AEMET

AEMET warns that, after the cold, something much more problematic comes

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The Mediterranean asks to speak and the polar jet seems ready to give it all the prominence: if everything goes as planned, after a very cold weekend, What is happening? That the polar jet is contorting again and, this time, it is going to turn so far south that a good part of Spain is going to be in the cold zone. We will change the warm and humid air masses of the Gulf for cold masses that, since they are not arctic, will also have a lot of humidity. For practical purposes, that does not stop the “train of storms” that was affecting us; but its temperature. Therefore, the “storms, fronts, wind and rough seas“will be accompanied, once again, by a drop in temperatures: snow is, in fact, expected in the north of the Sahara. That and a strong storm in the middle of the Mediterranean. But let’s start with the cold. During the weekend (accompanied by that contortion of the jet) orA mass of cold air will invade Spain: Not only will the minimum temperatures drop and frost will return to a large part of the country, but the maximum temperatures will suddenly collapse. The great Mediterranean storm. Although on Saturday the 17th there will be movement in the Gulf of Valencia and the Balearic Sea, the strong will begin on Monday the 19th. That day, the undulation of the polar jet has a good chance of setting up a very powerful cyclogenesis. A cyclogenesis is an intensification of a low and, the Mediterranean knows a lot about that: the arrival of cold air at altitude over a fairly warm sea only needs a good shot of humidity to transform into a very intense storm. These days we will have all the elements on the table. And what can we expect? The models are beginning to converge in a full-fledged winter storm in the Balearic Islands and the Mediterranean coast. Although, as Martín León explains“it could leave abundant rain and snow in medium-high areas in the eastern part of the Peninsula”; The truth is that the position and intensity of the storm is still unclear. And those uncertainties will make the difference between a cold calm or a real winter storm. Image | ECMWF In Xataka | The soils of Spain are already saturated with water. And now a new train of storms threatens something worse

AEMET says ‘goodbye’ to the polar cold during the remainder of January

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After the cold and the passing of the Goretti stormSpain changes screen. And he does it for the rest of the month and who knows if for the rest of the year. The polar cold is over, although we are not very clear what is coming next. What is going to happen? As we explained a few days agothey spoke of a deep trough that was coming in the direction of the Peninsula. This south-southwest advection is bringing “tropical maritime air”: that is, air that is warmer and more humid than normal. For this reason, the morning frost has receded this morning throughout the country and, therefore, there are thermal anomalies approaching 8ºC above average in areas of the interior and the northeastern half. Bottom line, the cold is melting and a time is coming”more pleasant“. Although it’s not ‘spring’ all that glitters. At least, when it comes to risks. Let’s think about it for a moment: Galicia can receive up to 150 liters per square meter these days and, indeed, it is not something disproportionate. But the soil is already saturated with water and that amount can very easily produce floods, landslides or local flooding. To that, furthermore, you have to add the thaw. What has changed? Last week we said that the specific consequences of this atmospheric movement were still not clear; but the uncertainties are already dissipating: as Sergio Escama explainedwhat the models indicate is that the polar jet that had been very wavy in recent days is straightening and that, right now, facilitates the entry of air masses from the Atlantic (and limits strong thermal inversions that collapse night temperatures). For this reason, the map of Spain is little by little recovering its color. What does all this translate into? What will it do? less cold than usual for this time of year and, above all, less than what we have spent in recent weeks. However, we should not overreact: we are not talking about spring. There is still a lot of winter left. After all, although this year it may be surprising, this type of “Atlantic mode” is a classic of the peninsular winter. AND it’s not bad news: These settings are synonymous with water. For the rest: the classics return in 2026, which is still unknown. Image | Tropical Tidbits n Xataka | While the snow devours half of Europe, there is a place where it is 27ºC and on the beach in the middle of January: Greece

After a weekend of floods, deaths and evacuations, AEMET confirms that calm is coming for the New Year

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Málaga, Granada, Murcia and the south of the Valencian Community have passed a complicated weekend with floods, deaths and displaced people. In fact, in some areas of the southeast the worst has not happened yet. And people are tired: «”I feel like selling everything and leaving town: the rains are increasingly torrential”, said a neighbor from Cartama (Málaga). However, we will forget again. We will start the year cold, yes. But also with a strong anticyclone, with fog and frost. There will be no rain except somewhere in the south/east and the Balearic Islands; something that with the night movements of New Year’s Eve, is good news. However, the models start to draw that with the New Year there can also be a change in pattern. A change of pattern? Starting Thursday, as explained by Duncan Wingenthe models contemplate “the rise of the Atlantic ridge towards Iceland and Greenland”: it is what experts call the “Atlantic ridge.” It is a tongue of high pressure at altitude that bulges over the Atlantic and extends towards high latitudes. It is a wall that diverts the current from the west. What it represents for Spain. It’s hard to saythe truth. The effect on the peninsula depends on where the dorsal ends up placed. Or, close the Atlantic corridor and we have a few days of stable, dry and cold weather on the surface. Or, it favors the entry of cold from the north with thermal drops, a winter sensation and snow. Or, finally, the storm corridor opens with the consequent intrusion of Atlantic fronts from the Ocean. That is, rain and a slightly milder climate. What should we expect? It is a great unknown: enormous. And taking into account that it is the key phenomenon to understand what is going to happen in the coming weeks in southern Europe, it is important. Therefore, we have to continue monitoring them closely. Euro-Atlantic regimes modulate temperatures, energy demands and meteorological alerts. The Atlantic Crest is a piece of that puzzle and there are many things that depend on it. It is still surprising because, well, for now we are only going to see a deep, wintery cry. Image | PolarWx In Xataka | La Niña is going to be meteorologically “less intense” than we expected. And that actually hides a problem.

AEMET confirms a collapse and snow at 1,000 meters to start Christmas

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If you thought you had too much of a coat this week, now you’re going to have to think twice. After a few marked days due to unusually mild temperatures for mid-Decemberthe weather is going to change radically with the arrival of the peak days of Christmas. A thermal collapse. So far, the month of December has seen some really warm days where you could easily be out in the sun without a jacket. This is something that has been seen especially in parts of the Mediterranean, Almería and even in the Cantabrian Sea with thermometers that have reached to touch 20 degrees. However, it already has an expiration date. Starting on December 21, coinciding with the official start of astronomical winter, a notable thermal drop is expected. According to AEMET itself This change will not be gradual, but will feel like a drastic collapse in thermometers by this polar jet that arrives from the north that will leave minimum temperatures in the negative and that in general will cause a thermal drop of 3-5ºC. Precipitation map for Sunday, December 21 | Source: AEMET Rain and snow. Before the great drop in temperatures, we will see abundant rains in our territory due to the entry of a new front from the Atlantic. This will mean that this weekend we will see abundant rain in a good part of the peninsula, with special emphasis on northern Spain where significant storms are expected for next Sunday. The Galician coasts are where we will have to keep a close eye, as these precipitations will be accompanied by very strong gusts of wind, which will lead to the appearance of waves that can exceed seven meters in height. Appearance of snow. With the drop in temperature, rain can end up turning into snow in part of the peninsula. In this case, the snow level is expected to drop to 1,000-1,200 meters in the northern third. The most affected areas They will be the communities of Galicia, Asturias, Cantabria, La Rioja, Castilla y León, the Community of Madrid and Castilla – La Mancha. This is bad news, except for lovers of a Christmas under a layer of white. And just this weekend a new operation begins, coinciding with the start of the Christmas holidays. This is something that can cause significant traffic delays in the northern third of the country. Christmas week. We already have Christmas Eve almost here, and there are many eyes on to the weather forecast. For now, the progress that the AEMET has given us after the front on the 21st is that we will have a cold environment with significant night frosts across the peninsula and widespread, although not extreme, rainfall, which will be present especially in the south of the peninsula. But this is something that will not affect the Canary Islands, which will maintain stable weather and normal conditions for the time in which we find ourselves. An extreme change. There is a climate prediction coming from Europe that sees a much more extreme and unusual scenario that may or may not occur. Specifically, the ECMWF points out that there may be heavy snowfall in the province of Seville, Huelva and the south of Badajos on Christmas Eve. This would be something historic, since snow is a strange event to see in Seville, where there has not been a solid snowfall since 1954. That is why this European prediction is really crazy, which logically can change as the days go by, leaving the chances of snow in Seville a disappointment, despite the fact that the low temperatures are going to continue. Images | Osman Ran In Xataka | Lightning seems like a normal thing: in reality we have been trying to understand it for years and we have achieved it in a laboratory

The meteorological winter has already begun for the AEMET. And now we have another problem with the DGT beacons

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The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has not waited for the solstice to start winter. A season that, meteorologically speaking, extends from December 1 to February 28. Three months of cold await us (although less and less)rain, snow and various inclemencies. This year, it is inevitable to ask ourselves if the cold may affect the V16 beacons of the DGT. The answer is a resounding yes. Resistance up to -10ºC. All approved V16 beacons must have with a series of requirements. And one of them talks precisely about resistance. There are two things to keep in mind here: the IP rating and what temperature range they can operate in. New connected beacons must have at least IP54 certification. That is, resistance to dust and splashes of water. But they must also offer adequate operation within a wide range of temperatures. Specifically, between -10ºC and 50ºC. It is enough even If we leave the car in full sun in summerbut in winter it gets a little more complicated. BUT. Theoretically, Spain is not a very cold country. But although it is not at the level of the Nordic countries, in certain places or times the thermometer can fall below -10ºC. If we are going skiing, if we are driving on a mountain road on a particularly cold day or if we are considering a getaway to one of the “refrigerators from Spain”things get complicated. For example, Molina de Aragón (Guadalajara) is considered the coldest town in Spain and has the milestone of having reached -28.2 degrees. In these types of places and situations, the resistance to -10ºC of the beacons is insufficient, so their connectivity may stop working, thus losing virtual visibility, or even fail to turn on. Another problem: snow. Beyond the problems caused by extreme temperatures, there is another phenomenon that in the winter season can interfere with the beacons. Much has been said about the visibility problems of these devices in broad daylight, in fog or on very tight curves, but snow can also become another obstacle. Beacons should be placed on the highest part of the vehicle where possible, usually the roof. If the snow settles, it can cover it and thus kill the physical visibility it provides us. The alternative. The V16 beacons aim to improve safety on the roads, warning other drivers of the obstacle posed by a car stopped on them. In the event that the beacon does not work due to problems with temperatures or snow, the option left is to contact the emergency services via mobile phone. The V16 beacons, which will be mandatory from January 1, 2026, are not without controversy. From the scams around them until accusations from groups of the Civil Guardthe DGT He had to admit his mistakes and has already explained that will be flexible with fines. Cover image | Generated with Gemini In Xataka | FACUA believes that a lot of V16 beacons “approved by the DGT” are not legal. And there’s a way to sum it up: fraud. In Xataka | Living 1,300 kilometers from the North Pole: a Catalan tells of his experience in the northernmost city in the world

AEMET has just talked about the December long weekend and it is bittersweet news because the “good weather” in December always has a trick

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Yes ‘negative NOA‘, yes ‘storm train‘, but what AEMET says is that, during the bridge (after some persistent rain in the north), what we are going to have is a predominance of sun and higher than normal temperatures. How is it possible? What dark atmospheric dynamics are conspiring to give us good weather on the Constitution Bridge? The rhombus phenomenon. That’s what he called it meteorologist Luismi Pérez on Cadena Ser and the truth is that the explanation is so visual that it can help us understand what is happening. “Rhombus” is a colloquial way of defining an isobaric configuration that diverts the cold to North America and gives stability, little rain and high temperatures to our country. And what does it take for that to happen? Four masses of air are needed to achieve this: a robust anticyclone in Newfoundland and Greenland another anticyclone in the Mediterranean area a storm in the Azores and another in the Scandinavian peninsula In the image above it is still difficult to see, but arranged on the isobar map “they form an approximate figure of a rhombus.” Why it is important. Meteorologically speaking, the rhombus describes a type of atmospheric block very characteristic: a reconfiguration of the polar jet and the trajectory of the storms that takes us away from the coldest scenarios. Yeah the face is the train of stormsthis is the cross: short periods of stability and good temperatures. What we can expect in the coming days. As Pérez explainedthis rhombus “makes” the very cold air accumulated in Greenland slide towards the west; that is, towards North America, instead of falling on Europe. In addition, Spain (being under the influence of the Azores storm and the Mediterranean anticyclone) is assured of westerly and southwesterly winds, which are more temperate and pleasant. What we can expect in the long term. Because in the background there is something more serious: changes in the atmospheric circulation of the Atlantic Ocean. That is to say, the increase in the number of episodes of stability, clear skies and absence of fronts in autumn and winter. Something that can be perceived as “good weather”, but that aggravates the structural drought and complicates water, agricultural and energy planning. Luckily, it looks like it won’t last long. Just enough to let us enjoy the bridge Image | ECMWF In Xataka | The most beautiful, exciting and hopeful thing about November has come out of England and it is a weather forecast

AEMET knows that what is coming is not just a train of storms, it is a ‘master class’ on how winter works in Spain today

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This beginning of December comes with a train of Atlantic storms, several cold fronts in a row, snow, wind and a lot of sudden thermal changes. But it goes much further than all this: what we are going to see is a perfect example of how winter in Spain works today (in the midst of the climate crisis). What is going to happen? The quick summary is that the start of December 2025 in Spain will be marked by a very active Atlantic circulation. And that takes the form of a “squall train” that will cross the Peninsula during the first 10 days of the month. The most immediate will be a cold front that will leave abundant rains in Galicia and the Cantabrian Sea (with local accumulations of up to 50 l/m²), snow above 1000 meters and strong gusts of wind on the coast. But, as I say, it is the first of at least four. The reign of the negative NAO. We said it a few days ago, the European Weather Forecast Center pointed because the first days of the month we were going to be in negative NAO. The ‘NAO’ is the ‘North Atlantic Oscillation‘ is what meteorologists call the relentless fight between the Azores anticyclone and the Icelandic low, the two great atmospheric phenomena that govern the meteorology of the North Atlantic. When the index we use to “measure who is winning” is negative, the Azores anticyclone is weaker than normal and, for this reason, it cannot block deep Atlantic storms. The direct consequence is that they circulate further south than normal: right at our latitude. This is exactly what is happening. For this reason (and as a novelty) “squall train” is not a funny journalistic metaphor: there are four very active fronts heading towards Spain. And it goes without saying that this is good news: we are coming from very dry and irregular autumns and, despite the cushion of dammed water that we havea phenomenon of this type is going to be really good for us. It remains to be seen if we will be able to take advantage of the rainfall that will arrive. Why do I say this is “a perfect example of how it works today (in the middle of the climate crisis) winter”? Because although the pattern of “chained storms” is classic of the Atlantic winter, these dynamics are encountering a warmer basal situation: the atlantic ocean and the Mediterranean Sea is warmer (and therefore have more energy). It’s “business as usual”, but at higher speeds. In this situation, in fact, a scenario is feared for Europe in which there is less rain in summer in the Mediterranean and more episodes of extreme rain in the cold seasons. This feeling that everything is very similar to the same as always, but in a completely different way, is very strange. Image | Tropical TidBits In Xataka | The most beautiful, exciting and hopeful thing about November has come out of England and it is a weather forecast

AEMET has released its prediction for winter and confirms the trend that is no longer an anomaly: a winter “without cold”

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Although we can keep in mind that winter does not begin until next December 21, coinciding with the winter solsticefor meteorology now we have started with the station from today. A season in which we could all expect a great spell of polar cold to be at home with a blanket and watching a series on television. But the AEMET has lowered these forecasts taking into account to what we experienced in previous years. Via a post on X The AEMET has welcomed this new winter 2025-2026, but with bad news behind it: it will be much warmer than usual with a high probability. We are not talking about individual “summer” days, but rather a robust statistical signal that covers the entire quarter (December-January-February). What we used to call an anomaly, the data are beginning to call the norm: winter in Spain is fading. Heat map. AEMET’s seasonal prediction It doesn’t leave much room for doubt. According to probabilistic models, the average temperature will be in the warm zone throughout the country. Specifically, for the AEMET the eastern peninsula and the Balearic Islands have a probability of a much warmer winter that exceeds 70%. In the case of the Canary Islands and the Balearic Islands, this is where the “zero zone” of this warming will be found, with a very pronounced thermal increase with respect to its normal values. In the rest of the peninsula, the probability is around 50%, which continues to be a sign that points to having a winter that is as normal as possible with respect to what we have seen in previous years. The rain. If in terms of temperatures it seems that we are not going to have very good news with a high probability, in terms of precipitation it seems that we must be optimistic. A priori, the models suggest that we will not have an extremely dry winter but nor will it be too wet. And the rainfall seems to be close to the average, although with great variability. Not all months of this winter will rain in the same way, emphasizing especially the second half of winter, that is, the end of January and February, where the models point to the arrival of dynamic phases with fronts and storms. This is something that may fit with studies on the loss of sea ice in the Arctic, which alters atmospheric circulation and may lead to much more “wet or variable” winters in the Iberian Peninsula, breaking the patterns that we saw in our environment. 28 days of “no winter”. To understand why the AEMET is so sure of this forecast, you have to look in the rearview mirror. The most recent reportslike Climate Central, already warned that last winter Spain experienced an average of 28 days with temperatures above the historical average. To do this, experts focus on reducing the days where we have temperatures below zero with a sharp drop in the days where there is frost. Furthermore, cities like Valencia are seeing how urban centers are turning into ovens even in the middle of winter. And it is a serious danger, as the CLIVAR-Spain report warns that this amplification of warming and the alteration of winter variability pose a critical challenge for our ecosystems, which need rest from the winter cold for their biological cycles. Goodbye to the historic cold. What AEMET is telling us with this forecast for 2025-2026 is that the atmosphere in Spain has more and more accumulated energy. Studies by Funcas and analysis by AEMET itself corroborate that the decrease in snow coverage and the increase in warm episodes are not temporary, but in the end they are the reality we face. We are facing a scenario where winters do not disappear, but they do “soften” until they become unrecognizable compared to those of three decades ago. If you have thermal clothing prepared for this year, it is possible that, except for occasional episodes of storms in February, it will stay in the closet. Images | Thomas Holmes Immo Wegmann In Xataka | “Three days of pure cold”: while the world looks at the polar vortex, bad news accumulates for AEMET

Half of Spain is on alert due to snow and yet AEMET has not issued a single red notice: what is happening here?

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“Historical Polar Beast“, “New Philomena“, “the polar storm that threatens Spain“: Much has been written about the intrusion of cold air that is causing drops in temperatures, snowfall and trouble throughout the north of the country. And not always without reason. In fact, the Junta de Castilla y León has declared the alert for snowfall in the provinces of Burgos, León, Palencia and Soria. And yet, AEMET has not issued a red weather warning. What is happening here? QTo start: everything is working normally. And we must not forget that AEMET and Civil Protection do not do the same work. The State Meteorological Agency is limited to issuing weather warnings that are based on physical and objective thresholds. Civil Protection, on the other hand, declares the alert based on the expected impact (on the population and/or infrastructure). In this sense, they are not things that can be linked directly. And what is happening these days is a textbook example. AEMET has not activated red warnings, simply because snowfall exceeding the highest thresholds is not expected. Yes, the snow level had dropped a lot… but in reality, no one expected a lot of snow to fall. This does not mean, as is evident, that it is not an important episode; Only it is not an extreme episode in purely meteorological terms. In social terms, it is different. Because as Víctor Gonzalez explained There are a series of factors that make this relatively small winter storm something to take into account. To begin with, it is the first episode of snowfall at low levels of the season. As with heat waves in summer, the first ‘episodes’ are always more dangerous because they ‘catch’ the population unprepared. Especially when (as is happening now) that episode comes earlier than usual, when winter hasn’t even started yet. In addition, it coincides with very busy days (because we are talking about a very busy weekend). An important lesson: When we talk about meteorology, it doesn’t just matter how much snow falls, how hot it is going to be, or how much water a storm will dump. What really matters is when, where and on whom it falls. As Víctor González said“If this same episode occurred on a Tuesday in February, perhaps the alert would not have been declared.” Image | ECMWF | Alev Takil In Xataka | AEMET is clear about what we can expect from the polar storm that threatens Spain: the question is whether we are prepared

Aemet already has the list of names for the danas that should really worry us

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You have to prepare to keep track of ‘Marta’, ‘Samuel’ or ‘Claudia’. And they are not the protagonists of a new series, but the names that we could hear in the news throughout this fall and winter. All because the aemet has announced That from now on, great impact are going to be their own name, as with the storms. And it has more marketing than we believe behind. The announcement. Done Through its official channels and accompanied by a complete list of names that will be used from now on in collaboration with the meteorological services of Portugal (IPMA), France (Météo-France), Belgium (IRM) and Luxembourg (meteolux). The first Dana to be baptized will be ‘Alice’. But this movement, beyond the anecdote, raises a background question. Did we really need this system to understand that a dangerous storm is coming? Didn’t we have a perfectly settled term and feared by all? Yes, we are thinking about the “Cold drop“ List of names that will receive the DANAS of great impact in Spain. The differences. For years, Aemet meteorologists have fought a pedagogical battle for society to distinguish between Dana and Cold drop. They insisted that ‘Dana’ is the technical term that describes an isolated cold air bag in the high layers of the atmosphere. A relatively common phenomenon that does not always trigger torrential rains and catastrophes on the surface. However, for the general public, the concept remained diffuse. The word “Dana” did not have the evocative power or the warning load that the “cold drop” did have. The cold drop, although meteorologically inaccurate, it was a concept that everyone understood perfectly: It meant apocalyptic skies, torrential rains and floodsespecially in the Mediterranean arch. The problem. The Aemet has seen that using the term Dana for everything created a lot of confusion. On their own website, it points to “the appointment of the DANAS with great impact will help prevent them from being associated univocally with serious or catastrophic impacts.” That is, they seek to create a new category: the “Dana with name”, which would be the equivalent of the old and dreaded cold drop, leaving the term “Dana” (dry) for the general atmospheric phenomenon without serious consequences. Marketing strategy. Baptizing the Dana with names is a brilliant communication strategy without a doubt. Giving a first name to a meteorological phenomenon humanizes it, makes it a concrete and easy to continue in social networks and media. Without a doubt, it is much more effective to capture attention to say “the Dana ‘Benjamin’ is close to the coast” that “a system of low pressures associated with a Dana will cause instability.” And it is something that has already been shown. With the big storms that have received names such as ‘Filomena’ the reality is that they have been recorded in the collective memory and was associated with the impact it would have. Now this same effect wants to move to a phenomenon that aims to be quite common In our day to day. What we lose. The question is if, in the process, we are not losing a part of our popular meteorological culture. The “cold drop” was a term of ours, loaded with history and experience. It was the definitive notice that passed from grandparents to grandchildren. Now, it is replaced by an international and standardized name system, more precise and effective for alerts, yes, but also more aseptic than does not transfer that tradition so entrenched in many. We already have the first. A few hours of announcing these new names, the Aemet He has released it before the arrival of a heavy and persistent rainy days in the Eastern Peninsular and Balearic Islands. That is why it will now be known as ‘Dana Alice’ and already warns the risk of flooding from Wednesday to Sunday. In Xataka | The city of Valencia was saved from the Dana for Turia. Now his periphery wants to build his own barrier

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