime polar air advections are a common pattern in Spanish springs. The strange thing is not the arrival of cold, the strange thing is how warm the air we have right now is. That is to say, we are going to notice the thermal dropYeah; but more because the temperatures are abnormally high (and we have become accustomed to them) than because the storm is colder than usual. It’s not her, it’s us. And here is the problem. As far as we know, climate change does not increase the frequency of polar irruptions in May, but it does increase their potential damage by advancing flowering, budding and fruit set. The paradox arises that exactly the same cold as any previous year can generate enormous destruction. What can we expect? Wednesday 6: The DANA that has been giving us problems so far this week is on its way to reintegrating into general circulation and is moving towards France. Thursday 7 – Friday 8: Here a new cold storm comes into action that will hit the west of Portugal, causing some days that are “very warm for the season”, according to AEMET. Friday the 8th: An associated Atlantic front will advance towards the Peninsula and we will begin to see its effects in the form of storms throughout the north. The accumulated ones will not be very large, but they will not be anecdotal either. Saturday 9 – Sunday 10: The party starts here. The storm will fully reach the Peninsula and, after a warm Thursday and Friday, the temperature drop will be abrupt. Tiempo.com talks about a thermal drop between 8 and 10 degrees. Starting Monday the 11th: With the available data, it seems reasonable to expect the cold environment to last a few more days. However, it is early to say. What AEMET says. The Agency It doesn’t say ‘polar’ at any point.but its characterization is very clear: speaks of the episode as a change from “high temperatures for the season” to “winter atmosphere” in a matter of 24-48 hours. It is very difficult to overcome the very strange month of January that we are experiencing, but 2026 is willing to try. Image | BenBaso In Xataka | The current that warms Europe will weaken by 51% before the end of the century. And Spain, according to experts, is already beginning to notice

We have been thinking for 40 years that Spain escaped Chernobyl because it was far away. AEMET has discovered that it was pure luck

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“When the lava enters the tanks, it will cause approximately 7,000 cubic meters of water to overheat and evaporate, causing a significant thermal explosion. Our estimates are between two and four megatons. It will destroy absolutely everything within a 30-kilometer radius, including the three remaining reactors at Chernobyl. Then, all the radioactive material in the nuclei will be ejected with virulence and propagated by a large seismic wave. It can reach approximately 200 kilometers and could be lethal to the entire population of kyiv and much of Minsk. The radiation release will be immense and will impact Soviet Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, as well as Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania and East Germany.” Since, to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster, AEMET published meteorological reconstruction that explained why Spain was left out of the radioactive cloud that affected a good part of Europe, I can’t forget those words from the miniseries which HBO released a few years ago. Mostly because it was pure luck. Pure luck? But Ukraine is very far away. That’s what we used to think, that Spain was spared the hardest part of the Chernobyl hit because we were so far away. However, data from meteorologist Benito Jose Fuentes They say something else: three successive atmospheric reconfigurations that, at the critical moment, sent the radioactive cloud in another direction. But let’s go step by step. Indeed, on April 26, 1986, the Chernobyl nuclear power plant became an unstable “pressure cooker” whose explosion spread radiation throughout much of the continent. In fact, that radiation reached Spain shortly after: there is evidence of air filters in Valencia that detected the radioactivity on May 2, 3 and 4. However, we avoided the worst of the blow. According to Fuentes Lópezthe peninsula was at least twice (on April 29 and the days before May 2) “one turn of the wind” away from receiving a direct blow. Reconstructing the disaster. Sources Lopez has published a simplified simulation that reconstructs on a cartographic scale the evolution of the wind at medium and high levels of the atmosphere. This simulation is what gives us the fundamental keys. To begin with, at midday on April 26, a high pressure ridge extended between the Chernobyl zone and Scandinavia. This caused the winds (at 1,700 meters above sea level) to channel the pollutants to the north and Belarus, the Baltic republics, Sweden and Finland took the first hit. The world found out what was happening, precisely, through the sensors of a Swedish nuclear power plant two days later. Spain plays it. On April 29, the pattern changed and a storm in the Mediterranean (and a ridge in Portugal) turned the wind towards Central Europe. According to Fuentes López’s simulations, with this new direction it was a matter of hours before the radioactivity reached Spain. However, between May 1 and 2, a trough pushed the radioactive cloud towards Great Britain (and the Portuguese ridge acted as a wall that diverted the rest of the smaller clouds towards Italy and the Balkans). A reminder. The curious thing about all this is that, according to AEMET datathe dispersion was due to higher atmospheric waves at high levels and not to surface patterns such as storms and anticyclones. That is to say, the work (in addition to a mind-blowing work of atmospheric history) is a reminder that we normally relate to a small part of the weather. That, of course, is a mistake. The atmosphere is a very complex creature full of levels, teleconnections and strange relationships. We are at stake understanding it better. And I am no longer talking about climate change, or phenomena of that type. I’m saying that in most cases, as we already explained many expertsthe profound psychological, social and cultural consequences “turned out to be a much bigger problem than the radiation.” At the climatic level they will also be. And we really don’t know how to handle them well. Image | AEMET In Xataka | We believed that the “elephant’s foot” was the most radioactive point in Chernobyl reactor 4. we were wrong

AEMET points this year to the opposite

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We are already in Holy Week and the question that is asked a lot during all holy days is the same: is it going to rain? And it is no wonder, because practically every year during Holy Week there is some day that is quite bad and forces the much-loved processions to be suspended, causing sad scenes of people crying for not seeing the image to which they have devotion or for not being able to show off the work of an entire year. An exceptional year. But this year This does not seem to be the case, since, after the logical doubts of the previous weeks, the AEMET has confirmed that climatological stability will be the norm this Holy Week. The sun as the norm. The dominant note of this Holy Week will be thermal recovery, causing the cold fronts to be left behind and maximum temperatures to experience again. a general rise in most of the country, leaving us with a fully spring atmosphere. In the case of the regions of Andalusia and the Levant, they will be in luck as they will benefit most from this rise, causing the thermometers to be at a very pleasant 20-25 ºC. In the case of the center and north of the peninsula, they will also see mild weather, moving in a range of between 15 and 20 ºC. There is small print. Just because we are talking about general stability does not mean that the entire country will have clear skies. As is usual when Atlantic anticyclones dominate, the extreme north and some areas of the Mediterranean will bear the brunt, although without major storms in sight that are practically reduced to zero probability. In this way, the AEMET maintains active warnings in areas such as Empordà and the Balearic Islands due to strong winds from the north, which will alter the maritime situation. Something that has already resulted in the closure of the main port of Menorca. Some exception. Until Holy Thursday, the weather map will leave us with some weak rainfall on the Cantabrian coast, and there could also be scattered showers in the Balearic Islands and the southeast of the peninsula. Furthermore, the intense cold is relegated to the mountains, meaning that only weak frosts and some light snowfall are expected, but at altitudes above 1,500 meters, affecting the Pyrenees and the Iberian System. At the end of the week. Unfortunately, weather doesn’t mix well with long-term planning. This means that right now, for April 4 and 5, the predictive models point to possible instability that suggests some rain in the west and south of the peninsula, but nowhere near something widespread in a large area of ​​the region. But the a priori idea that we should have is that the sun will prevail in a good part of the peninsula, and will ensure that all devotees can enjoy a good Holy Week. In Xataka | The Polytechnic University of Valencia has fulfilled the ancient dream of farmers: predicting drought

A polar air mass will descend over Spain just before Easter. AEMET is already talking about polar cold and significant snowfall

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The key day will be Wednesday the 26th. It will be then when, at the gates of Holy Week, a mass of polar air will enter the national territory leaving cold and snow during the last week of march. And yes, that’s what matters to us right now; but the general context is much more complicated. But let’s talk about the cold. Starting on Wednesday, an undulation of the polar jet will push the anticyclonic ridge towards the north of the Atlantic and a very deep polar trough will descend over Europe. This will generate several storms. In Spain, the models they don’t agree. While the European model is committed to a colder and more intense scenario; The American believes that the irruption will be limited to the north, the east and the Balearic Islands. Be that as it may, we are talking about an isotherm of -4 degrees in the heart of the peninsula, more than significant snowfall in the Cantabrian Mountains, the Pyrenees and the Iberian system (at least in the north). This is just what we hope for. And skepticism is more than justified: the 2025-2026 storm season has broken all records totaling (to date) 19 named systems. Furthermore, this winter has been the third wettest of the 21st century and January was the wettest month since records began. The uncertainty is, understandably and unjustifiably, greater than normal. We must not forget that “Holy Week” is synonymous with millions of trips, thousands of outdoor activities throughout the country and hundreds of sectors that critically depend on it. But it’s not a surprise either. According to AEMET climate dataBetween the end of March and the beginning of April, it rains some day in 70-80% of recorded years. That is to say, the distinctive thing this year will not be the rain, but the cold. The good news. If we pay attention to the medium-term models, everything seems to indicate that the anticyclone It will recover ground around April 1 or 2. That is, we can expect the weather to be more stable in the second half of Holy Week. Of course, the uncertainties are great and, as the old saying goes, “you should not sell the bear’s skin before hunting it.” Interesting days are coming. Image | Tropical TidBits In Xataka | The snowiest ski resort in Europe right now is not in the Alps or the Pyrenees: it is in Granada

We have been hearing talk for days about the “storm of the century”, this is what AEMET says about it (and about the trend of fattening meteorological headlines)

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It’s curious. A “storm of the century” concept has been around for days and, in the last hoursa date has even been set: February 25 would be the moment in which the storm would reach the country’s coasts. And I say that all this is curious because, in short, it is inaccurate, a ‘journalistic hook’: a lie after all. This 25th changes time, yes. But what the models describe is more like an Atlantic front (with rain in Galicia and some instability in the Canary Islands), than a truly exceptional episode. But let’s take a look because there are more things to take into account. What do the models say? That is the big question: AEMET and the rest of the specialized media draw a very different scenario. Galicia stands out with relevant accumulations (we are talking about 20–40 l/m² in the area from A Coruña to Pontevedra), but little else: in the rest of the areas where it rains, the quantities are much more discreet. In most places, almost testimonials. On the other hand, it is also possible that it will rain in the Canary Islands, but (unlike the peninsula) it will be a DANA in Morocco. And then? So, nothing. We won’t have big announcements; neither by winds, nor by rain, nor by coastal problems. AEMET is worriedYeah; but due to the persistent rainfall that may accumulate in the northwest. For the rest, if there is any news on the table, it is that a phenomenon that has been somewhat missing is going to return: the haze. There will be no “storm of the century” and that, of course, is excellent news. After all, we come from a winter that has been nothing more than a huge chain of storms. This has led to a whole process of social desensitization that is forcing popular meteorological information to raise the threshold until it borders on (or settles into) sensationalism. And it’s not the best time to do it: as AEMET itself points outit is possible that we are approaching a new era of precipitation in Spain. Climate change is increasing precipitation extremes globally. It doesn’t seem like a good idea to play ‘Peter and the Wolf’ just when things are starting to change. Image | Torsten Dederichs In Xataka | We already know exactly how much climate change was to blame for DANA in Valencia (and the figures are devastating)

AEMET prepares for “the highest hydrometeorological impacts in the world”

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As said Kevin Killeen“February is the worst month of the year, but it is an honest month.” And February 2026 is no exception in its honesty: the models gave historic rainfall throughout the Atlantic coast and the south of the peninsula and the rainfall is already here. The jet stream is going to pass over us so “constant and uniform” throughout the week. But it is not just the “concatenation of storms generated” by this, it is that “they are going to be fed with high moisture content” that comes directly from the Gulf of Mexico. What would have been excellent news three years ago has become a huge problem: this succession of storms arrives at a time when the soil cannot absorb even one more drop. A truly exceptional accumulation. To land the data, the latest models accumulated dan for this week of more than 100-150mm and up to 300 in areas of Galicia, Extremadura and Andalusia. In the case of Andalusia, in fact, the situation will be very complicated due to the extension of the Guadalquivir valley and the composition of its soil. More than 200mm are expected at the head of the river and a homogeneous average of 100mm in the basin. That, added to the fact that “The soil is clay and its use is agricultural.“, the filtration is very scarce. This has turned the flooding of the rivers and streams in the Guadalquivir basin and adjacent areas (such as the Guadalete or the Mediterranean basins of Granada) into a ticking bomb. “The highest hydrometeorological impacts in the world”. As Martín León explainedis not a figure of speech, it is an enormous risk: the highest impacts in the world are expected. In fact, as the hours pass, the predictions they seem to get worse and floods, overflows and landslides seem inevitable. The first symptoms of flooding, in fact, have already been detected in Andalusia via satellite. How normal is this? To emphasize that we are not facing a normal situation, it is enough to take a look at the ECMWF EFIthe index that measures how extreme the atmospheric phenomena are: the entire south-southwest of the peninsula is in red, the highest level. Rain on wet. But, as I say, that is not the main problem. The main problem is that, after these days of heavy rain, the soil is extremely saturatedthe reservoirs are being forced to drain and the system’s retention capacity is at minimum levels. In mountain areas, water it’s starting to flow directly from the ground. To this we can add that the Pyrenees and the rest of the northern mountains they have a historic snow pack. We are, as all models show, in the middle of a perfect storm. This means that the Hydrographic Confederations will have a lot of work and the problems have only just begun. Special attention will have to be paid to rivers, streams and areas at risk of land displacement. Complicated hours are approaching and any precaution will be insufficient. Image | WXCharts In Xataka | Spain is preparing for a “festival” of storms in February: with more rain than normal and hardly any cold

AEMET has set an expiration date on Borrasca Harry. But what’s coming from Greenland is about to begin

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On January 17 and 18, AEMET issued a series of special warnings due to a Mediterranean storm that has been causing problems in the Balearic Sea for days. But, in those notices, there was something else: a problem. And no, it’s not just that we are going to the most unstable week of what we have had in winter. And then? In those noticesAEMET describes a blocking pattern that was elongating a trough and favoring a retrograde DANA. That was Harry, a high-impact storm forming in the Mediterranean (and already is leaving snow near the coast). According to AEMET estimatesthe accumulations can be on the order of 200 liters in 48 hours in the Girona area and more than 20 centimeters of new snow in southeastern Iberian. But Harry ends tomorrow and that’s where the problems begin. The jet returns. Because, in parallel, the anticyclonic blockade between Greenland and the Scandinavian peninsula will interrupt the zonal flow and force the polar jet to lower latitude. In fact, it will descend so much that it will focus directly on Spain, guiding fronts and cold masses from the north. Or, rather, we are talking about cold advection with synoptic trajectories. These models still lack consistency, of course: but the models and outputs are converging in this scenario. What should we expect? Right now, the point of greatest risk It is the Mediterranean coast. Although Harry already has an expiration date, it is a storm that can be very intense locally and can cause problems in short basins (with rapid floods). Not to mention the difficulties at the coastal level and the gusts of wind. Then, if we are a little lucky, it will be reactivated.Atlantic storm machine and a train of storms will begin to enter from the west. If we are unlucky, the cold will return. But, well, at the gates of February it is still within what is expected. Image | ECMWF In Xataka | After the cold comes something much more problematic: the explosive cyclogenesis that AEMET predicts for the Mediterranean

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