AEMET has set an expiration date on Borrasca Harry. But what’s coming from Greenland is about to begin

On January 17 and 18, AEMET issued a series of special warnings due to a Mediterranean storm that has been causing problems in the Balearic Sea for days. But, in those notices, there was something else: a problem. And no, it’s not just that we are going to the most unstable week of what we have had in winter. And then? In those noticesAEMET describes a blocking pattern that was elongating a trough and favoring a retrograde DANA. That was Harry, a high-impact storm forming in the Mediterranean (and already is leaving snow near the coast). According to AEMET estimatesthe accumulations can be on the order of 200 liters in 48 hours in the Girona area and more than 20 centimeters of new snow in southeastern Iberian. But Harry ends tomorrow and that’s where the problems begin. The jet returns. Because, in parallel, the anticyclonic blockade between Greenland and the Scandinavian peninsula will interrupt the zonal flow and force the polar jet to lower latitude. In fact, it will descend so much that it will focus directly on Spain, guiding fronts and cold masses from the north. Or, rather, we are talking about cold advection with synoptic trajectories. These models still lack consistency, of course: but the models and outputs are converging in this scenario. What should we expect? Right now, the point of greatest risk It is the Mediterranean coast. Although Harry already has an expiration date, it is a storm that can be very intense locally and can cause problems in short basins (with rapid floods). Not to mention the difficulties at the coastal level and the gusts of wind. Then, if we are a little lucky, it will be reactivated.Atlantic storm machine and a train of storms will begin to enter from the west. If we are unlucky, the cold will return. But, well, at the gates of February it is still within what is expected. Image | ECMWF In Xataka | After the cold comes something much more problematic: the explosive cyclogenesis that AEMET predicts for the Mediterranean

The good news is that Aemet already knows when the Jana Borrasca will leave. The bad is that 10 more days of rain await us

As of today, Monday, the BORRASCA JANA It will lose strength. But that does not mean that Aemet Go withdraw your notices by rains in half a country. And it is that the high -impact formation will continue with us generating instability, cloudy skies and generalized rainfall. Although, in reality, this seems only the beginning. Rain, rain and more rain. Although the eastern facade of the peninsula continues with His particular viacrucis (Especially in Alicante), the screws seem to have changed in the rest of the country: the largest accumulated will be in the south, both in the Atlantic and Eastern Andalusia aspect. Also in the central system. On the contrary, where the rains are less likely it is in the Cantabrian and the Northeast. In the Canary Islands there will be cloudy skies and scattered showers. But this will have an end … right? Of course he will have it, the problem is that we do not know when it will be. Jana is going to weaken And that, perhaps, we give us a little respite. But, as Aemet points out, “the rain will continue during the week of March 10 to 16”. After the borrasca jana“new fronts associated with Atlantic storms will sweep our country, with rainfall in large areas.” Again, the most abundant seems to be in the environment of the central and west system of Andalusia. How is this possible? A few days ago we counted that It was being established A huge blocking anticyclone between Greenland and Scandinavia. That was very good news because I was going to force the Atlantic storms to turn south. To this has been added something else: that the temperature of the surface water of the ocean is above the average and, thanks to the joint work between the blocking anticyclone and that of the Azores, an atmospheric river has been articulated that insuffes us with moisture from the Caribbean. The result is 10 days of generalized rains. That is to say, An unusually wet March. Is something of Holy Week know? This year, Holy Week falls between April 13 and 21. That is, there is a lot of time left. However, Aemet has published A climatological analysis. Unlike the predictions, what this type of analysis is investigated is the “standard time” for those days taking into account the historic. For example, According to the agency“In most of the southern peninsular half the average temperatures vary between 13 and 17 ºC” while “in the northern half we find lower values, with temperatures near the 9 ° C on the plateau and close to the 0 ºC in the summits.” Aemet The problem is that, as we can see in the superior graph, these “spring dates are characterized by their great climatic variability.” In recent years, temperatures have been high and, a priori, it is what we should expect. But there we have the year 2012 to show us that the situation can turn around when we least expect them. Image | ECMWF In Xataka | Aemet special notices are just the beginning: everything points to an extremely rainy March in Spain

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