conflict

China did not intervene in the war to protect Iranian oil. Because your plan is longer than the conflict

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For years, the relationship between China and Iran has been underpinned by a constant oil flow. However, the recent conflict between Iran and Israel caused Beijing He ordered his ships to turn in the Ormuz Strait. A seemingly technical gesture revealed something deeper: the limits of Chinese energy diplomacy. From partner to spectator. The recent climb between Iran and Israel, which included direct attacks and cross reprisalshe tested the link between China and the Islamic Republic. Although a truce promoted by Washington was declared, these weeks the gaze was set on this part of the planet. In that context, the international community looked towards Beijing, waiting for a clear gesture of support or at least mediation. But China opted for a prudent position: verbal sentences, called to dialogue, routine statements in the UN, According to Apnews. No military support, technical assistance, or real involvement. And that caught the attention, especially for what is at stake: between 80% and 90% of the oil that will export ends in Chinese refineries, which represents approximately 1.2 million barrels per day, According to France 24. Even so, Beijing chose diplomatic silence before the conflict. China is not the United States. And it does not intend to be either. While the United States maintains a network of military basesnaval fleets and strategic alliances in the Middle East, China has no comparable presence. Your only regional base It is in Yibutiand his attempts to expand to Oman or the Arab Emirates have been stopped, in part, by Washington’s pressure. As He explained The Interpreter, China has opted for a non -intervention policy. Its diplomacy in the region is pragmatic, transactional, guided by commercial interests rather than ideological affinities. “China’s footprint in the Gulf is commercial, it is not ready for combat,” said Craig Singleton, of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. For his part, William Figueroa, expert in China-Iran of the University of Groningen, It has been overwhelming In The Washington Post: “China has no capacity to militarily influence this conflict. Nor does it benefit from a broader war.” Although it is a matter of pragmatism. From Beijing, Zhu Feng, Dean of International Relations at Nanjing University, He has remarked In AP News that volatility in the Middle East “directly affects China’s economic security.” However, that does not mean that it will be absent. His greater diplomatic letter In the region was the 2023 agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, negotiated in Beijing. Although he was read as a Chinese geopolitical triumph, The Interpretter He has nuanced: “The distension had already been brewing with the help of Kuwait, Iraq and Oman. China simply gave him the final touch.” That discreet presence in the diplomatic field contrasts with its constancy in another key front: the energy. China has continued buying Iranian raw at reduced prices, Taking advantage of Tehran isolation For US sanctions. As has reported on their networks The journalist, Bachar el Halabi after the recent US bombings against Iranian nuclear facilities, oil exports to China did not stop, and in fact, they reached record levels. However, the relationship is fragile. In 2020, Iranian president Mahmud Ahmadineyad criticized the agreement of 25 -year cooperation between the two countries for considering it opaque and suspicious. Rumors about alleged Chinese military bases in Iran They circulated in the local pressfeeding distrust. When there is a dependency. This week, Reuters He has revealed that Washington has authorized that ethane cargoes – a key natural gas for the petrochemical industry – are loaded in US ports to China, as long as they do not end in Iranian territory. The operation, according to the letter released by the Office of Industry and Security of the Department of Commerce, is approved under the condition that the product is not discharged or redirected towards Iran. It may seem a bureaucratic technicalism, but it really says much more. This type of movements exposes how the United States continues to set the rules of the global energy game, even when it comes to exchanges between its two main strategic rivals. For China, the message is clear: its energy trade with Iran is still under surveillance. And for Iran, the warning is even more evident: Any attempt to avoid economic isolation, even indirectly, can be blocked from afar. The dragon rhetoric. Beijing wants to be a global referee, but he is behaving as a spectator. A recent example is the Defense Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (OCS), held in Qingdao, where Chinese Minister Dong Jun spoke of a world in “chaos and instability,” According to Deutsche Welle. The meeting was attended by their counterparts from Russia, Iran, Pakistan and Belarus. China projected symbolic power, but did not offer concrete solutions. In fact, even when they will threatened to close the Ormuz Strait – where 20% of the world crude, vital for China – pekin transits only the diplomatic tone, without major consequences. And, as multiple analysts explain, China has little appetite for risk. It is not yet willing to “risk the neck” in others. As It has concluded Craig Singleton in AP News, “When missiles fly, the so promoted ‘Strategic Association’ of China with Iran is reduced to communications. Beijing wants Iranian Iranian oil and headlines as a peacemaker, but let Washington load with the risks of hard power.” A strategic patience. China remains a key actor of the global economic order, but its energy diplomacy does not obey improvisation or shyness. On the contrary, its caution in the Middle East can be a symptom of a deeper strategy: observe, resist external pressure and prepare the terrain before intervening seriously. Beijing is not dragged by the logic of immediate power. He knows that in regions as volatile as Middle East, the cost of acting too soon may be greater than waiting. His silence, far from being absence, can be part of a longer play. Because oil unites, yes, but it also marks the rhythm of a power that is not in a hurry, … Read more

There are almost no images of the conflict between Israel and Iran. That is why we are starting to generate them with ia

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At the user level, the popularization of artificial intelligence is leading to everyday uses (of cheat until helping us Organize the day) already debates that affect us all (ecological, labor and Ethics). But its use is also in the hands of governments and, when they conflict, artificial intelligence becomes a valuable weapon of soft war and propaganda on a global scale. He Wask between Iran and Israel He is leaving us a few examples. The images about these lines are not real. They are generated by AI. When the Gulf War in 1991 It was said that it would be the first war that we would see live, and now we are prolonging that same idea but taken to the extreme … and seasoned with manipulation of information through artificial intelligences. Images and videos disseminated in social networks and messaging apps, where we can see live bombings, but where not everything is real. These are images of some assumptions F-35 demolished by the Iranian army, data backed by the news of the country. Israel denied it quickly. And you just have to take a look at the second photo to see that it is false: what absurd size does that hunt have? And the buildings in the lower corner are smaller than people. That did not prevent thousands of people from spreading the images in their accounts, giving them by legitimate. And also videos. The arrival of the potent I see 3 Google has helped generate videos in line with these photos. The Tehran Times, means of Iranian communication, disseminates videos where it is presumed to gigantic missiles that do not exist. How do we know? I have left the seeing water mark in the video. Something similar happened with a supposed bombardment in Tel Avivwhose images are easy to identify as generated by AI. The person responsible for all of them is the account 3AMelyonnwhich is defined as “artificial intelligence resistance”, and whose videos are also spread on Telegram. With the permission of the high positions. These actions are not always a matter of disinformation in networks. Iran’s supreme leader, Sayyid Ali Khamenei, tweet images of Iranian missiles to Israel generated by chatgptand the Israeli defense minister generates Genuine visual garbage (which The Anglo -Saxons call ‘Ai Slop’) of propaganda type of which Facebook and other networks crowd. It is not strange that the leaders of both sides join the iconographic war: it is a way not only to spread harmful propaganda for the other side, but to supply the informative limitations suffered by citizens. Please, only AI. In fact, there is another reason for the dissemination of propaganda through AI to be backed by the respective governments of Iran and Israel: when citizens spread images of killings in the cities, it was feared that with these videos they would give strategic clues to the other side. AI is a way to ensure that no one takes advantage of those videos. According to 404 mediaIsrael requested from its citizens in a statement by social networks: “The enemy examines these documents to improve their objectives. Be responsible, do not share locations on the network.” AI thus becomes a tool to share propaganda that is not strategically sensitive. How to identify artificial intelligence. The companies that create the generative tools are responsible for marking the results that their IASs yield. In addition to easily visible and editable water marks, Google AI includes an invisible, Synthidbut it has a problem set: you have to download the video that may appear, for example, on social networks, and then upload it to the Synthid platform. They are minutes, perhaps lost hours, during which perhaps the false video has reached millions of people. A very valuable time in terms of propaganda. Header | 404Media In Xataka | Welcome to the “mcdonaldization” of AI: we have cheap chatbots for mass, and ultra -premium products for the elite

If something did not need the Ukraine War it was to enliven the conflict in an occupied nuclear power plant. Russia thinks different

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The paradox of the largest nuclear power plant in Europe is that it has been closed for three years and everyone wants to “open.” Without going far, the United States was the last nation to hint that it would be delighted to restart her. The problem is that it is in Ukraine, although Taken by Russiaand in the middle of a war whose end does not stick. Moscow knows that he has an energy pressure tool, but some satellite images have revealed much more. The space betrays. The story took this week The New York Times. Through new satellite images analyzed by Greenpeace and verified by the American environment, it has been revealed that Russia is building more than 80 kilometers of electric lines in the south busy of Ukraine with the aim of connecting the Zaporiyia nuclear plant to its own energy network. Covert reopening. This maneuver, until now without Russian official confirmation, represents the clearest signal until the intention of Moscow’s intention to reactivate and exploit the largest central in Europe, forcibly in the first bars of the invasion. Although its six reactors were gradually turned off (the last in 2023) for security reasons and due to nearby fightingRussia seems determined to return it to operationchallenging the warnings of international experts that consider that operating it under these conditions would be a nuclear risk first order. The Russian Plan seeks surround the current damage In the old 750 kilowol lines that connected the central with the Ukrainian network, two of which are going through areas under Kyiv control, and two others that have been useless or deteriorated by the war. Unprecedented use. If specified, this would be the First time in history in that a power at war restarts and uses an occupied nuclear plant for its own energy benefit. Russia, through the state Rosatom, has openly shown Your ambition: its general director He said recently that the dream of reactivating Zaporiyia is still alive and that there is already a technical plan to return the plant to full capacity. The Russian intention does not seem to maintain territorial control of the complex, but to integrate it directly into the national electricity network, possibly and According to the Timesconnecting it with the Russian region of Rostov, which would require even more infrastructure. As we said at the beginning, the United States proposed a peace plan that included the return of the plant to Ukraine under international management (specifically American), In an attempt to avoid its use as a geopolitical tool. Russia He rejected sharply said option. Various risks. No doubt, we don’t talk about simply pressing the “ignition” button. In fact, the possibility of reactivating the central has awakened alarms Among nuclear experts. Since his shot, much of the Ukrainian technical staff has fled, leaving the plant No qualified operators. In addition, the Kajovka dam hole months ago (widely attributed to Russia), it eliminated the main source of water from the reactor refrigeration system and spent fuel, raising thermal and fusion risks in case of a failure. For its part, the Minister of Energy of Ukraine He warned that any Russian unilateral attempt to restart reactors could have unpredictable consequences. To all this is added The possibility of sabotage, military attacks or operational failures in a plant already located in an active combat zone. The consequences of a nuclear escape would not be limited to the region: the impact on the environment, human health and the energy stability of Europe would be unpredictable (and possibly devastating). A high voltage piece. As we have coming countingthe status of the Zaporiyia plant has become a power sheet in the peace negotiations. While Russia progresses (slowly) in her Technical reconnectionThe United States and its allies press to include their status in the terms of any future solution. The satellite images Recent, which reveal transmission lines advancing near the town of Shevchenko and towards a key substation linked to the complex, confirm that Moscow not only wants to retain control, but to turn the plant into a Active source of energy for your network. If you want also, snapshots from space reveal a deeper strategy: to consolidate the economic and energy control of the territories occupied as part of a Possible post -stroke. However, any attempt by Moscow to reactivate the plant without international consensus not only defies the rules of war law, but also brings us an unpublished threshold of nuclear insecurity. Image | Planet Labs, Via Greenpeace In Xataka | The largest nuclear power plant in Europe has been closed by the war in Ukraine. Now the United States wants to reopen In Xataka | We already know a hole that Russia has left in Ukraine: the Chernobil shield is still open and there is no money to close it

If China invades you will be an eternal conflict

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Just a month ago a kind of Leave Vú On the island of Taiwan: it had dawned with a Fleet from China in front of its coasts, again. Beijing repeated the strategy once again, and the enclave then made a decision: Activate a plan B Making the greatest simulation of its history, an invasion disguised as maneuver that lasted 14 days to see how far their defenses would go. The island has now decided to adopt another strategy by looking at Ukraine. Survival and resistance. I told this week in Exclusive the Wall Street Journal. The Taiwan government has initiated an urgent and deep transformation of its armed forces in the face of the growing concern that China can launch an invasion before 2027. The main change in the strategy lies in the fact that the objective is not to defeat Beijing in a direct confrontation, but to resist sufficient time to intervene, for example, the United States. PUELCOESPIN. To do this, Taipéi leaves his traditional preparation for conventional war and adopts An asymmetric strategy Known, according to the newspaper, as a “porcupine strategy”, designed to inflict such a high cost to the invader that a attack dissucted or at least stops it. This involves deploying multiple coastal layers, reorienting its navy towards coastal operations, reorganizing its army, increasing its anti -men and anti -aircraft missile arsenals and multiplying the acquisition of drones, with the intention of Replicate the Ukrainian model in front of Russia. Plus: has founded a Specialized Academy in training with drones and modernized the formation of their troops to operate sophisticated weapons systems in real combat conditions. Inspiration in Ukraine. As we said, the example of Ukraine has served Taiwan to learn fundamental lessons, such as the speed with which ammunition reserves are exhausted in a prolonged war. However, the insular geography of the enclave would make extremely difficult to receive external supplies in case of blocking. Therefore, their authorities insist that Increase missile reserves It is a priority. This change of doctrine, however, faces other obstacles. The Minister of Defense, Wellington Koo (one of the few civilians to hold the position), must break a military mentality centered for decades in the conventional war. There is more, since it adds Trump’s pressurewhich has required Taiwan to raise his military spending until 10% of GDPa difficult goal to achieve for a country that for years has maintained spending around 2%. President Lai Ching-you has committed to increase it to 3% Before the end of the year, although it faces a parliamentary opposition that prefers a more conciliatory policy with Beijing. Finally, there is a political paradox: the small and cheap weapons typical of an asymmetric war (such as drones and missiles portable) are less visible as Commitment sample Budget, despite its greatest efficiency. The “military” vs. society. He WSJ added Another “but” very important to the new strategy. Beyond the doctrine and weapons, the biggest Achilles heel of the Taiwanese defense is its personnel scarcity. With a goal of 215,000 troops, the army had only covered 78% of its places At the end of last year. Demography It does not help: Taiwan has one of the lowest birth rates in the world, and its youth (educated in decades of economic growth and pacification) shows little interest in the military career. The “mili.” The authorities have extended the mandatory service four to twelve monthssalaries have risen up to $ 400 a month and have modernized military accommodations. At the same time, recruitment campaigns that appeal to patriotism and youth idealism have been launched. It is also reversing to improve the mobilization of reserves, a key component to face a prolonged conflict. The formation of the conscripts has changed radically: now Soldiers are trained In the use of drones, Stinger missiles and defense maneuvers in realistic scenarios, abandoning the old training routine in contact without contact with advanced armament. The importance of the strategic alliance. Although the Taiwanese plan presupposes that the United States will go to its defense, that support is not insured. After seeing how Trump reduced the support to Ukraine, Taipéi seeks convince Washington that your defensive effort justifies an eventual intervention. Bilateral military cooperation is still under development and, According to analystsa lot is missing for both forces to execute real joint operations. Hence the agreement that We count a few months ago And that Taiwanese officials admit that they have no experience in modern war and need to learn from those who do, that is, from American army. However, the Pentagon has not made public comments on the degree of joint preparation. In that sense, the island seeks not only to equip yourself, but also coordinate doctrinal and operationally With Washington, aware that his survival could depend on both his own advances and on the political will of the United States to intervene the time. Between urgency and reality. In short, the success or failure of the new Taiwanese defense strategy will depend not only on available time and military muscle, but also on internal support and political will both local and foreign. Taiwan is trying to reinvent its defensive capacity with unprecedented speed, in a context of growing regional pressure, low war experience, demographic challenges and political polarization. Ultimately, its objective is not (it has never been at all) to win a war against China, but to make it expensive enough, slow and painful so that, in essence, it never begins. Image | 總統府 In Xataka | Taiwan prepares for the worst and is already making the greatest simulation in its history: a 14 -day Chinese invasion In Xataka | A fleet of Chinese ships Roda Taiwan right now. A document explains the US plan if the situation goes to greater

They are waters in conflict with Spain

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Morocco has granted the Israeli company Newmed Energy a hydrocarbon exploitation license on an extension of 34,000 square kilometers in the Atlantic, off the coast of the Western Sahara. Why is a problem. Because the explorations conflict with the maritime sovereignty of the region. Claimed by Morocco, they are legally territorial waters of Spain, from the Spanish point of view. The Moroccan decision This complex relationship tensions even moreplay disputes about the Western Sahara and reinforces the strategic ties between Morocco and Israel, which have been narrowing in recent years, despite the geopolitical concerns derived from the Gaza War. The details. Israeli company Newmed Energy and Moroccan Adarco Energy have obtained an official rabat license To explore and exploit 17 maritime blocks in front of the Saharawi coasts, between the cities of Boujdour and Dajla. Newmed and Adarco possess, each, 37.5% of the permits, while the remaining 25% is from the Moroccan state company onhym. It is not the first Moroccan concession to Israeli companies. In 2021, Rabat granted licenses on another 109,900 km² to Ratio Petroleum and Navitas Petroleum. The conflict. The area granted is only 200 km from the Canary Islands, within an exclusive economic zone (ZEE) that Morocco established unilaterally in 2020, without international recognition. Both the Canary Islands and the Government of Spain have repeatedly stated that this delimitation lacks legal validity and overlaps with the Spanish Zee internationally recognized since 1981. The Israel factor. The concession is to reflect the approach between Morocco and Israel after Abraham’s agreements of 2020. and despite Gaza’s War. Through companies such as Newmed Energy, Israel seeks to position themselves as a key energy actor in the Mediterranean and North Africa. For Morocco, the alliance offers strategic, technological and diplomatic advantages, especially Before the Polisario Front (seeking the independence of the western Sahara) and Algeria. Now Spain will have to decide how it responds to these maritime and energy audacies. Images | Newmed Energy In Xataka | When it seemed that the controversy of underwater mining was appealing, the discovery of black oxygen threatens to reactivate it

In 1972 the US returned to Japan the islands that China claims since 1895. A buoy recalled that the conflict is not over

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Year 2018. A buoy appears in the exclusive economic zone of Japan in the Eastern China Sea. The Boya, strategically installed, is near the Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku in Japan), and carries the Chinese “flag”. Since then, the buoys have been multiplying in a clear message to the past. The islands, according to China, They have belonged for centuries. The historical context. The tensions between China and Japan by the Diaoyu Islands (called Senkaku in the Japanese nation) They date back to the nineteenth centurywhen Japan attached them in 1895 after the First Sin-Japanese War. Later, at the end of World War II, The United States administered the islands until 1972, when it returned them to Japanwhich It generated protests from China and Taiwanthat claim them based on historical records dating from the Ming dynasty. Not just that. The dispute intensified in 2012 when Japan nationalized some of the islands, causing strong reactions in China, manifestations and deterioration in bilateral relations. Over the years, military presence and maritime patrols in the area have been increasing, with frequent incidents between Chinese and Japanese ships, which maintains the dispute as a voltage focus on East Asia. The case of the Boya (s) has raised tensions. A diplomatic gesture in a context with tensions. Last Monday, China withdrew one of the buoys that had placed in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of Japan Near the disputed Senkaku Islands, a movement that seemed to be able to pave the path for the summit among the leaders of both countries this year. The Japan Coast Guard confirmed that the Boya, installed in July 2023 within the Japanese EEZ in the Eastern China Sea, It was withdrawn and is now in a new location outside the Japanese jurisdiction. As we said, The installation of buoys in waters close to the Senkaku is part of a Chinese strategy to reaffirm his territorial claim on the islands, known in the nation as Diaoyu. Tokyo has repeatedly protested against these actionsdemanding the withdrawal of the devices. What does China say. China’s Ministry of Foreign Relations assured that The buoy had “completed its task on the site”suggesting that his retirement was voluntary and for technical purposes. Beijing argues that these devices They only have hydrometeorological endsand that serve to monitor ocean currents and climate, although analysts warn that the information collected, such as water temperature, could have military applications. Impact on relationships. The withdrawal of this last buoy is produced in A context of diplomatic approach between China and Japan. In December, the visit of the Japanese Minister of Foreign Affairs, Takeshi Iwayaya, to Beijing resulted Treated waters of the Fukushima nuclear plant. In fact, these gestures are those that have promoted the possibility of a summit between Japanese prime minister, Shigeru Ihiba, and President Xi Jinping, a summit that could be done in May. One of the buoys placed by China And after the retreat of the buoy, more tension. However, the situation in the Eastern China Sea is far from finishing: in the same 2023, ships of the Chinese coast guard were sighted near the Senkaku for 353 days, a historical record. In addition, a few hours ago the Japanese coast guard reported that Four Chinese government boats briefly ventured into Japanese territorial waters. According to Chinese authorities, these operations seek to protect China’s rights and interests in the area in accordance with the law. There are more. In December 2023, Japan detected a new buoy near Yonaguni Islandin the southwest of its territory, and demanded its withdrawal. Beijing has always rejected demand, insisting that its use is strictly meteorological. The chief secretary of the Japanese Cabinet, Yoshimasa Hayashi, has avoided specular about the reasons behind the retreat of the buoy in the Senkaku, but reaffirmed that Japan will continue to demand the elimination of the one located in Yonaguni. Distance Japan from USA. Boya’s retreat could be interpreted as an effort from China to improve its ties with Tokyo and at the same time weakens the alliance between Japan and the United States. No doubt, the growing rivalry between Beijing and Washington has intensified after the victory of Donald Trump in the presidential elections, which has led China to search New diplomatic strategies in the region. Meanwhile, in Washington, Ishiba and Donald Trump held their first meeting last Fridaywhere they reaffirmed their commitment to deal with “Chinese aggression” in the southern and east seas of China. In a joint statement, both leaders They defended the stability in the Taiwan Strait and supported Taiwan’s participation In international organizations. China reacted with indignation, qualifying these statements as an open interference in their internal affairsand presented diplomatic protests against the United States and Japan. So? In this “Take and Daca” between the two nations, where there is a step forward and then retreat, the distancing seems to be maintained. Although the withdrawal of the buoy near the Senkaku could be interpreted as a gesture of approach between Beijing and Tokyo, the reality in the Eastern China Sea remains marked by the territorial dispute. The constant presence of Chinese ships in the area and The refusal to remove the buoy in Yonaguni They do not leave many doubts, and suggest that China is still committed to strengthening its control over these strategic waters. Image | Al Jazeera, GNOLIZXChinese Academy of Science In Xataka | South Korea has found a great structure in the waters that is disputed with China. It is the second time, and Beijing does not deny it In Xataka | If China is shown again in front of Taiwan in the next two years a surprise will be found: the US Army

Colombia reverses conflict with the US over deportations and Trump lifts sanctions

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The White House said this Sunday that Colombia backtracked and agreed to accept its deported citizens on military flights, after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose sanctions. The Trump administration will suspend planned tariffs and most sanctions, according to a White House statement. Minutes later, the chancellor of Colombia, Luis Gilberto Murillo confirmed that his country considers “the impasse with the United States has been overcome” and that he accepts the terms of Trump’s repatriation policy. “We will continue to receive Colombian men and women who return as deportees,” the diplomat said in a press conference. The White House said in a statement that Colombia, Latin America’s fourth largest economy, agreed to “accept without restrictions all illegal aliens from Colombia returning from the United States.”even on US military aircraft, without limitations or delays.” Petro upset Trump “Today’s events make clear to the world that the United States is respected again,” the statement added. He added that “President Trump will continue to fiercely protect the sovereignty” of the United States and that he hopes that all nations “will cooperate fully to accept the deportation of their citizens who are illegally” in the country. Colombian President Gustavo Petro, the first leftist in power in the South American country, had angered Trump by refusing to accept military planes with Colombians deported from the United States. Petro said his country would welcome the migrants back, but “with dignity,” even on civilian planes. Keep reading:• Trump imposes tariffs and other sanctions on Colombia after Petro’s refusal to receive deportees• Petro offers presidential plane for the return of migrants from the US and calls on Celac• Tom Homan on mass deportation: “ICE agents from all over the country will be on the streets from the beginning”

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