crisis

Europe already has its recommendations for the latest oil crisis

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15 years later, the idea of ​​limiting the speed to 110 km/h is floating in the air again. It comes from the European Commission, an organization that has indicated what measures it recommends to countries to save fuel with a letter. It includes 10 measures that touch on all types of issues in our economic and social life. These are those aimed at mobility. What has happened? That the European Commission, through Dan Jorgensen, Commissioner for Energy, has sent a letter to the 27 with recommendations to save oil in the face of the crisis that we are already experiencing and the possibility of it extending over time, according to media such as The World either The Country. The decalogue is based on the recommendations made by the International Energy Agency, but Jorgensen has already pointed out in the press conference after the announcement that there is no general recipe for all member countries of the European Union, so it is up to each one what to apply. At 110 km/h. Perhaps one of the measures that draws the most attention to Spaniards is the 10 km/h reduction in speed. It is a measure that The Government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero already applied it in 2011. That barely lasted a few months (from March 7 to July 1) and the reason was the crisis derived from the Arab springs with which the price of crude oil rose. In those days, the Brent Barrel had also exceeded $100 per unit. When the project was presented, the expected savings for one year were 1.4 billion euros and gasoline and diesel consumption was 15 and 11% lower. The measure was lifted by encrypting savings of 450 million euros During the months that the plan was active and the fuel savings were 11.4% in the case of gasoline and 7.7% in the case of diesel. Given the enormous variety of models with combustion engines, it is impossible to establish a specific saving figure by reducing speed by 10 km/h. This is certain to happen since fuel consumption increases exponentially at higher speeds if you drive in the highest possible gear. The DGT points out Driving at 110 km/h leads to savings of almost 9% in a gasoline car and around 6.5% if we talk about a diesel car. Today yes, tomorrow no. Another of the measures announced by the European Commission that governments can apply is to limit entry to cities based on the license plate number. The idea is to use the car on alternate days to get around, a measure that would boost the use of public transport and would be accompanied by the demand from Europe that teleworking be prioritized to avoid commuting. This solution has generally been applied to improve pollution rates. They are common in countries more polluted than ours. In Mexico, for example, they apply the Not Circulating Today in which the license plate number is taken into account to allow or disallow the circulation of cars. Also in countries like China it has been applied. In our country, the most famous case was that of Madrid, which with The Government of Manuela Carmena applied this protocol in 2016. The measures, in fact, are still considered to reduce pollution in the city but they have not been applied again. Flights, the fewer the better. The Energy Commissioner has also referred to flights. According to Jorgensen, we should “avoid air travel when alternatives exist” and it has been clear with who the main ones are: “reducing business flights can quickly relieve pressure on the aviation fuel market,” they state in The World. It must be taken into account that Europe has been working for a long time in reducing short-term flights, especially those lasting less than two hours, and replacing them with train travel. In fact, the commitment to connect European capitals It is a determined commitment by the Commission. Lisbon-Madrid is a good example of this. It is expected to be long. In addition to the European recommendations, it must be taken into account that Europe is releasing its oil reserves with the aim of containing fuel prices. Our country alone has released 11.5 million barrels of oil from its energy reserves. However, the crisis is expected to be long. The accounts suggest that the world is already facing a daily deficit of 8 million barrels. Oil at $200 a barrel begins to appear on the horizon. Media like Financial Times They warn that we are facing a crisis similar to that of the 70s. And Repsol already warns– Releasing oil reserves is a temporary patch. Photo | Tim D. and Rafael Garcin In Xataka | There is a silent war between “premium” and low-cost gas stations: and the most unexpected side is losing it

With the RAM market in crisis, an unexpected winner appears: China

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The saying goes that, in a troubled river, fishermen gain. In the case of the RAM crisisto a troubled market, manufacturers profit. All devices need NAND chips. They are the ones that go into the RAM memory or the storage that is used from the mobile phone to the car, the router and the SD memories and Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron are the ones that control the majority of the production. The data centers need a huge amount of memorywhich has caused everything other than producing for them to be missing out on a large portion of the pie, which is why the three companies have thrown themselves into it. And, since their most important factories cannot do more, they have made the decision to inject a lot of money into China, which is not their favorite scenario, but what gives immediate relief. And all the extra RAM they make… it’s not going to be for us. Exploited. A few weeks ago we said that Jensen Huang, boss of NVIDIA, had met with senior officials from the Asian technology industry, including executives from TSMC and Samsung. He told the first ones to get their act together because NVIDIA was going to need a lot of wafers this year. In the seconds, more of the same, but with HBM4 memory new generation. Shortly after, it was Lisa Su, AMD’s boss, who visited Samsung’s offices in South Korea to reach a deal for HBM4 memory of South Koreans for AMD’s new platform focused on artificial intelligence. Everything moves to the tune of AI training and inference. We are talking about Samsung, but SK Hynix is ​​also developing new generation memory and the objective is the same: to produce everything possible because, although as users we cannot buy RAM or SSD and Valve can’t make the Steam Machinethey are doing great. Wons galore. The problem is that, although the numbers come out, the production lines can’t take it anymore. There are very few companies to create RAM that supplies a brutal demand, and that means that they either expand… or they don’t arrive. And that is precisely what they are doing, but looking at the industrial fabric that can serve as support: what they have been manufacturing in China. In SCMP we can read that Samsung is going to intensify its investment in its Xi’an plant. Specifically, 67.5% compared to the previous year. This will bring the investment to 465.4 billion won -about 264 million euros- in the Chinese plant. This is Samsung’s only plant abroad, and also one of the company’s most important because it is estimated to produce 40% of South Koreans’ NAND memory. The million-dollar investment comes after a few years of hiatus, but they are not the only ones. SK Hynix is ​​also going to inject 581.1 billion won -331 million euros- into its Dalian plant. It is 52% more than in the previous period and the largest disbursement since they acquired the factory in 2022. Immediate relief. The information They point out that it is not so much to produce more, but to satisfy the demand for cutting-edge memories. Recently, Samsung began mass manufacturing the HBM4 memory and SK Hynix the fastest DDR5 memory, and this strategy is focused on the two plants manufacturing that advanced memory instead of the rest of the factories having to adapt to the cutting-edge memory creation processes in order to continue dedicating themselves to other types of NAND chips. It also responds to a more pragmatic vision. Setting up a memory factory is not cheap, but above all, it is not fast. It takes about four or five years to build, polish the clean rooms and optimize the operational lines. It is much faster to adapt existing factories to obtain a much faster response. The reason is that they need wafers, and they need them now. From SK warned that the global shortage of wafers exceeds 20% and, probably, the situation will continue until 2030. Not very favorable weather. The curious thing is that this increase in investments occurs when the situation between China and the United States continues to be very turbulent. Although they have been relaxing, the United States imposed export controls on advanced chip manufacturing equipment destined for China. As much as Samsung is moving money and advanced machines to Samsung, it is in China and that means they must obey Washington’s order. There is licenses and annual permits and, both Samsung and SK Hynix, have a deadline to be able to send tools to their facilities, which are the ones they are taking advantage of because it is estimated that China represents 40% of Samsung’s NAND production and between 40% and 45% of SK Hynix’s. In fact, the company has another plant in Wuxi from which 30% of its NAND chips come out. China, from chill. Whether there is an upsurge in export orders or not remains to be seen. What is on the table at this moment is that China, “without doing anything” (and this with many quotes) is emerging as a very important player in this playing field. It is not only that Samsung and SK Hynix, the two most powerful in the sector, have greatly increased investment in their territory, but that their own RAM companies can see in this scenario the boost they needed to place themselves in the global conversation. One of the largest manufacturers in the country is CXMT and not only have they been polishing their manufacturing process in recent months to create 8,000 MHz DDR5 memories, but they have scaled their production capacity to reach a global market share of between 11% and 13%. Together with the manufacturer YMTC, they are emerging as an opportunity for brands like Lenovo, Dell or Asus, which need RAM to continue selling computers, have available without drastically increasing the price of their equipment. But hey, as we have said more than once in recent weeks, all the extra RAM they manufacture is … Read more

the mathematics of the crisis no longer add up

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We have been in the Third Gulf War for a month and what everyone feared has happened: the WTI barrel has broken the $100 barrier. It is normal for panic to spread. Experts get tired of repeating that, if we add inflation, in previous crises things looked worse. Okay, they’re right. But the drama right now isn’t what’s ticking on the quote screen. The problem is that there is no raw physicality. The ships do not arrive, the inventories are emptied and, no matter how much we stretch the numbers, the mathematics of oil has been blown up. A chasm of 8 million. The reality of the current oil market is summarized in a subtraction that continues to produce negative balances. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to the immediate loss of 20 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil and refined products. So far, the market has managed to absorb this blow, but the accounts are clear and terrifying: after exhausting the first defense shields, the world faces a net deficit of approximately 8 million barrels per day. To put it in perspective, that figure exceeds the combined consumption of Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Spain. The mirage of temporary patches. If the world has lost a fifth of its oil and gas supply, why haven’t we seen a total collapse from day one? The answer lies in a series of emergency “patches” that, although effective, have an expiration date. According to Bloombergthe market has been protected by several layers of cushioning. The first has been the diversion of routes: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been quickly redirected part of its exports through pipelines that bypass Hormuz to exit through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman. The second has been the record release of 400 million of barrels of the strategic reserves of the member countries of the International Energy Agency. Furthermore, the United States temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil that was stored in ships on the high seas, injecting more crude oil into the market. The efforts are finite. As energy analyst Javier Blas explainsthese joint measures have managed to absorb 60% of the loss of supply (about 12 million barrels per day). But the reserves are empty. As Paola Rodríguez-Masiu, chief analyst at Rystad Energy, warned: “The system has gone from being cushioned to being fragile.” The black hole is not going to stop, because the escalation does not let up. An Iranian drone recently attacked to the Kuwaiti supertanker Al-Salmi, fully loaded, in the same anchorage area of ​​the port of Dubai, showing that no vessel is safe. Besides, as reported exclusively The Wall Street JournalPresident Donald Trump has told his advisers that he is willing to end the US military campaign without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The administration assesses that forcing the sea lane to open would extend the military mission beyond its planned time frame of four to six weeks. We enter “demand destruction.” For Washington, the strait is a bigger problem for Europe and Asia than for the United States. With no new supplies in sight and reserves running out, the market has only one way out, and it is the most painful of all: demand destruction. If there is no oil for everyone, someone has to stop consuming it. The impact will be brutally uneven. How to analyze Financial Timesdeveloping economies are the first to fall. Unlike advanced economies, which rely more on the service sector, the developing world depends on manufacturing that is highly energy intensive. When prices rise, rich countries simply pay more and hoard available cargoes on the spot market, leaving poorer nations in the dark. Rationing has already begun. On the Asian continent, the lack of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Middle East is forcing machinery to stop. In fact, the blockade has already exploded the myth of LNG as a “bridge fuel”, forcing Asia to burn coal in desperation and resurrect nuclear energy to avoid a large-scale blackout. Pakistan has closed schools to save energy, the Philippines has experimented with shorter work weeks, and across the region, fertilizer, steel and ceramics factories are shutting down their kilns. But the energy shock will not stay in that part of the world, but it is traveling towards the West. Europe faces an imminent shortage of diesel – the fuel that powers the global economy – in the coming weeks. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until the second quarter of the year, oil could skyrocket to $200 per barreltriggering a stagflation shock (high inflation with economic stagnation) not seen since the 1970s. The final verdict. A month into the crisis, the consensus in the energy industry is terrifying: the world has not yet understood the gravity of what is coming. Government tools to cushion the blow have been exhausted. As Mike Sommers confessedCEO of the American Petroleum Institute: “The playbook is pretty empty right now.” The crude oil does not flow and the mathematics is exact. There is a shortage of 8 million barrels a day in the world. As Jeff Currie crudely summarizedformer director of Goldman Sachs and current strategist of the Carlyle Group: “The main message is that the energy transition is going to be imposed on us in a very painful way and that it is going to happen very quickly.” That is to say, the leap towards a world without oil will not come in a planned and orderly manner, but rather through blackouts, inflation and the forced closure of industries. There are no longer valid patches; The global market is about to crash into a wall of physical scarcity. Image | Unsplash and Unsplash Xataka | That there are dozens of A-10s heading to Iran suggests something: the US has rescued its most “brute” plane for an impossible mission

the European recipe to save the wine crisis

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Touring La Rioja in autumn is to enter an impressive sea of ​​color in the form of small yellow, orange and red trees. However, this characteristic bucolic landscape will change in the coming years following Europe’s plan: uproot vineyards. Paradoxically, from the same place from which they have been receiving funds for decades to promote the expansion of the sector. The EU Wine package. It is Europe’s roadmap to manage the crisis that the sector is going through and was agreed in December 2025. How? Going from expansion to contraction of supply administratively. Thus, it favors the destruction of productive vineyards definitively and voluntarily with incentives. In addition, the plantation system is made more flexible, extending deadlines and exempting from fines those who decide not to use their plantation authorizations. On a commercial level, Brussels is committed to modernization and added value over volume, consolidating alternatives such as non-alcoholic wines and digital labeling with QR codes. Why it is important. To begin with, due to the economic magnitude of the sector in the EU and what these definitive goodbyes imply: it supports 2.9 million jobs and contributes more than 130,000 million euros to the community GDP, according to the report “Economic, social and environmental importance of the wine sector in the EU” by the European Wine Business Committee prepared by PwC. Rioja has recently opened the aid application deadline and offers between 2,300-2,600 euros per hectare. But also because the EU plan involves applying the same measures for different realities. By not distinguishing between regions with large surpluses (Bordeaux) and areas with more balanced markets (such as Rioja or Duero), there is a risk of destroying agricultural capital of incalculable value. The drama is not that about “bad wine”, but that the market can no longer absorb even wines with Designation of Origin. Context. For decadesthe Common Agricultural Policy subsidized vineyards by protecting minimum prices, which distanced the farmer from a market reality in which supply exceeded demand. This approach generated large structural surpluses: since the 80s There is the term “wine lake” to refer to that overproduction derived from central planning that ignored the change in consumer habits. We drink less and less wine and The new generations are not so interested. Nevertheless, Spain more or less holds the type although it is not immune to changing habits: people drink less frequently and more selectively and the alcohol-free options. Europe tried some patchesbut the wine package is the current and most drastic response to the problem that the agrarian policy itself created. Evolution of global wine consumption. Source: International Organization of Wine and Vine La Rioja, ground zero. La Rioja has already made a move opening the aid period for the green harvesta first step that this year seeks to identify those who are willing, in the near future, to say goodbye definitively to their vines. What is “Green Harvest”? Destroy the grapes before they ripen. There is a key nuance: 15 extra points are awarded to those who commit to uprooting their vines forever in the future. The impact of the measure. The consequences of this plan are measured in terms of feasibility and territory: On an economic level, while the green harvest is paid between 2,300 and 2,600 euros per hectare, the definitive grubbing is estimated between 4,000 and 6,000 euros/hectare (in France). In any case, the basis of the aid seeks to reach the professional whose income depends exclusively on the countryside, trying to avoid the collapse of the rural economy (for example, in Rioja). Loss of assets. The uprooting destroys irreversible agricultural capital. In areas where there is no alternative or the sector’s roots are deep, such as La Rioja (honoring the slogan: the land with a wine name), it can be a catalyst for the abandonment of the territory and a change in its landscape. Towards a luxury wine. Or a wine without. The sector is moving towards a model of less and more, a shift towards adding value to the product. In short, the wine that remains on the market is scarcer and can defend higher prices. Likewise, its survival depends on accepting that wine is no longer a mass consumption product, but rather a value-added good adapted to new trends. In Xataka | For the first time in history the possibility of a Mediterranean without wine is beginning to appear on the horizon In Xataka | Green squares in the middle of the desert: Namibia’s “miracle” to fill Europe’s supermarkets with grapes Cover | Shaury

The daily menu has been in an existential crisis for some time. Now Mercadona threatens to take it ahead

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“This is more practical and faster. You eat for 6 euros and I don’t spend 45 minutes. I haven’t eaten off the menu since summer.” The phrase It is from David, 35 years old, technical director of a gym in Madrid. The World He interviewed him recently while having lunch at a Mercadona in the capital. His comment may seem like a simple anecdote, but it summarizes a phenomenon that in the coming years threatens to transform the healthcare sector. retailhospitality and even our eating habits: the struggle between the ‘menus of the day’ of bars and supermarket dishes. For now the figures are clear. Why are you going to the supermarket? A few years ago (not that many) that question would sound like a truism. You go to the supermarket to buy fruit, meat, preserves, milk… whatever you need to fill the pantry. At most you leave there with toiletries or perhaps home decorations, if we’re talking about stores. hypermarket type. However, more and more people go to the supermarket with another purpose: to eat. Literally. Go to a Mercadona, Carrefour or Alcampo (to name just three chains with a presence in Spain) and buy ready-to-eat dishes. Some stores even offer tables, chairs and microwaves. “Merchants” they call them. If you look splendid you can even buy a cup of freshly ground coffee. And do they work? Yes. A few days ago a reporter from The World visited a Mercadona in the center of Madrid, and found that, in addition to people shopping, there was a dining room full of customers eating dishes prepared in the supermarket itself. Three caregivers were having lunch together. At another table a woman was eating a hamburger while looking at her cell phone. Tables. Unknown. Dishes. Exactly the same as in a bar. And it is not something that happens only in Madrid. Not even in Mercadona. In another neighborhood, a retiree waits in line at a Carrefour to buy a rice and hake salad in green sauce. It is the menu of the day from the store, although his idea is actually to take it home. What does the data say? That the above are more than simple scenes of customs. It is proof that something is changing in the sector. retaila change that connects with our eating habits and threatens to hit traditional hospitality completely. According to data from the consulting firm Circana, the distribution sector already accounts for almost the fourth part (23%) of spending on food outside the home. And it is not the only indicator that points in that direction. Another recent NIQ report estimates that the prepared food sector in supermarkets, a broad category that includes everything from refrigerated dishes to other ready-to-eat dishes, recorded year-on-year growth in 2025. 11%well above the 5.8% at which the food distribution as a whole grows. In net terms, this translates into a turnover of billions of euros. In general, Asefapre, the association of manufacturers of prepared dishes, estimates that in 2025 per capita consumption amounted to 18 kg per person, 5% more than in 2024. Its most popular products are refrigerated pizzas, frozen potatoes and pasta-based dishes, so it does not exactly coincide with the foods offered in sections such as ‘Ready to eat’ from Mercadona, but it still gives a valuable clue about consumer trends in Spain. Which chains stand out? In Spain, brands with higher weight In distribution by value quota they are Mercadona, Carrefour and Lidl. The ‘photo’ is not very different when we talk about spending on food. At least that is what the data from Worldpanel by Numerator (Kantar) suggests, which recently disclosed a report which shows that the Valencian chain accounts for a value share in food and beverage consumption of 19.7%. Carrefour reaches 6% and Lidl 5.1%. The study leaves another interesting reading: with its share of almost 20%, Mercadona far exceeds the sum of bars, cafes and terraces (with a 11.2% share of total value) and independent restaurants, which remain at 8.6%. That Roig’s chain occupies such a prominent place is no coincidence. Beyond the gap that has been made in the sector retail thanks to the white labelthe group has been betting on its line for years ‘Ready to eat’in which it offers already cooked dishes that can often be enjoyed without having to leave the store. Today the section is implemented in 1,469 stores distributed throughout Spain and Portugal. Only throughout 2025 did the model expand to 210 new premises. What about the menu of the day? As Víctor, the young man from Madrid with whom we started this report, implies, this new offer of ready-to-eat dishes (many of them based on “traditional recipes”) represents direct competition for bars that offer daily menus. That’s interesting in itself. However, there is another reason why it is worth paying attention to this struggle between ‘merchants’ and bars: catch the traditional hospitality ‘menu’ in the middle of the crisis. Its format is largely based on affordability, but the escalation of costs in recent years (and which may yet be yet to come) makes it turn out every time more difficult keep them at attractive prices. At least if hoteliers want to maintain their margins. Have daily menus become more expensive? Yes. The data from the employers’ association show that every day in Spain they continue to serve millions of menusbut that does not mean that they are getting rid of price escalation. Between 2016 and 2024 They became more expensive on average by 19.5% (they went from 11.7 to 14 euros), but even with that increase the increase accumulated by the general CPI is not equal. A quick Google search arrives to find recent news that warns that in the last decade this increase in prices it’s already over 21%complicating the possibility of finding menus by less than 15 euros. What does that mean? That things get complicated for hoteliers, forced to maintain a profitability margin that guarantees their businesses and compete … Read more

The biggest oil crisis is not making them blink for a second in the stock market

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We have been immersed in what can now be cataloged like the Third Gulf War. Since the United States and Israel offensive against Iran began at the end of February, the world has faced the greatest disruption of energy supply of its history. We are talking about a crisis that has paralyzed 20% of the world’s crude oil, sequestering about 20 million barrels a day They cannot cross the Strait of Hormuz. Missile falls, drones setting fire to infrastructure and thousands of deaths in the region. The impasse. Any basic economics textbook would dictate that financial markets should be in complete panic. However, the opposite occurs. It is enough for the White House to hint at a rapprochement or a vague ceasefire for the stock market to skyrocket, ignoring the physical fundamentals of a war in full swing. Wall Street lives in a parallel reality: the biggest oil crisis does not make them blink for a second. A virtual collapse in the face of a real war. This same week, the markets experienced 48 hours of unprecedented volatility. As detailed oil priceoil prices fell sharply in the Asian session on Wednesday, falling more than 5%. Brent crude oil, the reference in Europe, pierced downwards the psychological barrier of $100, while the US WTI fell to $87.51. The reason for this relief? According to the agency Reutersthe United States would have sent a 15-point peace proposal to Iran through intermediaries in Pakistan. US President Donald Trump boasted to the media that “productive” negotiations were moving toward a resolution. The screens of the traders were automatically dyed green: the European STOXX 600 index rose 1.2% and London’s FTSE 100 rose 1.1%. As Amelie Derambure explainedfrom the manager Amundi, the market simply launched itself to buy the idea of ​​a relief rally (a surge of relief) at the possibility of a temporary ceasefire. The bombs keep falling. However, there is no ceasefire; This should be clear. How to collect ReutersEbrahim Zolfaqari, spokesman for Iran’s joint military command, publicly addressed Trump on state television with these words: “Has the level of your internal struggle reached the stage of negotiating with yourself? We will never make a deal with you.” At the same time, military reality contradicts stock market optimism. The Pentagon prepares the deployment of elements of the 82nd Airborne Division to the region, a drone attack just hit a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport, and Israel is deeply skeptical of any concessions Washington might make to Tehran in the shadows. Investors “bewitched” by the algorithm. To understand this disconnection you have to delve into the psychology of the market. An analysis published by FortunePaul Donovan, chief economist of UBSclaims that Wall Street is “spellbound” by the good news. “Markets do not react to information, they generally react to social media posts and headlines, even if they are fake news or contradictory,” says Donovan. Investors suffer from a cocktail of loss aversion and confirmation bias. They desperately want the war to end, so they embrace any story that confirms that desire and ignore negative news. Added to this, the “TACO” phenomenon (Trump Always Chickens Outor “Trump always cows”), a belief rooted in the New York trading floor that the tenant of the White House will end up backing down from the economic pain of a prolonged conflict to protect financial stability. Narrative as a weapon of war. Added to this is what energy expert Javier Blas defines in his column Bloomberg as jawboning (verbal intervention). The White House is winning the narrative battle in the markets without moving a single physical barrel. Trump’s constant messages in Social Truth promising a quick resolution—and even lifting sanctions on countries like Russia to flood the market—have managed to stop the panic. Blas sums it up perfectly: “Instead of being a sign of weakness, TACO is playing in Trump’s favor. No one knows for sure when or if he will try to end the war, which has been enough to prevent the traders skyrocket the price of oil.” The desperation to cling to any positive headline is such that it generates episodes of extreme volatility and information chaos. He Financial Times reported in his coverage how crude oil suffered wild fluctuations (Brent fell 11% to rebound shortly after) after a tweet by the US Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, stating that the Navy was already escorting oil tankers through Hormuz. The message was deleted minutes later and denied by the White House itself, but the effect on the algorithms had already occurred. The bath of physical reality. While Wall Street plays a game of guessing the next tweets from the Oval Office, the physical reality of oil is stubborn. A report from Bloomberg puts his finger on the sore: The physical market continues to deal with shortages, and the war has demonstrated the absolute control that Iran exercises over the Strait of Hormuz. Although Tehran informed the International Maritime Organization that “non-hostile” ships can transit, the route remains effectively closed and reports circulate about the presence of dozens of naval mines Iranians in the area. The mathematics of disaster, detailed by Reutersthey are chilling. After 25 days of conflict, the world has stopped receiving 500 million barrels (the equivalent of five full days of global supply). The logistical desperation is such that Saudi Arabia has boosted its exports from the port of Yanbu, on the Red Sea, to avoid Hormuz. To compound the crisis, Russia has suspended cargoes at its Baltic ports following a vicious Ukrainian drone attack, adding more uncertainty to the global market. Larry Fink, CEO of the management company BlackRocksummed it up bluntly in statements to the BBC: “If Iran continues to be a threat to Hormuz and oil settles between $100 and $150 per barrel, we will have a global recession.” Collateral damage. The narrative chaos has even reached gold, which has lost their protection status. According to Financial Timesthe price of the precious metal has plummeted 16% since the start of … Read more

Many airlines are canceling flights due to the fuel crisis

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The conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran hits the air sector squarely. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a colossal energy crisis that the airlines have not seen coming, which has resulted in thousands of flights canceledrising rates and an uncertainty that, for the moment, has no expiration date. Start. On February 28, the United States and Israel launched coordinated attacks against Iran, triggering the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a sea lane through which about 20% of the world’s oil trade transits. According to Kevin Bookco-founder of the analytics firm Clearview Energy Partners, when analysts study what can go wrong in global oil markets, this is “the worst thing that can happen at any single point of failure,” he told NPR. Iran did not achieve this with a naval blockade, but with cheap drones. A few attacks in the vicinity of the strait were enough for insurers and shipping companies to decide that it was too risky to cross it. The result: The price of Brent exceeded $100 per barrel on March 8 for the first time in four years, reaching a high of $126. The impact in commercial aviation. The closure of airspace over the Middle East has caused complete chaos in global aviation. According to CNBC, more than 25,000 flights over the Middle East have been canceled since the attacks began, and the price of aviation fuel skyrocketed 58% in just days, reaching more than 170 euros per barrel. Who is canceling and how much. There is a flood of airlines that have canceled flights around the world. Among the main ones are: The Americans: United (5% of capacity); Delta, which already accounts losses of more than 400 million dollars for fuel; American and Southwest, which are also exposed without price coverage. “The price of fuel has more than doubled in the last three weeks. If prices remained at this level, it would mean an additional expenditure of $11 billion a year on fuel alone,” counted Scott Kirby, CEO of United. The Europeans:SAS, canceling about 1,000 flights in April; the entire Lufthansa Group (Lufthansa, Austrian, Swiss, Brussels Airlines), KLM, Finnair, ITA Airways, Wizz Air and easyJet, whose CEO publicly warned that the situation in Europe could become seriously complicated starting in mid-May. “Although we try to absorb cost increases as much as possible, it is a shock that directly hits the sector,” counted SAS CEO Anko van der Werff. Asia-Pacific: Air New Zealand, about 1,100 flights until May (affecting about 44,000 passengers); Cathay Pacific, which have applied supplements of fuel to all its routes; Thai Airways, which already plans to raise rates between 10-15%; AirAsia; Qantas, with price increases and suspending departures on specific routes, and Vietnam Airlines. Where it hurts the most. The crisis does not hit everyone the same. Southeast Asia is especially exposed due to its dependence on supplies from the Gulf. According to Aerotime, China and Thailand have restricted exports of fuel, and the possibility of further calendar disruptions and other potential problems looms over the entire Asia-Pacific region. On the other hand, the situation in Sri Lanka is particularly extreme. And the country not only faces rising prices, but also a real shortage of foreign currency to pay for it, to the point of having declared Wednesdays holidays to reduce fuel consumption throughout the country. What’s coming A recent assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) concludes that Iran could maintain the closure of the strait for between one and six months. kirby warned in its memo that United is preparing for a scenario in which oil reaches $175 per barrel and does not drop below $100 until the end of 2027. If this scenario comes to pass, the wave of cancellations and rate increases that we are seeing now could be just the beginning. Cover image | David Syphers In Xataka | The Government’s plan against the fuel crisis: lower the VAT on gasoline and diesel to 10%

China has been patiently preparing for a major global energy crisis for years. And now it reaps its fruits

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The Third Gulf War is here and the global oil market looks into the abyss. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has unleashed an unprecedented logistical panic and has catapulted the barrel of Brent well above $100. The panic is palpable throughout the Asian continent: The Philippines cuts working hours, Singapore sends its office workers to telework and Thailand intervenes in diesel prices in desperation. Just a few thousand kilometers away, China observes the global chaos with an almost insulting coldness. The Asian giant has not been saved by providence, but by millimetric planning. Just as centuries ago it built a vast stone infrastructure to stop nomadic invasions, Beijing has been building an invisible Great Wall for more than a decade to isolate itself from fossil volatility. The seed of this resistance must be found five years ago. In 2021, during a visit to an oil field, President Xi Jinping ruled that China should keep the “energy rice bowl” firmly in its own hands. According to The Economisttransferring this traditional metaphor (historically used to appeal to food sovereignty) to energy, made clear a state obsession: the country was going to prepare tirelessly for the worst possible scenario. Is patience a good bet? There are several popular proverbs and sayings that say that whoever waits, victory will be sweeter. In the case of China it is a pure and simple pragmatic and geostrategic application. As we analyze in Xatakathis shielding is the direct result of the strategy “Made in China 2025” designed a decade ago. The Chinese government understood that dependence on foreign oil and gas was its greatest military and economic vulnerability. Mass electrification was not an environmental whim, but a matter of national survival. Today, China generates more than a quarter of its electricity with sun and wind, rewriting the world order and dividing the board between the old “petrostates” and the new “electrostates.” But while that transition is complete, Beijing has not neglected the fossil economy. The Chinese model puts raw resilience before the efficiency of Western markets, As a column points out Five Days. The best example is what happened last year. While global markets debated an alleged oil oversupply, China took advantage of the low prices to spend $10 billion buying heavily sanctioned oil from Russia, Venezuela and Iran; a crude oil that, in reality, I did not need immediately. The result of this silent hoarding is that today China has massive Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), estimated between 900 and 1.4 billion barrels. This mattress is enough to cover between 96 and 140 days of your internal demand without caring for a single drop from the outside. The shield in action This long-term preparation has allowed China to deploy an arsenal of almost immediate containment measures since the conflict in the Gulf broke out: Closing energy borders: The first lightning order from the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission was to demand from their state giants of refining (PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC) to immediately suspend gasoline and diesel exports to protect the supply of the domestic market. The “shadow fleet”: Despite the war and the blockade, oil continues to flow to China. Iran is exporting a daily average of 2.1 million barrels using a fleet of old oil tankers without tracking systems that operate outside the US financial system. Land alternatives: To completely avoid the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz, the Asian power is squeezing to the maximum the land pipelines that connect it directly with Russia and Kazakhstan. Renewable bestiality: This is your shield more impenetrable: The price of solar panels and electric cars does not rise when there is a war in the Persian Gulf. In July 2024, China reached its goal of 1,200 GW of wind and solar capacity, achieving it six years ahead of schedule. In addition, new energy vehicles have already exceeded 60% of total car sales in the country by the end of 2025. Megainfrastructures and market reform: To manage the intermittency of renewables, increased their storage capacity by batteries 75% in 2025. Furthermore, the political response does not stop, as detailed ChinaDailyhave announced that the National Energy Administration will launch urgent reforms ahead of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) to create a “unified national energy market” capable of managing the volatility of having so much green energy on the grid. The dominance of uranium: Faced with the need to fuel its 58 operational nuclear reactors and the 27 under construction, Beijing has budgeted about $16 billion for resource storage in 2026. This includes the exploitation of gigantic deposits in the Ordos Desert and the pioneering extraction of uranium from seawater. The small print However, China’s energy “rice bowl” still has cracks. To keep the system afloat, the country remains dependent on an immense, dirty safety net: the coal. In 2024, this mineral supplied 56% of its energy primary and, currently, they have more than 300 plants under construction. As emphasized a report of ChinaPower Projectdespite the pollution, the vast and abundant supply of coal offers Chinese policymakers a true final “safety net” against disruptions from other sources. But the real battle for survival is not only fought in the oil wells, but in the semiconductor laboratories. Although the country manufactured an astronomical 484 billion chips in 2024, still no access to the UVE lithography machines of the European company ASML. However, the Asian giant is finding cracks in the Western blockade. China already has two companies, SMIC and Huali Microelectronics, capable of producing advanced 7-nanometer chips using engineering techniques ‘multiple patterning’ using machines from previous generations. It is a more expensive and less efficient process, but it shows that sanctions only accelerate their quest for sovereignty. The next bottleneck to overcome is chemical. The country depends almost entirely on Japan (specifically from JSR Corporation) to obtain the hyper-specialized photoresist liquids needed in chip lithography. The new Chinese five-year plan has already set a five-year deadline to also break this Japanese monopoly. And while China weaves this net of absolute … Read more

Micron knew that the RAM crisis was going to be great for them. The reality that has gone even better

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As it could not be otherwise, the companies that are benefiting the most from the RAM crisis They are precisely those that have the product and, therefore, they are the ones that set the price. Micron is one of those few companies that is profiting from the excessive demand of this key component for any gadget, a demand caused by the AI ​​fever. The figures from its latest financial report have even exceeded expectations. Although there are some nuances to comment on. Let’s go to trouble. What has happened? Micron just published the results of its second fiscal quarter with numbers that have left analysts speechless. Its revenues have almost tripled those of the previous year, reaching $23.9 billion, well above Wall Street estimateswho expected about 20,000 million. Earnings per share have skyrocketed to $12.20, compared to the $9 projected. And for the third quarter, the company anticipates revenue of approximately $33.5 billion, almost ten points above what the market expected. Those who share the benefit. Artificial intelligence has changed everything in the memory market. The data centers that power AI models require massive amounts of high-performance memory, and the available supply cannot meet that demand. Micron, together with Samsung and SK Hynix, forms the trio that controls practically the entire supply world of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, which are basically one of the key components to run the long-awaited NVIDIA GPUs. Those who buy at any price. Micron’s own CEO, Sanjay Mehrotra, counted to CNBC that the company can only cover between 50% and two-thirds of what its main clients need. Put another way: there is a queue of buyers willing to pay whatever it takes, and Micron simply doesn’t have RAM for everyone. According to SK Group President Chey Tae-won, the global shortage could last another four to five years due to structural bottlenecks in semiconductor production. What’s coming Aware that what is happening now will not last forever, Micron is investing at a speed that has made the market nervous. The company plans to exceed $25 billion in capital spending in 2026 alone, and has already announced that in 2027 that number will rise another $10 billion. Among other operations, it has closed purchasing a plant of Taiwanese Powerchip for $1.8 billion, which will begin producing DRAM wafers in the second half of 2027. The company has also started mass shipments of its new HBM4 memory of 12 layers, which will be directed to the new Vera Rubin platform from NVIDIA. Precisely how much NVIDIA will depend on Micron for this new generation compared to its rivals is the big open question for all investors. Everything is going well for them, but the shares are going down. There has been a bit of a cold reaction in the stock market, as shares have fallen around 5% in the session after the results, despite the fact that the numbers have beaten all forecasts. The reason is the same thing that happened with NVIDIA a few weeks ago: When expectations are very high, even good results can disappoint. From Goldman Sachs they counted that the value could move in a narrow range in the short term after a “very solid quarter with guidance well above consensus, in a context of already elevated expectations.” That has not prevented banks like Wells Fargo or Barclays from updating their upward forecasts to $550 and $670 per share, respectively. The big photo. Micron has accumulated a revaluation of more than 60% so far this year, and has become the most profitable value on the PHLX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index). Mehrotra affirms that Micron is “the invisible layer that powers AI today.” But it seems that the company is slowly losing that cloak of invisibility. In Xataka | NVIDIA has been pining for months to sell its H200 to China: it just received the news it was waiting for

We have been avoiding the definitive energy crisis for months. Iran’s missile at Qatar’s largest gas plant threatens to detonate it

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We had been holding our breath for weeks, assuming the logistical tension in the Strait of Hormuz like the new normal. However, the war has crossed an irreversible red line. We have gone from a trade blockade to the physical destruction of the world’s energy engine, and the consequences are already being felt in the global economy. The impact has been immediate. The price of natural gas in Europe (the TTF reference contract) has shot up 35% in a matter of hours, resurrecting the worst ghosts of the Ukrainian crisis of 2022. The magnitude of the disaster is such that Susan Sakmar, a professor at the University of Houston, warns in Bloomberg that this attack could be “a turning point for the LNG sector, similar to the attack against Nord Stream or perhaps even worse”, as it is a sudden interruption with no signs of a short-term solution. The chronological climb. To understand how we got here we have to look at the chain of events of the last 48 hours. The original trigger, as revealed The Wall Street Journalwas an attack by Israel against the South Pars field, the jewel in the crown of the Iranian energy industry, with the aim of suffocating the sources of financing for the Revolutionary Guard. And it is not just any objective. The analyst Joaquín Coronado emphasizes that South Paris (shared with Qatar, where it is called North Dome) is the largest natural gas field in the world, hosting 10% of global reserves. 70% of Iranian domestic consumption gas comes from there and generates 80% of the Qatari State’s income. A withering response from Tehran. As pointed out Financial TimesIran launched ballistic missiles against the giant Ras Laffan industrial complex in Qatar, the largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility in the world and home to key infrastructure such as Shell’s Pearl GTL plant. State-owned company QatarEnergy confirmed “extensive damage” and fires at its facilities. Panic spread throughout the Persian Gulf. According to Reutersthe Iranian Revolutionary Guard issued public evacuation orders, declaring vital energy facilities in Saudi Arabia (such as the Samref refinery and the Jubail complex), the United Arab Emirates (the Al Hosn gas field) and Qatar as “legitimate targets.” Shortly afterward, Riyadh intercepted missiles aimed at the Saudi capital. The market has felt the blow. Oil prices have gone crazy. As detailed oil price, a barrel of Brent surpassing the barrier of 110-113 dollars, which represents an increase of almost 60% in this month of March. However, the real problem goes beyond the daily price. Martin Senior, of Argus Media, warns of a “new level of impact”. It is no longer just about the logistical closure of the Strait of Hormuz (through which 20% of the world’s oil passes); The problem is that the time to repair these destroyed facilities could last much longer than the war itself. And the worst omens already have figures. As has revealed exclusively in Reuters CEO of QatarEnergy, the Iranian attack has knocked out 17% of the country’s LNG capacity for a period that could last up to five years. The domino effect. This situation is taking third countries on their way. As explained CrownedIraq has suddenly lost 3,100 megawatts of electricity due to the Iranian supply cut, while Türkiye will be forced to compete fiercely for emergency LNG shipments. In Europe, the panic is evident: the bulletin Europe Express of the Financial Times reveals that war has blown up the EU leaders’ summit in Brussels, where debate on how to improve competitiveness has been completely overshadowed by fear of energy bills and domestic pressure on the emissions trading system. Geopolitics to the limit. Diplomacy appears broken and America’s allies are losing patience. According to the Wall Street JournalArab governments are “furious” because they feel that the US and Israel strategy has put a target on their backs. For its part, Al Jazeera includes the statements of the Saudi Foreign MinisterPrince Faisal bin Farhan, who has warned Iran that the Gulf’s patience “is not unlimited” and they reserve the right to take military action. Qatar, for its part, has expelled the Iranian diplomats, giving them 24 hours to leave the country. In the midst of this chaos, Washington’s role is erratic. President Donald Trump went to social media to deny prior knowledge of the Israeli attack on South Paris. However, how to collect WSJ, Trump issued an ultimatum to Tehran: if it attacks Qatar again, the US will “massively blow up the entire” Iranian oilfield. Faced with rising prices, the White House is seeking desperate measures. The column of Javier Blas in Bloomberg reveals a controversial plan of the US Treasury: to intervene directly in the financial markets by betting on the downside (shorting) in oil futures to artificially make gasoline cheaper before the elections. An idea that experts such as the CEO of CME Group describe as a “biblical disaster” that would destroy confidence in the free market. The peripheral context. To get the full picture, you have to look beyond the explosions. Verisk Maplecroft Analyst warn in Reuters that the greatest danger right now is that the attacks will extend to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline or to Red Sea ports. These were the only viable alternative routes to avoid the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil normally transits. In an attempt to cushion the blow domestically, the Trump administration has temporarily suspended the century-old Jones Act (Jones Act) for 60 days, allowing foreign-flagged ships to transport oil and gas between US ports to reduce costs. The dead end. The panorama is bleak. As they reflect on Five Daysthe apparent lightness with which this conflict has developed has dragged us into a dead end. Iran has shown that it does not need to win a conventional war; It is enough for him to set the energetic heart of the planet on fire. Even if a ceasefire were signed tomorrow and ships sailed freely through the Strait of … Read more

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