AEMET

We have been hearing talk for days about the “storm of the century”, this is what AEMET says about it (and about the trend of fattening meteorological headlines)

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It’s curious. A “storm of the century” concept has been around for days and, in the last hoursa date has even been set: February 25 would be the moment in which the storm would reach the country’s coasts. And I say that all this is curious because, in short, it is inaccurate, a ‘journalistic hook’: a lie after all. This 25th changes time, yes. But what the models describe is more like an Atlantic front (with rain in Galicia and some instability in the Canary Islands), than a truly exceptional episode. But let’s take a look because there are more things to take into account. What do the models say? That is the big question: AEMET and the rest of the specialized media draw a very different scenario. Galicia stands out with relevant accumulations (we are talking about 20–40 l/m² in the area from A Coruña to Pontevedra), but little else: in the rest of the areas where it rains, the quantities are much more discreet. In most places, almost testimonials. On the other hand, it is also possible that it will rain in the Canary Islands, but (unlike the peninsula) it will be a DANA in Morocco. And then? So, nothing. We won’t have big announcements; neither by winds, nor by rain, nor by coastal problems. AEMET is worriedYeah; but due to the persistent rainfall that may accumulate in the northwest. For the rest, if there is any news on the table, it is that a phenomenon that has been somewhat missing is going to return: the haze. There will be no “storm of the century” and that, of course, is excellent news. After all, we come from a winter that has been nothing more than a huge chain of storms. This has led to a whole process of social desensitization that is forcing popular meteorological information to raise the threshold until it borders on (or settles into) sensationalism. And it’s not the best time to do it: as AEMET itself points outit is possible that we are approaching a new era of precipitation in Spain. Climate change is increasing precipitation extremes globally. It doesn’t seem like a good idea to play ‘Peter and the Wolf’ just when things are starting to change. Image | Torsten Dederichs In Xataka | We already know exactly how much climate change was to blame for DANA in Valencia (and the figures are devastating)

AEMET prepares for “the highest hydrometeorological impacts in the world”

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As said Kevin Killeen“February is the worst month of the year, but it is an honest month.” And February 2026 is no exception in its honesty: the models gave historic rainfall throughout the Atlantic coast and the south of the peninsula and the rainfall is already here. The jet stream is going to pass over us so “constant and uniform” throughout the week. But it is not just the “concatenation of storms generated” by this, it is that “they are going to be fed with high moisture content” that comes directly from the Gulf of Mexico. What would have been excellent news three years ago has become a huge problem: this succession of storms arrives at a time when the soil cannot absorb even one more drop. A truly exceptional accumulation. To land the data, the latest models accumulated dan for this week of more than 100-150mm and up to 300 in areas of Galicia, Extremadura and Andalusia. In the case of Andalusia, in fact, the situation will be very complicated due to the extension of the Guadalquivir valley and the composition of its soil. More than 200mm are expected at the head of the river and a homogeneous average of 100mm in the basin. That, added to the fact that “The soil is clay and its use is agricultural.“, the filtration is very scarce. This has turned the flooding of the rivers and streams in the Guadalquivir basin and adjacent areas (such as the Guadalete or the Mediterranean basins of Granada) into a ticking bomb. “The highest hydrometeorological impacts in the world”. As Martín León explainedis not a figure of speech, it is an enormous risk: the highest impacts in the world are expected. In fact, as the hours pass, the predictions they seem to get worse and floods, overflows and landslides seem inevitable. The first symptoms of flooding, in fact, have already been detected in Andalusia via satellite. How normal is this? To emphasize that we are not facing a normal situation, it is enough to take a look at the ECMWF EFIthe index that measures how extreme the atmospheric phenomena are: the entire south-southwest of the peninsula is in red, the highest level. Rain on wet. But, as I say, that is not the main problem. The main problem is that, after these days of heavy rain, the soil is extremely saturatedthe reservoirs are being forced to drain and the system’s retention capacity is at minimum levels. In mountain areas, water it’s starting to flow directly from the ground. To this we can add that the Pyrenees and the rest of the northern mountains they have a historic snow pack. We are, as all models show, in the middle of a perfect storm. This means that the Hydrographic Confederations will have a lot of work and the problems have only just begun. Special attention will have to be paid to rivers, streams and areas at risk of land displacement. Complicated hours are approaching and any precaution will be insufficient. Image | WXCharts In Xataka | Spain is preparing for a “festival” of storms in February: with more rain than normal and hardly any cold

AEMET has set an expiration date on Borrasca Harry. But what’s coming from Greenland is about to begin

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On January 17 and 18, AEMET issued a series of special warnings due to a Mediterranean storm that has been causing problems in the Balearic Sea for days. But, in those notices, there was something else: a problem. And no, it’s not just that we are going to the most unstable week of what we have had in winter. And then? In those noticesAEMET describes a blocking pattern that was elongating a trough and favoring a retrograde DANA. That was Harry, a high-impact storm forming in the Mediterranean (and already is leaving snow near the coast). According to AEMET estimatesthe accumulations can be on the order of 200 liters in 48 hours in the Girona area and more than 20 centimeters of new snow in southeastern Iberian. But Harry ends tomorrow and that’s where the problems begin. The jet returns. Because, in parallel, the anticyclonic blockade between Greenland and the Scandinavian peninsula will interrupt the zonal flow and force the polar jet to lower latitude. In fact, it will descend so much that it will focus directly on Spain, guiding fronts and cold masses from the north. Or, rather, we are talking about cold advection with synoptic trajectories. These models still lack consistency, of course: but the models and outputs are converging in this scenario. What should we expect? Right now, the point of greatest risk It is the Mediterranean coast. Although Harry already has an expiration date, it is a storm that can be very intense locally and can cause problems in short basins (with rapid floods). Not to mention the difficulties at the coastal level and the gusts of wind. Then, if we are a little lucky, it will be reactivated.Atlantic storm machine and a train of storms will begin to enter from the west. If we are unlucky, the cold will return. But, well, at the gates of February it is still within what is expected. Image | ECMWF In Xataka | After the cold comes something much more problematic: the explosive cyclogenesis that AEMET predicts for the Mediterranean

AEMET warns that, after the cold, something much more problematic comes

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The Mediterranean asks to speak and the polar jet seems ready to give it all the prominence: if everything goes as planned, after a very cold weekend, What is happening? That the polar jet is contorting again and, this time, it is going to turn so far south that a good part of Spain is going to be in the cold zone. We will change the warm and humid air masses of the Gulf for cold masses that, since they are not arctic, will also have a lot of humidity. For practical purposes, that does not stop the “train of storms” that was affecting us; but its temperature. Therefore, the “storms, fronts, wind and rough seas“will be accompanied, once again, by a drop in temperatures: snow is, in fact, expected in the north of the Sahara. That and a strong storm in the middle of the Mediterranean. But let’s start with the cold. During the weekend (accompanied by that contortion of the jet) orA mass of cold air will invade Spain: Not only will the minimum temperatures drop and frost will return to a large part of the country, but the maximum temperatures will suddenly collapse. The great Mediterranean storm. Although on Saturday the 17th there will be movement in the Gulf of Valencia and the Balearic Sea, the strong will begin on Monday the 19th. That day, the undulation of the polar jet has a good chance of setting up a very powerful cyclogenesis. A cyclogenesis is an intensification of a low and, the Mediterranean knows a lot about that: the arrival of cold air at altitude over a fairly warm sea only needs a good shot of humidity to transform into a very intense storm. These days we will have all the elements on the table. And what can we expect? The models are beginning to converge in a full-fledged winter storm in the Balearic Islands and the Mediterranean coast. Although, as Martín León explains“it could leave abundant rain and snow in medium-high areas in the eastern part of the Peninsula”; The truth is that the position and intensity of the storm is still unclear. And those uncertainties will make the difference between a cold calm or a real winter storm. Image | ECMWF In Xataka | The soils of Spain are already saturated with water. And now a new train of storms threatens something worse

AEMET says ‘goodbye’ to the polar cold during the remainder of January

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After the cold and the passing of the Goretti stormSpain changes screen. And he does it for the rest of the month and who knows if for the rest of the year. The polar cold is over, although we are not very clear what is coming next. What is going to happen? As we explained a few days agothey spoke of a deep trough that was coming in the direction of the Peninsula. This south-southwest advection is bringing “tropical maritime air”: that is, air that is warmer and more humid than normal. For this reason, the morning frost has receded this morning throughout the country and, therefore, there are thermal anomalies approaching 8ºC above average in areas of the interior and the northeastern half. Bottom line, the cold is melting and a time is coming”more pleasant“. Although it’s not ‘spring’ all that glitters. At least, when it comes to risks. Let’s think about it for a moment: Galicia can receive up to 150 liters per square meter these days and, indeed, it is not something disproportionate. But the soil is already saturated with water and that amount can very easily produce floods, landslides or local flooding. To that, furthermore, you have to add the thaw. What has changed? Last week we said that the specific consequences of this atmospheric movement were still not clear; but the uncertainties are already dissipating: as Sergio Escama explainedwhat the models indicate is that the polar jet that had been very wavy in recent days is straightening and that, right now, facilitates the entry of air masses from the Atlantic (and limits strong thermal inversions that collapse night temperatures). For this reason, the map of Spain is little by little recovering its color. What does all this translate into? What will it do? less cold than usual for this time of year and, above all, less than what we have spent in recent weeks. However, we should not overreact: we are not talking about spring. There is still a lot of winter left. After all, although this year it may be surprising, this type of “Atlantic mode” is a classic of the peninsular winter. AND it’s not bad news: These settings are synonymous with water. For the rest: the classics return in 2026, which is still unknown. Image | Tropical Tidbits n Xataka | While the snow devours half of Europe, there is a place where it is 27ºC and on the beach in the middle of January: Greece

After a weekend of floods, deaths and evacuations, AEMET confirms that calm is coming for the New Year

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Málaga, Granada, Murcia and the south of the Valencian Community have passed a complicated weekend with floods, deaths and displaced people. In fact, in some areas of the southeast the worst has not happened yet. And people are tired: «”I feel like selling everything and leaving town: the rains are increasingly torrential”, said a neighbor from Cartama (Málaga). However, we will forget again. We will start the year cold, yes. But also with a strong anticyclone, with fog and frost. There will be no rain except somewhere in the south/east and the Balearic Islands; something that with the night movements of New Year’s Eve, is good news. However, the models start to draw that with the New Year there can also be a change in pattern. A change of pattern? Starting Thursday, as explained by Duncan Wingenthe models contemplate “the rise of the Atlantic ridge towards Iceland and Greenland”: it is what experts call the “Atlantic ridge.” It is a tongue of high pressure at altitude that bulges over the Atlantic and extends towards high latitudes. It is a wall that diverts the current from the west. What it represents for Spain. It’s hard to saythe truth. The effect on the peninsula depends on where the dorsal ends up placed. Or, close the Atlantic corridor and we have a few days of stable, dry and cold weather on the surface. Or, it favors the entry of cold from the north with thermal drops, a winter sensation and snow. Or, finally, the storm corridor opens with the consequent intrusion of Atlantic fronts from the Ocean. That is, rain and a slightly milder climate. What should we expect? It is a great unknown: enormous. And taking into account that it is the key phenomenon to understand what is going to happen in the coming weeks in southern Europe, it is important. Therefore, we have to continue monitoring them closely. Euro-Atlantic regimes modulate temperatures, energy demands and meteorological alerts. The Atlantic Crest is a piece of that puzzle and there are many things that depend on it. It is still surprising because, well, for now we are only going to see a deep, wintery cry. Image | PolarWx In Xataka | La Niña is going to be meteorologically “less intense” than we expected. And that actually hides a problem.

AEMET confirms a collapse and snow at 1,000 meters to start Christmas

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If you thought you had too much of a coat this week, now you’re going to have to think twice. After a few marked days due to unusually mild temperatures for mid-Decemberthe weather is going to change radically with the arrival of the peak days of Christmas. A thermal collapse. So far, the month of December has seen some really warm days where you could easily be out in the sun without a jacket. This is something that has been seen especially in parts of the Mediterranean, Almería and even in the Cantabrian Sea with thermometers that have reached to touch 20 degrees. However, it already has an expiration date. Starting on December 21, coinciding with the official start of astronomical winter, a notable thermal drop is expected. According to AEMET itself This change will not be gradual, but will feel like a drastic collapse in thermometers by this polar jet that arrives from the north that will leave minimum temperatures in the negative and that in general will cause a thermal drop of 3-5ºC. Precipitation map for Sunday, December 21 | Source: AEMET Rain and snow. Before the great drop in temperatures, we will see abundant rains in our territory due to the entry of a new front from the Atlantic. This will mean that this weekend we will see abundant rain in a good part of the peninsula, with special emphasis on northern Spain where significant storms are expected for next Sunday. The Galician coasts are where we will have to keep a close eye, as these precipitations will be accompanied by very strong gusts of wind, which will lead to the appearance of waves that can exceed seven meters in height. Appearance of snow. With the drop in temperature, rain can end up turning into snow in part of the peninsula. In this case, the snow level is expected to drop to 1,000-1,200 meters in the northern third. The most affected areas They will be the communities of Galicia, Asturias, Cantabria, La Rioja, Castilla y León, the Community of Madrid and Castilla – La Mancha. This is bad news, except for lovers of a Christmas under a layer of white. And just this weekend a new operation begins, coinciding with the start of the Christmas holidays. This is something that can cause significant traffic delays in the northern third of the country. Christmas week. We already have Christmas Eve almost here, and there are many eyes on to the weather forecast. For now, the progress that the AEMET has given us after the front on the 21st is that we will have a cold environment with significant night frosts across the peninsula and widespread, although not extreme, rainfall, which will be present especially in the south of the peninsula. But this is something that will not affect the Canary Islands, which will maintain stable weather and normal conditions for the time in which we find ourselves. An extreme change. There is a climate prediction coming from Europe that sees a much more extreme and unusual scenario that may or may not occur. Specifically, the ECMWF points out that there may be heavy snowfall in the province of Seville, Huelva and the south of Badajos on Christmas Eve. This would be something historic, since snow is a strange event to see in Seville, where there has not been a solid snowfall since 1954. That is why this European prediction is really crazy, which logically can change as the days go by, leaving the chances of snow in Seville a disappointment, despite the fact that the low temperatures are going to continue. Images | Osman Ran In Xataka | Lightning seems like a normal thing: in reality we have been trying to understand it for years and we have achieved it in a laboratory

The meteorological winter has already begun for the AEMET. And now we have another problem with the DGT beacons

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The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has not waited for the solstice to start winter. A season that, meteorologically speaking, extends from December 1 to February 28. Three months of cold await us (although less and less)rain, snow and various inclemencies. This year, it is inevitable to ask ourselves if the cold may affect the V16 beacons of the DGT. The answer is a resounding yes. Resistance up to -10ºC. All approved V16 beacons must have with a series of requirements. And one of them talks precisely about resistance. There are two things to keep in mind here: the IP rating and what temperature range they can operate in. New connected beacons must have at least IP54 certification. That is, resistance to dust and splashes of water. But they must also offer adequate operation within a wide range of temperatures. Specifically, between -10ºC and 50ºC. It is enough even If we leave the car in full sun in summerbut in winter it gets a little more complicated. BUT. Theoretically, Spain is not a very cold country. But although it is not at the level of the Nordic countries, in certain places or times the thermometer can fall below -10ºC. If we are going skiing, if we are driving on a mountain road on a particularly cold day or if we are considering a getaway to one of the “refrigerators from Spain”things get complicated. For example, Molina de Aragón (Guadalajara) is considered the coldest town in Spain and has the milestone of having reached -28.2 degrees. In these types of places and situations, the resistance to -10ºC of the beacons is insufficient, so their connectivity may stop working, thus losing virtual visibility, or even fail to turn on. Another problem: snow. Beyond the problems caused by extreme temperatures, there is another phenomenon that in the winter season can interfere with the beacons. Much has been said about the visibility problems of these devices in broad daylight, in fog or on very tight curves, but snow can also become another obstacle. Beacons should be placed on the highest part of the vehicle where possible, usually the roof. If the snow settles, it can cover it and thus kill the physical visibility it provides us. The alternative. The V16 beacons aim to improve safety on the roads, warning other drivers of the obstacle posed by a car stopped on them. In the event that the beacon does not work due to problems with temperatures or snow, the option left is to contact the emergency services via mobile phone. The V16 beacons, which will be mandatory from January 1, 2026, are not without controversy. From the scams around them until accusations from groups of the Civil Guardthe DGT He had to admit his mistakes and has already explained that will be flexible with fines. Cover image | Generated with Gemini In Xataka | FACUA believes that a lot of V16 beacons “approved by the DGT” are not legal. And there’s a way to sum it up: fraud. In Xataka | Living 1,300 kilometers from the North Pole: a Catalan tells of his experience in the northernmost city in the world

AEMET has just talked about the December long weekend and it is bittersweet news because the “good weather” in December always has a trick

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Yes ‘negative NOA‘, yes ‘storm train‘, but what AEMET says is that, during the bridge (after some persistent rain in the north), what we are going to have is a predominance of sun and higher than normal temperatures. How is it possible? What dark atmospheric dynamics are conspiring to give us good weather on the Constitution Bridge? The rhombus phenomenon. That’s what he called it meteorologist Luismi Pérez on Cadena Ser and the truth is that the explanation is so visual that it can help us understand what is happening. “Rhombus” is a colloquial way of defining an isobaric configuration that diverts the cold to North America and gives stability, little rain and high temperatures to our country. And what does it take for that to happen? Four masses of air are needed to achieve this: a robust anticyclone in Newfoundland and Greenland another anticyclone in the Mediterranean area a storm in the Azores and another in the Scandinavian peninsula In the image above it is still difficult to see, but arranged on the isobar map “they form an approximate figure of a rhombus.” Why it is important. Meteorologically speaking, the rhombus describes a type of atmospheric block very characteristic: a reconfiguration of the polar jet and the trajectory of the storms that takes us away from the coldest scenarios. Yeah the face is the train of stormsthis is the cross: short periods of stability and good temperatures. What we can expect in the coming days. As Pérez explainedthis rhombus “makes” the very cold air accumulated in Greenland slide towards the west; that is, towards North America, instead of falling on Europe. In addition, Spain (being under the influence of the Azores storm and the Mediterranean anticyclone) is assured of westerly and southwesterly winds, which are more temperate and pleasant. What we can expect in the long term. Because in the background there is something more serious: changes in the atmospheric circulation of the Atlantic Ocean. That is to say, the increase in the number of episodes of stability, clear skies and absence of fronts in autumn and winter. Something that can be perceived as “good weather”, but that aggravates the structural drought and complicates water, agricultural and energy planning. Luckily, it looks like it won’t last long. Just enough to let us enjoy the bridge Image | ECMWF In Xataka | The most beautiful, exciting and hopeful thing about November has come out of England and it is a weather forecast

AEMET knows that what is coming is not just a train of storms, it is a ‘master class’ on how winter works in Spain today

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This beginning of December comes with a train of Atlantic storms, several cold fronts in a row, snow, wind and a lot of sudden thermal changes. But it goes much further than all this: what we are going to see is a perfect example of how winter in Spain works today (in the midst of the climate crisis). What is going to happen? The quick summary is that the start of December 2025 in Spain will be marked by a very active Atlantic circulation. And that takes the form of a “squall train” that will cross the Peninsula during the first 10 days of the month. The most immediate will be a cold front that will leave abundant rains in Galicia and the Cantabrian Sea (with local accumulations of up to 50 l/m²), snow above 1000 meters and strong gusts of wind on the coast. But, as I say, it is the first of at least four. The reign of the negative NAO. We said it a few days ago, the European Weather Forecast Center pointed because the first days of the month we were going to be in negative NAO. The ‘NAO’ is the ‘North Atlantic Oscillation‘ is what meteorologists call the relentless fight between the Azores anticyclone and the Icelandic low, the two great atmospheric phenomena that govern the meteorology of the North Atlantic. When the index we use to “measure who is winning” is negative, the Azores anticyclone is weaker than normal and, for this reason, it cannot block deep Atlantic storms. The direct consequence is that they circulate further south than normal: right at our latitude. This is exactly what is happening. For this reason (and as a novelty) “squall train” is not a funny journalistic metaphor: there are four very active fronts heading towards Spain. And it goes without saying that this is good news: we are coming from very dry and irregular autumns and, despite the cushion of dammed water that we havea phenomenon of this type is going to be really good for us. It remains to be seen if we will be able to take advantage of the rainfall that will arrive. Why do I say this is “a perfect example of how it works today (in the middle of the climate crisis) winter”? Because although the pattern of “chained storms” is classic of the Atlantic winter, these dynamics are encountering a warmer basal situation: the atlantic ocean and the Mediterranean Sea is warmer (and therefore have more energy). It’s “business as usual”, but at higher speeds. In this situation, in fact, a scenario is feared for Europe in which there is less rain in summer in the Mediterranean and more episodes of extreme rain in the cold seasons. This feeling that everything is very similar to the same as always, but in a completely different way, is very strange. Image | Tropical TidBits In Xataka | The most beautiful, exciting and hopeful thing about November has come out of England and it is a weather forecast

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