AEMET

AEMET has just talked about the December long weekend and it is bittersweet news because the “good weather” in December always has a trick

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Yes ‘negative NOA‘, yes ‘storm train‘, but what AEMET says is that, during the bridge (after some persistent rain in the north), what we are going to have is a predominance of sun and higher than normal temperatures. How is it possible? What dark atmospheric dynamics are conspiring to give us good weather on the Constitution Bridge? The rhombus phenomenon. That’s what he called it meteorologist Luismi Pérez on Cadena Ser and the truth is that the explanation is so visual that it can help us understand what is happening. “Rhombus” is a colloquial way of defining an isobaric configuration that diverts the cold to North America and gives stability, little rain and high temperatures to our country. And what does it take for that to happen? Four masses of air are needed to achieve this: a robust anticyclone in Newfoundland and Greenland another anticyclone in the Mediterranean area a storm in the Azores and another in the Scandinavian peninsula In the image above it is still difficult to see, but arranged on the isobar map “they form an approximate figure of a rhombus.” Why it is important. Meteorologically speaking, the rhombus describes a type of atmospheric block very characteristic: a reconfiguration of the polar jet and the trajectory of the storms that takes us away from the coldest scenarios. Yeah the face is the train of stormsthis is the cross: short periods of stability and good temperatures. What we can expect in the coming days. As Pérez explainedthis rhombus “makes” the very cold air accumulated in Greenland slide towards the west; that is, towards North America, instead of falling on Europe. In addition, Spain (being under the influence of the Azores storm and the Mediterranean anticyclone) is assured of westerly and southwesterly winds, which are more temperate and pleasant. What we can expect in the long term. Because in the background there is something more serious: changes in the atmospheric circulation of the Atlantic Ocean. That is to say, the increase in the number of episodes of stability, clear skies and absence of fronts in autumn and winter. Something that can be perceived as “good weather”, but that aggravates the structural drought and complicates water, agricultural and energy planning. Luckily, it looks like it won’t last long. Just enough to let us enjoy the bridge Image | ECMWF In Xataka | The most beautiful, exciting and hopeful thing about November has come out of England and it is a weather forecast

AEMET knows that what is coming is not just a train of storms, it is a ‘master class’ on how winter works in Spain today

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This beginning of December comes with a train of Atlantic storms, several cold fronts in a row, snow, wind and a lot of sudden thermal changes. But it goes much further than all this: what we are going to see is a perfect example of how winter in Spain works today (in the midst of the climate crisis). What is going to happen? The quick summary is that the start of December 2025 in Spain will be marked by a very active Atlantic circulation. And that takes the form of a “squall train” that will cross the Peninsula during the first 10 days of the month. The most immediate will be a cold front that will leave abundant rains in Galicia and the Cantabrian Sea (with local accumulations of up to 50 l/m²), snow above 1000 meters and strong gusts of wind on the coast. But, as I say, it is the first of at least four. The reign of the negative NAO. We said it a few days ago, the European Weather Forecast Center pointed because the first days of the month we were going to be in negative NAO. The ‘NAO’ is the ‘North Atlantic Oscillation‘ is what meteorologists call the relentless fight between the Azores anticyclone and the Icelandic low, the two great atmospheric phenomena that govern the meteorology of the North Atlantic. When the index we use to “measure who is winning” is negative, the Azores anticyclone is weaker than normal and, for this reason, it cannot block deep Atlantic storms. The direct consequence is that they circulate further south than normal: right at our latitude. This is exactly what is happening. For this reason (and as a novelty) “squall train” is not a funny journalistic metaphor: there are four very active fronts heading towards Spain. And it goes without saying that this is good news: we are coming from very dry and irregular autumns and, despite the cushion of dammed water that we havea phenomenon of this type is going to be really good for us. It remains to be seen if we will be able to take advantage of the rainfall that will arrive. Why do I say this is “a perfect example of how it works today (in the middle of the climate crisis) winter”? Because although the pattern of “chained storms” is classic of the Atlantic winter, these dynamics are encountering a warmer basal situation: the atlantic ocean and the Mediterranean Sea is warmer (and therefore have more energy). It’s “business as usual”, but at higher speeds. In this situation, in fact, a scenario is feared for Europe in which there is less rain in summer in the Mediterranean and more episodes of extreme rain in the cold seasons. This feeling that everything is very similar to the same as always, but in a completely different way, is very strange. Image | Tropical TidBits In Xataka | The most beautiful, exciting and hopeful thing about November has come out of England and it is a weather forecast

AEMET has released its prediction for winter and confirms the trend that is no longer an anomaly: a winter “without cold”

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Although we can keep in mind that winter does not begin until next December 21, coinciding with the winter solsticefor meteorology now we have started with the station from today. A season in which we could all expect a great spell of polar cold to be at home with a blanket and watching a series on television. But the AEMET has lowered these forecasts taking into account to what we experienced in previous years. Via a post on X The AEMET has welcomed this new winter 2025-2026, but with bad news behind it: it will be much warmer than usual with a high probability. We are not talking about individual “summer” days, but rather a robust statistical signal that covers the entire quarter (December-January-February). What we used to call an anomaly, the data are beginning to call the norm: winter in Spain is fading. Heat map. AEMET’s seasonal prediction It doesn’t leave much room for doubt. According to probabilistic models, the average temperature will be in the warm zone throughout the country. Specifically, for the AEMET the eastern peninsula and the Balearic Islands have a probability of a much warmer winter that exceeds 70%. In the case of the Canary Islands and the Balearic Islands, this is where the “zero zone” of this warming will be found, with a very pronounced thermal increase with respect to its normal values. In the rest of the peninsula, the probability is around 50%, which continues to be a sign that points to having a winter that is as normal as possible with respect to what we have seen in previous years. The rain. If in terms of temperatures it seems that we are not going to have very good news with a high probability, in terms of precipitation it seems that we must be optimistic. A priori, the models suggest that we will not have an extremely dry winter but nor will it be too wet. And the rainfall seems to be close to the average, although with great variability. Not all months of this winter will rain in the same way, emphasizing especially the second half of winter, that is, the end of January and February, where the models point to the arrival of dynamic phases with fronts and storms. This is something that may fit with studies on the loss of sea ice in the Arctic, which alters atmospheric circulation and may lead to much more “wet or variable” winters in the Iberian Peninsula, breaking the patterns that we saw in our environment. 28 days of “no winter”. To understand why the AEMET is so sure of this forecast, you have to look in the rearview mirror. The most recent reportslike Climate Central, already warned that last winter Spain experienced an average of 28 days with temperatures above the historical average. To do this, experts focus on reducing the days where we have temperatures below zero with a sharp drop in the days where there is frost. Furthermore, cities like Valencia are seeing how urban centers are turning into ovens even in the middle of winter. And it is a serious danger, as the CLIVAR-Spain report warns that this amplification of warming and the alteration of winter variability pose a critical challenge for our ecosystems, which need rest from the winter cold for their biological cycles. Goodbye to the historic cold. What AEMET is telling us with this forecast for 2025-2026 is that the atmosphere in Spain has more and more accumulated energy. Studies by Funcas and analysis by AEMET itself corroborate that the decrease in snow coverage and the increase in warm episodes are not temporary, but in the end they are the reality we face. We are facing a scenario where winters do not disappear, but they do “soften” until they become unrecognizable compared to those of three decades ago. If you have thermal clothing prepared for this year, it is possible that, except for occasional episodes of storms in February, it will stay in the closet. Images | Thomas Holmes Immo Wegmann In Xataka | “Three days of pure cold”: while the world looks at the polar vortex, bad news accumulates for AEMET

Half of Spain is on alert due to snow and yet AEMET has not issued a single red notice: what is happening here?

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“Historical Polar Beast“, “New Philomena“, “the polar storm that threatens Spain“: Much has been written about the intrusion of cold air that is causing drops in temperatures, snowfall and trouble throughout the north of the country. And not always without reason. In fact, the Junta de Castilla y León has declared the alert for snowfall in the provinces of Burgos, León, Palencia and Soria. And yet, AEMET has not issued a red weather warning. What is happening here? QTo start: everything is working normally. And we must not forget that AEMET and Civil Protection do not do the same work. The State Meteorological Agency is limited to issuing weather warnings that are based on physical and objective thresholds. Civil Protection, on the other hand, declares the alert based on the expected impact (on the population and/or infrastructure). In this sense, they are not things that can be linked directly. And what is happening these days is a textbook example. AEMET has not activated red warnings, simply because snowfall exceeding the highest thresholds is not expected. Yes, the snow level had dropped a lot… but in reality, no one expected a lot of snow to fall. This does not mean, as is evident, that it is not an important episode; Only it is not an extreme episode in purely meteorological terms. In social terms, it is different. Because as Víctor Gonzalez explained There are a series of factors that make this relatively small winter storm something to take into account. To begin with, it is the first episode of snowfall at low levels of the season. As with heat waves in summer, the first ‘episodes’ are always more dangerous because they ‘catch’ the population unprepared. Especially when (as is happening now) that episode comes earlier than usual, when winter hasn’t even started yet. In addition, it coincides with very busy days (because we are talking about a very busy weekend). An important lesson: When we talk about meteorology, it doesn’t just matter how much snow falls, how hot it is going to be, or how much water a storm will dump. What really matters is when, where and on whom it falls. As Víctor González said“If this same episode occurred on a Tuesday in February, perhaps the alert would not have been declared.” Image | ECMWF | Alev Takil In Xataka | AEMET is clear about what we can expect from the polar storm that threatens Spain: the question is whether we are prepared

Aemet already has the list of names for the danas that should really worry us

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You have to prepare to keep track of ‘Marta’, ‘Samuel’ or ‘Claudia’. And they are not the protagonists of a new series, but the names that we could hear in the news throughout this fall and winter. All because the aemet has announced That from now on, great impact are going to be their own name, as with the storms. And it has more marketing than we believe behind. The announcement. Done Through its official channels and accompanied by a complete list of names that will be used from now on in collaboration with the meteorological services of Portugal (IPMA), France (Météo-France), Belgium (IRM) and Luxembourg (meteolux). The first Dana to be baptized will be ‘Alice’. But this movement, beyond the anecdote, raises a background question. Did we really need this system to understand that a dangerous storm is coming? Didn’t we have a perfectly settled term and feared by all? Yes, we are thinking about the “Cold drop“ List of names that will receive the DANAS of great impact in Spain. The differences. For years, Aemet meteorologists have fought a pedagogical battle for society to distinguish between Dana and Cold drop. They insisted that ‘Dana’ is the technical term that describes an isolated cold air bag in the high layers of the atmosphere. A relatively common phenomenon that does not always trigger torrential rains and catastrophes on the surface. However, for the general public, the concept remained diffuse. The word “Dana” did not have the evocative power or the warning load that the “cold drop” did have. The cold drop, although meteorologically inaccurate, it was a concept that everyone understood perfectly: It meant apocalyptic skies, torrential rains and floodsespecially in the Mediterranean arch. The problem. The Aemet has seen that using the term Dana for everything created a lot of confusion. On their own website, it points to “the appointment of the DANAS with great impact will help prevent them from being associated univocally with serious or catastrophic impacts.” That is, they seek to create a new category: the “Dana with name”, which would be the equivalent of the old and dreaded cold drop, leaving the term “Dana” (dry) for the general atmospheric phenomenon without serious consequences. Marketing strategy. Baptizing the Dana with names is a brilliant communication strategy without a doubt. Giving a first name to a meteorological phenomenon humanizes it, makes it a concrete and easy to continue in social networks and media. Without a doubt, it is much more effective to capture attention to say “the Dana ‘Benjamin’ is close to the coast” that “a system of low pressures associated with a Dana will cause instability.” And it is something that has already been shown. With the big storms that have received names such as ‘Filomena’ the reality is that they have been recorded in the collective memory and was associated with the impact it would have. Now this same effect wants to move to a phenomenon that aims to be quite common In our day to day. What we lose. The question is if, in the process, we are not losing a part of our popular meteorological culture. The “cold drop” was a term of ours, loaded with history and experience. It was the definitive notice that passed from grandparents to grandchildren. Now, it is replaced by an international and standardized name system, more precise and effective for alerts, yes, but also more aseptic than does not transfer that tradition so entrenched in many. We already have the first. A few hours of announcing these new names, the Aemet He has released it before the arrival of a heavy and persistent rainy days in the Eastern Peninsular and Balearic Islands. That is why it will now be known as ‘Dana Alice’ and already warns the risk of flooding from Wednesday to Sunday. In Xataka | The city of Valencia was saved from the Dana for Turia. Now his periphery wants to build his own barrier

Do you know that hurricane that everyone speaks of? Well Aemet has just pronounced on Gabrielle

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In the last hours, Hurricane Gabrielle has reached category 4 in the middle of the Atlantic. That is, the countdown has begun: during the next few days, the cyclone will move to the east until Friday impacts with the Azores. Just after, the unknowns begin. Of those unknowns is what the weather information has been living in recent days. But now they begin to clear and, in fact, Aemet just said publicly That is on alert. And it is because, although as we said yesterday it is already clear that the Azores will take the worst part, the truth is that the scenarios in which the storm arrives at the peninsula are increasingly probable. Where is Gabrielle right now? Let’s start here. According to the latest notice of the National Hurricane Center in MiamiGabrielle is 2950 kilometers from the Azores. With sustained winds above the 220 km/h, the eye of the hurricane moves about 20 kilometers per hour to the northwest. And then? After passing through the Azores, Gabrielle “will stop being a hurricane.” Will suffer an extroatropical transition. That is to say “its intense wind field ceases to be located, exorbitant, circular, symmetrical and becomes expanding, becoming asymmetric and losing intensity.” That means that the Peninsula will approach the weekend as storm (something relatively common in autumn), but we do not know how, or when, or where exactly that transition will take place. What does all this mean? Well, right now, the most likely scenarios already give a discounted that Gabrielle He will approach “To our region, with high probabilities of suffering an extroatropical transition (transformation on storm) of high intensity.” And he will catch us almost by surprise. Because, although from Monday to Wednesday there will be a fresh atmosphere with showers, from Thursday we will enjoy a warm and stable atmosphere. It will be The summer of San MigueLy will be short (maybe very short). Just after: it is possible that the bad sea, the rains and the strong winds make an appearance in the west peninsular. Image | HNC In Xataka | The largest Hurricane of the Atlantic progresses slowly 16 kilometers per hour. The problem is your address: Spain

Aemet has set out to one of the hottest summers in recent years

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The 2025 meteorological summer will be dismissed abruptly at this end of August. After one of the most intense heat waves rememberedSpain prepares for a radical time change this week. The State Meteorology Agency (Aemet) He has warned of the arrival of a mass of cold air that will cause a collapse of temperatures in a generalized way in the peninsula and rains that will concentrate on the northeast peninsular. Alerts for rains in the northeast. From this same Tuesday, The situation will be complex In the area, the Pyrenees, and northern Catalonia, with yellow alerts already active throughout the day, with accumulated rainfall of 15 liters per square meter. But on Wednesday, August 27, these alerts will be intensified, becoming oranges in the Pyrenees of Lleida, the Arán Valley, the center of Huesca or the Bajo Aragon de Teruel. In these areas, rainfall is expected above 30 liters per square meter and a high probability that they are accompanied by hail. But these alerts will be deactivated on Thursday, where a return to normal is already expected. A two -speed Spain: polar cold and Mediterranean heat. Temperatures will vary considerably on the peninsula. For the AEMET “the temperatures will be normal at this time of August, except between Wednesday and Friday that a remarkable decrease is expected.” Is low temperatures It will be reported in most of the Peninsula, except in the Cantabrian, Mediterranean areas and in both archipelagos. This will result in a reduction in temperatures by one to three degrees in Extremadura, Castilla y León, Galicia, the interior of Asturias, Cantabria, the Basque Country and the Ebro Valley. Greater temperature variation on Thursday. As the prediction made by Aemetduring Thursday is where a variation of maximum temperatures will be registered, concentrating through the peninsular center. Meteorologists point to an end of August without extreme heat. Samuel Biener, from Tiempo.com, points to “between the Azores anticyclone and exerin will channel a mass of freshest air of polar origin that will cause an important almost generalized thermal decrease.” In this way, it confirms that there will be a reduction in temperatures that will favor Galicia and extend to Cantabrian, Pyrenees and Northwest. But what seems clear is that heat waves have been marked so as not to return to our country during the remainder of summer. A beginning of September according to normal. The forecast that Aemet has made As of August 22, it is quite optimistic with the start of September. According to the information they have, “September would begin with temperatures in general within normal values.” The exception would be found in the peninsular northwest, where the environment will register a decrease in temperatures. For the second week of September, temperatures will be superior to normal in the east peninsular, although at the moment in terms of rainfall the AEMET cannot launch an accurate prediction on what will happen. Images | Aemet In Xataka | We have centuries studying the different types of clouds. What tells us the shape and color of these atmospheric phenomena

Aemet has already concluded the heat wave. Now experts look at Hurricane Erin to know if the cold will endure

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After a heat wave long and intenseSpain begins to travel a few days of thermal relief. However, after several warm episodes, it is worth asking whether the stabilization of temperatures will last over time or if on the contrary the heat will return. Days of calm ahead. Everything seems to indicate that we have several days in which temperatures will remain within normality. We will even see several days in which these will be something below the usual for these summer dates, According to the forecasts of the State Meteorology Agency (Aemet). So much so that even the rebound of temperatures that are expected towards the end of this week and beginnings of the next will not lead us to a particularly warm situation. The cold thermal anomalies At some points they could be below the nine degrees in some areas of the peninsular center, according to expert predictions. Gone is therefore the last heat wave, an episode that has not only been intense but also Looking at the western Atlantic. At the beginning of the week we pointed out that experts looked closely at what happened these days in places as far from our territory as the Western Atlantic and the Antilles archipelago. The reason was in the tropical storm Erin, a storm that reached the category of hurricane and whose journey seemed to turn to the north first and northeast later, undertaking a direction that would take her from the tropical waters to middle latitudes. Why interest? The key is on the impact that this storm could have on atmospheric circulation in these latitudes. According to explained a few days ago The physicist, disseminator and researcher at Aemet, German JJ, the emergence of this cyclone into medium latitudes could complicate the average weather prediction in Europe. Erin regroups. Erin seems to follow the established script and is already in the north direction. The storm has restructured in the last hours, so it can be expected that its progress will continue during the next few days. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the United States, the hurricane is off the coast of Florida. If the forecasts are completed, the storm will run in parallel to the east coast of the US during the next few days and between Friday and Saturday will reach the 40th parallel, already standing in our latitude. This, details German In another publicationimplies an important change in both atmospheric circulation and in the Jet Stream On the Atlantic, which will strengthen the cooling effect we are now seeing. “Thanks to this, atmospheric dynamics in our region will give a radical change, seem more like that of autumn,” he says. Uncertainty. We will have to wait to learn more about Erin’s course and its impacts, direct or indirect, about Europe. This hurricane reached category 5, becoming the first significant hurricane in a relatively meek season in Atlantic waters. The good news is that, if we can reach our environment, it will already do so as a subtropical storm or post-tropical cyclone, probably entering the continent to higher latitudes than ours. In Xataka | We have centuries studying the different types of clouds. What tells us the shape and color of these atmospheric phenomena Image | NHC / ECMWF

Three of the hottest days in the history of Spain have something in common, according to Aemet: August 2025

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The heat wave is over and now it’s time to take stock. The heat has broken numerous records, such as the maximum temperature captured at the Bercalona weather station, Fabra (38.9º), or the maximum registered in a month of August at the Jerez de la Frontera airport (45.8º). The heat wave also left other changes in historical records. 3/10. Three of the hottest days in Spain have been given during the newly finished heat wave, according to Data from the State Meteorology Agency (Aemet). Among them stands out on the 17th, with an average temperature of 28.99º, it would have been the hottest day of the heat wave and the fourth hottest day in the period between 1950 and 2025 in peninsular Spain. In this particular “Top 10” of Aemet, they also appear on August 11 and 12, which with average temperatures of 28.75º and 28.85º would be placed, respectively as the seventh and sixth warmer days of the historical series. The “Top 3”. And what about the hottest days of which you have a record? You don’t have to go far back in time to find the three warmest days of this particular series. According to agency data, the three warmest days in peninsular Spain were recorded in the 21st century. In order, these would be on August 23, 2023, with an average temperature of 29.1; on August 10, 2012, with 29.31º; and on August 14, 2021, when an average temperature of 29.58º Celsius was reached. Different data, same photo. Aemet’s list is not the only one that highlights the intensity of the last heat wave with respect to the records we had. The list published by the page Datadictindicates that five of the ninetest days of the last 70 years occurred during this heat wave, highlighting again on the 17th, when the estimated average temperature was 29.86º. As in the Aemet list, they also highlight on the 11th and 12th, although this list also includes on the 15th and 16th among the hottest days since we have observations. The discrepancy between the estimated values in each of the lists can be explained by the different methodology used when calculating the “average temperature”. According to Aemet, the calculation was carried out from the average of the maximum and minimum temperatures values, averages to which geostatistical techniques were applied to estimate an average value for the peninsular territory. Unleashed temperatures. Let’s use the method we use, the data maintain coherence in something: the last heat wave has been very intense. More generally, the 2025 is being a warmer summer than it is usually common. The month of June was marked by a persistent warm anomaly. While the month of July was less intense (we could even see negative temperature anomalies), August has had an extremely warm start. This seems to indicate that, despite the thermal descent that we still have ahead, the heat will consolidate as an indisputable protagonist of this last station. In Xataka | The maps that explain why Castilla y León have become the “zero zone” of forest fires Image | ECMWF

We believed that the heat wave was over. Aemet warns that, in reality, we still have the worst ahead

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The heat wave that affects the peninsula is leaving shocking data. Yesterday, three of the weather stations of the State Meteorology Agency (AEMET) collected maximums above the 45º Celsius, with 55 registering more than 42º. Two records of record. On August 11 and 12 they beat, According to Aemettwo temperature records. With an average temperature that touched the 29th in peninsular Spain, this month has seen on August 11 and 12 more than at least 1950. In fact, they are among the warmer days registered in August: only three times the 29th Celsius barrier has been overcome. On August 12, it was also the hottest day than is going 2025. If they are fulfilled The agency’s forecaststhe first twenty of August will be the warmest in peninsular Spain since there are records, exceeding a few tenths the previous registry (of 2003), and for more than one degree the next highest record, last year. From Seville to Badajoz. Yes Let’s go to the most extreme caseswe can find the 45.2º of the weather stations of Seville, Tablada and El Granado (in Huelva), or the 45.5º collected in Badajoz. Another striking fact were the high minimum temperatures: 29.7º in Osuna (Seville), the highest in peninsular Spain (in Gran Canaria there were thermometers that did not fall from the 30). A number that does not want to leave. The answer to the question of “what is happening” has to do with atmospheric stagnation a “synoptic configuration continues quite stationary”, In Aemet’s words. A dorsal anchored on the peninsula That allows the entry of warm and dry air from Africa, as well as the high degree of insolation propitiated by summer and stable skies, are main responsible for a heat wave that is not only being intense, also long. The latest update of Aemet’s forecasts indicate that this exceptional situation will last at least until Monday 18. The “more likely” scenario is that the entrance of a fresh air mass from the Atlantic serves to relieve the situation, but there are still a few days left for us to know greater certainty when and how the end of this heat wave will be given. What can we expect. Meanwhile, what can we expect? After a kind of brief respite today, Aemet foresees A new increase in temperatures tomorrow Thursday, a more marked ascent in Galicia, where the thermometers can exceed 38º. On Friday this ascent will be extended throughout the north, where orange notices are already planned due to an important risk derived from high temperatures. In Xataka | Every summer fires ravage to Spain. There is a usual guilty that goes unnoticed: old tractors Image | ECMWF

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