AEMET

Aemet indicates that we will touch the 43rd to orange notices for storms

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In Sunday afternoon, locations such as Morón de la Frontera (Sevilla) or Montoro (Córdoba) saw their thermometers to place On the edge of the 43rd Celsius. Although high temperatures are not going to disappear so quickly, the phenomenon that experts are now worried is A week of change. Meteorologists foresee A new change Meteorological this week, one that will not only bring us a drop in temperatures: the models warn of the arrival of storms that could be intense. As if that were not enough, hail could also make an appearance. What is happening? Since the end of last month, the meteorological sway was marked by the succession of several dorsal and a trough. The former brought us atmospheric stability and high temperatures, the last one brought us rainfall and a brief relief of heat. However, the fresco is not going to bring a new trough, Experts warn: It will be an isolated depression at high levels, a Dana. Although it is expected that as of today the storms begin to demonstrate in the north, the effects of this Dana will be especially notorious in Galicia from the day of Tuesday. From heat to storms. According to The forecasts From the State Meteorology Agency (Aemet), the storms will have the probability of being strong and arriving accompanied by both hail and “very strong” gusts in some areas of the plateau, Eastern Betic System and in the Iberian South. The agency has activated various notices For storms in these areas, oranges in the case of the province of Teruel for “very strong hail probability and very strong wind gusts.” On Wednesday, “strong” storms are also expected in the northern half, with probable showers in western Galicia, Cantabrian environment, Alto Ebro, the Iberian and the Pyrenees. Aemet storm notices will be activated in most of the Peninsular Northern area, with orange notices in areas of the Basque Country and Catalonia. Not far from 40º. Despite the decrease in temperatures, storms will coexist with heat. So much so that weather notices for rains and storms will coexist these days with notices due to extreme temperatures above 37º. Aemet has also activated An orange alert on Tuesday on the Ebro banks in Zaragoza due to maximum temperatures of up to 39º. In Xataka | The time of truth of the Spanish reservoirs: how are they going to endure the heat after rains that has left them overflowing Image | ECMWF

Aemet emits the first orange warnings by extreme temperatures

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A few days ago, meteorologists They foresee that the worst of the warm episode that affects the Iberian Peninsula would come from Wednesday. Well, we are on Thursday and the forecasts become facts: the “Iberian oven” has activated and with it preventive measures. Orange warnings. Heat has led to the State Meteorology Agency to issue A series of yellow and orange notices by maximum temperatures. Today’s notices will affect seven autonomous communities, tomorrow Friday to nine. The Sevillian countryside will be the most affected area, where notices will be oranges due to maximum temperatures of 40º Celsius. Oven ignition. The obvious question is what is happening for the sudden arrival of more typical temperatures of summer than at the end of May. The answer can be found in the phenomenon known as “Iberian oven” As details Marta Almarcha in eltiempo.esthe phenomenon begins with the appearance of a dorsal in middle and high layers, that is, in the prolongation of a high -pressure center. This implies atmospheric stability and air -descendant movements that compress and heat the air mass over our own heads. More than an anticyclone. Anticyclonic and stable time also contributes to a High insolation which in turn also implies heat. As if this were not enough, Aemet warned a few days ago of the irruption of a Dana located between the Canary Islands and the Gulf of Cádiz that since yesterday pushes warm, dry and with dust in suspension to the peninsular south. Heat, very heat. The result, the one that is well palpating: heat. According to them Aemet forecaststoday maximum “high temperatures are expected for the time in most of the Peninsula”, with areas of the South exceeding the 34º-36º and with the possibility of exceeding 38º-40º in the Guadalquivir and Guadiana Extremadura. The story will be similar tomorrow Friday, with high maxims, possibility of exceeding 34º-36º degrees in the southern Atlantic aspect and the 38º-40º in the Guadalquivir, but without ruling out that the thermometers also reach this temperature at points of the Guadiana and depressions of the northeast. On Saturday a similar situation will be repeated as far as the maxims are concerned. Tropical nights. In addition to the maximum, the minimum temperatures also concern many. The fact that night temperatures They are not going to get off the 20th In some areas the dream of many will make it difficult. This is the phenomenon known as “tropical nights.” Spring activation. It is not the first time that we see this “Iberian oven” be activated in the middle of spring. In 2023 without going any further We were talking of its possible activation at the end of April. In Xataka | The reservoirs are almost 22% above the average of the last decade. There is an “but” important before celebrating Image | ECMWF

The problem of heat arrival is not just the 40º planned by Aemet: also the “tropical nights”

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Heat has come and with him a more annoying phenomenon than the high daytime temperatures: the so -called “tropical nights.” Bad news for those who have problems reconciling with heat. Tropical nights. The warm episode that this week is manifested on a good part of Spain threatens to bring maximum thermometers above 35º in various areas, even above 40º in areas such as the Guadalquivir Valley. However, beyond the maximum, There is another fact to pay attention: minimum temperatures. We talk about “Tropical nights“When the minimum night temperatures do not fall from the 20th Celsius. That will be precisely what happens in areas of the southern peninsula and in the Canary Islands throughout the week, according to the forecasts of the State Meteorology Agency (Aemet). According to Aemet In an informative note Dedicated to the warm episode, the minimum temperatures will rise throughout the week, more slowly and intense than the maximum, yes. The minimums above 20º will affect areas of the southwest quadrant and the Mediterranean coast, also extending to the Ebro Valley during Saturday. On the edge of the “equatorial night.” In fact, Aemet’s forecasts They anticipate minimums that could remain around 24th towards the end of the week in areas of Malaga or Cádiz. This implies that some areas are on the edge of the call “Equatorial Night”, Term that refers to the nights on which the minimums do not fall from the 25th. A anticyclone, and a Dana? But what is happening so that spring has ended so abruptly? Much of the fault has an anticyclone inside located on the waters of the Atlantic, around the Azores. The influence of high pressures will leave us a great atmospheric stability, explains Aemet, with “practically clear skies and high insolation.” But there is even more: from Wednesday, the appearance of a Dana between the Canary Islands and the Gulf From Cádiz I could drag with it a mass of warm, dry and with suspension dust, first to the south and then towards the peninsular center. The result of this would be the additional increase in the temperatures that we will see throughout the second half of the week. Notices for extreme temperatures. Thus, the agency has issued several notices for extreme temperatures for tomorrow Wednesday and for Thursday by maximum temperatures between 37º and 39º. Is there an end in view? The big question now is when this will end. And the truth is that it is still early to venture since uncertainty predominates towards the end of the week, says Aemet. According to Explain the agencyit is “likely that as of Saturday 31 the Dana will dissipate” and that instability in the peninsular northern increases, in turn giving clouds to reduce the failure of these days. In any case, we will have to wait to see if these predictions are confirmed. In Xataka | The reservoirs are almost 22% above the average of the last decade. There is an “but” important before celebrating Image | ECMWF

We have been wondering for two months when the heat arrives in Spain. Aemet finally has an answer: already

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2025 has been a year anomally wetat least for the Iberian Peninsula. The month of April the rainfall was 11% higher To the usual in peninsular Spain, and in recent weeks we have also seen many days marked by rainfall. But perhaps what will mark the end of spring are temperatures. Summer arrives. Meteorologists glimpse on the horizon an increase in temperatures from next week. A change of trend that, according to Trend predictions In the medium term of the State Meteorology Agency (Aemet) could leave us an end of May and a first half of June and warm than usual. The 36º appear. Meteorologists expect that atmospheric stability will be taken over the skies throughout the weekend. This will be translated, they explain from Eltiempo.esin an increase in temperatures. According to these forecasts, temperatures are expected above the 27th Celsius in capitals such as Valladolid or Zaragoza, while cities such as Madrid and Badajoz would exceed 30º. However, maximum temperatures will be seen in the southwest, where the thermometers could be between 35º and 36º. Three warm and dry weeks ahead. If we add to this the Aemet predictionswe can intuit that we are in the advanced transition between spring and summer. The agency hopes that the remaining week of May will be marked by higher temperatures and lower rainfall than these dates would be expected. The thermal anomaly is expected to be between the degree and the three degrees above the average in much of the country, with the interior of the southern half reaching an anomaly between three and five degrees. The situation will be similar during the first half of the month of June, with almost all of the Peninsula watching thermal anomalies above the three degrees on average. Regarding rainfall, Aemet predictions for next week draw a scenario where dry anomaly is the standard, with up to 10 mm less than usual in practically the entire Iberian Peninsula and with dry anomalies of up to 30 mm in localized areas of the northern half. The first half of June will be similar, although uncertainty gains ground. What is happening? The main culprit of this is a phenomenon closely associated with summer: the Azores anticyclone. According to Explain the meteorologist Mario Picazothe trough of cold air that during this Week will continue to lead An unstable time and storms, especially on the Mediterranean coast, will be retiring at the same time that the anticyclone appears in the west. In Xataka | Japanese scientists have taken the lightning rod to the next level: with a drone that hunting lightning Image | ECMWF

Aemet is clear that the end of May will not be “normal.” And the question is whether summer will arrive at some point

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We were going to suffer the first summer bars and, although the calima has punctured expectations a bitthe truth is that heat and dryness They have been the great protagonists of the meteorology of most of the country. And I say most because in the northwest the storms are already being noticed: the next few hours, a new Dana will cross the peninsula leaving showers, storms and heavy rains throughout the country. It’s just the beginning. Things are going to change and we have been listening to it weeks; But the truth is that, for now, The situation remains the same. A meteorological combo. Because yes, the first thing will be a Dana that will sweep us from the Peninsular North and will leave Tuesday night towards France; But, then (between Thursday and Friday) a trough will affect the Mediterranean area. And, as I say, Everything seems to point to that it takes and daca It is not the end of spring During the next few days, days full of strong storms with more stable days will be happening. What is clear is that, we want or not, It will not be the normal situation For the last half of May. The best example will be the weekend. Because once the trough, stability will take over the country. The question asked everyone (meteorologists included) is whether it is the definitive one. Luckily, medium/long -term trends are here. And, for the first time in a long time, they begin to Draw a “return to normal”. European models point out that, although most of the Peninsula will receive average rainfall (and the north, a little more than normal), the southeast of the country must prepare to forget what has happened during this spring: the driest climate is here again. In fact, that is the second half of May. If we look at the first half of June, that climate “slightly dry than normal” will be present throughout the southern half, the Mediterranean coast, the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands. The northwest quadrant will have a rainfall regime “within normal.” Something similar We will see with temperatures: During these two weeks, the fresco will endure in some zoans of the interior, but progressively all of Spain will slide towards a warmer situation than normal. Not too much, it is true: but enough to break the very long streak of strange patterns that began in March this year. Will summer start? It is a great question. The problem is that we do not know. Image | ECMWF | Ryoji Iwata In Xataka | The problem for Aemet is not to get a retrograde Dana. The problem is that we have been really strange for months

Where we had heat waves before, Aemet only expects rain and cold

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Although there are many areas that have not noticed, the first weekend has been starring large storms in much of the country. And, according to weather models, The thing is not going to stay there. Throughout this week, a new anticyclonic block in the British islands will be consolidated. It is not clear if this is going to open, again, the doors of the Atlantic (some models draw a ‘bridge’ between the Azores and Ireland), but right now the probability that vaguada or cold strokes will begin to get off the cold or storms is very high. So much so that Monday we already have rains. Catalonia, the north of the Valencian Community, the Balearic Islands and the interior of the plateau will have rains, hailstorms and strong winds throughout Monday. During Tuesday the storms will be primarily paid in the northwest third of the country. On Wednesday, According to Samuel Bienerthe storms will be reinforced in “The East Castilla-La Mancha, Sierras de Granada, Jaén and Almería, interior of the region of Murcia, Teruel and the Valencian Community.” But, as I say, that’s just the appetizer. Because if the models get right We will have a Dana (or a cold storm, it is not yet clear) near the peninsula at the end of the week. Be that as it may, this assures us a very unstable first Miad: unstable skies, water and Reasonable temperatures – Well below normal ,. A rare spring. If we lift the view and look at a couple more weeks, the forecasts are quite clear: everything seems to indicate that a long storm period awaits us. As they explain in CazatorentasIt is a direct consequence of the blockade. That draws a spring very different from the previous ones. Different? Not so much because of the temperatures that, with nuances, are within normal in most of the country. The nuances are that, on the coasts, they will be “slightly warmer than normal” and that, at the southwest end, they will be “slightly colder than normal.” This, already, gives us a good track of the expected rains. Except the Canary Islands and the Northwest Third, The models wait that rainfall in May is more intense than normal. Everything seems to indicate that summer can more and the tap will end up closing, but all this planets interesting things. The most important is what will happen now. Change of trend or simply an extremely weird year? Image | ECMWF In Xataka | May is putting a March face: Aemet’s great question is if 2025 will definitely end the drought

Aemet has just published its prognosis

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The “May bridge” looks at us from the end of the week and, while Media Spain compulsively update the AEMET applicationthe models begin to clear the uncertainties of recent days. Although, unfortunately, this is not to say too much. All eyes looking at a single storm. One that “moves slowly west of the peninsula reinforced by cold air in the highest layers of the atmosphere.” And that is the problem: that is moving exasperatingly slowbut at any time you can paste an acceleration. In fact, even if it does not, it is very likely to leave rains at least in the west of the peninsula. The question at this point of the week is where it will rain exactly. What we don’t know. Part of the problem is that everything seems to indicate that most of these rainfall They can be stormy. The bad news is that this makes its prediction even more complex; The good is that we are not talking about continuous rains, but of something (rather) of a timely nature. What we do know. Luckily, Amet He has just taken his weekly prediction. We know that Borrasca will approach the Peninsula on Wednesday and the first rains make an appearance in Galicia and Portugal. For Friday, we hope that different rainfall bands begin to admit for the northwest. With them the rays, lightning, wind and hail will come. And if I struck her follow your planned behavioron Saturday the rains will be more widespread (selling from the northern end of the peninsula). So will it rain or not? As I say, the answer is complicated: As Martín León explainsBorrasca will bring “unstable time both for the west (we are) and sunny and stable time the more the east (we are).” It rains or does not rain. What we can expect are spring temperatures throughout the week. All this will bring South wind and the thermometers could shoot up to 27 degrees in places like Bilbao. In the south, the 30 can give them for discount. So we expect a very typical of the spring: pleasant temperatures and much uncertainty. Let’s enjoy it, just summer. Image | ECMWF In Xataka | “One of the most extreme phenomena in history”: meteorologists are dismayed before the heat wave of Africa and Asia

While Laurence hits Spain, Aemet fears another four weeks of rain

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Just a few hours ago, the high impact storm Laurence was east of the Azores. Not anymore. And on his way to the east Three fronts have already been defined that are impacting the Iberian Peninsula (or are about to do so). After the little parenthesis of the weekend, the rain is back. And it seems that he plans to stay. Three fronts? The first, the warm (a hottest mass than what we have now on the country), is entering the Gulf of Cádiz and will leave heavy rains in the Guadalquivir valley. The second will be cold and will water much more water also entering the Southwest. And finally, an occlusive one will arrive (that is, a compressed mass between two others) that will be the coup of grace and the real problem when high accumulated and heavy rains. With the aggravating thing that, after hours and hours of rain, all drain systems will begin to be collapsed. Is it dangerous? In some areas it can become, yes. For example, As Álvaro Oliver explainsthe rains that will reach the central system “will clearly exceed 50 mm and even 100 mm at many points.” If we add to that the thaw that will occur, the situation can be complicated. And, beyond that, the rains They have no heavy to send. This is what Aemet tells. And, as we say, not only Laurence is going to leave “abundant rains in large areas of our country” and will breathe “temperate air” that will boost the thaw, is that “Wednesday will be a transition day between two storms: Thursday comes another with more rain “yet. Other? How long will this last? This question has two answers: the short is that we have no idea. We already know how variable the time in spring is. The long one, however, has a lot of crumb to analyze. Because If we look at ECMWF’s weekly modelsthe European weather model, we will see that the next four weeks appear with positive anomalies in rainfall. It is true that the one that has that most accentuated trend is this that we now start, but (always according to the model) the rainfall above normal can remain much longer than expected. Image | ECMWF | Sami Ullah In Xataka | If the question is when the rain is going to end, Aemet has bad news. Especially for Andalusia

If the question is when the rain is going to end, Aemet has bad news. Especially for Andalusia

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It has been raining in Andalusia since February 28. That is to say, As they said from Storm Málagathat is “15 consecutive days registering precipitation at some point.” But the thing does not end there, because it looks like this streak “could be extended for at least 8 more days.” What is happening in Andalusia? What is happening in Spain this March? The great Atlantic game. In recent days, Aemet Special fact emphasis In what we have been repeating for days: that a “anticyclone, displaced to northern Europe and another to the south of the Azores, (created) a wide corridor that allows the entrance of Atlantic storms from west to this.” On the one hand, the anticyclone to the north facilitates the circulation of these storms to low latitudes; On the other, the South Anticyclone facilitates the transport of humid and warm air from the Caribbean. Actually, it is nothing mysterious. In fact, it is A phenomenon relatively common that usually gives us great joys. What is happening now is that the pieces have conceded perfectly: the storms are powerful, they are well directed and the hall is lasting a more than considerable time. So much time that many farmers have already activated panic protocols. As we said a few days ago, “too much water suddenly creates problems.” The best example is Huelva: Strawberry crops can begin to rot (or infect with fungi) in full campaign. Yes, they are small problems if we compare them with the years of drought that we have been dragging, but They are problems after all. Problems that point out that, as usual, We do not have the necessary infrastructure nor well thought out plans. And what can we expect in the next few days? On paper and although it will continue raining in some areas of the country, the time time will give us a small truce. However, As Marta Almarcha points outthe latest updates suggest that new storms will arrive. The same Monday, without going any further, a new one will enter the southwest. And so again and again until at least next Friday (which is when). What we know from Monday. I would not want to close the subject without commenting what we know about the Borrasca on Monday; of Laurencethe twelfth storm of high impact of the season. Above all, because (in the Atlantic aspect) the rains can become very intense. In points of Huelva, Cádiz and the central system more than 100 l/m² can be collected in 24 hours. Again. We also have to keep in mind that all this water must be added a problem: the thaw. The subsidiary fronts of Konrad have left (or leave) enough snow in low levels. The rain will help melt that snow and that will be a “more problem” In the river flow. Image | ECMWF | Sami Ullah In Xataka | Aemet special notices are just the beginning: everything points to an extremely rainy March in Spain

The good news is that Aemet already knows when the Jana Borrasca will leave. The bad is that 10 more days of rain await us

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As of today, Monday, the BORRASCA JANA It will lose strength. But that does not mean that Aemet Go withdraw your notices by rains in half a country. And it is that the high -impact formation will continue with us generating instability, cloudy skies and generalized rainfall. Although, in reality, this seems only the beginning. Rain, rain and more rain. Although the eastern facade of the peninsula continues with His particular viacrucis (Especially in Alicante), the screws seem to have changed in the rest of the country: the largest accumulated will be in the south, both in the Atlantic and Eastern Andalusia aspect. Also in the central system. On the contrary, where the rains are less likely it is in the Cantabrian and the Northeast. In the Canary Islands there will be cloudy skies and scattered showers. But this will have an end … right? Of course he will have it, the problem is that we do not know when it will be. Jana is going to weaken And that, perhaps, we give us a little respite. But, as Aemet points out, “the rain will continue during the week of March 10 to 16”. After the borrasca jana“new fronts associated with Atlantic storms will sweep our country, with rainfall in large areas.” Again, the most abundant seems to be in the environment of the central and west system of Andalusia. How is this possible? A few days ago we counted that It was being established A huge blocking anticyclone between Greenland and Scandinavia. That was very good news because I was going to force the Atlantic storms to turn south. To this has been added something else: that the temperature of the surface water of the ocean is above the average and, thanks to the joint work between the blocking anticyclone and that of the Azores, an atmospheric river has been articulated that insuffes us with moisture from the Caribbean. The result is 10 days of generalized rains. That is to say, An unusually wet March. Is something of Holy Week know? This year, Holy Week falls between April 13 and 21. That is, there is a lot of time left. However, Aemet has published A climatological analysis. Unlike the predictions, what this type of analysis is investigated is the “standard time” for those days taking into account the historic. For example, According to the agency“In most of the southern peninsular half the average temperatures vary between 13 and 17 ºC” while “in the northern half we find lower values, with temperatures near the 9 ° C on the plateau and close to the 0 ºC in the summits.” Aemet The problem is that, as we can see in the superior graph, these “spring dates are characterized by their great climatic variability.” In recent years, temperatures have been high and, a priori, it is what we should expect. But there we have the year 2012 to show us that the situation can turn around when we least expect them. Image | ECMWF In Xataka | Aemet special notices are just the beginning: everything points to an extremely rainy March in Spain

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