“Temperatures between 5 or 10 degrees above normal will continue,” says Rodríguez Marcos of AEMET.

We’ve known this for weeks. AEMET believes that the June-July-August quarter of 2026 will be in the warm tertile throughout Spain and the truth is that it is not a very risky bet. Of the 10 heat waves that AEMET has been counted in June in the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands since 1975half are concentrated in the last decade.

The underlying problem is that, as we are seeing, June has ceased to be a ‘transition’ month to join (statistically and climatically) the summer ‘in a chemically pure state’.

Like ‘June’ is ‘summer’? Climatologically it already was, of course. The climatic summer began on June 1. The difference is what the AEMET tells us: the same definition of heat waves was calibrated taking into account the highest temperatures of July and August. That it is increasingly common for June to begin to exceed these temperatures is a clear indication of what we are talking about.

Above all, because the wave of June 2025 (from June 18 to July 4) It lasted 17 days and affected 40 provinces: the third longest and the third most extensive of the series. It’s not that this isn’t “the heat from before”, it’s that the situation is out of control.

What does this translate into? As explained Francisco Javier Rodríguez Marcos of the AEMET, what the models say is that the temperatures this quarter will be among the 30 highest on record. This will especially affect the northern area, the east of the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands.

The line to overcome is clear: the 46 ºC that El Granado (Huelva) reached on June 29 of last year. It is, so far, the highest temperature ever recorded in Spain in the month of June.

But in 2026 isn’t that ‘weird’? It is true that we are coming from the wettest winter in 47 years, but it is also true that April was the warmest April in the historical series. That is, no one knows what is ‘normal’ in 2026 and, in this sense, no one can say that the scenario that is drawn is strange.

The important thing is to prepare. In some ways, early waves have a potentially greater health impact because the body is not yet acclimated to the heat at the beginning of the season. In this sense, it is best to advance the preparation of the homes (insulation, cooling, night ventilation) and start preparing our daily lives.

Image | Tropical TidBits

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